FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合计交付运力215.5万TEU。 12000-16999TEU船舶合计交付80艘，合计121.3万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付13艘，合计277672TEU。交付预 期层面，12000-16999TEU船舶：2026年交付78.12万TEU（53艘），2027年交付94.45万TEU（64艘），2028年交付121.2 万TEU（82艘），2029年交付41.54万TEU（29艘）。 17000+TEU船舶： 2026年交付21.04万TEU（9艘），2027年交付86.28万TEU（40艘），2028年交付157.34万TEU（78 艘）,2029年交付137.55万TEU（67艘）。总体来看，2026年超大型船舶交付压力相对较小，2027年、2028年以及2029 年17000+TEU船舶年度交付量均超过40艘。2026年上半年交付17000+TEU以上船舶仅4艘。 动态供给：1月份月度剩余2周均运力34.22万TEU，WEEK4/5周运力分别为40.86/27.58 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-21 供应压力延续，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 豆粕库存出现明显下滑，但仍维持百万吨以上，高于去年同期，叠加近期进口大豆拍卖情况良好，使得国内近期 供应较为宽松。综合来看，巴西大豆丰产预期进一步加巩固，未来供应压力延续，仍需重点关注南美大豆收获情 况以及美豆出口情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美天气情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2603合约2280元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.04%；玉米淀粉2603合约2550元/吨，较 前日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C03+65，较前日变动+1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2630元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CS03+80，较前 日变动+15。 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2736元/吨，较前日变动+9元/吨，幅度+0.33%；菜粕2605合约2229元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.36%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+42 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱，现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转，但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下，玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务，因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加，供应维持高位，高供应持续压 制纯碱价格；需求端，下游浮法玻璃刚需一般，光伏玻璃需求改善有限，刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局，叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导，纯碱将面临进一步下行压力，关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...

1. Report Overview - The coffee series special report consists of four parts, with the fourth one summarizing the main characteristics of the current Yunnan coffee industry from four aspects: planting cost, grading classification, pricing mechanism, and industrial chain development [3] 2. Planting Cost: Diverse Accounting - As of November 2025, the average yield per mu of commercial coffee fresh fruit in Yunnan is about 700 - 800 kg, and about every 6 - 7 kg of fresh fruit can produce 1 kg of green beans, so the yield of green coffee beans is about 120 kg per mu. The cost of fresh coffee fruit is about 5 yuan/kg, and the cost of green coffee beans is between 25 - 40 yuan/kg. Cost components include rent, labor, fertilizers, picking, and initial processing [6] - Different business entities, production areas, varieties, and planting patterns have a significant impact on costs. Small and medium - sized coffee farmers mainly grow commercial beans, while boutique coffee is mainly planted in estates. The cost of boutique estates is 2 - 3 times that of small and medium - sized farmers [7] - High - altitude production areas have higher costs due to the need to optimize the planting environment and management standards for high - quality varieties. Yunnan coffee is often planted in a multi - layer composite structure with economic crops like macadamia, which can share costs and increase efficiency [7][8] 3. Bean Grading: Unique Standards - Coffee grading is based on various standards, with the ICO and SCA standards having an increasing influence. The market is divided into commodity beans and boutique beans, with different grading methods [9] - Physical attributes include bean size (classified by screen size), shape (round and uniform preferred), color (light blue or light green for Yunnan beans), density (higher density is better), moisture content (controlled at 9% - 12%), and processing methods (washed beans are cleaner) [15] - Defect assessment includes counting major and minor defects, with the boutique level requiring no major defects and no more than 5 total defects per 300g (SCA standard). Defects affect flavor purity [16] - Altitude is directly related to bean hardness and acidity, and regional soil properties also affect the bean grade. Cup - tasting is a unique and important part of coffee grading, with clear evaluation criteria for different dimensions [17][21] 4. Pricing Mechanism: Rich Dimensions - The global coffee pricing mechanism is a complex system composed of the futures market, the spot market, and special trading mechanisms. The futures market price dominates the global coffee spot market pricing [23] - The ICE Arabica coffee futures contract and the ICE Europe Robusta coffee futures contract are the most influential in the world. The spot market pricing generally uses the "futures price + premium/discount" model, and high - quality boutique coffee uses a flavor - based pricing mechanism [23][24][25] - Historically, Yunnan coffee prices were mainly determined by international coffee traders and large foreign - funded enterprises. Currently, domestic enterprises have become the main players in Yunnan coffee trade, and the dependence on the international futures market is decreasing [26][27] - The entire coffee industry chain looks forward to the construction of a domestic coffee futures market, which can help farmers, traders, and enterprises manage price risks and enhance China's international pricing power [29] 5. Industrial Chain: Uneven Development - The Yunnan coffee industry chain consists of upstream planting, mid - stream processing, and downstream distribution, showing an uneven development pattern. However, this situation has been continuously improved with policy support [30] - In terms of value distribution, the downstream distribution环节accounts for 93% of the value - added, while the upstream planting accounts for only 1% and the mid - stream processing accounts for 6%. The upstream is highly affected by price fluctuations, and the mid - stream has limited value - added due to low - end processing [31][32] - In terms of industrial chain concentration, the upstream and mid - stream have low concentration, with small - scale and scattered operations. The downstream has a relatively high concentration, and the market is shifting from extensive expansion to refined operation, but brand building and traceability systems still need improvement [34][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House has slightly affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price has been somewhat affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation recently, the copper price may be in a temporary shock pattern, with the shock range expected to be between 99,500 yuan/ton and 125,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 19, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 101,030 yuan/ton and closed at 101,180 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,680 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to par against the current - month contract, with an average discount of 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 100,590 to 101,290 yuan/ton. The market trading was light, and the spot discount pattern may continue [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss the US tariff issue, and the EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [3] - **Mine End**: Australian copper developer Austral Resources will acquire Glencore's Lady Loretta zinc - lead mine in Queensland. Canadian First Quantum Minerals lowered its copper production guidance for the next two years [4] - **Smelting and Import**: LME copper inventory rebounded from a two - month low, SHFE copper inventory continued to rise to a nine - month high, and New York copper inventory reached a new high. In December 2025, China's unforged copper and copper products exports increased by 117.0% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 21.8% year - on - year [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,450 tons to 147,425 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 7,762 tons to 152,655 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5] 3.2 Strategy - The strategy for copper is neutral, with an expected shock range of 99,500 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 19, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.1996 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.4638 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.9191 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.0889 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.6007 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0284 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1935 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.2271 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 0.49 million call contracts and 0.5759 million put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 1.0659 million contracts [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.89, with a month - on - month change of +0.08; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.82, with a month - on - month change of +0.01. Similar data are provided for other types of options [2] - The table details the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, open interest PCR, and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [32] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 15.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.30%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 16.00%, with a month - on - month change of - 2.16%. Similar data are provided for other types of options [3] - The table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the non - ferrous sector may slow down in the short term, while there is a certain divergence between domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Attention should be paid to the rotation potential of low - valued sectors, and specific opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The driving force of the non - ferrous sector has slowed down. Trump announced no new tariffs on key mineral imports but plans to impose tariffs on goods from eight European countries starting from 2026. The Fed Chairman candidate situation is uncertain, and the CME will adjust the margin settings for precious metals. The CMX - LME spread of copper has converged, so the short - term upward trend of the non - ferrous sector may ease. On January 19, the market fluctuated, with gold stocks, grid equipment stocks, and robot concepts performing well [1] Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - Since October, overseas economic prosperity has declined, but China's exports and new orders remain positive. In December, China's exports and imports exceeded expectations. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching over 140 trillion yuan. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the mining and manufacturing industries had positive investment growth. China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December were better than expected, while the US manufacturing index declined and non - farm payrolls were lower than expected [2] Commodity Sector Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, long - term supply constraints remain, but short - term growth may slow. In the energy sector, the US plans to "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. In the black metal sector, domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair potential should be focused on. For precious metals, there are opportunities to buy gold on dips [3] Market Trends and Key Data - On January 19, the market fluctuated, with gold stocks, grid equipment stocks, and robot concepts rising. China's GDP in 2025 reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, with different growth rates in different industries and quarters. In December, China's industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, while social consumption growth slowed. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and recommended to buy on dips for hedging after a pullback in the medium term [3] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: The US has postponed military action against Iran, causing crude oil prices to retreat, but potential risks remain [1] - PX: PXN was at $331/ton in the previous trading session (a $5.75/ton increase from the previous period). Spot prices are in a C structure of -3 after the contract rollover. Floating prices are weakening. Supply is expected to increase due to improved PX profitability, and more imports are likely from arbitrage. With demand-side maintenance plans being implemented, PXN has retreated to $330/ton, but the medium-term outlook for PX remains positive [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 4 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). PTA spot processing fees are 349 yuan/ton (a 12 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the main contract's processing fees on the futures market are 340 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). Polyester factories' Spring Festival production cuts are being implemented, with the average polyester load in February expected to drop from around 83% to 81%, leading to increased inventory accumulation in February. In the long term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve after the end of the capacity expansion cycle [1] - Demand: Polyester operating rates are at 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease from the previous period). Weaving loads have slightly declined, with a small number of export orders recently. The rate of decline is slightly lower than expected, but it may accelerate during the concentrated holiday period around late January. Due to the firm prices of polyester yarns, the downstream market is having difficulty absorbing the cost increases, and procurement enthusiasm is low, leading to inventory accumulation in long filaments. Polyester maintenance plans for January are being implemented, with the average load in January around 88% and expected to drop to around 81% in February [2] - PF: Spot production profit is 32 yuan/ton (a 56 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The operating rate of direct-spun polyester staple fibers remains stable, with a slight increase in equity inventory and a decrease in physical inventory. After the market correction, downstream replenishment was active, but demand is weakening, and the market will focus on inventory digestion in the future [2] - PR: The spot processing fee for polyester bottle chips is 552 yuan/ton (a 24 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Polyester bottle chip factories' Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented, and inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market supply of spot goods has slightly decreased. As prices decline, market trading activity has picked up again, and processing fees for polyester bottle chips have slightly recovered [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [15][17] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include long - filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun long - filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, long - filament DTY factory inventory days, long - filament FDY factory inventory days, long - filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates [45][47][55] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between raw and recycled fibers (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][71][75] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][92]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut sectors is neutral [1][3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is supported by pre - holiday restocking, while the peanut market is in a stalemate with supply - demand imbalance [1][3] - The soybean futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price was stable in the north and with accelerated trading in the south. Policy support weakened as the state - reserve purchase price did not rise further and some northern direct - purchase warehouses stopped buying [1][2] - The peanut futures price rose slightly. The overall supply in the domestic peanut market is abundant, and the market lacks directional drivers in the short term [3][4][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybean No.1 2605 contract was 4321.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 119, a change of + 3 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - The soybean spot market in the Northeast remained stable, with weak demand and low trading activity. Some holders were more willing to sell as the policy - supported purchase price did not increase [1] - The soybean spot market in the South was stable, and trading accelerated due to pre - holiday raw material procurement by downstream enterprises. The prices in the sales areas were also stable, and some enterprises' restocking needs provided support [2] - The state - reserve purchase price did not increase further, and some northern direct - purchase warehouses stopped buying, weakening policy support [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7890.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 60.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.77%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8000.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 18.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.23%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 890.00, a change of - 60.00 (+ 7.23%) from the previous day [3] Market Information - The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market was basically stable. The average contract purchase price of oil - processing peanuts by national oil mills was 7350 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong was stable [3] - The overall supply in the domestic peanut market is abundant. Some holders were more willing to sell due to inventory pressure. The purchase prices of major oil mills for oil - processing peanuts remained stable, but there were vehicle backlogs and returns in some factories [4] - The market lacks directional drivers in the short term as the pre - holiday stocking window is narrowing and weather may affect logistics and trading [4][5] Strategies - The strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [1][3][6] Risks - For peanuts, there is a risk of weakening demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption is entering the traditional off - season with a slowdown in downstream operating rates, but the accumulation of social inventory is slow. Zinc prices are still undervalued, and downstream acceptance of prices is relatively good with stable spot premiums. The suspension of KZ and YP zinc delivery business on the LME has limited impact on the current inventory structure assessment, and delivery qualifications can be restored after re - approval, but the risk of source tracing needs attention. TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting is still facing losses. Long - term consumption is still promising, inventory pressure is not high, and zinc prices are still undervalued [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$34.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by ￥380 per ton to ￥24,420 per ton, with a spot premium of ￥40 per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by ￥390 per ton to ￥24,420 per ton, with a spot premium of ￥0 per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by ￥380 per ton to ￥24,360 per ton, with a spot premium of -￥20 per ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On January 19, 2026, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at ￥24,560 per ton, closed at ￥24,450 per ton, down ￥475 per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 224,507 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots. The highest price during the day was ￥24,600 per ton, and the lowest was ￥24,335 per ton [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 122,000 tons, a change of 3,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,050 tons, a change of - 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3]