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新能源及有色金属日报:铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:08
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力 重要数据 铝现货方面:SMM数据,华东A00铝价21440元/吨,较上一交易日变化80元/吨,华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨, 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨;中原A00铝价21330元/吨,现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-120元/吨; 佛山A00铝价录21340元/吨,较上一交易日变化100元/吨,铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-110元/吨。 铝期货方面:2025-11-25日沪铝主力合约开于21415元/吨,收于21465元/吨,较上一交易日变化85元/吨,最 高价达21525元/吨,最低价达到21380元/吨。全天交易日成交157390手,全天交易日持仓271763手。 库存方面,截止2025-11-25,SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.3万吨,较上一期变化-0.8万吨,仓单库存69283 吨,较上一交易日变化-125吨,LME铝库存543725吨,较上一交易日变化-2225吨。 氧化铝现货价格:2025-11-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨,山东价格录得2770元/吨,河南价格录得 2860 ...
农产品日报:糖价止跌企稳,郑棉延续反弹-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton prices are limited, and a sideways trading pattern is expected. In the long - term, cotton prices are optimistic after the seasonal pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] - The short - term fundamental drivers of Zhengzhou sugar prices are still downward, but the decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend next year may not be optimistic [5] - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8] Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton yesterday, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The November USDA report was bearish for the market. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, driving the Zhengzhou cotton futures price to rebound. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, the expected yield in Xinjiang has risen again, the downstream peak season is not obvious, and the demand support is insufficient. But the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is okay, so the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. Consider a sideways trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton in the short - term. In the long - term, be optimistic about cotton prices after the seasonal pressure and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5387 yuan/ton yesterday, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season, with 15.177 million tons of sugarcane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced, with an average sugar yield of 7.64% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's supply remained strong in the second half of October, strengthening the oversupply expectation. Indian sugar mills have started crushing, and the sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 2025/26 season. The long - term oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the short - term decline space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar: The recently announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and Guangxi sugar mills are starting to crush, so the short - term supply pressure is high, driving the Zhengzhou sugar price to a new low [4] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support prices at the beginning of the season. The short - term decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. The long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and new lows may appear [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5212 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Some pulp prices in the imported wood pulp spot market showed a weakening trend [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply pattern remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was emerging. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the downstream paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8]
农产品日报:出栏积极性提升,猪价维持震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:06
农产品日报 | 2025-11-26 出栏积极性提升,猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11415元/吨,较前交易日变动+15.00元/吨,幅度+0.13%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.35元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤,现货基差 LH01-65,较前交易日变动-65;江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.45元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤,现货基差LH01+35,较前交易日变动-215;四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.57元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH01+155,较前交易日变动-15。 据农业农村部监测,11月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.94,比昨天上升0.24个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为128.13,比昨天上升0.28个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.72元/公斤,比昨天下降1.1%;牛肉66.88 元/公斤,比昨天上升0.7%;羊肉62.60元/公斤,比昨天下降0.3%;鸡蛋7.35元/公斤,与昨天持平;白条鸡17.55元/ 公斤,比昨天上升0.3%。 市场分析 综合来 ...
华泰期货流动性日报-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:06
流动性日报 | 2025-11-26 黑色建材板块成交2252.75亿元,较上一交易日变动-24.70%;持仓金额3633.73亿元,较上一交易日变动+0.11%; 成交持仓比为62.98%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场流动性概况 2025-11-25,股指板块成交6740.41亿元,较上一交易日变动-1.13%;持仓金额13043.20亿元,较上一交易日变动 -0.08%;成交持仓比为51.14%。 国债板块成交6167.96亿元,较上一交易日变动+4.52%;持仓金额8311.26亿元,较上一交易日变动+0.50%;成交持 仓比为74.91%。 基本金属板块成交3912.18亿元,较上一交易日变动-1.13%;持仓金额5810.09亿元,较上一交易日变动+2.01%;成 交持仓比为76.62%。 贵金属板块成交7167.44亿元,较上一交易日变动-11.91%;持仓金额4384.12亿元,较上一交易日变动+1.78%;成 交持仓比为214.55%。 能源化工板块成交3698.25亿元,较上一交易日变动-25.91%;持仓金额4525.67亿元,较上一交易日 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:供需两端均有减弱,多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].
新能源及有色金属日报:市场观望情绪相对浓重,铅价震荡偏弱-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:05
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 市场观望情绪相对浓重 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-11-25,LME铅现货升水为-28.49美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000 元/吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至17075元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9950元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10075元/吨,废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面:2025-11-25,沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨,收于17045元/吨,较前一交易日变化-90元/吨,全天交易日 成交40496手,较前一交易日变化2076手,全天交易日持仓52466手,手较前一交易日变化-422手,日内价格震荡, 最高点达到17130元/吨,最低点达到1 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:中美关系利好,镍不锈钢价格反弹-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].
黑色建材日报:宏观情绪乐观,钢价震荡运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [3] - Coking Coal: Oscillating weakly [4] - Coke: Oscillating [4] - Thermal Coal: Oscillating strongly [5][6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is optimistic, and steel prices are oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - The supply - demand disturbances of iron ore continue, and ore prices maintain an oscillation. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is accumulating. Coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, and coke prices follow coking coal fluctuations [3][4]. - The rigid demand for thermal coal procurement is stable, and coal prices are oscillating strongly. The supply is gradually tightening, but the port market sentiment is weak [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3106 yuan/ton and 3309 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, with 10.13 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure of coils and rebar has been well alleviated. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore was 97.5 tons, a 13.02% decrease from the previous day. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 165.0 tons, a 73.68% increase [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipment decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory continued to rise. Downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts due to continuous losses, and there is a possibility of further production cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. The coke market was stable and weak, and the production increased steadily. Some coal mines in the origin of coking coal had production cuts, and the import of Mongolian coal was affected by snow [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction gradually accumulated. The cost support of coke weakened, and the market sentiment turned weak [4]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be oscillating weakly, and coke should be oscillating. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgy and chemical industries was active. The port market sentiment was weak, and the downstream procurement demand was cold. The import coal bid price decreased [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply is gradually tightening, which supports coal prices. The inventory in coal mines is not high, but the inventory in northern ports has increased rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices are oscillating [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:消费端分歧较大,碳酸锂盘面或维持高位震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Group 1: Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 91,000 yuan/ton and closed at 95,400 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 511,279 lots, and the open interest was 343,199 lots, down from 365,078 lots the previous day. The current basis is 810 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,615 lots, a change of 105 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,800 - 94,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 88,300 - 91,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,120 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price is in the range of 90,000 - 92,000 yuan, downstream material factories increase their procurement, and market transactions become more active. As the futures price rises to around 95,000 yuan, downstream material factories reduce their price - fixing behavior. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, mainly focusing on the coefficient [1]. Group 2: New Energy Policy - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in 2026. The bidding does not distinguish between project types. The bidders are new energy projects that were put into operation (fully grid - connected) between June 1, 2025 (inclusive) and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), have not been included in the mechanism electricity price implementation scope, and voluntarily participate [2]. - The total scale of the bidding electricity is 1.2 billion kWh in 2026. The upper limit of the bidding price for wind and photovoltaic is 0.3598 yuan/kWh. The upper limit of the declared electricity volume for a single project does not exceed the estimated annual on - grid electricity volume, which is determined by multiplying the installed capacity by the annual average power generation utilization hours and deducting the power consumption of the power plant. The annual average power generation utilization hours for photovoltaic power generation in Beijing is 1,450 hours, and for wind power is 2,000 hours, with a power plant power consumption rate of 3%. The implementation period for the selected projects' mechanism electricity price is 12 years [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Currently, there are significant differences in the consumer end. There are large differences in the overall production scheduling expectations after the decline in the power end in the first - quarter off - season of 2026 and the supplement of energy storage. In the short term, it cannot be falsified, and the futures market may maintain high - level volatile operation [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and the resumption of production at the mine end, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. For inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading, there are no specific strategies. For options, sell out - of - the - money options on both sides [3].
新能源及有色金属日报:现货升贴水持续偏强运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]