中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国就业数据喜忧参半，市场降息预期没有变化，短期市场流动性风险偏好较好， | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 短期白银交易交割逻辑，ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市场押注降息持续和供需缺口连续 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利， | | ★★ | | | | | | 非农数据疲软，日央行加息在即，市场流动性或承压，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 谈判焦灼，LME 注销仓单占比维持 40%高位，建议铜多单逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | ★ | | 在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 锌库存大增超 3 万吨，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 双弱，国内淡季去库。短期锌高位回落，建议企业卖出套保积极逢 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，绝对水平均为同期最低。库存去化速度较正常。铁水产 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 量环比下降至 230 万吨以下，对原料需求形成压力。出口许可证新规或影响明年钢材出 | | | | 口。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值影响下中期或维持区间震荡反复。 | | | | 热卷产量及表需继续小幅下降，库存降幅不大，维持近年来同期最高水平，去库不畅。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。出口许可证新规或影响明年钢材出口。中期维持区 | | ★ | | 间运行，相对螺纹或阶段性偏弱。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。经济工作会议阶段性提振矿价，但情绪交易过后， | | ★ | | 矿价仍承压。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第二轮提降，部分地区受环保要求主动执行限产措施，焦企生产积极性尚 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏弱 | | | ★ | | 应预计暂充足，库存环比下降利多有限。豆粕预计短线暂维持偏弱行情。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 短线偏弱 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油本月前 10 日产量环比维持增加，利空市场情绪打压期价下跌。关注马棕 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 榈油后续数据情况。由于 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，也将限制棕榈油持续 | | | | 调整空间，关注调整后企稳短多机会。12 月预计偏震荡为主。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存环比略下降，但仍高于五年同期。南美天气改善，棕榈油端数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [2] - Silver: Long - term holding [2] - Copper: Long - term holding [2] - Zinc: Under pressure [2] - Lead: Under pressure [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [2] - Nickel: Weak [2] - Industrial silicon: Low - level oscillation [2] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various有色金属 futures. For precious metals like gold and silver, long - term investment is recommended due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. For base metals, the market conditions vary. For example, copper is favored in the long - term due to supply constraints and green demand, while zinc and lead face downward pressure. For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, the market is affected by factors such as production, demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Precious metals have attracted attention, and funds have shifted to platinum and palladium. The market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [3]. - **基本逻辑**: Morgan Stanley may conduct technical selling of gold and silver. The Fed's stance is inconsistent, and geopolitical situations are complex [3]. - **策略推荐**: Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing. For silver, avoid chasing highs or touching lows in the short - term and hold long - term positions. Short - term, pay attention to the support level of domestic gold at 955. For silver, be wary of high volatility risks [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper is consolidating at a high level [6]. - **产业逻辑**: The global copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and it is the consumption off - season. The COMEX copper is attracting global copper inventories, and the LME copper注销仓单占比 remains at a high level of 40% [6]. - **策略推荐**: With the upcoming release of US non - farm payroll data and the ongoing TC long - term contract negotiation for copper concentrate in 2026 in China, it is recommended to set a trailing stop - profit when the price rises. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to supply shortages and green demand. Short - term, the range for Shanghai copper is [90000, 94500] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [11000, 12000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [9]. - **产业逻辑**: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate is declining. The supply may contract in the future, and it is the consumption off - season. Overseas LME zinc inventories are increasing, and domestic zinc ingot social inventories are slightly decreasing [9]. - **策略推荐**: In the short - term, zinc is falling from a high level. Enterprises are recommended to actively conduct sell - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, zinc supply will increase while demand will decrease, so it is a short - position in the sector. The range for Shanghai zinc is [23000, 23500], and for London zinc is [3100, 3200] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina is stabilizing at a low level [12]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of some aluminum enterprises in southwest China may increase. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is rising, and the demand is showing structural differentiation. For alumina, the overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the inventory is high. The market surplus pattern continues [13]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to take profit and then wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the main contract is [21000 - 22200] [14]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is facing pressure in the rebound [16]. - **产业逻辑**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production. Nickel inventories are increasing. The stainless steel market has entered the off - season, and the inventory is slightly rising [17]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventories. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113800 - 117000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2605 opened lower and then rose, and closed above 100,000 [20]. - **产业逻辑**: Domestic production remains high. Overseas supply pressure has eased. The sales of new energy vehicles at the beginning of December were below expectations, but the energy storage sector is strong. The demand from downstream material factories still supports lithium carbonate [21]. - **策略推荐**: The capital game is intense. For long positions, pay attention to taking profit in the range of [98000 - 105000] [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][14] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][19] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][23] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1][27] - PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][31] - Ethylene glycol: Short on rebounds [3][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3][37] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3][42] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7][54] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7][58] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation during the off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [1][11] - The price of LPG is dragged down by the cost of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation shows that the refinery's production is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [1][17] - For L, the basis is weakening, the supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural film market is declining, with inventory removal pressure [1][22] - PP needs to pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [1][26] - PVC has an oversupply contradiction before concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream, but the cost of raw materials is falling [1][30] - PTA has a relatively tight short - term supply - demand balance, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in January, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [3][32] - Ethylene glycol has a short - term supply improvement, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3][35] - Methanol's port inventory is decreasing, but the fundamental situation remains weak, with supply pressure and weakening demand [3][39] - Urea has a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation, with high supply and limited demand sustainability, and attention should be paid to exports [3][43] - The price of natural gas has reached a high level, with increasing upward pressure, and the supply and demand situation is affected by geopolitics and seasonal factors [6] - Asphalt's price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America [7][52] - Glass has a situation of weak supply reduction and weak demand, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [7][57] - Soda ash has a loose supply pattern, with high inventory and insufficient demand support [7][61] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.34%, Brent down 0.92%, and SC down 0.30% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing, and the off - season supply is in excess, with global and US crude oil inventories increasing [11] - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production increased slightly in November, and the IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories have different trends [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the price is in a low - price range. Short - term trends are weak, and partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended [13] LPG - **Market Review**: On December 15, the PG main contract closed at 4152 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price is linked to crude oil, with cost - side negatives. Supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - and long - term, the price has room for compression. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [20] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, supply is sufficient, and there is inventory removal pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Pay attention to the range of [6500 - 6650] [22] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [24] - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics, and the industry chain faces high inventory removal pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, and wait for rebounds to short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or shorting MTO05. Pay attention to the range of [6200 - 6350] [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [28] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of raw materials is falling, but the oversupply contradiction persists before concentrated maintenance [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4400] [30] PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is relieved due to high - intensity maintenance, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on TA05 at low levels. Pay attention to the range of [4650 - 4710] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts had different trends, with changes in trading volume and open interest [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3580 - 3650] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply pressure remains, and the demand is slightly weakening [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is changing hands, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to MA05 [41] Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively sufficient, the demand is short - term good but not sustainable, and the inventory is still at a high level [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on UR05. Pay attention to the range of [1635 - 1655] [45] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.113 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.79% month - on - month [48] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the supply is relatively sufficient [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support, but the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.860 - 4.239] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 15, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 0.37% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is affected by the weakening of crude oil cost and the supply - demand situation [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on short positions due to the uncertainty in South America. Pay attention to the range of [2850 - 2950] [53] Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of glass contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [55] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is difficult to shrink significantly, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the upstream and mid - stream is still high [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [930 - 980] [57] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of soda ash contracts increased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [59] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is loose, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory is still at a high level [61] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short in the short term and wait for rebounds to short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1130] [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bullish [1][13][14] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Mid - term, they are expected to operate within a range. Rebar may oscillate within a range in the medium term due to weak drivers and low valuation. Hot - rolled coil may be relatively weaker than rebar in stages [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in hot metal production and the end of the sentiment boost from the economic work conference, the ore price is under pressure, but the decrease in the arrival of foreign ores provides short - term support [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price cuts has started, and short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom. Although hot metal production decline suppresses demand, supply in production areas has decreased slightly [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production has decreased, and some coal mines have cut production. Although Mongolian coal prices are weak, short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom [1][12][13] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand structure of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose. The prices are at a relatively low level and are expected to oscillate within a range [1][15][17] 3. Summaries According to Different Varieties Steel Products - **Rebar**: Production and apparent demand have continued to decline month - on - month, reaching the lowest levels in the same period. Inventory depletion is normal. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.3 million tons, pressuring raw material demand. The new export license regulations may affect steel exports next year [1][4] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand have continued to decline slightly. Inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory level is at a record high for the same period. The spot price is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par [1][4] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Hot metal production has decreased month - on - month, and there is an expectation of further reduction. Steel mills are reducing inventory, while port inventory is increasing. The arrival of foreign ores has decreased, providing short - term support for the ore price. The economic work conference has boosted the price in the short term, but the price is still under pressure after the sentiment trading [1][6][7] Coke - **Market Situation**: The second round of spot price cuts has started. Some areas have implemented production restrictions due to environmental protection requirements. Although the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is okay, the supply in production areas has decreased slightly. Hot metal production decline has suppressed demand. Short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom [1][9][10] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Domestic coal production has decreased month - on - month, and clean coal inventory has continued to increase. Some coal mines have cut production due to approaching annual production targets. Mongolian coal prices are weak, but short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom due to the impact of weather on downstream delivery [1][12][13] Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The port ore price is firm, and the far - month quotation of Australian ore has increased slightly. Supply in production areas has increased, demand has weakened, and inventory has continued to increase. The final price of the iconic steel mill in December's steel procurement is 5,770 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: There has been a slight production cut in the main production areas, demand has continued to weaken, and inventory has increased significantly. The final price of the iconic steel mill in December's steel procurement is 5,660 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1][16][17]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。市场传言海关大豆进口延迟十五天，叠加南美天气干扰仍 | | | | 存，豆粕短期预计震荡行情为主，可关注逢低企稳短多机会。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | 短线调整 | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油本月前 10 日产量环比维持增加，利空市场情绪打压期价下跌。关注马棕 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 榈油后续数据情况。由于 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，也将限制棕榈油持续 | | | | 调整空间，关注调整后企稳短多机会。12 月预计偏震荡为主。 | | 豆油 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, short - term high - level decline, long - term short - allocation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level volatility [1] Core Views of the Report - The long - term strategic allocation value of precious metals such as gold and silver remains unchanged, benefiting from factors like global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. For base metals, the market conditions vary. Copper is favored in the long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand, while zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel face different degrees of pressure in the short - to - medium term. Industrial silicon may rebound, polysilicon runs strongly, and lithium carbonate shows high - level volatility [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver funds took profits and left the market, causing a significant decline. The Fed's liquidity release led to an emotional release for gold [2] - **Basic Logic**: The Fed announced a reserve management purchase tool, increasing the money supply. UK economic data raised the probability of a rate cut, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation process advanced. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. Silver follows the trading and delivery logic [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, focus on the 955 support for domestic gold and continue to hold long - term value - allocated positions. For silver, beware of high - volatility risks in the short term due to the narrowing of the gold - silver ratio and the existence of delivery risk events [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed a high - level correction, with concerns about the AI bubble leading to long - position profit - taking [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and it is the consumption off - season. The COMEX copper has a continuous siphon effect on global copper inventories [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, suggest taking profits on long positions when the price rises. In the long - term, remain optimistic about copper due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand. Short - term price ranges: Shanghai copper [89500, 93500] yuan/ton, London copper [11000, 12000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices declined, with LME zinc falling nearly 2% and Shanghai zinc following the decline [7] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and supply may shrink in the future. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing during the off - season [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc prices are falling from high levels. Enterprises are advised to actively arrange short - hedging positions when the price rises. In the long - term, zinc is a short - allocation in the sector. Price ranges: Shanghai zinc [23000, 23500] yuan/ton, London zinc [3100, 3200] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the rebound, while alumina showed an oversold rebound [10] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of aluminum enterprises in the southwest of China may increase in the dry season. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased, but the downstream demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of enterprises [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21000 - 22200] [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel faced pressure in the rebound [14] - **Industrial Logic**: Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel production target, but the inventory of nickel is still increasing. The stainless steel market has entered the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, recommend short - selling on the rebound for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [114000 - 117000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 rose first and then fell, and the position decreased significantly at the end of the session [18] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic production remains high, and overseas supply pressure has eased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles at the beginning of December was lower than expected, but the demand from the energy storage sector was strong. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and wait and see. The price range is [96100 - 97700] [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish stance on the energy and chemical industries, with specific ratings for each variety including "cautious short," "short consolidation," and "cautious pursuit of short" [1][3][7] 2. Report Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, geopolitical situations, and inventory levels. It concludes that most products face downward pressure due to factors like oversupply, weakening cost support, and seasonal demand changes [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core view: Cautious short. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the rebound of oil prices is bearish [1] - Main logic: Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and there is a seasonal supply surplus. OPEC+ is still in the expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production changes and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [430 - 440] [12] LPG - Core view: Cautious short. The downward trend of the cost - end (crude oil) and inventory accumulation have led to a weakening trend [1] - Main logic: The cost - end crude oil is in an adjustment phase with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience. However, inventory levels at ports and factories have increased month - on - month [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4100 - 4200] [16] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on device dynamics [17] - Main logic: Devices maintain high - level operations. Although there may be a short - term oversold rebound, the supply side is still sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. There is still pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6500 - 6650] [20] PP (Polypropylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on PDH device dynamics [21] - Main logic: The main contract is shifting, and weighted profit margins are compressed. In December, the demand side is entering the off - season, and the shutdown ratio has decreased. PDH profits are at a low level, and there is a lack of future maintenance plans, resulting in high inventory reduction pressure in the industry chain [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Consider long PP processing fees or short MTO05 for arbitrage. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6200 - 6350] [24] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core view: Short consolidation. Low - valuation support [25] - Main logic: There is a game between high - level operations and low profits. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are high and stable, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve without concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream. Recently, the prices of chlorine and alkali have both declined, and some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide method devices are losing cash flow [28] - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4250 - 4400] [28] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core view: Cautious short. Cost support is weakening, but the valuation is relatively low [29] - Main logic: The processing fees are generally low. Domestic devices are mainly under planned maintenance with a large - scale. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. The cost - end PX has been fluctuating weakly recently. There is no significant inventory pressure in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4550 - 4650] [31] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound and short. Supply - demand improvement vs. inventory accumulation expectation [32] - Main logic: The overall domestic operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of MEG is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [33] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on a rebound. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3615 - 3695] [34] Methanol - Core view: Oscillate weakly. The accelerated reduction of port inventory does not change the bearish fundamentals [35] - Main logic: The spot price in Taicang has weakened, and port inventory has decreased month - on - month. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high - level, and overseas devices have reduced their loads. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 1.3 million tons, and there is still supply - side pressure. The demand side has slightly weakened, and the cost support has weakened [37] - Strategy: The arrival volume in December is still high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The 05 contract of methanol oscillates weakly with limited downward space [39] Urea - Core view: Cautious short. Weak reality vs. strong expectation [40] - Main logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily output of urea is high, but the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets is not closed [41] - Strategy: Cautious short. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract. Pay attention to the price range of UR05 at [1655 - 1685] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: The supply shortage has eased, and the gas price has declined [44] - Main logic: The demand side has entered the peak consumption season, but the gas price has reached a high - level in recent years. Currently, the supply side is relatively abundant, putting downward pressure on the gas price [47] - Strategy: The demand side has support during the winter consumption season, but the high gas price and sufficient supply lead to downward pressure. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.021 - 4.406] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Oscillate within a range. Cost - end bearishness vs. South American geopolitical uncertainties [48] - Main logic: The price trend is mainly determined by the cost - end crude oil, which is weak. The supply - demand relationship is also weak. Recently, focus on the South American geopolitical situation [50] - Strategy: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially close short positions due to the increasing South American geopolitical uncertainties. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [51] Glass - Core view: The short trend continues. The supply reduction is insufficient [52] - Main logic: Both the futures and spot prices have declined, and the basis has strengthened. The daily melting volume remains at 155,000 tons, and there is an expectation of water release from a production line in South China this week. There are no new ignition production lines. The profits of various processes have recovered, and the supply is unlikely to be significantly reduced. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and downstream processing orders are at a low level compared to the same period, resulting in weak demand. Although the factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive months, the absolute inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is still high [55] - Strategy: Short - term moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [930 - 980] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Short consolidation. High - level cancellation of warehouse receipts [56] - Main logic: Warehouse receipts have been cancelled at a high - level. The factory inventory has decreased for five consecutive months but is still at a high level compared to the same period. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and there is a plan to put into operation a 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December, maintaining a loose supply pattern. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass remains at 244,000 tons, with insufficient demand support [59] - Strategy: Moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1080 - 1130] [59]

PVC周报： 关注装置动态，底部震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/12/14 证监许可[2025]75号 开工持续高位，盘面破位下跌 【本周复盘】 本周PVC低开低走，周线2连阴。周初低开12点在4419，短暂冲至周内高点4442，随后延续12月3日以来的 下跌趋势，周一跌破主力历史低点4405，至周五加速下跌，跌至历史低点4204，最终收在4420（周环比- 206）。全周在4204至4442间运行，振幅238点。 【下周展望】 短期基本面弱势难改，国内开工居高不下，预计年内上中游依旧维持高库存结构。中央经济工作会议再提 "深入整治内卷式竞争"。考虑到政策落地仍需较长的时间，在供给端未能出现大量实质性减产之前，基 本面上行驱动不足。当前价格下，全工艺均已亏理论现金流，考虑到后市烧碱基本面疲弱，电石表现坚挺 ，利润进一步压缩空间极其有限，前期空单可陆续平仓。关注装置能否出现集中性减产。 【策略】 风险提示：1）上行风险：宏观利好政策超预期、春季检修超预期；2）下行风险：出口转弱、氯碱成本支 撑 ...