Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - At present, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant fundamental contradictions. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mainly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. The lead price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 10, the quotation divergence in the imported ore market continued. With the silver price hitting new highs, the processing fee for silver - containing lead concentrates continued to decline. Domestically, some mines completed fourth - quarter pre - sales and suspended quotations, leading to a shortage of market - circulating resources. There were north - south differences in smelter processing fees. The winter - storage order processing fee in Henan and Inner Mongolia was 300 - 500 yuan/metal ton, while in Yunnan and Hunan, due to the decline in raw material inventory, some smelters could only purchase low - silver ore sources at 0 - 200 yuan/metal ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrates is difficult to improve [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 10, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was stable at 68.47%, a slight increase of 1.98% compared to before the holiday. A smelter in Henan resumed production as planned, increasing output slightly, while a company in Hunan was expected to see a decline in electrolytic lead output in October due to crude lead maintenance. Overall, the operating situation showed regional differentiation [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 10, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces rose to 34.04%, an increase of 5.63 percentage points. Anhui was the main driving force, with a large smelter resuming production and another entering the baking stage. The operating rate in Anhui is expected to rise by about 10 percentage points next week. The operating rates in other provinces were generally stable. It is expected that the enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises to start work will only increase limitedly [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 10, the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 61.71%, an increase of 6.58 percentage points. The resumption of work after the holiday was the main reason for the increase. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to recover next week, and the production rhythm will be more inclined to production - based - on - sales [2] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.69 million tons, a decrease of 2.05 million tons compared to the previous week. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 237,000 tons [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - For apples, continuous rainy weather has delayed the concentrated listing of red apples and compressed the acquisition and warehousing time. Good-quality apples are expected to have stable and strong prices with a significant price gap between good and average-quality apples. Attention should be paid to the game between merchants' acquisition mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2][3][4] - For red dates, the new season's red dates are at a critical period. The market has a relatively certain judgment on the production trend, and the fruit quality is better than last year. The futures price may face a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and production changes [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 8,744 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 127 yuan/ton, or 1.47% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade apples in Qixia, Shandong was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 - 1,144, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton. The price of 70 semi-commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 + 856, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market Information - As of October 9, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 67,900 tons. New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed. Due to continuous rainy weather, the coloring in the western producing areas is slow, and the large supply of red apples is delayed compared to last year [2] - In Shandong, the new-season late Fuji apples are mostly waiting to be colored. The coloring is slower than the same period last year, with few red apples and low commodity rates this year. Merchants are cautious in their acquisitions [2] - In Shaanxi, the coloring is slow, and the listing of red apples is limited. Most late Fuji apples are still in the coloring stage and will enter the concentrated trading stage in 5 - 7 days. Merchants are mostly in a wait-and-see mood [2] - In the sales areas, the number of incoming vehicles at the Guangdong Chalong Market fluctuates significantly. The terminal market consumption during the National Day holiday was slightly slower year-on-year. The sales of new-season late Fuji good-quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some backlog in the transit warehouses [2] Market Analysis - New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed this week, but the acquisition and warehousing time is compressed. The sales during and after the Double Festival were average. Good-quality apples' prices are stable and slightly strong, and merchants are cautious in their acquisitions but active in acquiring good-quality apples [3] - Next week, late Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions will be on the market for trading. The price gap between good and average-quality apples will be obvious. If there is a rush to buy good-quality apples, the prices will remain stable and strong, while the prices of average-quality apples may not be strong due to the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Currently, late Fuji apples are being traded sporadically. Due to weather conditions, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. Good-quality apples' prices are expected to be stable and strong, with a significant price gap [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the Red Dates 2601 contract rose slightly. As of October 10, the closing price was 11,145 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 325 yuan/ton, or 3.00% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2024 production season was concentrated at 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The spot price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was CJ01 - 1,645, a week-on-week decrease of 325 [5] Recent Market Information - The new-season red dates are at a critical period between the old and new production seasons. The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the drying period, with good overall growth and are about to be harvested, possibly about a week earlier than last year [6] - Inland merchants have gone to Xinjiang to contract orchards around the National Day holiday. The orchard contracting process in Hotan and Aksu is relatively fast, with the contracting price range at 5.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, and a small amount of high-quality goods priced around 9.00 yuan/kg [6] - The market has a relatively certain judgment on the new-season jujube production trend. The weather is sunny with little rainfall, which is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. The market's concerns about jujube quality have been alleviated, and the jujube quality is better than last year [6] - The arrival volume in the sales areas this week is low. During the National Day holiday, the arrival volume at the Hebei market's parking area was more than 10 vehicles, significantly lower than more than 200 vehicles in the same period last year. Affected by continuous rainfall, there are few merchants looking at and purchasing goods, and the trading atmosphere is light [6] Market Analysis - Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - and peak - seasons and the "alternation of old and new seasons." Grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing areas are about to be harvested, and merchants are starting to contract orchards in small quantities [7] - Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the spot market in the sales areas this week was average, with downstream rigid - demand purchases as the main form. The spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading was a bit light [7] - The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in recent years, and there is still inventory pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] - The jujube production in the 2024 production season was large, and the inventory was high, but the quality was not good. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - depletion, and a production reduction is a normal expectation. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 620,000 tons [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overall, if the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue; otherwise, the red dates' futures prices will face a volatile pattern with limited upward movement and strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to consumption, new - season quality, and production changes [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - From October 9th to 10th, the Treasury bond market showed a volatile pattern of "rising first and then falling." After the holiday, the market sentiment improved significantly, and both the bond and stock markets rose. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board. However, on October 10th, the market reversed sharply due to concerns about liquidity tightening and rising geopolitical risks [3]. - For strategies, in the unilateral aspect, with the decline of repo rates and the oscillation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is cautiously bullish; in the arbitrage aspect, attention should be paid to the decline of the T2512 basis; in the hedging aspect, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Macroeconomic Aspect - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment. In October, the US added Chinese entities to the export control list and imposed special port fees, and China responded similarly [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - Capital Aspect - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The increase in RMB loans in the first eight months was 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. Deposit growth was 8.6%, and the growth rates of credit and deposits declined slightly [2]. - Central Bank: On October 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.42%, and 1.48% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. Market Analysis - Market Aspect - Closing Prices: On October 10, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.65 yuan, 107.98 yuan, and 113.97 yuan respectively. The weekly price changes were - 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, 0.04 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan respectively [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repo rates and the oscillation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is cautiously bullish [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the T2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a gap between strong expectations and weak reality, with economic pressure increasing marginally in August, featuring "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption," and external tariff pressure rising. The government has introduced policies such as new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations to address these issues. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has intensified. With the expiration of the tariff delay on November 10 approaching, the market's concern about the risks brought by tariff friction has risen rapidly. Before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, and the market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of the event. In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the impact of Sino - US negotiations on agricultural products [4]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals in the commodity and stock index futures markets [5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with external tariff pressure increasing from the US, Mexico, India, etc. The government has introduced policies to stabilize growth, including new policy - based financial tools and large - scale repurchase operations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has escalated. The US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and increasing tariffs on imported products. China has responded with export controls on rare earths. Before the South Korea APEC Summit, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting economic data release. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends, and gold is expected to strengthen [4]. Strategy - In the commodity and stock index futures markets, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals [5]. To - do List - On October 6, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from November 1, 2025. On September 25, he had announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1 [6]. - The Fed's attitude towards the economy and inflation is complex. Some officials believe that continued easing may be appropriate this year, but inflation has upward risks, and employment has downward risks [6]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September, and on October 9, it carried out 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations [6]. - The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement came into effect on October 9, and Israel approved the agreement on October 10 [6]. - The US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships starting from October 14, which seriously violates international trade principles and the Sino - US shipping agreement [6]. Macroeconomic Indicators - **US Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 2.08%, the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.00, and the service PMI was 54.20. Investment, employment, inflation, consumption, finance, and net exports all had corresponding data changes [8]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 1.30%, the manufacturing PMI was 49.80, and the service PMI was 51.30. There were also changes in investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and finance [9]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In the third quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.2%. Trade, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and other aspects had different trends, such as a 5.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in export volume and a 0.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in fixed - asset investment [10]. Interest Rates - The report provides data on the 10 - year and 2 - year Sino - US Treasury bond spreads [21]. Foreign Exchange - It includes data on the week - on - week change of the US dollar against major currencies and the trend of the US dollar index [24][26].

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 贸易战恶化对铝基本面影响极为有限 重要数据 铝 截至2025-10-10，伦铝收盘于2746.0美元/吨，沪铝主力收盘于20980元/吨，华东现货升贴水-50元/吨，中原地区现 货升贴水-80元/吨，佛山地区现货升贴水-115元/吨。 LME铝现货升贴水(0-3)-1.6美元/吨。 供应：截至2025-10-10，电解铝建成产能4523.2万吨，周度环比+0.0万吨，运行产能4445.4万吨，周度环比+1.5万吨， 行业开工率98.28%。 需求：根据钢联数据统计，铝棒周度产量35.94万吨，周度环比变化-0.05万吨，铝板带箔周度产量36.34万吨，周度 环比变化-0.07万吨。根据上海有色数据统计，铝线缆龙头企业开工率64.00%，周度环比变化-3.00%，铝板带龙头 企业开工率68.00%，周度环比变化-1.00%，铝箔龙头企业开工率72.30%，周度环比变化-0.30%，铝型材开工率 53.60%，周度环比变化-1.00%。 库存：截至2025-10-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.9万吨，周度变化+5.7万吨，铝棒库存13.9万吨，周度 变化 ...

化工周报 | 2025-10-12 主港大幅累库，EG价格偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 价格价差：本周乙二醇盘面大幅下跌，市场商谈一般。假期内原油市场表现偏弱，乙二醇供应端表现宽松。乙二 醇港口库存大幅堆积，国庆假期前后外轮集中抵港，主港大幅累库，市场心态表现偏弱。乙二醇内盘重心持续走 低。 供应：中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在75.08%（环比上周+2.00%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇 开工负荷在78.83%（环比上周+4.47%）。本周几套合成气制装置重启，EG总负荷回升至高位，关注裕龙石化顺利 出料后的运行情况，以及福炼、盛虹等装置检修落地，预计国内供应较为宽裕。 需求：江浙织机负荷70.0%（环比上周+0.0%），江浙加弹负荷82.0%（环比上周+1.0%），聚酯开工率91.50%（环比 上周+0.00%），直纺长丝负荷93.80%（环比上周+0.20%）。POY库存天数20.0天（环比上周+5.7天）、FDY库存天数 21.4天（环比上周+4.7天）、DTY库存天数29.7天（环比上周+3.2天）。涤短工厂开工率94.3%（-1.1%），涤短工厂权 益库存天数10.0天（环比上周+0.8 ...

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