Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean and meal market is expected to be downward - biased due to inventory pressure and uncertain supply [4]. - The sugar market is expected to have the international price in a range - bound oscillation, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger but with limited upward space [13]. - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, affected by the macro - environment and sentiment, and may decline in the short term [19]. - The corn market is expected to have the outer - market corn at the bottom and oscillate, and the domestic corn may gradually establish long - term long positions [26][27]. - The hog market is expected to be weak, with high supply pressure and downward - biased prices [33]. - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong due to rainfall affecting production and quality, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [40]. - The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term, with high supply and general demand, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [47]. - The apple market is expected to have the futures price oscillate slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low excellent fruit rate [57]. - The cotton - yarn market is expected to have the US cotton oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton may oscillate slightly weakly with high selling hedging pressure [67][69]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.43% to 1041 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.14% to 282.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related information**: In October 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 712 million tons, a 60.7% increase from last year. The increase in South American soybeans exported to China will reduce the 9 - 2 - month crushing volume in Brazil and Argentina. UAE's rapeseed imports from July - September 2025 are expected to almost double. As of September 26, domestic soybean inventory increased by 3.63% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory decreased by 4.86% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic analysis**: US soybeans declined slightly due to previous positive factors being fully reflected and the decline of US soybean oil. There is inventory pressure, and the domestic supply is uncertain but the reduction space is limited, so it is expected to be downward - biased [4]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Consider a small - quantity short position in the soybean meal 05 contract, a small - quantity long position in the near - month rapeseed meal contract, M11 - 1 positive spread, sell soybean meal call options, and sell a wide - straddle structure for rapeseed meal [6][7]. Sugar - **Outer - market change**: ICE US raw sugar主力 contract fell 0.15 (- 0.92%) to 16.1 cents/pound, and London white sugar主力 contract fell 0.2 (- 0.04%) to 451.1 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important information**: It is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September will increase by 3.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production will increase by 7.7% year - on - year. As of October 8, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar quantity increased by 39.75 million tons. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the sugar production increased while the sales volume and rate changed [9][10]. - **Logic analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production in the main producing areas is increasing, but the downward space is limited. Domestically, the typhoon may affect the sugarcane production, but the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price [12]. - **Trading strategy**: The international sugar price is likely to oscillate in a range, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger but with limited upward space. Suggest waiting and seeing for spreads and options [13][14]. Oil - **Outer - market situation**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by - 0.56% to 49.97 cents/pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by - 1.04% to 4546 ringgit/ton [15]. - **Related information**: In September, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, inventory increased by 7.20% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% compared to the same period last month. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will drop to about 1.7 billion tons by the end of the year. Brazilian farmers have sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area [16][18]. - **Logic analysis**: In September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased unexpectedly. Domestically, soybean oil may gradually de - stock, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally. Affected by the macro - environment and sentiment, the oil may decline in the short term but is expected to oscillate overall [19]. - **Trading strategy**: The oil may decline in the short term and oscillate overall. Suggest waiting and seeing first, and consider a light - position long position when the price drops significantly. OI 1 - 5 positive spread idea but do not chase high. Wait and see for options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Outer - market change**: CBOT corn futures outer - market declined, and the December主力 contract of US corn fell 1.2% to 414.75 cents/bushel [23]. - **Important information**: The Agricultural Development Bank of China has introduced ten measures to support grain purchase. The average price of wheat in the main producing areas increased. As of October 2, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased. As of October 8, the corn inventory of main processing enterprises increased. On October 13, the purchase price in the northern port was relatively weak, and the corn prices in the Northeast and North China continued to decline [24][25]. - **Logic analysis**: The outer - market US corn is expected to be weak in the short term. Domestically, new - season corn is on the market, and the spot price continues to decline. The 01 corn oscillates at the bottom, and the decline space is relatively small [26]. - **Trading strategy**: The outer - market December corn oscillates at the bottom, consider short - term long positions on dips. Establish a light - position long position in the 01 corn for short - term operations and set a stop - loss. Gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn. Wait and see for spreads and options [27][29][30]. Hog - **Related information**: Hog prices are oscillating downward. It is expected that the planned hog slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in October will increase by 5.48% month - on - month. On October 9, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.5% [33]. - **Logic analysis**: The hog slaughter pressure remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be weak [33]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Suggest short - selling at high points, LH15 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [35]. Peanut - **Important information**: The average price of national peanut kernels decreased slightly. Oil mills' procurement is cautious. After the festival, the peanut oil order market weakened, and the price was stable. Some oil mills have no peanut meal inventory. As of October 9, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 9.59% week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory increased by 1.42% week - on - week [36][37]. - **Logic analysis**: New - season peanuts are on the market, but rainfall affects production and quality. Imports decreased, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 peanut is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the overall production is expected to be the same as last year [38][40]. - **Trading strategy**: The 01 peanut oscillates at the bottom, consider light - position short - term long positions in the 01 and 05 peanuts. Wait and see for spreads. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40][42]. Egg - **Important information**: The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas decreased. In September, the national inventory of laying hens increased, and the monthly output of egg - laying chicks decreased. In the week of October 2, the number of culled laying hens increased, and the average culling age increased. As of October 9, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory in production and circulation links increased. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs and the expected profit per laying hen decreased [44][45][46]. - **Trading logic**: The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term, and the near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly [47]. - **Trading strategy**: Consider short - selling the near - month contract at high points. Wait and see for spreads and options [50][51]. Apple - **Important information**: As of September 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased. In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. During the National Day holiday, new - season apples in Shaanxi and Gansu began to be ordered but not loaded. The new - season apples in Shandong were delayed due to rainfall. The spot price in Shandong was stable, and the profit of storage merchants decreased [53][54][56]. - **Trading logic**: The fruit diameter in some areas of Shaanxi is small, and the late - maturing Fuji is expected to have a low excellent fruit rate. The opening price is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [57]. - **Trading strategy**: It is expected that the apple will oscillate strongly in the short term due to the low expected excellent fruit rate. Wait and see for spreads and options [58][63]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Outer - market influence**: ICE US cotton fell, and the主力 contract fell 0.69 (1.07%) to 63.77 cents/pound [60]. - **Important information**: The spot and pre - sale prices of cotton were slightly adjusted, and textile enterprises' procurement intention was general. The mainstream purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is about 7.0 yuan/kg, and the cottonseed price declined. As of October 3, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton accounted for 6.4% of the annual estimated output, and the inspection progress was 24% slower year - on - year. The drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise [62][65][66]. - **Trading logic**: Sino - US trade frictions have little impact on China's cotton supply but may affect downstream consumption and US cotton exports. In the long - term, it is negative for global cotton consumption [67]. - **Trading strategy**: It is expected that the US cotton will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate slightly weakly. Wait and see for spreads and options [69].

Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index is 109.50, up 0.07 from the next - working - day quote; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.06, up 0.13 [3] - AP01 futures price is 8744, up 111 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 8675, up 153; AP10 is 9175, down 5 [3] - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1144, down 111 from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in major Chinese producing areas is 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons [6] - In August 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume is about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume is 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume is 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - In the previous period, domestic apple transaction prices remained stable. In Shandong, continuous rainfall slowed apple coloring, with little trading at purchase points. In Shaanxi, merchants were actively ordering, and transaction prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the apple ordering price is stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream apple price is stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the apple diameter is small, and continuous rainfall has caused water - cracks in apples. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain slightly stronger in the short term [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Apples are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Group 3: Related Attachments - There are 10 related apple - related charts, including price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volumes in some markets [17][19][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and higher than expected. The demand side is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short term, egg prices are likely to remain weak. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today's average price in the main production areas is 2.7 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas is 3.11 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. The number of remaining trucks in Dongguan parking lot and 1st parking lot is reported. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and the market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [6]. - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - From October 2nd to the week, the national culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, a 3% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of laying hens was 500 days, 2 days more than the previous week [7]. - As of the week of October 9th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,179 tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of the week of October 9th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.5 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.34 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - As of October 2nd, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.3 yuan from the previous week. On October 3rd, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 3.3 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the national price of culled hens has dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.29 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant short - term improvement, egg prices are likely to remain weak, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8268 with a decline of 34. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8488, 8588, and 8448 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 320, 220, and 180 respectively, with Tianjin's basis rising by 10. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 9364 with a decline of 74. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9284, 9364, and 9484 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 80, 0, and 120 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 10022 with a decline of 39. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10342. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong was 320, with increases of 30 and 20 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 236 with a decline of 14; that of palm oil was 140 with a decline of 32; and that of rapeseed oil was 438 with a decline of 21 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1096 with an increase of 40; the OI - Y spread was 1754 with a decline of 5; the OI - P spread was 658 with an increase of 35; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.82 with a decline of 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 182, with a CNF price of 1110.5 for the November shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 815, with a FOB price of 1100 for the November shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 39th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 124.9 million tons (last week: 123.6 million tons, same period last year: 115.6 million tons); that of palm oil was 55.2 million tons (last week: 58.5 million tons, same period last year: 50.6 million tons); and that of rapeseed oil was 58.3 million tons (last week: 58.6 million tons, same period last year: 41.0 million tons) [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 10, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 6.02% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025 (the 39th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons (5.62%) from last week, at a moderately high level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 180. The basis was stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider lightly buying on significant dips. Later, pay attention to Indonesia's B50 policy progress and Malaysia's palm oil output in October [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 114.28 million tons, with an operating rate of 37.04%, a decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period of history. As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 126.51 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons (1.31%) from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis was stable. In the later period, as soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines from the high level, the soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall, the inventory is not in short supply. The spot market lacks highlights, with average trading volume and slow pick - up. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 1.4 million tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%, a decrease from the previous week. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons (2.2%) from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory was continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 800. The market still had the sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with an increase. It is expected that the de - stocking trend in coastal areas will continue. The market expects a possible easing of China - Canada relations, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, but overall, the marginal de - stocking of rapeseed oil supports the price. Continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the 01 spreads of Y - P and OI - Y [14][17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Iron Ore Daily Report dated October 13, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Black Research and Development [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 price is 804.5, up 9.5 from yesterday; DCE05 is 781.0, up 6.5; DCE09 is 759.0, up 6.0 [2] - I01 - I05 spread is 23.5, up 3.0; I05 - I09 is 22.0, up 0.5; I09 - I01 is -45.5, down 3.5 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - Various iron ore spot prices have increased slightly, e.g., PB powder (60.8%) is 782, up 5 from yesterday [2] - The optimal deliverable is Mac powder with a standard - grade equivalent price of 845 [2] - Spot price spreads such as Carajás - PB powder is 135, up 1; Newman - Jimbara is 24, unchanged [2] Group 4: Import Profit and Price Index - Import profits for most iron ore varieties have decreased, e.g., Carajás powder's import profit is 0, down 13 from yesterday [2] - The Platts Iron Ore 62% price is 107.4, up 1.6; 65% is 121.3, up 1.8; 58% is 95.9, up 1.3 [2][4] Group 5: Price Difference and Spread Data - SGX主力 - DCE01 is 9.0, up 1.0; SGX主力 - DCE05 is 11.6, up 1.1; SGX主力 - DCE09 is 14.3, up 1.2 [2][4]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][4] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downward space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuations. [7] - Due to low production, rebar production increased before the holiday, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease, and the export performance remained strong, so the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [7] Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (- 20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (- 20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3250 yuan (- 20). [6] Market Judgement - **Market Situation**: The black metal sector showed differentiation. Steel maintained a weak oscillating trend, while iron ore prices rose. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with speculative trading at low prices being acceptable during the market rebound, but rigid demand was average. Some steel mills reduced production of hot - rolled and rebar, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday, with the inventory increase exceeding previous years and apparent demand dropping rapidly. [7] - **Price Forecast**: The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with limited downward space. Short - term steel prices may be under pressure due to news, but the impact of this tariff may be weaker than the "reciprocal tariff" in April. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. [7] - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Important Information** - In October 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. [8][10] - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a 10.0% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel export was 87.955 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. In September, China imported 548,000 tons of steel, a 9.6% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel import was 4.532 million tons, a 12.6% year - on - year decrease. [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [14][16][18]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5406 | -30 | -254 | 161388 | 58429 | 118193 | -20711 | | SM主力合约 | 5746 | -14 | -102 | 158644 | 32662 | 379265 | 2674 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | 0 | -100 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | -20 | -30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5230 | -50 | -120 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5600 | -20 | -20 | | 72 ...

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the CF01 contract was 13,300, down 25; the CF05 contract was 13,360, down 15; the CF09 contract was 13,530, down 20; the CY01 contract was 19,360, down 15; the CY05 contract was 19,590, up 35; the CY09 contract was 19,745, down 245 [3]. - The CCIndex3128B price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 32; the CY IndexC32S was 20,440, down 20; the Cot A was 0.00 cents/pound, down 76.05; the FCY IndexC33S was 21,302, down 9; the (FC Index):M: arrival price was 0.00, down 73.90; the Indian S - 6 was 55,800, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber was 7,450, up 70; the pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,030, unchanged; the viscose staple fiber was 13,000, unchanged; the viscose yarn R30S was 17,250, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - 5 month cotton spread was - 60, down 10; the 5 - 9 month was - 170, up 5; the 9 - 1 month was 230, up 5; the 1 - 5 month yarn spread was - 230, down 50; the 5 - 9 month was - 155, up 280; the 9 - 1 month was 385, down 230 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,060, up 10; the CY05 - CF05 was 6,230, up 50; the CY09 - CF09 was 6,215, down 225; the 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1,482, up 14; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 625, up 14; the internal - external yarn spread was - 862, down 11 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 269,100 tons, 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 27% slower year - on - year. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 269,100 tons, with a progress of 9.57%, 27% slower year - on - year; Pima cotton inspection had not started. The weekly deliverable ratio was 69.2%, the quarterly was 80.6%, 7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 4 points lower quarter - on - quarter [6]. - In the week of September 18, US upland cotton contracts were 19,500 tons, down 54% week - on - week. The cumulative US upland cotton contracts were 920,600 tons, slightly lower than 1,124,700 tons last year. Due to the US government shutdown, USDA weekly data was not updated [6]. - The IMEA predicted the 2025/26 cotton yield in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 13% decrease from the previous cycle. The sown area was expected to be 1.46 million hectares, a 5.7% reduction. As of October 2, the 2025 cotton processing progress nationwide was about 50% [7]. Trading Logic - During the holiday, as new cotton entered the market, the focus shifted to the opening price. Xinjiang's high cotton yield and low ginner enthusiasm led to no large - scale rush for purchases, with some purchase prices around 6 yuan/kg. With more new cotton on the market, there would be selling - hedging pressure on the futures. The peak season demand was expected to have limited impact on the futures [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to move sideways, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly weaker [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold off [10]. - Options: Hold off [11]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with low - count fabric sales declining. In October, mills had insufficient orders and mainly produced small batches. Affected by macro factors, fabric manufacturers were cautious in pricing. Orders in Xinjiang were okay, while those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were insufficient. Traders had low stocking willingness, and the pure - cotton yarn market's trading center was moving down [11][13]. Group 3: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.5181, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.5%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.1% [15]. - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7609, and the trading volume PCR was 0.9918. Both call and put trading volumes increased [16]. - Options strategy: Hold off [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of L plastic and PP polypropylene markets are generally weak, with fluctuations affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy. For example, factors like new capacity production, changes in production capacity utilization, and tariff policies all impact the market trends of L and PP [1][5][8]. - The global plastic additive market is on an upward track, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029, which is related to the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. - Various policies and events, such as China's export control of rare earths, US - China tariff disputes, and China's petrochemical industry policies, have certain impacts on the plastic and polypropylene markets [1][6][11]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The prices of L2601 contracts and LLDPE in different regions have shown a downward trend in most cases. For example, on October 13, the L2601 contract closed at 7004 points, down 33 points or 0.47%, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 7000 - 7680 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions falling by 10 - 70 yuan/ton [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP2601 contracts and domestic PP market prices have also generally declined. On October 13, the PP2601 contract closed at 6697 points, down 25 points or 0.37%, and the domestic PP market continued to weaken, with a decline of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - **Trade Policy**: On October 9, China legally imposed export controls on some rare earth items, while the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and upgraded software controls on the 10th, leading to China's strong opposition [1]. - **Industry Policy**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added - value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [11]. - **Market Forecast**: From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additive consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, driven by the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. Logical Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: As of last Friday, the new registered L contract warehouse receipts were 66 tons, with a total of 1.28 million tons; the PP contract had no new registered warehouse receipts, with a total of 1.40 million tons. The domestic PE capacity utilization rate increased to 83.9% for 4 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the domestic PP capacity utilization rate increased to 77.7% for 3 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - **Cost and Supply**: Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel in September, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased to 2.827 million tons for 2 consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%, which is negative for the L - PP spread [12]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: For the L main 01 contract, the strategies include holding long positions, waiting and seeing, or trying long positions at appropriate times. For the PP main 01 contract, strategies include holding short positions, trying short positions, or waiting and seeing [2][6][9]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate positions, or wait and see [2][7][9]. - **Options**: Generally, the strategy is to wait and see [2][7][9].