大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 玻璃纯碱调研报告 2025 年 8 月 26 日 青海纯碱调研报告 第一部分 核心观点 1. 青海作为盐、煤、石灰石产地，原材料供应稳定性强、价格波动小。当地多数纯 碱企业自有盐湖及石灰石矿，仅部分未覆盖原材料需外采。据调研，当前核心原材料到厂价 约为：盐 81-96 元/吨，石灰石 56-64 元/吨；煤炭通过新疆或本地长期协议采购，到厂价 415 元/吨。青海纯碱企业生产成本相对稳定，生产成本推测在 800 元/吨上下（具体成本因企业 资源禀赋、生产规模各有差异）。企业在原材料采购与成本控制上自主权较高，其成本波动 风险主要集中于运输费用变化。 2. 青海纯碱企业虽具备显著成本优势，但需承担运输价格波动风险。预计四季度受 季节性因素影响，火运、汽运价格通常上涨，将直接抬升青海纯碱运至主销区的综合成本， 需重点关注青海纯碱价格走势。尤其 10 月之后，冬季西藏铁路完成年度运输指标后，运费 优惠政策将逐步收窄。从当前运价来看，青海至河北地区火运 260 元/吨、汽运 280-300 元 /吨（含税），发往西南地区汽运价格则在 300 元/吨左右；此外，汽运价格存在明显季节性 特征 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - DCE01 decreased from 787.0 to 776.5, a drop of 10.5; DCE05 decreased from 763.0 to 754.0, a drop of 9.0; DCE09 decreased from 806.5 to 797.0, a drop of 9.5 [2] - I01 - I05 decreased from 24.0 to 22.5, a drop of 1.5; I05 - I09 increased from -43.5 to -43.0, an increase of 0.5; I09 - I01 increased from 19.5 to 20.5, an increase of 1.0 [2] Spot Market - Most iron ore spot prices increased, such as PB powder rising from 767 to 780, an increase of 13; Newman powder rising from 764 to 776, an increase of 12 [2] - The optimal delivery product is PB powder, with a standard - product price of 822, 01 - factory - warehouse basis of 27, 05 - factory - warehouse basis of 51, and 09 - factory - warehouse basis of 8 [2] Spot Variety Spread and Import Profit - Some spot variety spreads remained stable, like the card - powder - PB - powder spread at 110, unchanged; the card - powder - Jinbuba spread at 137, unchanged [2] - Import profits of most varieties decreased, such as card powder's import profit dropping from -19 to -23, a decrease of 4; Newman powder's import profit dropping from 4 to -1, a decrease of 6 [2] Index and Spread - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 100.4 to 103.0, an increase of 2.7; the Platts 65% iron ore price increased from 117.9 to 120.5, an increase of 2.7; the Platts 58% iron ore price increased from 88.5 to 91.0, an increase of 2.5 [2] - SGX - DCE01 decreased from 7.7 to 7.5, a decrease of 0.2; SGX - DCE05 remained unchanged at 10.5; SGX - DCE09 decreased from 5.3 to 5.0, a decrease of 0.2 [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3376, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3475, down 7; JD09 closed at 2916, down 35 [3] - 01-05 spread remained unchanged at -99; 05-09 spread increased by 28 to 559; 09-01 spread decreased by 28 to -460 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio decreased by 0.01 to 1.56; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio increased by 0.01 to 1.10 [3] Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.74 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 3.41 yuan, up 1.77 yuan from the previous day [3] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.74 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg prices were mixed today. Beijing's egg prices increased by 5 yuan per box. Egg prices in Northeast China and some other regions increased, while those in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were mostly stable [6] - In July, the national laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4% [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 11 - 14, the national main production area culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 11 - 14, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 4 - 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8] - As of August 11 - 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was -0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply - side pressure is still obvious. The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years. The outflow of cold - storage eggs has put pressure on prices. The egg prices in the peak season have not increased but decreased. Without large - scale over - culling, the short - selling logic holds [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting at high prices [11] - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11] - Options: Sell call options [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, with the approaching of the 09 contract delivery month, the market follows the near - month delivery logic, and the far - month price adjusts accordingly. The macro - driving force weakens, and the delivery logic becomes more prominent. The supply is increasing, but the increase in upstream inventory is not obvious due to manufacturers fulfilling previous orders, and the spot price remains stable. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. - For glass, the near - month contracts are weaker due to delivery and spot price cuts, showing a reverse spread trend. The far - month has expectations of cold repair and rush - work, remaining relatively stable in weakness. The supply is stable, the downstream replenishment sentiment has marginally improved after price cuts, but the overall situation needs further observation. The inventory has increased slightly, and the enterprise profit has weakened, with the glass expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (1.3%). The supply was affected by the resumption of Inner Mongolia Chemical and Xuzhou Fengcheng devices and the reduction of Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical. It is expected that Qinghai Wucai may have maintenance next week, and the weekly output is expected to be 730,000 tons. The theoretical profit of soda ash has decreased [7]. - The soda ash plant inventory continued to accumulate to 1.911 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons, with light and heavy alkalis both accumulating. The social inventory increased by 6.4% to 496,000 tons [13]. 3.1.2 Demand - The apparent demand for soda ash this week was 754,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3%. The demand for heavy alkali decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while that for light alkali increased by 15.2% week - on - week. Manufacturers are fulfilling previous orders, and the sales pressure is not large [10]. 3.1.3 Market Performance - This week, soda ash increased in position and accelerated its decline, leading the decline weekly. With the approaching of the 09 contract delivery month, the market follows the near - month delivery logic, and the far - month price adjusts accordingly [14]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 159,600 tons, remaining stable week - on - week. The profit of float glass with different fuels has decreased, but the supply has not reached the cold - repair loss area, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.2.2 Demand - After the price cut, the downstream replenishment sentiment has marginally improved, but the actual demand growth is limited. As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53% [21]. 3.2.3 Market Performance - This week, glass led the decline. The near - month contracts were affected by delivery and spot price cuts and weakened, showing a reverse spread trend. The far - month has expectations of cold repair and rush - work, remaining relatively stable in weakness [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may correct, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 is 8456 with a decline of 32. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8656, 8796, and 8586 respectively, and the basis and their changes vary. The closing price of palm oil 2601 is 9500 with a decline of 82, and the spot prices and basis in different regions also have corresponding values and changes. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2601 is 9821 with a decline of 70, and the spot prices and basis in different regions are presented as well [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 300 with a decline of 8; for palm oil, it is 262 with a decline of 30; for rapeseed oil, it is 167 with a decline of 7 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1044 with an increase of 50, the OI - Y spread is 1365 with a decline of 38, the OI - P spread is 321 with an increase of 12, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.74 with an increase of 0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's Malaysian & Indonesian盘面利润 is - 178, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1075 with a盘面利润 of - 751 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 109.4 tons (compared with 118.6 tons last week and 114.3 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 58.2 tons (compared with 61.7 tons last week and 59.4 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 64.6 tons (compared with 66.0 tons last week and 42.2 tons last year) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.21 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons (5.70%) from last week, at a slightly above - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation decreased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there were rumors of 2 far - month vessel purchases. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 227 tons, and the operating rate was 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 118.6 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons (3.79%) from last week, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the three - year average for the same period. The basis was stable [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 600. There were rumors of near - month rapeseed wash sales. The spot market was sluggish, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, expect the oil prices to correct due to insufficient upward momentum, but the correction range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction [11] - **Options Strategy**: On the sidelines [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - There are 8 figures including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The actual sugar production in Brazil is currently lower than expected, and the final output remains uncertain. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. The domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is greatly affected by the international market and is expected to follow the trend of external sugar, with prices fluctuating slightly within a range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles can be considered [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,678, down 42 (-0.73%); SR01 closed at 5,632, down 56 (-0.98%); SR05 closed at 5,599, down 47 (-0.83%). The trading volume of SR01 increased by 78,039, and its open interest decreased by 1,534 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan were reported. The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions ranged from 227 to 692 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 33, up 9; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 79, up 5; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 46, up 14 [5]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, along with their spreads to the Liuzhou and Rizhao spot prices and the futures price [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: - Brazil exported 281.39 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of August 2025, a 0.27% increase from the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 17.58 million tons [7]. - The quotes of processing sugar in various regions such as Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong remained unchanged, with general trading volume [8]. - As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403, short positions increased by 4,227, and the net short position increased by 15,630 [10]. - **Logical Analysis**: - Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected due to low cane crushing volume and sugar content. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways [11]. - Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is arriving, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price and fluctuate slightly in the short - term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles [14]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, sugar basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][24][25][28][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. The future trend of US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term, but the upward space is relatively limited. The trading strategy for options is to sell put options, and for arbitrage, it is to wait and see [8][9][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 20, and the closing price of CY01 increased by 5, CY05 remained unchanged, and CY09 decreased by 35. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract also had corresponding changes. For example, the trading volume of CF01 decreased by 94,563, and the open interest increased by 3,455 [3] - **Spot Price**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 91; the CY IndexC32S price was 20,760, up 20. The Cot A price was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; the FCY IndexC33S price was 21,880, down 11. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [3] - **Spreads**: In cotton spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 45 with no change, the 5 - 9 month spread was 275 with no change, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 320 with no change. In yarn spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 235, up 5, the 5 - 9 month spread was 315, up 35, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 80, down 40. The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,060, up 25, and the 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1,437, up 99 [3] Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of August 23, Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 60.3%, up 11.4 percentage points week - on - week, 15.8% slower than last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 24, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 81%, 7 percentage points slower than last year and 6 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 20%, the same as last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The excellent and good rate was 55%, 15 percentage points higher than last year and 11 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6] - As of August 25, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.8 million tons, down 20% year - on - year. The cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1675 million tons, down 4% year - on - year. The CAI cumulative market volume reached 98% of the 24/25 season forecast balance sheet output, the same as last year [7] - In 2025, the total volume of the sliding - scale duty processing trade quota for cotton imports is 200,000 tons, and it will be issued on a contract - based application basis [7] - **Trading Logic**: After the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and the short - term tariff impact may weaken. China's anti - involution policies have a certain positive impact on commodities. On the supply side, cotton supply is still tight, and whether to issue additional sliding - scale duty quotas in the future will be the main influencing factor. On the demand side, demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. If demand is lower than expected, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton [8] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [12] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Recently, the transaction in the pure cotton yarn market is okay, and spinning mills are selling at reasonable prices to reduce inventory, but there is still resistance to price increases. The market is worried about large - scale spinning mills' low - price promotions in early September, and the yarn price is expected to be stable in the short - term [12] - The price of the pure cotton grey fabric market is stable with a weak trend, the overall transaction atmosphere is still weak, and fabric mills are mainly digesting inventory. Most fabric mills still have large inventory pressures, and the order improvement is not sustainable. The dyeing factory's order scheduling recovery is limited and weaker than in previous years [12] Options - **Volatility**: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.5%, CF601 - P - 13600 was 9.8%, and CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.1% [14] - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7560, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.6197. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [15][16] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff internal - external cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [17][24][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Container Shipping**: The EC futures market shows a weak shock, and the spot freight rate in September is in a rapid decline channel. The tariff pressure in the second half of the year is expected to reduce the support for freight rates, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify. The recommended trading strategies are short - term bearish shock for single - side trading and rolling operation of reverse spread for 10 - 12 contracts [5][7][10]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The dry bulk freight index increased on August 22. The freight rate of Capesize ships increased, and the Far East Dry Bulk Index (FDI) also rose on August 25. The freight rate of large - scale ships is expected to recover in the short term, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to be slightly stronger in shock [17][18]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The crude oil market and the refined oil market have different trends. The crude oil market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, which supports the increase of freight rates, while the refined oil market is relatively stable with weak demand. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on the Middle East route in September, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Futures Market**: On August 26, EC2510 closed at 1318.9 points, down 2.88% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1990.2 points on Monday after the market, down 8.7% month - on - month. The final delivery settlement price of EC2508 was 2135.28 points [5]. - **Spot Market**: In September, the spot freight rate is in a rapid decline channel, and the loading rate of shipping companies has decreased. MSK's offer for Shanghai - Rotterdam in WK37 is 1900 US dollars/FEU, down 200 US dollars from last week. The freight rates of other shipping companies also show a downward trend [7]. - **Tariff Impact**: The US plans to complete the investigation of adding furniture import tariffs within 50 days. In 2024, the container volume of furniture, home furnishings and lighting imported by the US accounted for 13% of the total imports. If the tariff is implemented, it will bring cost pressure to major exporting countries such as China and Vietnam [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading is recommended to be bearish in shock, and the valuation center of the October contract is expected to be revised down. For arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct reverse spread rolling operation for the 10 - 12 contracts [10]. Industry News - The US Vice - President mentioned that the US currently imposes a 54% tariff on China and has multiple dialogues with the Chinese government to end the trade war. The US may finalize a trade agreement with South Korea. Trump claims to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is considered appropriate [11][12]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Trump said it is difficult to deal with Netanyahu, and an outcome is expected in 2 - 3 weeks. Iran will start a new round of talks with the UK, France and Germany. The leader of Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and Israel is ready to support Lebanon in disarming Hezbollah [13][14][15]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On August 22, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 2.69% to 1944 points. The Capesize ship freight index rose about 3.33% to 2793 points, the Panamax ship freight index rose 2.97% to 1770 points, and the Supramax ship freight index rose 1.35% to 1424 points. On August 25, the Far East Dry Bulk Index (FDI) reported 1316.81 points for the comprehensive index, up 4.7% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On August 22, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.44 US dollars/ton, up 0.73% month - on - month, and the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.40 US dollars/ton, up 7.37% month - on - month. The weekly freight rate data shows that the freight rates of some routes have increased or decreased [19]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 18 to 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 90.8 tons month - on - month. In the fourth week of August 2025, the cumulative shipment of soybeans in Brazil was 725.78 million tons, and the cumulative shipment of corn was 496.04 million tons [20]. - **Incident Impact**: An accident occurred at the Simfer mine in Guinea, and all activities at the mine have been suspended. The accident may affect the project progress, but the project is not expected to stop for a long time [21]. Industry News - In July 2025, India's coal imports decreased, with different demands for different types of coal. The free trade agreement negotiation between Canada and the South American Common Market will restart. The Brazilian court overturned the decision of the antitrust regulatory agency to suspend the "soybean fallow agreement" [24][25]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On August 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1042, up 1.26% month - on - month and 16.16% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 1.28% year - on - year [26][27]. - **Market Trend**: The crude oil market is in an upward trend, with increasing demand for VLCC and Suezmax, and a tight supply - demand pattern supports the increase of freight rates. The refined oil market is relatively stable, with weak demand and sufficient supply of some ship types, and the freight rate maintains a shock trend [27]. Industry News - India will buy oil from the most profitable places, including Russia. The continuous rebound of oil prices is due to geopolitical disturbances and supply interruption risks. The market continues to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine issue, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [28].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pig Daily Report - August 26, 2025" [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report by the Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of the pig market continues to increase, and prices are gradually falling. However, due to the decline in the存栏 of ordinary farmers, the overall supply change is relatively limited, and the deep - fall space is also limited [4][6] - The pig futures market has seen an increase in the decline, and the short - term stabilization effect is limited. The near - month contract has more obvious downward pressure, but the further decline power is also general. The far - month contract is expected to move in a low - level oscillation with limited deep - fall space [6] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of pigs is 13.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions have declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of all contracts have decreased. For example, LH01 decreased by 40 to 14,200, and LH09 decreased by 130 to 13,665 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices decreased from 363 to 347, and sow prices decreased from 1612 to 1599 [4] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising increased by 5.10 to 33.95, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased by 5.25 to - 151.80 [4] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased by 135 to 140,338 [4] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread increased by 125 to 505, LH9 - 1 spread decreased by 90 to - 535, etc. [4] Size Pig Spreads - The spreads between different sizes of pigs have all increased [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on far - month contracts at low prices [7] - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage [7] - Options: Sell far - month put options [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall pressure in the soybean complex market persists, and the price center of the soybean complex is expected to move downward. The domestic soybean meal market has many disturbing factors and an unclear future direction, but there is support at the bottom. The rapeseed meal market is likely to oscillate, with the inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal potentially strengthening, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expected to oscillate at a low level. [5][9] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract on dips, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options. [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded slightly. The crop inspection results were mixed, and the rebound of US soybean oil also supported the market. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures declined. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal continued to decline, while that of rapeseed meal oscillated. [4] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Market - The old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans is bullish, with lower ending stocks. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a significant reduction in planted area. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited. [5] - The supply - demand of South American old - crop soybeans is relatively loose, with an expected increase in production and ending stocks or exports. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations. [5] - The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase in soybean crushing in major producing areas and only a slight increase in imports by major importing countries. [5] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is weakening, the oil - mill operating rate is decreasing, and the supply pressure still exists. [7] 3.3 Macroeconomics - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is worried about supply uncertainty. Although the overall international trade uncertainty remains high, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is mainly due to the improvement of crushing margins. There is support at the bottom due to unclear future supply. The rapeseed meal market volatility has decreased, and the market focuses on domestic supply - demand. The demand is weak, but there will be bullish factors in the medium - term. [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Recommend going long on the 05 contract on dips. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread. - Options: Buy call options. [10]