1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different futures varieties have distinct market outlooks. Some lack upward drivers, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and some are affected by international trade policies and weather conditions [1]. - **Specific to each variety**: - **Bean meal**: Lacks continuous upward drivers. The Brazilian rainfall forecast is good, and the US - China trade negotiation results regarding soybean import tariffs are still unresolved. Spot oil mills have a reduced sales pressure and a price - holding mentality. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Follow the trend of bean meal. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recent statements from Canada have cooled the market's expectation of tariff improvement. The rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][5]. - **Palm oil**: Enters a phase of weakening supply - demand. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in October and November. Import profit inversion may lead to insufficient imports in December and January, and the price is in low - level consolidation [1][7]. - **Soybean oil**: Short - term supply is sufficient, with domestic inventory higher than the five - year average. The US - China tariff issue has not fully resolved the cost problem of US soybean imports. There is a lack of strong upward drivers, and the recent increase is regarded as a short - term rebound [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The oil mill's operating rate is low, and there is a mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market. It has entered the consumption peak season, but the spot market has high prices with few transactions. The cooling expectation of Sino - Canadian trade relations has led to a stop - falling rebound, but the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: The supply is pressured by the increase in cotton output from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The domestic new cotton harvest is almost completed, with commercial inventory exceeding the same - period level. Downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is fast, and short - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [1][11]. - **Red dates**: The market has a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is becoming more certain. High - inventory old dates and limited downstream acceptance of new products may lead to a weakening and volatile market. Short - selling operations should be carried out carefully according to the purchase price and progress [1][14]. - **Live pigs**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. The market should be vigilant about the short - term rebound risk of the 01 contract. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts. Attention can be paid to the 03 contract in the off - season and the reverse - spread arbitrage opportunities in the far - month contracts [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 114.2989 yuan/ton, down 8.69 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.9 million tons, a decrease of 10.20 million tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.79 million tons, a decrease of 40.50 million tons (5.39%); the bean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, an increase of 9.84 million tons (9.33%) [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2497 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2626.84 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 353.023 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8660 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average price was 8640 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The import cost was 8857 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons (2.36%) from the previous week [7]. Cotton - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 284.78 million tons, an increase of 52 million tons [8]. - **International situation**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is about 14,000 tons. In Pakistan, the new - cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67%, slower than last year [9]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking progress is 95.3%, the inspection volume exceeds 2.4 million tons, the delivery progress is 90.4%, and the sales progress is 18.3%. The national commercial inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak, but the export is expected to stabilize [10]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9590 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from the previous week [12]. - **Production area situation**: In Xinjiang, the red dates have started to be harvested on a large scale. The acquisition prices in different regions are relatively stable. The market's expectation of a new - season production reduction has been adjusted [14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2601) closed at 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national sample enterprises' monthly live - pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, an increase of 5.61 million tons (0.15%); the monthly live - pig slaughter volume was 11.9653 million heads, an increase of 1.2677 million heads (11.85%) [15]. - **Supply and demand situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in November has decreased, but the overall slaughter pressure may still be high. In the medium term, the live - pig slaughter volume in Q1 2026 is expected to increase linearly. In the long term, the capacity reduction of breeding sows is not obvious. The downstream demand is gradually stabilizing [16][17].

中辉有色观点 | 11 | I | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | C | 11 | T | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国政府继续关门、数据缺失、地缘交恶,美国就业市场受到挑战。黄金价格有支撑。 | | 黄金 | 长线做多 | 黄金中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，地缘秩序重塑，央行继续买黄金，战略配置价值不 | | ★ | | 变。 | | 白银 | | 白银交易逻辑不变，盘面跟随相关市场波动，基本面上，长期全球政策刺激白银需 | | ★ | 长线做多 | 求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。11200 支撑较强。长线做多持有 | | | | 美国政府关门持续，10 月非农和通胀数据缺失，美联储 12 月降息预期摇摆，铜淡季 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 累库，高位盘整，建议暂时观望，等待右侧信号，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 求爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 短期锌矿供应偏紧，国内冶炼厂冬储备库积极，锌精矿加工费延续回落，消费淡季， | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 需求转弱，锌窄幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel products (Rebar and Hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][9][10] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][12][13] - **Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish for silicomanganese; Cautiously bearish for ferrosilicon [1][16][17] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel products**: Rebar shows a supply-demand weakness in the off - season with production and apparent demand decreasing. Hot - rolled coil has falling production and demand, and a slight inverse - seasonal increase in inventory. Both are under pressure from the falling hot metal production [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: This week, hot metal production decreased significantly due to environmental control and steel mill maintenance. With steel mills reducing inventory and ports accumulating inventory, and large - scale arrival of foreign ores, the short - term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The third round of price increase has been implemented, and the fourth round has started. Although coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved, they are still mostly in the loss state. The short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay, and it runs in a range following the coking coal price [1][9][10] - **Coking coal**: Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine operating rate has decreased. With low inventory, sufficient pre - orders, and good sales, the short - term supply - demand pattern is healthy, and the price is expected to maintain a range [1][12][13] - **Ferroalloys**: For silicomanganese, supply is slightly down but still high, and demand is weakening with increasing inventory. For ferrosilicon, production area operating rate is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing significantly [1][16][17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, inventory decreased with a weaker - than - seasonal decline. It is testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand declined, inventory increased slightly against the season, showing inventory pressure. It runs in a medium - term range and may have short - term rebounds after continuous declines [1][4][5] Iron Ore - The hot metal production decreased significantly this week. Steel mills are reducing inventory, ports are accumulating inventory, and foreign ore arrivals have increased. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [1][6][7] Coke - The third - round price increase has been completed, and the fourth round has started. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in losses. The short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay, and it follows the coking coal price [1][9][10] Coking Coal - Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine operating rate decreased. With low inventory, sufficient pre - orders, and good sales, the short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1][12][13] Ferroalloys - **Silicomanganese**: Supply in the production area decreased slightly but is still at a high level. Demand is weakening, inventory is increasing with a slower growth rate. The short - term cost has some support [1][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: The production area operating rate is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing significantly. Although the cost has some support, the fundamental situation is loose, and it is advisable to short on rallies [1][16][17]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价承压下行。11 月 2 日，OPEC+计划于 | | 原油 | 12 谨慎看空 | 月继续扩产 13.7 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费 | | ★ | | 淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 | | | | 压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单持有，可轻仓加空并 | | | | 购买看涨期权。 | | | | 液化气跟随成本端油价走弱。美国制裁俄罗斯风险释放，油价回调，沙特 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 再度下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；供需基本面改善，供给量小幅下降， | | ★ | | 下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强；库存端，港口与厂内库存均下降。 | | | | 策略：空单持有。 | | L | | 成本支撑转弱，基差走强，但现货仍未止跌。装置陆续重启，国内开工季 | | | 空头延续 | 节性回升，10 月进口到港较多，后市仍存增加预期，供给延续宽松格局。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Lacks continuous bullish drivers. Brazilian rainfall is expected to be good in the next 15 days. The result of the China - US meeting shows that the issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved. It continued to trade in a narrow range at a high level yesterday. Due to the lack of bullish drivers, be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the planting weather of Brazilian soybeans [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. High port inventories and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market. However, the unresolved China - Canada trade issue still supports far - month contracts, while near - month contracts are weak. Although rapeseed meal rose yesterday, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. It is expected to continue to build inventories in October and November in Malaysia. But import may be insufficient in December and January due to negative import margins, and prices rebounded at the end of the inventory - building hype in October [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation. There is a lack of bullish support in the US soybean oil market. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher than the five - year average, with sufficient short - term supply. Although it rose yesterday, there is no strong bullish driver for now [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Low oil mill operating rates, the mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market, and the consumption peak season have led to a stop - falling rebound. However, the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: Upward pressure. The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries puts pressure on prices. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, the Indian MSP policy provides some support. Domestically, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the commercial inventory has recovered, increasing spot pressure. Downstream demand is weak, and there is resistance to upward movement [1]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. With large - scale harvest, the new - season output is becoming more certain. High old - season inventories and limited acceptance of new products by downstream may lead to weakening prices. Be cautious when short - selling and pay attention to the purchase price and progress [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant against rebounds. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high as the supply was postponed to December by second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract. Consider the 03 contract and potential reverse - spread opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 3068 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3117.43 yuan/ton, up 25.14 yuan or 0.81% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 962.9 million tons, down 10.20 million tons from last week and up 288.44 million tons from last year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventories were 710.79 million tons, down 40.50 million tons or 5.39% from last week and up 160.05 million tons or 29.06% from last year. The soybean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, up 9.84 million tons or 9.33% from last week and up 16.89 million tons or 17.16% from last year [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 2549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 31, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventories were 0 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last week. Rapeseed meal inventories were 0.71 million tons, unchanged from last week, and unexecuted contracts were 0.71 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last week [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 59.28 million tons, down 1.43 million tons or 2.36% from last week and up 8.74 million tons or 17.29% from last year [8]. - **Production and Export Data**: From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 5.19% - 26.54% depending on different sources [8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.03% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The national cotton commercial inventory was 232.61 million tons, up 48 million tons from the previous value. The Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 183.9 million tons, up 48 million tons [9]. - **Production Data**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. Domestically, the new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the ginning volume exceeds 208 million tons, and the selling progress is 14.2% [10][11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 9705 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, up 193 tons from the previous value [13]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The main contract's closing price was 11940 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12030 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.50% [16]. - **Inventory and Output Data**: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, up 5.61 million tons or 0.15% from the previous month. The monthly output was 1196.53 million tons, up 126.77 million tons or 11.85% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Bullish**: Coke, Coking Coal [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Output and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, showing off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Inventory decreased month-on-month, with a decline weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. It is currently near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Apparent demand and output both declined, and inventory increased slightly against the season, indicating certain inventory pressure. The falling hot metal output weakens the demand support for raw materials. It runs in a medium-term range and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - Iron Ore: This week, hot metal output decreased significantly month-on-month due to environmental controls in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of phased macro positive factors, the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - Coke: The third round of price increases is gradually being implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. The falling hot metal output, poor steel mill profits, and increased blast furnace maintenance are observed. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short-term restocking enthusiasm is acceptable. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price to run strongly [1][9]. - Coking Coal: Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine开工率 has decreased again month-on-month. The uncertainty of the political turmoil in Mongolia remains. Currently, the coal mine inventory level is low, pre - sales orders are sufficient, and the overall shipment situation is still good. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [1][12]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase but at a slower pace. The price of manganese ore at ports has slightly increased, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price [1][16]. - Ferrosilicon: The开工率 in the production area continues to increase, downstream demand weakens marginally, and inventory continues to increase significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after warrant cancellation. Although the short - term coal price is running strongly and provides some cost support, its own fundamentals have turned to a loose state, and it is advisable to short on rallies [1][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3037 with a rise of 13; Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3256 with a rise of 3. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and spot prices [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Rebar shows off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand, and hot-rolled coil has inventory pressure. Both are affected by the falling hot metal output [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar tests the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels; hot-rolled coil runs in a medium - term range and may fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Hot metal output decreased due to environmental controls and mill maintenance. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory, and the arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly. The static fundamentals are neutral to bearish [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and increased supply put pressure on the ore price [7]. 3.3 Coke - **Price and Data**: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The third - round price increase is being implemented, and there are differences in the fourth - round increase. Coke enterprises' profits are slightly improved but mostly in loss. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bullish, following the coking coal price to run strongly [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price and Data**: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and other data [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, and the uncertainty of Mongolia's political situation remains. The supply - demand pattern is tight [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bullish, with the price expected to run strongly [13]. 3.5 Ferrous Alloys - **Price Information**: There are detailed price, spread, and weekly production and inventory data for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Manganese silicon supply has decreased slightly but is still high, and downstream demand has weakened. Ferrosilicon's开工率 has increased, and inventory has increased significantly [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish on manganese silicon due to short - term cost support; bearish on ferrosilicon as its fundamentals are loose, and it is advisable to short on rallies [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each metal variety: - Long - term long positions are recommended for gold, silver, and copper [1]. - Rebound - selling short is suggested for zinc [1]. - A bearish view is taken on lead, tin, and nickel, with lead under pressure, tin and nickel having a high - level bearish trend [1]. - Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and polycrystalline silicon recommends buying on dips [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a high - level adjustment [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various factors such as employment data, government shutdowns, inflation data, and geopolitical situations in the United States, which have an impact on the prices of different metals. It provides investment strategies for each metal based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market trends [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Long - term long positions are recommended. Gold has support due to factors like the US government shutdown, the debate on Trump's tariff legality, and geopolitical tensions. Silver follows related markets and has long - term demand supported by global policies [1][3]. - **Main Logic**: The US employment market is weakening, with a significant increase in corporate lay - offs in October. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff legality may lead to a large - scale tax refund. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the restructuring of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider entering the market for the medium and long - term. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11,200 for silver. Hold long - term value - allocation positions [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Long - term holding is recommended, and short - term light - position buying on dips is suggested [1][7]. - **Main Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased year - on - year, and this trend is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. The US employment data is weakening, the government shutdown is ongoing, inflation data is lacking, and the Fed's hawkish stance has returned [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips with a light position in the short - term. Hold long - term strategic positions. For industrial hedging, add option protection, reduce positions, and strictly control risks. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of 84,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Rebound - selling short is recommended in the medium and long - term, and short - term range - bound trading is expected [1][10]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The market expects domestic smelters to reduce production in November due to raw material shortages. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is weakening [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price rebounds. In the medium and long - term, maintain the view of selling short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10]. Aluminium - **Core View**: Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall in the short - term [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminium production has decreased, while China's production capacity remains high. The inventory reduction of aluminium ingots in major consumption areas has slowed down, and consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price of Shanghai aluminium rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel is expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel inventories have reached a high level, and domestic refined nickel inventories have been accumulating. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 119,000 - 121,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The total inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks, and the destocking amplitude has expanded. Although production is increasing, terminal demand remains strong [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of 79,800 - 82,000 yuan/ton [21].

Report Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: It shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with high inventory in Hangzhou. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. The significant decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. It has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term. Currently, it has fallen near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Both apparent demand and production have rebounded, and inventory has decreased slightly but remains higher than the same period in previous years. The large decline in hot metal production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: This week, there is a significant week - on - week decrease in hot metal due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and loss - driven maintenance of some steel mills. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and the sustainability of maintenance needs to be monitored. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ore has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of short - term macro - positive factors, the ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - **Coke**: The third round of price increase is expected to be fully implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Recently, the profits of coke enterprises have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. The hot metal production has declined from a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a moderately low level, with short - term replenishment enthusiasm. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price in a range - bound operation [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate has decreased slightly due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic needs to be monitored. The exchange has issued an opinion announcement on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear, and it has limited impact on listed contracts. Currently, coal mine shipments are still good, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, with prices expected to be strong [1][12]. - **Silicomanganese**: The production area supply is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase compared to the previous period. The price of manganese ore has risen slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but it is still cautiously bearish [1][16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The production area supply remains at a high level, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it is treated bearishly [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3024 with a decline of 20; Rebar 05 is at 3094 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is at 3133 with a decline of 11. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3253 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3260 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3283 with a decline of 13. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also show certain declines [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For rebar, it has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term and may fluctuate at low levels near the support of 3000. For hot - rolled coil, it operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Not provided in the given text. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish. Due to production reduction disturbances and increased supply, the ore price is under pressure [7]. Coke - **Price Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1753.0, up 24.0 from the previous value; the 01 basis is - 108, down 24.0. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions have increased to varying degrees [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and there are differences in the fourth - round price increase [10]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1268.5, up 15.5 from the previous value; the 01 basis is 331, down 15.5. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remain stable [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and prices are expected to be strong [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5776, up 22; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5560, up 50. Spot prices in different regions and basis also show corresponding changes [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For silicomanganese, it is cautiously bearish as the cost side provides some short - term support. For ferrosilicon, it is bearishly treated due to loose fundamentals and upward pressure on coal prices [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2][4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [7] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus in the off - season is the core driver, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and pause in early next year [2][10]. - LPG: Cost - side is bearish, and the price of LPG is weakening. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side impact is significant [2]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum [2]. - PP: The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high, and the bearish trend continues. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [2]. - PVC: Low valuation vs. weak reality, the bearish trend continues. Pay attention to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - PX: Supply - demand is short - term improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices [2]. - PTA: Supply - demand is slightly improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - MEG: Low valuation vs. oil price pressure, the trend is weakly oscillating. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - Methanol: The fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory destocking. High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices [4]. - Urea: Low valuation vs. weak fundamentals. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Supply pressure increases, and winter demand and export benefits are limited [4]. - Natural gas: With the decline in temperature, the demand peak season is coming, and gas prices are likely to rise. The demand side has support, and the supply side is sufficient [7]. - Asphalt: Cost is weakening, and supply - demand is both decreasing. Asphalt is under downward pressure. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient [7]. - Glass: Capital game is intense, and it is recommended to participate with caution. The fundamental pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [7]. - Soda ash: Inventory is slightly destocked, and the bearish trend rebounds. Supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mostly rigid [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.59%, Brent dropped 1.43%, and SC dropped 0.67% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States may reduce India's oil purchases. The core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and global crude oil inventory is accelerating accumulation [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 next year. Russia's oil exports to India have decreased. US crude oil inventory has increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 5, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand side has some resilience. The inventory in ports has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Up - and mid - stream inventories are at a high level. Demand is at the end of the peak season, and there is high inventory - removal pressure. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [6450 - 6600] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have dropped, and cost support is weakening. The inventory is high, and the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is being compressed [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of V [4550 - 4700] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are reducing load, and overseas devices are increasing load. Demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels. Oil prices are in a loose supply - demand pattern [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX [6560 - 6660] [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA01 contract closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low. Later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of TA [4540 - 4610] [33]. MEG - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are increasing load. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3880 - 3940] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices. Look for opportunities in MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of MA [2095 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing. Demand has slightly improved, but winter demand and export benefits are limited. Inventory is at a high level but is decreasing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.573 US dollars per million British thermal units [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are released, and the demand side has support due to the arrival of the heating season. The supply side is sufficient [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.262 - 4.458]. The demand for heating is increasing, but the upward pressure is rising [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 5, the BU main contract closed at 3,166 yuan/ton [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost - side crude oil. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is increasing [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on a small scale. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3200] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume is low but increasing. The fundamental pattern is loose, and inventory is high. Deep - processing orders are at a low level [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The pattern is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1060 - 1110] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [60]. - **Basic Logic**: Factory inventory is slightly decreasing but remains high. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply is in a loose pattern [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [61].

Mysteel：截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，全国港口大豆库存 962.9 万吨，环比上周减少 10.20 万吨； 同比去年增加 288.44 万吨。125 家油厂大豆库存为大豆库存 710.79 万吨，较上周减少 40.50 万吨，减 幅 5.39%，同比去年增加 160.05 万吨，增幅 29.06%；豆粕库存 115.3 万吨，较上周增加 9.84 万吨， 增幅 9.33%，同比去年增加 16.89 万吨，增幅 17.16%；全国主要地区的 50 家饲料企业样本调查显示， 截止到 2025 年 10 月 31 日（第 44 周），国内饲料企业豆粕库存天数（物理库存天数）为 8.02 天，较 10 月 24 日增加 0.06 天，涨幅 0.78%，较去年同期增加 7.22%。 现货方面，华东市场油厂开机相对高位，催提现象仍较普遍，终端采购补库节奏观望中平缓。 中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决，为此，昨日豆粕价格继续炒作收涨。 短线看多，原多单可暂继续持有，追多需谨慎。关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 注仅为当前市场多空力量的客观对比，不预示未来价格必然向该方向运行（如"红色"不代表" ...