1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices fluctuated upward this week due to cost support. International oil prices showed a slight upward - fluctuating trend, and the domestic PX devices operated stably. The demand side of PTA performed well, and the polyester industry maintained high - level operation. Also, news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea and petrochemical industry policy news boosted the PX price [9]. - PTA prices went up due to cost support and unplanned device shutdowns. The news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea pushed up the PX market, which was beneficial to PTA. A 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China shut down unexpectedly, leading to inventory reduction from August to September. Traders were reluctant to sell, and the spot basis strengthened. Meanwhile, the polyester industry gradually increased its operation rate in anticipation of the peak demand season [9]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines. - Crude oil: Geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and the market will mainly choose to wait and see. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. - PX: A total of 1.6 - million - ton PX devices in South China are planned to start operation successively this week. The rigid demand for spot purchases from newly - put - into - operation PTA devices will support PX demand. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China will restart, but it cannot offset the impact of the shutdown of a 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China. In addition, the low processing fees of PTA continue, and there may be other unplanned device overhauls. - Polyester: There is no clear plan for polyester device overhauls next week. As the traditional peak demand season approaches, manufacturers' tolerance for inventory increases, and the market supply pressure of polyester factories will be low in the future. - Weaving: Demand is marginally improving, and there are expectations for the peak season. - Overall: PX will fluctuate strongly in the range of 6,850 - 7,050 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate strongly in the range of 4,750 - 4,950 yuan/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Main Sections of the Report 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX Futures - The news of naphtha production cuts in South Korea boosted the PX futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PX main contract rose from 6,688 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 278 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.16%. The settlement price rose from 6,682 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.25%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 171 yuan/ton; the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,689.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.44% [15][17][19]. 3.1.2 PTA Futures - The unplanned device overhauls boosted the PTA futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PTA main contract rose from 4,716 yuan/ton to 4,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.20%. The settlement price rose from 4,708 yuan/ton to 4,864 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.34%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.55%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,744.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.35% [21][23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Device - Domestic PX device operation: Devices of many enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical are operating at different loads. Some devices have experienced load changes, shutdowns, and restarts. - Asian other PX device operation: Devices of enterprises in many countries and regions such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea have different operation statuses, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and load changes. - The domestic PX device operating rate has recovered. From August 18th to August 22nd, it was 85.22%, compared with 84.97% from August 11th to August 15th [31][33][35]. 3.2.2 PTA Device - Multiple PTA devices are under maintenance, including those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Fuhai Chuang. The planned maintenance period ranges from several months to more than a month. - Unplanned device overhauls have led to a slight price increase, and the weekly operating rate has decreased by 1.21% [38][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Affected by the Russia - Ukraine conflict, international oil prices fluctuated this week. On August 22nd, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 63.66 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.86 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67.22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.37 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th. - Naphtha: The average weekly CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578.45 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 49.78 US dollars/ton. The supply in Asia has generally shrunk, and demand has been supported, leading to an increase in prices. - PX spot: The average weekly CFR price of PX in the Chinese main port was 843.36 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.55% compared with the previous period; the average weekly FOB price in South Korea was 819 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.61% compared with the previous period. The trading volume increased by 65,000 tons compared with the previous period [46][54][57]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The weekly average value of PXN was 265.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 2.13%. The PX - MX continued to rise, with a weekly average value of 135.50 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: From August 18th to August 22nd, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 202.93 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the previous week's average of 206.76 yuan/ton. It has not returned to the industry's average break - even point. - Inventory: As of August 22nd, the PTA social inventory was 4.468 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons compared with the previous week, with a change rate of - 0.58%. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories have increased. As of August 21st, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.71 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days [60][64][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The prices of some polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 18th to August 22nd was estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 87.17%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.45%. - Weaving: The downstream has replenished inventory due to price expectations. The inventory of filament yarn has continued to transfer downward. As of August 21st, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 13.80 days, 22.70 days, and 27.80 days respectively. The domestic weaving market has gradually started, but the export orders are still relatively dull. The profit of grey fabric production has been compressed, but it is expected to improve in the future [76][82][90].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Report Date and Author - The report is dated August 25, 2025, and the author is Bai Jing from the research institute, with the qualification number F03097282 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018999 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday night increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, leading to a volatile rebound in commodity prices. Fundamentally, both shipments and arrivals decreased this period, and with pre - parade safety inspections at domestic mines, the short - term supply contraction expectation strengthened. Iron ore production remained at a high level but was expected to decline due to end - of - month northern production restrictions. The 01 contract has strong support at $95 (762), and the price may fluctuate in the range of $95 - $100 in the short term [11] Summary by Section Part 1: Fundamentals and Conclusion Price and Inventory - Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot fluctuated. As of August 22, the Platts 62% index closed at $100.35, down $1.45 week - on - week, equivalent to about 839 yuan at the exchange rate of 7.18. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 789 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot. China's 47 - port iron ore inventory increased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. It is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [7] Supply - Global iron ore shipments totaled 3315.8 tons this period, a decrease of 90.8 tons week - on - week. Shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 2692.7 tons, an increase of 23.0 tons. Australian shipments increased by 276.8 tons to 1881.0 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 310.7 tons to 1658.2 tons. Brazilian shipments decreased by 253.8 tons to 811.7 tons. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China totaled 2462.3 tons, a decrease of 240.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily iron ore production of 247 sample steel mills increased this period, reaching 240.75 tons/day, an increase of 0.09 tons/day week - on - week. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, iron ore production may decline next period. As of August 22, the long - process cash - in - hand cost and profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China were provided, and the electric - furnace cost and profit were also given [9][10] Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - The report provides the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is Newman powder with a warehouse receipt price of 789 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal is PB powder with a warehouse receipt price of 797 yuan/ton [16] Iron Ore Inter - delivery Spread - As of August 22, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 19 (+3) [19] Premium Index - As of August 21, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.181 (+0.001), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 16 (-) [29] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of August 22, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills was 1254, a decrease of 63.6 (-4.83%) week - on - week; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8, a decrease of 2.3 (-2.63%); the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 (-4.76%) [35] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of August 22, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills was 9065.7, a decrease of 70.70 (-0.77%) week - on - week; the daily consumption was 297.8, a decrease of 0.68 (-0.23%); the inventory - to - sales ratio was 30.4, a decrease of 0.17 (-0.56%) [38] Port Inventory and Berthing - The report presents the historical data and trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, and trade ore inventory in 45 ports [41] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 22, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1744, an increase of 56 (3.32%); the inventory of pellet ore was 307, a decrease of 18 (-5.39%); the inventory of iron concentrate was 1102, an increase of 7 (0.64%); the inventory of coarse powder was 10692, a decrease of 20 (-0.18%) [44] Shipment Volume - The report provides the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [46][47] Iron Ore Import Quantity - The report shows the historical import volume data of the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [52][53][54][55][56][57][58] Australian Iron Ore Shipments - As of August 22, Australian shipments to China were 1658, an increase of 311 (23.06%) week - on - week; total Australian shipments were 1881, an increase of 276.8 (17.25%); the proportion of shipments to China was 88.16%, an increase of 4.2% (4.95%) [62] Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - As of August 22, Brazilian shipments to the world were 812, a decrease of 254 (-23.82%) week - on - week [67] Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of August 22, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 103 (20.74%); BHP's shipments decreased by 15 (-3.82%); Vale's shipments decreased by 214 (-27.18%); FMG's shipments increased by 172 (70.40%) [68] Iron Ore Arrivals - As of August 22, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2393, a decrease of 83 (-3.4%) week - on - week; the arrivals at northern ports were 1153, a decrease of 100 (-7.9%) week - on - week [75] Freight Rates - The report shows the historical freight rate data of Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao and Western Australia - Qingdao [77] Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - As of August 22, the production of iron concentrate in mines was 76.8, a decrease of 2.1 (-2.67%) week - on - week; the inventory of iron concentrate in mines was 33, a decrease of 2 (-4.74%) [79] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 22, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.3, an increase of 0.03 (0.03%); the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.8, a decrease of 0.36 (-0.59%); the daily consumption of domestic sintered powder was 8.4, a decrease of 0.30 (-3.46%) [81] Pig Iron Production - The report provides the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 - 2025, as well as the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [88] Global Pig Iron Production - The report shows the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [91] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - The report presents the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, as well as the month - on - month and year - on - year changes [96]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply contraction concern persists, and the downside space for lithium carbonate prices is limited. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [1][4][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate prices opened high and closed low, with a weekly decline of 7.39%. Trading volume reached 4.32 million lots (-310,000), and open interest reached 362,300 lots (-38,800). The basis premium was 4,940 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Lithium concentrate imports rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [12][16]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [19]. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. In July, lithium carbonate imports dropped to 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. In July, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [25][27]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In July, lithium hydroxide exports were 1,248 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 86.3% [33]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 75,886 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [36]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary material production was 16,565 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. In July, imports increased and exports decreased [39]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In July, exports increased [42]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [43]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, electrolyte production was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In July, exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [50]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In July, power battery production was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8%. Power battery installations were 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [53]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. Sales were 1.262 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [56]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, energy storage battery production was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [61]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [64]. 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices declined. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by $53/ton, and the price of lithium mica dropped by 190 yuan/ton [68]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 713 tons. Structurally, smelter inventory decreased by 2,847 tons, downstream inventory increased by 3,224 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 1,441 tons, and ternary material inventory increased by 321 tons [74][75]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: After an over - decline, short - term long positions can be taken, and options can be appropriately bought for protection; buy straddle options. The operating range is 70,000 - 100,000. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250825: Fluctuations Amplified Again, Protect Positions" [1] 2. Core View - On August 22, 2025, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures fluctuated downward. The short - term supply and demand both strengthened, with high carbonate lithium production, rising downstream demand, and social inventory destocking. The short - term fundamentals changed little, and it was necessary to guard against the repeated "anti - involution" sentiment. It was expected that the carbonate lithium price would fluctuate widely. Operationally, short - term, interval trading was recommended, and one could buy on dips and appropriately purchase options for protection [2]. 3. Key Data Summary Futures Market - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and others on August 22, 2025 were 79180, 79180, 78620, 78620, 78960 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to August 21 [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures on August 22 was 932675 hands, an increase of 154848 hands compared to August 21 [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the active contract on August 22 was 362254 hands, a decrease of 27815 hands compared to August 21 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices of Lithium - Related Products**: Most lithium - related products' prices decreased on August 22 compared to August 21. For example, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium decreased by 1300 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium also decreased by 1300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The SMM carbonate lithium inventory data showed that the total inventory on August 21 was 141543 tons, a decrease of 713 tons compared to the previous total [2]. 4. Industry News - A rumored "capacity clearance" document was confirmed, and a closed - door meeting of the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen [2]. - Dazhong Mining (001203) is applying for a lithium mining license in Hunan. It plans to put the first - phase 20,000 - ton lithium mining, beneficiation and smelting project in Hunan into production in 2026, and has achieved by - product ore revenue in the first half of 2025. The Sichuan lithium mine will start producing and selling raw ore this year [2]. - Premier African Minerals completed the second - phase trial operation of the main flotation plant of its Zulu project in Zimbabwe on August 21. The plant can operate continuously as expected, and the grade of lithium oxide in the lithium concentrate has reached 6.2% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the expected rebound space is limited. The upstream coal - head profit is high, the downstream profit is poor, and the methanol valuation is relatively expensive. The return of domestic and imported supplies drives the methanol price down. With high raw - material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, there is little demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely, resulting in weak upward drivers for methanol [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 22, 2025, MA01 closed at 2405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2384 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2294 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.86%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices mostly decreased or remained stable. For example, in太仓, it was 2295 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.65%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.43%); in Inner Mongolia, it increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.36%) to 2077.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with the exception of Datong Q5500 coal, which decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) to 577.5 yuan/ton [1]. b. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 373.7 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 422 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest MTO remained at 102 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 67.5 yuan/ton (13.61%) to - 428.57 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Product Profits**: Profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased by 13.75 yuan/ton (5.93%) to 245.57 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE increased by 30 yuan/ton (76.69%) to 69.12 yuan/ton, while the profit of one product decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-33.56%) to 198 yuan/ton [1]. c. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated and declined, opening at 2421 yuan/ton and closing at 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 377,483 lots, and the open interest was 698,146, with reduced volume and increased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Recent far - month arrivals of cargoes from a Middle - Eastern country were traded at +0.3 - 0.5%. Multiple methanol plants were operating stably, and the later operation dynamics should be monitored [1]. d. Trading Strategy - The previous day, MA oscillated within a range, and the night session rebounded slightly to close at 2429. The Friday - night rebound of methanol was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal boosting the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the futures market [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, Trump threatened economic sanctions on Russia and Ukraine if they don't talk, and with global central banks continuously buying gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when prices decline [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of spot Shanghai Gold T+D was 773.40, down 1.72 from the previous day and 4.26 from the previous week; the closing price of the futures active contract was 9192.00, up 30.00 from the previous day and down 66.00 from the previous week. The closing price of London Gold Spot was 3334.25 dollars/ounce, down 4.05 from the previous day and 9.60 from the previous week. The closing price of London Silver Spot was 38.01 dollars/ounce, up 0.44 from the previous day and down 0.31 from the previous week [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of spot Shanghai Gold T+D on August 22, 2025, was 21306.00, down 918.00 from the previous day and up 2276.00 from the previous week. The open interest of the futures active contract was 303690.00, down 3408.00 from the previous day and 47052.00 from the previous week [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (spot - futures) of gold on August 22, 2025, was - 1.77, up 1.69 from the previous day and 1.09 from the previous week. The spread (near - far) of gold was - 16.00, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.00 from the previous week [1] Important Information - **Fed and Interest Rates**: Wall Street Journal reporter Mick Timiraos said that Powell signaled a September rate cut while suggesting the market should not expect aggressive easing. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in mainly short - term Treasury bonds in Q3 to replenish the cash account, and the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool usage is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. US inflation data in July increased, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] - **International Politics**: Trump said that if the leaders of Russia and Ukraine don't hold a direct meeting within two weeks, he will make "very important decisions", possibly "large - scale sanctions or tariffs" [1] - **Global Central Banks**: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1] Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to lay out long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: London Gold has support around 3200 - 3300 and resistance around 3400 - 3500; Shanghai Gold has support around 760 - 770 and resistance around 800 - 810; London Silver has support around 34 - 36 and resistance around 37 - 40; Shanghai Silver has support around 8500 - 8700 and resistance around 9100 - 9500 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: "Black Metal Weekly - Steel" [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained fluctuating at a high level, and the supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. Due to the expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade, raw material prices were firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no driving force for a sharp decline. The short - term trend may be volatile, and the valuation of the 01 - contract rebar may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Conclusion - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained at a high - level fluctuation. The supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. The expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade made raw material prices firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no deep - decline driving force. The short - term may show a volatile trend, and the 01 - contract rebar valuation may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Part 2: Supply - Demand Fundamentals Price - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. In East China, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan (- 40), Tangshan rebar was 3170 yuan (- 60); for hot - rolled coils, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (- 70), Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (- 40) [9]. Production - As of August 21, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.9 tons per day, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 tons; the short - process daily consumption was 17.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons [8][10][79]. Inventory - As of August 21, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.3 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 26.37 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The original sample rebar factory inventory was 174.53 tons (+ 2.27), the social inventory was 432.51 tons (+ 17.58), and the total inventory was 607.04 tons (+ 19.85). For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [8][10][79]. Cost and Profit - As of August 22, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3147.5 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 102.5 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 152.5 yuan. The flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3344 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3216 yuan, with a flat - rate electricity profit of about 138 yuan and an off - peak electricity profit of - 26 yuan [8]. Macro Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024. In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016. The PMI in July was 49.3%. From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; the manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; the real - estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][22][27]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [30]. Other Parts - **Main Variety Basis**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Main Variety Inter - period**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Arbitrage Strategy Tracking**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Supply (Long - process)**: As of August 22, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3% (+ 0.03), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons (+ 0.09) [44]. - **Supply (Short - process)**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 35.7% (- 0.6); as of August 22, the iron - scrap price difference was 10.87 yuan (+ 48.2) [47]. - **Scrap Steel Arrival**: The total daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 53.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.47 tons, an increase of 9% [8]. - **Scrap Steel Daily Consumption**: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [8]. - **Scrap Steel Inventory in Steel Mills**: The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7% [8]. - **Rebar Production**: The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), of which the long - process output was 184.87 tons (- 5.38) and the short - process output was 29.78 tons (- 0.42) [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 39.87%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [71]. - **Real - Estate 30 - City Sales High - frequency Data**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.52 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [79]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Regional Social Inventory**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Plate Demand (Cold - Hot Price Difference)**: As of August 22, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton (+ 10) [86]. - **Export Situation**: As of August 21, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars (-), the export profit was - 2 US dollars (+ 2.5); the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 2.2284 million tons (- 841,500 tons) [90].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Report Summary 1. Core View - On August 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market's purchasing willingness increased, and the basis premium widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand are strengthening, the fundamentals change little, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term, range - bound operations, and buy options for protection after sharp declines [2]. 2. Market Data Summary Futures Market - **Prices**: On August 22, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three contracts and others decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 3,560 to 3,820 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 932,675 lots (+154,848), and the open interest of the active contract was 362,254 lots (-27,815) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price and the active contract's closing price changed. For example, the basis increased by 2,500 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores decreased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped by 14 dollars/ton [2]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds mostly decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/China - made) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 713 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2,847 tons, while the downstream inventory increased by 3,224 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons [2]. 3. Industry News - A so - called "capacity clearance" document was confirmed, and a closed - door meeting of the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen [2]. - Dazhong Mining (001203) plans to have its Hunan lithium mine's first - phase 20,000 - ton mining, beneficiation, and smelting project completed and put into production in 2026. The Sichuan lithium mine will start producing and selling raw ore this year [2]. - Premier African Minerals completed the second - stage trial run of its main flotation plant at the Zulu project in Zimbabwe, achieving a lithium oxide grade of up to 6.2% [2].

1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250825: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Changes Rapidly and Fluctuates Greatly [1] 2. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases ranging from 220 to 240 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume of Shanghai nickel active contracts was 111,254 hands (+20,539), and the open interest was 111,421 hands (+9,036) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel decreased by 36 tons [2]. - The price differences between different - term Shanghai nickel contracts and the basis between spot and futures contracts showed various changes [2]. LME Nickel - The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 14,915.00 US dollars (-35.00), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,100.00 US dollars (+171.00), and the on - site closing price was 15,100.00 US dollars (+171.00) [2]. - The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 7,266 hands (+4,276) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts decreased, and the trading volume of the active contract was 113,666 hands (+13,930), with an open interest of 144,460 hands (+5,650) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai stainless steel futures decreased by 16,715 tons [2]. - The price differences between different - term Shanghai stainless steel contracts and the basis between spot and futures contracts also changed [2]. Spot Market - The prices of nickel ore, nickel beans, electrolytic nickel, and other nickel - related products showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing [2]. - The prices of stainless steel products such as 304 - series and 316 - series also had various changes, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged [2]. Inventory - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 776.00 (in ten thousand wet tons), an increase of 44.00 compared to the previous week [2]. - SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained unchanged, and SMM pure nickel social inventory decreased by 1,019.00 tons [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory increased by 5,700.00 tons, with different changes in 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series inventories [2]. 3. Core Views Nickel - On August 22, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated at a low level, and the LME nickel rose 0.31%. The spot - market transaction was okay, and the basis premium narrowed [2]. - On the supply side, nickel - ore prices were flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, the loss of ferronickel plants narrowed, domestic ferronickel production decreased in August while Indonesian production increased, and domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased in August with a shrinking export profit [2]. - On the demand side, ternary - material production increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - In terms of inventory, the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. - In summary, the pure - nickel fundamentals were loose, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations were volatile, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. Stainless Steel - On August 22, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated downward, and the spot - market transaction was average, with the basis premium narrowing [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory was 62,600 tons (+8,500) last week [2]. - On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in August [2]. - On the demand side, terminal demand was weak [2]. - On the cost side, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat [2]. - In summary, the current macro - sentiment influenced the market greatly. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals, and there was cost support. Prices were expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. 4. Investment Strategy - For nickel, due to the loose fundamentals and volatile Fed interest - rate cut expectations, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For stainless steel, considering the influence of macro - sentiment, loose fundamentals, and cost support, it is also recommended to wait and see [2].