Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - micro resonance has led copper prices to reach a new historical high. It is recommended to hold long positions and set trailing stops. In the long - term, copper is still favored. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [89,500, 96,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11,000, 12,000] US dollars/ton [6][107] - The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December, and Powell's statement was more dovish than expected. The domestic Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized counter - cyclical adjustment and loose fiscal policies [6][107] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Fed's interest rate cut, domestic policy support, supply reduction in the copper smelting industry, and strong demand for green copper are the main factors driving the rise in copper prices. However, high copper prices suppress demand, and there are risks such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, copper mine disruptions, and insufficient demand [6][26][107] - It is recommended to hold long positions, set trailing stops, and industries should adjust their hedging strategies according to their own situations [6][107] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Situation**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75% in December, the sixth cut since the start of the interest - rate - cut cycle in September 2024 and the third in 2025. The decision - making process showed internal differences. US employment growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose. Although inflation was still above the 2% target, Powell believed that inflation was close to the target after excluding tariff effects. The Fed announced a short - term Treasury purchase program starting on December 12, with an initial monthly scale of $40 billion [10] - **Japanese Economic Situation**: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in its December 18 - 19 meeting with a probability of 85% - 90%. Japanese inflation has been high, and the yen has faced significant depreciation pressure [11] - **Chinese Economic Situation**: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized high - quality and sustainable development, with more proactive fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and measures to promote market competition and the healthy development of various industries [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: Global copper concentrate supply has been tight in 2025 due to the over - expected production cuts and shutdowns of many large copper mines. China's imports of copper concentrate increased in October 2025. The CSPT group reached a consensus to reduce the production capacity of copper mines by more than 10% in 2026, resist unreasonable pricing, and prevent malicious competition [47][48][49] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The International Copper Study Group expects a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in the global refined copper market in 2026 [49] - **Demand Side** - **Green Copper Demand**: Renewable energy systems and new energy vehicles have a high demand for copper. The demand for copper in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries is growing [86] - **Traditional Demand**: The power industry maintains strong investment, while the home appliance industry is expected to have a front - high - and - back - low performance in 2025. High copper prices have a significant inhibitory effect on demand, and downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing during the off - season [82][86] 4. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate within a certain range. It is recommended to hold long positions and set trailing stops, and industries should adjust their hedging strategies according to their own situations [6][107] - In the long term, due to the strategic importance of copper in the Sino - US game, the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the explosive demand for green copper, copper is still a promising investment target [6][107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal fundamentals will remain weak in the future. The coking coal index contract has fallen below the 1000 - yuan integer mark, and the market bearish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to short on rallies [4]. - This week, black commodities fell across the board, with coking coal being the weakest in the sector. The second - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coking Coal Market - **Market Overview**: Coking coal was the weakest in the black commodity sector this week, with the main contract down more than 10% week - on - week. Supply is at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating. Steel mill maintenance has increased, suppressing raw material demand. The port clearance volume has risen, and the coking coal futures discount has deepened. The second - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved [6]. - **Cost and Basis**: The report provides the coking coal warehouse receipt cost of different varieties and locations, as well as the basis and month - spread data of coking coal contracts [10][14]. - **Supply**: - **Mine Production**: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 189.79 million tons this week, a decrease of 0.63 million tons week - on - week; the daily average output of clean coal was 75 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons week - on - week [22]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 27.92 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate was 38.21%, an increase of 1.68% week - on - week [23]. - **Imports**: From January to October, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. In October, Mongolian coal imports decreased by 10.6% month - on - month and increased by 36.4% year - on - year [24][27]. - **Auction Data**: The coking coal auction挂牌量 increased by 28.24 million tons week - on - week, the成交 rate increased by 12.66 percentage points, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 12.66 percentage points [30]. - **Inventory**: There are data on coking coal total inventory and inventory distribution, but specific inventory values are not detailed in the summary requirements [31][33]. 3.2 Coke Market - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions has increased week - on - week, with national coking profit increasing from 30 to 44 [41]. - **Basis**: The report provides the basis and month - spread data of coke contracts [44]. - **Supply and Demand**: There are sections on coke supply and demand, but specific data details are not elaborated in the summary [48][50]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 20.81 million tons week - on - week to 903.8 million tons. The inventory of steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports showed different changes [61]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts and Futures Positions**: There are sections on registered warehouse receipts and futures positions, but no specific summary of data is made here [62][64]. - **TOP20 Seats Net Long Positions**: There is information on the net long positions of the TOP20 seats in coking coal and coke since July 1, but no specific data summary is provided [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand balance and will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend in the short term. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Overview - China's November CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month, the highest since March 2024; PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. November exports in US dollars were 330.3 billion, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The M2 balance in November was 336.99 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, an 8.5% year - on - year increase, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75% [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 24,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. There are still uncertainties about the resumption of production of leading large - scale manufacturers. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of overseas lithium mines. As of December 12, the output of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38% [3][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 297,000, a 32% year - on - year decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 21.781 million, a 5% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 298,000, a 40% year - on - year decrease and an 18% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 27.063 million, a 10% year - on - year increase. The sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, while the orders for energy - storage projects at home and abroad were strong. Overall, the production schedule of downstream material manufacturers increased slightly month - on - month, still supporting the demand for lithium carbonate [3][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of mining ends increased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of December 11, the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 19,161 tons, a 1,606 - ton decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot quotes remained stable this week. The discount range of the main contract of electric - grade lithium carbonate was concentrated between 1,500 and 2,500 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate maintained a large discount. Lithium salt factories mainly executed long - term contracts, and the shipment of spot orders was limited. In the short term, the main contract will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend. The domestic output remains high and is expected to continue to grow with the arrival of overseas lithium mines. The overseas supply pressure has eased. Although the sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, the overall demand from downstream material manufacturers still supported the price [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - As of December 12, the prices of some products increased, such as 6% spodumene CIF at $1,215 per ton, a 4.74% increase compared to last week; African SC 5% at $900 per ton, a 3.45% increase compared to last week; battery - grade lithium carbonate at 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.26% increase compared to last week. Some product prices remained unchanged, such as lepidolite at 3,585 yuan per ton, and metal lithium at 610,000 yuan per ton [7]. 3.8 This Week's Market Review - As of December 12, LC2605 closed at 97,720 yuan per ton, a 6% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.3% increase compared to last week. The main contract increased significantly this week, approaching the previous high. According to the supply - demand balance sheet, lithium carbonate will continue the de - stocking trend in December, and the price will remain high [9]. 3.9 Production of Related Products - As of December 12, the production of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The production of lithium hydroxide was 6,350 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 103,322 tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 90.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7% [11][13][16]. 3.10 Inventory of Related Products - As of December 11, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decline to a historical low. As of December 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,136 tons, a 134 - ton decrease compared to last week [34][38]. 3.11 Cost Side - As of December 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [51][54].

报告日期：2025/12/12 分析师：陈为昌 中辉期货钢材周报 铁水减量明显，负反馈风险上升 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉黑色研究团队 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块整体回落，涨跌差异仍然明显，螺纹主力合约周跌3%，热卷跌2.7%，铁矿跌 1.1%，焦炭跌6.9%，焦煤跌10.8%，双焦表现仍然偏弱。宏观方面，本周的政治局会议及经济工作会议总体维 持前期思路，未有明显变化，尤其对房地产未有新的表述，同时对"反内卷"的表述比较有限，市场情绪未能得 到提振。供需层面看，螺纹钢产量下降较多，但需求同步下降，库存基本维持此前下降速度。热卷供需均小幅 回落，库存去化仍然不畅。铁水产量降至230万吨以下，对原料需求形成压制。 【策略建议】：这一时间段的向上驱动通常由宏观政策提供，但在"反内卷"情绪退却后，目前及接下来一段时 间将缺少新的政策提振。钢材需求未有起色，叠加焦煤进口放量预期以及铁矿港口库存高企的现状，原料端压 力或继续上升。钢材价格短期或有低位反复，但中期存在负反馈带来的螺旋式下跌风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal is expected to have a short - term adjustment. Although the procurement of US soybeans has started, the US market has doubts about the export prospects, and the weak export shipment data has led to the consolidation of US soybeans at a high level. The current supply is sufficient, but due to rumors of import delays and South American weather disturbances, the previous short positions can consider taking profits gradually [1][4]. - The rapeseed meal is also in a short - term adjustment, following the trend of soybean meal. The fundamentals have no major fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the import policy of Australian rapeseed and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. - The palm oil is in short - term consolidation. The expected production reduction in Southeast Asia in December limits its adjustment space, and attention should be paid to the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month [1][9]. - The soybean oil is expected to have a short - term bullish oscillation. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and with the end of the US Department of Agriculture's December report and the stabilization of the palm oil market, it shows a bullish tendency [1]. - The rapeseed oil is in a range - bound oscillation. The import supply is relatively low year - on - year, and it is not advisable to blindly short sell [1]. - The cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. The international market focuses on weather, and the domestic new cotton inspection is more than half completed with strong sales. However, attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback risk in mid - and late December [1][13]. - The jujube is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the high inventory still suppresses the price, most of the premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been squeezed out, and short - term rebound opportunities can be focused on [1][17]. - The live pig is recommended to be sold short on rebounds. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, and the 01 contract should avoid short - term long - position risks, while the 03 contract can be short - sold after a rebound. Attention should also be paid to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.51% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% from last week. The physical inventory days of feed enterprises increased [4]. - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have little change, the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking process of soybean meal is slow, which suppresses the increase of the spot basis [4]. - Rumors of 15 - day import delays and South American weather disturbances have led to a temporary halt in the decline of soybean meal, and previous short positions can consider taking profits [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 0 million tons [7]. - The spot market is dull, with weak downstream purchasing willingness and limited effective demand. There is no strong driving force and it follows the trend of soybean meal. The short - term trend is considered to be above 2270 yuan [1][7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 4.62% from last week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month [9]. - In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, and export decreased, while the inventory increased. The expected production reduction in December limits the adjustment space, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of stabilizing and going long [1][9]. Cotton - International: In the US, the new cotton harvest is nearly complete, with a progress of 79% and a inspection progress of about 40.2%. In India, the new cotton daily listing volume is 16,000 - 20,000 tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - Domestic: The new cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 4.95 million tons, and the sales progress is fast. The total production is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The import volume in October was 223,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [12]. - The ICE market is expected to oscillate. The domestic cost support is strengthened, but attention should be paid to the production increase forecast. The demand shows resilience, and long positions can be considered on dips, with attention to the medium - and long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. Jujube - Supply: The acquisition in some areas is ending, and the prices in some areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from last week [16]. - Demand: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly new jujubes, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [16]. - The high inventory suppresses the price, but most of the premium has been squeezed out. The short - term rebound opportunities can be focused on while maintaining a bearish attitude in the long - term [1][17]. Live Pig - Short - and medium - term: The supply pressure is high. The planned slaughter in December increases by 3.2%. The supply pressure will be gradually released around the Winter Solstice. The mid - term supply pressure will be relieved as the number of new - born piglets decreases [20][21]. - Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is high. The industry is still in the early stage of losses [20]. - Demand: The pickling and enema activities in the southwest region are increasing, and the market is turning to a situation of both supply and demand being prosperous [20]. - The 01 contract should avoid short - term long - position risks, the 03 contract can be short - sold after a rebound, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [3] - Methanol: Bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure, with many varieties facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related challenges. Some varieties are facing supply surpluses, while others are affected by weakening cost support and uncertain demand prospects [1][3][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.49%, and SC down 0.70% [7][8] - **Key drivers**: The supply surplus persists, with global crude oil inventories accelerating accumulation. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and geopolitical factors may impact the market [9] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: US oil rig count increased, and global demand is expected to grow slightly in the future. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic reserve inventories changed [10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [11] LPG - **Market performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [13] - **Key drivers**: The downward trend of crude oil prices drags down LPG, and inventory accumulation adds downward pressure [14] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Refinery production increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but inventory is rising [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] L - **Market performance**: The price of L contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [17] - **Key drivers**: Cost support weakens, and the market is in a contango structure. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weakening [19] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic production starts to pick up seasonally, and port arrivals are sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing [19] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of L [6400 - 6550] [19] PP - **Market performance**: The price of PP contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [21] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and PDH device maintenance willingness is low. Inventory pressure is high, and demand is entering the off - season [23] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The parking ratio is declining, and there are few maintenance plans in the future. The OPEC+ production increase cycle may lead to further oil price declines [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Consider arbitrage strategies. Focus on the range of PP [6100 - 6250] and propylene [5600 - 5750] [23] PVC - **Market performance**: The price of PVC contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [24] - **Key drivers**: The market is at a discount to the spot, and the high - production - low - profit situation persists. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of northwest devices [26] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Up - middle stream inventory remains high, and demand is in the off - season. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is being compressed [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term; wait for inventory to decline for long - term long positions. Focus on the range of V [4200 - 4350] [26] PTA - **Market performance**: The price of PTA contracts increased, and spreads and processing fees changed [27] - **Key drivers**: Processing fees are low, and device maintenance intensity is high. Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is expected to weaken [28] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Multiple domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, and downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Focus on the range of TA [4580 - 4670] [29] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market performance**: The price of MEG contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [30] - **Key drivers**: Domestic and overseas device loads decreased, but demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [31] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or reduced load, downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. Social inventory is slightly accumulating [31] - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [3540 - 3630] [32] Methanol - **Market performance**: The price of methanol contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [33] - **Key drivers**: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the cost support weakens. Supply pressure is large, and demand changes little [34] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, overseas devices are reducing load, and port inventory is gradually decreasing. Demand from MTO and traditional downstream industries has different trends [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract, and look for low - buying opportunities on the 05 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 [2011 - 2075] [36] Urea - **Market performance**: The price of urea contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [37] - **Key drivers**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening, and supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is short - term good but lacks sustainability [38] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Urea daily production is high, but some gas - head enterprises will stop for maintenance. Demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is increasing, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [39] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Focus on the range of UR [1620 - 1650] [40] Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On December 10, the NG main contract closed at 4.595 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.46% [43] - **Key drivers**: Demand enters the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the current supply is relatively abundant, putting pressure on the price [44] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms decreased, US production is expected to be stable, and inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.021 - 4.406] [45] Asphalt - **Market performance**: On December 11, the BU main contract closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [47] - **Key drivers**: The price is mainly affected by the decline of crude oil prices and the weak supply - demand situation [48] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: December refinery production is expected to decline, demand is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing [48] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2850 - 2950] [49] Glass - **Market performance**: The price of glass contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [51] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the industrial outlook is weak. Supply is difficult to shrink significantly, and demand is weak [53] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: A production line in East China restarted, and the daily melting volume remained stable. Real - estate - related demand is weak, and inventory is high [53] - **Strategy recommendation**: Bearish in the short - term, wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [930 - 980] [53] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The price of soda ash contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [55] - **Key drivers**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly, the basis weakened, and warehouse receipts remained high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is insufficient [57] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Factory inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and a large - scale device is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The cold - repair expectation of float glass increases [57] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of SA [1080 - 1130] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][14][15] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish for manganese silicon; bearish for ferrosilicon [1][18][19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Production and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, with absolute levels at the lowest for the same period. Inventory depletion was normal. Macro policies had limited impact on the market. With hot metal production dropping below 2.3 million tons, raw material demand was under pressure. In the medium term, it may fluctuate within a range due to weak drivers and low valuation [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand continued to decline slightly. Inventory reduction was slow, remaining at the highest level in recent years. Spot prices were relatively weak, with the basis fluctuating around par. In the medium term, it will operate within a range and may be relatively weaker than rebar [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production decreased month-on-month, with further reduction expected. Steel mills reduced inventory while port inventory increased. The decline in both arrivals and shipments of foreign ores provided short-term support to ore prices. Although the economic work conference boosted ore prices in the short term, prices will still face pressure after the sentiment-driven trading [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price cuts has begun. Some regions implemented production restrictions due to environmental protection. Although coke enterprises' production enthusiasm was acceptable, regional supply decreased slightly. With the decline in hot metal production, raw material demand was suppressed, and the supply-demand structure remained loose, following the weak trend of coking coal [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production decreased month-on-month, while clean coal inventory continued to increase. Some coal mines reduced production as they were approaching their annual production targets, and short-term production is expected to remain low. The number of customs clearance vehicles at ports remained high, and Mongolian coal prices continued to weaken. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory after the recent spot market decline, overall demand was limited. The fundamentals weakened, and it will maintain a weak trend [1][13][14] - **Manganese Silicon**: Port ore prices remained firm, with a slight increase in the far-month quotation of Australian ores. Regional supply increased month-on-month, demand weakened, and inventory continued to rise. The December steel procurement has started, with a leading steel mill setting the final price at 5,770 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. Short-term cost support remains, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Main production areas slightly reduced production, demand continued to weaken, and inventory increased significantly month-on-month. The December steel procurement has started, with a leading steel mill setting the final price at 5,660 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The supply-demand structure remains relatively loose, and a bearish view is taken [1][17][18] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: For rebar, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,085, 3,117, and 3,149 respectively, with changes of -30, +38, and +38. For hot-rolled coil, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,243, 3,282, and 3,248 respectively, with changes of -37, +30, and -44 [2] - **Spread Information**: The RB 10 - 01 spread was 64 with a change of 0; the HC 10 - 01 spread was 5 with a change of -7. The roll - rebar spread for 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 158, 165, and 99 respectively, with changes of -7, -8, and -82 [2] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 780, 757, and 733 respectively, with changes of -8, -12, and -12. Spot prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder also had corresponding changes [6] - **Spread Information**: The i01 - 05 spread was 23 with a change of 12; the i05 - 09 spread was 24 with a change of 0; the i09 - 01 spread was -47 with a change of -12. Other spreads and ratios also showed different changes [6] Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 - month contracts were 1,491.5, 1,657.0, and 1,737.0 respectively, with changes of -35.5, -44.0, and -45.0. Spot prices of different grades of coke in various regions also had corresponding changes [9] - **Spread Information**: The J01 - 05 spread was -165.5 with a change of 8.5; the J05 - 09 spread was -80.0 with a change of 1.0; the J09 - 01 spread was 245.5 with a change of -9.5 [9] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 - month contracts were 934.0, 1,035.0, and 1,112.0 respectively, with changes of -29.0, -35.0, and -36.5. Spot prices of different types of coking coal also had corresponding changes [13] - **Spread Information**: The JM01 - 05 spread was -101.0 with a change of 6.0; the JM05 - 09 spread was -77.0 with a change of 1.5; the JM09 - 01 spread was 178.0 with a change of -7.5 [13] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Price Information**: For manganese silicon, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 5,738, 5,758, and 5,800 respectively, with changes of -20, -10, and -10. For ferrosilicon, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 5,352, 5,382, and 5,444 respectively, with changes of -20, -12, and -12. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [17] - **Spread Information**: The SM 09 - 01 spread was 102 with a change of 10; the SF 09 - 01 spread was 92 with a change of 8. Other spreads also showed different changes [17]

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。 | | | 长线持有 | 印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑。市场押注降息持续和供需缺口 | | | 长线持有 连续 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松， | | ★★ | | 长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 宏微共振下，铜续创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 | | ★ | | 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 国内经济工作会议召开，重提反内卷并强调实施更加积极的财政政策。锌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish on rebounds [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Bearish trend continues [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation [3] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish trend continues [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continues [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical uncertainties, and cost - end fluctuations. For most products, there are concerns about oversupply and downward pressure on prices, while some products also face weakening demand expectations [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.36%, Brent rising 0.44%, and SC falling 1.11%. As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. The EIA expects US oil demand to be 2059 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2058 million barrels per day in 2026. As of December 5, US crude inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Logic**: The surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the oil price rebound is bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and the US has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. It is the off - season with supply surplus, as the consumption off - season coincides with the OPEC+ expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude oil have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased [1][9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, a 1.01% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4370 (-80) yuan/ton, 4424 (+32) yuan/ton, and 4440 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price drags down the LPG, and its trend is weak. The crude oil cost is in an oscillatory adjustment with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have recovered, the commodity volume has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience. The inventory situation has improved, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing month - on - month [1][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [16]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8); North China Ningmei was at 6730 yuan/ton (-30); the basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22); and the warehouse receipt was 11701 lots (+0) [18][19]. - **Logic**: Cost support has strengthened, the futures price has rebounded from an oversold level, but the spot price has not followed up sufficiently, and the futures price has shifted to a premium structure. Domestic operations have seasonally recovered, and the supply side remains sufficient. After late November, the peak season for shed films has gradually ended, and demand support is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, and cost support is weak [20]. - **Strategy**: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52), the East China drawn wire market price was 6354 yuan/ton (-24), the basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28), and the warehouse receipt was 15518 lots (-150) [22][23]. - **Logic**: The shutdown ratio has increased, and supply pressure has eased. However, both domestic and foreign demand support is insufficient, and there is still high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the oil price still faces a continued downward risk in the medium term. Propylene warehouse receipts have been produced for the first time, and the futures price may be weak [24]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term, or go long on the PP processing fee 01. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] and propylene [5850 - 6000] [24]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5); the Changzhou spot price was 4510 yuan/ton (-); the 01 basis was -76 yuan/ton (-5), and the warehouse receipt was 127934 lots (+2856) [25][26]. - **Logic**: Operations have remained at a high level, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is insufficient upward momentum. However, due to low - valuation support and continuous compression of the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit, the downward space for the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting and contract - changing [27]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of V [4350 - 4500] [27]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4752 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4704 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4700 yuan/ton [28]. - **Logic**: The processing fee is generally low, and the PTA device maintenance intensity is high, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. The cost - end support has weakened. In the short term, supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [29]. - **Strategy**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has bottom support. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels or conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of TA [4600 - 4660] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol device operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads [32]. - **Logic**: Both domestic and overseas devices have generally reduced their loads, and demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. Supply and demand have improved in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of ethylene glycol is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It fluctuates with the cost in the short term and operates in a low - level oscillation [32]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3620 - 3700] [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: MA01 was at 2077 yuan/ton, MA05 at 2209 yuan/ton, and MA09 at 2179 yuan/ton [34]. - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. Port inventory has been continuously reduced from a high level, but the reduction speed has slowed down. The demand side has changed little, and the cost - end support has weakened. The fundamentals of methanol remain weak [35]. - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2035 - 2085] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 at 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 at 1752 yuan/ton [38]. - **Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily urea output is as high as 192,500 tons. It is expected that the supply - side pressure will ease in mid - December as some gas - head enterprises stop production for maintenance. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level in the same period. Since July, urea exports have maintained a high growth rate. In the context of the "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The domestic urea fundamentals are still loose [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the range of UR [1620 - 1660] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 9, the NG main contract closed at 4.574 US dollars per million British thermal units, a 6.88% decline. The US Henry Hub spot was at 5.290 (-0.270) US dollars per million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot was at 9.460 (-0.173) US dollars per million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was at 4054 (-49) yuan/ton [43][44]. - **Logic**: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season. The extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand, and the gas price has strengthened. However, the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the upward pressure has increased [45]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.425 - 4.912] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 10, the BU main contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decline. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (+0) yuan/ton, 3150 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3010 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. - **Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. Recently, affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation, the oil price has dropped significantly. The South American geopolitical situation has also eased recently, and the asphalt price still has room for compression [50]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2900 - 3000] [51]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16); the Hubei market price was at 1130 yuan/ton (0); the basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16); and the SA - FG01 spread was 162 yuan/ton (+5) [53][54]. - **Logic**: The daily melting volume has declined again, and there are still plans to cold - repair multiple production lines in December. The current daily melting volume has dropped to 155,000 tons, driving the slow reduction of high - level factory inventory. In October, the real - estate price and volume accelerated their decline, and deep - processing orders remained at a low level in the same period. Weak demand restricts the rebound space [55]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair in the short term, and the futures price may continue to be strong. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25); the Shahe heavy - quality soda ash market price was at 1200 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was -39 yuan/ton (+5), and the warehouse receipt was 1354 lots (+0) [57][58]. - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase at a high level, and industrial hedging has exerted pressure. The fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, and factory inventory has declined from a high level. Some devices have been overhauled or reduced their loads, and production has slightly declined. The cold - repair of float glass has increased, and demand has declined. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass has dropped to 248,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the high - production - capacity cycle, and the supply will remain in a loose pattern [59]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the 01 soda - glass spread. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Long - term Hold**: Gold, Silver, Copper [1] - **Pressured**: Zinc, Lead, Tin [1] - **Rebound Pressured**: Aluminum [1] - **Weak**: Nickel, Industrial Silicon [1] - **Relatively Strong**: Polysilicon [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Lithium Carbonate [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision, geopolitical factors, and policy changes have significant impacts on the prices of various metals. For example, the Fed's December interest rate cut and policy stance shift affect gold and silver prices; Indonesia's gold tax increase supports gold prices in the medium - to - long - term. - The supply - demand relationship of different metals varies. Copper is affected by tight copper concentrate supply and green demand; zinc shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand; aluminum has an over - supply situation in alumina and a slowdown in aluminum ingot destocking. - Different investment strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market conditions, such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper, and short - selling on rebounds for zinc [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a key shift in policy stance. Indonesia increased the gold tax rate. There was a short - term "dovish" trading in the market after the Fed's decision, and the Fed announced to start buying short - term Treasury bonds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed's policy entered a "data - dependent" waiting mode, with internal differences. Indonesia's gold tax policy reduces the supply of low - value - added gold and provides structural support for gold prices. Long - term gold benefits from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has a delivery risk event [2][3]. - **Trading Logic**: Long - term gold has investment value, and for silver, long - term positions can be held while being cautious in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the 935 support for domestic gold. Long - term value - based positions should be held. Be vigilant about the high volatility risk of silver in the short - term [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the copper market was in a high - level shock. The prices of various copper products showed different changes, and there were also changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load. High copper prices suppress demand, and the consumption is in the off - season. COMEX copper continues to draw global copper inventories [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, hold copper long positions and set trailing stops when the price rises. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 【90000, 95000】 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated in a narrow range at a high level. The prices of zinc products showed a downward trend, and there were changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate continued to decline, and the supply was expected to shrink. Consumption entered the off - season, and the overseas LME zinc inventory increased while the domestic social inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, zinc oscillates at a high level with limited upside space. Sellers can set up short positions at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 【22800, 23300】 for Shanghai zinc and 【3000, 3100】 US dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price rebounded under pressure, and the alumina market was weak [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the alumina surplus continues. The electrolytic aluminum maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic aluminum ingot destocking slows down. The consumption off - season effect is obvious [10][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is 【21500 - 22300】 [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounded under pressure, and the stainless - steel market was also under pressure [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The impact of overseas production cuts in Indonesia gradually weakened. The terminal consumption of stainless steel entered the off - season, and the stainless - steel social inventory increased slightly [14][16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is 【115000 - 118000】 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with increased positions and volume, rising more than 2% [19]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. The terminal demand remains strong, and the price has no significant downside space. It will correct recently and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilizing [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 【94800 - 97500】 [21]