1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are weak, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China. The export outlook is turning weaker, and domestic demand is poor, making it difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply. - In the short - term, the valuation has declined to a low level, but it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. The slowdown in inventory accumulation and the strong sentiment in the black market are supporting prices. - In the medium - term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be poor after the new device is put into production, and real estate demand continues to decline. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to be low, and the profit of ethylene - based production is running at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.6%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 74.4%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the ethylene method is 81.6%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The supply - side load decreased slightly last week due to maintenance at some companies. It is expected to rebound next week, and the overall load in October is expected to remain high, with multiple new devices expected to start trial production. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, which is expected to lead to a decline in exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week, with the overall downstream load rising by 1.3% to 49.9%. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 63.5 tons, up 8 tons week - on - week. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - plant inventory was 33.4 tons, down 2.7 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 103.5 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week; the overall inventory was 136.9 tons, down 2.5 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is gradually shifting from upstream to mid - stream. [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents various charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, prices, trading volume, and open interest of active contracts and total contracts from 2021 to 2025, but no specific analysis or summary is provided in the text. [15][16][18][26][28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The in - plant inventory and social inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of different types of inventories. [33][40] - **Profit**: The profit data of different production methods of PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, including the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration in Shandong. [41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have a slight rebound. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - Other cost - related factors such as the price of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 are also presented through charts. [47][48][50][54] 3.5. Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The historical trend of PVC capacity, the planned production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials required for production in different quarters are presented through charts and tables. - The operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts, showing the trends of production capacity utilization. [57][59][61][63][64][65][70] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The operating rates of PVC film, profiles, and pipes from 2021 to 2025 are presented through charts. - The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented through charts, reflecting the demand situation from different aspects. [73][77][82][85][87][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weather improvement has led to increased downstream agricultural purchases and a decline in supply, slowing down the inventory accumulation of enterprises. The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains, but the spot market has underperformed, resulting in a further weakening of the basis. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Currently, the high - inventory situation of enterprises remains unchanged, suppressing the performance of near - term spot prices, and there is still a lack of strong driving forces [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side has seen an increase in device maintenance, with the enterprise operating rate at 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. The daily production is 18.49 tons, lower than the same period last year. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural demand has increased, and the enterprise's advance orders have risen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, reaching 27.71%, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Overall, the domestic demand has improved [12]. - Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The strengthening of the futures market has led to a further weakening of the basis, and the 1 - 5 spread remains at a low level. The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued, indicating that the urea valuation is low [12]. - The enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons, and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons, indicating an accelerated departure of goods from the port [12]. - In the short term, the agricultural demand has improved, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has also increased, leading to an improvement in short - term supply and demand and a strengthening of the futures market. However, the spot market has been slow to follow the price increase, resulting in a weak basis. Currently, consumption still lacks positive factors, and the supply - side enterprise profits are at a low level. Given the low valuation and weak driving forces, the downward space for spot prices is relatively limited. The market is waiting for positive factors to emerge. In the future, as the weather improves, downstream enterprises will have a stronger willingness to stockpile fertilizers, and with the upcoming off - season storage, off - season storage merchants are expected to have a strong purchasing willingness at the current low price level, and there are still some positive factors waiting to be released in the market. In terms of strategy, due to the high inventory, the price volatility has decreased, and the downward space for prices is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains due to improved weather, increased downstream agricultural purchases, and a decline in supply. The spot market has underperformed, and the basis has further weakened. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side: Device maintenance has increased, with an operating rate of 78.03% and daily production of 18.49 tons. Demand side: Agricultural demand has increased, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded to 27.71% [12]. - **Valuation**: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons. Port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons [12]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term improvement in supply and demand has led to a strengthening of the futures market, but the spot market has been slow to follow, resulting in a weak basis [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of futures contracts 09, 01, and 05 have all increased compared to the previous week. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei has weakened. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine have remained stable, with some changes in profits [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The futures market has rebounded with a decrease in open interest [28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [32] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventory has decreased [37] 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are plans to put new urea production facilities into operation, but the specific impact on supply needs to be further observed [46] - **Urea Operating Rate**: Short - term maintenance losses have increased, and the operating rate has decreased [48] - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing routine, loss - based, or policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future [51][52] 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption shows certain seasonal characteristics [57] - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the production profit has changed slightly [61] - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate show certain trends [63] - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume show certain changes [66][68] - **Terminal Demand**: The demand in industries such as plywood, real estate shows certain trends [74][78] - **Export**: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [84][85] 3.6. Option - Related - The open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of urea options show certain characteristics [95][97][104] 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - The urea industry chain has certain characteristics, and the fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops shows seasonal patterns [107][114]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malay and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the time point for inventory reduction may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see for more definite production signals [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: This week, the three major oils fluctuated weakly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market were close to zero. The supply of palm oil in the producing areas remained large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. The market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, which suppressed the market trend. In Malaysia, the October MPOB monthly report showed that the palm oil inventory accumulated to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production month - on - month and a slight increase in exports. The main reason was the significant decline in domestic apparent consumption, resulting in a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. In Indonesia, if production cannot be maintained at a high level in the long term and global oil demand is stable, and the production - reduction season will come after the fourth quarter, the expectation of low inventory in Indonesia will continue, supporting palm oil prices in the medium and long term. However, the actual production in Indonesia exceeded expectations, reaching the highest monthly level in recent years. India only stocked palm oil steadily during the stocking season, and the short - term inventory accumulation of palm oil was obvious. In China, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was stable. The total inventory of domestic oils was about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. Among them, rapeseed oil inventory was 150,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 60,000 tons higher than last year, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level. Palm oil imports are expected to maintain a slightly lower - than - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil slows down the inventory reduction progress. However, due to the high margin for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total inventory of domestic oils shows a downward trend [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for more definite production signals. For arbitrage trading, no specific strategy is provided [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2601, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 01, and the basis and seasonal basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts, which help analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22] 3.3 Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which help understand the supply situation of palm oil in major producing areas [27][28] - **Other Oilseed Supply**: Charts show the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which help analyze the supply of other oilseeds and oils [29][31] - **Palm - Producing Area Weather**: Charts related to precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate are presented, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Situation**: Charts show the total inventory of domestic three major oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil commercial inventory, soybean oil main oil mill inventory, rapeseed oil commercial inventory in East China, Malaysian palm oil inventory, and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil inventory, which help understand the inventory status of different oils [40][43][45] - **Profit Situation**: Charts show the near - month import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, and the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast, which help analyze the profit situation of different oils [43][45][46] 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which help understand the cost of palm oil [50][52] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed, which help analyze the cost of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [54] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which helps understand the trading situation and demand of different oils [57] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which help analyze the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on oil demand [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Downstream demand is strong, and the transition point between the traditional peak and off - peak seasons may be postponed. The fundamentals are improving stage - by - stage, with a shortage of tradable spot goods and a strengthening of the premium/discount transaction price. If the resumption of production at large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the trend of destocking social inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue until the end of the fourth quarter. - During the week, the total positions of all contracts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by more than 100,000 lots. The price recovery increased the hedging willingness of holders, and the net short positions of the main contracts increased significantly. Subsequently, pay attention to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and the release of supply elasticity, and monitor changes in the atmosphere of the commodity market. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On October 24, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 79,169 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.81%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 79,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. [12] - **Supply**: On October 24, SMM reported that the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous week. The weekly domestic lithium carbonate production continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10.3% decrease from the previous month but a 20.5% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 173,000 tons, a 5.2% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, the export volume to China was 11,100 tons, a 14% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure in October. [12] - **Demand**: According to the China Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 632,000 units, a 5% increase compared to the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared to the same period last month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales in the national passenger car market was 56.1%. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle retail sales in October will reach about 1.32 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to about 60%. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand. [12] - **Inventory**: On October 23, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons ( - 1.7%) from the previous week. On October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,699 tons, a 6.5% decrease during the week. [12] - **Cost**: On October 24, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 890 - 925 US dollars per ton, a 6.76% increase during the week. In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a 38.0% year - on - year and 10.6% month - on - month increase. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. From January to September, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 5.8% year - on - year (a decrease of 8.8% in the first eight months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [12] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On October 24, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 79,169 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.81%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 79,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. - The average discount price in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange was + 150 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate was approximately 164,000 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots during the week. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 1,720 yuan. [20][23][27] 3.3 Supply Side - On October 24, SMM reported that the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 41.7% year - on - year. - In September, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 74.7% year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 16.0% year - on - year. - In September, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons. The cumulative increase from January to September was 9.1% year - on - year. Some salt lakes reduced production or stopped production, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, resulting in limited reduction during the traditional production off - peak season. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in September was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month. The cumulative increase from January to September was 22.9% year - on - year. - In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10.3% decrease from the previous month but a 20.5% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 173,000 tons, a 5.2% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, the export volume to China was 11,100 tons, a 14% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure from September to October. [33][36][39][42] 3.4 Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application sectors have limited share and weak growth. The share of lithium used in sectors such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5%. - In September 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were approximately 2.1 million units. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 23.6%. From October 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000 units, a 5% increase compared to the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared to the same period last month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales in the national passenger car market was 56.1%. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle retail sales in October will reach about 1.32 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to about 60%. - From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million units, a 26.7% increase compared to the previous year. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 1.063 million units, an 8.1% increase compared to the previous year. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% increase from the previous month and a 35.4% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 1,121.9 GWh, a 51.4% increase year - on - year. - From January to September, the cumulative production of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, while the production of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand. [46][49][52][55][58] 3.5 Inventory - On October 23, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons ( - 1.7%) from the previous week. On October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,699 tons, a 6.5% decrease during the week. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median level. The consumption of energy - storage batteries is strong, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. [65][68] 3.6 Cost Side - On October 24, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 890 - 925 US dollars per ton, a 6.76% increase during the week. - In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a 38.0% year - on - year and 10.6% month - on - month increase. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. From January to September, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 5.8% year - on - year (a decrease of 8.8% in the first eight months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [76][79]

震荡摩底 原油周报 2025/10/25 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates an escalation of the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historical high for the same period, suppressing the market, leading to a continuous reverse spread in polyolefin prices. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years. Against the backdrop of supply - side pressure and lackluster demand, polyolefins follow cost - side fluctuations [17][18]. - The predicted trading range for polyethylene (LL2601) this week is between 7200 - 7500, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is between 7000 - 7300. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: There is an expectation of an escalation in the Venezuela geopolitical conflict, causing crude oil prices to rebound. In terms of valuation, the weekly increase in polyethylene is in the order of cost > futures > spot, while for polypropylene, it is futures > spot > cost. Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 0.39%, Brent crude oil by 1.10%, coal prices by 5.83%, methanol fell by - 2.58%, ethylene by - 3.26%, and propylene by - 3.30%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. Cost - side support still exists [15]. - **Supply - side**: PE capacity utilization is 80.98%, a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease but a 3.90% year - on - year increase and a - 4.39% decrease compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 75.30%, a - 2.55% week - on - week decrease, a - 0.66% year - on - year decrease, and an - 8.54% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, polypropylene will face significant production pressure in the fourth quarter [15]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase but a - 10.04% year - on - year decrease. In August, PP imports were 177,400 tons, an 11.15% month - on - month increase and a - 6.18% year - on - year decrease. Import profits are decreasing, with a reduction in PE supplies from North America, easing import - side pressure. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a - 14.48% month - on - month decrease but a 63.54% year - on - year increase. In August, PP exports were 208,200 tons, a - 16.82% month - on - month decrease but a 21.14% year - on - year increase. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 0.18% week - on - week increase and a 0.11% year - on - year increase. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.00%, a 0.29% week - on - week increase and a 0.37% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years [16]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, with a - 2.81% week - on - week reduction and a 2.02% increase compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 50,000 tons, with a - 0.70% week - on - week reduction. PP production enterprise inventory is 638,500 tons, with a - 5.92% week - on - week reduction and a 12.69% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 220,000 tons, with a - 7.80% week - on - week reduction; PP port inventory is 66,800 tons, with a - 1.62% week - on - week reduction. Overall, PP inventory pressure is higher than that of PE [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the term structure, prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warrants of PE and PP, including the term structure of PE and PP, the prices of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the basis of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of LLDPE and PP, the open interest of LLDPE and PP active contracts, and the registered warrants of LLDPE and PP contracts. It also mentions that South Korea's ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [31][63]. 3.3 Cost - side - The report provides a series of charts showing the prices of various raw materials and related indicators, such as the prices of PE and PP in the spot and futures markets and their costs, WTI crude oil prices, thermal coal prices, naphtha prices, propane prices, gasoline crack spreads, P/N/C prices, LPG registered warrants, domestic LPG spot and futures prices and basis, Saudi CP prices, Far East FEI prices, domestic LPG supply - side composition, China's LPG production, China's crude oil processing volume, China's major refinery capacity utilization rate and gross profit, domestic LPG import dependence, China's LPG import source proportion, South China's LPG import profit, LPG arrival volume, China's LPG import volume, Panama Canal water level, Gatun Lake water level, LPG freight rates from the US and the Middle East to the Far East, LPG refinery and port storage ratios, China's LPG demand proportion, China's LPG chemical demand proportion, China's olefin LPG actual demand, MTBE and PDH production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, alkylation oil production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, US propane prices, production, inventory, exports, and product supply [73]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Composition**: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [139]. - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the annual changes in PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate. In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation [143][145]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The current PE capacity utilization rate is 80.98%, with a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease. The report also provides information on PE maintenance plans and the resulting production losses [15][147].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply faces significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans rebounded this week. Trump's negotiations with multiple countries are beneficial for US soybean sales, and the reluctance of US domestic spot holders to sell also provides support. Brazil's new - crop soybean planting is progressing normally, with an expected planting progress of about 30% this week. Brazil's premium quotes have been continuously decreasing, but the rebound of US soybeans is more significant, causing the domestic soybean arrival cost to rise slightly by 50 yuan/ton. Currently, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and there is some room for Brazil's premium to decline. Since there is no significant downward trend in the global soybean supply, it is expected that the domestic soybean import cost will fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, Brazil's quotes will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first trade on the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to fall, and then, after the game between US soybeans and Brazil's premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the soybean meal market will then trade based on the cost [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, the basis weakened, the futures market was strong, and the oil mills' futures crushing profit rebounded. The domestic soybean meal trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.95 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 days. As of October 22, institutional statistics showed that the soybean purchases in August were 9.2 million tons, 8.64 million tons in September, 8.52 million tons in October, and 5.26 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic supply has significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9][10][11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, but does not provide specific analysis [17][18]. - **Basis of the Main Contract**: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract, but does not provide specific analysis [20][21]. - **Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of multiple contracts such as soybean meal 11 - 1, soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01, but does not provide specific analysis [23][24]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal management funds, but does not provide specific analysis [26][29] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - quality rate, but does not provide specific analysis [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and its forecast, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America from July to September and its occurrence frequency, and the impact of La Nina on South American climate, but does not provide specific analysis [35][37][39]. - **US Soybean Processing and Price**: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean processing profit, Illinois Central No. 1 yellow soybean spot price, US soybean monthly processing volume, and NOPA soybean oil inventory, but does not provide specific analysis [47][50]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year, but does not provide specific analysis [51][52]. - **China's Oilseed Import**: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports, but does not provide specific analysis [54][55]. - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: The report shows the historical trends of the soybean and rapeseed processing volumes of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [56][57]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [60][61]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of the soybean meal inventory of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [63][64]. - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of the processing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast, but does not provide specific analysis [65][66]. 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the cumulative trading volume of soybean meal by major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, but does not provide specific analysis [67][68]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit per feather of white - feather broilers, but does not provide specific analysis [69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released as of October 9, 2025. Subsequently, tracking macro - dynamics and weather conditions will be crucial price drivers [12]. - The rubber price is currently low, offering a good risk - reward ratio for long positions. If there are positive events, the rubber price is likely to rebound [12]. - The US tariff negative news on October 13, 2025, was beyond expectations and requires further observation [12]. - Currently, the driving factors for rubber price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate [12]. - The postponement of EUDR implementation is a short - term negative for demand, but the new proposal in October 2025 is a marginal positive with limited upside potential [13]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is considered a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [14]. - The market's long - side logic is mainly based on the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The short - side's main reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Drivers and Outlook**: The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released. The rubber price is low, and if there are positive events, it may rebound. Currently, the driving factors for price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate [12]. - **Policy Impact**: The US tariff news on October 13, 2025, was unexpected. The EUDR implementation was postponed again, which is a short - term negative for demand. The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [12][13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the demand for semi - steel tires for export to Europe has weakened. Thailand is still in the rainy season, and supply is easily affected. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a small increase and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 tons [16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rubber price is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions on dips. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 (shorts can shift to RU2609) for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Seasonal Patterns**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber, and the ratio of rubber to crude oil have shown certain trends. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31][37][40]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratios - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, and stock indices are generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern [48][51][55]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Cost Estimates**: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, related to the rubber price [61]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Tire Factory Operation**: The operating rates of tire factories show no significant special values. The demand for trucks and commercial vehicles is gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][71][75]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Supply Status**: The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern. The production and export data of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China are presented in detail, along with year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [81][85][97]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, new production capacity for butadiene is expected to increase by 113 tons, with a 16% increase in total capacity compared to 2024. This is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee established "high - quality development" as the core task during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, which may provide new impetus for steel consumption. From a fundamental perspective, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. In the long - term, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - world demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.16%. The long - process output was 1.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%. The short - process output was 0.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.22%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, with a significant decrease. The supply - side pressure was gradually reduced [6]. - **Demand Side**: This week, the apparent rebar demand was 2.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%. The demand showed a slight week - on - week increase and was neutral [7][8]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social rebar inventory was 4.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. The total inventory was 6.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 45.7%. The rebar inventory has been continuously decreasing after the holiday, and the inventory contradiction has been gradually alleviated [9]. - **Profit**: The hot metal cost was 2,646 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 153 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9% [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Rebar Futures and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was 36 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 50 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 86 yuan/ton [20][22]. - **Roll - Rebar Spread**: The Beijing roll - rebar spread was 230 yuan/ton (last week: 240 yuan/ton), the Shanghai roll - rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (last week: 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou roll - rebar spread was - 10 yuan/ton (last week: - 20 yuan/ton) [25]. - **North - South Spread**: The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai rebar spread was - 37 yuan/ton (last week: - 56 yuan/ton) [28]. - **Disc - Coil Premium**: The Beijing disc - coil premium was 230 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), the Shanghai disc - coil premium was 160 yuan/ton (last week: 150 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou disc - coil premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [30]. - **Rebar - Billet Spread and Domestic - Foreign Spread**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3,070 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3,100 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 456 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of Southeast Asian rebar was 468 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of US rebar was 985 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of EU rebar was 570 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of UAE - produced rebar in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton [33]. - **Rebar - Coke Ratio and Rebar - Ore Ratio**: The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,107 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 917 yuan/ton [36]. 3. Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 153 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2,226 yuan/ton, the hot metal cost was 3,293 yuan/ton, and the average hot metal cost of 64 steel mills was 2,646 yuan/ton [39][47] 4. Supply Side - **Weekly Output**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%, and the cumulative output was 91.381 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The long - process output was 1.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The short - process output was 0.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [51]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52% (previous value: 53%) [54]. - **Hot Metal Output**: This week, the average daily hot metal output was 2.4 million tons (previous value: 2.41 million tons) [59]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.45 million tons (previous value: 0.42 million tons), in the southern region was 0.78 million tons (unchanged from the previous value), in the eastern region was 0.85 million tons, in Jiangsu was 0.39 million tons, in Shandong was 0.08 million tons, in Anhui was 0.13 million tons, in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.06 million tons [62][65][68] 5. Demand Side - **Building Materials Trading Volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of Shanghai building materials was 18,800 tons (unchanged from last week). The trading volume of building steel in the northern region was 21,195 tons, in Beijing was 7,900 tons, in the eastern region was 44,478 tons, in Shanghai was 5,100 tons, in Hangzhou was 8,100 tons, in the southern region was 39,650 tons, in Guangzhou was 4,700 tons, in Chengdu was 3,110 tons, in Chongqing was 4,700 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,600 tons [71][73][74] - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly rebar consumption was 2.26 million tons, the weekly rebar consumption in the eastern region was 0.97 million tons, in the southwestern region was 0.34 million tons, in the southern region was 0.32 million tons, in the northern region was 0.2 million tons, in the central region was 0.18 million tons, in the northeastern region was 0.16 million tons, and in the northwestern region was 0.16 million tons [79][81][84] - **Cement Price and Net Exports/Imports**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton [86] 6. Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the social rebar inventory was 4.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, with no week - on - week change, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. The total inventory was 6.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0%, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%. The Tangshan billet inventory was 1.29 million tons (previous value: 1.3 million tons) [89][91] - **Regional Inventory**: The social rebar inventory in 132 cities was 6.24 million tons, in the eastern region was 3.03 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.82 million tons, in Shanghai was 0.31 million tons, in the southern region was 0.7 million tons, in the northern region was 0.86 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.17 million tons, in Beijing was 0.39 million tons, in the central region was 0.51 million tons, in the northwestern region was 0.43 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.22 million tons, in Xi'an was 0.2 million tons, in the southwestern region was 0.61 million tons, in the northeastern region was 0.41 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.25 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.16 million tons [94][97][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a non - pessimistic view on the future of the black sector. Instead of short - selling, it suggests that finding a retracement point to go long may be more cost - effective. However, in the short term, attention should be paid to the potential "negative feedback" risk caused by high supply, low demand, and the decline in steel mill profitability [15][97]. - The outcomes of the Sino - US bilateral trade consultations and the meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC summit could impact the sentiment in the commodity market. Positive signals may improve market sentiment [15][97]. - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trends of the black sector, with their fundamentals lacking significant contradictions and drivers [15][97]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM601) was 5772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 2.35%, at a relatively neutral historical level [14][20]. - Manganese silicon production profits remained low, with losses in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. The production cost increased slightly in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and remained stable in Guangxi [14][25][30]. - Manganese silicon weekly output decreased slightly, while the weekly output of rebar increased. The daily average hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The visible inventory of manganese silicon increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory decreased slightly [14]. - The market is advised to focus on the Sino - US bilateral trade consultations and the meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC summit. There is a short - term "negative feedback" risk in the black sector due to high supply and low demand [15]. 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM601) was 5772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 2.35%, at a relatively neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit (excluding depreciation) remained low. Inner Mongolia had a profit of - 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia had a profit of - 415 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week; and Guangxi had a profit of - 700 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [25]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 5995 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Guangxi, it was 6350 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [30]. - In August, the manganese ore import volume was 308.49 tons, down 40.11 tons month - on - month and up 35.71 tons year - on - year. As of October 17, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 436.4 tons, down 9.3 tons week - on - week [33][36]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.74 tons, down 0.14 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.32%. In September 2025, the monthly output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month [44]. - HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in October 2025 was 16,500 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 4500 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - The weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.27 tons, up 0.16 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.07 tons, up 5.91 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75% [60][63]. 3.1.5. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.31 tons, up 2.44 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month [71][77]. - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 29.3 tons, up 3.05 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated slightly upward, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98%. On the daily chart, it was still within the trading range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton and approached the downward trend line since July. Attention should be paid to the support near 5600 yuan/ton and the direction at the trend line [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.80% [95]. - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 31.1 tons, down 1.66 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 5.07% [95]. - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 13.04 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month [95]. - The basis of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 108 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 1.91%, at a neutral historical level [96]. - Ferrosilicon production profits remained in the red. The estimated production cost in the main producing areas was relatively stable [96]. - HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in October 2025 was 2956 tons, down 195 tons month - on - month and up 920 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton month - on - month [97]. - The ferrosilicon market is likely to follow the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [97]. 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF601) was 5542 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis ratio of 1.91%, at a neutral historical level [102]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - As of October 24, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 586 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 413 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Qinghai, it was - 400 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week [107]. - The price of silica in the northwest region remained stable, while the price of semi - coke small pieces increased by 50 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in the main producing areas was relatively stable [110][113]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.4 tons, up 0.13 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.47%. In September 2025, the monthly output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month [118]. - HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in October 2025 was 2956 tons, down 195 tons month - on - month and up 920 tons year - on - year. The tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - The daily average hot metal output was 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.75%. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7350 tons, down 390 tons month - on - month and 360 tons year - on - year [127]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.80%. China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 31.1 tons, down 1.66 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 5.07% [95]. 3.2.5. Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, the visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 13.04 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The average available days of steel mill inventory in October was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month [142][145]. 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rise slightly, with a weekly increase of 112 yuan/ton or 2.06%. On the daily chart, it was still within the trading range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton and faced short - term pressure after touching the downward trend line since July. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction at the trend line [150].