1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: In November, PTA was in a balanced state. With multiple device overhauls implemented and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the supply pressure was relieved, and the spot processing fee was repaired. In December, the inventory accumulation expectation decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around a wide - balance, with an optimistic outlook on the absolute price [1][10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price of MEG dropped to a near - three - year low due to the long - term oversupply situation. After some device shutdowns, the load declined, and it was expected to decline slightly in December. Although overseas supply was abundant, the recent improvement in the supply - demand situation limited the downside space of the futures price [2][10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The short - fiber operating load was at a high level with good inventory, but the spot processing fee decreased compared to last month. The bottle - chip was still the segment with the greatest supply - demand pressure in the polyester industry, and its spot processing fee narrowed. The overall resilience of the polyester load delayed the inventory accumulation expectation of raw materials [2][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Logic - PTA: Multiple device overhauls since November alleviated the pressure of new capacity. The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to exports. With reduced supply, the spot processing fee was repaired, and the December inventory accumulation expectation decreased [10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price hit a near - three - year low due to long - term oversupply. After some device shutdowns, the load decreased, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas supply was abundant, but the supply - demand situation improved recently, limiting the downside space of the futures price [10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. The short - fiber had a high operating load and good inventory, while the bottle - chip had great supply - demand pressure. The terminal market was mediocre in November and might improve slightly in December. The polyester load's resilience delayed raw material inventory accumulation [11]. 3.2 PTA Overhaul Increases, Supply - Demand Pressure Eases 3.2.1 PX Pattern is Good - In November, oil prices were weak. PX had a strong supply - demand structure. Its inventory was low, and new capacity was expected to be supplied in the second half of next year, with concentrated overhauls in the second quarter. The PX - N spread rose above $260/ton [15]. 3.2.2 PTA Supply Narrows, Processing Fee Improves Slightly - This year, three new PTA devices were put into operation, increasing the effective capacity by 10% compared to the end of last year. In November, multiple device overhauls postponed the new capacity pressure. With polyester operating at over 91%, the PTA supply - demand was in a wide - balance. The spot processing fee recovered from below 100 yuan/ton to 150 - 200 yuan/ton, but the industry was still in an overall loss [17][21]. 3.2.3 PTA Balance Forecast - The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to China's PTA exports in the short term. In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports to India were 20.1 million tons. In November, the PTA output was 6.26 billion tons with a 10 - million - ton inventory increase. In December, the first half - month had less supply pressure, and the overall market was not pessimistic [24][25]. 3.3 MEG Supply - Demand Improves, Short - term Downside Space is Limited 3.3.1 Supply Narrows - In late October, the MEG load reached a recent high, and the supply was abundant. In the long - term, new devices added to the supply pressure, causing the price to hit a near - three - year low. Since November, the load has dropped by about 2%, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas, the overall supply was high [30]. 3.3.2 Overseas Supply is Not Low - Currently, the overall domestic and overseas supply is abundant. In December, Middle - East supplies will shrink moderately. Since September, the East China terminal inventory has nearly doubled, and the import volume in October increased to 654,000 tons, expected to continue rising in November and December [35][36]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Forecast - In late November, the MEG factory inventory decreased, and the polyester factory's raw material inventory increased slightly. In December, with the polyester load at 90 - 91%, MEG was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the downside space was not overly pessimistic [38]. 3.4 Downstream Demand is Resilient 3.4.1 Polyester Improves Month - on - Month - In November, the polyester load was maintained at around 91.3%. The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. In November, two new filament devices were put into operation, and two more will be released in December, increasing the demand for raw materials. The short - fiber production increased significantly in November, with good inventory control. The export growth rate was high, and the market was expected to follow raw material fluctuations. The bottle - chip supply pressure was high, the processing fee was weak, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with limited future driving forces [44][51][62]. 3.4.2 Terminal Demand is Average - In terms of domestic demand, from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth of retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 3.5%. In October, the domestic retail sales increased by 7%. In terms of exports, in October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.6%. From January to October, the cumulative export was $243.94 billion. The weaving order days decreased in November, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped to 72%. Domestic sales demand weakened, and exports might improve slightly [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market for soybeans and soybean meal is in a state of oscillation. Domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with Northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. The import of US soybeans may return to normal, ensuring sufficient soybean supply. Oil mills' operating rates are average, and soybean meal inventory remains high, while demand is strong. The soybean No. 1 contract will return to an oscillatory state, and soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory trend [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The soybeans No. 1 2601 contract continues to oscillate. The spot price is stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans No. 1 oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market is maintained. - The main soybean meal contract is shifting to 2605, showing an oscillatory trend. The spot price of soybean meal has a slight increase, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 2,980 yuan/ton to around 3,020 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market narrows [5] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales and Supply - The sales of domestic soybeans are relatively fast. The production of new - season domestic soybeans has slightly decreased to 20.9 million tons, and the quality in North China and other regions is differentiated, with high - protein soybeans in the Northeast being popular. As of November 28, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 74%, in Anhui to 73%, in Henan to 76%, and in Shandong to 81%. Recently, the auction of state - reserve soybeans has been suspended [5] 3.3 Import and Inventory of Soybeans - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is high, and the port soybean inventory is sufficient. In October, China imported 9.48 million tons of soybeans, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, the import of US soybeans will return to normal. Although China and the US have mutually reduced tariffs, a 10% basic tariff remains, so the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 28, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.405 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period; the port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period [5] 3.4 US Soybean Market - US soybeans are undergoing high - level adjustments. The November supply - demand report of the US Department of Agriculture has reduced the yield per unit and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The production in South America has not been adjusted, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases [5] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the soybean meal inventory has increased again. As of November 28, the operating rate of oil mills was 60.54%, a decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level in recent years; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2008 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period. The soybean meal production was 1.7386 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.2032 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period and at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 3.881 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.17 days, rebounding compared to the previous period [6] 3.6 Feed Demand - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and farming is suffering significant losses. As of November 28, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 248.82 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 147.99 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory in large - scale farms is delayed, with a slight increase in the inventory in October; the number of piglets born has increased again, while the sales volume has continued to decline, reflecting a weak mentality of replenishing the herd; the number of pigs held for fattening and secondary fattening has increased. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, the egg price has dropped again, and farming continues to suffer losses, with an increase in the number of culled poultry. The inventory in October decreased slightly from the previous month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decline from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year; feed demand remains strong [7]

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, analyzing their prices, supply, demand, cost, inventory, and providing后市研判 [6][8] Industrial Silicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygenated was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the 421 oxygenated was 9,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton [6][11] Supply - Xinjiang's开工率 remained stable with a slight expected increase next week; Northwest regions had little change; Yunnan's开工率 was expected to decline in December due to higher costs; Sichuan's开工率 would further decrease in December. Overall, production increased slightly [6] Demand - Polysilicon's weekly开工率 decreased, with mixed production expectations in December; organic silicon's开工率 increased slightly, with a potential decline in December; aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 was stable, supported by good terminal demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6] Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6] Inventory - As of November 27, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [7] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and high inventory is being depleted slowly. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with attention on northern开工 changes and downstream production cuts [7] Polysilicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The futures main contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Silicon material enterprises were firm on price stability. In November, two leading enterprises significantly reduced production, and the polysilicon output decreased significantly compared to October. The weekly开工率 decreased, and the production expectations in December were mixed, with a limited decrease compared to November [8] Demand - Terminal demand is weak, with component prices weakly stable, and silicon wafer and battery prices continuing to fall. The silicon wafer segment has reduced production, but there is no significant reduction in procurement plans. In October, polysilicon imports were 1,446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, exports were 1,547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8] Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8] Inventory - As of November 28, the polysilicon factory inventory was 278,300 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons from the previous week [8][26] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are weak, and inventory remains high. Supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations, it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term, with attention on policy implementation [8] Downstream Markets Silicon Wafers - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased compared to the previous week. Prices are approaching most manufacturers' cash cost lines, and significant production cuts are expected in December [30] Batteries - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared to the previous week. The battery market is weakening, with increased price declines and weakened demand support. Some leading enterprises may lock in inventory to support prices [34] Components - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components remained unchanged from the previous week. The component market is weakly stable, with a weak distributed market. Leading enterprises hold firm on prices, while second - and third - tier manufacturers still sell at low prices [38] Organic Silicon - As of November 28, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The industry's开工率 increased slightly this week, and there are expectations of production cuts after the industry meeting [42] Aluminum Alloys - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 is basically stable, with good terminal demand [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].

研 究 院 货 金 融 多重利好，铜价再创历史新高 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 融 研 究 院 议息会议将至，市场继续提高美联储降息预期。美国巨量买盘导致智利提高美国铜现货升水，中国冶炼行业酝酿联 合减产，同时芝商所火灾也扩大了市场波动，周五伦铜大涨创历史新高。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但 房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货 铜上涨。 弘 业 期 货 金 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报89280，现货报89260，沪铜高位震荡，现货较期货贴水-20点。今日现货基差升水上升 至110点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周大幅升水45美元，外盘现货需求明显好转。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高， 伦铜库存上升，沪铜库存小幅下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价下降至30美元的新低，上涨后国 内现货需求不足。铜价伦沪比下降至7.96，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1109点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史 ...

研 究 院 货 金 铝价再度转强，有望挑战前高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 研 究 院 周五美国感恩节假期，市场继续加强美联储降息预期。周五芝商所故障导致交易中断，本身假期流动性不足， 导致市场波动被放大。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民 币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报21865，现货报21720，现货较期货贴水-145点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水扩大至-60 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存小幅下降，氧化铝库存上升。上期所铝库存小幅下降，现货需求一 般。LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-26美元，海外现货需求不佳。人民币汇率本周大涨，铝价沪伦比本周下 降至7.58，内外盘走势大体相当。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大涨创近期新高，伦铝小幅上涨，在2878美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨，收于21865，技 术形态偏强。沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪乐观。本周国内电解铝 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251201" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro - expectations and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December. The fundamentals of steel products show mixed trends, with some products facing challenges in supply, demand, and inventory [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Product Analysis Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in China was 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 319.01 million tons (+3 million tons). Rebar long - process output decreased by 4.43 million tons, and short - process output increased by 2.55 million tons. Hot - rolled coil output increased but remained at a high level [5][35] Demand - Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 320.22 million tons (-4.2 million tons). The construction steel weekly average trading volume was 10.45 million tons, remaining at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil weekly average trading volume was 3.36 million tons [5][44][49] Inventory - Rebar total inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), with social inventory at 384.75 million tons (-15.27 million tons) and steel mill inventory at 146.73 million tons (-6.59 million tons). Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21 million tons), social inventory was 322.88 million tons (-1.21 million tons), and steel mill inventory remained unchanged [7] Basis - The basis of the rebar main contract was 140 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), showing a weakening trend [13] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The molten iron output was 234.68 million tons, a 1.6 million - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 1.17% [7] Raw Material Analysis - The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, main coking coal in Lvliang, and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port were 1450 yuan/ton, 1505 yuan/ton, and 794 yuan/ton respectively this week, with week - on - week changes of - 30 yuan/ton, - 140 yuan/ton, and +6 yuan/ton [16][17] Market and Related Data Steel Export - In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [64] Automobile Production and Sales - In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [68] Real Estate Data - From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales amount decreased by 9.6% year - on - year, and the available funds decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [71][72]

郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/28 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 核心观点 市场对增产仍有预期，较高成本皮棉等待套保机会，较低成本皮棉可顺价出售，郑棉套保压力不集中， 不过仍有套保压力；下游需求一般，产成品累库不过整体库存压力不大。现货皮棉基差坚挺、年底下游补 库预期支撑；上方有增产及套保压力，市场暂缺新驱动，预期郑棉短期内维持震荡；长期来看或有上涨机 会。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 美棉销售进度偏慢，中国签约量少 美农周度出口报告显示，截止10月9日当周，2025/26年度美棉总签售量为106.55万吨，占年度预测总出 口量的41%，同比偏慢9个百分点，较过去三年同期均值偏慢15个百分点；累计出口装运量为31.85万吨，占 年度总签约量的30%，较去年同期偏快6个百分点，是近四年同期最快。其中，中国对本年度美棉的签约量仅 有2.8万吨。 国内新棉销售同比偏快 截至11月25日，全国新棉检验量为386.9万吨，同比增加15.88%。 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 据国家棉花市场监测调查数据显示，截至2025年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market is expected to see its processing fees and absolute prices continue to run strongly, with attention on cost - side support and potential impacts from India's BIS certification and long - term contract prices [4]. - The pure benzene market is expected to have a relatively loose supply, and it will be in a low - level oscillation, with focus on exports and potential changes in South Korean disproportionation plants [5]. - The styrene market is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, following cost - side fluctuations, and future trends depend on consumption policies and macro - news [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are in a low - level oscillation, with weak support. Naphtha price is $557, and PX CFR price is $829. Sinopec's December PX listed price is 6,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last month [4]. - **Supply**: This week's PX output is 752,600 tons, a 0.6% increase from last week. The domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.74%, up 0.53%. Some plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.29%, down 1.89% from last week and 6.74% year - on - year [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: PX fundamentals are strong due to continuous de - stocking, but the "peak season" failed to meet expectations. It is expected to run strongly if there are no unexpected cost - side disturbances [4]. Pure Benzene Market - **Concerns**: Geopolitical situation and US - South Korea arbitrage window [5]. - **Futures and Spot**: The pure benzene futures contract has rebounded slightly, and the basis difference between futures and spot has widened. The market is under cost - side pressure [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week's output is 446,700 tons, a 1.67% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67%, down 1.31%. Supply exceeds demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 164,000 tons, with significant inventory accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Most downstream products are in a loss, but some are expected to improve. Disproportionation plants' losses are increasing [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: New capacities have led to increased domestic output, and the overall supply is expected to be loose, with the market in a low - level oscillation [5]. Styrene Market - **Futures and Spot Performance**: The styrene futures contract has rebounded, but cost - side weakness suppresses prices. Spot prices have declined [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: As of November 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants is - 159 yuan/ton, with a reduced loss [6]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week's styrene output is 334,700 tons, a 2.39% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 67.29%, down 1.66% [6]. - **Downstream**: ABS, PS, EPS, and UPR have increased output, but the overall industry profitability is not good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the port inventory in Jiangsu has increased, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation [6]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Styrene is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation after the holiday has limited impact on high port inventories [7].