Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper product enterprises in August. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the transition from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the initial decline in the global electrolytic copper inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the active contract on dips and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The closing price on August 22, 2025, was 78,690, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 37,910 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,132 lots. The inventory was 24,148 tons, down 1,009 tons [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: It was 78,830 on August 22, 2025, up 30 from the previous day [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis**: The basis was 260 on August 22, 2025, up 120 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: The closing price on August 21, 2025, was 9,724.5, up 4 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 155,975 tons, down 375 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract on August 22, 2025, was 4.433, up 0.03 from the previous day. The total inventory was 271,482 tons [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Supply - demand**: In June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 86,000 tons. From January to June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with 395,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. The global refined copper production from January to June 2025 was 1.4212 billion tons, and the consumption was 1.396 billion tons [2]. - **Domestic Downstream Industry**: The processing fee of fine copper rods for East China power and enameled wires increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of different copper product industries in China showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the capacity utilization rate of fine copper rods increased, while that of copper wire and cable decreased [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategy Investors are suggested to try to go long on the active contract on dips. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

| | | 尿素早评20250825: 出口预期影响市场 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | 变化值 変化值 | 单位 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1739.00 1740.00 | 1764.00 1760.00 | -25.00 -20.00 | -1.42% -1.14% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1782.00 | 1797.00 | -15.00 | -0.83% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1715.00 | 1737.00 | -22.00 | -1.27% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1630.00 | 1630.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 1760.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | 河北 | ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250825：区间偏强 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/25 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 16,650.00 -0.15% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,780.00 0.21% | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -130.00 -60.00 | | | | | -25.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -33.79 4.59 | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -66.30 -3.20 | | | | | 价差 元/吨 - - 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -10.00 5.00 铅 | | | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 10.00 | | | | | 手 22,945.00 -20.45% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | | | 成交持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon price is expected to remain in high-level consolidation due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market, although bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently. For polysilicon, the price is also expected to maintain high-level consolidation with large fluctuations in the futures market, and continuous attention should be paid to macro sentiment evolution and warrant registration [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase steadily, while the demand from downstream industries is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.27% to 8,745 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: With the continuous increase in silicon prices, some previously shut-down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and prices may come under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N-type dense material rose 4.35% to 48 yuan/kg; N-type re-feeding material rose 4.26% to 49 yuan/kg; N-type mixed material rose 4.44% to 47 yuan/kg; N-type granular silicon rose 3.37% to 46 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.24% to 51,045 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some silicon material plants may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase month-on-month [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum, the price of some battery cells has loosened due to reduced orders and accumulated inventory, and the component price has continued to weaken due to low acceptance of high prices by the end market and the completion of overseas component export tax rebate stockpiling [1]. Market News - T1 Energy, a US solar manufacturer, has signed a cooperation agreement with Corning, a new silicon material manufacturer and materials giant, to purchase polysilicon and silicon wafers made in the US [1]. - Indian Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said that India's domestic solar component manufacturing capacity has exceeded 100GW, compared with only 2.3GW in 2014. All capacities are included in the "Model and Manufacturer Approval List" [1]. - Huadian Group's 2025 - 2026 photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for bid sections one and two has opened bids. Bid section one has a scale of 18GW, and bid section two has a scale of 2GW. There are 26 enterprises bidding for bid section two, with a bid price range of 0.7076 - 0.8431 yuan/watt and an average price of 0.7461 yuan/watt [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Before the official Russia-Ukraine talks, crude oil may continue the low-volatility oscillating market. Although the market will still engage in a game around the peace talks, considering the strong willingness of both sides to negotiate, the probability of unexpected events has decreased [4][69]. - In addition to the talks, short-term attention should be paid to Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting [4][69]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Volatility Decline and Oscillation**: The two rounds of talks between the US and Russia and the US and Ukraine were relatively smooth, leading to a decline in oil price volatility and oscillation. As of August 21, the closing price of the active contract of WTI crude oil futures was $63.48 per barrel, Brent crude oil was $67.67 per barrel, and the active contract of SC crude oil futures closed at 490.9 yuan per barrel [9]. - **Weakening of Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of Brent and WTI weakened [10]. - **Decrease in Net Long Positions of Funds**: As of the week ending August 12, the net long positions of WTI funds were 48,865 lots, a decrease of 32,472 lots compared to the previous period; Brent funds' net long positions were 199,820 lots, a decrease of 30,594 lots compared to the previous period. In the refined oil market, gasoline had a net long position of - 2,860 lots, diesel had a net long position of + 2,111 lots, and heating oil had a net long position of + 611 lots [14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC +**: At the meeting on August 3, OPEC + agreed to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cut exit process may be suspended or reversed. OPEC's production has gradually increased since May, but the increase is currently limited. In July, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 262,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 705,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [19]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the production increase capacity is limited due to the limited change in the number of rigs and the low willingness of producers to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.327 million barrels per day [27]. - **Risk**: Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine talks. The two rounds of talks between the US and Russia and the US and Ukraine were smooth, resulting in a decline in crude oil option volatility. Ukraine's security demands have been partially met, while Russia's territorial demands may be difficult to satisfy, which may be the point of contention in subsequent talks [28]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: US distillate oil demand has rebounded, while gasoline demand is relatively poor. As of the week ending August 15, US gasoline demand was 8.842 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 158,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 351,000 barrels per day; distillate oil demand was 3.967 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 266,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 391,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 1.899 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 144,000 barrels per day. The total demand for US petroleum products was 21.506 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 149,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.084 million barrels per day. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have rebounded slightly, but the gasoline crack spread is still at a five - year low, corresponding to the weak gasoline consumption compared to previous years. The diesel crack spread is at a neutral level in the past five years. The downstream refinery operations have remained at a high level. As of the week ending August 15, the US refinery capacity utilization rate was 96.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points; the crude oil processing volume was 17.208 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 519,000 barrels per day [30][39][43]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy does not directly affect crude oil. The key is whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and then boost crude oil demand. In July, the crude oil processing volume continued to increase, reaching 63.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 815,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.998 million tons, mainly due to the high - level operation of major refineries. The operation rate of local refineries has increased but remains at a low level, affected by the adjustment of refined oil tax policies and the transformation of domestic energy demand [47]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) decreased slightly. As of the week ending August 15, US crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 420.684 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 403.425 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The weekly crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23.47 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 420,000 barrels. In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventories continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, and the continuous accumulation of distillate oil inventories alleviated the previous tight inventory situation. As of the week ending August 15, US gasoline inventories were 223.57 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 29.73 million barrels; distillate oil inventories were 116.028 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.343 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 67.83 million barrels; jet fuel inventories were 43.296 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 448,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 35.33 million barrels [55][60]. - **OECD**: In July, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased. The monthly global crude oil supply was 105.52 million barrels per day, and the demand was 104.34 million barrels per day, with a supply - demand difference of 1.18 million barrels per day (the previous value was 470,000 barrels per day). OECD inventories increased slightly, reaching 2.804 billion barrels at the end of July, a month - on - month increase of 80 million barrels [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main nickel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel ore price remained flat, the domestic nickel iron production was expected to decline in August while Indonesia's increased, and the domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase. The demand for ternary materials, stainless steel, alloys, and electroplating was stable. The overall nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the repeated expectations of Fed rate - cuts, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main stainless - steel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The stainless - steel production was expected to increase in August, but the terminal demand was weak. The high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Considering the large influence of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals and there was cost support. Stainless - steel prices were expected to fluctuate with macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 119,700 yuan/ton, 119,830 yuan/ton, 120,030 yuan/ton, and 120,290 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 230 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel beans was 122,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and the inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged [2] Stainless Steel Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi), 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), and other stainless - steel products remained mostly unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2] Market News and Analysis - **Macroeconomic News**: The US August S&P Global Composite PMI reached a new 8 - month high, reducing the bets on two Fed rate - cuts this year. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, and the number of continued claims increased by 30,000 to 1,972,000 [2]. - **Nickel Market Analysis**: The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory accumulation at ports. The demand side had increased production of ternary materials and stainless - steel plants, and stable demand for alloys and electroplating [2]. - **Stainless Steel Market Analysis**: The supply side had an expected increase in stainless - steel production in August, while the demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side had a rising high - nickel pig iron price and a stable high - carbon ferrochrome price [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main contract of Shanghai nickel trended downward, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory at ports. Nickel iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase in August, and export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plants' production schedules rose, and alloy and electroplating demands were stable. Inventory increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventory, while remaining flat in the bonded area. With a loose fundamental situation for pure nickel and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations being inconsistent, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, and it was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main contract of stainless steel trended downward, with decreased trading volume and increased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium widened. Inventory at the SHFE decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (a decrease of 11,600 tons). In terms of supply, stainless - steel production schedules increased in August. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, the price of high - nickel pig iron rose, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained stable. Currently, macro - sentiment had a significant impact. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to the fundamentals, and there was cost support. Therefore, prices were expected to fluctuate following macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary of Related Data Nickel Futures - On August 21, the closing price of the near - month contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529). The LME 3 - month nickel official price decreased by 0.45%. The basis (spot - to - futures) was 1,270 yuan, an increase of 2150 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The prices of nickel ore, including Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades, remained stable. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless - Steel Futures - On August 21, the closing price of the near - month contract of Shanghai stainless steel was 12,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046). The basis (spot - to - futures) was 880 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The prices of 304 - series and 316 - series stainless - steel products in the spot market were mostly stable, with some minor changes in inventory. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [2]. Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai nickel increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventory, while remaining flat in the bonded area. The inventory of stainless steel at the SHFE decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased last week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound of consumer - side inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price dips to initiate long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 21, 2025, the futures closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 2.44 yuan and a weekly decrease of 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 14,440. The spot closing price was 771.66 yuan/gram, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Gold T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.78, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.46 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan and a weekly decrease of 42 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 11,580. The spot closing price was 9144 yuan/kg, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Silver T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 16, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The futures closing price was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily decrease of 8.70 dollars and a weekly decrease of 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 11,003 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 8,184. The London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare gold ETFs also changed [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The futures closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.20 dollars and a weekly decrease of 0.45 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 6,909 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 18,281 [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) all changed. For example, the ratio of Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver was 84.60, with a daily increase of 0.31 and a weekly decrease of 0.85 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term treasury bonds in the third quarter to replenish the cash account. The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing the US July PPI and core CPI annual rates to rise. The Fed's expected number of rate cuts has been reduced to September/October [1]. - **US Economic Data**: The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, unexpectedly reaching a three - year high. The inflation pressure increased, and the US labor market cooling was obvious. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [1]. - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank temporarily suspended rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France August manufacturing PMIs were all higher than expected and the previous value, so the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction after continuing to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - side inflation reducing the Fed's expected rate - cut times and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to initiate long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].

| 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 83000.00 | 81040.00 | 73480.00 | 1,960.00 | w | | 收盘价 连一合约 | 82960.00 | 81000.00 | 85140.00 | 1,960.00 | ( 1 | | 连二合约 收盘价 连三合约 收盘价 | 82180.00 82180.00 | 80880.00 80880.00 | 85300.00 85300.00 | 1,300.00 1,300.00 | | | 收盘价 | 82760.00 | 80980.00 | 85300.00 | 1,780.00 | ( | | 碳酸锂期货 成交量(手) | 777827.00 | 838879.00 | 1060127.00 | -61,052.00 | | | 活跃合约 | | | | | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) | 390069.00 | 395102 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled, and global electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards. However, due to fiscal easing in many countries around the world leading to inflation expectations, Shanghai copper prices may remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 78,540, a decrease of 100 from the previous day; the trading volume was 43,058 lots, a decrease of 13,080 lots; the open interest was 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots; and the inventory was 25,157 tons, a decrease of 66 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,800, an increase of 30 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 260, an increase of 130; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, unchanged; the spot premium/discount in North China was -50, an increase of 10; and the spot premium/discount in East China was 50, a decrease of 15 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 30, an increase of 20; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20, unchanged; the spread between the second continuous and the first continuous contract was 10, an increase of 10 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,724.5, an increase of 4 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,350 tons; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was - 81.01, an increase of 9.74; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was - 171.62, a decrease of 5.14; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0765, a decrease of 0.01 [2] - The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract was 4.448, an increase of 0.02 from the previous day; the total inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,753 tons [2] Industry News - Indonesian copper concentrate exports have reached 65% of the approved quota as of mid - August, and are expected to account for 90% of the quota this year [2] - Due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin from August 20 to September 3, freight vehicle controls have tightened market logistics, and the upcoming centralized maintenance period of upstream smelters has led to a tight supply of electrolytic copper spot in North China [2] - Codelco will lower its 2025 copper production guidance target. Due to the accident at the El Teniente copper mine, the refined copper production of this division is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons, and the copper sales profit will decline by $233 million. The economic loss caused by the production cut is $340 million [2] - Jianfa Shenghai plans to invest 12.15 billion yuan (Jianfa holds 51%), and the project is expected to be put into operation in May 2026, with an annual production of 600,000 tons of cathode copper and other products [2] - First Quantum has launched a $1.25 - billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia [2] Industry Operation - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) production capacity has increased (decreased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased (increased) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) [3] - The order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wire has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper plate and strip has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper plate and strip enterprises have decreased (remained flat) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] Investment Strategy - Affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline (increase, decrease, decrease) month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper plate and strip, copper foil, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper traders have no pressure to sell and are reluctant to cut prices significantly, while downstream processing enterprises have weak demand and weak spot purchases [3]