Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [7] Core Views - Apple: The overall apple market remains sluggish, but the remaining inventory is at a historical low, which provides some support for prices. The market will focus on the game between merchants' price - pressing and fruit farmers' acceptance, as well as the price performance of early - maturing apples in the west after their concentrated listing [2][3]. - Red dates: The futures price of red dates rose significantly yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales area is less, and the downstream replenishment has increased, supporting the price of high - quality goods. The new - season red date output is estimated to decline, but due to many influencing factors, continuous attention is needed [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8052 yuan/ton, a change of +47 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.59% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.15 yuan/jin from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, a change of +0.00 yuan/jin from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - Inventory: The remaining inventory in the warehouse is small, and the de - stocking progress has slowed down. The inventory of stored Fuji in the production and sales areas last week was still slow to move [2]. - New - season early - maturing apples: Paper - bag Qinyang has been gradually listed for trading. Currently, the volume of red fruits is limited, and the price is firm [2]. - Sales area: The sales of apples in the wholesale market in the sales area are still slow, and seasonal fruits continue to divert apple sales, with no obvious improvement in terminal demand [2]. Strategy - The apple market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term due to low remaining inventory and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year. Attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10695 yuan/ton, a change of +250 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +2.39% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, a change of +0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - New - season red dates: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The fruit - setting of the first - crop flowers in some orchards is average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers is good. The new - season output is estimated to be 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease of 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024 [6]. - Sales area: The total inventory in the sales area is at a high level in recent years. It is currently the traditional off - season, with an increasing supply of seasonal fruits and weakening tonic demand. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has increased recently, and the spot market transactions are good [6]. Strategy - Due to the high sensitivity of funds to the growth of new - season red dates and the significant impact of production - area news on the futures market, the market may fluctuate strongly in the future. Close attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

Report Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][9] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a loose supply. In China, the tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drives up the price, but the strong expectation of a good harvest and weak terminal demand limit the upside. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the price [3] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, which will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upside. The new sugar listing in the new season will increase the downward pressure [5][6] - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry lacks positive drivers [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,473 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 17, 2025, the US cumulative net signed export of 2024/25 cotton was 2.775 million tons, reaching 108% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.539 million tons, with a shipment rate of 91.51% [2] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.53%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [5] - Brazil exported 3,175,734.56 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the daily average in July last year. As of July 20, the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi was about 910,000 tons, 190,000 tons more than last year [5] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (-2.90%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will have a loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the expected tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drive up the price, but the good harvest expectation and weak terminal demand limit the upside [3] Sugar - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term, but the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and India's policies bring uncertainties. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports limits the upside [5][6] Pulp - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year as the port de - stocking is slow and domestic production capacity is increasing. The demand improvement is limited due to the weak overseas consumption and the traditional off - season in China [8] Strategies Cotton - The long - term industry does not have a continuous upward driver, and the upside of the far - month 01 contract is limited [4] Sugar - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar will fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6] Pulp - The short - term price increase is driven by macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are not improved. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [2][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the supply outlook of international major producers, trade policy uncertainty, China's demand - structure adjustment, and high domestic inventory pressure. Future attention should be paid to the weather in major producing areas, trade - negotiation policies, and domestic inventory digestion [1] - The peanut market has limited and quality - differentiated sources of goods, with strong selling pressure from holders but weak downstream purchasing. The new - season planting area has increased, and future focus is on the impact of rainfall on new - season yields and demand changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 71.00 yuan/ton (- 1.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible - bean spot basis was A09 + 147, a change of + 71 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices remained stable [1] Strategy - Neutral [2] Risk - None [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8142.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 4.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.05%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8620.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 58.00, a change of - 4.00 (- 6.45%) from the previous day. Domestic peanut spot prices were slightly weaker, and most产区 inventories were low [2] Strategy - Neutral [4] Risk - Weak demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production, declining export data, and growing pressure on inventory accumulation, coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas and the gradual realization of high - yield expectations, the supply pressure is significant, causing the oils to face downward pressure and oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8946.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8120.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan or - 0.29%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9406.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 51.00 yuan or - 0.54% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8920.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan or - 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 26.00, a change of - 50.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 110.00, a change of - 6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9500.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan or - 0.63%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 94.00, a change of - 9.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Palm oil: From July 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 was 684308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 9.55 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [2] - Soybean oil: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 108.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week [2] - Import prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1183 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 583 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 573 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (August shipment) was 452 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 471 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 224 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (August shipment) was 197 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 262 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector in the early stage was the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants accounted for 16% in pure benzene and 6% in styrene, especially in BZ. However, with the decline in coking coal prices, the atmosphere in the chemical sector weakened, leading to price corrections in BZ and EB. - At the beginning of the week, BZ port inventory continued to consolidate without further accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ was acceptable, but port inventory pressure and the pressure of shipments from South Korea to China still existed. - For styrene, port inventory continued to rise at the beginning of the week, with the inventory accumulation rate unchanged. The EB port basis remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. The domestic EB operation rate was still at a relatively high level. The operation rates of the three major hard plastics increased, the PS inventory pressure continued to ease, while ABS still had inventory pressure. The fundamentals of styrene were weaker than those of pure benzene [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene was - 221 yuan/ton (+71), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene was 12 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the EB port basis remained weak with the inter - period spread continuing to weaken [2][3]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee was 185 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee was 170 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread was 106.0 dollars/ton (-13.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid changed, with caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+165), phenol - acetone at - 667 yuan/ton (+25), and adipic acid at - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit was - 168 yuan/ton (-122 yuan/ton) and was expected to gradually compress. The production profits of downstream hard plastics EPS, PS, and ABS increased, with EPS at 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton), PS at - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton), and ABS at 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton) [2]. 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operation rate information was not clearly summarized in the given text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), the East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [2]. 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02%), and the production profit was 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton). - PS: The operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00%), and the production profit was - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton). - ABS: The operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92%), and the production profit was 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton). The downstream operation was at a seasonal low [2]. 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83%), and the production profit was - 1830 yuan/ton (+165). - Phenol: The operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00%), and the production profit of phenol - acetone was - 667 yuan/ton (+25). - Aniline: The operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77%), and the production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16). - Adipic acid: The operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00%), and the production profit was - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and distant - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high; conduct reverse arbitrage for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread. - Cross - variety: Short the EB - BZ spread when the spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon in the short - term with interval operation; no specific rating for industrial silicon but mentioned reasonable valuation and subsequent wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Inter - period: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Inter - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, on July 28, 2025, the futures price hit the daily limit down. The fundamental situation is average, with some resumption of production on the supply side and a decrease in the start - up of organosilicon on the consumption side due to an accident at a large factory. The price followed the overall commodity sentiment decline. The current valuation is relatively reasonable, and the subsequent disk will oscillate widely [1][2] - For polysilicon, on July 28, 2025, the futures main contract fluctuated widely. It is mainly affected by policy disturbances. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry is still in progress. The short - term anti - involution policy has cooled the sentiment, leading to a short - term callback in the futures disk. The full cost including tax on the disk may be the main support level. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions on dips [4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of - 775 yuan/ton (- 8.00%) compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. The position of the main contract was 279068 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50113 lots, a change of 403 lots compared with the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The prices in most regions decreased, while those in Sichuan and 97 - silicon remained stable. The price of organosilicon DMC remained unchanged, the market supply shrank, and manufacturers' willingness to support prices increased significantly [1] Polysilicon - On July 28, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 48000 yuan/ton and closed at 49405 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 5.84% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136295 lots (155168 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 581460 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon and silicon wafers both increased [4] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers of different specifications had small fluctuations. The prices of battery cells of different types and components of different specifications remained basically stable [4][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are average. The supply side has some resumption of production, and the consumption side has a decrease in the start - up of organosilicon. The price follows the overall commodity sentiment decline. The subsequent disk will oscillate widely [2] Polysilicon - Short - term interval operation. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions on dips. Pay attention to the progress and actual implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The short-term contradiction in the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the stabilization signal of the high-sulfur structure. The crude oil price maintains an oscillating trend, with a strengthening sign at night, but it has limited guidance on the short-term direction of fuel oil. The FU and LU markets oscillate narrowly, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently, with continuous adjustment of the market structure, a significant decline in crack spreads from high levels, relatively abundant supply at the spot end, and high inventory levels. The supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the market is expected to get some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely subsided in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently, with an increase in Brazilian tanker arrivals and the resumption of Kuwaiti exports, but the overall supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.9% at 2,869 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,545 yuan/ton [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, recent shipments from Russia and Iran have increased, demand lacks highlights except for power plant seasonal procurement, and refinery demand shows no sign of large-scale improvement. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian tanker arrivals have increased and Kuwaiti exports have resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited, and there is no obvious contradiction in the Asia-Pacific spot market. The remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in shipping will suppress the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting FU crack spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately liquidated for profit [3] - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually liquidated for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently experiencing a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, the price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 23.42 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16775 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10525 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the day, the Shanghai lead futures showed a weak and volatile trend. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16960 yuan/ton and closed at 16915 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 72526 lots, a change of 25763 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest for the whole trading day was 70546 lots, a change of - 2781 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17085 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16985 yuan/ton and closed at 16945 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On July 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 7.2 million tons, a change of 0.03 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 28, the LME lead inventory was 263650 tons, a change of - 3050 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The copper market is currently in a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, so the price is unlikely to show strong performance. Given the tight supply at the mine end, the possibility of a significant decline in copper prices is also limited. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and the operation is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,180 yuan/ton and closed at 79,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,130 yuan/ton and closed at 79,010 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remains weak. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 78,950 - 79,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 140 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, and an average premium of 95 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan drop from the previous day. The Contango structure has narrowed to C40 - C20 yuan/ton. The market shows three characteristics: increased domestic and imported arrivals, significant regional differentiation, and tight supply of wet - process copper with a narrowing price difference between non - standard and standard products. It is expected that the downward space of the spot premium will narrow [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment company to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury has significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties, but they are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is coming up, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [3]. - **Mine End**: First Quantum Minerals is still in negotiation with the Panama government and pays $15 million per month to maintain the shut - down Cobre copper mine, expected to increase to $17 - 18 million by the end of the year. Teck Resources' board has approved a C$2.1 - 2.4 billion ($1.6 - 1.8 billion) expansion project for the Highland Valley copper mine, which will extend its operation to the mid - 2040s, with an average annual output of 137,000 tons of copper [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: A new wave of senior executive departures at Trafigura Group is pressuring its stock - repurchase commitment. The company has postponed about 30% of the stock repurchases originally planned for this year, and the market is worried about potential delays next year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the refined copper rod industry has dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, lower than expected. The high copper price has suppressed terminal demand, leading to a "raw - material increase, finished - product accumulation" inventory pattern. The operating rate of the copper cable industry has dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, with the largest year - on - year decline of 15.28 percentage points. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts have changed by 3,700 tons to 127,400 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts have changed by 1,699 tons to 17,832 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory is 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week. Last week, LME copper inventory continued to accumulate to 128,475 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons, international copper inventory remained stable at 11,616 tons, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to 248,635 tons [7][8]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and it is recommended to buy hedges on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [9]. - **Options**: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9]. Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium of SMM1 copper is 95 yuan, premium copper is 120 yuan, flat - water copper is 65 yuan, and wet - process copper is 5 yuan on July 29, 2025. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 127,400 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 225,558 tons. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 17,832 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 14.67%. - **Arbitrage**: The spread of CU10 - CU08 is - 40, CU09 - CU08 is 0, CU09/AL09 is 3.83, CU0/ZN09 is 3.49, the import profit is - 342 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) is 8.09 [29][30][31].