Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, but the overall tariff pressure has been reduced, leading to strong uncertainty in the policy. Most Fed officials still believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices remains uncertain [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore prices have weakened, stainless - steel production has declined, spot inventories are high, steel mills' willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and the cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is still prominent. The power market has no significant changes, and nickel sulfate is relatively stable. Pure nickel continues the de - stocking trend, but the spot market is cold, and the premium has dropped significantly [3]. - Future outlook: Supply increases month - on - month, demand decreases month - on - month, and nickel prices lack fundamental drivers. In the short term, focus on macro risks. The nickel price may fluctuate weakly [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 120,540 yuan/ton on July 7, 2025, to 121,390 yuan/ton on July 11, 2025, an increase of 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,177 dollars/ton to 15,198 dollars/ton, an increase of 21 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 3,708 tons to 206,178 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 390 tons to 20,442 tons. Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium increased by 250 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. High - nickel pig iron average price decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 912 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory increased by 1.47 tons to 93.1 tons [4]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from 52 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia dropped from 46.9 dollars/wet ton to 46.4 dollars/wet ton. Due to rainfall disturbances, the supply shortage at the mine end has persisted. With the long - term pressure on nickel - iron, some nickel - iron plants have reduced production and carried out maintenance, alleviating the shortage of nickel ore and causing the high - level price to weaken [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 907.5 yuan/nickel point to 905 yuan/nickel point. In June, China's nickel - iron production was expected to be about 24,550 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%, and 24,540 tons in July, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production in June was 136,800 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.26%, and 134,700 nickel tons in July, a year - on - year increase of 28.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The stainless - steel production has shrunk significantly, the inventory is at an absolute high level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish nickel - iron is weak. The cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is increasing, and many plants have reduced production. If the production continues to shrink, it may drive the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly from 27,400 yuan/ton to 27,420 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In June, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 24,795 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of ternary materials increased to about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.95% and a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. As of July 4, the downstream nickel - sulfate inventory days increased to 13 days, and the upstream inventory days decreased to about 8 days. The high inventory may suppress the material plants' replenishment intensity, and the nickel - sulfate price may be difficult to rise further [7]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, with most countries seeing a decline in tariff rates compared to April. The Fed believes it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year and emphasizes observing the impact of tariffs on the supply chain [3][8]. - Fundamental: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and the smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The expected production of electrolytic nickel in July was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 1.25%. The export profit turned negative, which may suppress the domestic inventory de - stocking [8]. 4. Terminal Consumption - From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 135,000, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new - energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may drag down demand, and the export of new - energy vehicles to Europe is expected to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US will cancel subsidies for new - energy vehicle purchases after September 30. The domestic policy will focus on the automotive industry, and the demand is not expected to increase significantly [9]. 5. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 39,173 tons, a decrease of 1,144 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory is 20,442 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 399 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 206,178 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,708 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 226,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,318 tons [10]. 6. Industry News - Indonesia's approved nickel - ore production in 2025 reached 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [12]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 40,000 - ton nickel - based material production line in Morocco has been fully put into operation, and the base has a complete industrial - chain layout [12]. - Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Technology Co., Ltd.'s project of producing electrowon nickel - cobalt in a sulfuric - acid system has been successfully put into production [12]. - Indonesian ITMG acquired a 9.62% stake in a nickel - mining enterprise [12]. 7. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventories, nickel - ore port inventories, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - face is positive. The National Development and Reform Commission expects China's GDP in 2025 to be around 140 trillion yuan, and will promote the modern infrastructure system. The State Council aims to stabilize employment and the economy through policy measures [1]. - The fundamental data last week was weak. The production and sales of the five major steel products declined, and the inventory remained flat. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of rebar all decreased, and the demand for building materials was in the off - season. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the inventory increased slightly for three consecutive weeks [1]. - The recent rebound of rebar futures is mainly due to positive macro - expectations and supplemented by the improvement of the supply - demand structure. The short - term market sentiment is warm, and the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. However, due to the weak demand pattern, the upward pressure on the futures price is still large [1][5] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose strongly supported by macro - sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 (+30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+50) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300 (+50) yuan/ton [4]. - The macro - situation is positive with expected GDP scale and employment - stabilizing policies [4]. - The industrial data shows that last week, rebar production was 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 221 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; factory inventory was 181 million tons, unchanged; social inventory was 359 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; total inventory was 540 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; factory inventory was 78 million tons, a decrease of 0.51 million tons; social inventory was 268 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; total inventory was 346 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; apparent demand was 323 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [1][5] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development aims to stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period and announced new tariffs on Mexican and EU products [10]. - 33 construction enterprises issued an "anti - involution" initiative [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission gave GDP expectations and infrastructure development plans [10]. - The State Council issued an employment - stabilizing policy [10] Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel futures, including rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and consumption [9][11][16]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 113 to close at 4,175 ringgit/ton, a 2.78% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 210 to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, a 2.48% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 42 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 168 to close at 9,439 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decrease; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.97 to close at 53.57 cents/pound, a 1.78% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 36.1 to close at 683 Canadian dollars/ton, a 5.02% decrease [4][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and closed higher, but there was internal differentiation. Palm oil was the strongest. Although the MPOB report showed that export demand was lower than expected, domestic consumption increased significantly, and inventory continued to rise, which was slightly bearish overall, the export data in July showed a month - on - month increase. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, and there is an expectation of a B50 policy in the future. Coupled with the boost from the recovery of the domestic commodity market, palm oil had a large increase. The improvement of precipitation expectations in the Canadian canola - producing areas and the expectation of EU production recovery led to a decline in canola, dragging down domestic rapeseed oil. Although US soybean oil was supported by the expectation of the biodiesel policy, the decline of US soybeans during the week dragged it down [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US unilaterally issued a tax - levying letter, with a compressed negotiation time, and the process is expected to be slow. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's CPI data. Fundamentally, although the June MPOB report was slightly bearish, the recent strengthening of oil prices, the good export data in July, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy increasing biodiesel consumption, and the expectation of B50 implementation next year supported the strong performance of palm oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the trading data of various contracts from July 4th to July 11th, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the futures spreads between soybean and palm oil, rapeseed and palm oil, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector showed internal differentiation. Palm oil was strong due to factors such as export data improvement, policy support, and market sentiment. Rapeseed oil was weak because of the expected improvement in Canadian canola production and EU production recovery. US soybean oil was affected by the decline of US soybeans despite biodiesel policy expectations [7]. - The June MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.031 million tons, a 2.41% month - on - month increase; production was 1.692 million tons, a 4.48% month - on - month decrease; export volume was 1.259 million tons, a 10.52% month - on - month decrease; and consumption was 455,000 tons, a 43.79% month - on - month increase [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 10, 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production decreased by 35.28%. Different shipping survey agencies had different data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10, 2025, with ITS showing a 5.32% increase, AmSpec showing an 11.95% increase, and SGS showing a 28.14% decrease [7][8]. - As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.254 million tons, an increase of 34,400 tons from the previous week and 371,700 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 1,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 535,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 62,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 699,600 tons, a decrease of 27,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 308,600 tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 12,920 tons, compared with 6,440 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 370 tons, compared with 486 tons in the previous week [8]. Industry News - An Indian agricultural minister called on the central government to modify the palm oil import policy, increase the import tariff to 44%, and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton to protect domestic oil palm farmers [10]. - The Malaysian Minister of Plantation Industries said that the demand for Malaysian palm oil products in industrial applications, especially in food processing in sub - Saharan Africa, is increasing. Exports to North Africa increased by 63.5% in 2024, and exports to sub - Saharan Africa increased by 26% year - on - year in the first five months of 2025 [10]. - BMI expects that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons, but industrial demand may slow down due to factors such as the slow progress of biodiesel targets and stricter restrictions on waste cooking oil trade [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oils, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils [12 - 47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the international silver price broke through $39 per ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. Trump postponed the tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, but sent tax - levy letters to multiple trading partners, and the overseas tariff disturbance still exists. His announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US starting from August 1st drove up the price of US copper, and silver rose 4.7% last Friday due to its industrial attributes and the momentum of a catch - up rally, hitting a new high [2][3][6]. - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that only a few of the 19 policymakers supported a rate cut this month, and most officials were worried about the inflation pressure that Trump's trade tariffs might bring. There are increasing rumors that Powell may be forced to resign [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, and risk assets have not shown significant adjustments. However, the 50% tariff on imported copper has significantly affected the US copper price. It is expected that the catch - up rally of silver prices will continue [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.56 | - 3.50 | - 0.45 | 181932 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 769.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 32652 | 211814 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 3370.30 | 34.30 | 1.03 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9040 | 121 | 1.36 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9028 | 168 | 1.90 | 632508 | 3287648 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 39.08 | 2.04 | 5.49 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price was volatile and slightly stronger last week, and the international silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's tariff policies brought both buffer periods and disturbances. The Fed's policymakers were divided on rate cuts, and rumors about Powell's possible resignation are increasing [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, but the 50% tariff on imported copper affected the US copper price. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes and catch - up momentum, and its catch - up rally is expected to continue. This week, focus on the US June CPI, retail data, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting, and the Fed's release of the Beige Book [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in two months. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week was 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021 [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index was 4.5, the highest since February 2022. The Eurozone's May retail sales increased by 1.8% year - on - year [10]. - China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, the eighth consecutive month of increase [10]. - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US, effective August 1, 2025. The US imports nearly half of its copper, mostly from Chile [10]. - Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could consider a rate cut in July, and should adjust its asset holdings and reduce the bank reserve scale. Fed's Daly said the Fed may cut rates twice this year, and it's time to consider rate adjustments [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of precious metals prices, inventory, non - commercial net long positions, spreads, ratios, and their relationships with other economic indicators such as inflation expectations, the US dollar index, and bond yields [16][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, copper prices showed a pattern of strength in the overseas market and weakness in the domestic market. Trump's announcement of a 50% high - tariff on imported copper from August 1st caused a sharp rise in US copper prices. A large amount of cross - market arbitrage funds entered the market, suppressing the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper. Some Fed officials believe that there will most likely be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, boosting market risk appetite. US copper is strong, but the risk of inventory surplus after the tariff implementation poses a pressure on further upward movement. LME copper will maintain a relatively strong oscillation, while SHFE copper will be weak in the short term under the dual pressure of reduced imported supplies and cross - market arbitrage [3][9]. - Overall, Trump's two rounds of tariff collection actions have triggered market concerns about the deterioration of trade relations. The upcoming high - tariff on US copper has led to the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic copper prices. The Fed's meeting minutes show a large divergence between hawks and doves, and maintaining the status quo in July is still the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the resumption of overseas interrupted mines is slim, the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern, deliverable supplies are flowing into North America, and domestic social inventory is fluctuating at a low level. It is expected that the overseas copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and SHFE copper will face pressure to回调 and confirm the lower support [4][12][13]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From July 4th to July 11th, LME copper decreased from $9852.00/ton to $9663.00/ton, a decrease of $189.00 or - 1.92%; COMEX copper increased from 506.25 cents/pound to 558.4 cents/pound, an increase of 52.15 cents or 10.30%; SHFE copper decreased from 79730.00 yuan/ton to 78430.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1300.00 yuan or - 1.63%; international copper decreased from 70990.00 yuan/ton to 69600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1390.00 yuan or - 1.96%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.09 to 8.12. The LME spot premium decreased from $95.35/ton to - $21.57/ton, a decrease of $116.92 or - 122.62%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [5]. - As of July 11th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas increased to 491,373 tons, a 5.60% increase. Among them, LME copper inventory increased by 13,450 tons, LME0 - 3 shifted back to the B structure, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.6%; SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons; bonded area inventory increased by 2,500 tons, and the Yangshan copper bill of lading rose to $60. The COMEX premium over LME reached up to 28%, causing deliverable supplies to rush to North America [8][9]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices showed an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern last week. The high - tariff on US copper led to a sharp rise in COMEX copper, and cross - market arbitrage funds suppressed LME and SHFE copper. The Fed's possible interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment. US copper is restricted by inventory risks, LME copper will oscillate strongly, and SHFE copper will be weak in the short term. Overseas mines' resumption is difficult, and the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern [3][9]. - In terms of inventory, the global inventory continued to rebound. LME copper inventory increased, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and bonded area inventory increased. The COMEX - LME premium led to the transfer of supplies to North America, and some imported copper will flow back to China in the future. The Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.12 [9][10]. - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs to August 1st and threatened to impose high - tariffs on copper. COMEX copper soared and then fell. US consumer inflation expectations have eased. Fed officials are divided on the impact of tariffs on inflation, and most believe there will be at least two interest rate cuts this year, but there are also officials who think the interest rate will remain unchanged. In China, June's CPI and core CPI increased, while PPI decreased, but some factors will drive price recovery [11]. - In terms of supply and demand, overseas mines' interruptions continue, and the domestic spot TC remains at - $45/ton. Under the negative processing fee, large and medium - sized smelters maintain production with by - product profits, while some small and medium - sized smelters face the risk of production reduction. On the demand side, power grid investment projects have started, the copper cable enterprise's operating rate in June decreased slightly, the orders of refined copper rod enterprises declined, the new energy vehicle production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the traditional industry supports the demand base [12]. Industry News - In May, Codelco's copper production was 130,100 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase; Escondida's production was 132,000 tons, a 24.4% year - on - year increase; Collahuasi's production was 38,400 tons, a 16.9% year - on - year decrease. In June, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.135 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production in the first half of the year was 6.6 million tons, a 11.4% cumulative year - on - year increase [14]. - Hudbay Minerals temporarily suspended the operation of Snow Lake due to wildfires in northern Canada, but expects to resume operations efficiently once the wildfire situation improves and still aims to achieve its annual guidance in Manitoba in 2025 [14]. - Capstone Copper obtained environmental approval for its $150 - million Mantoverde Optimized project in Chile, which will extend the mine's service life from 19 to 25 years and increase the annual copper - equivalent production from 97,000 - 112,000 tons to 125,000 - 135,000 tons [15]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 250 - 550 yuan/ton last week, with the highest price decreasing by 50 yuan/ton. The decline in domestic copper premiums and the operating rate of cable enterprises led to a decrease in the order scale of refined copper rod enterprises. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will continue to decline slowly in mid - to - late July [16].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The tariff policy has reappeared as a disturbance, suppressing market risk appetite, but the impact has weakened marginally. Domestic policy expectations are positive, and the macro - environment is relatively stable. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high supply and declining demand in the off - season. Stockpiling has accelerated since July, but the strengthening overseas structure provides support. With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, zinc prices are fluctuating, and a volatile trading strategy is recommended [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc price decreased from 22410 yuan/ton on July 4th to 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th, a drop of 30 yuan/ton. LME zinc price increased from 2735.5 dollars/ton to 2738 dollars/ton, a rise of 2.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.19 to 8.17, a decline of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 4617 tons to 49981 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 7075 tons to 105250 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 9.03 million tons, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - The price of the main SHFE zinc contract ZN2508 first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, tariff disturbances and accelerated stockpiling dragged down the price, while in the second half, the strengthening overseas structure and squeeze concerns boosted the price. It finally closed at 22380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2738 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. In the spot market, due to the off - season and rising zinc prices, downstream purchasing was weak, and the spot premium declined significantly [6][7] 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.23 dollars/dry ton to 66.48 dollars/dry ton. The Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate in Q2 2025, and the annual zinc production guidance remains unchanged at 180,000 - 240,000 metal tons [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the spot premium, LME premium, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro uncertainties are strong, and short - term macro impacts may still fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable while consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are not abundant, and the continuous accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere in the short - term remains, and future inventory changes should be monitored [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME Aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2597.5 to 2602 yuan/ton; SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three rose from 20490 to 20525 dollars/ton; LME Aluminum inventory increased by 36350 tons to 400275 tons; SHFE Aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 13495 tons to 51980 tons; spot average price decreased by 102 yuan/ton to 20698 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 139.4 yuan/ton to 4111.18 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average spot price was 20698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week. Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. On July 10, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.8 tons to 46.6 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.65 tons to 16 tons [4][5] Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, macro uncertainties are high, and short - term macro impacts may fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable and consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are scarce, and the continuous accumulation of inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere remains, and inventory changes should be monitored [6] Industry News - Yunnan held a meeting on the green aluminum industry, and the Wenshan Zhilv project was put into operation; Canada may provide financial support to large aluminum producers if the 50% US aluminum import tariff persists; Baotou Aluminum's 200,000 - ton project had a successful hot - load test [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three price trends, LME Aluminum premium, etc., to show the market situation of the aluminum industry [8][9][12]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas tariff disturbances have resurfaced, but the impact is controllable. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Primary and secondary lead smelters are resuming production, but the supply recovery is slow. Meanwhile, demand is entering the peak season, and some battery companies are stocking up as usual, with the enterprise operating rate continuously improving month - on - month. Short - term inventory increases suppress the enthusiasm of long - position funds. The expectation of improved demand and rigid cost support the lead price. The contradiction between long and short positions is limited, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and wait for the effective realization of the peak season [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From July 4th to July 11th, the SHFE lead price decreased from 17,295 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a drop of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price decreased from 2,057 dollars/ton to 2,017 dollars/ton, a drop of 40 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.41 to 8.47, an increase of 0.06. The SHFE inventory increased from 53,303 tons to 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 263,275 tons to 249,375 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons. The social inventory increased from 5.79 million tons to 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 195 yuan/ton to - 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated within a narrow range, with the final closing price at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. The LME lead price fluctuated horizontally around 2,050 dollars/ton, with the final closing price at 2,017 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%. In the spot market, there were still differences in the shipment of electrolytic lead smelters. Some enterprises increased the discount for shipment, while others had firm quotes. The recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some raised prices for shipment. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices and preferred to purchase the ex - factory goods of electrolytic lead smelters, with part of the demand diverted to recycled lead, while the warehouse goods transactions remained sluggish. As of July 11th, the LME weekly inventory was 249,375 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,900 tons; the SHFE inventory was 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons compared with last week. As of July 10th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons compared with Monday and an increase of 0.32 million tons compared with last Thursday [5][6]. 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, both remaining unchanged. Near the shipping period of the US REDDOG lead mine, the previously undecided additional tariff negotiation will eventually end with both the buyer and the seller bearing half each, and the lead will enter the domestic market in late Q3 [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead ingot premiums, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, the price of waste batteries, the profit situation of recycled lead enterprises, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak as recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, this weak demand trend is likely to continue. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [1][4][6]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3610 tons to 337,800 tons [1][5][6]. - Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and expectations rising, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures were strong last week, and the macro - sentiment improved. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 748 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 635 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 113 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, the iron ore demand is expected to remain weak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 1.20 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 22.94 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.65 million tons, a decrease of 4.173 million tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 14.537 million tons, a decrease of 3.231 million tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.61 tons to 337,800 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development recently stated during a research trip to Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces that it will take multiple measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and resolve risks, and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [11]. - On July 7th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period, postponing the implementation time from July 9th to August 1st [11]. - On July 9th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, relevant officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China's GDP in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan. In the next step, China will adhere to the principle of moderate advancement without excessive advancement, continuously strengthen the foundation, leverage advantages, address weaknesses, and enhance capabilities, and promote the modern infrastructure system to reach a higher level [11]. - The General Office of the State Council recently issued a notice on further strengthening policy support for stable employment, proposing policy measures from seven aspects to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote high - quality economic development [11]. - US President Trump issued letters to Mexico and the EU, announcing that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipments of iron ore, steel products, etc., such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends of these products, steel mill profits, and iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil [10][12][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 40.75 to close at 1007.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 3.89%. The September soybean meal contract rose 22 to close at 2976 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.74%. The South China soybean meal spot price closed at 2820 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The September rapeseed meal contract rose 36 to close at 2633 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2510 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.8% [4]. - The U.S. soybean market was volatile and declined last week. On one hand, the hydrothermal conditions in the production areas were suitable, and the crop growth was good. On the other hand, the U.S. unilaterally issued a tax - levy letter, reigniting trade concerns. In addition, the export sales pace of new U.S. soybean crops was slow. The July USDA report lowered the export demand for new crops, and the inventory increased slightly to 310 million bushels, which was slightly bearish. In China, the spot supply was sufficient, and the price was generally stable. The sentiment in the commodity market improved, and there was an expectation of tight supply in the distant future, so the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up [4]. - The progress of the U.S. tariff and trade policy is slow, and the difficulty of reaching an agreement has increased. Market concerns may weaken the U.S. agricultural product export market. The July USDA report is generally slightly bearish, with the export demand for new crops lowered and the ending inventory slightly increased to 310 million bushels. The weather in the production areas will be good in the next two weeks, which is conducive to crop growth. The U.S. soybean may fluctuate widely. In China, there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in the near term, the soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the spot price is stable. Under the expectation of China's anti - involution policy, the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. The soybean procurement pace in the fourth quarter is slow. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1007.50 | 1048.25 | - 40.75 | - 3.89% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 465.00 | 2.00 | 0.43% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 452.00 | 448.00 | 4.00 | 0.89% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 32.57 | - 98.05 | 65.48 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2976.00 | 2954.00 | 22.00 | 0.74% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2633.00 | 2597.00 | 36.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 343.00 | 357.00 | - 14.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2830.00 | 2820.00 | 10.00 | 0.35% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2820.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 156.00 | - 134.00 | - 22.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybean market fell last week due to suitable hydrothermal conditions in the production areas, reignited trade concerns, slow export sales of new crops, and a slightly bearish USDA report. In China, the soybean meal market was stable in the short term with sufficient supply, and the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up due to improved market sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the future [4][7]. - The July USDA report shows that for the 2024/2025 season, the U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 15 million bushels to 1.865 billion bushels, the residual balance was slightly lowered, and the ending inventory remained unchanged at 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 season, the planting area was 83.4 million acres, 0.1 million acres less than the June report. The yield per acre remained at 52.5 bushels. The crushing demand was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, the export demand was lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 310 million bushels, an increase of 15 million bushels compared with the June report. The adjustment in South America was limited and in line with expectations. The report is generally slightly bearish [8]. - As of the week of July 6, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, in line with market expectations. The emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. As of the week of July 8, about 9% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas will be higher than normal and the temperature will be lower than the average in the next 15 days [8][9]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 503,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.439 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.4%. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 248,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1.837 million tons [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel [10]. - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, compared with 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. According to the official shipping schedule of Brazilian ports, the expected export volume in July is 11.929 million tons, a significant increase compared with 9.579 million tons in the same period last year. The export volume in June was 13.931 million tons, and it is expected to remain at a high level in August but with a more moderate increase [10]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.364 million tons, 294,700 tons less than the previous week and 645,100 tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, 130,800 tons more than the previous week and 260,300 tons less than the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 6.127 million tons, 2.804 million tons more than the previous week and 79,000 tons less than the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.88 million tons, 208,000 tons less than the previous week and 824,200 tons more than the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 131,620 tons, including 95,820 tons of spot trading and 35,800 tons of forward trading. The average daily pick - up volume was 183,540 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2954 million tons. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.92 days [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Brazil exported 1.91795097 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July, with an average daily export volume of 479,487.74 tons, 2% less than the average daily export volume in July last year [13]. - Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in Rosario. This will be Argentina's first soybean meal export to China [13]. - As of the week of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%. The growth stages of rapeseed in Manitoba vary widely [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to remain at a high level in July and August. The estimated export volume in the first half of this year is 80.915 million tons, more than 75.709 million tons in the same period last year [14]. - The estimated total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso in the 2025/2026 season is 48.55 million tons, with an estimated output of 47.18 million tons and an initial inventory of 1.36 million tons. The total demand is estimated to be 47.61 million tons, and the ending inventory is 940,000 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous estimate. The estimated output is 7.29% less than that in the 2024/2025 season, mainly due to lower productivity. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.67% [14]. - Argentine farmers will prefer to plant corn over soybeans in the 2025/2026 season due to high soybean export tax rates, low prices, and low profit margins [15]. - As of June 30, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.84 million tons, compared with 3.49 million tons last year. The soybean imports were 14.52 million tons, compared with 13.2 million tons last year. The soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, compared with 15.28 million tons last year. The rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons, compared with 5.68 million tons last year [15]. - As of the week of July 2, Argentine farmers sold 2.1634 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 25.5779 million tons. They also sold 140,700 tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 405,100 tons [15]. - The estimated rapeseed output of the EU 27 + UK in the 2025/2026 season is 20.3 million tons, with an estimated range between 19.3 million tons and 21.3 million tons [16]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, RMB exchange rates, soybean crushing margins in different regions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data charts [17][18][21][24][26][28].