Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, with prices in Henan stable and those in the Northeast being strong. Futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. Oil mills' theoretical profit is acceptable, and peanut meal is expected to be strong in the short - term [4][8][6]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7862, up 30 (0.38%), with a trading volume of 11,043 (-47.34%) and an open interest of 19,930 (6.10%); PK510 closed at 8154, up 6 (0.07%), with a trading volume of 36 (0.00%) and an open interest of 552 (1.28%); PK601 closed at 7814, up 60 (0.77%), with a trading volume of 91,458 (-12.54%) and an open interest of 159,998 (-7.51%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with no change. Basis was -414, -14, -14 respectively. Import prices of Sudanese rice were 8600 and Senegalese rice were 7600, with no change. The price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil increased by 60 to 8370 [2]. - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was -48, up 30; PK04 - PK10 spread was -292, up 24; PK10 - PK01 spread was 340, down 54 [2]. Market Analysis - In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.35 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin, and Liaoning Changtu were 4.3 yuan/jin, stable. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts were 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin, stable. Shandong Junan was 3.7 yuan/jin, stable. Imported peanut prices were also stable. Peanut oil prices were stable, and Rizhao soybean meal was stronger, with peanut meal also expected to be strong in the short - term [4][6]. Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Try short - term long on 05 peanuts as 01 and 05 peanuts are oscillating at low levels [9]. - **Calendar Spread**: Stay on the sidelines [10]. - **Options**: Hold the sold pk601 - P - 7600 [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concerns about the shipping companies' quotes falling short of expectations in the second half of November still exist, and the peak season height in the future may be limited. The EC futures market continued to fluctuate in a callback. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: On November 10, EC2512 closed at 1778.2 points, down 1.87% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line index released after the market closed was 1504.8 points, up 24.5% week-on-week. The spot freight rate basically met expectations. The shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' schedule adjustment plans, cargo - collection performance, and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday arrangement on the EC2602 contract valuation [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and there are still concerns about the expectations not being met in November. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short term, so it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage trading, it is also recommended to wait and see [8][9] Industry News - According to Clarksons' data on November 7, the global new ship orders in October this year were 2.91 million compensated gross tons (118 ships), down 38% year - on - year and 33% month - on - month. Chinese shipyards ranked first with 2.13 million compensated gross tons (98 ships), accounting for 73% of the market share [10] - On November 7, 2025, a container ship caught fire during unloading operations at the Tanjung Pelepas Port in Malaysia, resulting in 3 deaths and 3 injuries, and the port suspended operations [10] - On November 10, several Democratic senators in the US Senate were ready to advance a package of bills to end the government shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary said that the impact of the government shutdown on the economy was getting worse, and inflation was making substantial progress with prices expected to fall in the coming months [10][11] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes such as Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, and Shanghai - Europe [14][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polysilicon: Short - term weak, pay attention to the support at the previous low point [1] - Industrial silicon: Oscillating strongly, hold long positions [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon is in a tight - balance state in November, but it is difficult for the spot price to rise further. The futures price is weak in the short - term, and there may be support at the (51000, 52000) level after the November delivery [4]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a tight - balance state. The current inventory structure is conducive to a positive feedback between futures and spot prices. There may be positive news from the silicone enterprise meeting next week, and there may be production restrictions in Xinjiang due to weather, so it is more cost - effective to hold long positions [6]. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared with October, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 11.8 tons. The polysilicon production is 11.5 - 12 tons, showing a tight - balance state. The upstream inventory is about 25 tons, the downstream raw material inventory is about 17 tons, and the inventory of warrants and traders is about 4.5 tons [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand situation of polysilicon has improved marginally this month, but the prices of downstream silicon wafers and batteries are under pressure, and the inventory of crystal - pulling factories is high. It is difficult for the spot price to rise further. The futures price is weak in the short - term due to the lack of upward momentum in the spot price and the non - implementation of the platform company. After the November delivery, the negative impact of warrants on the futures price is significantly reduced, and there may be support at the (51000, 52000) level [4]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term weak, wait and see; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell put options when the price pulls back to the support level [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC increased by 5.51% to 4.79 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 5.05% to 2.91 tons. The operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys are 59.4% (up 0.2 percentage points) and 59.1% (unchanged) respectively. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 7.85% to 9.09 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 55.2 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.39 tons to 17.48 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.26 tons to 23.66 tons [6][13][26][27]. - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", which is conducive to a positive feedback between futures and spot prices. The high operating rates of silicone and aluminum alloy provide certain support for the demand of industrial silicon. Although the production of polysilicon has decreased significantly this month, the large - scale production cuts of silicon factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have led to a tight - balance state in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. There may be positive news from the silicone enterprise meeting next week, and there may be production restrictions in Xinjiang due to weather, so it is more cost - effective to hold long positions [6]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: Hold long positions; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly, and the main contract closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly output of DMC increased by 5.51% to 4.79 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 5.05% to 2.91 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 59.1% [13]. - **Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 7.85% to 9.09 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 42 this week. The number of open furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while that in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Ningxia increased slightly. The operating rate of silicon factories in the northwest has reached a high level, and there is no significant room for production increase in the future. It is expected that the output of industrial silicon will continue to decrease next week [26]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 55.2 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.39 tons to 17.48 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.26 tons to 23.66 tons [27]. - **Product prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week, and the prices of DMC and terminal products increased slightly [32][38]. - **Related product prices**: The prices of industrial silicon - related products remained stable, and the prices of silicone - related products increased slightly [32][38]. - **Intermediate fundamental data**: The operating rate of silicone intermediates increased slightly [43]. - **Aluminum alloy fundamental data**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly, while that of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged [46]. - **Raw material prices**: The raw material prices remained stable [49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trends**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49.4 - 55 yuan/kg, the price of N - type dense material is 49 - 53 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon is 50 - 51 yuan/kg [53][56]. - **Downstream product prices**: The prices of some silicon wafers and batteries decreased slightly, while the component prices showed a mixed trend [62][66]. - **Component fundamental data**: Component enterprises are gradually raising component quotes. The production of some component enterprises has decreased this month, but the terminal demand provides certain support. The planned production of components in November is 46GW. The inventory of European photovoltaic components has increased to 35.4GW, and the inventory of domestic photovoltaic manufacturers' components is 31.2GW, which is at a moderately low level [79]. - **Battery fundamental data**: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of professional battery manufacturers is 3.85GW, which is at a moderately low level. The battery production schedule has been adjusted down to 54GW in November [80]. - **Silicon wafer fundamental data**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises decreased, and the weekly output decreased to 13.45GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 17.52GW. The planned production of silicon wafers in November is 59GW, a decrease of 1GW compared with October [86]. - **Polysilicon fundamental data**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 25.9 tons. The planned production cuts of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in November will lead to a decrease of about 2 tons in the polysilicon output compared with October. The new production capacity of some enterprises is ramping up, and there is a certain production - cut plan for GCL Technology. Overall, the polysilicon output in November will decrease by about 2 tons compared with October [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, while strong inflation data may boost inflation expectations and suppress bond market performance. In the short - term, the bond market may operate weakly and stably due to lack of incremental positive factors [5]. - It is expected that the bond market will be weak first and then stable next week [5]. - For strategies, in the short - term, a defensive approach with a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, try to go long on the current - next quarter inter - period spread and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Data Analysis - **Foreign Trade**: In October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year and import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The negative export growth was related to a high base last year and trade disputes in October [9]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, better than expected. PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month, also better than expected [20][25]. - **Market Liquidity**: This week, the central bank net withdrew 15722 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, but the market funds were balanced and loose. Next week, government bond issuance will increase, with a net payment scale of about 3691.83 billion yuan, but the impact on funds is expected to be controllable [31][36]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Analysis - **Valuation**: The next - quarter contracts are generally over - valued compared to the current - quarter contracts, and the T contract IRR is also high compared to market funds. The IRR of TL, T, TF, TS current - quarter contracts are 1.4099%, 1.8770%, 1.6519%, 1.6209% respectively; the next - quarter contracts are 1.6357%, 1.8782%, 1.6831%, 1.7064% respectively [38][42]. - **Position Transfer**: As of Friday, the position transfer progress of TS, TF, T, TL contracts were 17.0%, 18.3%, 18.4%, 27.8% respectively. It is expected to accelerate next week, and may drive the inter - period spread to widen [47]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [52]. - **Contract Spreads**: Data on the spreads between TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [55]. - **Yield and Spread**: Data on the yield of treasury bond cash bonds and the term spread of treasury bond yields are provided, as well as data on the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond spread [57][59]. - **Exchange Rate**: Data on the US dollar index and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot market is weak. Although there is some recovery in supply from regions like Mexico and the Middle East, the expected early issuance of new crude oil quotas in 2026 may weaken the fuel - oil feedstock demand. The high - sulfur ship - fuel demand is stable, but the power - generation demand has completely subsided [4][22][25]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: There are short - term supply shortages due to the unplanned shutdown of the Al - Zour refinery and the upcoming maintenance of the Dangote refinery. In the medium term, there is still supply pressure. The demand has no specific drivers, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [31][34][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur fuel oil: Tok has been buying large quantities of high - sulfur fuel oil at low prices, causing the spot premium to decline continuously. The export logistics of high - sulfur fuel oil in the near term remains relatively stable after the sanctions. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil from Mexico has recovered, and that from the Middle East has increased with the decline in power - generation demand. The expected early issuance of new crude oil quotas in 2026 may lead to a weakening of the fuel - oil feedstock demand [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded slightly due to supply tightening. There is a short - term supply gap in low - sulfur fuel oil because of the unplanned shutdown and subsequent maintenance of the Al - Zour refinery's residue desulfurization unit. The Dangote refinery's maintenance may affect low - sulfur production, and the fourth - quarter quota for low - sulfur fuel oil has been tightened. The ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias, and short - term observation is recommended. - Arbitrage: Take profit on the FU1 - 5 reverse spread. The space for widening the LU01 - FU01 spread is limited. - Options: Observe [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply from Russia: Sanctions on Russia continue, and its large - scale export ports and major refineries have been attacked by drones. In October, the export of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased significantly, but the export from the Black Sea port of Tuapse is expected to increase in November [8][9]. - Supply from Mexico: The refining capacity of the Olmeca refinery has changed frequently, and new secondary units of various refineries have been put into operation. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil in October recovered to make up for the supply gap in September [13][14]. - Supply from the Middle East: The export of high - sulfur fuel oil increased after the power - generation demand subsided. The United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran [19][21]. - Demand: The expected early issuance of crude oil quotas may weaken the high - sulfur feedstock demand. The high - sulfur ship - fuel demand is supported stably, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth in the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers. The high - sulfur power - generation demand has completely subsided [22][25][28]. 3.2.2 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply: The unplanned shutdown of the Al - Zour refinery in the Middle East has led to a short - term supply gap. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria is undergoing unit rotation maintenance, which may affect low - sulfur production. The trade ban between South Sudan and the UAE has changed the low - sulfur logistics pattern [31][34][37]. - Demand: There is no specific driver for demand. The ship - fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [39]. - China's low - sulfur market: The quota for bonded low - sulfur exports in the fourth quarter has been tightened. The production of domestic refineries has decreased slightly, and some refineries may be affected by sanctions [42][44]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: Data on the prices of Brent crude oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil, as well as their spreads with Brent crude oil, are presented [47][49][51]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - period spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil are provided [54]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - variety spreads of low - sulfur fuel oil are provided [61]. - Natural gas - fuel oil ratio: The equal - calorific - value prices of various fuels and their changes are presented [64]. - Cross - regional freight: Data on cross - regional freight for fuel oil transportation are provided [67]. - Singapore bunker spreads: Data on bunker spreads in Singapore are provided [70]. - Fuel oil inventory structure: Data on fuel oil inventories in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are presented [73]. - Northwest European inventory structure: Data on gasoline, diesel, and refined - oil inventories in the ARA region are provided [81]. - US Gulf inventory structure: Data on gasoline, diesel, crude - oil, and Cushing crude - oil inventories in the US Gulf region are provided [84]. - Terminal sales structure: In September, the total bunker volume in Singapore decreased slightly. The high - sulfur bunker volume increased year - on - year, while the low - sulfur bunker volume decreased slightly [87][88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal market is currently under pressure from the US macro - situation but also supported by multiple risk factors. It is expected to continue its consolidation in the high - level range. The trading strategy recommends short - term traders to use a band - trading approach, and long - term investors to maintain a low - buying strategy. Meanwhile, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6][7] - The interference with the Fed's independence by Trump may push up inflation in the medium - long term, which is one of the main drivers of the precious metal market's rise since late August [19] - The US economic growth shows signs of weakness. The GDP growth has a certain degree of deception, the labor market is cooling, and inflation is fluctuating. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation stickiness and employment market risks [27][34][48] - The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction, which marks a key step in monetary policy shifting from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting and seeing" [51] - In the precious metal market, the supply and demand of gold are both increasing, with investment demand leading the growth. The supply of silver is relatively stable, and the demand is mainly affected by photovoltaic silver consumption [53][54][66] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - **US Macro - situation**: Fed officials have different views on the December interest - rate cut. Most are cautious, which has dampened market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. The US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, risks such as the government shutdown, tariff legal debates, and labor market risks support precious metals [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 54.9 tons. In Q3, there was a resonance in ETF, physical demand, and central bank gold - buying demand. Global gold ETF total holdings increased by 222 tons (a 30% quarter - on - quarter increase), bar and coin demand reached 316 tons (a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter increase), and global central bank gold - buying volume was 220 tons (a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase) [5] - **Futures Market**: Precious metals are currently under pressure and supported. The London gold range of $3900 - 4000, London silver range of $46 - 47 (Shanghai gold about 894 - 915 yuan, Shanghai silver about 11000 - 11200 yuan) show good support, but lack upward momentum. It is expected to continue to consolidate in the high - level range [6] - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Single - side Trading**: Short - term traders should mainly use a band - trading approach; long - term investors can continue the low - buying strategy [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Focus**: The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest - rate cut games. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, which may affect the Fed's independence and lead to medium - long - term inflation, driving up the precious metal market [19] - **US Economy - GDP**: The Q2 GDP growth was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.4%. However, the growth has a certain degree of deception. The net export item was abnormally high due to a large reduction in imports, and consumption and investment were weak [25][27] - **US Economy - Employment**: In August, the number of non - farm payrolls was 22,000, lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The labor market is cooling, and there are concerns about employment recession [34] - **US Economy - Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was better than expected, clearing the way for an October interest - rate cut. In August, the PPI was at a new low since June. Overall, inflation rebound is still moderate [45] - **Fed's Interest - rate Decision**: The October FOMC meeting dampened market expectations for an interest - rate cut. Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decline in the probability of a December interest - rate cut from over 90% to 70%. The future interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation and employment risks [46][47][48] - **Fed's Balance - sheet Reduction**: The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction. The balance of the RRP account is nearly exhausted, and the bank reserve account is approaching the neutral level. Ending the balance - sheet reduction marks a shift in monetary policy [51] Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold - Supply and Demand**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. The total demand also increased by 1% to 3717 tons. Investment demand dominated in Q3, and central bank gold - buying volume remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [53][54] - **Central Bank Gold - buying**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India are the main buyers. The reasons for gold - buying vary by country [63][64] - **Silver - Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, and the demand was 36,208 tons, with a supply - demand gap of 4634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2%, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, with a narrowing supply - demand gap [66] - **Silver Inventory**: The LBMA silver inventory has dropped to a historical low, with about 24,000 tons, but the freely - tradable amount is only about 6000 tons. The silver lease rate soared in October and has initially eased [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: In November, downstream production scheduling increases slightly month - on - month, lithium carbonate production decreases slightly, and imports rebound slightly. Supply growth is lower than demand, and inventory depletion is expected to accelerate. The inventory - to - sales ratio in November is expected to further decline. The price will remain high next week. Some funds flow in to layout long - term long positions, and the 2605 contract is more popular [6]. - Medium - term: In December, demand enters the off - season and is difficult to grow significantly. Overseas mine shipments increase, which may ease the tight supply - demand situation. After the production scheduling in mid - to - late November is more certain, the market may start to trade the marginal loosening of supply - demand. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo does not support the price to reach new highs [6]. - Futures strategy: If funds speculate on the improvement of supply - demand driven by energy storage next year and push the price close to the previous high, short - hedging can be considered. Pay attention to the spot trading situation next week. For unilateral trading, there is still short - term rebound momentum, and consider laying out short positions when entering the previous high pressure range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options to cooperate with the profit - taking of futures long positions [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Demand Analysis New Energy Vehicles - China: In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, sales were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The power battery cell production from January to October increased by 44.5% year - on - year to 985.5 GWh, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month in November [12]. - Global: From January to September 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million, while US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, an 86% year - on - year increase [17]. Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage orders are strong due to "export rush" demand and中标 projects in the Middle East, South America, and Australia. From January to October, China's energy storage battery cell production was 409.4 GWh, a 55% year - on - year increase. The inventory of energy storage battery cells is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended. Production in November and December is expected to maintain positive month - on - month growth, supporting lithium carbonate consumption [21]. November Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling - In October, battery production increased by 8% month - on - month, with ternary batteries increasing by 2.3% and lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 10%. In November, battery production is expected to increase by 1.1% month - on - month, with ternary batteries increasing by 0.6% and lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 1.1%. The production scheduling in December is expected to be flat, showing the characteristic of an off - season not being off - peak [26]. Supply Analysis Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Resumes Growth - From January to October, domestic lithium carbonate production was 776,000 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase. The production scheduling in November is 92,000 tons. Compared with May, the operating rate of integrated production capacity increased by 10%, and the operating rate of contract - manufacturing capacity increased by 30% (mainly lithium pyroxene production). The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is in progress [31]. Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - Data shows the production trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, lithium pyroxene, lithium mica, and recycling [33]. Limited Supply Increment of Lithium Carbonate in November - From January to September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 173,000 tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 16,200 tons. Lithium salt imports in November are expected to have limited month - on - month growth. Australian shipments from September to October are higher than the average from January to October, and African Mali will have arrivals in November and December [41]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only a graph of China's lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is shown [43]. Continuous Inventory Depletion of Lithium Carbonate, Reaching the Peak in November - This week, the social inventory decreased by 3,405 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,336 tons, downstream inventory decreasing by 1,280 tons, and other inventory decreasing by 790 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 289 tons this week, and the decline significantly narrowed. The spot basis returned to par, but the spread between 2601 - 2605 widened, reflecting the market's optimistic expectation for the far - month [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to favorable news over the weekend, positive domestic economic data, and continued market activity. However, the high - level volatility of technology stocks may still cause fluctuations [19][20]. - The upward trend of Treasury bond futures has temporarily paused due to the lack of incremental positive factors, weak foreign trade data, and the potential suppression from strong inflation data. The market is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [22]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face different supply - demand situations. For example, soybeans have supply pressure, sugar has a weak international trend and a domestic oscillating pattern, and the oilseed sector is in a bottom - grinding stage [24][28][32]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, coking coal and coke may be adjusted in the short term with opportunities to go long after a correction, iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset, and ferroalloys may have some cost support [57][60][65][67]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals will continue to be range - bound, copper will be in short - term volatile consolidation, alumina is in a bottom - grinding stage, aluminum prices will be strongly volatile, and other metals also have their own specific trends and trading strategies [70][74][77][84]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: Last week, the market was dominated by price - rising factors and future expectations. The index filled the gaps and then rebounded, and is expected to rise in a volatile manner with the support of positive news and economic data [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not chase high prices; consider building long positions on dips. Engage in the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF. Use bull spreads on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Some macro - indicators in October were mixed. The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, but strong inflation data may suppress bond performance. The supply of government bonds will increase next week, and the market sentiment may be affected by the potential bond fund redemption fee regulations [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a defensive strategy and wait and see in the short term. Try to go long on the spread between the current and next - quarter contracts and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has supply pressure in the long - term. The short - term domestic market may face pressure due to losses in crushing profit [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for the far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options [25]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the price trend is downward. Domestically, the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with a long - term weak trend but limited downward space [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within the range for the domestic market. Short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [29]. Oilseed Sector - **Market Situation**: Palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease but remain at a relatively high level. Domestic palm oil supply is abundant. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oilseed market, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term as there is a lack of bullish drivers. The market may have a technical rebound, but the upside is limited [32]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Situation**: The US corn price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The domestic corn price is stable in the northeast and strong in the port area, with potential short - term downward pressure [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips. Go long on the 01 - month domestic corn on dips and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36]. Live Hogs - **Market Situation**: The overall supply pressure of live hogs remains high, although the short - term pressure has slightly eased. The price is expected to face downward pressure [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build a small number of short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - **Market Situation**: Peanut prices are stable in the spot market, and the 01 - month contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the 05 - month contract with a small position and set a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [42]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside of the price is limited [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close the previous short positions and wait and see in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Market Situation**: The new apples are being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is lower than last year, but the market is at a high level with large differences in views [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the high - level price and large differences in views. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Situation**: The picking of cotton is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, but the increase may be lower than expected. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The supply of rebar is expected to increase, and the demand for all steel products has declined. The price is restricted by the supply - demand structure, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider going long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips. Wait and see for options [58][61]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore has also declined. The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the fourth - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented. The price is expected to be adjusted in the short term and has opportunities to go long after a correction [60][63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term. Consider going long after a correction in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for steel in the domestic market is weak. The price is expected to be bearish [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [66]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak. The cost has some support, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reduce previous short positions on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The price of precious metals is affected by both positive and negative factors. The uncertainty of the US government shutdown and economic data affects the price, which is expected to be range - bound [71][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [73]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The US government shutdown affects the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper mines is still tight, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be in short - term volatile consolidation [74][75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The ratio may rebound periodically. Wait and see for options [76]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: The supply of alumina is still in excess, and the market expects production cuts. However, the actual production cuts have not been implemented, and the import pressure remains. The price is in a bottom - grinding stage [81][82]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. If production cuts occur and expand, the price may rebound [82]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The end of the US government shutdown eases market sentiment, and the domestic economic data is stable. The supply - demand of aluminum is tight, and the overseas supply is even more so. The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [86][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long after a correction. Long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [87]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Situation**: The end of the US government shutdown eases market sentiment. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is rising. The demand is stable and improving. The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [90]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The mining end is tight, and the smelting profit is compressed. The export window is open, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. However, the production of new smelters and the export volume are uncertain [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Hold the long SHFE zinc and short LME zinc arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [94]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The supply of lead is expected to increase as the smelting capacity of recycled lead recovers, while the demand is weakening. The price may decline with the increase of social inventory [96]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [96]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of refined nickel is slightly tightened but overall loose. The cost is loosening, and the price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the summary, but the overall view is bearish.

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]