1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals due to continuous inventory reduction, it shows a "weak peak season" characteristic. In the short - term, cost rebound and geopolitical uncertainties provide some support. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an expectation of tightened supply in November and a possibility of PXN repair. If there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts, PX processing fees and absolute prices will likely remain low, with limited room for further decline [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish for prices. In the short - term, further decline is limited due to low prices and downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an oversupply expectation and persistent supply - demand contradictions [4]. - Styrene market: It is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Although downstream demand has improved compared to the off - season, the low - profit situation of styrene devices is expected to continue, and prices will likely fluctuate at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Price - International oil prices rebounded slightly from a low level. The current price of naphtha is $573, and the PX CFR price is $812. Sinopec's PX listed price in October is 6,800 yuan/ton, while the settlement price in September was 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Production and Devices - Domestic PX output was 724,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 86.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%. Some devices such as Urumqi Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua are under maintenance and are planned to restart in late October or early November [3]. Supply and Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%. PX is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand during the peak season [3]. Spread - The report presents historical data on spreads such as PX - N, PX - MX, crude oil - naphtha, and BZ - N [16]. Pure Benzene Spot and Futures - The main pure benzene contract 2603 has been declining since mid - September and rebounded slightly this week following cost - side positive factors. The basis between the futures and the East China spot has narrowed and remained stable [4]. Supply and Demand - In September 2025, the estimated monthly output was 1.932 million tons, the import volume was 440,000 tons, and the total supply was 2.712 million tons, while the total demand was 2.593 million tons. Supply and demand both decreased, with supply exceeding demand [4]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 99,000 tons, a 10% week - on - week increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. Profit - Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss - making state, while aniline still has profits and the profit margin has slightly expanded [4]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The main styrene contract has been weakly oscillating, continuing the downward trend since mid - September. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,585 yuan/ton, lower than before [5]. Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China this week was - 556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 9.44% [5]. Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65%. The capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% [5]. Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was less than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to mid - May. EPS demand has increased significantly after the National Day holiday, ABS demand has increased slightly, and PS demand has decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a 3.05% increase from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 122,500 tons, a 0.82% increase from the previous period. It is expected that port inventory will decrease slightly in the future [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengzhou Cotton: Rising Cost of Cotton Lint [1][40] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] - Qualification Number: F0272777 [3] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0010085 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Trump's continuous signals have led the market to have positive expectations for China-US trade relations; as the domestic cotton harvest progresses, the market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward compared to the previous period, and the purchase price of seed cotton has steadily increased. Recently, both domestic and international cotton prices have rebounded, with Zhengzhou cotton showing stronger rebound momentum than US cotton. Although downstream demand remains lackluster, the rising price of seed cotton has increased the cost of cotton lint, and the hedging pressure range has shifted upward. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, but due to the expected high yield and average downstream demand, the upward space is currently limited [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Expectations and Production Estimates - Trump's signals have created positive expectations for China-US trade relations, which may boost cotton prices if favorable. The market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward due to concerns about the impact of rainfall and cooling in Xinjiang on cotton yield and quality [4][5]. - As of October 16, the national cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of machine-picked seed cotton has been rising steadily. As of the previous day, the purchase price index of machine-picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week; in northern Xinjiang, it was 6.21 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [5]. - As of October 21, the cumulative inspection of cotton lint in the 2025 cotton year nationwide was 97.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%, with Xinjiang accounting for 96.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [5][6]. Import and Inventory - In September, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 22,300 tons but a month-on-month increase of 22,300 tons. From January to September this year, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 million tons, a decline of 69.9%. In September, the import volume of cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and flat month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons, a decline of 7.7%. In terms of import proportion, Australian cotton had the highest import volume in September, and Vietnamese cotton yarn had the highest import volume [7]. - As of the end of September, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 660,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, it was 1.72 million tons, only slightly higher than at the end of September last year [7]. Price Trends - From October 15 to October 22, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,270 yuan/ton to 13,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton, while the price of the active contract of US cotton decreased from 63.83 cents/pound to 63.65 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.18 cents/pound [8]. - From October 14 to October 21, the Cotlook A price index rose from 74.95 cents/pound to 75.6 cents/pound, an increase of 0.65 cents/pound. From October 13 to October 20, the price of Indian S-6 cotton decreased from 54,200 rupees/candy to 52,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 1,300 rupees/candy [10]. - From October 15 to October 22, the port pick-up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - From October 15 to October 22, the arrival prices of imported cotton (1% tariff and sliding duty) from the US and Brazil increased to varying degrees [12]. Downstream Market - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of Keqiao Textile showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of raw materials (cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills) and finished products in the downstream market also showed different trends [37][39][42]. - The operating load of the downstream yarn and fabric industries also showed certain fluctuations [43][44]. Futures Market - As of Wednesday this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week. The price index of C32S cotton yarn increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week [46]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton price index under sliding duty and 1% tariff increased week-on-week. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick-up price increased week-on-week [48]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week-on-week, and the loss of the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn widened week-on-week [49]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2,851, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 [55].

Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Key Points 1. Market Review - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. The laboratory tests of B50 fuel were completed in August, and it will enter the road test stage. As of September 2025, the B40 policy is in full implementation. The biodiesel distribution target in 2025 is 15.6 million kiloliters, a significant increase from 13.4 million kiloliters in 2024. The government plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Based on B35 blending requirements, the corresponding crude palm oil demand is about 12.3 million tons, and for B40 it's about 14.3 million tons. If the B50 plan is implemented in 2026, the annual demand for palm oil - based biofuels will increase to 20.1 million kiloliters. Indonesia also plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax to 15% [4]. - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of key information such as USDA monthly supply - demand reports and export sales data. The government's subsidy policy for farmers is postponed, and the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain. A new round of Sino - US trade negotiations is upcoming [4]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons [6]. Demand - As of October 17, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 4,233 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,383 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,700 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12,920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,500 tons [7]. Inventory - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 575,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,100 tons, or 5.13% [8][20]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons, or 3.25% [8][27]. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, or 3.16% [8][29]. Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1,085 per ton; the CIF price was $1,106 per ton; the import cost was 9,425 yuan per ton; the hedging profit for the November shipment was - 115 yuan per ton, and for the December shipment was - 216 yuan per ton [9]. Production - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 15, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 5.76% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.86% month - on - month. From October 11 - 17, 3 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, 1 for November and 2 for December [10]. - As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1616 million tons, the operating rate was 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [10][26]. Spot Price - As of October 17, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - In September 2025, affected by rainfall, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, but the output remained at a high level. The inventory in September was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [14]. - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [16]. India's Palm Oil Import - In September, due to Indian refineries switching to cheaper soybean oil, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports reached a three - year high. The palm oil import volume was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [18]. China's Palm Oil - In September, China's palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [20]. - In September, the palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [21]. - As of October 17, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 115 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54 yuan per ton [24]. China's Soybean Oil - As of October 17, the oil mill operating rate rebounded to 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [26]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons. In September, the soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [27]. China's Rapeseed Oil - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons, at a low level year - on - year. The rapeseed processing rate dropped to 3.2%, and the rapeseed crushing volume dropped to 12,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline [29]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: From October 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil output increased. Palm oil exports improved in early October. In September, India's palm oil imports dropped to a four - month low. Palm oil is entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Indonesia's biodiesel policy supports long - term demand. China's palm oil inventory increased, and it will fluctuate in the short term [31]. - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean planting is going well. China has not purchased US soybeans. Due to the US government shutdown, key data is missing, and the biodiesel policy is uncertain. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September was still high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, the soybean oil output increased, and the inventory decreased but remained at a high level. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [31]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. There are expectations of improved Sino - Canadian relations, which put pressure on rapeseed oil prices. The domestic oil mill operating rate decreased, the rapeseed oil output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply should be monitored [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas low inventory of tin ingots still supports tin prices. After the resumption of domestic maintenance enterprises, supply increases, but limited by the tightness of the ore end, the increase in supply is restricted. The improvement of downstream demand falls short of expectations. It is expected that there will be little change in the supply - demand situation, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the improvement of domestic demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation Tin Concentrate - In September, China's tin ore imports were 8,713.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. Imports from Myanmar were 3,136.76 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.9%. Although Burmese tin mines are gradually resuming production, the absolute import volume from Myanmar remains low, and the overall domestic import volume in September decreased month - on - month, so the domestic tin ore supply shortage continues. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 8,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged month - on - month [3] Supply - In September 2025, SMM estimated that China's refined tin production was about 10,620 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Some domestic enterprises carried out maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate further declined. Last week, according to SMM, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased by 20.63% week - on - week to 50.35%. The seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan has basically ended, but the recovery is only a phased repair, and the overall operating level is still at a historical low. In September, China imported 1,501 tons of tin ingots, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin, a month - on - month increase of 6.78%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is fluctuating slightly higher, and tin imports remain in a loss state. Indonesia exported 4,844.21 tons of refined tin in September, ending three consecutive months of decline, 1.14% lower than the average level in the past four years. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the RKAB approval cycle from once every three years to once a year, requiring enterprises to resubmit relevant documents in October 2025, so there is great uncertainty in Indonesia's exports in the later period [4] Consumption - The peak season is not prosperous. The downstream demand side remains sluggish, with weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets and a significant decrease in orders. The year - on - year data of tinplate production continues to be weak, and the growth rate of tinplate exports is also declining. After the adjustment of tin prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises has weakened, and some merchants have made rigid purchases at low prices. However, the overall order situation has shown poor growth recently, and it was once relatively dull. According to merchants, the current shipment situation has improved, but the consumption side still needs further improvement [4] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons. The social inventory was 7,925 tons, ending three consecutive months of decline and increasing month - on - month, and the inventory was lower than the average level. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin closed at 281,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7,450 yuan, a decline of 2.58%. The basis of Yangtze River spot tin against the main contract fluctuated between premiums and discounts, and the basis was 0 last Friday [5] LME Spot and Inventory - As of October 17, the weekly inventory of LME tin continued to increase by 325 tons to 27,350 tons, still lower than the average level in recent years. The LME spot discount widened, and the discount was - 142 US dollars last weekend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report reviews the copper price trends over the past 40 years and analyzes the impact of major events on copper prices, including economic growth, financial crises, central bank policies, geopolitical events, and trade frictions [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Key Events 2003 - 2008 - In October 2003, copper prices started to rise due to China's rapid economic growth, increased demand for industrial metals, supply - demand imbalance, and fund speculation [4]. - In 2006, global economic growth slowed, demand declined, and copper prices fluctuated significantly [4]. - In August 2007, affected by the US sub - prime mortgage crisis, copper prices fell [4]. - In August 2008, the deepening of the US sub - prime mortgage crisis and China's macro - control led to a sharp drop in copper prices [4]. - In October 2008, after Lehman's bankruptcy, copper prices tumbled, but then rebounded with the 700 - billion TARP and the launch of QE1 [4]. 2009 - 2014 - In March 2010, the end of QE1 hindered the upward trend of copper prices [5]. - In August 2010, the launch of QE2 (scale of $600 billion) pushed copper prices up [5]. - On August 5, 2011, S&P downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, causing copper prices to plummet [5]. - In June 2012, after the end of QE2, copper prices oscillated downward [5]. - In September 2012, the launch of QE3 made copper prices enter an oscillation phase [5]. - In December 2013, the reduction of monthly Treasury purchases and the end of QE3 in October 2014 led to a downward oscillation of copper prices [5]. 2015 - 2019 - In 2015, the global immigration and refugee crisis intensified [6]. - In 2016, European terrorist attacks and the UK's "Brexit" referendum made copper prices weak, but Trump's election in November 2016 caused a sharp rebound [6]. - In March 2018, the US imposed high tariffs on steel and aluminum products and Chinese goods, leading to trade frictions and affecting copper prices [6]. - In 2019, the global economic growth hit a ten - year low, and copper prices oscillated downward. In December, the Sino - US phase - one trade deal stabilized copper prices [6]. 2020 - 2023 - In 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic hit the global economy and copper prices hard. In March, the Fed's interest rate cut and "unlimited" quantitative easing led to a sharp rebound in copper prices due to inflation [7]. - In 2021, the deterioration of Russia - West relations caused significant oscillations in copper prices [7]. - In February 2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a sharp drop in copper prices. The Fed's 11 consecutive interest rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023 put pressure on copper prices [7]. 2024 - Present - In January 2024, the popularity of ChatGPT was positive for copper prices [8]. - In September 2024, the Fed's "preventive interest rate cut" due to economic slowdown was beneficial to copper prices [8]. - In November 2024, Trump's re - election made the market optimistic, and copper prices strengthened [8]. - On December 18, 2024, the Fed's interest rate cut completed the policy shift and pushed copper prices to a record high [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic soybean harvest is nearing completion with quality differentiation, and prices are stabilizing. High soybean imports continue, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Oil mill operating rates are rising, and soybean meal inventories are gradually decreasing. Demand remains strong. The soybean No.1 contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will oscillate and adjust. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No.2601 contract oscillated and rebounded. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4000 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the futures price shifted from a discount to a premium. - The soybean meal 01 contract stopped falling after oscillation, rebounding after hitting a low of 2863. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the 43 - protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 2900 yuan/ton to around 2870 yuan/ton. The basis oscillated, and the futures price maintained a slight premium [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - As of October 17, the domestic soybean harvest was more than half - completed, showing variety differentiation. The remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang rose to 90%, in Anhui to 70%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 70%. The soybean harvest in Heilongjiang was almost finished, with good quality, while in North China and other regions, continuous rain led to poor quality [4]. Import Situation - In September, domestic soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Sino - US negotiations may take place at the end of this month, with soybeans being one of the three major demands. The market expects China to purchase US soybeans to ease the situation. However, domestic imports are mainly from South America, and as the cost of Brazilian soybeans rises, purchases have slowed down. As of October 17, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.21 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline, and port soybean inventories were 9.884 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline, remaining at a high level in recent years [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans are oscillating at a low level. The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. Currently, the US soybean harvest may be more than half - completed, but US soybean farmers have nowhere to sell their soybeans due to the government shutdown and受阻 aid. Sino - US negotiation expectations are boosting US soybeans [5]. Oil Mill Situation - As of October 17, the operating rate of oil mills was 59.59%, a significant increase. The soybean crushing volume was 2.166 million tons, returning to a high level. Oil mill soybean inventories reached 7.687 million tons, hitting a new high in recent years. Soybean meal production was 1.711 million tons, a significant increase. Oil mill soybean meal inventories were 976,200 tons, a further month - on - month decline, and the unexecuted soybean meal contracts were 5.007 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans has declined [5]. Feed Demand Situation - In the livestock farming sector, pig prices rebounded after a sharp decline, but farming is still in significant losses. As of October 17, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, with losses widening. Leading pig enterprises are also facing losses. Policy regulation is insufficient and has a lagging effect. Although the production capacity has been adjusted downward to some extent, the decline is not large, and the pig inventory is still growing due to inertia. - In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded and then fell again. Laying hen farming is back in the red, and the culling rate is insufficient. The inventory in September continued to grow and remained at a historical high. Feed demand is strong. As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory days of feed mills were 7.93 days, continuing to decline [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand are slightly weak. Coupled with the recent weak macro - sentiment, the market has adjusted. The strategy is range - bound. This week, an important meeting is held, and attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, and from Brazil was 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons [4]. - As of October 17th, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 473,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.66%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77%. The mine concentrate inventory was 933,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,400 tons [4]. - The global shipping volume stopped falling and rebounded week - on - week, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian mines and non - mainstream mines. The arrival volume decreased, and the domestic ore output increased slightly. Overall, the supply was relatively stable [5]. Demand - In the week of October 17th, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.059 million tons. The profitability rate continued to decline, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There was some support from rigid demand for restocking, but the steel mill's profit level continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 23 to 124. The port inventory and the number of ships at the port increased significantly, increasing the port inventory pressure, while the steel mill's inventory remained at a low level [4]. Price and Related Indicators - The spot price fluctuated and declined [6]. - The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [4]. - The steel mill's profitability rate declined, and the imported ore price fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [4]. - The PB powder - Super Special powder spread and the PB powder - Macfarlane powder spread fluctuated at a low level [12][16]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated little, and the 01 basis fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the coking coal market was generally strong, with both supply and demand showing signs of recovery, but policy and sentiment disturbances increased market volatility. Coking coal is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5]. - Last week, the coke market oscillated strongly, and the second round of spot price increases was initiated. Coke is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of policy expectations and changes in demand at the finished product end [6]. Summaries by Sections Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The开工 rate of 523 sample mines and the daily average output of clean coal increased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of 314 coal washing plants also increased slightly. However, due to safety inspections and over - production checks, the supply recovery space is limited [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained stable at a high level, and the available days of coking coal for steel mills and coking plants increased slightly, indicating that rigid demand is still supported [5]. - Inventory: Except for a significant decline in port inventory, mines, coal washing plants, and downstream sectors all saw inventory accumulation, and downstream sectors still have some inventory replenishment momentum [5]. - Summary: In the short term, the fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not significant. The expectation of supply contraction and winter storage demand jointly support prices, but the upside is still restricted by the profit of finished products and the effect of policy implementation [5]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke for coking plants returned below the break - even line, and the production willingness of coking enterprises decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate and output decreased month - on - month [6]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained stable, the inventory usage cycle of steel mills decreased slightly, and rigid demand was resilient [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreased, the port inventory remained stable, and the overall explicit inventory decreased, indicating that the market supply - demand structure is approaching a tight balance [6]. - Summary: In the short term, the coke fundamentals are tight. The second round of price increases is likely to be implemented, but the future continuous increase space may be limited. Coke is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate at a high level [6]. Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, and completion areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, but no specific analysis is provided [8][11][15][17] Coking Coal Supply - demand Tracking - Coking coal spot prices have risen [21]. - Mines have shifted from destocking to stockpiling, and the inventory of coal washing plants has gradually recovered [34]. - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a high level [47]. Coke Supply - demand Tracking - The second round of price increases for coke has been initiated, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation rhythm [55]. - Due to cost increases, the profit per ton of coke for coking enterprises has fallen below the break - even line [59]. - Independent coking plants have slightly reduced their inventory, and steel mills have shifted from previous inventory replenishment to destocking [69]. - The port coke inventory has stabilized [73].

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251020" and focuses on the steel industry [2] - The analysts are Zhou Guisheng and Duan Yiwen [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with cost support and attention to macro changes and demand [6] Group 4: Summary by Section 1.成材 (Finished Products) Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 2.0116 million tons (-22,400 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils is 3.2184 million tons (-14,500 tons) [5] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1975 million tons (+665,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils was 3.1555 million tons (+205,400 tons) [5] Inventory - Rebar total inventory is 6.4105 million tons (-185,900 tons), social inventory is 4.5641 million tons (-108,900 tons), and steel mill inventory is 1.8464 million tons (-77,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory is 4.1919 million tons (+62,900 tons), social inventory is 3.4134 million tons (+120,400 tons), and steel mill inventory is 778,500 tons (-57,500 tons) [7] Basis - The futures fluctuate, and the basis fluctuates [7] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate has shrunk, iron - water production has decreased but remains high. Some steel mills are under maintenance, blast - furnace operating rate is flat, short - process production has increased, and the total rebar output has decreased slightly. After the holiday, demand has recovered but is still at a low level year - on - year. Inventory has decreased but remains high, and there is still inventory pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coils is weakly balanced, with a slight decrease in production, high inventory, and limited improvement in demand. Terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are under pressure. Pay attention to macro changes and demand, and the cost side still has support. Short - term fluctuations are expected [6] 2. Raw Materials - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1,575 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [13][14] 3. Production and Operation Indicators - As of October 17, 2025, the blast - furnace operating rate remained flat, the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and iron - water production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons month - on - month [19] - As of October 17, the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87% month - on - month [24] - As of October 17, the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 91.68%, an increase of 1.68% month - on - month [29] 4. Demand and Sales - Rebar consumption increased by 665,700 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 205,400 tons month - on - month [39] - As of October 17, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 97,700 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level [43] - As of October 17, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 30,160 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 874,100 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons month - on - month [48] 5. Inventory - As of October 17, Tangshan billet inventory was 444,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons month - on - month. The total inventory of major steel products was 11.2552 million tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons month - on - month [52] 6. Exports - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [66] 7. Downstream Industries Automotive - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, an increase of 466,000 vehicles month - on - month; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles month - on - month; new - energy vehicle sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [70] Real Estate - From January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Housing new - start area decreased by 18.9%, housing completion area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year (with a narrowing decline), new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year (with a 0.8% decline), new - built commercial housing sales revenue decreased by 7.9% year - on - year (with a 0.6% decline), and the funds available to development enterprises decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [73]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon supply is slightly increasing with a north - south difference, while the demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November. The inventory clearance pressure remains, and the short - term industrial silicon futures are expected to fluctuate within a range. For polysilicon, the current supply - demand is weak with large inventory pressure. Although industry meetings have boosted market confidence, the short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation due to weak terminal demand [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures price of the main contract dropped in oscillation, closing at 8,430 yuan/ton on October 17 [6][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang silicon enterprises continued to increase production, reaching the annual high since September. The start - up in Northwest Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu changed little. Yunnan's start - up was stable but will decline in November due to electricity price hikes. Sichuan's start - up slightly decreased. Overall, production increased slightly but is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production remained stable, with a weakening production expectation due to the difference in silicon material enterprises' production scheduling. Organic silicon start - up decreased, and monomer plants carried out routine maintenance. Aluminum alloy enterprises' start - up rate remained stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remained high. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 562,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons compared to before the holiday [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures price of the main contract rebounded in oscillation, closing at 52,340 yuan/ton on October 17 [7][17]. - **Supply**: Industry meetings were held, and although rumors about stockpiling were mostly false, the industry's capacity clearance and anti - involution continued, and market confidence recovered. The production in October increased month - on - month but will significantly decrease in November due to the dry season [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state, and large - scale transactions are expected to start next week. The production scheduling in the silicon wafer segment in Q4 may exceed expectations, which will support the demand for polysilicon. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%, and the export volume was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price and Spread**: The spot and spread between the benchmark and alternative delivery products of industrial silicon remained stable. As of October 17, the spread between Yunnan's industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [12][14]. - **Polysilicon Price and Spread**: The spot and spread between the benchmark and alternative delivery products of polysilicon remained stable. As of October 17, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, and over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [19][21]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica**: As of October 17, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1,140 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 1,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang's was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [23][25]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 17, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong Port was 1,505 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan's was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan's was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [27][29]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 17, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and charcoal was 2,450 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The price of high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu was 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31][33]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 17, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.375, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively. The price of 210RN silicon wafers has shown signs of loosening, and the actual production scheduling in the silicon wafer segment in Q4 may exceed the quota [36]. - **Batteries**: As of October 17, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries were 0.318, 0.318, 0.287, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with different price changes from last week. The prices of 183N and 210N increased slightly, while 210RN was weak due to oversupply [40]. - **Components**: As of October 17, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components increased slightly, but the transaction was stagnant. Terminal demand remained weak, and attention should be paid to the start - up of large - scale centralized power station projects [43]. Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 17, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The start - up decreased due to routine maintenance of monomer plants [45][47]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 17, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon remained high [49][51].