Report Title - Crude Oil Stops Falling and Rebounds, Styrene Temporarily Stabilizes - Styrene Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. The BZN spread of pure benzene has decreased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has increased, with the overall valuation being moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season, leading to a brief rebound in the downstream 3S开工率. Port inventories are fluctuating at a high level. In the short term, geopolitical factors will push up the crude oil price center, and the seasonal peak season will interfere with the decline of styrene prices. When the seasonal off - season arrives at the end of the fourth quarter, the futures price may continue to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information** - Policy: There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound [11]. - Valuation: The weekly decline of styrene (futures > cost > spot), the basis weakens, the BZN spread decreases, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants increases [11]. - Cost: Last week, the spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 3.08%, the price of the active futures contract of pure benzene decreased by - 0.16%, the pure benzene basis decreased by 166 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene operating rate fluctuated at a high level [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 71.88%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.35%, a year - on - year increase of 2.10%, and a decrease of - 8.20% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the supply - demand pattern may change in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side may be slightly relieved. In September, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.3507 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in September was 246,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. Last week, the port inventory of pure benzene and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate at a high level [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream 3S was 42.92%, a month - on - month increase of 11.38%; the operating rate of PS was 53.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.47% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.49%; the operating rate of EPS was 62.52%, a month - on - month increase of 53.47% and a year - on - year increase of 4.80%; the operating rate of ABS was 73.10%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [12]. - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB was 193,200 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of - 0.11% and a year - on - year stocking of 17.59%; the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a month - on - month stocking of 3.05% and a year - on - year stocking of 483.57%. Port inventories continued to accumulate at a high level [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint** - Forecast for this week: The reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is (5800 - 6100); the reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2511) is (6800 - 7100). It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to styrene, including spot price, futures active contract price, basis, open interest, trading volume, registered warehouse receipts, and spreads between different contracts from 2021 - 2025 [16][19][21] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory** - The report shows charts of the inventory of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and styrene factories from 2021 - 2025 [34][35][37] - **Profit** - The POSM profit of styrene has recovered from the historical low in the same period. The production process of styrene mainly includes ethylbenzene dehydrogenation (85%), PO/SM co - production (12%), and C8 extraction (3%). The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [41][43][46] 4. Cost Side - **Supply - Side Profit** - The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly [53] - **Supply - Demand of Pure Benzene** - In 2025, pure benzene will continue to reduce inventory, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 2.28 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 3.11 million tons [57][58] - **Price Difference** - The US - South Korea price difference of pure benzene has fluctuated upwards [64] - **Downstream Factory Inventory** - The factory inventory of caprolactam has been fluctuating at a high level [91] 5. Supply Side - **Production Plan** - In 2025, the supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.42 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 4.198 million tons [105][107] - **Production and Import - Export** - The styrene production has declined from the high level in the same period. The report also shows charts of styrene's daily production, export volume, import volume, and weekly operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [113][117][115] 6. Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast** - The report presents the capacity, production, and growth rate charts of PS, EPS, and ABS from 2021 - 2025 [125] - **Operating Rate and Profit** - The operating rate of EPS has seasonally rebounded, the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level, and the report also shows the production profit and inventory charts of PS, EPS, and ABS [128][136][138] - **Downstream Demand Structure** - PS accounts for 35% of the demand for styrene, mainly used in food packaging, daily necessities, and electronic casings; EPS accounts for 21%, mainly used in building insulation materials and shock - proof packaging; ABS accounts for 15%, mainly used in household appliance casings, auto parts, and toys [147] - **Downstream Product Sales** - The report shows the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate charts of household refrigerators and washing machines from 2021 - 2025 [148][152][157]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the text. Core View of the Report The lead ore's visible inventory is decreasing, and the import TC of lead concentrate is declining again. The smelting operation rate at the primary end has increased, and the inventory at primary plants has decreased. The inventory of waste lead-acid batteries has slightly increased, the smelting profit of recycled lead has improved significantly, and the operation rate of recycled lead has risen above 40%. On the demand side, the operation rate of batteries has slightly improved, and the price of lead-acid batteries has increased after a long period of stability. The social and factory inventories of lead ingots continue to decline, with the latest social inventory below 30,000 tons. The monthly spread of SHFE lead has shown an explosive increase after a long period of stability, and there are certain structural risks in the domestic market. Considering the recent positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the prices of base metals have been strong, and several metals such as silver, zinc, and lead have shown structural risks. The sector atmosphere is favorable for bulls, and it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% at 17,592 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose 10.5 to 2,017.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 154,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined-scrap spread was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36% [11]. 02 - Primary Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -6.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.8%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,070,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 24.4%. The net import of silver concentrate in September was 160,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -8.6% and a month - on - month change of -14.1%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,358,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.8% [15]. - **Production**: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of -3.0%. From January to September, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -7.5% and a month - on - month change of -0.7%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,185,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 306,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.4% and a month - on - month change of -1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2,434,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation Rate and Output**: The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [26]. 03 - Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.0%. From January to September, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In September 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -12,400 tons, a year - on - year change of -70.1% and a month - on - month change of 9.5%. From January to September, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -80,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -50.1%. In September, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 657,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.8% and a month - on - month change of 0.1%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,829,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 04 - Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36%. In September 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 718,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.4% and a month - on - month change of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,836,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In September 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.6474 million units, and the net export weight was 97,000 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 60,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.1% and a month - on - month change of -0.8%. From January to September, the total net export of lead in batteries was 554,700 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In September 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased from 20.5 to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries at dealers decreased from 42 to 39.7 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high current vehicle ownership and the high replacement demand of existing vehicles support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have driven a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 05 - Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -61,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -8,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -53,900 tons [66]. 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net position of SHFE lead turned net long, the net long position of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of platinum group metals was weak due to the decline in precious metal prices. However, high lease rates and the continuous release of expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates will strongly support the subsequent trends of platinum and palladium prices [3]. - As CME inventories accumulate, lease rates indicate a tightening of overseas platinum group metal spot markets. The market expects the Fed to continue a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, which is expected to support platinum group metal prices at high levels [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum主力合约价格本周下跌2.13%至1595.1美元/盎司，NYMEX钯金主力合约价格下跌3.79%至1458.5美元/盎司 [3]. - **Inventory and ETF Changes**: From September 24 to October 24, CME platinum inventory increased from 18.96 tons to 20.845 tons, and CME palladium inventory increased from 5.09 tons to 5.49 tons. The total holdings of platinum group metal ETFs that lock in spot goods have rebounded [3]. - **Lease Rates**: As of October 24, the one - month implied lease rate for overseas platinum spot reached 31.87%, and that for palladium spot reached 18.56%, both at multi - year highs [3]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX铂金主力合约价格本周下跌2.13%至1595.1美元/盎司，总持仓截至9月23日为97978手。上海金交所铂金现货价格截至10月24日为396.2元/克 [18][21][25]. - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX钯金主力合约价格下跌3.79%至1458.5美元/盎司，总持仓量截至最新报告期为20282手 [22]. - **Lease Rates**: As of October 24, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum rose to 31.87%, and that for palladium was 18.56%, both showing significant increases [29]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the latest reporting period on September 23, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 3638 hands to 18285 hands, and the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 5176 hands [32][35]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **ETF Holdings**: As of October 24, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 76.43 tons, and the total holdings of palladium ETFs were 14.84 tons [46][49]. - **Platinum Inventory**: As of October 24, CME platinum inventory was 20.85 tons, with a decrease in registered inventory and an increase in unregistered inventory [53]. - **Palladium Inventory**: As of October 24, CME palladium inventory was 5497.03 kilograms, with a decrease in total inventory mainly due to a decrease in unregistered inventory [58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 mines shows that the platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024 [64]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total production of the top 15 palladium mines in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the annual production of the top 15 mines will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons [67]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [70][73]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Presented NYMEX铂金1 - 4价差、4 - 7价差、7 - 10价差和10 - 1价差的相关数据 [89][90]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Presented NYMEX钯金3 - 6价差、6 - 9价差、9 - 12价差和12 - 3价差的相关数据 [102][98]. - **London Spot and NYMEX Spreads**: Presented the spreads between London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, and between London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price, which is oscillating at the bottom. If the inventory continues to rise, it's difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. Short - term advice is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In the nickel ore market, the overall trading atmosphere is fair this week. In the Philippines, due to the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas, the mine price is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term. In Indonesia, the new regulation on the approval cycle has accelerated the stockpiling of smelters, and the overall ore price is expected to remain stable or rebound slightly; the wet - process ore market is relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, the game between supply and demand sides of ferronickel intensifies, and the price is weak. The profit of iron plants is squeezed, and they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand from stainless - steel enterprises is weak, and they are pressing down on the price of ferronickel. With cost support, the decline space of ferronickel is limited, and attention should be paid to the change in the demand side of stainless steel [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the bargaining power of sellers has increased. The downstream industry has entered the peak demand season, and the demand for raw material procurement has been released. The downstream enterprises' acceptance of the high - price MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: This week, the nickel price oscillated. Macroeconomic factors such as the US inflation data and Sino - US trade relations have affected market sentiment. The output of refined nickel remains high, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The spot parity and the three - month parity increased. The import loss decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased. The inventory of nickel plates increased, and that of nickel beans decreased [15]. - **Futures market**: The closing prices of LME and SHFE nickel decreased. The LME nickel open interest decreased, and the SHFE nickel open interest increased [15]. - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined - nickel spot premium oscillated. As of October 25, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [23]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ferronickel price was weak, and the average price of domestic high - nickel pig iron decreased by 7 yuan/nickel point compared with last week. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained stable [27]. 3.3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The price of nickel ore remained stable with a slight increase. On October 24, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - earth nickel ore increased by 0.1 US dollars/wet ton compared with last week, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore remained unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore increased by 1 US dollar/wet ton [36]. - **Ferronickel**: The production profit of ferronickel is under pressure, and the profit situation varies in different regions [38][40]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the price and the transaction coefficient are relatively strong [46]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, the national refined - nickel output remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel market and downstream manufacturing and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on the current situation of import and export are mentioned, but relevant historical data trends are presented [57]. - **Inventory**: The global visible inventory of nickel increased by 0.17% to 298,550 tons, and both China and LME saw inventory accumulation [61]. - **Cost**: The production cost and profit rate vary by different raw materials and processes [63]. 3.5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are presented through historical data trends [67]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - **Cost and price**: The production cost and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel vary by different raw materials [72]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and demand of nickel from 2023 to 2025 are forecasted. The total supply is expected to exceed the total demand, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in 2025 [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc market shows a complex structure. The LME zinc has structural risks with a high basis difference, while the domestic zinc inventory reduction rate has slowed down. With the opening of the domestic zinc ingot export window, the Shanghai-London ratio has stabilized. Considering the positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - position of 213,400 lots in unilateral trading. The LME zinc 3S fell 7.5 to 3,027 dollars/ton, with a total long - position of 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,190 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread at 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 56.18 dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 110 dollars/dry ton. The zinc concentrate port inventory was 270,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 628,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts including US fiscal and debt data (such as monthly fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit MA12, ratio of US national debt to GDP), Fed's balance sheet data (assets and liabilities), dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMI data of China and the US, as well as new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. The zinc ore net import was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 25.2% and a month - on - month change of 8.6%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.2% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.2% and a month - on - month change of - 4.2%. The zinc ingot net import was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of - 16.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of - 4.7% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. Their raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and their finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of 3.9% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spread**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons, with an inner - market Shanghai basis of - 55 yuan/ton and a continuous - contract minus first - contract spread of - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons, with an outer - market cash - 3S contract basis of 225.89 dollars/ton and a 3 - 15 spread of 56.18 dollars/ton [60][63]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net long positions of Shanghai zinc turned slightly long, the net long positions of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply; the focus of the futures market game is whether the spot price increase can cover the premium of the futures. Currently, it is the traditional egg stocking season, and the downward space of the spot price is limited. There is a small increase expectation but no large increase space in terms of driving force. The futures market position is high, and it is judged to be in the bottom - building stage, but the space is not optimistic, and the rhythm may be repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature dropped, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao at 2.53 yuan/jin, in Huilongguan in the sales area dropped to 3.12 yuan/jin, and in Dongguan dropped to 2.77 yuan/jin [11]. - **Restocking and Culling**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature drop, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price dropped after the festival, the futures basis returned to a low level, driving the monthly spread to decline [23]. - **Culling Chicken Price**: The egg price is not strong during the peak season, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the culling chicken price has dropped significantly, but the chicken age remains at a high level of 499 days [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Egg Chicken Restocking**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [33]. - **Culling Chicken Slaughter**: Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days, but still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [38][41]. 3.4. Demand Side - The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and month - on - month, and the profit is at a seasonal low level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current uncertainty in tariff progress is high, and the short - term decline in market risk appetite is conducive to the repair of the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. - The economic growth rate in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. Exports were resilient in September, and the growth rate of industrial added value exceeded expectations. However, the growth rates of consumption and investment continued to slow down. In the future, attention should be paid to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit of 500 billion yuan on the growth rate in the fourth quarter [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Economic and Policy Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In September, industrial added value remained resilient, while the consumption and investment sectors continued to recover weakly. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not great. Policy may focus more on the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US inflation data in September was slightly lower than expected, strengthening the logic of further interest rate cuts [10]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, social consumer goods retail sales were 419.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year [10]. - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in China was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 722.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [10]. - The new Japanese Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth more than 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) [10]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total foreign - related payments and receipts reached $11.6 trillion, a record high for the same period. Cross - border capital inflows were $119.7 billion, and the bank settlement and sales surplus was $63.2 billion, both higher than the same period last year. In September, the cross - border income and expenditure of non - bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals totaled $1.37 trillion, a month - on - month increase of 7% [10]. - On the morning of October 25, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [10]. - In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, also lower than the expected 3.1% [10]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, both exceeding expectations [10]. Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 789.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [11]. Interest Rates - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.85%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 BP; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20 BP. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, with no week - on - week change [11]. Summary - The current bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock. In terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF contracts [16][22][25][28]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, China's GDP actual growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [45]. - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI increased by 0.1%, the core CPI remained unchanged, and the PPI remained unchanged [54]. - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 15.6% year - on - year [57]. - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [60]. - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year [63]. - In September, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the construction area of houses decreased by 9.4% year - on - year [66]. - In September, the completion - end data decreased by 15.45% year - on - year, and the new - house sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened recently [69]. Foreign Economy - In the second quarter, the US GDP nominal annualized figure was $3,033.1 billion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [72]. - In August, the US durable goods orders were $312.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3% [75]. - In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50. In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [78]. - In September, the eurozone CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service PMI was 51.3 [81]. 4. Liquidity - In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 scissors difference continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan [86]. - In September, the growth rate of social financing in the government bond segment slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of residents and enterprises was 5.94%, and the government bond growth rate was 20.20% [89]. - In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report presents the changes in various market interest rates including repurchase rates, treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond yields [95]. - The report also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US treasury bond yields, and exchange rates [99][102][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak this week, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating downward. At the macro - level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee set "high - quality development" as the core task for the 14th Five - Year Plan period, which may bring new impetus to steel consumption. The demand structure of steel will shift from traditional real - estate construction to high - end manufacturing, green infrastructure, and new - quality productivity. In terms of fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability rate of steel mills declined significantly, and the molten iron output dropped notably, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the long run, the logic of the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but in the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly [10][11] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Cost End - The blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils was - 56 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace gross profit continued to shrink. The spot price was about 90 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7] Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The daily average output of molten iron was 2.399 million tons this week, with a significant decrease, and the supply - side pressure decreased marginally. The output of hot - rolled coils was moderately high, and attention should be paid to whether the output can decrease in the future [8] Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The demand rebounded significantly, but the inventory reduction was slow. The export increased week - on - week, and the demand level was neutral [9] Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1492 million tons. The inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still high [10] Strategy Recommendation - The recommended strategy was to wait and see [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presented multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, futures contract price differences, and price differences between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, coated coils, and galvanized sheets [17][21][36] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report showed charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces, and the inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated sheets [56][57][62] 4. Cost End - The report included charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, the price of scrap steel, the daily average molten iron output, the cost of molten iron, and the prices of steel - making pig iron and billets [77][78][82] 5. Supply End - The report presented charts of the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils in different regions and samples, as well as the weekly output of coated and galvanized sheets and their capacity utilization rates [90][91][104] 6. Demand End - The report showed charts of the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the production and sales of automobiles, the production of agricultural machinery, household appliances, metal containers, railway locomotives, and other products related to steel demand [107][108][111]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased week - on - week and were at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both grew, with FMG showing strong shipment momentum, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries slightly recovered. However, the near - end arrivals decreased week - on - week. [11][13][14] - The latest average daily hot metal output dropped below 2.4 million tons, mainly affected by weak steel prices, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production. The contradiction between high hot metal output and terminal demand was gradually realized, leading to a decrease in hot metal output. [13][14] - Port inventories continued to increase, and steel mill inventories showed a slight increase. Fundamentally, after the decline in hot metal output, the demand for iron ore weakened, port inventories continued to accumulate, and prices were under pressure. [13][14] - Macroscopically, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session was officially released, and attention should be paid to the details of the "14th Five - Year Plan". A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations has begun. If positive signals are released, it may further improve market sentiment. Overall, the reality is weak, and the tug - of - war of macro - expectations still exists, so iron ore prices will fluctuate. [13][14] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipments totaled 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 28.25 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons. Australian shipments were 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 17.291 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.446 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons. [13] - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0105 million tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.79 percentage points. [13] - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0725 million tons. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder price difference was 122 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder price difference was 162 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 6.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 23.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a change of - 0.51 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.33%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.55%, a change of + 0.55 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. [25] - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a change of - 7.79 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 24.26 yuan/wet ton. [28] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 144.2359 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.4532 million tons. The pellet inventory was 272,170 tons, a week - on - week change of + 10,380 tons. [35] - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.13289 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.12966 million tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.92357 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.13952 million tons. [38] - The Australian ore port inventory was 5.935 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06527 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.77143 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.08743 million tons. [41] - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills this week was 9.07919 million tons, a change of + 0.09646 million tons from the previous week. [46] 3.4 Supply Side - The volume of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports in the latest period was 16.602 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.345 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.243 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.118 million tons. [51] - Rio Tinto's shipments to China in the latest period were 5.628 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.574 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipments to China were 4.196 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.817 million tons. [54] - Vale's shipments in the latest period were 6.362 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.355 million tons. FMG's shipments to China were 4.469 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. [57] - The arrivals at 45 ports in the latest period were 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports in China in September were 18.5836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6846 million tons. [60] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the latest period was 60.59%, a week - on - week change of - 0.07 percentage points. The average daily output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 47,350 tons, a week - on - week change of - 20 tons. [66] 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0105 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a week - on - week change of - 0.39 percentage points. [71] - The average daily port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1265 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0307 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9646 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0089 million tons. [74] 3.6 Basis As of October 24, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 68.08 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 8.11%. [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents per pound or 0.17% from the previous week. The price of Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton or 1.54% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose to 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis weakened slightly, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened slightly [9]. - Due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. On October 23, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.28 yuan per kilogram, up 0.11 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared to the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [9]. - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year was weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season in China, leading to significant selling hedging pressure. Although the purchase price of new cotton has increased slightly recently, driving the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, down 0.17%. The spread between US cotton December - March contracts was - 1.53 cents per pound, down 0.03 cents per pound. Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton. The basis weakened slightly to 1263 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened to 0 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Industry Information**: USDA data suspension due to the US government shutdown. Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton purchase index rose to 6.28 yuan per kilogram. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, showing no change from the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Weak demand during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and expected bumper harvests with high selling hedging pressure. The recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term upward price space is limited [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton spreads, and other international spread trends, but no specific text analysis is provided [24]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: It shows the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [39]. - **Cotton Imports**: Displays monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [41]. - **US Exports to China**: Presents the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Shows monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: Displays the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Shows the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory [53]. - **Spinning Mill Inventory**: Displays the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Includes the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - quality rate, double - weekly and cumulative processing volumes, production and planting area estimates, export contract progress, export shipment volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [58][60][62]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Covers the planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [71][74]. - **Indian Situation**: Involves the planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][82].