Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] IM Futures Market Summary - The main contract of IM rose 1.44% to close at 7,412.2 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 309,362 lots, an increase of 31,645 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 399,769 lots, an increase of 8,727 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 65.53 points, a decrease of 51.19 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -12.41% [5]. Contract Details | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,477.73 | 1.56% | 40,846 | 25% | 66.09 billion | 25% | - | - | - | | IM2509 | 7,412.20 | 1.27% | 202,867 | 9% | 30.12 billion | 11% | 207,228 | -200 | 3.69 billion | | IM2510 | 7,365.00 | 1.27% | 9,039 | 38% | 1.33 billion | 41% | 13,904 | 3,341 | 250 million | | IM2512 | 7,262.00 | 1.44% | 69,077 | 15% | 10.04 billion | 18% | 121,766 | 3,973 | 2.12 billion | | IM2603 | 7,108.00 | 1.40% | 28,379 | 17% | 4.04 billion | 19% | 56,871 | 1,613 | 970 million | [4] Main Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) [18]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Yide Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), and Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) [18]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotou Futures (on behalf of clients), and Morgan Stanley (on behalf of clients) [18]. IF Futures Market Summary - The main contract of IF rose 2.39% to close at 4,474.6 points [23]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 180,751 lots, an increase of 40,615 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 289,604 lots, an increase of 12,487 lots from the previous day [24]. - The main contract of IF was at a premium of 5.38 points, a decrease of 10.62 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was 1.69% [24]. Contract Details | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,469.22 | 2.08% | 35,809 | 23% | 82.37 billion | 22% | - | - | - | | IF2509 | 4,474.60 | 2.29% | 118,828 | 26% | 15.84 billion | 29% | 165,246 | 4,048 | 2.66 billion | | IF2510 | 4,471.60 | 2.34% | 5,520 | 43% | 730 million | 47% | 6,207 | 1,144 | 100 million | | IF2512 | 4,457.40 | 2.39% | 43,108 | 34% | 5.72 billion | 37% | 90,612 | 4,478 | 1.45 billion | | IF2603 | 4,442.60 | 2.50% | 13,295 | 40% | 1.76 billion | 44% | 27,539 | 2,817 | 440 million | [23] Main Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) [37]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) [37]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotou Futures (on behalf of clients), and Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) [37]. IC Futures Market Summary - The main contract of IC rose 1.83% to close at 6,909.6 points [41]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 148,122 lots, an increase of 19,543 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 244,555 lots, an increase of 10,952 lots from the previous day [42]. - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 42.3 points, a decrease of 29.85 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -8.59% [42]. Contract Details | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 6,951.90 | 1.89% | 33,383 | 30% | 57.49 billion | 29% | - | - | - | | IC2509 | 6,909.60 | 1.80% | 93,555 | 14% | 12.89 billion | 17% | 127,766 | 3,746 | 2.12 billion | | IC2510 | 6,876.80 | 1.87% | 4,282 | 37% | 590 million | 40% | 6,410 | 1,340 | 110 million | | IC2512 | 6,785.00 | 1.83% | 36,047 | 12% | 4.88 billion | 14% | 79,235 | 3,453 | 1.29 billion | | IC2603 | 6,668.80 | 2.00% | 14,238 | 26% | 1.89 billion | 29% | 31,144 | 2,413 | 500 million | [41] Main Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) [52]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients), and Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) [52]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotou Futures (on behalf of clients), and Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) [52]. IH Futures Market Summary - The main contract of IH rose 2.13% to close at 2,993 points [57]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 89,047 lots, an increase of 15,585 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 120,186 lots, an increase of 6,671 lots from the previous day [57]. - The main contract of IH was at a premium of 3.15 points, a decrease of 6.24 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was 0.71% [58]. Contract Details | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,989.85 | 2.09% | 8,636 | 27% | 23.13 billion | 28% | - | - | - | | IH2509 | 2,992.00 | 2.14% | 61,498 | 18% | 5.48 billion | 21% | 78,193 | 2,017 | 840 million | | IH2510 | 2,993.00 | 2.22% | 2,675 | 20% | 240 million | 23% | 2,784 | 601 | 30 million | | IH2512 | 2,993.40 | 2.13% | 19,314 | 24% | 1.72 billion | 27% | 30,851 | 2,989 | 330 million | | IH2603 | 2,997.80 | 2.22% | 5,560 | 48% | 500 million | 51% | 8,358 | 1,064 | 90 million | [57] Main Seats - The top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) [69]. - The top five seats in terms of long positions were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) [69]. - The top five seats in terms of short positions were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), GF Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), and Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) [69].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, with support from demand recovery, high iron - water output, and strong steel exports, but also facing pressure from potential iron - water production cuts and inventory accumulation [4]. - The double - coking market is expected to run strongly, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][12]. - The iron ore price is likely to oscillate in the short term, as the factors driving significant price increases are weakening, and the market may focus on the rapid decline in terminal steel demand [14][15]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to shift to bottom - oscillating in the short term after the over - valuation risk is largely released [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last weekend, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3040 yuan/ton. The initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. As of the end of July, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai and Beijing decreased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector rebounded slightly on the night of the 22nd. Steel production resumed last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was still strong. With the approaching parade, iron - water production is expected to decrease, and steel prices will face short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Intervene in positive spreads on dips and hold; Options: Wait and see [7][8]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is open to interest - rate cuts. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.25%, and the daily average iron - water output increased. The prices of coke and coking coal were provided [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the coal mine accident in Fujian, national coal mine safety work is expected to be tightened, restricting the recovery of coal mine capacity utilization. The supply and demand of double - coking are currently balanced, and the futures price of coking coal has corrected. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Run strongly, buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On August 22, Powell signaled possible policy adjustments and interest - rate cuts. The prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port increased, and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract was 38 [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price rose by 2.08% on Friday night due to interest - rate cut expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments of mainstream mines have increased year - on - year in the past month, with differences between Australia and Brazil. The shipments of non - mainstream mines in August are expected to continue to contribute to the increase. The growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down in July, suppressing terminal steel demand. The short - term iron ore price will oscillate [14][15]. - **Trading Strategies**: No specific strategies provided other than the analyst's note that the views are for reference only [17]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: The manganese ore inventory decreased in total, with different changes in different ports. The transaction prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were provided [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to increase slightly this week, but the growth rate slowed down. The iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the apparent demand for steel rebounded. The approaching parade may cause short - term demand shocks. The cost is relatively stable. After the futures price dropped, the over - valuation risk was largely released, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [18][21]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom in the short term; Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from spot - futures positive spreads; Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may experience a limited - range correction. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for price corrections to go long at low prices. The YP01 spread may rebound in the short term, and holders of short YP spreads can also consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. The P15 spread can be considered to be widened after a correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8488 with a rise of 30. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8678, 8828, and 8608 respectively, with basis spreads of 340, 190, and 120. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 9582 with a fall of 10. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9562, 9612, and 9702 respectively, with basis spreads of - 20, 30, and 120. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9891 with a rise of 1. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10031, 9911 respectively, with basis spreads of 140 and 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 308, 292, and 174 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 6, and - 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 1094 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1403 with a fall of 29, the OI - P spread was 309 with a rise of 11, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.72 with a fall of 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 65 for the 10 - month shipment, with a CNF price of 1127. The Rotterdam - sourced rapeseed oil had a 10 - month shipment FOB price of 1075 and a盘面 profit of - 754 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (2025 Week 33)**: Soybean oil inventory was 114.3 million tons, up from 113.8 million tons last week and 109.6 million tons last year. Palm oil inventory was 61.7 million tons, up from 60.0 million tons last week and 59.8 million tons last year. Rapeseed oil inventory was 66.0 million tons, down from 67.2 million tons last week but up from 42.6 million tons last year [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1141661 tons, a 10.9% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a 5.70% decrease from last week, at a slightly above - average level in historical terms. The origin's quotation decreased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a reported long - term forward purchase. The spot market was stable, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 118.6 million tons, a 3.79% increase from last week, slightly lower than the historical average but higher than the three - year average. The basis was stable. The short - term upward momentum of the oil market was insufficient, and soybean oil was more resistant to decline [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week, still at a high level in historical terms but with continuous marginal inventory reduction. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 600. There were reports of near - term rapeseed contract cancellations. The spot market trading was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Short - term, the oil prices are expected to correct with limited decline. Long - position holders can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, and those without positions can wait for price corrections to go long at low prices [11]. - **Arbitrage**: The YP01 spread may rebound in the short term, and holders of short YP spreads can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. The P15 spread can be considered to be widened after a correction [11]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the 1 - 5 monthly spreads and 01 - contract cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, showing the historical trends from 2016 - 2025 [15][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side pressure in the egg market is significant. With the in - production egg - laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years and the outflow of cold - stored eggs, the egg price has not risen during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds, and short - selling strategies can be considered [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3383, down 51 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3482, down 30; JD09 closed at 2951, up 31 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 99, down 21; the 05 - 09 spread was 531, down 61; the 09 - 01 spread was - 432, up 82 [3]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.34, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.22, down 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.96, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6]. - **Eliminated Chicken Prices**: The average price of eliminated chickens was 4.72 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [3][9]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2371 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3102 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.59 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per feather of egg - laying hens was 1.77 yuan, up 0.29 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices were temporarily stable, with prices in most regions remaining unchanged and some showing minor fluctuations. Egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with normal sales [6]. - **In - production Egg - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The estimated inventory in August, September, October, and November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick Output**: In July, the monthly output of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling**: In the week of August 14, the culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply - side pressure is significant, and the in - production inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years. The outflow of cold - stored eggs has put pressure on prices, resulting in falling egg prices during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling at high prices [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Short the near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long the far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11]. - **Options**: Sell call options [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market inventory of apples is low, and the market demand is in the off - season, with general spot sales. The production of new - season apples is expected to change little compared to this season. The recent weakening of early - maturing apple prices puts pressure on the market, but the prices of high - quality Gala apples are performing well. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 6.86, up 0.04 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8054, up 36; AP05 at 8029, up 24; AP10 at 8141, up 47. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increasing by 12 and AP05 - AP10 decreasing by 23 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts changed. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 36, and Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 decreased by 47 [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 46.01 tons, a decrease of 7.58 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4]. - **Customs Data**: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 1.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73% and a year - on - year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.76% [6]. - **Market Conditions**: The apple market in the producing areas was stable last Friday. The cold - storage shipping speed in Shandong was slow, while the early - maturing apple market in the northwest was generally good. The prices of high - quality goods were stable, while the prices of low - quality and small fruits declined. The overall market arrival volume was okay, and the profit margin of Gala apples was average [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream prices of apples in Qixia, Shandong were stable. The prices of different grades and types of apples varied, and the procurement enthusiasm of merchants was average, with low trading volume [7]. Trading Logic - The spot market has low inventory and is in the off - season, with general sales. The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season. The weakening of early - maturing apple prices pressures the market, but high - quality Gala apple prices are good, so the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate widely [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Related Attachments - There are 10 figures in total, including the prices of different apple varieties, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the whole country, and the cold - storage outbound volume of apples in the whole country [14][17][21][23][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector rose today due to the relaxation of Shanghai's housing market policies and news of coal mine safety inspections, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. Steel spot trading was average, mainly at low prices. - Last week, steel production resumed. Rebar production continued to decline while hot - rolled coil production increased. The overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. - Recently, steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was still strong. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom. - Currently, steel demand has shown some improvement. High hot - metal production and strong steel exports support steel prices. As the military parade approaches, hot - metal production is expected to decline in the second half of next week, alleviating the supply pressure of steel. - The recent coal mine accident in Fujian has raised market expectations of coal mine production cuts. The current futures price has fallen to a level close to that before the "anti - involution" impact, so steel prices may be strongly supported before the military parade with limited downside space. - However, coal consumption will decline after August, blast furnaces may resume production quickly, and the steel fundamentals will continue to deteriorate. If the expectation of coal mine production cuts fails, steel prices will still face pressure after the military parade. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand for steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 31 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and 29 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads and profits of different contracts also changed. For example, the 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 decreased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing, Shandong, and other regions increased. The cheapest delivery product was 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. For example, the profit of Shanghai - Nanjing rebar remained unchanged, while the profit of Shandong rebar decreased by 72 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton, 28 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads and profits of different contracts changed. For example, the 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 decreased by 21 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and other regions increased. The cheapest delivery product was 3420 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. For example, the profit of Shanghai - Tianjin hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, while the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 16 yuan/ton [3]. Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye was 3250 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan (+20) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to gradually close out long - short positions in rebar. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Important Information** - On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax. - On August 25, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Participating enterprises decided to raise the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 75 yuan/ton starting from 0:00 on August 26 [9][10]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, spreads, and profits of different contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions over different time periods, including basis, price differences between contracts, and cash profits [13].

Group 1: Market Information - SF主力合约收盘价5680，日变动38，周变动 -200，成交量200580，日变化53577，持仓量227550，日变化 -2948；SM主力合约收盘价5898，日变动66，周变动 -128，成交量227280，日变化42416，持仓量300427，日变化 -2245 [4] - 72%FeSi内蒙现货价格5370，日变动0，周变动 -180；72%FeSi宁夏现货价格5380，日变动0，周变动 -220等；硅锰6517内蒙现货价格5750，日变动0，周变动 -70；硅锰6517宁夏现货价格5620，日变动70，周变动 -230等 [4] - 硅铁内蒙 - 主力基差 -310，日变动 -38，周变动20；锰硅内蒙 - 主力基差 -148，日变动 -66，周变动58等；SF - SM价差 -218，日变动 -28，周变动 -72 [4] - 锰矿（天津）澳块当日40.5，日变动0，周变动 -0.2；南非半碳酸当日34，日变动 -0.5，周变动 -0.8等；兰炭小料陕西当日650，日变动20，周变动20；宁夏当日685，日变动0，周变动0等 [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - 8月25日，铁合金期货价格小幅上涨，硅铁主力合约收盘5680，上涨0.67%，持仓减少2948手；锰硅主力合约收盘5898，上涨1.13%，持仓减少2245手 [6] - 硅铁25日现货价格稳中偏弱，部分区域现货上涨50元/吨；供应端上周产量继续小幅增加，但增幅放缓；需求端样本钢材产量维持高位，对原料需求有支撑；期货价格临近部分产区成本，高升水风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主 [6] - 锰硅25日锰矿现货稳中偏弱，天津港半碳酸下跌0.5元/吨度，锰硅现货稳中偏强，部分区域现货上涨70元/吨；供应端上周产量增幅放缓；需求端螺纹样本表需小幅回升，未形成下行趋势；当前价格下高升水风险大幅释放，预计底部震荡为主 [6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - 单边：期货价格临近部分产区成本，高升水风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主 [7] - 套利：期现正套逐步止盈 [7] - 期权：逢高卖出跨式期权组合 [7] Group 4: Important Information - Mysteel煤焦：邢台市场焦炭价格计划提涨，捣固湿熄焦上调50元/吨、捣固干熄焦上调55元/吨，调整后捣固准一干熄报价1675元/吨，出厂价现金含税，自8月26日0时起执行 [8] - 上海6部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，明确进一步调减住房限购政策，符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数，成年单身人士按居民家庭执行住房限购政策 [8] Group 5: Cost and Profit - 硅铁青海生产成本5457元/吨，利润 -157元/吨；甘肃生产成本5609元/吨，利润 -309元/吨 [16] - 硅锰内蒙生产成本5831元/吨，利润 -81元/吨；宁夏生产成本5939元/吨，利润 -339元/吨等 [21]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 联系方式： 白糖日报 liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,720 | -6 | -0.10% | 6,005 | -145 | 14,926 | -3217 | | SR01 | | 5,688 | 18 | 0.32% | 133,089 | -2405 | 367,664 | 5745 | | SR05 | | 5,646 | 15 | 0.27% | 3,371 | 24 | 28,556 | 250 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 6030 | 5905 | 6230 | 5970 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn 12 - contract rebounded above 400 cents per bushel due to interest - rate cut expectations and potential future yield reduction. Domestic corn spot prices continued to decline with factors like continuous corn auctions, high 09 - contract warehouse receipts, reduced domestic planting costs, and the upcoming arrival of new - season corn. The market expects that North China corn prices may fall below 2,200 yuan per ton in October. The 01 - contract of corn is in a bottom - oscillating state, with short - term oscillations around 2,150 yuan per ton. Starch factory operating rates are falling, downstream demand is weak, and starch inventories are increasing. The prices of both corn and starch are dropping, and starch factories are still suffering large losses. It is expected that the operating rates of North China starch enterprises will decline, and North China starch prices will continue to fall with the arrival of new corn [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn stood above 400 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at this level due to interest - rate cut expectations and potential yield reduction. Corn auctions are ongoing, and new - season corn will be on the market in September. The market anticipates that Shandong corn prices may briefly fall below 2,200 yuan per ton when North China corn is in large - scale supply in mid - October. Currently, corn warehouse receipts are high, and deep - processing enterprises have long - term losses, so corn spot prices are expected to continue to decline. Although new - season corn planting costs have decreased, farmers may be reluctant to sell, and the 01 - contract of corn is expected to have further downward space. Trading should follow seasonal patterns [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider buying US corn 12 when it is below 400 cents per bushel and take a small - position short - term long position on the 01 - contract of corn around 2,150 yuan per ton. For arbitrage, focus on the opportunity to widen the spread between the 01 - and 11 - contracts of corn and starch. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Market - **USDA Report**: The August USDA report on US corn showed that there were no changes in planted area, harvested area, and yield for the 24/25 season compared to the previous report, but there were increases in the 25/26 season. Beginning stocks decreased, production increased, and the ending stocks and stock - to - consumption ratio also changed. The average predicted price decreased [8]. - **Market Factors**: The US corn 12 - contract rebounded above 400 cents per bushel due to strong Fed interest - rate cut expectations and potential future yield reduction. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has expanded. As of August 14, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.05 million tons, with a cumulative export of 64.22 million tons. The export volume to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In July, the imported corn volume was 60,000 tons, and from January to July, it was 840,000 tons, compared with 1.213 million tons in the same period last year [8][9]. - **Non - commercial and Ethanol Data**: As of August 19, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased to 105,000 lots, and US ethanol production declined. The US corn 12 - contract is expected to have strong support at 400 cents per bushel [14]. Domestic Market - **Inventory and Consumption**: Feed enterprise corn inventories decreased compared to the same period last year. As of August 21, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week and a 0.55% decrease from the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption declined. In the 34th week of 2025 (August 17 - 23), 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1362 million tons of corn, 4,500 tons less than the previous week. Deep - processing inventories decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. As of August 20, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.147 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from the previous week [18][19]. - **Port Inventories**: North - port corn inventories and south - port grain inventories decreased. As of August 15, the corn inventory at the four north ports was 1.511 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 263,000 tons, and the shipping volume at the four ports that week was 329,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 82,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic - trade corn inventory was 669,000 tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 2,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 483,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 376,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.53 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [22]. Starch Market - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: The deep - processing operating rate decreased. From August 17 - 22, the national corn processing volume was 549,000 tons, and the starch production was 270,600 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 52.3%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous week. With the decline in North China corn spot prices, stable starch spot prices, and strong by - product prices, the profit losses of starch factories narrowed. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 78 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan from the previous week, and in Shandong, it was - 110 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous week. Downstream提货量 decreased, the operating rate declined, and starch inventories increased. As of August 20, the corn starch inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.53% increase, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 25.6% year - on - year increase [25]. Substitute Market - **Wheat Prices**: North China wheat arrival prices were basically stable at 2,450 yuan per ton. The price spread between wheat and corn widened, North China corn prices declined while Northeast corn prices were stable, the price spread between North China and Northeast corn narrowed, and the price spread between North China corn and the 09 - contract of corn increased [31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Livestock and Poultry Market - **Pig Market**: From August 7 - 14, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from the previous week [41]. - **Poultry Market**: From August 14 - 21, the white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.91 yuan per bird, compared with 1.78 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, compared with 0.53 yuan per catty last week [47]. Deep - processing Downstream Market - **Starch Sugar and Paper Mills**: This week, the F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.87%, an increase of 0.25% from the previous week, and the malt syrup operating rate was 49.18%, an increase of 1.85% from the previous week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 63.97%, an increase of 2.19% from the previous week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 69.62%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week [50]. Price and Spread Data - **Commodity Prices**: Data on prices such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, and price spreads between wheat and corn, sorghum and corn were presented, as well as data on the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch contracts [52][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term palm oil: 7 - month Malaysia palm oil inventory accumulation was less than expected, and it is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in August. Indonesia's production increased significantly in June, but the inventory remained low, and the price was firm. The short - term market may experience a callback due to weakened sentiment, but the callback range is expected to be limited, maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy [4][27]. - Short - term soybean oil: The US SRE application ruling has limited impact on the demand for biofuels. August is the critical growth period for US soybean pod setting. Weather conditions in August need to be closely monitored. If the weather is unfavorable, there is a risk of yield decline. There are rumors of domestic soybean oil exports. Supported by factors such as US biodiesel, soybean oil has strong support at the bottom and is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [4][22][27]. - Short - term rapeseed oil: The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, with a supply - exceeding - demand pattern continuing. However, rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing slightly, and there is still support at the bottom [4][25][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Core Events & Market Review - Palm oil production and inventory: SPPOMA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 0.3% month - on - month, while MPOA estimates a 3% increase. Gapki data shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in June increased by 16% to 529 million tons, and inventory decreased to 253 million tons [4][8][12]. - US SRE application ruling: Among 175 SRE applications, 63 (36%) got full exemption, 77 (44%) got partial exemption, 28 (16%) were rejected, and 7 (4%) did not meet the exemption conditions. The total SRE exemption volume from 2016 - 2024 reached 5.34 billion RIN [13]. 3.2 International Market - Malaysia palm oil: It is estimated that the production in August will be around 1.88 million tons. The export in August was average, and the inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 - 2.3 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the later decline space may be limited [8]. - Indonesia palm oil: The production in June increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decrease. The annual production is expected to increase by more than 2 million tons year - on - year. The CPO tender price is oscillating strongly, and the inventory is expected to remain below 3 million tons in the next few months [12]. 3.3 Domestic Market - Domestic soybean oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 1.1427 million tons, with a slight increase. The import volume of soybeans in August and September is expected to be 10 million tons per month on average, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. However, with factors such as reduced soybean arrivals and export rumors, there may be a slight inventory reduction later. Supported by US biodiesel, it is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [22]. - Domestic palm oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 617,300 tons, with an increase of 2.92%. The import profit has improved, and the number of purchases has increased. The fundamentals are good, and it is advisable to buy on dips [19]. - Domestic rapeseed oil: As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, showing a continuous marginal decline. The import profit has an expanded deficit, and there are rumors of contract cancellations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [25]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils may experience a callback, and it is advisable to buy on dips after the callback [29]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider doing a positive spread on P1 - 5 after the callback [29]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [29].