1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of both supply and demand booming, with support for lithium prices. The total inventory has been decreasing for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of upstream smelters is significantly lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, the issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract the attention of funds again. Lithium carbonate should be treated with a low - buy strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In August, China's economic data showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing has increased. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and an increase in inflation, and is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, with the weekly production maintaining above 20,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The production of all raw materials increased slightly. As of September 19, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 125 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.93%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29% [3][10]. - As of September 19, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,360 tons, a week - on - week increase of 125 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86%. This week, the production of lithium hydroxide was still restricted by the high price of externally purchased raw materials and the maintenance of some production lines, with limited production release [12]. - As of September 19, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,226 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 81 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. The "Special Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025 - 2027)" has driven the significant growth of orders from mainstream battery enterprises recently, which has led to the demand for shipments from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers [14]. Demand Side - From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 438,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in September last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate was 59.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.008 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 447,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10% compared with the same period in September last year and a 21% increase compared with the same period last month, and the wholesale penetration rate was 57.7% [3]. Cost Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased month - on - month. The quotation of African SC 5% was 610 US dollars per ton, unchanged from last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 830 US dollars per ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 US dollars per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 19, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,169 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,802 yuan, and the industry profit was 5,213 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,595 yuan [4][46]. - As of September 19, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,462 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,571 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [51]. - As of September 19, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,583 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan per ton, and the loss was 735 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 207 yuan per ton [53]. Total Inventory - As of September 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 137,531 tons, a decrease of 981 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,757 tons. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, the inventory of smelters decreased rapidly, the downstream production schedule was good, maintaining the restocking rhythm, traders actively shipped, the inventory decreased, and the restocking sentiment was strong [5][32]. - As of September 19, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 50,450 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. The industry is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, and the supply of the lithium iron phosphate industry in September increased by more than 5% month - on - month [35]. Market Price - As of September 19, LC2511 closed at 73,960 yuan per ton, a 3.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan per ton, a 2.82% increase from last week, with a basis discount, and the position of the main contract was 280,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 3.75% week - on - week, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.82% week - on - week, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.88% week - on - week [6].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 降息周期开启，美国内部政策、地缘变化都将为黄金提供支撑。尽管黄金有卖现实 | | 黄金 ★★ | 长期持有 | 交易，但是中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄 | | | | 金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 无论是美联储与白宫有分歧、对国内释放政策期待，宏观政策处于观察期。白银需 | | | 强势走高 | 求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。但是白银弹性大，黄金等品种 | | ★★ | | 波动会白银盘面波动有冲击。短线等待企稳后做新的入场打算 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪修正，铜止跌企稳，反弹回 8 万关口，建议多单可止盈兑现，国庆 | | 铜 | 多单止盈 | 假期临近，长假避险情绪或发酵，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | 锌 | | 锌国内库存累库，需求疲软，短期震荡偏弱，跌破下方关口支撑，中长期看锌供增 | | ★ | 承压 | 需减，仍是板块空头配置。 | | 铅 | | 国内原生铅与再生铅企业检修增多，其 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report predicts a short - term rebound for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, although the short - term supply in China is sufficient and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on prices, the Sino - US trade issue limits the continuous decline space. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows soybean meal, with trade policies and high inventory leading to a mixed situation of long and short factors [1][4]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to have short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a positive consumption outlook due to Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies and the procurement demand from China and India in September, but the frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and the many short - term factors in the US soybean oil market may suppress its performance this month. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy changes and the approaching US soybean harvest, while the domestic double - festival stocking demand provides some support [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate bullishly. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the double - festival demand support its high - level and strong - oscillating price, but the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, red dates, and live pigs are rated as cautiously bearish. For cotton, the increasing supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the poor export demand of US cotton, and the high level of unpriced buy orders suppress the price, with a possible short - term rebound due to potential new - cotton rush - buying. Red dates may face pressure after the new fruit is launched, with possible large price fluctuations before November. Live pigs' spot prices are under pressure from high - volume supply, and the market lacks clear positive factors in capacity regulation [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3031.71 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 165.2295 yuan/ton, up 20.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.686 million tons, up 25,000 tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.332 million tons, up 15,000 tons (0.21%) from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 28,200 tons (2.48%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 191.067 yuan/ton, up 67.23 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 74,000 tons, down 27,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, down 500 tons from last week [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The national average price was 9345 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory and Export Data**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 641,500 tons, up 22,200 tons (3.58%) from last week. The export data of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 showed different trends in different reports [7][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.33% to 13720 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped by 0.24% to 15293 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract fell by 0.90% to 66.30 cents/pound [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the international market, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest and supply period. In the domestic market, new cotton is about to be launched, the demand is weak, and the export of textile and clothing in August decreased year - on - year [10][11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Information**: The red date main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.47% to 10670 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The estimated new - season production is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The live pig main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.47% to 12825 yuan/ton, and the latest spot price increased slightly by 0.23% to 12940 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned出栏量 in September is expected to increase. In the medium - term, the出栏量 is expected to grow until the first quarter of 2026. The demand is expected to gradually show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each futures variety: cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon; and recommends holding long positions for iron ore [1]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel market shows mixed signals. Rebar has positive supply - demand changes but limited downstream demand improvement, while hot - rolled coil has relatively stable supply - demand. Iron ore has a strong fundamental due to increased iron - water production, supply contraction, and pre - National Day restocking. Coke starts price hikes and runs in a range following coking coal. Coking coal has supply tightness but also import support and runs strongly in a range. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have relatively balanced supply - demand with limited upside potential [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: The apparent demand improves month - on - month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. Tangshan's production limit news provides a short - term boost. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel supply is abundant. Downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and real estate and infrastructure are still drags. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand declines, production and inventory increase slightly, and supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel demand is weak, lacking upward drivers. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron - water production increases again, supply shrinks, and combined with pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][6][7]. Coke - Coke starts the first round of price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are acceptable, and spot production is relatively stable. Iron - water production increases slightly and remains high, leading to high raw material demand. Coke's supply - demand is relatively balanced and runs in a range following coking coal. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal over - production has led to some mines' suspension for rectification. Domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, with tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron - water production rises slightly, ensuring raw material demand. In the short term, supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it runs strongly in a range due to policy disturbances on the supply side. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser. After the new round of restocking demand is released, it may be more difficult to reduce inventory in the production areas. The cost side provides strong support for prices in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions or wait and see [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Enterprise inventory decreases slightly, but warehouse receipts stop decreasing and start to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing price increases. It is expected to run in a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [1][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: High - level correction [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of gold and silver remains unchanged, despite short - term adjustments. Copper's long - term trend is positive, while zinc shows a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum prices are under pressure, and nickel prices are also facing downward pressure. Lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term due to strong terminal demand [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the probability of rate cuts in 2026 is lower than expected, and gold and silver prices have significantly adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data has improved month - on - month, and many countries have followed the Fed in cutting interest rates. In the short term, the market is selling on the news, leading to a correction in gold prices. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the selling on the news is common, but the volatility is expected to be limited. Silver has support around 9730. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has been oscillating and testing the support of the lower moving average [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight. High copper prices have suppressed demand, and inventories have continued to accumulate. Pay attention to the strength of domestic policies and the performance of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. The market has fully priced in the rate cut. Copper has oscillated and corrected, testing the support of the lower moving average. The long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. For the medium - long term, be optimistic about copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been under pressure and testing the support of the 22,000 - yuan level [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates was abundant. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production was expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have accumulated, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream buyers are purchasing on dips [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. In the short term, LME zinc has risen and then fallen. Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly and may test the support of the lower integer level. In the medium - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have been under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Inventories have accumulated. The demand side has shown a step - by - step recovery. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and the supply pressure of alumina has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been under pressure, and stainless steel has rebounded and then fallen [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decline, and the production volume in September is expected to increase. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption during the peak season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved lower, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side has continued to release incremental production. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and the inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased. The price of lithium carbonate has support at the bottom and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of [72300 - 73500] [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various steel and related products, including cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal; short-term long participation for iron ore; and cautious bearish for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the steel industry shows some positive changes in supply and demand, but there are still uncertainties and limitations. Different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Rebar's apparent demand improves month-on-month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline. However, the speed of inventory reduction needs further observation. The Tangshan production restriction news provides a boost, but it is expected to be only a temporary impact. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel supply high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still have a negative impact. The supply and demand driving force is limited, and it may operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreases, production and inventory increase slightly, and the overall change is small. The supply and demand are relatively stable with few contradictions. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel demand weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side. It may also operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Iron ore's fundamentals are strong due to the increase in hot metal production, the recovery of foreign ore arrivals, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking. However, the driving force is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. Short-term long participation is recommended [1][6][7] Coke - Coke has started the first round of price increases. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and spot production is relatively stable. The hot metal production increases slightly month-on-month and remains at a high level, resulting in high raw material demand. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to operate within a range. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][10][11] Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal overproduction has started to take effect, with some coal mines shutting down for rectification. The current domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, resulting in a tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The hot metal production increases slightly, and the high absolute level ensures raw material demand. There are few short-term supply and demand contradictions, but supply-side policies are sometimes disruptive. It operates strongly within a range in a positive atmosphere. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][14][15] Ferrous Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply and demand of ferromanganese both decrease month-on-month. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 198,900 tons, an increase of 32,100 tons month-on-month. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill in September is 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August. Overall, the supply and demand tend to be loose, and the cost side strongly supports the price. There may be short-term correction pressure, and cautious long chasing is advised [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The total inventory of sample enterprises this week is 63,390 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons month-on-month. The cost side still provides some support for the price in the short term, and the market may follow the coal price to operate within a range [1][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal**: Short - term decline, with limited continuous decline space due to Sino - US trade issues, and treated as a large - range market. Caution is needed when short - selling below 2940 yuan [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline, with multiple and short factors intertwined due to trade policies and high inventory. It follows the trend of beans and meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade should be monitored [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation, with a generally positive fundamental outlook. Look for short - term long opportunities on dips, but gradually control positions and risk management [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation, pressured by the US bio - diesel policy and approaching soybean harvest, while supported by domestic double - festival stocking demand. Be cautious when going long [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating upwards, supported by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted by the development of Sino - Australian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish, with supply pressure from the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Domestically, beware of short - term rebound due to potential抢购. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish, with concerns about quality gradually easing. There may be significant price fluctuations before November. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term decline, with the spot market under pressure from supply. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the November contract and an inverse spread strategy [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Beans and Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.50 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, up 1.50 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2470 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.84 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9304 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day; the national average price was 9308 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week [8]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day; the domestic spot price rose 0.06% to 15330 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest season. Domestically, new cotton is about to be listed, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10620 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main producing areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12830 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the previous day; the spot price was 13040 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month, and the出栏 volume was 1117.72 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [16].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘风险释放，美联储降息靴子落地，油价重回基本面定价。上周末乌克 | | 原油 | | 兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼厂，部分原油和成品油出口受阻；库存方面，美国 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 超预期去库，下方存一定支撑；供需方面，9 月 7 日，OPEC+继续扩产， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美 | | | | 元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端上行动力不足，下游 PDH 利润下滑，液化气维持偏空判断。成本 | | | | 端原油需求下降供给增加，供给过剩压力上升，仍有下探空间；LPG 估值 | | LPG ★ | 谨慎看空 | 修复，主力合约基差处于相对高位；PDH 利润转弱，开工率有转弱预期， | | | | 但需求尚可，当前开工率超过 70%；供给端和库存变化不大，偏中性。策 | | | | 略：轻仓试空。 | | L | | 市场情绪好转，关注基差修复情况。基本面短期供需矛盾 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].