| | 1 | N | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I 11 | 1 Company of Alleria | S | 10 | 197 | X 16 2 | 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国政府关门风险消除，流动性危机解，但是数据缺失,美国就业市场受到挑战。黄 | 黄金 | | | 长线做多 | | 金价格走强，不过因为缺少新的驱动，短期高度也有限。但是黄金中长期地缘秩序 | | ★ | | 重塑，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 伦敦市场白银逼仓风险解除，另外盘面跟随相关市场波动，基本面全球政策刺激白 | | | | 白银 | 长线做多 | 银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。11400 支撑较强。长线做多持 | | ★ | | 有 | | 美国政府关门风险消除，美元流动性释放，国内核心 | | CPI 连续 6 个月上涨，市场风险 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 偏好走高，建议背靠均线逢低轻仓试多，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发， | | ★ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coils), the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. - For iron ore, the suggestion is to stop loss on short positions [1]. - For coke, the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. - For coking coal, the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. - For ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel products are testing cost support after continuous decline. Rebar shows a supply - demand weakening in the off - season, with inventory decline slower than seasonal rules. Hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure with reverse - seasonal inventory increase [3][4]. - Iron ore has supply shrinkage, accumulating contradictions, and short - term price firmness due to expected iron - water production recovery, increased steel mill maintenance information, and reduced foreign ore arrivals [7][8]. - Coke market starts the fourth price increase. Although coke enterprises' profits improve slightly but are still mostly in losses. With iron - water production decline and low raw material inventory, short - term restocking enthusiasm is okay [10][11]. - Coking coal's supply is affected by safety and environmental inspections, with low coal mine inventory and sufficient pre - orders. Seasonal decline in iron - water production restricts upward space, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is healthy [13][14]. - For ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, the November steel procurement has started. Ferromanganese supply is slightly down but still high, and inventory increase slows. Ferrosilicon's production area's operating rate increases, and inventory rises significantly [16][17]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Variety View**: Rebar has a weak supply - demand in the off - season with production and apparent demand decreasing, and inventory decline slower than seasonal rules. Iron - water production decline weakens support for raw materials. Hot - rolled coils have falling production and apparent demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory increase shows inventory pressure [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels. Hot - rolled coils will operate in a medium - term range and may fluctuate after continuous decline [5]. - **Price Data**: Futures, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils are provided, showing price changes and relationships [2]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Iron - water production is expected to rise with some blast furnace restarts. Steel mill maintenance information increases, and foreign ore arrivals shrink. Static fundamentals are neutral - bullish, and short - term price is firm [8]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Stop loss on short positions [9]. - **Price Data**: Futures, spot prices, basis, price spreads, freight rates, and spot indices of iron ore are presented, showing price changes and market conditions [6]. Coke - **Variety View**: The coke market starts the fourth price increase. Coke enterprises' profits improve slightly but are still mostly in losses. With iron - water production decline and low raw material inventory, short - term restocking enthusiasm is okay, and it follows coking coal price to operate in a range [11]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [12]. - **Price Data**: Futures, spot prices, weekly data on production, inventory, and profit of coke are provided, showing market changes [10]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Supply is affected by safety and environmental inspections, with low coal mine inventory and sufficient pre - orders. Seasonal decline in iron - water production restricts upward space, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is healthy, with price expected to operate in a range [14]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [15]. - **Price Data**: Futures, spot prices, weekly data on production, inventory, and operating rate of coking coal are given, showing market conditions [13]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: Ferromanganese supply is slightly down but still high, and inventory increase slows. Ferrosilicon's production area's operating rate increases, and inventory rises significantly. The November steel procurement has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing [17]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [18]. - **Price Data**: Futures, spot prices, basis, price spreads, and weekly data on production, inventory, and operating rate of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are presented, showing market changes [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For plastics, the supply is under pressure, the market may continue to seek a bottom weakly. With the restart of devices and the increase in domestic and foreign supplies, while the demand side has insufficient restocking power and high inventory, the fundamentals have no upward driving force, so the previous short positions should be held, and short - selling on the short - term single side is not recommended [4]. - For PP, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and it will run weakly following the cost side. With high inventory, increasing supply, and weakening demand, there is a high de - stocking pressure in the future [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP Market Review - **Plastic**: This week, plastics opened high and closed low, with two consecutive negative weekly lines. It opened 16 points higher at 6915 on Monday, reached a weekly high of 6939, then fell unilaterally to a weekly low of 6745 on Thursday morning, and finally closed at 6802, down 97 points or 1.4% from last week's closing. The weekly amplitude was 194 points [3][13]. - **PP**: This week, PP also opened high and closed low, with two consecutive negative weekly lines. It opened 10 points higher at 6600 on Monday, reached a weekly high of 6629, then fell unilaterally to a weekly low of 6415 on Thursday morning, and finally closed at 6464, down 126 points or 1.9% from last week's closing. The weekly amplitude was 214 points [8][16]. 3.2 Valuation - For plastics, the basis and monthly spread are running weakly, and the single is at a year - on - year high. The oil - based valuation is at a medium level, and LLDPE is at a medium position in the same period [19][26][28]. - For PP, the valuation is moderately high [34]. 3.3 Production Capacity and Supply - **Production Capacity**: In 2025, the planned PE production capacity is 613 tons (year - on - year + 17%), with 463 tons already put into production from January to October and 120 tons remaining. The planned PP production capacity is 511 tons (year - on - year + 11%), with 456 tons already put into production from January to October and 45 tons remaining. In 2026, it is still in a high - production - capacity cycle, and the probability of PP device delay is relatively high, so the opportunity to shrink LP05 can be concerned [35]. - **Supply**: In November, the start - up rate shows an upward trend. The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing, with some devices planned to restart and new devices continuously ramping up production. This week, the PE output is 66 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 83%. Since mid - September, the output has rebounded from a low level. The PP output this week is 80 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 78%, and it is expected to continue to increase next week [36][38][46]. 3.4 Import and Export - **PE**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume is 1000 tons (year - on - year - 1.8%), and the import volume in September is 102 tons (year - on - year - 10%, month - on - month + 8%). The export volumes in October and November are expected to be 110 and 116 tons respectively [41]. - **PP**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume is 246 tons (year - on - year - 9%), and the import volume in September is 29 tons (year - on - year - 3%, month - on - month + 17%). The cumulative export volume is 234 tons (year - on - year + 28%), and the export volume in September is 24 tons (year - on - year + 22%, month - on - month - 14%) [49][52]. 3.5 Demand - **PE**: This week, the downstream capacity utilization rate of PE is 45%, showing a continuous two - week decline. From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PE is 3358 tons (cumulative year - on - year + 11%) [55]. - **PP**: This week, the downstream start - up rate of PP is 53%, showing a continuous three - week increase. From January to September 2025, the apparent consumption of PP is 2981 tons (year - on - year + 13%), with a year - on - year increase of 12% in September [58]. - **Plastic Products**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative export value of plastic and products is 831 billion US dollars (year - on - year + 1.2%), and the export value in September is 119 billion US dollars (year - on - year + 5.1%) [60]. 3.6 Inventory - **Upstream Inventory**: As of November 7, the polyolefin petrochemical inventory of the two major oil companies is 66.5 tons (month - on - month - 2.5, year - on - year + 1%). This week, the PE enterprise inventory is 49 tons (week - on - week + 7.4), reaching a high level in the same period of previous years, and the PP enterprise inventory is 60 tons (week - on - week + 0.5), showing a slight inventory accumulation [63]. - **Social Inventory**: This week, the PE social inventory is 51 tons (week - on - week - 2), with different performances among varieties. The PP trader inventory is 23 tons (week - on - week + 1.5), remaining at a high level in the same period [66]. 3.7 Strategies - **Plastic**: For the single - side strategy, due to weak fundamentals, hold short positions, and focus on the range of [6700 - 6900] for L2601. For the arbitrage strategy, hold the long LP01 arbitrage. For the hedging strategy, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [5][7]. - **PP**: For the single - side strategy, due to weak supply and demand, hold short positions, and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] for PP2601. For the arbitrage strategy, short the MTO (05) profit when the price is high. For the hedging strategy, upstream and traders can sell - hedge when the price is high [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most energy and chemical products, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil price trends, and inventory levels. Some products face supply - side pressure and bearish trends, while others show short - term improvements but still have uncertainties [2][4][7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the upward pressure on oil prices is significant. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the supply - surplus pressure is rising [2] - Basic logic: OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in early next year. The consumption off - season has begun, and the supply - surplus pressure is increasing. The US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31 [10] - Strategy: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [455 - 465] for SC [11] LPG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. It follows the weakening of the cost - end oil price [2] - Basic logic: The cost - end is bearish due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russia and Saudi Arabia's reduction of the CP contract price. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased. The port and factory inventories have both declined [16] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - Core view: Bearish continuation. The enterprise inventory pressure increases [2] - Basic logic: The spot and futures are still bottom - seeking. The enterprise inventory has reached a high level in the same period, and the cost support has weakened. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand for replenishment is insufficient [21] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [21] PP - Core view: Bearish continuation. The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high [2] - Basic logic: The fundamentals remain weak, following the weakening of oil prices and propylene. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for PP [25] PVC - Core view: Bearish continuation. The trading volume reaches a new high [2] - Basic logic: The trading volume reaches a new high, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are slowly decreasing from a high level. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, but the low valuation provides support [29] - Strategy: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of [4550 - 4700] for PVC [29] PX - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply - demand situation is improved, but the oil price is under pressure [31] - Basic logic: The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [30] - Strategy: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6705 - 6810] for PX [31] PTA - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand situation is slightly improved, but the oil price is under pressure [32] - Basic logic: The processing fee is low. The later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand has improved, but the order stability needs to be observed. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November - December [33] - Strategy: Focus on expanding the processing fee spread (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4620 - 4695] for TA [34] MEG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The valuation is low, but the oil price is under pressure [35] - Basic logic: The domestic device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [36] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3880 - 3960] for EG [37] Methanol - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [38] - Basic logic: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand performance is average, and the cost support is weak and stable [40] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4] Urea - Core view: Cautiously bullish. Exports are short - term positive, but the fundamentals remain weak [43] - Basic logic: The spot price of small - particle urea is rising, and the negative basis is slightly weakening. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The factory inventory is accumulating and at a high level in the same period. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [44] - Strategy: Be vigilant against the risk of the futures price falling after rising. Consider going long lightly at low prices for far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of [1640 - 1680] for UR [45] Natural Gas - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The gas price is likely to rise due to the consumption peak season [46] - Basic logic: The global temperature is dropping, and the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating is increasing. The supply is sufficient, but the demand support is rising [48] - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of [4.400 - 4.600] for NG [49] Asphalt - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the asphalt price is under downward pressure [50] - Basic logic: The cost - end oil price has回调ed, and the comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the demand has also decreased. The social inventory has increased [53] - Strategy: Short - allocate lightly. Pay attention to the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [54] Glass - Core view: Bearish consolidation. The capital game is intense, and caution is required [55] - Basic logic: The daily melting volume has decreased, and the coal - based process still has profits. The factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. The domestic demand is weak, and the demand support is insufficient [56] - Strategy: In the short term, cold - repair provides support. In the long term, the real - estate demand is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Short on rebounds [56] Soda Ash - Core view: Bearish rebound. Device maintenance has increased, and the price has stopped falling in the short term [7] - Basic logic: The device maintenance has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply will remain loose in the long term due to the high - production cycle [7] - Strategy: The industry should conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, PVC opened flat and trended lower, with the weekly line showing two consecutive negative trends and the main contract hitting a new low for the year. In the coming week, the fundamentals remain largely unchanged, maintaining a weak pattern of high inventory and high warrants. There is no upward driving force on the supply - demand side, but the low absolute price and the strong performance of coal at the cost - end provide support at the bottom. With the main contract's open interest reaching a new high, attention should be paid to the short - covering opportunities in the later stage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - **Price Trend**: This week, PVC opened flat at 4696, quickly rose to a weekly high of 4702, then continued last week's downward trend, reached a weekly low of 4600 on Thursday morning, and finally closed at 4611, down 90 points or 1.8% from last week. The weekly range was between 4600 and 4702, with an amplitude of 102 points [3][8]. - **Base and Warehouse Receipts**: No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only the topic is mentioned [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread showed a sideways shock [13]. - **Valuation**: - The gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method this week was - 723 yuan/ton, and the calcium carbide price rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support [17]. - The profit of northwest chlor - alkali integration continued to be compressed [20]. - **Supply**: - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. From January to week 43, the cumulative production increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In the next 3 weeks, the supply - demand pressure in the PVC industry will first increase and then decrease [25]. - **Demand**: - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction/construction/completion/sales area of real estate were - 18.9%/- 9.4%/- 15.3%/- 5.5%. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand [28]. - Currently, the downstream operating rate is maintained at around 50%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption in September was 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [31]. - **Export**: From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 980,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%). In September, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India) [34]. - **Inventory**: - As of Thursday this week, the PVC enterprise inventory was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000), and the pre - sales volume of upstream enterprises was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8) [37]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000), and the large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000, a year - on - year increase of 206,000) [40]. Caustic Soda Market Review Only the topic of caustic soda market review is mentioned, and no specific content analysis is provided [41].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints The current cotton market has a limited change in the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short - term. High supply significantly suppresses the market. As cotton procurement nears completion, short - term marginal drivers weaken, reducing volatility. The enthusiasm for capital speculation is low, but the short - selling sentiment of leading institutions has cooled. Downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have not deteriorated after more than two months of tortuous recovery, and there is still sales resilience in the domestic market, which may maintain the rigid demand for raw materials in the future. With weak import expectations, it is expected to shrink the supply - demand gap in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, the market price is near the hedging pressure level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback opportunities during the transmission of supply pressure or sell put options at the bottom, and also pay attention to short - term reverse arbitrage opportunities. The reference range is 13330 - 13830 [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - **International**: Baysant said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that China is willing to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state with the US. As of November 4 (US Eastern Time), the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the US federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in US history [3]. - **Domestic**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply Factors - **International**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, with 730,000 tons of new cotton inspected, accounting for about 25% of the total. Precipitation in major cotton - growing areas decreased in early November, which is beneficial for harvesting. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 14,000 tons, and it is expected that precipitation in cotton - growing areas will decrease in January, which is expected to accelerate procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP). In Pakistan, as of the end of October, the listing volume of new cotton was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 63.67%, slower than last year [3]. - **Domestic**: It is expected that cotton procurement in Xinjiang will end in mid - to - early November. The inspection progress is faster than the same period, and the sales progress is still relatively fast. The quality of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is not as expected, and ginneries have become more cautious in procurement. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton. Low - cost ginneries can make a small profit by selling at the current price [3]. - **Picking and Processing Progress**: The national new cotton picking progress reached 87.1%, the delivery progress was 90.4%, the processing progress was 39.4%, and the national new cotton inspection volume exceeded 2.25 million tons; the sales progress was 14.2%, 5.8% faster than the same period [17]. - **Cost**: The national average purchase price of seed cotton has rebounded steadily. The average price of new - season ginned cotton has increased to 14,500 yuan/ton. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased by 521,700 tons week - on - week to 2.8478 million tons, lower than the same period by 278,800 tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 1.839 million tons, higher than the same period by 269,600 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces increased to 165,200 tons, lower than the same period by 14,300 tons. The inventory of finished products such as pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn decreased [19]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Affected by the improvement of warehouse receipt premiums and the firmness of the market, the number of warehouse receipts has increased [3]. Demand Factors - **International**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow in August, and consumer confidence continued to recover in October. In Vietnam, clothing and textile exports decreased month - on - month in October and were lower than the same period. In the EU, the consumer confidence index continued to recover in October, but the growth rate of clothing imports decreased significantly in August, and the import amount declined [3]. - **Domestic**: In November, the overall trading level in the downstream market was still average, with obvious market negotiation characteristics. The current market transactions are mainly concentrated in local low - basis resources and the rigid demand procurement of enterprises, with no obvious new orders. Enterprises mainly focus on pre - sales. This week, the operating rates of spinning and weaving enterprises changed little week - on - week, the repair of spinning profits slowed down, the trading volume in the downstream textile market decreased marginally and was the same as the same period; the prices of auxiliary materials in the Keqiao area continued to fall to a low level, and the improvement of the terminal volume - price trend was not good [3]. - **Operating Rates**: This week, the spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 65.6%, 6.3% lower than the same period; the weaving mill operating rate increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 37.6%, 10.1% lower than the same period [26]. - **Profits**: The immediate profit of the representative 32 - count yarn has remained stable at around - 900 yuan/ton recently, and the profit of textile enterprises in Xinjiang is about 600 yuan/ton. The cumulative year - on - year value of industry profits in September rebounded to - 18.5% [26]. - **Market Transactions**: This week, the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth trading volume in the Textile City decreased by 28,000 meters week - on - week to 336,000 meters, the same as the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index increased by 0.07 to 110.86, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 0.35 to 110.63 [28]. - **PMI**: In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period, and it has been below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% month - on - month to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% month - on - month to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [31]. - **Retail Sales**: In September, the total retail sales of enterprises in the clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles categories above the designated size reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, an increase from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of these enterprises were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [33]. - **Exports**: In October, the export volume of textile and clothing was 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 243.94 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the export volume of textiles was 11.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 117.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The export volume of clothing was 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 126.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term coking coal supply may remain tight due to environmental protection and safety inspections in major production areas. However, the traditional off - season of the downstream steel market and the continuous decline in hot metal production suppress the upward space of raw material prices. The coking coal and coke futures are expected to move within a range next week. The strategy suggests short - term long positions in coking coal and arbitrage opportunities of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1230, 1310], and for the coke main contract is [1710, 1800] [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, black - series commodities declined across the board, while coking coal and coke prices were relatively firm. The weekly decline of the coking coal main contract was 1.24%, and that of the coke main contract was 1.15%. Domestic coal mine production decreased, and inventory was at a near - three - year low. Pre - sale orders were sufficient, and the auction market was active. Steel mill profits were poor, hot metal production declined, but raw material replenishment demand was still resilient. The port clearance volume of imported coking coal increased, and the spot resources were relatively tight. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and some coke enterprises initiated the fourth round [4] Coking Coal - **Supply** - 523 mines' daily average raw coal output was 186.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4 tons; daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01 tons. Sample coal washing plants' daily average output was 27.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [20][23] - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. In September, the total import volume was 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [24][25] - **Inventory and Basis** - The 01 contract basis of coking coal strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened [8][13] - The coking coal auction's weekly listing volume decreased by 0.69 tons, the成交 rate decreased by 0.24%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 0.24% [30] Coke - **Market and Profit** - Coke spot prices remained stable. The national average coking profit increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, still in a loss state. Profits in different regions improved to varying degrees [36][40] - **Supply and Demand** - Coke daily consumption was 105.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 tons. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [51] - **Inventory and Basis** - Coke total inventory decreased by 12.97 tons week - on - week. Steel mill inventory, independent coke enterprise inventory, and port inventory all decreased. The 01 contract basis of coke strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread situation was not provided in detail [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate continues to show a tight supply - demand balance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks, and the de - stocking amplitude has further expanded. Although domestic production has continuously reached new highs and the import volume is expected to increase in November, the terminal market is strong. However, the expected acceleration of the resumption of production may put pressure on the price. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking for long positions near the previous high and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In October, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50 in October, with Germany and France in continuous contraction. The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 8 consecutive months, but the service PMI reached an 8 - month high. The US government shutdown has entered its 36th day [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 50%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, with 16,200 tons exported to China [3]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a 9% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.922 million vehicles, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 4% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 23.769 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased. The price of African SC 5% remained unchanged at $630 per ton compared to last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $940 per ton, a decrease of $53 per ton from last week. The market price of lepidolite was 2,775 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan from last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 30,715 tons, a decrease of 1,336 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.6 Market Review - As of November 7, LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,250 yuan per ton, a 2.7% decrease from last week. The basis discount widened, and the main contract's open interest was 492,000. The main contract first declined and then rose this week. On Tuesday, the market was impacted by the news of the full resumption of mica mines by CATL and Guoxuan, causing the lithium price to drop significantly. However, due to strong downstream demand, tight supply - demand balance, and continuous de - stocking, the price was difficult to fall deeply [8]. 3.7 Product Output and Operating Rate - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of November 7, the output was 23,465 tons, a week - on - week increase of 145 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. The price increase stimulated production enthusiasm, and the production of some enterprises increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: As of November 7, the output was 6,455 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.72%. Mainstream holders focused on fulfilling long - term contracts, and cathode material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [12]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of November 7, the output was 96,856 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,420 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.24%, a week - on - week increase of 7.41%. The industry was in a situation of both strong supply and demand [14]. - **Ternary Materials**: The demand in the power field was strong, and the production schedule increased slightly [16]. - **Other Cathode Materials**: The demand structure was differentiated, and the supply remained stable [24]. 3.8 Inventory Situation - **Lithium Carbonate Industry**: As of November 6, the total inventory was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,332 tons, a decrease of 289 tons from last week. The post - holiday de - stocking accelerated, and the warehouse receipt continued to decline, intensifying the tightness of spot circulation [32]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry**: As of November 7, the total inventory was 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons from last week. The finished - product inventory continued to decline, and the market demand drove inventory digestion [35]. 3.9 Cost and Profit of Products - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of November 7, the production cost was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuation of lithium carbonate, and the de - stocking trend supported the price [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: As of November 7, the production cost was 68,465 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,001 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 7,643 yuan per ton, an increase of 943 yuan from last week. The supply tightened, and the inventory de - stocking supported the price [51]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of November 7, the production cost was 36,677 yuan per ton, a decrease of 220 yuan from last week, and the loss was 2,463 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week. Although the raw material price was strong and the demand was high, the over - capacity of conventional products limited price increases [53]. - **Ternary Materials and Other Products**: The cost - profit transmission was not smooth, and the industry profit level faced challenges [56].

中辉期货钢材周报 供需逻辑兑现，行情低位波动 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/11/7 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块整体下行，螺纹主力合约周跌2.3%，热卷跌1.9%，铁矿跌4.9%，焦炭跌1.1%，焦 煤跌1.2%，煤焦延续偏强走势。供需层面看，螺纹钢及热卷产量及需求环比均落 ，体现淡季特征。热卷库存 出现逆季节性上升，螺纹钢库存虽然总量下降，但杭州库存同样逆季节性增加，明显高于往年同期，螺卷库存 均存在一定压力。钢厂利润持续收缩，铁水产量降至去年同期水平，鉴于目前库存及利润情况，后期预计仍有 下降空间。需求稳中偏弱，无亮点亦无更大利空。宏观驱动短期降温，近期焦煤供应端出现持续扰动，对行情 形成支撑。 【策略建议】：宏观事件落地之后，行情重新交易供需逻辑，从后期边际变化看，需求端难有明显起色，供需 改善仍需要钢厂继续减产，否则基本面仍有进一步宽松的可能。潜在的上行驱动最有可能来自焦煤供给端，但 在铁水下行的背景下，对钢材难以形成持续性推动 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are in a high - level correction and oscillating to accumulate strength due to factors such as the decline in Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the US government shutdown leading to tight market liquidity, and the strengthening of the US dollar index. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals, given the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand [6]. - Long - term, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with the US Treasury yield. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a catch - up increase compared to gold [20]. Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term copper price is under pressure due to macro factors, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. Short - term, it is advisable to try long positions on dips, and long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should consider adding option protection, reducing positions, and strictly controlling risks [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US government shutdown has led to a dollar shortage, with the US dollar index breaking through the 100 mark this week, suppressing copper prices. The US 10 - month ADP employment increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but the overall employment situation still has uncertainties. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is 70.6% [14]. - Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined month - on - month. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7. There are concerns about economic recession risks [17]. - There are uncertainties about the legality of Trump's tariffs. If the US Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may face a refund of about $140 billion in taxes, which will impact the federal finance [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In 2025, the production of global mainstream copper mines is expected to be revised down to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 401,300 tons compared to 2024, a 3.18% decrease, intensifying concerns about the global copper shortage [43]. - In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [49]. - The supply of scrap copper in the market is tight. The import window for scrap copper is closed, and the domestic supply is short. The refined - scrap price difference has decreased [56]. - In 2025, the global refined copper production shows a structural differentiation. China contributes most of the global increment, while overseas production in most countries has declined to varying degrees [59]. Demand - In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased. The operating rate of mid - downstream processing enterprises also rebounded slightly. The terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles shows resilience, while the performance of the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [74][78]. - The global demand for green copper is booming. The copper - electricity - RMB internationalization path is expected to be opened up [84]. 4. Summary and Outlook - Macroscopically, the US manufacturing PMI has declined, the US government shutdown continues, the US dollar index has returned above 100, and market liquidity is tight, causing commodities to retreat from high levels. The Fed's December interest - rate cut probability is uncertain [101]. - Fundamentally, the output of global major copper mines is expected to continue to contract in Q4. The copper smelting industry at home and abroad is anti - involution. The output of electrolytic copper in China decreased in October and is expected to decline in November. The inventory situation is complex, with LME copper inventory decreasing and COMEX copper inventory increasing but difficult to flow back. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased after the copper price decline, and the terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles remains resilient [102]. - Short - term, copper prices are recommended to try long positions on dips. Long - term, strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. The short - term focus range for SHFE copper is [84,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton [103][104].