投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250618 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：海外聚焦今晚 FOMC，国内债市博弈央行购债 海外方面，美国 5 月零售销售环比录得-0.9%，弱于预期并创下两年最大跌幅，主要汽 车、加油站、杂货和建材类拖累，表明此前关税预期引发的提前消费热潮消退，关注薪资对 消费的支撑力度。以伊战争进入第五天，特朗普敦促伊朗"无条件投降"、警告美国"耐心 将尽"，市场风险偏好遭受打击，美股下挫，美元指数回升至 98.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.37%，金价窄幅波动走平，油价涨超 4%，铜价小幅收跌。GDPNow 最新预测显示，美国 二季度 GDP 环比折年率或达 3.5%，显示经济在关税扰动下仍具韧性，关注今晚 FOMC 会 议的经济预测摘要（SEP）及利率点阵图。 国内方面，A 股震荡收低，两市成交额维持在 1.2 万亿上，红利风格相对抗跌，科创 50、 微盘股、北证 50 跌幅较大，稳定币、能源、海运等板块领涨，在内生修复动能偏弱、短期 宽松政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT US soybean July contract rose 10.5 to close at 1068.5 cents per bushel, up 0.99%; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 31 to close at 3041 yuan per ton, up 1.03%; the South China soybean meal spot rose 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, up 2.13%; the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 66 to close at 2674 yuan per ton, up 2.53%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 80 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, up 3.23% [2][5]. - The US soybean fluctuated and declined during the week and then closed sharply higher. The USDA report did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet. The soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged. The precipitation forecast in the Midwest increased, the weather in the production areas was good, and the US soybean export sales were lower than expected, causing the US soybean to decline. On Friday, the US Environmental Protection Agency proposed to increase the future biodiesel usage, and the US soybean oil hit the daily limit, driving the US soybean to rise sharply. The China - US economic and trade consultation meeting ended, and the optimistic trade sentiment boosted. Long - positions continued to increase, but the upward momentum weakened. There is an expected supply shortage of US soybeans in the domestic fourth quarter, which supports the prices [2][5]. - The precipitation forecast in the US soybean production areas increases and is higher than the average level, which is beneficial to the early growth and development of soybeans, and the weather is normal. China and the US have reached a framework agreement, waiting for details. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expected supply shortage. The US biodiesel policy exceeds expectations and proposes to restrict imports, and the US soybean oil hitting the daily limit supports the sharp rise of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to rise, and the spot supply is still available. With the expected supply shortage in the far - month, the downward support for the Dalian soybean meal is strong. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and strengthen [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 6/13 | 6/6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1068.50 | 1058.00 | 10.50 | 0.99% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 454.00 | 447.00 | 7.00 | 1.57% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 453.00 | 457.00 | - 4.00 | - 0.88% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Disk | 129.38 | 81.46 | 47.93 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3041.00 | 3010.00 | 31.00 | 1.03% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2674.00 | 2608.00 | 66.00 | 2.53% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 367.00 | 402.00 | - 35.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2860.00 | 2840.00 | 20.00 | 0.70% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2880.00 | 2820.00 | 60.00 | 2.13% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 161.00 | - 190.00 | 29.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The USDA report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 295 million bushels, the same as the May expectation. The soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remains at 49 million tons, and that in Brazil remains at 169 million tons. The report is overall neutral [6]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, up from 67% the previous week and lower than 72% in the same period last year. The planting progress was 90%, lower than the expected 91%, up from 84% the previous week and higher than 86% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 88%. The emergence rate was 75%, up from 63% the previous week, higher than 68% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of the week ending June 10, 2025, about 13% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and higher than 1% in the same period last year [6]. - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, higher than the market forecast of 155,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 45.19 million tons, compared with 40.54 million tons in the same period of the previous crop year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 61,000 tons, compared with 194,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season is 48.71 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.8%, compared with 94.6% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season is 1.118 million tons, compared with 1.04 million tons in the same period last year. China did not purchase old - season or new - season US soybeans in the current week, and the cumulative purchase volume of US soybeans by China in the 2024/2025 season remains at 22.48 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing was 1.49 US dollars per bushel, down from 1.9 US dollars per bushel the previous week. The FOB price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 46.23 cents per pound, down from 47.97 cents per pound the previous week. The wholesale price of 48% soybean meal in central Illinois was 290.85 US dollars per short ton, up from 290.15 US dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.73 US dollars per bushel, up from 10.51 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that the Brazilian soybean export volume in June will reach 14.08 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 12.55 million tons, compared with 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The sales progress of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season in Mato Grosso state is 76.02%, compared with 77.9% in the same period last year. The sales progress of the 2025/2026 season soybean crop is 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year [8]. - According to the report of the Buenos Aires Exchange, as of the week ending June 11, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, up from 88.7% the previous week and lower than 96% in the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week and 1.2088 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 507,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 5.4305 million tons, an increase of 1.7376 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 10 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, an increase of 408,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0591 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 347,700 tons, including 90,620 tons of spot trading and 257,100 tons of forward trading, compared with 119,400 tons the previous week. The daily average picking - up volume of soybean meal was 194,760 tons, down from 201,200 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, up from 2.2446 million tons the previous week. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 6.83 days, up from 6.31 days the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season will be 48.5 million tons. As of the end of May, the soybean harvest rate was 80.7%, and the early - sown soybean harvest was 86% complete. Due to recent precipitation, the soybean harvest in the northern part of Buenos Aires was the slowest. The estimated soybean yield is 3,090 kg per hectare (46.0 bushels per acre), with a yield range of 1,200 - 3,740 kg per hectare (17.8 - 55.7 bushels per acre) [11]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintains the forecast of Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season at 169.7 million tons, the soybean export volume at 108.2 million tons, the soybean oil production at 11.45 million tons, the soybean crushing volume at 57.5 million tons, the soybean oil export volume at 1.4 million tons, the soybean meal production at 44.1 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume at 23.6 million tons [11]. - The sales rate of the 2025/26 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of about 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year. The report estimates that the soybean production in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season may reach 47.18 million tons. The sales rate of the 2024/25 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 76%, lower than 77.90% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.39% [12]. - Affected by recent favorable rainfall, the estimated rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 20.4 million tons, but the drought risk in Poland still exists. According to the short - term weather forecast, different weather patterns will appear in the next 10 days. Eastern and central Europe will face colder temperatures, while western/southern Europe will remain warm. Rainfall is expected only in Spain and the UK, and the rest of the countries are expected to return to a dry weather pattern, increasing drought concerns [12]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Commodity Supply Company estimates that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8845 million tons (14.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.264 million tons (0.8%). The sown area is expected to reach 47.6198 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4702 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 7,100 hectares. The estimated soybean yield is 3.56 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 360.7 kg per hectare (11.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 26 kg per hectare (0.7%) [13]. - A consulting agency estimates that the rapeseed production in Canada in the 2025/26 season will be 18.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, almost the same as the previous estimate of 18 million tons (17.2 - 18.9 million tons). In the past two weeks, the main rapeseed - producing areas in the southern prairies of Canada have observed a precipitation shortage of about 33 mm, and the temperature is higher than the average level. These conditions have raised concerns about the early soil moisture conditions of rapeseed. Looking forward, the weather forecast for the next 10 days shows that the southern prairie region of Canada will have mild temperatures, and moderate rainfall is expected in Saskatchewan and Alberta, which may help relieve the current drought and support crop growth. In Manitoba, the drought is expected to continue, with a possible precipitation shortage of 35 mm [14].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows that the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season have increased recently, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production. With the steel demand entering the off - season, the molten iron output is decreasing while the supply is strong [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2969 yuan/ton, a decline of 6 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.20%. The total trading volume was 8652225 lots, and the total open interest was 3086173 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a decline of 10 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 2922804 lots, and the total open interest was 1566756 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 704.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.5 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.49%. The total trading volume was 1262009 lots, and the total open interest was 716699 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 774.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.51%. The total trading volume was 6009851 lots, and the total open interest was 695773 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1349.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 158036 lots, and the total open interest was 56573 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a fluctuating trend. The molten iron output decreased slightly. The positive news from the Sino - US negotiations had limited boost to the market. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 719 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 613 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - grade PB powder and low - grade Super Special powder was 106 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season increased. The molten iron output continued to decline. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.66 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 2169.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 249.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1892.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 392.2 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 749.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 198.7 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.25 tons, a decrease of 13.81 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto Group and Baowu Resources was officially put into operation. The project can produce up to 25 million tons of iron ore per year, with a total production capacity of 130 million tons and an average iron grade of about 62% [9]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, exchanged in - depth views on economic and trade issues of concern, reached a principle consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [9]. - On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Air Force launched air strikes on dozens of targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities in Iran and named the operation "Lion's Strength". The Israeli military said that Iran had enough enriched uranium to manufacture multiple bombs within a few days, so action was needed to address this "imminent threat" [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes a series of charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects [8][10][12].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 美生柴政策提振 棕榈油或震荡走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 | 合约 | | 6 月 13 | 日 | 6 月 | 6 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 豆油主连 | | 51.19 | | 47.43 | | 3.76 | 7.93% | 美分/磅 | | BMD 马棕油主连 | | 3927 | | 3917 | | 10 | 0.26% | 林 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The macro - environment is unstable due to uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's policy inclination. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2451.5 yuan/ton to 2503 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.5 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous third contract rose from 19915 dollars/ton to 20060 dollars/ton, an increase of 145 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.1 to 8.0; LME spot premium increased from - 4.91 dollars/ton to - 0.42 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton; LME aluminum inventory decreased from 363850 tons to 353225 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47792 tons to 46193 tons; spot Yangtze River average price rose from 20217.5 yuan/ton to 20422 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.5 yuan/ton; spot premium decreased from 80 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; South Reserve spot average price rose from 20080 yuan/ton to 20262 yuan/ton, an increase of 182 yuan/ton; Shanghai - Guangdong aluminum price difference increased from 137.5 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 50.4 tons to 46 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons; electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16980.03 yuan/ton to 16965.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased from 3237.47 yuan/ton to 3456.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.2 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Macro: US May CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of cooling inflation pressure, and the market increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to fall rapidly. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, easing trade tensions and boosting market risk appetite. China's May CPI and PPI data showed different trends. The total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first five months increased by 2.5% year - on - year. - Consumption: The weekly aluminum downstream processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 60.9%. During the off - peak season transition, the start - up rates of some sectors declined, with aluminum cables and industrial profiles performing well, and the aluminum plate, strip and foil sector entering the off - peak season more obviously. It is expected that the weekly start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points next week. - Inventory: As of June 12, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with Monday; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas decreased to 127,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with Monday [5][6][7]. Market Outlook The macro - environment is unstable. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. Industry News - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister discussed the project prospect of building a vertically integrated industrial park in Kazakhstan with the founder of Orient Hope Group. The first - phase project plans to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 2 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with an annual output of 1 million tons. - The 2025 industrial energy - saving supervision tasks for 2797 enterprises were determined, including energy - efficiency special supervision for key industries such as electrolytic aluminum. - In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 547,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9]. Related Charts The report provides 10 related charts, including price trends, ratios, premiums, spreads, and inventory seasonal changes of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum [10][11][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show supply increase and demand stability, with no significant improvement. The price increase provides hedging opportunities for the upstream, driving smelters to increase production. The cost of lithium spodumene and lithium mica has slightly increased. The lithium price was strong during the week due to macro - sentiment and market rumors, but was restricted by fundamentals and declined at the end of the week. The spot is expected to improve marginally, which may support the futures market. The government may strengthen management of car price competition, and new energy vehicle sales have accelerated in June. However, the market inventory has increased since late May, and the improvement in terminal consumption may lag in driving demand. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the lithium price decline is expected to be limited [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) remained unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36%, while the industrial - grade increased by 2.22%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 3.58%. The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.64%, and the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide remained unchanged. The prices of ternary materials 811 and 622 decreased by 0.34% and 0.39% respectively [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of June 13, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 32,118 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,420 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 147,400 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of June 13, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 17,018 tons, an increase of 1,005 tons from the previous period. The price increase provided good hedging opportunities for salt factories, and production may remain stable. In mid - June, Zhongkuang's 40,000 - ton salt - lake production capacity will enter the market, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt may increase [8]. - **Import**: In April, the lithium carbonate import volume was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import from Chile was 20,200 tons, and from Argentina was 6,850 tons. The export of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The import of lithium ore in April was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, and the import from Nigeria also increased. Although the shipment of some African mines was hindered, the overall shipment of African lithium mines was on the rise [9][10]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of June 13, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,938 tons, with an operating rate of 59.99% (an increase of 0.06 percentage points), and the inventory increased by 513 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 15,085 tons, with an operating rate of 47.95% (an increase of 0.14 percentage points), and the inventory decreased by 200 tons. The prices of ternary materials slightly declined, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. In the short term, downstream replenishment may be limited, but terminal consumption improvement may drive raw material inventory depletion [11]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 202,000, a year - on - year increase of 40% and a month - on - month increase of 4%. The retail penetration rate was 58.8%. The government's policy to regulate "involution - style" competition may indicate that car prices have reached a bottom, which may stimulate consumers. As of May 31, there were 4.12 million subsidy applications for car replacement. The new regulation on payment to small and medium - sized enterprises may affect some car companies' cash flow [12]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 98,615 tons, an increase of about 3,400 tons. The factory inventory increased by about 800 tons, and the market inventory increased by about 2,600 tons. The exchange inventory was relatively stable, and the market inventory increased significantly, indicating some downstream replenishment. However, the upstream inventory also increased, showing supply elasticity [14]. This Week's Outlook - The spot is expected to improve marginally, which may support the futures market. The government's regulation of car price competition may stimulate new energy vehicle sales. Although the new energy vehicle sales have accelerated in June, the market inventory has increased since late May, and the improvement in terminal consumption may lag in driving demand. Supply may remain relatively stable due to hedging opportunities. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the lithium price decline is expected to be limited [15]. Industry News - **Shengxin Lithium Energy**: The Indonesian lithium salt project is expected to supply in bulk in the third quarter. The company is also involved in the metal lithium business for solid - state batteries and is promoting the construction of a 2,500 - ton metal lithium production capacity project [16]. - **Zimbabwe**: It will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027 to encourage local refining. Last year, it supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the produced lithium sulfate will still be shipped to China [16]. - **Tianci Materials**: Its Moroccan electrolyte project with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons has been finalized, with a total investment of about 2.03 billion yuan [17]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, supply structure, import volume, and the prices and production of related materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18][19][24][27][30][31].

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 中东紧张局势升级，金价再度走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周黄金价格震荡上行，COMEX期金主力合约再度站上 3450美元/盎司上方，最高至3468美元/盎司，创近两个月 新高。主要因为中东地缘局势恶化，以色列空袭伊朗，再 次引发市场对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧，资金纷纷 涌向避险资产。而白银价格则呈震荡偏弱走势，COMEX期 银主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a decline in macro - risk appetite. Fundamental support has increased, with a sequential decline in recycled lead supply due to environmental inspections and losses. However, consumption is in the transition phase between peak and off - peak seasons, showing no obvious recovery, and inventory has increased slightly, slowing down the upward momentum of lead prices. Supply - side contradictions support lead prices to fluctuate strongly, but significant improvement in consumption is needed to effectively open up the upside space. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,200 yuan/ton [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 1,992.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.50. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.08 million tons to 5.47 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price center of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 moved up, mainly boosted by the production cuts of recycled lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui due to environmental inspections. However, the increase was slowed down by the inventory increase, and it finally closed at 16,945 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.98%. The LME lead price maintained a sideways shock, closing at 1,992 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, by June 13th, the price of Chihong and Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16,930 - 16,980 yuan/ton, at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2507 contract. The ex - factory prices of electrolytic lead smelters were firm, and recycled lead smelters actively quoted for sales. Downstream enterprises were more cautious, with fewer inquiries and weaker spot market transactions [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of June 13th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, production of primary and recycled lead, social inventory of lead ingots, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation shows progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and proposed real - estate policy optimization in Guangzhou. The industrial data last week was poor, with both output and apparent demand declining. Hot - rolled coils have been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, affected by the slowdown in manufacturing steel use and weakening exports. The apparent demand for rebar has declined month - on - month, dragged down by the terminal real - estate and seasonal weakening of demand. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2969 | - 6 | - 0.20 | 8652225 | 3086173 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3082 | - 10 | - 0.32 | 2922804 | 1566756 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 704.0 | - 3.5 | - 0.49 | 1262009 | 716699 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 774.5 | - 4.0 | - 0.51 | 6009851 | 695773 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1349.5 | - 1.0 | - 0.07 | 158036 | 56573 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand and limited macro - support, resulting in a lack of upward momentum for steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2900 (0) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3080 (- 40) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3180 (- 20) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News 1. The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution" [6][7]. 2. The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, achieving new progress in resolving economic and trade concerns [1][4][10]. 3. On June 13, 2025, the Israel Defense Forces launched an air strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities [10]. 4. Guangzhou plans to optimize real - estate policies, cancel purchase and sales restrictions, reduce down - payment ratios and interest rates, and promote the renovation of old communities and villages [10]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [8][11][13][15][16][21][23][25][27][29][31][33][35][36][40].