Yin He Qi Huo
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银河期货煤炭日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:54
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, November 25, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [6][9] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On November 25, port market thermal coal quotes showed signs of weakness. 5500 kcal coal was quoted at 830 - 840 yuan/ton, 5000 kcal at 730 - 740 yuan/ton, and 4500 kcal at 630 - 640 yuan/ton. Different regions had varying non - power enterprise coal prices [2]. Group 3: Important News - National Railway Freight: From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 3.378 billion tons of goods, a 3% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a 4% year - on - year increase [3]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Supply - Domestic Supply: As of November 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of the two cities was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply was becoming more abundant [4]. - Import: Chinese procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise. Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on Chinese demand [4]. Demand - General Demand: This week, demand was mediocre. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while that of Japan and South Korea was average, and India's procurement demand showed no improvement. Heating load growth did not meet expectations, and power plant daily consumption increased slowly, with power plant loads generally operating in the 60% - 70% range [4]. - Coal Procurement: Power plants mainly pulled long - term contract supplies, with extremely limited demand for market coal. They had a very low acceptance of high - priced coal and strong willingness to bargain, leading to a stalemate in market transactions [4]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transport volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. Port inventory remained stable, with the inventory of Bohai Rim ports at 24.85 million tons as of November 25, at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Power Plant Inventory: Coastal power plant daily consumption was low, but inventory continued to decline. Inland power plant inventory was at a neutral level [4]. Price Forecast - Overall: In late November, coal production in major producing areas was low. Power plant inventory continued to decline, and import profits were available. Coastal power plants increased procurement. Port inventory fluctuated within a range. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4]. Group 5: Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the inventory and daily consumption data of various ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [7][8]
银河期货白糖日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:36
第一部分 数据分析 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: F3013727 研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 白糖日报 投资咨询证号: Z0014425 联系方式: liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,336 | 0 | 0.00% | 3,672 | 755 | 18,875 | 469 | | SR01 | | 5,387 | 17 | 0.32% | 135,377 | -40608 | 406,329 | -11410 | | SR05 | | 5,325 | 6 | 0.11% | 28,811 | -17810 | 179,388 | 267 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼 ...
银河期货航运日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is pessimistic about the subsequent freight rate height. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes for the first half of December, which led to a significant decline in the EC futures market on November 25. The freight rate landing expectations are still controversial. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and waiting for a pullback to buy the 2 - 4 positive spreads in batches for arbitrage [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Performance** - On November 25, EC2512 closed at 1650 points, down 7.29% from the previous day's close. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline. The trading volume of most contracts increased significantly, while the open interest of some contracts changed differently. For example, the trading volume of EC2512 increased by 346.72%, and its open interest decreased by 5.95% [5]. - The month - spread structure also changed. For instance, the EC12 - EC02 spread was 197, down 14.6 [5]. - **Container Freight Rates** - The SCFIS European Line index was 1639.37, up 20.75% week - on - week but down 42.71% year - on - year. Different container freight rates showed different trends. For example, the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa freight rate was 3557 USD/TEU, down 11.81% week - on - week and 21.76% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation** - **Analysis**: Some shipping companies, such as MSK, lowered their quotes, which affected market sentiment. The latest SCFIS European Line index was higher than expected due to previous delays, skipped sailings, and differences in mainstream shipping company quotes. The demand in November - December is expected to gradually improve. The supply of shipping capacity in November and January 2026 changed little, while the capacity in December decreased slightly by about 4% due to the additional suspension of one ship by the OA Alliance and MSC's ship - changing strategy. Geopolitical factors also affected the market, with MSK not resuming flights in the short term [7][8]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, due to the controversial landing expectations, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For arbitrage, wait for a pullback and then buy the 2 - 4 positive spreads in batches [9]. - **Industry News** - On November 24, Goldman Sachs economists expected the Fed to cut interest rates in December, warning that the US economic slowdown might exceed expectations [10]. II. Relevant Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the trends of various container freight indices, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates from Shanghai to different regions like the US West, US East, Europe, etc. [11][12][14]
棉花、棉纱日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:24
Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts are 13585, 13530, 13665, 20075, 19860, and 20020 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 125, 85, 55, 350, 180, and -55. The trading volumes and open interests also show various changes [2]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B is 14793 yuan/ton with a change of 2, Cot A is 74.00 cents/pound, and other spot prices like those of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have their respective values and changes [2]. - Price spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外 spreads, are presented with their corresponding values and price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Purchase prices: From November 17 - 23, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.05 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.18 yuan/kg year - on - year; hand - picked cotton was 6.69 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.07 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was relatively stable at 6.75 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of November 23, 1044 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 369.5 million tons [4]. - US cotton harvest: As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The harvest in Texas and other major producing areas is progressing orderly, and the low - temperature and less - rainy weather is beneficial for the harvest and improves the processing and inspection quality [4]. - Price quotes: The 2025/26 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B/with impurity within 3 has a one - price quote of 14600 - 14800, and the same - quality point - price basis is mostly above CF01 + 1100, with a small amount in the 1050 - 1100 range for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some 2025/26 north Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/28B/with impurity within 2.5 had a transaction basis of CF01 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [5]. Trading Logic - Fundamental analysis: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with new cotton flooding the market and a large increase in production but a potentially smaller - than - expected increase, and with average recent orders but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Market conditions: Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened significantly, and cotton yarn futures followed with a larger increase, boosting the atmosphere. However, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders and mainly downstream rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarns have maintained good sales, with stable prices, while other yarn varieties have seen stable - to - decreasing prices, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The overall situation of traceability orders has changed little, but due to the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations, the confidence of exporters to Japan has declined, and they are more cautious. The future trend of Zhengzhou cotton, downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the international situation need to be monitored [9]. - Fabric market: The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market remains sluggish, with inventory levels still rising. Conventional varieties face fierce homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is a significant shortage of terminal orders, and competition among grey fabric mills is intense. It is expected that this week will continue the sluggish situation of last week, and the inventory of weaving mills will continue to increase [9]. Group 3: Options - Option data: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other parameters of options such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are presented. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [11]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: The report includes figures such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23].
银河期货尿素日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic urea demand remains limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not yet starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The domestic - international price difference is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic one. Urea is expected to be mainly range - bound. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1630 (-7/-0.43%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 25, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.11 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.10 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94% compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material inventory was abundant, finished product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and the ex - factory price was expected to be stable with a downward trend. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the ex - factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to operate weakly. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was firm, the demand in the Northeast increased, and the ex - factory price was expected to be temporarily stable. Overall, the supply was loose, the demand was declining, and the inventory was high [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]
银河期货股指期货数据日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:14
Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 7,249.95, up 1.31%. The IM2512 contract closed at 7,172.00, up 0.85%. The IM2601 contract closed at 7,103.40, up 0.79%. The IM2603 contract closed at 6,954.00, up 0.79%. The IM2606 contract closed at 6,725.60, up 0.77% [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 213,192 lots, a decrease of 10,643 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 367,936 lots, a decrease of 9,256 lots from the previous day [5]. - The IM main contract was at a discount of 77.95 points, a decrease of 16.74 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -15.87% [5]. Annualized Roll - over Cost and Dividend Impact - The CSI 1000 spot price was 7,249.95. The current - month contract (IM2512) had a closing price of 7,172.00, with 24 days remaining until maturity, a dividend value of 0.69, a discount of 77.95 points, a discount rate of -1.1%, and an annualized discount rate of -15.9% [15]. Main Seats - For the IM2512 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total volume of 38,415 lots, a decrease of 3,508 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had a total of 37,781 lots, an increase of 367 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of short positions had a total of 47,832 lots, a decrease of 240 lots from the previous day [19]. IF Futures Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4,490.40, up 0.95%. The IF2512 contract closed at 4,473.00, up 0.66%. The IF2601 contract closed at 4,457.20, up 0.66%. The IF2603 contract closed at 4,444.00, up 0.70%. The IF2606 contract closed at 4,399.80, up 0.67% [24]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 108,933 lots, a decrease of 4,758 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 264,574 lots, a decrease of 3,977 lots from the previous day [25]. - The IF main contract was at a discount of 17.4 points, a decrease of 4.55 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -5.68% [25]. Annualized Roll - over Cost and Dividend Impact - The CSI 300 spot price was 4,490.40. The current - month contract (IF2512) had a closing price of 4,473.00, with 24 days remaining until maturity, a dividend impact of 1.00, a discount of 17.40 points, a discount rate of -0.4%, and an annualized discount rate of -5.7% [32]. Main Seats - For the IF2512 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total volume of 72,559 lots, a decrease of 4,780 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had a total of 70,016 lots, a decrease of 3,742 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of short positions had a total of 74,495 lots, a decrease of 3,784 lots from the previous day [37]. IC Futures Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 6,954.60, up 1.25%. The IC2512 contract closed at 6,900.00, up 0.85%. The IC2601 contract closed at 6,846.60, up 0.81%. The IC2603 contract closed at 6,736.00, up 0.83%. The IC2606 contract closed at 6,530.80, up 0.82% [42]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 134,717 lots, an increase of 2,797 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 258,131 lots, an increase of 5,282 lots from the previous day [43]. - The IC main contract was at a discount of 54.6 points, a decrease of 13.23 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -11.55% [43]. Annualized Roll - over Cost and Dividend Impact - The CSI 500 spot price was 6,954.60. The current - month contract (IC2512) had a closing price of 6,900.00, with 24 days remaining until maturity, a dividend value of 0.61, a discount of 54.60 points, a discount rate of -0.8%, and an annualized discount rate of -11.6% [51]. Main Seats - For the IC2512 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total volume of 28,429 lots, a decrease of 1,267 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had a total of 27,400 lots, an increase of 751 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of short positions had a total of 35,555 lots, an increase of 926 lots from the previous day [57]. IH Futures Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 2,968.20, up 0.60%. The IH2512 contract closed at 2,959.20, up 0.35%. The IH2601 contract closed at 2,954.20, up 0.35%. The IH2603 contract closed at 2,954.00, up 0.31%. The IH2606 contract closed at 2,945.20, up 0.28% [63]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 43,866 lots, a decrease of 889 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 88,482 lots, a decrease of 977 lots from the previous day [63]. - The IH main contract was at a discount of 9 points, a decrease of 2.84 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -4.44% [64]. Annualized Roll - over Cost and Dividend Impact - The SSE 50 spot price was 2,968.20. The current - month contract (IH2512) had a closing price of 2,959.20, with 24 days remaining until maturity, a dividend value of 0.87, a discount of 9.00 points, a discount rate of -0.3%, and an annualized discount rate of -4.4% [74]. Main Seats - For the IH2512 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total volume of 30,351 lots, a decrease of 2,069 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had a total of 23,445 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of short positions had a total of 28,827 lots, a decrease of 475 lots from the previous day [78].
银河期货甲醇日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:12
研究所 能源化工研发报告 本周期(20251115-20251121)国际甲醇(除中国)产量为 1068585 吨,装置产能利用 率为 73.25%,环比上周持平。 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场:期货盘面震荡,最终报收 2067(+10/+0.49%)。 2、现货市场:生产地,内蒙南线报价 1970 元/吨,北线报价 1970 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1910 元/吨,榆林地区报价 1940 元/吨,山西地区报价 2020 元/吨,河南地区报价 2060 元/吨。消费地,鲁南地区市场报价 2130 元/吨,鲁北报价 2180 元/吨,河北地区 报价 2070 元/吨。 西南地区,川渝地区市场报价 1990 元/吨,云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口,太仓市场报价 2050 元/吨,宁波报价 2020 元/吨,广州报价 2020 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 甲醇日报 1 / 4 研究员:张孟超 从业资格号:F3068848 投资咨询资格证号: Z0017786 联系方式: zhangmengchao_qh@ chinastock.com.cn 【逻辑分析】 供应端,煤制甲醇 ...
银河期货油脂日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 10:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of oils and fats lacks drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and an overall oscillating state. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and short operations within a range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8144, down 24; palm oil is 8360, down 126; and rapeseed oil is 9818, up 40. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends in different regions [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 198, down 8; for palm oil is - 82, up 8; and for rapeseed oil is 330, down 26 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 216, with a change of 64; OI - Y is 1674, with a change of 102; OI - P is 1458, with a change of 166; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70, down 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is 1034, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1082, with corresponding import profit situations [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 46th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 105.3 (last week: 65.3, last year: 118.0), palm oil is 66.7 (last week: 48.3), and rapeseed oil is 38.5 (last week: 43.0, last year: 44.1) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit is $2.73 per bushel, down 12.2% from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 in 2023 [4]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The futures price closed down by more than 1%. As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, up 2.13% from the previous week. The import profit inversion has widened to around - 300. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price closed slightly down. The actual crushing volume last week was 233.44 tons, and the inventory was 117.99 tons, up 2.73% from the previous week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating state, and it is recommended to wait and see and consider light - position long after a stable correction [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. The crushing volume last week was 0 tons, and the inventory was 38.5 tons, down 4.5 tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion has widened to around - 1000. It is recommended to consider going long on OI03 or 05 contracts on dips [6]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Wait and see or conduct short - term long and short operations within a range [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [12][15].
螺纹热卷日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 10:20
研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员:戚纯怡 期货从业证号: om.cn F03113636 投资咨询证号: Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c 1/ 9 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货:网价上海中天螺纹 3220 元(+10),北京敬业 3230 元(-),上海鞍钢热 卷 3300 元(+10),天津河钢热卷 3240 元(+20)。 【交易策略】 今日黑色板块维持震荡偏强的走势,钢材现货成交整体一般,环比昨日转弱。上 周钢联数据公布,五大材整体增产,其中随着电炉利润的修复,螺纹加速复产;钢材 总库存去库速度加快,而钢材表观需求大幅修复,其中螺纹表现好于热卷;近期部分 高炉复产,但后续铁水仍有减产空间;受煤炭保供和蒙煤一亿吨发运目标影响,煤矿 持续累库,近期煤焦加速下跌,而钢矿上涨,盘面提前反应焦炭三轮提降。然而铁矿 pb 粉结构性短缺,钢材成本存在支撑,近期基建需求有所增长,钢材表需持续改善。 因此短期钢价依然跟随基本面维持震荡偏强的 ...
铁合金日报-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 10:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5448, down 0.15%, with an increase of 9552 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5636, up 0.11%, with a decrease of 13172 in open interest [5]. - For silicon ferro, the spot price was generally stable on the 25th. The supply is decreasing slightly as alloy plants enter the maintenance stage. Demand is expected to decline as future hot metal production is likely to fall. Costs are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and cost support, it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset [5]. - For manganese silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 25th, and manganese silicon spot prices were generally stable. Supply is also in a downward trend with some manufacturers in Ningxia adding maintenance and shutdowns. Demand is expected to decline. Costs are rising as port inventories of manganese ore are at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom under the game of weak supply - demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With a weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5448 | - 8 | - 74 | 316787 | - 44115 | 208059 | 9552 | | SM Main Contract | 5636 | 6 | - 44 | 120736 | - 81677 | 384812 | - 13172 | [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai and the main contract increased, and the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SF - SM spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton on the day and 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi and the main contract decreased, and the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Gabon lump increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree on the day and 0.5 yuan/ton degree week - on - week, while the prices of Australian lump and South African semi - carbonate were stable [2]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement 3.2.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.2 Important Information - On the 25th, the quotation of semi - carbonate Mn36.81% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron Mn33.77%Fe21.14% with a particle size of 6 - 100mm was quoted at 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was quoted at 42 yuan/ton degree [7]. - A silicon - manganese plant in Ningxia reduced production of 1 silicon - manganese 6517 furnace [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Figures include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, ferroalloy electricity prices, and cost - profit charts of silicon ferro and manganese silicon [9][11][13][15][17][23].