投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250724 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：全球关税路径趋明，中美下周重启谈判 海外方面，对等关税有所进展，①欧媒称美欧接近达成关税协议，拟设 15%基准税率、 部分行业豁免；②特朗普称将对多数国家征收 15%-50%关税，若主要国家开放市场，美国 愿意取消关税；③美中拟下周斯德哥尔摩会谈，争取 8 月 12 日前达成协议。美财长贝森特 称美联储预测带有政治偏见，特朗普再度施压鲍威尔，要求尽快降息，目前 9 月降息概率升 至 61%。随着多国关税路径逐步明朗，市场风险偏好上升，标普 500 再创新高，金价回调， 美元指数偏弱，铜价震荡收涨。当前美国基本面依然稳健，美联储独立性与关税博弈构成主 要不确定性来源，今日关注 7 月 PMI 数据。 国内：股市与商品市场情绪依旧积极，但多空博弈加剧，情绪或临近阶段性高点。A 股 冲高回落，两市成交维持 1.9 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 领涨，整体赚钱效应趋弱，内需商品 出现部分获利了结迹象。 ...

Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, there is intense tariff - related game - playing among countries. The US - EU trade negotiation is bleak, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has increased market uncertainty. In the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold, copper, etc. [2] - Domestically, the expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. [2] - For different commodities, most are expected to show a certain degree of strength in the short - term, but are also affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. [3][6][7][8][10][11][13][15][17][19][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The August 1st tariff deadline is approaching. The US emphasizes "quality first", and many countries are in intense tariff - related games. The US - EU trade negotiation is on the verge of collapse, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has not subsided, increasing political pressure on the Fed. During the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold and copper. [2] - Domestic: The expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. The risk preference of the stock and commodity markets continues to increase, and the Treasury bond yield rises. [2] 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce. The uncertainty of the US reaching a trade agreement before August 1st, the weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the brewing of EU counter - measures against US tariffs have all boosted precious metal prices. The market's speculation about the possible replacement of Fed Chairman Powell and the reshaping of the Fed has also increased market tension. It is expected that precious metal prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. [3][4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and LME copper rose strongly above $9800. The spot market of electrolytic copper had good transactions, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Domestically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce an action plan to support key industrial sectors, which will significantly boost metal demand. Abroad, SolGold is accelerating the development of its copper - gold project in Ecuador. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short - term, affected by factors such as global trade situations and supply - demand relationships. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The overseas market is cautious before the US tariff negotiation deadline, and the domestic market interprets the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a new round of supply - side reform, which has led to a significant increase in Shanghai aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has slightly increased, and the spot transaction maintains a high premium. It is expected that aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's requirements for structural adjustment and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries have increased the market's expectation of supply - side interference, driving up the alumina futures price. It is expected that alumina will continue to run strongly in the short - term. [11] 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth is expected to ferment, and the LME still has a risk of short - squeezing. The domestic consumption off - season has certain resilience, and the pattern of weak supply and demand has not been effectively reflected in inventory. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. After the current - month delivery, the inventory continued to increase, and the downstream battery consumption has not improved significantly, which has dragged down the lead price. However, the cost - side support is effective, and the policy of stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metal industry has a positive impact on the lead price. In the short - term, the lead price will stabilize and fluctuate. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The positive market atmosphere boosts the tin price. Fundamentally, the resumption of work in some smelters has slightly increased the operating rate of refined tin, but overall it remains at a low level. The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory has slightly increased. Although the tin price runs strongly following the non - ferrous metal sector in the short - term, the expected improvement in the raw material end may limit its upward space. [16][17] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The supply - side has shrunk significantly, and the new policy has boosted the spot market. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has dropped below 50%, and the operating rate in the Sichuan - Yunnan region has limited recovery during the wet season. The demand side is affected by factors such as cost and market acceptance. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [18][19] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated, and the spot price rose slightly. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to promote the stable growth of ten major industries has boosted the lithium price. Although the fundamental situation of weak supply and demand has not been alleviated, the lithium price is currently dominated by policies. However, the special cost - ladder structure of lithium carbonate may limit the intensity of policy support, and the increase in lithium price may be less than that of other related varieties. [20] 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated strongly. The domestic policy of promoting the stable growth of the non - ferrous metal industry has boosted the nickel price. Although the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, the price of pure nickel has risen under policy drive, and the market for nickel sulfate has recovered. It is expected that the nickel price will strengthen under policy drive in the short - term. [22][23] 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. Geopolitical factors, such as the possible instability of the Iran - Israel cease - fire agreement, may have an impact on oil prices. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force in the oil market. Potential geopolitical risks may support oil prices, but the upward space is limited, and the oil market will fluctuate. [24][25] 3.13 Steel Products (Screw - Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. At the steel enterprise forum, steel enterprises reached a consensus on strengthening self - discipline and controlling production. The spot market has an increase in both volume and price, and the trade sentiment is good. The macro - level large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The supply - side contraction offsets the unfavorable situation of off - season demand. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a strong trend. The arrival of iron ore at ports has decreased, and the shipment has remained stable. The macro - level anti - involution policy improves the fundamental expectation, and the large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, and the demand for iron ore has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [27] 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean good - rate has decreased, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is changeable. The domestic bean meal inventory continues to increase. The progress of US trade negotiations is slow, and the external market fluctuates and closes down. It is expected that the domestic bean meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures price fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first and middle of July, but the export demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic palm oil inventory continued to increase. The increase in profit - taking behavior of long - position funds has led to a decline in the domestic market after a rise. In the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly. [30][31]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 141 to close at 4,316 ringgit/ton, a 3.38% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 282 to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 174 to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, a 2.18% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 147 to close at 9,586 yuan/ton, a 1.56% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 2.01 to close at 55.58 cents/pound, a 3.75% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 15.9 to close at 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.33% increase [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. In the biodiesel sector, Indonesia's B40 policy is being gradually implemented, and its domestic B50 plan is in the testing and research phase, expected to be fully implemented in January 2026, leading to high bullish sentiment among funds and a significant increase in palm oil prices. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy will exacerbate the tight supply expectation of US soybean oil, resulting in a relatively obvious increase, and the domestic market is driven by this, with soybean oil performing stronger than rapeseed oil [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US retail and employment data are strong, the inflation data are generally moderate, the impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected, the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has cooled, and the US dollar closed higher at a weekly low. In China, the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the bullish atmosphere, and commodity prices have generally increased. Fundamentally, it is currently the production - increasing season, with both supply and demand increasing. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, increasing the demand for biodiesel, and the upcoming B50 policy will exacerbate the tight supply - demand pattern. The US's unexpected biodiesel target will also exacerbate the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the price data of various oil and fat contracts on July 18 and July 11, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, etc., as well as their price changes and percentage changes [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose last week, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B40 and the upcoming B50) and the US biodiesel policy are the main factors driving the price increases [6]. - From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06%, but its export volume decreased according to different survey agencies. The export tax of Malaysian palm oil in August will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [7][8]. - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. India's palm oil import volume in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% [8]. Industry News - Indonesia expects its palm oil tax revenue this year to reach 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.84 billion), and plans to replant 50,000 hectares of palm plantations this year, lower than the target of 180,000 hectares [11]. - According to a report, global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025, reaching $1,200/ton, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and increased global demand driven by biodiesel policies [11]. - AI is being used in the Malaysian palm oil industry, improving the oil extraction rate by 0.1%, increasing the normal operation time of the factory by 5 - 10%, and reducing the dependence on manual labor by 45% [12]. - India aims to increase its domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [12]. - UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, production is expected to increase, and inventory may remain stable [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][39][42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation is neutrally positive, while there are more negative factors in the fundamentals. The impact of tariffs on battery exports is uncertain, consumption improvement is limited, and inventory has increased, putting pressure on lead prices. However, after the decline in lead prices, cost - side support emerges, and the elimination of backward production capacity by high - quality domestic supply is expected to improve the oversupply situation in the lead market. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes and consumption improvement [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,075 yuan/ton to 16,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,017 dollars/ton to 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.47 to 8.36; the SHFE inventory increased from 55,149 tons to 62,335 tons, an increase of 7,186 tons; the LME inventory rose from 249,375 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 19,025 tons; the social inventory increased from 63,400 tons to 69,000 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons; the spot premium increased from - 225 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated and declined, with both domestic and foreign inventories rising simultaneously. The increase in tariffs on Chinese battery exports by Middle - Eastern countries dragged down the demand outlook. The lead price broke below the 17,000 - yuan mark and ended at 16,820 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.49%. On Friday night, it opened and closed higher. The strengthening of the US dollar and the significant increase in LME inventory dragged down the LME lead price, which continued to decline from 2,050 dollars/ton and then stabilized and rebounded on Thursday and Friday, finally closing at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.27%. In the spot market, on July 18th, the lead prices in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2508 contract. Some smelting enterprises held firm on prices due to inventory reduction, and the price difference between the north and the south narrowed. The downstream demand was more inclined to the primary lead market [5] Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly processing fee for domestic lead concentrates was reported at 500 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton compared to the previous week; the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates was - 50 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. In mid - August 2024, the Technical Secretariat for International Trade Anti - Damage Actions of the GCC announced an anti - dumping investigation into lead - acid batteries originating from or imported from China or Malaysia. According to the latest news, Middle - Eastern countries will impose different levels of tariffs on relevant Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises, with tariff ranges of 25 - 40%, 50 - 65%, and 55 - 70%, and 40 - 65% for other cooperative Chinese enterprises [8] Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

铝周报 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 7 月 21 日 消息主导 铝价偏强运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 一、交易数据 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周美国CPI数据略有上行，但核心通胀水平依然温 和，市场对美联储降息预期谨慎，但仍保留了两次降 息预期次数。其后美国首申及零售数据保持韧性，令 美指周内连续反弹。国内工信部周末称对有色、钢铁 等重要十大行业优化产业结构，淘汰落后产能。基本 面，供应端贵州电解铝产能继续复产， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound due to the continuous boost of the anti - involution policy. The photovoltaic mid - and downstream sectors have entered a collective production cut rhythm, and the release rate of new upstream silicon material production capacity has significantly slowed down. The supply side is in a state of passive contraction, while the demand side is weak, and the industrial silicon spot price shows an oscillating upward trend. Technically, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillating upward trend in the short term [2][6][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the industrial silicon主力 contract price rose from 8415.00 yuan/ton to 8695.00 yuan/ton, with a increase of 3.33%. The prices of various spot grades also generally increased, except for the unchanged price of polysilicon dense material. The industrial silicon social inventory decreased from 55.1 tons to 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.73% [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, China's goods trade export volume reached 13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Exports to emerging markets grew rapidly, and high - tech product exports increased by 9.2% [7] - **Supply - side**: As of July 18th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas was 235, and the overall open furnace rate slightly rose to 29.8%. The open furnace rate in Xinjiang has dropped below 50%, and the increase in the open furnace rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is limited. The production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is under pressure [7][8][10] - **Demand - side**: Polysilicon prices continue to rise due to cost increases, but there are no new orders for high - priced products. Silicon wafer companies have large differences in quotes, and high - level transactions are limited. Photovoltaic cells have the motivation to increase prices, but the overall increase in TOPCON cells is small. The component market has low terminal acceptance, and the demand for distributed projects has shrunk significantly in early Q3. Under the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the demand in the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a downward cycle [2][6][8] - **Inventory - aspect**: As of July 18th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,400 lots, equivalent to 252,000 tons. After the new regulations on delivery standards were introduced, the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened [9] Industry News - On July 9th, the General Administration of Market Supervision and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on promoting the development of new energy through metrology from 2025 - 2030, including research and application demonstrations of key common metrology technologies in multiple new energy fields [11] - Driven by policies, there has been a boom in photovoltaic installations in Zhejiang Province this year. In the first half of the year, the new installed capacity was 12.2 million kilowatts. On July 3rd, the maximum photovoltaic output in the province reached 37.61 million kilowatts, a record high. The province is also accelerating the construction of supporting facilities and exploring "photovoltaic +" scenarios [12] Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production of main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products [14][15][16][17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, the moderate rebound of inflation and the better - than - expected retail data in the US highlighted economic resilience. Domestically, the good performance of H1 GDP was offset by concerns about insufficient policy stimulus in H2. The statement of optimizing supply by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18th ignited market enthusiasm [3][4][11]. - Fundamentally, domestic refinery production increased, with stable operation of new projects, slowdown in processing fee growth, good refinery profits, and sufficient raw materials. The supply was on the rise. The zinc market remained stronger overseas than in China, and imports were difficult to increase. In the demand side, it was the off - season for consumption, and the actual demand was weak. The galvanized plate consumption confidence was boosted, but the actual order increment was limited. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide were weak. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the spot premium further declined, while the inventory accumulation slowed down [4]. - Overall, the domestic and foreign macro - environment was moderately positive, and the fundamentals were weak. The market hoped that the supply optimization could improve the surplus situation of the zinc market. In the short term, the zinc price was mainly influenced by macro and policy expectations, and the futures price was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, it was still unclear how the supply optimization policy would affect the zinc industry chain, so caution was needed when chasing up the price [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE zinc decreased from 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th to 22295 yuan/ton on July 18th, a decline of 85 yuan/ton. LME zinc increased from 2738 dollars/ton to 2824 dollars/ton, an increase of 86 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.17 to 7.89, a decline of 0.28. The SHFE inventory increased by 4649 tons to 54630 tons, the LME inventory increased by 13850 tons to 119100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 60 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2509 first declined and then rebounded. Supported by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the black - series prices rose, which was beneficial to the zinc price. It found support around 22000 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly, closing at 22295 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LME zinc price stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2824 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream procurement motivation weakened, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc prices and premiums varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangdong, and Tianjin [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of July 18th, the LME zinc inventory was 119100 tons, an increase of 13850 tons from last week. The SHFE inventory was 54630 tons, an increase of 4649 tons. As of July 17th, the social inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10th. The inventory in Guangdong and Tianjin increased significantly, while that in Shanghai decreased slightly [8]. - In the macro - aspect, in the US, the CPI in June increased moderately, the core CPI was lower than expected, the PPI reached a new low, and the retail sales exceeded expectations. There were also various international trade and policy news, such as Trump's tariff - related statements and trade negotiations among countries. In China, the H1 GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries were about to be introduced [8][9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 18th, the average weekly TC of domestic Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 7.27 dollars/dry ton to 73.75 dollars/dry ton. Excellon Resources was preparing to restart the production of the Mallay silver - lead - zinc mine in Peru next year, which had produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc, and 35 million pounds of lead from 2012 to 2018 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, the spot premium, the LME premium, the inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, the processing fees of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the import profit and loss of zinc mines, the domestic refined zinc production, the smelter profit, the net import of refined zinc, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [14][16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was required to halt production, and there was an issue with the compliance of lithium mine approvals in Yichun. Driven by the rebound in lithium prices, the prices of spodumene concentrate and mica increased. Although production in July increased month - on - month, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium was poor, and the growth rate of terminal automobile consumption slowed, maintaining a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [3]. - On the trading floor: Driven by supply disruptions, the price of lithium carbonate started its second round of increase, with significant increases in positions and trading volume during the week, and strong market sentiment [3]. - Future outlook: Despite the weak fundamentals, the resource disruption events remain unresolved, which will boost the trading floor sentiment in the short term. The game between supply disruptions and weak reality may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. The supply of lithium salts will further increase, while downstream material factories' willingness to stockpile actively is poor, and the demand intensity is limited. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues, but the short - term price may still be strong [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate all increased, with the import of 1.3% - 2.2% lithium raw ore rising by 8.85% and the import of 5.5% - 6% lithium concentrate rising by 2.00% [4]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate spot increased by 8.84%, while the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot decreased by 100% [4]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 11.06%, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.80% [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and delivery**: As of July 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,239 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,580 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 377,300 lots [6]. - **Supply side**: As of July 18, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,313 tons, an increase of 155 tons from the previous period. Zangge Lithium stopped production due to compliance issues, and 8 mines in Yichun had approval compliance problems. The enthusiasm for resuming production in lithium salt factories was high [6]. - **Import aspect**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The import volume of lithium ore in May was about 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% [7][8]. - **Demand aspect**: - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of July 18, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The prices of cathode materials increased driven by the rebound of lithium carbonate [9]. - **New energy vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% but a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The growth rate of new energy vehicle consumption slowed down. There were also relevant policies and technological developments [10]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of July 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,990 tons, with factory inventory decreasing and market inventory increasing. The downstream replenishment sentiment was strong, and there may be an inflection point for inventory reduction [11]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook - Supply disruptions are frequent, and lithium prices are strong. Although the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, the resource disruption events are unresolved, and the short - term price may still be strong, with wide - range fluctuations [12]. 3.3 Industry News - Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was ordered to stop lithium resource development due to incomplete mining procedures [13]. - Lanxiao Technology's first 3,300 - ton lithium hydroxide production line in Tibet is undergoing on - site testing and commissioning [13]. - Anhui Shihao's project of an annual production of 2GWh lithium - ion power and energy - storage battery factory entered the pre - approval publicity stage [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrate, and cathode materials [15][17][20][24][26].

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 铁水环比增加 铁矿延续上涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3147 | 9 | 0.29 | 8063884 | 3107454 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 33 ...