1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 3.045 to 3.054, with a 0.30% increase on the 22nd and 0.00% on the 23rd; the monthly IV increased from 18.07% to 21.49%, and the next - month IV decreased from 18.96% to 18.43% [1] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 84.80% and the 2 - year reaching up to 91.00% [1] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 85.59 [2] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 4.604 to 4.622, with a 0.33% increase on the 22nd and 0.06% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 18.21% to 16.03%, and the next - month IV decreased slightly from 19.78% to 19.51% [3] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 63.70% and the 2 - year reaching up to 75.20% [3] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 96.85 [5] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 4.747 to 4.762, with a 0.36% increase on the 22nd and - 0.04% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 19.54% to 17.19%, and the next - month IV decreased from 20.66% to 20.39% [9] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 68.50% and the 2 - year reaching up to 81.70% [9] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 94.82 [11] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 7.261 to 7.277, with a - 1.30% decrease on the 19th, 0.36% increase on the 22nd, and 0.22% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 24.13% to 16.69%, and the next - month IV increased from 25.49% to 25.99% [13] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 70.60% and the 2 - year reaching up to 80.10% [13] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 106.94 [16] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 2.903 to 2.906, with a - 0.34% decrease on the 19th, 0.69% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.58% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 23.80% to 16.57%, and the next - month IV decreased from 26.02% to 25.31% [21] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 65.70% and the 2 - year reaching up to 77.00% [21] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 102.72 [24] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 3.062 to 3.093, with a - 0.16% decrease on the 19th, 0.65% increase on the 22nd, and 0.36% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 37.86% to 30.72%, and the next - month IV decreased from 42.49% to 41.28% [25] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 91.50% and the 2 - year reaching up to 95.70% [25] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 97.74 [29] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 3.475 to 3.494, with a 0.38% increase on the 19th, 0.55% on the 22nd, and 0.00% on the 23rd; the monthly IV increased from 24.53% to 25.27%, and the next - month IV increased from 27.03% to 28.34% [35] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 70.60% and the 2 - year reaching up to 83.20% [35] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 96.93 [38] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 1.431 to 1.475, with a - 1.31% decrease on the 19th, 3.35% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.27% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 44.82% to 41.63%, and the next - month IV decreased from 49.19% to 48.22% [42] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 90.30% and the 2 - year reaching up to 94.20% [42] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 94.59 [45] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 1.398 to 1.442, with a - 1.20% decrease on the 19th, 3.51% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.35% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 46.57% to 41.58%, and the next - month IV decreased from 50.41% to 47.52% [49] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 87.30% and the 2 - year reaching up to 94.20% [49] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 93.04 [52] 3.10 300 Index - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 4501.920 to 4519.778, with a 0.08% increase on the 19th, 0.46% on the 22nd, and - 0.06% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 21.19% to 20.20%, and the next - month IV increased from 20.05% to 20.54% [56] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 83.00% and the 2 - year reaching up to 86.90% [56] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 95.20 [63] 3.11 1000 Index - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 7438.189 to 7408.069, with a - 0.51% decrease on the 19th, 0.69% increase on the 22nd, and - 1.09% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased slightly from 27.67% to 27.93%, and the next - month IV increased from 25.77% to 26.92% [64] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 74.20% and the 2 - year reaching up to 80.50% [64] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 106.39 [67] 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 2909.744 to 2919.515, with a - 0.11% decrease on the 19th, 0.43% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.09% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 20.74% to 19.89%, and the next - month IV increased from 57.44% to 58.30% [68] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 83.60% and the 2 - year reaching up to 92.40% [68] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 92.99 [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Argentina's temporary cancellation of agricultural export taxes will lead to a significant short - term increase in the export of soybean and related products, likely alleviating the previously worried tight supply situation in the Chinese market in Q1 2026 [7][10] - If China does not purchase US soybeans, the US soybean export demand will be impacted, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure [9][10] - It is advisable to be cautious about the subsequent basis pressure of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal, and domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil [10] - The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will squeeze the US soybean export market, and the US soybean price may test a short - term low [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Argentina's Reason for Temporary Cancellation of Agricultural Product Export Taxes - After the political setback of President Milei's party in the local elections in Buenos Aires Province in early September, the Argentine peso exchange rate plummeted. To attract dollars and increase the supply of dollars in the domestic market to ease the depreciation pressure of the peso, the government decided to cancel the export tax on soybeans and their products from September 22 to October 31 [1] Assessment of China's Soybean Supply Situation - As of the week of September 10, 2025, Argentina's 24/25 annual soybean cumulative sales volume was 31.89 million tons, accounting for 62.6% of the expected output of 50.9 million tons, with 19.01 million tons unsold. The short - term supply of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal in the international market is expected to increase [3] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean crushing volume was 23.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (1.5%). Based on the estimated monthly crushing volume of 3.8 million tons from September to December, the remaining exportable volume is about 3.8 million tons [3] - The USDA estimates Brazil's 24/25 annual soybean output at 169 million tons. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean crushing volume decreased by 1.45 million tons (4.5%) year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 1.81 million tons (2.4%) year - on - year. The remaining exportable volume is about 20 million tons [4] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean export volume was 3.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons (5.5%). After the cancellation of the export tax, the total soybean export volume is expected to increase. It is assumed that the export volume will reach 3.8 million tons in October, and about 90% will be exported to China [4] - Considering the 2 - month shipping time from Brazil and Argentina to China, the monthly average arrival volume in Q4 2025 is expected to be 8.5 - 9 million tons, and in Q1 2026, it is expected to be 3.5 - 4 million tons. Even without purchasing US soybeans, China's soybean supply gap in Q1 2026 is likely to disappear [7] China's Non - Purchase of New US Soybean Crops - The USDA estimates the US 25/26 annual soybean output at 117 million tons, with an expected export volume of 45.85 million tons (39% of the output). Historically, nearly half of US soybean exports went to China. As of September 11, China's purchase volume of US soybeans was zero. If China does not purchase, the US soybean export demand will be affected, and the inventory pressure will increase, leading to a short - term downward pressure on prices [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Last week, the Fed implemented a risk - management rate cut, and Powell's cautious stance showed that inflation pressure still exists, and the geopolitical game situation is difficult to resolve. Attention should also be paid to the development of issues such as the US government shutdown and the Fed's independence. The demand for gold ETFs has increased rapidly. The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term caution is required. Tonight, attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in September and Powell's speech on the economic outlook [1] Summary by Related Information Fed Officials' Views - Fed's Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts and expects only one rate cut this year; Musalem thinks the room for further rate cuts is limited and will not support further rate cuts if inflation risks increase; Harker believes that policy restrictions should be lifted very cautiously, and his estimate of the neutral interest rate is relatively high; Milan believes that the appropriate interest rate is in the middle area of 2% and does not support adjusting the 2% inflation target [2] Fed Interest Rate Probability Forecast - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3% [2] Gold ETF Position - The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 6.01 tons compared with the previous day, and the current holdings are 1000.57 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022 [2]

Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies. For precious metals, the mid - term upward trend remains, but short - term caution is advised. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with various investment suggestions for each [1][2]. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The bearish trend persists, with geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruptions from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. It is recommended to hold short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur demand declines, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure. It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak - side oscillation, with potential price fluctuations due to geopolitical situations [19]. - **Asphalt**: Although crude oil prices are falling, asphalt shows relatively small declines. With increased pre - holiday terminal demand in the north and inventory reduction, the futures price shows a strong - side oscillation [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply and demand improve marginally, and the import cost expectation is positive. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21]. Metals - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, but the inventory inflection point has not appeared. There is resistance at the March high, and the pre - holiday inventory and spot feedback should be monitored [3]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustment increasing costs, showing stronger resilience [4]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity hits a new high, and the inventory is rising. The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to reach the support level around 2,830 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME and domestic inventories are both decreasing. Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to short on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals improve in the short term, but the external market is under pressure. The price is expected to rebound with resistance [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply disruption eases, and the overall trend is weak [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. - **Coke**: There is a game between price cuts and increases. The inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The production increases slightly, and the inventory rises. It is recommended to go long on dips [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand and production are increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the "anti - involution" context [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The demand is okay, and the supply recovers to a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price may face a correction, but there may be a phased repair opportunity if it stabilizes at the support level [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply surplus expectation remains, and the demand increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the month - spread may widen [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakens, and the PTA processing margin repair space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory reduction [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new - device expectation and weak external sentiment put pressure on the price. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Argentina's export tax cancellation affects the market. The short - term market may oscillate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for soybean meal [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Argentina's policy changes the market sentiment. In the long - term, considering the biodiesel policy, it is advisable to buy on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The international rapeseed supply is seasonally loose, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The oil - meal ratio is expected to rise in the short - term [36]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. The futures price may run weakly at the bottom [38]. - **Cotton**: The new - cotton production may be high, and the demand support is limited. After the price break - down, short - term observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic market focuses on the next - season's output [41]. - **Apples**: The supply lacks positive drivers, and the short - term price is expected to decline [42]. - **Timber**: The supply may remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The price increase power is insufficient [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the supply is loose. The operation suggestion is to observe or trade in the oscillation range [44]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is weak, and the price increase is difficult to implement. The盘面 may return to the downward channel [18]. - **Stock Index**: The macro - risk preference is high, and the market style is recommended to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and moderately allocate the cyclical style [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The debt risk is under control, and the liquidity is expected to be abundant. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a -1.30% drop on the 18th, -0.10% on the 19th, and a 0.30% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 17.80% - 19.45%, and the next month IV from 18.87% - 20.13% [1] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.30% - 76.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 66.20% - 86.00% [1] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price rose gradually, with a -1.27% drop on the 18th, a 0.22% increase on the 19th, and a 0.33% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 17.76% - 18.21%, and the next month IV from 19.55% - 20.47% [3] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 62.40% - 74.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 66.60% - 84.50% [3] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased steadily, with a -1.42% drop on the 18th, a 0.32% increase on the 19th, and a 0.36% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 18.46% - 19.73%, and the next month IV from 20.50% - 21.64% [9] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 63.20% - 82.60%, and the next month IV quantiles were 70.30% - 86.80% [9] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price had minor fluctuations, with a 0.14% increase on the 18th, a -1.30% drop on the 19th, and a 0.36% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 22.20% - 24.13%, and the next month IV from 25.49% - 25.82% [13] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 59.10% - 80.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 76.70% - 87.50% [13] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.05% drop on the 18th, a -0.34% drop on the 19th, and a 0.69% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 20.78% - 24.98%, and the next month IV from 25.90% - 48.50% [19] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.70% - 86.20%, and the next month IV quantiles were 76.70% - 87.30% [19] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.67% drop on the 18th, a -0.16% drop on the 19th, and a 0.65% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 34.48% - 38.92%, and the next month IV from 42.19% - 43.81% [23] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 74.20% - 92.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 90.70% - 96.40% [23] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased steadily, with a -1.00% drop on the 18th, a 0.38% increase on the 19th, and a 0.55% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 23.77% - 25.70%, and the next month IV from 27.03% - 27.77% [32] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 64.40% - 85.00%, and the next month IV quantiles were 77.60% - 90.60% [32] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased significantly, with a 0.69% increase on the 18th, a -1.31% drop on the 19th, and a 3.35% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 45.63% - 50.03%, and the next month IV from 50.07% - 54.41% [39] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 81.60% - 94.20%, and the next month IV quantiles were 87.70% - 96.60% [39] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased significantly, with a 0.64% increase on the 18th, a -1.20% drop on the 19th, and a 3.51% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 38.30% - 49.22%, and the next month IV from 48.55% - 52.77% [46] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 83.60% - 95.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 70.60% - 93.60% [46] 3.10 CSI 300 Index - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased steadily, with a -1.16% drop on the 18th, a 0.08% increase on the 19th, and a 0.46% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 17.81% - 21.19%, and the next month IV from 20.05% - 21.24% [52] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 61.60% - 86.90%, and the next month IV quantiles were 64.40% - 85.00% [52] 3.11 CSI 1000 Index - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.04% drop on the 18th, a -0.51% drop on the 19th, and a 0.69% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 19.76% - 28.60%, and the next month IV from 25.77% - 27.61% [60] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 26.50% - 80.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 56.70% - 85.00% [60] 3.12 SSE 50 Index - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.35% drop on the 18th, a -0.11% drop on the 19th, and a 0.43% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 20.16% - 20.74%, and the next month IV from 57.39% - 80.72% [65] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 74.20% - 99.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 74.60% - 99.10% [65]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate varies widely. Mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, and domestic peak - season demand is weak, dragging down cotton prices. After the short - term breakdown, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm is fast this year, and the market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. - Apple: The futures price fluctuated. The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples is good, and the price of early - maturing apples is high. However, the supply - side lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the short term [4]. - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber: The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there are typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. - Paper pulp: The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply is relatively loose while the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [7]. - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders is weak. The peak - season demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is small. The short - term price increase momentum is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. Summary by Commodity Cotton - Spot trading was weak, and new cotton pre - sales were good. The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the harvest probability was high, possibly exceeding 700 tons. Mills were cautious about purchases, and peak - season demand was weak, dragging down prices. After the breakdown, wait and see [2]. Sugar - In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, the sales rhythm was fast, and the market focused on the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. Apple - The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples was good, and the price of early - maturing apples was high. The supply - side lacked bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. The short - term futures price is expected to decline [4]. 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber - The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period, and there were typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. Wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. Paper pulp - The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply was relatively loose while the demand was average. Wait and see or trade within a range [7]. Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The supply was expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders was weak. The peak - season demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was small. The short - term price increase momentum was insufficient, and it was advisable to wait and see [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Stock index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending September 19, the stock index rebounded slightly after a brief shock last week, with some indices hitting new highs, but individual stock performance diverged. The risk - free rate has rebounded, but the capital side remains loose, and trading volume and margin trading leverage continue to rise. Foreign investors may still have a high level of attention to the A - share market, and foreign futures member seats are still in the stage of increasing positions, indicating that market risk appetite may still be high [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 7 points [1]. - In terms of the term structure, the discount of stock index futures narrowed rapidly last week, and the near - month contracts of IF, IH, and IC all showed premiums, indicating strong bullish sentiment. However, the December contracts of IC and IM still had a large discount [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.45% last week, with profits coming from opening and closing a long position in TF on Wednesday. In the long - term, fixed - asset investment and social retail consumption were both lower than expected, and the overall economic data in August exerted significant pressure on stock index futures, while the rebound of treasury bond futures was not significant. In the short - term, the continuous decline of the US dollar index increased the contribution of the exchange rate to stock index futures. Currently, the capital side remains relatively loose, the margin trading balance remains high, and the overall market risk appetite remains high [1]. - In terms of open interest, the open interest of IC and IM decreased marginally, while that of IF and IH remained relatively neutral. The overall comprehensive signal was neutral and oscillating. For treasury bond futures, although the capital side remained loose, market risk appetite limited the upward space, the stock - bond seesaw effect decreased, the open - interest factor weakened marginally, and institutions were still cautious about allocation behavior, with the comprehensive signal being neutral and oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - **Economic Kinetic Energy**: The weekly changes of different indicators varied, such as the blast furnace开工率 decreased by 1.28%, the开工率 of PTA decreased by 1.28%, while the炼油厂开工率 of Shandong refineries increased by 8.04%. The stock index futures score was 8, and the treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. - **Inflation Indicators**: The weekly changes of various inflation - related indicators were different. For example, the vegetable basket product wholesale price index decreased by 0.32%, and the coking coal index increased by 4.61%. The stock index futures score was 7, and the treasury bond futures score was 8 [3]. - **Liquidity**: The weekly changes of liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. showed different trends. The stock index futures score was 8 [4]. - **Index Valuation**: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM), price - to - sales ratio (TTM), etc. had certain changes. The stock index futures score was 10 [5]. - **Market Sentiment - Stock Index**: The financing balance increased by 2.00%, and the margin - selling balance decreased by 0.22%. The treasury bond futures score was 9 [6]. - **Market Sentiment - Bond**: The yield of 10 - year CDB bonds decreased by 0.27%, and the S&P 500 volatility index increased by 4.67%. The treasury bond futures score was 7 [7]. Strategy Introduction - **Multi - Strategy for Financial Futures**: The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - side high - frequency data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The open - interest is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model (using the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function) and the trend - regression model. The signals are classified into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread change or oscillation), '-1' (large spread may increase). In actual operation, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [21]. Market Signals - **Multi - Strategy Model Signals**: The short - term, long - term, and comprehensive signals of different futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) were provided, with specific values for each contract. The trading rules include taking the top 2 contracts with a comprehensive signal strength greater than or equal to 0.6 for long positions and the bottom 2 with a value less than or equal to 0.4 for short positions, and other rules such as signal shielding [18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Signals**: The N - S model and trend - regression model signals for TF and T main contracts from September 15 to September 19 were presented, showing different signal combinations on different days [24].