Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Weekly Report (Gold and Silver) [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Fed Chair Powell's remarks on potential policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure, have raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may lead to an upward - trending precious metals market. It is recommended that investors go long on dips [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Policies - US: The PPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate in July increased. The 8 - month one - and five - year inflation expectations were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected. The outstanding public debt was $3.72 trillion, up $96.8 billion from last week. The Treasury plans to raise cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September and issue over $1 trillion in bonds in Q3. The Fed's reserve balance decreased, while the Treasury's cash account increased. The Fed's discount and seasonal loans to commercial banks changed, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased [7][11][17] - Europe: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMIs were higher than expected. The ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - UK: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - Japan: The July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The Q2 GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [3] Market Performance - Bond Market: US short -, medium -, and long - term Treasury yields weakened. Medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields declined. The spread between long - and short - term Treasury yields widened. The spread between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury yields decreased [21][25][28][51] - Stock Market: Not mentioned in the report - Commodity Market: Gold: COMEX gold non - commercial long - to - short ratio decreased, ETF holdings decreased, total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads were at a relatively low level, and the basis was also at a low level. Silver: COMEX silver non - commercial long - to - short ratio increased, ETF holdings increased, total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver increased. Silver futures and spot spreads and basis were within a reasonable range [60][79][83] - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro - to - dollar exchange rate increased, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased [54] Investment Strategies - Precious Metals: For gold, investors are advised to go long on dips, with attention to support and resistance levels. For gold spreads, investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for gold futures spreads and basis. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for most spread arbitrage opportunities [3][68][72] - Others: Investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for "gold - to - silver ratio", "gold - to - oil ratio", and "gold - to - copper ratio" [97][100]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Weekly Report: Still Lack of Drivers [1] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For electrolytic nickel, the strategy is to wait and see, with an expected price range of 116,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Given high pure nickel production, loose supply - demand, and fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within the range [3][89]. - For stainless steel, the strategy is also to wait and see, with an expected price range of 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Despite production recovery, average demand, and existing inventory pressure, strong cost support and the "anti - involution" sentiment suggest that stainless steel prices will fluctuate within the range [4][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 0.89%. Trading volume decreased to 407,500 lots (- 80,800), and open interest increased to 111,400 lots (+ 2,100). LME nickel fell 0.40% weekly, with trading volume rising to 29,200 lots (+ 800) [10]. - The basis was at a premium of 940 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - Last week, prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [18]. - In June, Philippine nickel ore exports increased. In July, China's nickel ore imports reached 5.01 million tons, up 15.2% month - on - month and 43.6% year - on - year [22]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 306,300 tons, and port inventories rose by 440,000 wet tons [24]. 3.2.2 Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 4.5 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron was flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel narrowed [30]. - In July, China's nickel pig iron imports were 836,000 tons, down 19.7% month - on - month but up 1.8% year - on - year. August imports are expected to be flat [33]. - Nickel pig iron producers' losses widened, but the operating rate increased. In August, domestic production and operating rates declined, while those in Indonesia slightly increased. Nickel pig iron inventories slightly decreased [35][39][43]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel - In August, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased. The profitability of electrolytic nickel exports decreased. In July, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel increased [47][51][54]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Stainless Steel - In August, stainless steel production schedules increased, including those for 300 - series stainless steel. In July, exports rose 6.7% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year, while imports fell 33.3% month - on - month and 39.0% year - on - year. August imports and exports are expected to decline [59][63]. 3.3.2 New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, while that of nickel sulfate rose, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used in nickel sulfate production was minimal [68]. - In August, production schedules for ternary precursors and materials increased, while that for nickel sulfate decreased [72][74]. - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month but up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month but up 27.4% year - on - year [80]. 3.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories decreased. Shanghai Free Trade Zone nickel inventories were flat, and the six - region social total inventory decreased by 1,019 tons [81][85]. 3.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally sourced nickel sulfate and nickel matte increased, while that from externally sourced MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - matte integrated production [88]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 2.04%. The basis widened to 915 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 619,000 lots (- 178,900), and open interest was 144,500 lots (+ 10,200) [92]. - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose, providing strong cost support. Losses for 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel widened, while those for 400 - series stainless steel narrowed [95][100]. - Domestic stainless steel social inventories increased. 200 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series and 400 - series inventories increased [113].

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250826: The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in August are expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month [1] Core Viewpoints - The price increase space of alumina is limited due to the rising production cost and the loose supply-demand expectation; it is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August, the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season, and the low domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum; it is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low positions, focusing on the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the pressure level around 21000 - 21500, and for LME aluminum, the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the pressure level around 2700 - 2800 [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August and the tight supply of scrap aluminum; it is recommended that investors short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the pressure level around 20300 - 20500 [2] Data Summary Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures on August 25, 2025, was 20770, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 146160 lots, up 11586; the open interest was 248343 lots, up 11056; the inventory was 56670 tons, down 474 [2] - The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20780, up 70; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 10, down 70; the spread between the nearby and far - month contracts showed different changes [2] Alumina Futures - The closing price of alumina futures on August 25, 2025, was 3184, up 46; the trading volume was 455135 lots, up 182961; the open interest was 193845 lots, up 10870; the inventory was 83132 tons, up 5386 [2] - The basis was 57.72, down 49.15; the spreads between different contract months also had corresponding changes [2] London Aluminum - The closing price of the LME 3 - month aluminum futures (electronic trading) on August 22, 2025, was 9796.5, up 72; the LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was - 78.38, up 2.63; the 3 - 15 month contract spread was - 158.98, up 12.64; the Shanghai - London aluminum price ratio was 7.8680, down 0.07 [2] Industry News - Anhui Wufang Electromechanical Co., Ltd. is investing 2 billion yuan to build an 80,000 - ton aluminum casting new energy green casting project in Bengbu High - tech Zone, with a phased construction plan [2] - Huafeng Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to jointly invest 210 million yuan with an affiliated company to establish Xinjiang Huafeng New Material Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to build a 4 - million - square - meter high - voltage formed foil production line in two phases [2] - India's National Aluminium Company (NALCO) plans to invest 171.63 billion Indian rupees to increase the smelter's annual capacity by 500,000 tons, 120 billion rupees to increase power generation capacity by 1080 MW, and other investment plans to expand alumina and bauxite production [2] - Dumining Group's Inner Mongolia Huodu New Material Co., Ltd. has put its first - phase 300,000 - ton new carbon anode project into production, with subsequent expansion plans [2] Supply and Demand Analysis Bauxite - Some mines in Shanxi and Henan have not resumed production; Guinea has revoked the licenses of 6 bauxite enterprises, and a new company has taken over a mining right; a bauxite project in China is under construction; the domestic bauxite price has changed, and the supply - demand expectation in August is loose [2] Alumina - The operating rate and production of Chinese alumina have decreased; some domestic alumina projects are under construction or planned to be put into production, which may increase the production in August; the import volume may decrease, and the port inventory has decreased [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects have production plans; the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in August is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month - on - month [1]. - The rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite push up production costs. The decline in domestic alumina operating capacity cannot change the loose supply - demand outlook, limiting the upside potential of alumina prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. - With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August, the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market, and the low social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position, focusing on the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500. For LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 [2]. - With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in August and the tight supply of scrap aluminum leading to near - loss in recycled aluminum alloy production, the aluminum alloy price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short term, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the resistance level around 20300 - 20500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures Active Contract**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price was 20770, up 140 from the previous day; the trading volume was 146160 lots, up 11586; the open interest was 248343 lots, up 11056; the inventory was 56670 tons, down 474 [2]. - **Shanghai Aluminum Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20780, up 70; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 10, down 70; the spread between the near - month and the continuous - first contract was 15, down 5 [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: The national average price of alumina was 3241.72 yuan/ton, down 3.15; the average price in Shanxi was 3215 yuan/ton, down 5; in Shandong, it was 3190 yuan/ton, down 15; in Henan, it was 3215 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - **Alumina Futures Price**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price was 3184 yuan/ton, up 46; the trading volume was 455135 lots, up 182961; the open interest was 193845 lots, up 10870; the inventory was 83132 tons, up 5386; the basis was 57.72, down 49.15 [2]. - **LME 3 - Month Aluminum Futures**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 9796.5, up 72 from the previous day; the spread between the 0 - 3 - month contract was - 78.38, up 2.63; the spread between the 3 - 15 - month contract was - 158.98, up 12.64 [2]. Industry News - Anhui Wufang Electromechanical Co., Ltd. is investing 2 billion yuan in a project to produce 80,000 tons of aluminum castings per year in Bengbu High - tech Zone. The first - phase production capacity of 20,000 tons has been achieved, and the annual output value will reach 800 million yuan after full - scale production [2]. - Huafeng Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to jointly invest 20 million yuan with an affiliated company to establish Xinjiang Huafeng New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to build a production line with an annual output of 4 million square meters of high - voltage formed foil [2]. - India's National Aluminium Company (NALCO) plans to invest 171.63 billion Indian rupees to increase the smelter's annual capacity by 500,000 tons, 120 billion Indian rupees to increase power generation capacity by 1080 MW, and 56.77 billion Indian rupees to build a 1 - million - ton - per - year alumina refinery [2]. - The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huodu New Materials Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 300,000 tons of new pre - baked anodes was put into production on August 19, 2025. The second - phase project of 300,000 tons is expected to be put into production on October 19, and the third - phase project of 800,000 tons has started design [2]. Industry Supply and Demand - The supply - demand outlook for domestic bauxite in August is expected to be loose, with the production (import) volume likely to increase month - on - month. The port departure (arrival/inventory) volume of global (Chinese) port bauxite has decreased (decreased/increased) compared with last week [2]. - China's alumina production rate (production volume) has decreased compared with last week, leading to a decrease in the alumina inventory of Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants (SHFE) [2]. - Some projects are expected to increase China's alumina production in August, and the excess of China's alumina operating capacity compared with electrolytic aluminum in July has widened [2]. - Overseas alumina production in August is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports (exports) and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [2].

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250826: Fluctuations Amplified Again, Protect Positions [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term supply and demand are both strong, the fundamentals change little in the short term, and it is necessary to guard against the recurrence of "contrarian" sentiment. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, buy on dips if there is an oversell, and appropriately buy options for protection [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared to the previous trading day, with increases of 400 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 420 yuan/ton, and 420 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on August 25, 2025, was 626,916 lots, a decrease of 305,759 lots compared to the previous trading day [3] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of active contracts on August 25, 2025, was 368,667 lots, an increase of 6,413 lots compared to the previous trading day [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on August 25, 2025, was 25,630 tons, an increase of 640 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 0 yuan/ton; the spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 540 yuan/ton; the spread between consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton [3] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton; the average price of 99.2% industrial - grade domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 80,200 yuan/ton [3] Company News - **Zhongkuang Resources**: In the first half of 2025, the company's self - supplied raw materials achieved a lithium salt output of 17,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.37%. It also directly sold 34,800 tons of self - produced spodumene powder ore and adjusted the raw material supply structure to reduce lithium salt production costs [3] - **Global Lithium Resources**: The Manna lithium mine project in Australia has obtained a 21 - year mining lease. The final feasibility study (DFS) is expected to be optimized by the end of 2025 [3] - **Pilbara Minerals**: In the fiscal year 2025, the company's spodumene concentrate output reached 754,600 tons, a 4% increase compared to the fiscal year 2024 [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, but the production of mica - based lithium carbonate decreased, and the production of spodumene - based lithium carbonate increased. In August, the planned production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the scheduled production increased [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C product shipments were average. In August, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 25,630 tons, an increase of 640 tons. Social inventory decreased, with smelters and others reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [3] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to operate in the short - term range. If there is an oversell, buy on dips and appropriately buy options for protection [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The judgment on the fundamentals of methanol remains weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, MA01 closed at 2424 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.79% from August 22; MA05 closed at 2402 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.76%; MA09 closed at 2308 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In different regions on August 25, 2025, prices in most regions increased slightly compared to August 22. For example, the price in Shandong was 2310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.43%, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 2082.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.24%. However, the prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 126.50 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025, down 16.50 yuan from August 22 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - **Coal Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased compared to August 22. For example, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 1.96% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 373.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 422.00 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025 [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 5 yuan to 107 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China MTO increased by 10.50 yuan to - 418.07 yuan/ton. However, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan to 240.07 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 50 yuan to 19.12 yuan/ton [1] 4. Market Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2406 yuan/ton and closing at 2424 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,712 lots, and the open interest was 675,269 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving at port in the far - month was 258 - 268 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle - East regions arriving at port in the far - month was + 0 - 0.7%. Some factories in other Middle - East regions were still selling far - month loading port cargoes [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous decline of the urea futures price is mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. The agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains at a high level, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and an upstream inventory of about 930,000 tons. - Although the current export policy is unclear, under the situation of sufficient domestic supply and low prices, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply. However, it is necessary to prevent the urea price from rising too rapidly in the short term, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. - It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the price decline. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 25, UR01 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% from August 22; UR05 closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.39%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. The prices in Shandong and Shanxi also showed different changes, with Shandong down 40 yuan (- 2.30%) and 20 yuan (- 1.23%) respectively [1]. Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in different regions generally declined on August 25 compared with August 22. For example, in Henan, the price dropped 40 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 2.29%); in Hebei, it dropped 40 yuan to 1730 yuan/ton (- 2.26%); in Jiangsu, it dropped 30 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 1.72%), while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 89 yuan/ton on August 25, down 47 yuan from August 22. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S), melamine in different regions also remained stable [1]. Trading Information of the Main Contract - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1746 yuan/ton. The position volume was 222,940 lots [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a potential rate cut in September due to weak employment supply - demand, combined with Trump's pressure on the Fed and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - **Precious Metals in Shanghai**: For Shanghai gold, on August 25, 2025, the closing price was 775.34 yuan/gram, with a change of 3.71 compared to relevant dates. The trading volume was 31,936.00, and the holding volume was 195,962.00. For Shanghai silver, the closing price was 181.00 yuan/kg, the trading volume was 333,308.00, and the holding volume was 3,296,160.00 [1]. - **COMEX Futures**: For COMEX gold futures, the closing price was 3,417.20, the trading volume was 94,317.00, and the holding volume was 327,912.00. For COMEX silver futures, the closing price was 38.55, the trading volume was 41,605.00, and the holding volume was 44,783.00 [1]. - **International Markets**: London gold spot price was 3,335.50 dollars/ounce, and SPDR gold ETF holding volume was 1.72. London silver spot price was 38.01 dollars/ounce. The price ratios of gold to silver in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) are also presented [1]. Important News - **Geopolitical News**: The meeting between US and South Korean leaders ended without results. Trump said the July trade - agreement terms remain unchanged and hopes to meet Kim Jong - un this year. Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office and the Trump administration may sanction EU officials over the digital services law [1]. - **Macroeconomic News**: US inflation rates (PPI and core CPI) rose in July due to import tariffs. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible policy adjustment, increasing the expectation of a September rate cut. The European Central Bank may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possibility in October [1]. Trading Strategies - It is recommended to buy precious metals on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 760 - 770 and the resistance level is around 800 - 810. For London silver, the support level is around 34 - 36 and the resistance level is around 37 - 40. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased, there is an expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper has started to decline, which may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their long positions from the previous day cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to factors such as the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, continuous tight supply of global copper concentrates, and the expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, investors are advised to pay attention to the short - term arbitrage opportunity of going long on the Shanghai copper basis at low prices [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average. Considering factors such as Trump's tariff policy and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see regarding the arbitrage opportunity of the LME copper (3 - 15) contract spread [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - environment - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the change in the risk balance may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September. However, attention should be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream - In August, the domestic production (import) volume of copper concentrates increased (increased) month - on - month. The export restriction of high - quality scrap copper in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper by traders, who instead supply through transit countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window. As a result, the domestic production (import) volume of scrap copper in August may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight [2][25]. - The No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project (Phase II: 250,000 - ton copper rod project; Phase III: 200,000 - ton cathode copper and copper alloy project) was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (decreased) month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate production decreased compared to the previous week. The capacity for crude smelting maintenance in domestic smelters in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase (increase) in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper in August [2][28]. - The 600,000 - ton cathode copper production capacity of Jianfa Shenghai may be put into operation in May 2026. The second - phase project of Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March and will achieve a capacity of 250,000 tons after completion. These factors may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the domestic production volume of electrolytic copper in August. The delay in ship bookings due to African agricultural exports until late August has led to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper in Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, which may result in a month - on - month decrease in the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper in August [2][34]. Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper wire and cable decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (increased) compared to the previous week. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of domestic copper enameled wire decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic copper strips decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises decreased (remained flat) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper tubes decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises increased (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [3][35][49]. - In August, the capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable (due to weak terminal orders in construction and relatively stable orders in the power grid and new energy sectors) and copper enameled wire (due to weakening terminal demand in household appliances and significant order decline) may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips (although demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics is good, but demand in household appliances and photovoltaics is weak, resulting in a significant decline， in new orders for some enterprises) and copper foils (due to the significant increase in demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foils in the AI field, orders for many copper foil enterprises are saturated) may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes (as the estimated total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August is lower than that of last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US) may decrease month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of brass rods (due to the potential growth in demand from new energy and power sectors, which may improve large - enterprise orders, but small and medium - sized enterprises still face high raw material costs, tight funds, and insufficient orders) may increase month - on - month [55][63][69]. Inventory - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to the previous week. The opening of the import window may increase the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper, leading to a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared to the previous week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [16][17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared to the previous week [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased compared to the previous week [19]. Futures Spread and Structure - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average [8]. - The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, as well as between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, are negative and basically within a reasonable range. The spreads between different - maturity contracts of COMEX copper are also negative and basically within a reasonable range [10][12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - term contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [13]. Position - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. The non - commercial long (short) positions decreased (increased), and the commercial long (short) positions increased (increased) [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's pressure or potential dismissal of Fed officials strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning into the peak season may lead to a relatively strong and volatile aluminum price [1]. - For alumina, the rise in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the supply - demand expectation remains loose, limiting the upside space for alumina prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season in China, along with low social inventories, may cause the Shanghai aluminum price to be cautiously strong. For aluminum alloy, the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and tight scrap aluminum supply may lead to a cautiously strong aluminum alloy price [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - demand situation**: The revocation of bauxite mining licenses in Guinea and the start of domestic bauxite recycling projects may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in August, with a loose supply - demand expectation. New alumina production capacity projects in China may increase domestic alumina production in August, and the matching surplus of alumina over electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. The trial production of the Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum and the closure of the import window may reduce imports and increase exports of alumina in August, leading to a decrease in port inventories [2]. - **Price analysis**: The increase in bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the loose supply - demand expectation limits the upside space for alumina prices. The alumina basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the contango structure of the futures contracts is due to the increase in production costs and the expectation of loose supply [2][11][25]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - demand situation**: The restart of electrolytic aluminum projects in China may increase domestic production in August. The recovery of production capacity in overseas electrolytic aluminum plants may increase imports in August. The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased but remains at a low level [3][47]. - **Price analysis**: The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season in China may cause the Shanghai aluminum price to be cautiously strong. The Shanghai aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the LME aluminum spreads show different positive and negative situations, all within reasonable ranges [3][40][43]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - demand situation**: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China is decreasing. However, the positive spread between refined and scrap aluminum in China may decrease domestic scrap aluminum production and increase imports in August. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in August, and the import and export of unforged aluminum alloys may decrease [5][72][85]. - **Price analysis**: The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and tight scrap aluminum supply may lead to a cautiously strong aluminum alloy price. The basis and spreads of cast aluminum alloy are positive and within reasonable ranges, and the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [5][68][71]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [5][68][71]. Downstream Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased compared with last week, mainly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season [97][99]. - Among them, the capacity utilization rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased, while the capacity utilization rate of aluminum profiles has remained flat [101][103].