Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Hongye Futures Weekly Report on Double Offset Paper [1] - Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Author: Liang Mingyue from the Financial Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **Spot Price**: On October 20, the price of 70g regular white double offset paper in the mainstream market was 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of 70g high - white double offset paper was 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton. Deals were negotiated on a case - by - case basis, and dealers mostly bought and sold in small quantities. There were cases of selling at lower prices in some areas [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The wood pulp market was consolidating. On October 20, the quoted price of mainstream softwood pulp brands in Shandong was 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton, and that of mainstream hardwood pulp brands was 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton. The market price of Kunhe chemical mechanical pulp was 3700 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the current production cost of double offset paper was about 4890 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was about - 247.14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Last week, the production of large - scale factories was basically stable, and the industry output increased slightly. The output of double offset paper last week was 203,000 tons, an increase of 6.8%. The capacity utilization rate was 53%, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% [2]. - **Demand**: The growth momentum of the downstream consumer end was weak. The operating rate of some printing factories remained low. Market demand mainly came from users' rigid demand for replenishment, and new orders were relatively limited [2]. - **Import and Export**: In July 2025, the export volume of double offset paper was about 63,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In July 2025, the import volume of double offset paper was about 11,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the slight increase in factory output and the weak performance of the downstream consumer end, factory inventories were accumulating. On October 16, the inventory of double offset paper production enterprises was 1.315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [2]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Currently, the wood pulp market is in a narrow - range shock state, and the price fluctuation range has narrowed, providing relatively weak cost support for double offset paper. On the supply side, large - scale production enterprises plan to keep production stable. Although the industry faces high production cost pressure and there are phenomena of paper machine conversion and cross - scheduling, the total domestic output of double offset paper is not expected to fluctuate significantly, and the overall supply of the industry remains sufficient. On the demand side, the release of publishing orders is limited, and the demand for social orders continues to be sluggish. The consumer end lacks the willingness and ability to support the market, making it difficult to provide effective support for the market. In general, the current supply - demand fundamentals of double offset paper are weak, and it may experience weak shocks in the short term [2]. Group 4: Content Summaries by Directory Double Offset Paper Price Data - No specific summary information other than the price data mentioned in the core views [2] Double Offset Paper Cost - The report shows the price trends of mainstream softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp in Shandong from 2022 - 2025, as well as the production cost of double offset paper [8][10][14] Double Offset Paper Supply - The report presents the operating rate and output trends of double offset paper from 2021 - 2025 [17][19][21] Double Offset Paper Demand - The report shows the apparent consumption trends of double offset paper from 2020 - 2025 [22] Double Offset Paper Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of double offset paper production enterprises from 2022 - 2025 [24] Double Offset Paper Import and Export - The report shows the import and export volume trends of double offset paper from 2021 - 2025 [27][28][29] Double Offset Paper Production Gross Profit - The report presents the production gross profit trends of double offset paper from 2021 - 2025 [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp main contract fluctuated at a low level last week. The SP2601 opened at 5080, reached a minimum of 5042, a maximum of 5198, and closed at 5122, with a gain of 0.87%. As of October 17, the top 20 long positions in the pulp 2601 contract were 114,426 lots (an increase of 5,390 lots from the previous day), and the top 20 short positions were 127,104 lots (an increase of 5,198 lots from the previous day) [2] - As of October 17, the price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Shandong Wuzhen was 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [2] - It is reported that in September 2025, Chile's Arauco Company's quotation for coniferous pulp Yinxing remained unchanged at $700/ton; the quotation for broadleaf pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, an increase of $20/ton; the quotation for natural pulp Jinxing remained unchanged at $590/ton [2] - In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 27.061 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, the import volume of bleached coniferous pulp was 691,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.431 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - In this period, the downstream demand for household paper was weak, the paper mills' shipments were poor, and the industry's operating rate was low. The large white cardboard manufacturers had strong production and sales, the paper mills' profitability improved, but the traders' shipments were average and their trading enthusiasm was not high. The downstream consumption of offset paper continued to be weak, the operating level of some printing factories was not high, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The copperplate paper market had sufficient supply, the demand was weak, the consumption speed of downstream base paper was slow, and users purchased according to quantity [2] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. The weak demand from downstream paper mills and limited提货 led to high inventory [2] - The total import volume of pulp continued to increase year-on-year, and the shipments of international mainstream suppliers to the Chinese market also remained at a high level. Coupled with the high port inventory, the short-term pressure on the supply side was difficult to relieve. The overall terminal demand in the downstream base paper market was weak, paper mills mainly purchased raw materials for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively increase purchases was weak. The overall market sentiment was cautious. The current "supply is stronger than demand" pattern in the pulp market continued, but thanks to the relatively strong spot price and the support of import costs, the downward space for prices may be limited, and it is likely to maintain a low-level fluctuation in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - The report presents the price data of pulp, including the closing price of the pulp futures main contract, pulp basis, the CFR intermediate price of Yinxing in China's main port area, the CFR intermediate price of broadleaf pulp Mingxing, the mainstream price of Mingxing brand broadleaf pulp in Shandong, and the market price of coniferous pulp Yinxing in Shanghai [3][5][7][8][10][13][15] Pulp Supply - The report shows the pulp import volume and coniferous pulp import volume from 2021 to 2025 [16][18][20] Pulp Demand - The report includes the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe, the apparent consumption of pulp in China, the operating rate of downstream base paper, the consumption of downstream base paper, the inventory of downstream base paper, and the price of downstream base paper [21][22][24][33][37][41] Pulp Inventory - The report presents the inventory data of pulp, including European pulp port inventory, global wood pulp finished product inventory available days, pulp futures inventory, European coniferous pulp inventory, and European coniferous pulp inventory available days [44][45][46][48][50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The log market is currently facing issues such as near - month discount and poor demand. The price of logs is expected to continue to fluctuate in the seasonal peak season. However, if the downstream demand continues to fall short of expectations and there are no positive factors in tariffs and the real estate sector, the far - month contracts may also experience a discount when entering the delivery month and potentially decline to a lower level. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Futures and Spot - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 760 yuan/cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. In October 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs is 115 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [3]. - Futures prices: As of the close on October 20, the main log contract 2601 closed at 834.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2511 contract closed at 802.5 yuan/cubic meter. Recently, there has been a divergence between near - and far - month futures prices. The far - month contracts remain in a relatively strong oscillation, while the near - month contracts have fallen significantly in the middle of the month under the discount [3]. Log Industry Data - Supply - Shipment from New Zealand ports (October 11 - 17, 2025): A total of 12 ships with 460,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, with the number of ships remaining the same as the previous period and the volume increasing by 10,000 cubic meters. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period [3]. - Expected arrival at 13 ports (October 13 - 19, 2025): 13 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 86%. The total arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 79% [3]. - Actual arrival at 13 ports (October 6 - 12, 2025): 7 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 7 ships compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 50%. The total arrival volume is about 255,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 234,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3]. - Import volume in September 2025: China imported 4.669 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to August, the import volume was 42.176 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. The import volume in September continued to decline, significantly reduced compared to 2024 and at a historical low. Radiata pine mainly comes from New Zealand, and fir and spruce mainly come from Europe. There is an obvious trend of resource concentration, with an increase in the proportion from New Zealand and an increase in the proportion of radiata pine imports [3]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of October 17, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The radiata pine inventory is 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The North American timber inventory is 90,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as the previous week. The spruce/fir inventory is 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [4]. - Overall, with the decline in FOB costs and weak support from the downstream peak season, due to the relatively low recent arrivals, the national coniferous log inventory is in a state of destocking. The radiata pine, the main inventory tree species in China, continues to be destocked, and the North American timber inventory remains at a low level [4]. Log Industry Data - Demand - Domestic port log outbound volume: As of October 10, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong remains the same as the previous period, and the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 17,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,400 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 31.94% [4]. - The national log outbound volume continues to decline. According to Mulin news, there is a differentiation in demand structure. Price increases are mainly concentrated in high - quality woods such as large - size (e.g., large A - grade) and knot - free woods (e.g., P30, P40). The price increase of high - quality woods has driven a small increase in the price of medium A standard goods, but the overall outbound volume has slightly decreased [4]. - Real estate data shows that the year - on - year performance of shipment and outbound volume is poor. Indicators such as new construction starts and funds in place all reflect the downward trend of the real estate market, which continues to suppress the demand for logs [4]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - There is an obvious trend of resource concentration in China's radiata pine imports, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. There is a growing risk of over - dependence on a single source, and attention should be paid to the impact of international price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions on domestic processing enterprises [5]. - The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost during the off - season this year. The downstream products of logs and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wooden squares and coke in the log downstream is 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment in the construction industry has a positive impact on the sentiment of the log futures market, and the previous indirect boost and decline of the anti - involution policy have been reflected in the market [5]. - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially boosting the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log inventories to meet the export demand gap, thereby accelerating log destocking. However, the current sluggish terminal market has a negative feedback effect, and the log market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [5]. - Regarding the Sino - US economic and trade talks in July, the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days has been extended again, and there is still uncertainty about the export cost of Chinese wood products [5]. - Recently, there have been various tariff change news. The US - EU trade agreement has included wood in the 15% tariff ceiling category, marking a structural reduction in the trade barriers for wood between the US and the EU. New US tariffs on wood came into effect on Tuesday (October 14). The new tariffs impose a 10% ad valorem tariff on the import of softwood and lumber and a 25% ad valorem tariff on some upholstered wood products, and the tax rate will increase again next year. This news mainly affects Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico and may also have an impact on the global trade direction [5]. - Although New Zealand's wood exports to the US currently enjoy tariff exemptions, the market generally expects the US to announce additional tariffs on New Zealand wood products in mid - to late October. The US is the largest export market for New Zealand's knot - free wood, which may lead to a change in the export direction [5]. - The European Commission has announced higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, which will come into effect on December 7, 2025. The Mexican Ministry of Economy has issued an announcement making a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on cardboard originating from China [5]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first batch of deliveries of the 07 contract in each region went smoothly. The market believes that the 5.9 - meter medium A specification is a cost - effective delivery product, with a premium of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the benchmark product [6]. - The 09 contract had its first delivery attempts in multiple places, providing strong support for the stable operation of the market. The 2509 contract had 136 delivery matches, an 89% decrease compared to the 1281 matches of the 07 contract. The successful delivery was 131 matches, with a delivery success rate of 96.3%. According to Mulin news, as the delivery month approaches, some processing plants said they will reduce spot log purchases and wait for the delivery goods of the 11 contract to enter the market. The downstream is generally satisfied with the quality of the delivery standard products [6]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - As of October 14, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites is 59.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The fund availability rate of construction sites has weakened this week. The funds for housing construction projects have improved, while the fund availability of non - housing construction projects has decreased. Some construction sites reported poor post - holiday payment collection and have no plans for rush construction [6]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [6]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - The log futures prices increased significantly from July to August, mainly due to factors such as shortages of some log specifications, rising FOB prices, and inventory preparation for the 09 futures contract delivery. The spot log prices also increased continuously, especially the 5.9 - meter medium A with a large increase driven by delivery profits. Due to the negative outlook for real estate demand in the future, the near - and far - month prices diverged after entering the delivery month. The sentiment in the near - month market was weak, the 09 contract remained at a low level. After the main contract switched to 2511, the 11 contract reached a phased low in early September and then rebounded with oscillations [7]. - The increase in September was mainly affected by rising FOB prices and some positive factors during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is reported that laminated wood processing plants have a demand for non - blue - stained raw materials. The FOB prices from New Zealand and domestic spot prices remain relatively strong. However, the futures prices dropped rapidly after the holiday in October, mainly due to the pessimistic outlook for downstream demand in the future, the difficult - to - change negative situation in the real estate industry, the end of pre - holiday inventory preparation demand, and the average post - holiday demand. According to Mulin statistics, there is pressure for an increase in future arrivals, and the inventory trend may change from destocking to stockpiling [7]. - The current main contract, 2601, is oscillating strongly, with a divergence between near - and far - month prices. The 2511 contract had a large decline previously and has rebounded slightly recently. As the delivery month approaches, attention should be paid to risks. It is expected that with stable FOB prices in the next period, the log prices may continue to oscillate during the seasonal peak season. However, if the downstream actual demand continues to fall short of expectations and there are no positive factors in tariffs and the real estate sector, the far - month contracts may also experience a discount when entering the delivery month and potentially decline to a lower level. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of domestic whole milk in the Shanghai market dropped to 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, while the US dollar price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained unchanged at 1,850 US dollars/ton [3]. - In the producing areas, rainfall in northeastern and northern Thailand eased, with a large decline in cup - rubber prices, while in southern Thailand, glue prices rebounded. In Yunnan, the weather was good, glue output was stable, and raw material prices decreased slightly. In Hainan, although rain affected tapping, weak procurement by factories dragged down raw material prices. In Vietnam, glue supply was normal, and stable procurement supported prices [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a 28.92% increase from the previous week but an 8.57% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a 22.43% increase from the previous week and a 4.98% positive year - on - year growth. Tire enterprises resumed work as planned, driving a significant increase in capacity utilization [3]. - As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons (0.7%) from the previous week. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (0.11%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 70,800 tons, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 385,200 tons [3]. - In the future, rainfall in major natural rubber producing areas is expected to ease, and tapping operations are likely to normalize. Global natural rubber supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase cycle, putting downward pressure on raw material prices. The terminal tire market lacks highlights, and demand recovery is slow. Tire enterprises continue to purchase natural rubber on a need - to - fill basis, and demand support for raw material prices is limited. Inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and some regions may face inventory accumulation pressure. In the short term, the natural rubber market may be under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price Data - There are charts showing the basis of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber, including the market mainstream price of Yunnan - produced natural rubber in Shanghai, the closing price of the main contract of SHFE natural rubber, the market price of Thai - produced STR20 dry rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and the closing price of the main contract of SHFE 20 - standard rubber [5][6] Main - producing Countries' Rubber Output and China's Natural Rubber Imports - There are charts presenting the monthly output of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries and China's natural rubber imports from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10] Tire Production - There is a chart showing the monthly tire production from 2021 to 2025 [11][12] Tire Enterprise开工率 - There are charts showing the weekly semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprise开工率 from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16] Tire Enterprise Inventory - There are charts showing the weekly available inventory days of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong factories from 2021 to 2025 [18][19][20][21] Natural Rubber Inventory - There are charts showing the 20 - standard rubber futures inventory, natural rubber futures inventory, natural rubber social inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory, and Qingdao general trade inventory from 2021 to 2025 [24][25][26][27][28][29]

玉米主力01合约止跌反弹。现货仍承压下行，鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价由2180元/吨跌至2150元/吨附近；蛇口港玉米到港 价由2370元/吨跌至2310元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡走弱，接近平水。 淀粉主力11合约震荡偏弱。潍坊金玉米淀粉价格由2850元/吨跌至2800元/吨附近，基差震荡走弱。 （1）连绵阴雨致华北等地受灾，东北增产上量压力。近一个月的连绵阴雨天气下，华北、西北、黄淮等地机收困 难，多人工采收；且无法及时晾晒、脱粒，多有发霉现象。尽管政府已进行救灾援助，不过已受损玉米难以恢复。10月 18号后阴雨天气渐消，华北等地玉米收获或加速，玉米或逐渐上量。农户对发霉玉米只能低价出售，因毒素超标无法饲 用，且深加工企业也有毒素要求，或造成后期优质玉米供应紧张。而东北天气好，增产集中上量压力大。区域价格分化 或延续。 （2）渠道库存见底，下游企业开始采购。据钢联数据：截至10月10日，北港玉米库存为85.2万吨，止降回升；周 度下海量为58.1万吨，环比续增。广东港内贸玉米库存为19.3万吨，见底；外贸玉米库存为19.4万吨，环比回升。下游 企业库存不一，深加工企业陆续到车，饲企继续下降；截至10月17日，深加工企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic uncertainties increase with the US government shutdown, suspension of USDA reports, and fluctuating tariff statements from Trump, leading to a recent weakening of US cotton due to lack of news guidance. In China, new cotton is concentrated for listing, with the seed - cotton purchase price rising in the second half of the National Day holiday and then falling recently due to Sino - US tariff uncertainties. The "Golden September" performance is below expectations, and the market has low expectations for "Silver October" [3]. - Currently, the mainstream seed - cotton purchase price in the market has limited pressure on the futures market for hedging when converted to lint prices. With general downstream demand and expected yield increase, the upward momentum is also limited. Whether there will be a price increase depends on the later trend of seed - cotton prices. In the short term, both upward and downward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is insufficient [3]. - Attention should be paid to macro factors, demand, and seed - cotton prices. The significant year - on - year increase in the quantity of cotton under official inspection calls for attention to the difference between actual yield and expected yield [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Production and Sales - As of October 10, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 32.6%, 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 3.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate was 73.1%, 12.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 20.5 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [3]. - As of October 12, the cumulative officially inspected lint cotton nationwide was 37.48 tons, while in the same period of the previous year, only 15.03 tons were inspected [3]. - As of October 13, 24:00, the 2025/26 cotton inspection volume was about 41.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 180% [37]. 3.2 Textile and Apparel Exports - In September, China's textile and apparel exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, clothing exports were $12.45 billion, a decrease of 8%, and textile exports were $11.97 billion, an increase of 6.5% [4]. - From January to September, China's cumulative textile and apparel export volume was $221.69 billion, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [4]. 3.3 Industry Operation - As of Monday this week, the yarn mill operating load index was 50.7, up from the end of September; the cloth mill operating load index was 52, down from the end of September but showing an upward trend after the holiday, and further tracking is needed [4]. - In terms of finished product inventory, both yarn mills and cloth mills saw inventory accumulation after the holiday. In terms of raw material inventory, the cotton inventory of yarn mills has been on a downward trend since mid - to - late September and is currently at a slightly higher level compared to the same period in previous years, indicating that yarn mills have no strong intention to replenish raw materials. The cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, but after a rapid increase in the early stage, the current inventory level has stabilized [4]. 3.4 Price Trends - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou cotton active contract increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the ICE active contract price decreased by 2.29 cents/lb [6]. - From September 30 to October 13, 2025, the CotlookA price index decreased by 1.60 cents/lb, and the Indian S - 6 spot price decreased by 1500 rupees/candy [9]. - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the import yarn port pick - up prices of India C32S, Vietnam C32S, and Indonesia C32S decreased by 80 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the import cotton arrival prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M decreased under different tariff methods [10]. 3.5 US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [22]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2869 lots, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 lots [67].

陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 油脂周度行情观察 10月10日，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布9月供需报告。其中，当月产量为184.12万吨（-0.73%），出口量为142.76万吨 （+7.69%），国内消费为33.35万吨（-33.21%），库存为236.10万吨（+7.20%）。产量和库存均高于市场预期，出口有所改 善。报告影响偏空，棕榈油价格回落。 印尼B50政策消息发酵。印尼正加快推进到2026年全面实施B50生物柴油计划，能源部透露，B50燃料的实验室测试已于8月完 成，接下来将进入道路测试阶段。数据显示，若全面实施B50，每年将需要约2010万千升棕榈油基生物燃料。市场对于未来 棕榈油供应收紧有所担忧。 美豆持续收获，受中美贸易摩擦影响，中国仍未采购美豆而是转向南美大豆，美豆供应压力增加。10月1日美国政府停摆,受 此影响USDA月度供需报告、出口销售数据等关键信息暂停发布，市场缺乏指引，同时政府对农民的补贴政策推迟。 根据CONAB数据，截至10月11日当周，巴西2025/2026年度大豆种植率为11 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The aluminum market is significantly affected by macro - factors. With the continuous escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the release of negotiation signals, along with the influence of China's import and export data, the market sentiment fluctuates. The short - term trend of Shanghai Aluminum returns to oscillation, and the medium - term trend depends on the change of spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market tumbled on Friday night, but rebounded on Sunday morning after the US signaled negotiation. China's September import and export data are optimistic, and market sentiment is repaired. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20885 today, with the spot price at 20800 and a spot - to - futures discount of - 85 points. Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell this week, with the spot discount widening to - 50 yuan and general spot trading [1]. - Crude oil and LME Aluminum rebounded today. Shanghai Aluminum opened low and closed slightly down, with increased trading volume and decreased positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, the SHFE inventory rose slightly, and the spot demand was general. The LME inventory was stable, the LME spot premium rose to 12 US dollars, and overseas demand improved. The end of the off - season led to a slight improvement in spot demand [1]. Price and Ratio - The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped significantly to 7.53, showing that the domestic market performed weaker than the overseas market [1]. - The alumina price has been falling as the anti - involution hype subsided [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | Aluminum - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Sep 29 | 7.1293 | - 30 | - 4 | 7.84 | | Sep 30 | 7.1288 | - 30 | - 2 | 7.75 | | Oct 9 | 7.1378 | - 60 | 2 | 7.73 | | Oct 10 | 7.1483 | - 60 | 8 | 7.59 | | Oct 13 | 7.1358 | - 50 | 12 | 7.53 | [3]

（3）美豆上下震荡。美政府停摆，导致10月美农报告未发布。当前美豆集中收割，美豆农大豆无处可去，美将进 行援助，中美贸易关系仍紧张。 国产大豆收获，中美谈判悬疑？ 2025年10月14日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约止跌反弹。现货价格承压回落，富锦大豆市场价由4140元/吨落至4000元/吨附近。大豆基差震荡走弱， 盘面贴水收窄，期现回归。 豆粕01合约低位震荡。豆粕现货价格稳中有升，张家港43粕由2870元/吨升至2900元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘面 升水收窄。 （1）国产大豆集中收割，余粮增加；据钢联：截至10月10日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比升至60%；安徽大豆余粮占比升 至5%；河南大豆余粮占比升至2%；山东大豆余粮占比升至5%。黑龙江大豆集中收获，华北等地遇连阴雨，阻碍收获。 （2）油厂大豆供应充足。据海关总署：8月国内进口大豆1228万吨，环比增加5.3%，同比增加1.12%；1-8月累计进 口7331.76万吨，同比增加4%。中美谈判悬疑，此前特朗普威胁再加100%关税，随后松口有谈判预期。国内进口结构转 向南美，集中到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PVC market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under downward pressure. The market lacked obvious support due to high - level supply, accumulated inventory, and the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping policies, resulting in a weak and volatile price trend [2][34]. - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory pressure persists. Prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered after the holiday, it remains weak overall [2][34]. - In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in export policies, especially the final implementation time and intensity of India's anti - dumping duties. The actual impact of the six - department building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan on the PVC industry also needs to be monitored [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PVC futures and spot prices oscillated weakly. As of the night session on October 10, the main PVC futures price was 4,723 yuan/ton, fluctuating slightly compared to the end of September. The trading volume remained at a moderate level of 255,000 lots. From October 9 to 10, the open interest of the PVC2601 contract increased significantly, indicating high hedging pressure [4]. - In the spot market, regional price differences remained stable but showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions were in different ranges, and they briefly increased at the beginning of the month due to futures fluctuations and then declined again at the end of the month due to weak demand. The ethylene - based price was relatively stable, but the trading atmosphere was light [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Capacity and operation: As of October 10, the overall PVC operating load rate was 76.11%, with the calcium carbide - based operating rate at 78.97% and the ethylene - based operating rate at 77.52%. New production capacity was put into operation in September, and the effective domestic calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity increased to 21.465 million tons. Although there were some maintenance activities, the long - term capacity increase offset the short - term reduction, and the supply pressure continued to expand [14]. - Maintenance: After the holiday, some devices were under maintenance, but the overall maintenance intensity was limited and could not alleviate the supply surplus situation [14]. Inventory - As of October 10, the in - factory PVC inventory was 384,000 tons, and the social inventory was 1.036 million tons, both increasing year - on - year. The social inventory had been accumulating for 13 consecutive weeks since early July, and the high inventory was one of the core factors suppressing the market. The inventory pressure was difficult to relieve in the short term [17]. Demand Side - Domestic demand was weak. The real estate market, the core consumption area of PVC, was still in a slump, with significant year - on - year declines in construction area, new construction area, investment, and completion area from January to August 2025. The downstream enterprise operating rates were at a low level, and the demand support was limited [20]. - Export support weakened. Although the export volume in August increased year - on - year, the expected implementation of India's anti - dumping duties and the anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers in September pressured export orders. The "rush - to - export" behavior in the early stage over - drafted demand, and the export rhythm slowed down significantly in September [21]. Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The production cost of PVC mainly consists of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes. The calcium carbide price accounts for over 80% of the calcium carbide - based PVC cost, and coal price fluctuations significantly affect the cost. The overall PVC industry is in a loss state, with a loss of about 750 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based PVC and about 650 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [26]. - Cost trend: In September, the average calcium carbide market price rose sharply, driving up the calcium carbide - based PVC production cost by 2.41% to 5,132 yuan/ton. The ethylene - based cost slightly increased to 5,617 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that the cost support will gradually weaken [27]. - Profit: As of the end of September, the calcium carbide - based PVC gross profit was about - 444 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based gross profit was - 467 yuan/ton. The cost increase and product price decline formed a "scissors gap", suppressing enterprises' production enthusiasm [28][29]. 3. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and inventory pressure persists. Prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak. The implementation of maintenance plans in October is expected to reduce the operating rate, but the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [34]. - In the long - term, pay attention to changes in export policies and the actual impact of the building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan. - Futures strategy: Given the weak supply - demand pattern of PVC, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities, especially when inventory pressure appears and export expectations weaken. - Spot market: The trading volume remains low, and prices lack obvious support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply - side changes and inventory adjustment signals [34].