Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [3] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The downstream demand for粕类is good, and the soybean meal market maintains a volatile trend. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Brazilian premium is still strong, providing cost - side support. Attention should be paid to the situation of US soybeans and macro - policies [1][2] - For the corn market, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and demand is relatively stable. The market is focusing on the dynamics of new grain listings [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **粕类Market** - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2627 yuan/ton, a change of + 23 yuan/ton (+ 0.88%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: ProFarmer's on - the - spot inspection showed that the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota was the highest since 2020, and the USDA estimated that the state's soybean yield per acre in 2025 would be higher than last year [1] - **Market Analysis** - The domestic soybean supply is still relatively loose, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Sino - US trade policy still has uncertainties. The Brazilian premium is strong, providing cost - side support [2] **Corn Market** - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, a change of - 74 yuan/ton (- 2.89%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: ProFarmer's preliminary inspection showed that the corn yield prospects in Ohio and South Dakota were higher than last year and the three - year average. As of August 17, the corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the highest since 2016 [3] - **Market Analysis** - On the supply side in China, the channel inventories in Northeast and North China are relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is consolidating, and inventories continue to decline. Feed enterprises' corn positions have decreased, and they mainly make sporadic replenishments. The use of new wheat is stable. Overall, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and the market is concerned about new grain listings [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [11] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [11] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [11] Core Views - The spread between aluminum alloy and primary aluminum has narrowed [1] - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the spot market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream buyers are replenishing stocks at low prices. Although consumption is still in the seasonal off - peak, there are signs of improvement, and the long - term supply is restricted [7] - For alumina, the rapid increase in warehouse receipt inventory reduces the risk of a short squeeze, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The price of bauxite is difficult to rise, and the supply is increasing. The situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue [8][9] - In the aluminum alloy market, the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can still be concerned [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,480 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Futures - On August 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,540 yuan/ton, closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,540 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,430 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,168 lots, and the open interest was 228,028 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, up 1.9 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 62,938 tons, down 2,529 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On August 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 372 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On August 20, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,130 yuan/ton, closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.03%. The highest price was 3,159 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,081 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 441,227 lots, and the open interest was 176,803 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 20, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,600 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [6] Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [11] - Arbitrage: Long Shanghai aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - **Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure**: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - **Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit**: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - **Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory**: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - **Traditional Downstream Profits**: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - South Korean petrochemical companies may cut 2.7 - 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity, which has significantly boosted the downstream prices of domestic olefin derivatives. South Korean cracked pure benzene accounts for 3.5% of the total overseas pure benzene capacity, and the impact is limited. South Korean styrene accounts for 16% of overseas styrene capacity, which may support overseas styrene prices. However, both products still face significant inventory pressure, and the potential impact on EB supply is greater than that on BZ in terms of price spreads. [3] - The high - level pure benzene port inventory has slightly declined, and the pure benzene basis has recently shown signs of stabilization and a slight increase. There are scheduled maintenance works for South Korean aromatics in August - September, and the import pressure has not further increased. The overall downstream operating rate remains relatively high, and the demand is at a seasonal peak, driving the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. For styrene, the port inventory has accumulated again, and the downstream still faces inventory pressure. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - No specific data analysis provided, only mentions figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [9][13][19] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 23), and the styrene main contract basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 64 yuan/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 331 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress. [1] - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 173 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 158 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is 54.6 US dollars/ton (- 15.1 US dollars/ton). [1] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 144,000 tons (- 2000 tons), and the operating rate of its downstream products such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+ 5.31%), phenol is 77.00% (+ 0.00%), aniline is 71.57% (- 1.89%), and adipic acid is 61.70% (+ 7.30%). [1] - Styrene East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons), East China commercial inventory is 76,500 tons (+ 7000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+ 0.5%). [1] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 98 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 102 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+ 20 yuan/ton). [2] - EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+ 14.41%), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+ 1.70%), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+ 0.00%). [2] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1820 yuan/ton (- 25), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1336 yuan/ton (+ 50). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee has rebounded, but the shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is not expected to perform well, but with relatively stable grid orders, the overall price is expected to fluctuate. The development of the Putin-Biden meeting and the performance of the domestic equity market may impact copper prices. The report suggests a neutral stance on copper, puts arbitrage on hold, and provides option strategies [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, a -0.32% decline from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 250 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average premium of 190 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was in the range of 78,670 - 78,870 yuan/ton. The purchase and sales sentiment in Shanghai increased. It is expected that domestic supplies will continue to be supplemented, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper will face continued pressure [2]. 3.3 Important Information Summary 3.3.1 Macroeconomic - The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting showed that tariffs pose upward pressure on commodity price inflation, but the increase in the cost of imported goods including tariffs will be less than previously predicted and the time of increase will be postponed. The labor market is expected to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above the estimated natural unemployment rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [3]. 3.3.2 Mine End - Tudor Gold has submitted an underground exploration permit application for the Treaty Creek gold-copper mine project. First Quantum Minerals has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, which is expected to nearly double the ore processing capacity, increase smelter capacity by about 25%, and increase the average annual copper production to 250,000 tons by 2044 [4]. 3.3.3 Smelting and Import - The Hong Kong delivery warehouse of the London Metal Exchange was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase. Some smelters have reduced production due to shortages of copper concentrate and scrap. In August, the number of smelters reducing production has increased compared to July [5]. 3.3.4 Consumption - The monthly prosperity index of China's copper industry in July was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [6]. 3.3.5 Inventory - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 25,223 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Views - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-21 策略 谨慎偏空 供应压力偏大，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13775元/吨，较前交易日变动-125.00元/吨，幅度-0.90%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-85，较前交易日变动+185；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.89元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+115，较前交易日变动+195；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH09-225，较前交易日变动+235。 据农业农村部监测，8月20日"农产品批发价格200指数"为115.42，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为115.80，比昨天上升0.10个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.04元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；牛肉64.87 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉60.03元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；鸡蛋7.62元/公斤，比昨天下降1.4%；白条鸡17.59 元/公斤，比昨天上升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Core View - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Although a lithium salt plant announced its复产, it was within the plan and had limited short - term impact on market supply. The demand side still has certain rigid procurement support. When the futures price drops and the futures discount is large, one can consider buying for hedging [1][3] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 85,660 yuan/ton and closed at 80,980 yuan/ton, a - 8.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day's 414,097 lots. The current basis was 4,720 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,4045 lots, a change of 430 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,400 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,800 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton, a - 80 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1] - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 13,800 tons, a 21.8% month - on - month and 42.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 131,600 tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [2] - In July 2025, China's spodumene imports were 750,700 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 4,246,000 tons [2] Strategy - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Jiangte Motor announced that its subsidiary Yinli will resume production next week, which is a normal maintenance resumption with expected low output in the near future. Recently, the impact of mine disturbances and capital sentiment on lithium carbonate is significant, with high market volatility and active speculative funds. When the futures discount is large after the price drop, one can consider buying for hedging [3] Risks - Consumption end fails to meet expectations; Mine end disturbances exceed expectations; Macroeconomic sentiment and open - interest changes have an impact [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of new and old soybeans is stable, while the peanut market lacks confidence. The soybeans futures showed a weak oscillation, and the low - protein auction soybeans prices are under pressure. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment, with the demand side remaining sluggish and traders lacking confidence [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4036.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 224, up 10 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - In the northeast market, soybean prices in some producing areas dropped slightly due to the decline in low - protein prices and the impact of state - reserve auctions. In the sales areas, the trading volume was relatively low due to high temperatures and poor demand. Specific prices in different regions of Heilongjiang showed some declines or remained stable [1] - The bean - one futures showed a weak oscillation. The auctions of central and local soybeans continued, and the lower reserve price increased the transaction rate, but the Heilongjiang provincial - reserve soybean auction failed. The soybeans in the northeast and inland areas are in the late growth stage with good growth and weather conditions. High - protein soybean prices were stable, while low - protein soybean prices were under pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7782.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous day. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 318.00, up 46.00 (+16.91%) from the previous day [3] - The peanut market is in the transition period between new and old peanuts. The average price of old peanuts is stable, and they are being cleared from inventory. New peanuts' prices are rising steadily, and the number of new - peanut - listing areas and the supply are increasing. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment. The overall trading atmosphere of domestic peanut spots is average, and the demand is sluggish [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]