1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the weak US economic and employment data lead to unclear demand and interest - rate cut expectations. There are also fiscal concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds, which will intensify macro - market volatility [2][7]. - Fundamentally, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has certain resilience. With production based on sales, consumption remains stable, and there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand for the time being [2][7]. - Given the macro - uncertainty and stable fundamentals, the aluminum price is expected to continue to show a range - bound performance [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price decreased from 2466 yuan/ton on May 23, 2025, to 2448.5 yuan/ton on May 30, 2025, a drop of 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 20055 dollars/ton to 19925 dollars/ton, a decline of 130 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14375 tons to 372525 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 6603 tons to 51819 tons [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 316.6 yuan/ton to 16987.23 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit decreased by 300.6 yuan/ton to 3326.77 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - market is affected by Trump's uncertain tariff policy, weak US economic and employment data, and fiscal concerns about US Treasury bonds. The fundamentals show stable supply and resilient consumption, and the aluminum price is expected to range - bound [7]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the casting aluminum alloy futures would be launched on June 10, 2025 [8]. - On May 14, 2025, the environmental impact report of the second - phase 400,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Power Co., Ltd. was approved [8]. 3.5 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical - trade seasonal spot premium, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes [9][10][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [3][6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [3][6]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [3][8]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 771.80 | -5.50 | -0.71 | 181,246 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 768.02 | -0.87 | -0.11 | 47,430 | 205,424 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3313.10 | -44.60 | -1.33 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8218 | -62 | -0.75 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 8192 | -19 | -0.23 | 379,350 | 3,425,600 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.08 | -0.56 | -1.68 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [6]. - On May 30, Trump announced raising the tariff on imported steel from 25% to 50%. On May 31, the European Commission expressed regret over the US's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and stated that the EU was prepared to take countermeasures. If a mutually acceptable solution cannot be reached, the EU's existing and additional measures will automatically take effect on July 14 or earlier if necessary. The first meeting between the leaders of the US and Germany on June 5 may lead to Germany being "ambushed." The escalation of the trade dispute between the US and Germany may impact European exporters, especially in the automotive and machinery manufacturing industries, and also affect the business layout of US technology companies in Europe [7]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - The minutes of the Fed's meeting from May 6 - 7 showed that Fed policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty facing the economy was higher than before. They were cautious about interest rate cuts and preferred to wait for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer before taking action. Moreover, almost all policymakers expressed concerns about the long-term inflationary impact of tariffs, which weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. The Russian delegation was satisfied with the results of the second - round negotiations and submitted a peace memorandum to Ukraine. Ukraine demanded an unconditional ceasefire in the airspace, sea area, and on land for at least 30 days. There is a possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries in Istanbul, but it is too early to discuss the meeting time. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [8][9]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [9]. - This week, key data to watch include the US May non - farm payrolls data, ADP data, May ISM non - manufacturing index, and the eurozone April PPI data. In terms of events, pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech and the eurozone central bank's interest rate decision [9]. 3. Important Data Information - The US April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%, the smallest increase in more than four years. The "super core inflation indicator" - the core service cost excluding housing and energy - also fell to a four - year low and had its first month - on - month decline since April 2020. It is expected that as the impact of tariffs becomes apparent, the growth rate of commodity prices will accelerate in May, especially in June [10]. - The revised value of the US first - quarter GDP shrank 0.2% on an annualized basis, slightly better than the previously announced initial value of a 0.3% contraction, but still indicating that the US economy contracted at the beginning of the year. The growth rate of consumer spending was significantly revised down, reaching the weakest growth rate in nearly two years. Corporate profits plunged 2.9%, the largest decline since 2020. The core PCE was slightly revised down to 3.4% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week surged by 14,000 to 240,000, reaching the highest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week increased by 26,000 to 1.919 million, also hitting the highest level since November 2021 [10]. - The US April durable goods orders plunged 6.3% month - on - month, and the core capital goods orders had the largest decline since October last year [10]. - French inflation unexpectedly fell to a five - year low, and the probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in June soared [10]. - In April, the US commodity import volume decreased to $276.097 billion, a month - on - month plunge of 19.8%, the largest decline on record. This led to a narrowing of the trade deficit to $87.6 billion, far lower than the market expectation of $143 billion [11]. - Data showed that in April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US rose to 111.7 tons, the highest monthly level since at least 2012 [11]. - On May 30, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government published the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in the Gazette, meaning that the ordinance has officially become law, further improving Hong Kong's digital asset activity regulatory framework [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - **Table 2: Changes in Precious Metal ETF Holdings (in tons)** | ETF | Gold Total Holdings | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/23 | 2025/5/16 | 2024/5/9 | Change from Last Week | Change from Last Month | Change from Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | - | 930.20 | 922.46 | 944.26 | 832.21 | 7.74 | -14.06 | 97.99 | | Ishares | Silver Holdings | 14303.75 | 14217.50 | 14015.31 | 12869.86 | 86.25 | 288.44 | 1433.89 | [12][13] - **Table 3: Changes in CFTC Non - commercial Positions** | Gold Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 234087 | 59903 | 174184 | 10203 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 238062 | 74081 | 163981 | 2772 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 238191 | 76982 | 161209 | -1288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 237445 | 74948 | 162497 | - | | Silver Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 73240 | 20228 | 53012 | 2970 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 70891 | 20849 | 50042 | 2288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 67944 | 20190 | 47754 | -1498 | | 2025 - 04 - 29 | 70335 | 21083 | 49252 | - | [14] - There are also multiple data charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, price differences, and ratios of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and various economic indicators such as the US inflation rate, dollar index, and Fed's balance sheet size [15 - 41].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 成本支撑与复产博弈 氧化铝震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端几内亚矿业和地质部长在国家电视台上公开 宣布将撤销几内亚129家矿业公司的勘探许可证， 其中涉及7个铝土矿项目，本次撤销暂时对在采矿 山没有直接影响，不过几内亚雨季临近，矿石供应 或有季节性减少。供应端当前开工产能较上周并 未明显增量，但随着氧化铝价格上涨利润增加，企 业生 ...

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 6 月 3 日 缺乏提涨驱动 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 锂价弱势震荡运行 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：锂价屡创新低，上游锂盐厂停减产信息频出， 高频周产数据连续下滑。下游悲观预期较浓，现货端始终 维持刚需采买，企业节前备库强度有限。产量收缩背景下， 库存端整体仍处于高位。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，百川口径下的锂辉石及锂云母价格 均有不同幅度的下跌。 ⚫ 盘面上，主力合约 ...

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic expectations are somewhat divided. The US manufacturing PMI has a revision expectation, but the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment expectation is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost support logic still exists, and the price may be corrected as the rumor about the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines is unconfirmed, but macro - disturbances need to be watched out for [3][11]. - On the fundamental side, last week, the rumor that the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines might be increased to 3.2 billion tons hit the previous strong cost - support expectation, and the nickel price hit a new low. After the rumor was unconfirmed, the main contract significantly reduced positions, pushing up the price. The supply of Indonesian laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the spot premium stays at a high level. The demand side has no incremental expectation, and the supply may remain high driven by export profits [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121100 | 122780 | - 1680 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15237 | 15594 | - 357 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 199380 | 198636 | 744 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22057 | 22250 | - 193 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Ore The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remains at $48.5 per wet ton, and that in Indonesia remains at $40.8 per wet ton. The rumor of increasing the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines has not been confirmed, and the short - term cost - support logic still applies [6]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 952 yuan per nickel point to 955 yuan per nickel point. In May, the expected output of Chinese ferronickel was about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The import volume of domestic ferronickel in April was about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The expected output of Indonesian ferronickel in May was 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of +16.9%/-0.47%. Domestic steel enterprises have production - control expectations, and stainless - steel production may be suppressed. In addition, some stainless - steel plants and ferronickel plants in Indonesia are expected to reduce production, and the traditional consumption area may be sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,015 yuan per ton to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan per ton. In May, the expected output of nickel sulfate in terms of metal was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of -20.51%/0.39%. In June, the output of ternary materials is expected to increase month - on - month, about 64,600 tons in total, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of +30.95%/+1.36%. The consumption increment in the new - energy field is not clear, and it is difficult to have an obvious driving force for price increase [8]. 3.2.4 Macro - level Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but was later postponed. The market generally believes that Trump's tariff policy will still show the characteristic of "starting high and ending low". The US core PCE in April was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure has eased, which may boost the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [3][9]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - level - Supply side: In May, domestic production capacity was stable, and smelter production scheduling declined. The expected output of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons. The export scale of domestic electrolytic nickel in April was about 17,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150.3%. As of May 30, the export profit of Chinese nickel was $53.99 per ton. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has a strong willingness to buy at low prices [9]. - Terminal consumption: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 53.5%. The consumption increment of new - energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to heavy - duty trucks and electric boats [10]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,057 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 193 tons, and the LME inventory is 199,380 tons, a month - on - month increase of 744 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 221,437 tons, a month - on - month increase of 551 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The 2.5 - billion - yuan lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou Dalong is expected to start trial production this year, with an estimated annual output value of 10 billion yuan after full operation [12]. - Guangxi Jinchuan Company has developed a new method for producing nickel sulfate [12]. - Trump postponed the decision on imposing a 50% tariff on the EU [12]. - The US International Trade Court initially blocked Trump's tariff measures, but the decision was postponed [12]. 3.4 Later Outlook The macro - economic expectations are divided, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost - support logic still exists. Since the rumor about the approval quota is unconfirmed, the price may have a small - scale rebound, but macro - disturbances need to be vigilant [11].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250530 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税暂时恢复，六月市场风险将加剧 海外方面，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，要求政府于 6 月 9 日前回 应；白宫官员对诉讼前景信心十足，即便败诉亦有替代路径，并称关税谈判同步推进中；特 朗普上任后首次会晤鲍威尔，施压降息未果，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。美国一季度 GDP 增 速小幅上修至-0.2%，而初请失业金人数显示就业市场有所走弱。美国 Q2 经济基本面韧劲 尚在，但六月市场波动将加剧，聚焦关税的外部谈判与内部法律博弈、美债可持续性引发的 财政担忧，以及特朗普减税法案在参议院的推进。 国内方面，在美国贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税下，国内风险资产反弹，北证 50、科创板 块、小微盘涨幅超 2%，软件、生物科技板块领涨，两市成交额回升至 1.2 万亿，而债市承 压回调，10Y、30Y 国债利率升至 1.68%、1.93%。短期内国内经济基本面延续平稳，边际变 化不大，市场关注重心仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Federal Court's block of Trump's tariff policy has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a "full - scale trade war," leading to a significant repair of market risk appetite. However, Trump may still restart protectionist policies, so policy risks need to be monitored [2]. - The domestic economy continues to show the characteristic of "volume up, price down" after the weakening of the policy pulse effect at the beginning of the year. Although export pressure has eased, domestic demand repair is weak, and the next policy observation window will be at the end of July [2]. - Various commodities have different trends. Precious metals are under pressure due to the decline in risk - aversion demand; copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate; zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly; lead prices have limited downward space; tin prices may be weakly adjusted; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices may correct the price difference; nickel prices are weakly adjusted; crude oil prices oscillate; steel and iron ore prices are weakly adjusted; and agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil also show different trends [3][6][8][12][13][14][16][18][21][22][23][24][25][26] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.04%; LME copper closed at 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars or 0.31% [27]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.27%; LME aluminum closed at 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars or 0.72% [27]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 0.89% [27]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%; LME zinc closed at 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars or 0.74% [27]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.71%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar or 0.03% [27]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan or 1.93%; LME nickel closed at 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars or 1.85% [27]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,690 yuan or 2.91%; LME tin closed at 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars or 2.82% [27]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,312.40 dollars/ounce, up 12.70 dollars or 0.38%; SHFE silver closed at 8,225.00 yuan/kg, up 8.00 yuan or 0.10%; COMEX silver closed at 33.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.29 dollars or 0.87% [27]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.54%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% [27]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 28, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons to 154,300 tons [28]. - **Nickel**: On May 28, SHFE nickel's main contract was 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars. LME inventory increased by 864 tons to 200,862 tons [28]. - **Zinc**: On May 28, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME zinc was 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons [31]. - **Lead**: On May 28, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME lead was 1,989 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons to 291,050 tons [31]. - **Aluminum**: On May 28, SHFE aluminum's continuous - three contract was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 377,325 tons [31]. - **Alumina**: On May 28, SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,289 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [31]. - **Tin**: On May 28, SHFE tin's main contract was 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,790 yuan from the previous day; LME tin was 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars. LME inventory increased by 20 tons to 2,680 tons [31]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices were mostly unchanged on May 28. COMEX gold's inventory remained unchanged at 38,814,647 ounces, and COMEX silver's inventory increased by 1,070,427 ounces to 498,373,208 ounces [31][33]. - **Steel Products and Iron Ore**: Rebar's main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; iron ore's main contract was 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Other related prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [33]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's main contract was 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan from the previous day; coking coal's main contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan [33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 28, lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.05 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.3 yuan, down 0.08 yuan [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 28, industrial silicon's main contract was 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the average price of 421 silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On May 28, CBOT soybean's main contract was 1048.5 yuan/ton, down 13.25 yuan from the previous day; the main contract of soybean meal was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [33][35].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面，美国"软数据"近期显著回暖，美国 5 月谘商会消费者信心指数大超预期回 升至 98，摆脱近五年低点，得益于特朗普政府缓和关税威胁后，民众对经济与就业前景的 看法改善；美国 5 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数同样超预期改善。特朗普称对欧盟征收 50% 关税"非常满意"，欧盟呼吁尽快启动谈判；白宫称对部分提供良好条件的国家，关税或将 降至 10%或更低。市场风险偏好得到提振，美股强势反弹，美元指数回升至 99.5，10Y 美债 利率收于 4.45%，金价、铜价、油价均收跌。 国内方面，1-4 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 1.4%，较前值 0.8%加快，显示工业 利润稳步修复，目前外部不确定性仍高，内需偏弱、价格下行等因素仍制约企业效益恢复， 基础仍需巩固。A 股震荡分化，两市成交额回落至 1.02 万亿，北证 50、小微盘股抗跌，行 业上办公用品、软饮料、化肥农药板块领涨。在资金面偏松、股市走低利好下，债市依旧偏 弱，市场猜测银行卖债调整"OCI 账户"为主要抛压。 贵金属：避险情绪回落，金价走势承压 周二国际贵金属期货双双收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upstream lithium salt supply continues to shrink, but the overall scale is small, and port resources are still abundant, so there is no immediate concern on the supply side. The market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, but the actual implementation is uncertain, and the market has not fully priced in the incremental demand expectations. The spot market remains sluggish, with poor downstream stocking willingness and only meeting rigid procurement needs [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber both declined to varying degrees [4]. - On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to severely rectify vicious involution and achieve healthy industrial competition. On May 21, affected by price declines, there were reports of production suspension and maintenance at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. Additionally, the market was worried about the impact of environmental protection incidents in Jiangxi on supply. Under these events, lithium prices rebounded after hitting a low on May 20 due to a large number of short - position profit - taking. However, as concerns eased, most of the previous gains were reversed on Friday [4]. - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), battery - grade lithium carbonate spot, industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot, lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained), lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary material (811), and ternary material (622) all declined to varying degrees, with the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropping by 100%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.35% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,773 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 318,500 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 15,048 tons, a decrease of 805 tons from the previous period. Affected by weak prices, there were reports of production cuts at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. A smelter under Zhongkuang will start a 4 - month production suspension and maintenance in June, affecting a monthly output of about 1,500 tons. Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that the 40,000 - ton salt lake lithium project put into production this year may achieve an actual output of 3,000 tons within the year, and it is likely to be put into production in the fourth quarter. Overall, although there are more definite production suspension information, the scale is limited. Supported by high imports and abundant lithium ore, there is no immediate concern on the supply side [8]. - In terms of imports, in April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import volume from Chile was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%. The import volume from Argentina was 6,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. Chile's lithium carbonate export volume in April was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. The export volume to China was 15,500 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. The scale of lithium carbonate exported to China has weakened, which may drag down the import volume in May. The scale of lithium salt imported from Argentina has increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it currently has no continuous reference value. In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The incremental volume mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Although the shipping of lithium ore from a mining company in Mali, Africa, was blocked, the overall shipping scale of African lithium ore is still on the rise [9][10]. - On the demand side, in the downstream cathode materials sector, as of May 23, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,275 tons, with an operating rate of 57.3%, unchanged from the previous period, and inventory decreased by 587 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,820 tons, with an operating rate of 46.19%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory increased by 90 tons. The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate also decreased. The market expects a slight expansion of cathode plant production scheduling in June, but the terminal consumption is about to enter the off - season, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation can be realized [11]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, from May 1 - 18, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 484,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 52%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 3.808 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales of new energy vehicles showed a weakening trend in early May, and the year - on - year sales growth rate decreased from 37% in April to 32%. Although the International Energy Agency predicts that new energy vehicle consumption is expected to exceed 20 million units this year, accounting for about 25% of the total new car sales, with high hopes for China's consumption growth, the purchasing power of Chinese residents may be lower than expected. With the arrival of the consumption off - season in the third quarter and the base effect of last year's replacement policy, the future consumption growth rate is not optimistic [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 23, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,391 tons, an increase of about 318 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons, and market inventory increased by 560 tons. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate despite the further contraction of supply, and the scale of resource transfer from upstream to downstream was limited [14]. This Week's Outlook - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [15]. Industry News - On May 22, Rio Tinto was confirmed as the preferred partner for the Salares Altoandinos lithium project in northern Chile by the Chilean National Mining Company (ENAMI). Rio Tinto will acquire an initial 51% stake in the project, and the Chilean National Mining Company will hold the remaining stake. Rio Tinto will provide about $425 million in cash and non - cash contributions, including its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology [16]. - On May 20, Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that its new 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, and the company will strive to further increase production [16]. - On May 21, the Zhangye Municipal People's Government promoted the investment attraction of a metal lithium project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone. The project is expected to invest 560 million yuan, and the estimated annual output value after completion is 300 million yuan. The project is currently in the planning and preparation stage [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [18][20][23][27][29]