Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Neutral (represented by white stars, indicating short - term equilibrium and low operability) [1] - Aluminum: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Alumina: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated in terms of stars [1] - Zinc: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Lead: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Tin: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish (represented by red stars) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in terms of stars [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (represented by red stars) [1] Core Views - The performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some metals are affected by seasonal factors, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions [2][3][4] - There are differences in price trends among metals, with some in a bullish or bearish state, and some in a state of short - term equilibrium, requiring different investment strategies such as observation, holding, or partial profit - taking [2][7][11] Summaries by Metals Copper - Wednesday saw a narrow - range shock in Shanghai copper with reduced positions. Spot copper was reported at 80,045 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium remained at 55 yuan. With mediocre manufacturing performance in Europe and the US in September, there was pre - holiday stocking, but concerns about copper - related consumption indicators remained, and social inventory was still accumulating this month. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations, and the spot premium and discount in various regions rebounded slightly. Downstream开工 continued to pick up seasonally, but the apparent demand in September was lower than expected. There were signs of inventory reduction in aluminum ingots due to pre - holiday replenishment, and Shanghai aluminum was expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, and the Baotai spot price remained at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. Alumina's operating capacity reached a record high of nearly 98 million tons, and industry inventory continued to rise. With obvious supply surplus, prices were falling. The current price still allowed profit for production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was difficult to trigger production cuts, and the support level was around 2,800 yuan in June [3] Zinc - The import loss of zinc ingots exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton, and the expectation of zinc exports strengthened. LME zinc fell from a high. In China, the consumption peak season was not prosperous. Affected by tariffs, the export of galvanized sheets weakened in August. Under the influence of Super Typhoon "Hagupit", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened. Shanghai zinc continued to decline with increasing positions, and the lower support level was at 21,500 yuan/ton [4] Lead - The profit of recycled lead was repaired, and the expectation of resuming production strengthened. The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises made rigid and selective purchases, and the pre - holiday stocking demand was coming to an end. High - price lead ingot transactions were weak. Some long - position holders in the futures market took profits at high prices. Shanghai lead felt obvious pressure at 17,200 yuan/ton. There were still plans for primary lead smelters to conduct maintenance in late September, and the overall increase in recycled lead supply was limited. The supply - demand of lead was weak on both sides, and the contradiction was limited. It was expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with dull market trading. Short - term macro - favorable factors were basically exhausted, and the cost - side had insufficient upward momentum, so the rising trend of stainless steel spot prices was difficult to sustain. However, the pre - National Day stocking demand was gradually emerging, and stainless steel mills were still in a state of cost inversion, showing cost - side support. The pure nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and nickel prices were in a weak state and about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed up with a shock. Today's spot tin was 271,400 yuan, and the delivery month was at par with the spot in real - time. Overnight, LME tin fluctuated above the key support level of $34,000. There were still supply - side themes in the market, including the slow resumption of Burmese ore supply and the uncertainty of mining certificates for Indonesian coal mines and various ore types. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices fluctuated strongly in the short term, and market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons. The lower support for lithium prices was evident, but the selling actions in the industrial chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of anti - involution, the price was pressured by expectations [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price strengthened, mainly due to the spread of the overall market up - trend sentiment. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, the operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan continued their high operating rates during the wet season. On the demand side, the incremental release of polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the SMM latest industrial silicon social inventory increased by 4,000 tons week - on - week. Although the market sentiment and cost expectations drove the short - term strengthening of the futures price, the support for continuous rise was insufficient, and it was expected to continue to fluctuate [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price strengthened today, mainly due to a technical rebound and the spread of the overall market up - trend sentiment. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re -投料 was stable at 50,300 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM). In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month changes. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon were expected to be adjusted down synchronously, and there was still a slight pressure of inventory accumulation for polysilicon. On the policy side, the elimination of production capacity continued to be advanced gradually, and the current supply - demand pattern did not provide strong support. Without substantial new favorable factors, the short - term futures price was expected to fluctuate within a range, and it was recommended to take partial profits during the technical rebound [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the average price of Brent and SC is expected to decline. It is advisable to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [2]. - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and black series, as well as energy and chemical products and agricultural products, different trends and investment suggestions are presented according to their respective supply - demand situations, policies, and geopolitical factors [4][5][6] and so on. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The overnight international oil price rebounded. The mid - term bearish trend persists, with the estimated average price of Brent dropping from $68/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel, and SC from 500 yuan/barrel to around 465 yuan/barrel. Hold the combined strategy of high - level short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU mainly follow the crude oil trend. Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Crude oil leads the decline in oil futures, and LPG slightly follows. Supply - demand shows marginal improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [22]. - **Asphalt**: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The overall inventory decreased. The futures price oscillates with support below [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. The upward trend remains, but short - term fluctuations may increase [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated. Domestic spot copper prices were reported, and it is advisable to wait and see due to concerns about consumption indicators and inventory [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Downstream start - up increased seasonally, but inventory has not yet shown a turning point. Observe whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity reached a record high, and the inventory continued to rise. The price is expected to run weakly, with support at around 2800 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: The export expectation strengthened, and the import loss narrowed. Consumption was weak in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased. The lower support is at 21,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The profit of recycled lead repaired, and the supply - demand was weak. The price is expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly and is about to start a downward trend. Stainless steel has cost support due to pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, London tin rose at the key support level. The price is difficult to show a trend in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The supply decreased from the high level, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was partially implemented. The price is relatively firm, and it is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated. With pre - holiday stocking sentiment and sufficient carbon supply, the price is relatively firm, and the futures price shows a premium. It is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. With increasing demand and production, it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The demand was okay, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [18]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillated weakly at night. The demand for rebar improved slightly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Chemical Products - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price oscillated. The policy - driven capacity clearance is in progress. The short - term price may correct, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity of low - level repair after the correction [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [13]. - **Urea**: The main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The supply exceeded demand, and the price may continue to run at a low level in the short term [23]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price stabilized and rebounded. The port demand strengthened, but high inventory and accumulation expectations restricted the upward space. Pay attention to overseas gas - limiting situations [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price stopped falling and rebounded. The actual fundamentals were okay, but the import expectation and poor downstream profits dragged down the market [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase. The supply increase is greater than the demand increase, and the price trend is weak [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate weakly due to high supply and inventory pressure. Caustic soda futures price dropped sharply, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakened, and the PTA processing margin and basis improved slightly. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory relief [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to fall. The actual supply pressure was not large, but the expectation was weak. Pay attention to inventory and new - device variables [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The short - fiber industry is expected to be boosted, and the processing margin continued to repair. The bottle - grade chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [31]. - **Glass**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price fell from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see before the festival and look for low - long opportunities near the cost [32]. - **20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The demand was stable. The supply of natural rubber increased while the inventory decreased, and that of synthetic rubber decreased with inventory decline. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remained unchanged. The price fell. Look for high - short opportunities and be cautious near the cost [34]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The short - term market is bearish due to Argentina's export policy. Wait and see in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The supply of domestic soybeans in Q1 2026 is expected to be sufficient. Domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The US soybean market may be under pressure [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil is expected to be stronger than other oils. Rapeseed meal demand is expected to be average [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean price reached a new low. The supply is expected to be good. The price of US soybeans may face downward pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated weakly at night. The new - season output is expected to be good, but the price may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [39]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs reached a new low. The supply pressure is large, and the price is bearish [40]. - **Egg**: The near - term contract should focus on short - position exit, and the far - term contract in H1 2026 can be considered for long - position layout [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded and oscillated. The domestic new - cotton acquisition is about to start. The Xinjiang cotton output is likely to be high. Wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillated. The domestic market focuses on the next - season output estimate, and the Guangxi output expectation is relatively good [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillated. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline [44]. - **Timber**: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Wait and see for now [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price oscillated at a low level. The inventory is high, and the supply is relatively loose. Wait and see or trade in the range [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and moderately allocate to cyclical sectors. Also, seize the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [46]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds fell across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer short - term bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market's medium - term bearish trend continues, and prices are expected to decline. Products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas will be affected by the crude oil market and their own fundamentals, showing different trends [1][2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 2.3% today. The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region to resume exports of 230,000 barrels per day pressured the market. The market's supply - demand surplus will increase in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, with surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day and 2.67 million barrels per day respectively. The average price of Brent is expected to drop from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the average price of SC from 500 yuan per barrel to about 465 yuan per barrel. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, demand has declined, Chinese imports in August decreased significantly month - on - month, and the summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has subsided. Although the Singapore high - sulfur inventory has decreased, it remains high. The fundamentals have limited impact on prices, but concerns about supply support high - sulfur valuations. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply was pressured due to the RFCC device failure in Nigeria, but this negative factor has been somewhat digested. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will follow crude oil and maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran, Russia, and Ukraine [2] Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly month - on - month. There is a pre - holiday rush demand in the northern regions. The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year - on - year increase and little month - on - month change. The factory inventory remained stable month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 57,000 tons, and the overall inventory level decreased month - on - month. The asphalt futures price is in an oscillatory consolidation pattern with support below [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil led the decline in oil product futures, and LPG slightly followed. The refineries' increased self - use of liquefied gas squeezed the external supply, causing the commodity volume to decline compared with last week. Typhoon weather in the South China region affected the import arrival, and the import arrival volume in East China increased month - on - month but remained at a low level. The combustion demand was stable, the chemical consumption of olefin C4 and propane decreased while the chemical consumption of butane increased, and the overall consumption increased slightly. It is expected that the LPG market will mainly oscillate at the bottom [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall supply of new soybeans this year is expected to be good, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The market's concern about the tight supply of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is likely to ease. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom around the National Day. The fundamentals of live pigs are weak, and the futures price is bearish. The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and the far - month contracts in the first half of next year can be considered for long positions [2][4][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans. The new soybean supply is expected to be good. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has rebounded, and the price of imported soybeans is weak. The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point [2] Soybeans & Doupo - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or the export volume reaches $7 billion. The previous export tax rates were 26% and 24.5% respectively. The import volume is worthy of continuous attention. The import of Argentine doupo may impact the current cost system. The short - term market is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the continuous contract [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. As long as the Brazilian soybean production in the 25/26 season is normal, the subsequent production will be connected. In October, attention should be paid to the actual sales and export of Argentine soybeans, and the export volume of douyou and doupo is likely to increase. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be marginally loose. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The supply of US soybeans is marginally loose, which will drag down the US douyou market. The final policy of US douyou for biodiesel will be announced in October, so the US douyou market is likely to be weaker than the Malaysian palm oil market in the short term [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The domestic vegetable oil and meal sector fell today. The zero - tariff measure of Argentina on grains and finished products still has a negative impact. Caiyou is still in the inventory reduction stage. Due to the time required for Australian rapeseed to arrive at the port, coastal oil mills may face shutdown in October. Caiyou is expected to be relatively stronger than other oils. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and caipo is low, and the demand for caipo is suppressed. The demand for aquatic feed will decline seasonally, and the demand is expected to be mediocre. The Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest period, and its export is lower than the annual average for five consecutive weeks due to the lack of demand from the Chinese market. The overall short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures rebounded slightly today. The weather in the main domestic corn - producing areas this year is mostly good, and the new - season corn production is relatively optimistic. However, as the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has continued to fall and has not stopped falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The futures contracts of live pigs all fell to new lows, and funds increased short positions. The spot price is still weak, and the average selling price has reached a new low. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork procurement this week, but the volume is still limited. The overall supply pressure in the second half of the year is large, and the fundamentals are weak. There is no inflection point in the number of fertile sows yet. The futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and funds have reduced positions by more than 20,000 lots. The spot price is stable and weak, and the spot quotes in many places have been lowered. Since the peak season in September, the rebound of the spot price reached a phased high last Wednesday. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the driving force for the spot price to rise significantly is insufficient. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry still needs to deeply reduce production capacity. Although the elimination speed has accelerated since August, there is still a long way to go. The number of chick replenishment in July and August was at a low level, and the pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in the fourth quarter of this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, long positions can be considered, and for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - selling funds [9]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak domestic demand and cautious market sentiment [2] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level with support from high hot metal production and limited inventory build - up pressure [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4][6] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices show good performance with upward - repaired valuations, and it is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7][8] Summary by Industry Steel - The futures market declined today. Thread apparent demand recovered, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory accumulated again. High hot metal production eased the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the market was cautious, and the bearish demand outlook restricted the upside of the futures market [2] Iron Ore - The futures market declined today. Global shipments fell from a high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory decreased last week with no significant short - term inventory build - up pressure. Domestic terminal demand was weak, steel mills had slight profits and low willingness to cut production actively. High hot metal production last week continued to support iron ore demand. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still some pre - festival replenishment demand. Market speculation cooled down. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated during the day. The first round of coking price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly. Overall coke inventory increased. With the rise in futures prices, traders' purchasing willingness improved. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a slight premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated during the day. Mongolian coal customs clearance suspended during the National Day holiday and will resume on October 8. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, spot auction transactions increased, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The resumption of production in coking coal mines was basically completed, and it was less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the over - production inspection. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Weekly silicon manganese production continued to increase, and inventory did not accumulate. Spot and futures demand was good. Manganese ore forward quotes rose slightly, and spot ore was boosted. Manganese ore inventory increased slowly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Magnesium metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, spot and futures market demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - **Title**: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - **Date**: September 23, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor intensities of energy and agricultural products declined, while the black sector rose. The precious metals sector was strong in the cross - section, and the energy and agricultural products sectors were weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors showed different trends last week, and the comprehensive signals were different for various commodities. The fundamental factors also presented different characteristics for different commodities [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sector Metals - **Black Sector**: The momentum factors of coking coal and coke increased marginally, and the term structure of rebar was stronger than that of iron ore [3]. - **Non - ferrous Sector**: The position factor of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and copper was strong in the cross - section [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold remained unchanged, and the momentum of silver continued to rise marginally with an expanding internal difference [3]. Energy and Chemicals - The cross - sectional momentum differentiation of the energy and chemical sector narrowed, and soda ash was weak in the cross - section [3]. Agricultural Products - The short - cycle momentum factors of soybean oil and palm oil remained low, but the position increased marginally. The time - series momentum of agricultural products declined [3]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.18%, the spread factor decreased by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned to long. The supply, demand, and spread signals turned to long, and the inventory signal turned to short [5]. - **Shanghai Lead**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.02%, the demand factor decreased by 0.23%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor was flat compared with the previous week. This week, the comprehensive signal remained short. The supply signal remained neutral, the inventory signal turned to short, and the spread signal turned from long to short [5]. - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.28%, the demand factor weakened by 0.02%, the inventory factor increased by 0.40%, the spread factor increased by 0.01%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal was short. The supply side was neutral, the demand side turned to long, the inventory side remained short, and the spread side was short [3]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the returns of major factors were flat compared with the previous week. This week, the comprehensive signal was long. The supply side remained neutral, the demand side was neutral, the inventory side was long, the profit side was slightly long, and the spread side was slightly short [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market uncertainty for copper remains high, with pre - holiday stocking leading to price fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina show that the market is in a state of over - supply, and the performance of apparent consumption is not as expected. Zinc is suggested to be short - sold on rebounds. Lead shows signs of a phased improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from imported ingots. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak trend. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and a "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended. Lithium carbonate is in a state of price oscillation under the influence of various factors. Industrial silicon has an over - supply situation, and polysilicon may face callback pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the situation of precious metals. There is a large price fluctuation, and the market focuses on economic indicators. The overall uncertainty is high [1]. - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable. Although the peak - season signal is not obvious, the market enters the pre - holiday stocking period. The inventory has a small outflow, and production has decreased month - on - month. The scrap - copper enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market pays attention to imports [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Some mines have production problems, affecting the supply [1]. - **Trend**: There is a certain boost from pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to consumption indicators. It is recommended to stop losses on previous long positions and then wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has increased, the market is in an over - supply state, and the profit still has room for compression. The support level is around 2,600 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, with mainly capacity replacement [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate has a small change, and the export situation is different for different products. After the implementation of counter - tariffs, exports remain rigid [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod social inventory has decreased. The spot discount has narrowed, and the processing fee has risen [1]. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the seasonal peak, but the inventory has not shown a turning point. The apparent consumption is lower than expected. The support level of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking effect [1]. Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest - rate cut, the price has fallen. The internal and external price differences have changed, and the import ore price is not good [1]. - **Supply**: The LME inventory is low, and the domestic smelter inventory is being repaired. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased [1]. - **Consumption**: It is still the off - peak season in the peak season. Although the downstream has increased low - price purchases during the National Day holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1]. - **Trend**: Both the internal and external zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is recommended to take the opportunity of the pre - holiday rebound to short - sell [1]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is in a low - level consolidation, and the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and an increase in positions [1]. - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic primary lead supply is restricted by raw materials. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low. Imported ingots are arriving in China, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The inventories of smelters have decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are improving, but the imported ingot supply is expected to be strong. The upper pressure level is 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock, and the stainless steel has a slight rebound. The trading activity is low [1]. - **Macro and demand**: After the interest - rate cut, the long - position holders tend to cash out. The downstream is cautious, and the high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging. The cost support is obvious [1]. - **Supply and inventory**: The premiums of different products are different. The nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is in a weak trend and is about to start a downward trend [1]. Tin - **Market**: The internal and external prices have encountered resistance and declined, and the LME squeeze - out situation has basically ended [1]. - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and overseas raw materials is tight [1]. - **Consumption**: After the price has dropped to the support level, there is a demand for low - price purchases. The inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1]. - **Trend**: After the reduction of the internal and external position risks, the market focus turns to the domestic market. It is difficult for the price to show a trend. A "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price has oscillated and rebounded, and the market speculation has declined. The difference between long and short positions has decreased [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The traditional car sales season has driven the growth of material factory orders. The overall industry demand is strong. The total market inventory has decreased, and the smelter inventory has decreased while the downstream inventory has increased [1]. - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling actions are basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is under pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have shown different trends. The price of industrial silicon has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton due to cost support [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The production is expected to increase from September to October. The demand side has different situations for different industries. The overall supply is expected to be in an over - supply situation [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, including the increase in ordinary inventory and delivery inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is affected by the upward cost of coal and the expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price has oscillated in a range and shown a downward trend. The market sentiment has cooled down. The spot price has a slight upward adjustment [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The output of leading enterprises may decline in October, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production, while the component price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is unevenly distributed, and the total inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The elimination of excess capacity is gradually advancing. The market sentiment has a weakened boosting effect. The futures price may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategy - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100. The reasons are the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]