1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of caustic soda is strong, the price of liquid chlorine is weak, and the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot. It is expected that the futures price of caustic soda will strengthen on a month - on - month basis [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Chlor - alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. It is expected to reach about 86.1% this week, with a weekly output of about 834,900 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the alumina industry, prices have been rising, and enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle. The short - fiber viscose industry's start - up rate remains stable, but the overall supply has declined. The printing and dyeing industry's comprehensive start - up rate is flat, and the export volume of liquid caustic soda in April was 335,800 tons, and that of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above decreased by 3.59% month - on - month and 2.25% year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.74% month - on - month [7]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, the price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali decreased to 428 yuan/ton [7]. - **Valuation**: The SH7 - 9 spread is maintained in the range of - 51 - 56, and the futures SH09 price is relatively strong. The futures price of caustic soda ignores the strong spot reality and focuses on the expected weakening of future demand. It is not recommended to carry out sell - hedging operations under the current basis [7]. 3.2 Chlor - alkali Prices - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali, including the minimum ex - factory converted - to - 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda, the price of liquid chlorine, etc. [11] - **Futures Prices**: It shows the historical data of the main contract price of caustic soda, the spread between SH09 and SH01 contracts, and the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong [17]. - **Other Prices**: It also includes the prices of flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, raw salt, and coal [14][20][21] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production and Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of caustic soda production, liquid caustic soda inventory, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises [26]. - **Maintenance Situation**: It lists the maintenance and planned maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali enterprises in different regions [28]. 3.4 Chlor - alkali Demand - **Alumina**: It shows the historical data of Shandong alumina price, profit, and China's alumina production [32]. - **Viscose Short - fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: It presents the historical data of viscose short - fiber weekly output, factory inventory, price, and the start - up rate of East China's printing and dyeing industry [35]. - **Paper Pulp and Paper - making**: It shows the historical data of paper product output and the number of days of available inventory of upstream factory paper products [38]. - **Export**: It shows the historical data of China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda [41]. - **Epoxy Propane**: It presents the historical data of Shandong epoxy propane price, profit, output, and start - up rate [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From May 19th to May 23rd, there were minor supply disruptions, and lithium carbonate prices rose slightly before falling back. As of May 23rd, the closing price of the main contract was 60,960 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 63,050 yuan/ton. Besides the lower cost, there were no more pessimistic changes in the fundamentals. The further decline in the price of spodumene ore has lowered the cost support for lithium prices. The spot price has hit a new low since the futures were listed, and market sentiment remains pessimistic, but it is expected to stop falling as the raw material prices stabilize. Domestic social inventory has decreased slightly, and weekly production has declined. The continuous decline in prices increases the possibility of upstream enterprises reducing or suspending production, which needs continuous attention in the near future [2][10]. - The previous reciprocal tariffs have further restricted the future demand for lithium carbonate products. When facing the weakening peak - season effect of new - energy vehicles, the slowdown in the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate orders, and the decline in the production of ternary materials in China, the impact of reciprocal tariffs on lithium carbonate products is not obvious. The demand for lithium carbonate from the product end is more reflected in the growth of energy - storage demand and the demand brought about by breakthroughs in all - solid - state technology. Short - term factors affecting lithium carbonate prices still focus on the supply - and - demand changes in its own fundamentals. The possibility of further decline at the current price level is narrowing, and it should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [2][10]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review - Supply had sporadic disruptions, and lithium carbonate prices rose slightly before falling back. From May 19th to May 23rd, the upstream had minor disturbances with a small volume involved. As of May 23rd, the main contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 63,050 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and weekly production declined [2][8][10]. II. Hot - Spot Interpretation - **April Import and Export Data (Spodumene, Lithium Iron Phosphate)**: In April, domestic spodumene imports totaled 623,000 physical tons, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, equivalent to 54,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe were the main import sources. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month; from Zimbabwe was 106,000 tons, an 82% increase; from Nigeria was 89,000 tons, a 4% increase; and from South Africa was 40,400 tons, a significant 22% decrease. In April, the amount of spodumene concentrate was 520,000 tons, accounting for 83% of the total ore, mostly from Australia, Zimbabwe, etc. In April 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate export volume was 1,151.7 tons, a 16% decrease from March and a 1724% increase compared to the previous year. In terms of price, the average export price of lithium iron phosphate in March 2025 was 6,206.9 US dollars/ton, a 5.4% increase from the average price in March. The top - exporting province of lithium iron phosphate in April 2025 was Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region with 968.5 tons, all exported to Vietnam; Hubei Province ranked second with 59.454 tons, and Anhui Province ranked third with 30 tons. The top - importing country of Chinese lithium iron phosphate in April 2025 was Vietnam, accounting for 84% of the export volume; South Korea ranked second with 7%, and Chinese Taipei ranked third with 5.5%. In April, China's lithium iron phosphate import volume was 8.6 tons, a 58% decrease from the previous month, mainly imported from Indonesia at an average import price of 5,345.6 US dollars/ton [17][18]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the price of ternary materials continued to decline. In terms of raw material costs, the prices of nickel sulfate and manganese sulfate fluctuated little, the price of cobalt sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of lithium salt continued to decline significantly. In terms of demand, the large - power market has recovered to some extent, with some vehicle models having good sales performance, and some models stocking up in advance due to upcoming launches, which provided some support for the demand for ternary materials, but the overall quantity was limited. The consumer and small - power markets have received more orders recently, especially the overseas market, but the overall increase was not obvious due to the small market volume. On the supply side, the current market supply mainly depends on previously signed long - term contracts. Some enterprises have raised relevant discount coefficients and adopted a settlement method of negotiating discounts for raw materials such as nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate separately. Recently, the market trading sentiment has been weak, mainly for just - in - time inventory. However, the end - of - month inventory peak is coming next week, and it is expected that market activity will increase recently. In terms of price trends, it is expected that the price of nickel sulfate will remain firm, but there is still room for the price of lithium salt to decline. Affected by raw - material price fluctuations, the price of ternary materials may decline further [20]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the price of lithium ore continued to decline compared to last week. On the supply side, although overseas mines have a certain willingness to support prices, due to their shipping pressure, the quotes have been lowered. On the demand side, since the current lithium - salt price is at a low level, the buyers' psychological price is constantly decreasing, and they are not willing to accept lithium - ore prices above 650 US dollars CIF. When the current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are falling, the demand continues to push down the price for negotiation, and the trading willingness is average. According to the latest lithium - ore import customs data, in April, domestic spodumene imports exceeded 600,000 tons, a significant increase from the previous month, equivalent to more than 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. Coupled with the high port inventory in recent months, traders and mines face certain shipping pressure, and the buyers' bargaining power has increased. When the lithium carbonate price remains low, the lithium - ore price is expected to weaken [22]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the power - cell market continued to operate in a stable and adjusted manner. In terms of price, the quoted price range of mainstream lithium - iron - phosphate power cells fluctuated narrowly, and market transactions were mostly concentrated in the long - term contracts of leading cell manufacturers. The price competition among terminal vehicle enterprises continued in mid - May, especially for pure - electric platforms of Class A and below, with a deep exploration around the vehicle selling price, which put forward higher requirements for the upstream BOM cost. In this context, power - cell manufacturers are gradually optimizing their product strategies. While maintaining the stable supply of basic large - capacity lithium - iron products, they are accelerating the launch of differentiated solutions for niche markets, such as low - cost and high - integration modules and a new generation of lithium - iron cells compatible with the CTP structure. Some ternary - cell manufacturers are also improving product cost - effectiveness through high - voltage iron doping and fast - charging system technology and promoting the matching of customized cells represented by the 9 - series in the core - customer testing stage [25]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the downward trend of lithium iron phosphate prices has slowed down, with an overall decrease of about 365 yuan/ton, mainly because the lithium carbonate price has continued to decline this week, with a total decrease of about 1,450 yuan/ton. In the market, material manufacturers have been more active in production this week, and the production of leading material manufacturers has begun to recover, but the production of some second - tier material manufacturers has declined, mainly due to the adjustment of the downstream cell supply - chain structure and a slight decline in downstream power orders. On the demand side, energy - storage demand continues to improve. On the one hand, the US has lowered tariffs on China, and downstream cell manufacturers are eager to rush for exports, resulting in a slight increase in orders. In terms of price settlement, the average price of lithium iron phosphate showed a slight upward trend in April as a whole. Some lithium - iron - phosphate manufacturers hoped to increase the processing fee in the second quarter, but there was no substantial result after negotiations with downstream cell manufacturers. However, at present, the price of lithium - iron raw materials has started to decline, so the price of lithium iron in May is also expected to decline to some extent. In addition, some cell manufacturers will restart bidding in June, and the probability of a price increase before then is low. Considering these two points, SMM expects that the second - quarter processing fee will be difficult to increase [27]. III. In - depth Analysis of Industrial - Chain Data - **Lithium - Ore Price**: The report provides the price trends of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) and lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2%) through charts, including data such as price changes, increases and decreases, and average prices [32]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Price**: The report shows the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate through charts, including data such as price changes, increases and decreases, and average prices [35]. - **Processing Cost and Cash Production Cost**: The report presents the processing costs of lithium carbonate from lithium - mica concentrate and spodumene concentrate and the cash production costs of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and purchased lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) through charts [38]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Profit**: The report shows the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and purchased lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical arbitrage profit of lithium carbonate, including theoretical delivery profit, import profit, export profit of lithium hydroxide, and theoretical delivery profit of lithium - carbonate production from lithium - mica ore and spodumene ore through charts [41]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Weekly Operation and Production**: The report provides the weekly operation rates of lithium - carbonate production from spodumene, lithium - mica, and salt lakes, as well as the weekly production of lithium carbonate from different smelting methods and the total weekly production of lithium carbonate in China through charts [44]. - **Cell Shipment and Battery Inventory**: The report shows the monthly shipment volume of power cells (including lithium - iron - phosphate, ternary, and total) and the inventory of lithium batteries (including energy - storage batteries and power batteries) through charts [47]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The report presents the production volume of new - energy vehicles (including pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and total) and the sales volume and proportion of new - energy vehicles through charts [50]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Inventory**: The report shows the monthly and weekly inventory of lithium carbonate (including total, downstream, smelter, and other inventories) through charts [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider taking phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling small - and medium - cap indices on rallies due to high congestion and market instability [13]. - For Treasury bond futures, focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steep curve trend [14]. - For the European container shipping route, the previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may be volatile, and long - term factors such as trans - route rebalancing and demand need to be monitored [16]. - For cotton, the easing of Sino - US tariff friction may stimulate short - term demand, but there are still pressures. The overall cotton market is technically pressured, and the price rebounds at a low level but is still below the 60 - day moving average [16][17]. - For sugar, the supply is currently abundant, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The price shows a volatile trend, and international supply surplus may suppress long - term prices [18][20]. - For eggs, the consumption may improve before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the price is expected to face pressure in June. It is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions [21][22]. - For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended [22]. - For red dates, short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [24]. - For live pigs, the spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts. The supply side faces double negative factors, and the demand side has a seasonal weakening expectation [25]. - For crude oil, the long - term price is in a downward trend, and it is expected to remain weak. Short - term sanctions on Iran may cause a price rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient [25]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profit, but weak shipping demand is a continuous influencing factor [27]. - For caustic soda, the market's future demand expectation is pessimistic, but the spot is currently strong. If alumina enterprises resume production, the demand may increase. It is advisable to gradually enter long positions [28]. - For soda ash and glass, soda ash is in the maintenance period, with supply expected to increase slightly, and the price is still weak. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly in the short term [29]. - For asphalt, the futures price is expected to follow the decline of crude oil price and approach 3400 yuan, and the upper pressure is the same as that of crude oil [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a volatile approach is recommended in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be awaited in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the change in the basis [32]. - For pulp, the short - term supply - demand has no obvious contradiction, and the price may rebound due to tariff and replenishment demand. The future arrival volume is expected to change seasonally [33]. - For logs, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream construction and port inventory. Short - term call options can be sold for hedging, and long - term out - of - the - money call options can be bought at low prices [34]. - For urea, with the start of export inspection and the arrival of the agricultural demand season, the demand is expected to improve. If the futures price further drops, long positions can be considered [35]. - For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene has declined, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [36]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Alumina supply is expected to balance in June, and long positions can be considered when the futures price is deeply discounted to the spot price [37]. - For lithium carbonate, the future demand of the finished product is restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possibility of upstream production reduction [38]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be bearish before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling can be considered for far - month contracts [39][40]. - For steel and iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the long - term trend is weak due to strong supply and weak demand [41]. - For coking coal and coke, the fundamentals have not changed substantially, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [43]. - For ferroalloys, for ferrosilicon, short positions can take profit at low prices, and for silicomanganese, short positions can be held for observation [45]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The National Internet Information Office and financial regulatory authorities have dealt with accounts and websites spreading false capital market information, conducting illegal stock recommendations, and hyping virtual currency trading [10]. - The State Council has reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Green and Low - Carbon Development of the Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2027), studied measures to improve the horizontal ecological protection compensation mechanism, and discussed the draft amendment to the Food Safety Law [10]. - US President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1st and a 25% tariff on non - US - made products of mobile phone manufacturers [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that Trump's tariff threat aims to prompt the EU to act faster, and the US is expected to reach agreements with other countries within 90 days [11]. - Most banks' large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates are declining. A private bank may lower the interest rates of some deposit products on May 27th [11]. - Multiple provinces have strengthened the management of special bond funds, and the Ministry of Finance's regulatory bureau has made it a key management point [11]. - If Trump imposes a 50% tariff on the EU, Germany may lose about 200 billion euros by the end of his second term in 2028 [11]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's report shows that the Chinese export container shipping market is improving, and the national economy is growing steadily. In April, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year [12]. - China and the Netherlands will communicate on semiconductor export control issues to maintain the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [12]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsby believes that although the threshold for short - term interest rate cuts is "slightly high", rate cuts are possible in the next 10 - 16 months, and high tariffs are "terrible for the supply chain" [12]. Futures Markets Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and short - sell small - and medium - cap indices on rallies. The high congestion of small - cap indices and market instability have led to a decline. The previous policies have shown weak support for the domestic economic cycle, and the market may rest in the short term [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steep curve trend. The bond market sentiment was affected by the MLF injection and bond issuance. The current contradiction in the bond market may be bond issuance, and the supply pressure affects the capital flow [14][15]. European Container Shipping Route - The previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may be volatile due to previous tariff sentiment and time lag. In the long term, factors such as trans - route rebalancing and demand need to be monitored [16]. Cotton - The easing of Sino - US tariff friction may stimulate short - term demand, but there are still pressures. The overall cotton market is technically pressured, and the price rebounds at a low level but is still below the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand and inventory digestion [16][17][18]. Sugar - The supply is currently abundant, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The price shows a volatile trend. International supply surplus may suppress long - term prices, and domestic supply is relatively loose but inventory is low. Attention should be paid to import supply [18][20][21]. Eggs - The consumption may improve before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the price is expected to face pressure in June due to large supply, quality problems, and lack of festival - driven consumption. It is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions [21][22]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The current situation of fruit setting in different regions is inconsistent, and the inventory is at a low level in the past six years. The price and sales volume are expected to be stable before the Dragon Boat Festival [22][24]. Red Dates - Short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market trading atmosphere has weakened after the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and the supply is sufficient [24]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts. The supply side faces double negative factors of increased theoretical supply pressure and high inventory, and the demand side has a seasonal weakening expectation [25]. Crude Oil - The long - term price is in a downward trend, and it is expected to remain weak. OPEC + plans to increase production, and global economic weakness may affect demand. Short - term sanctions on Iran may cause a price rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient [25]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profit, but weak shipping demand is a continuous influencing factor. The supply from Iran is a risk factor [27]. Caustic Soda - The market's future demand expectation is pessimistic, but the spot is currently strong. If alumina enterprises resume production, the demand may increase. It is advisable to gradually enter long positions. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the futures price is currently at a discount [28]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is in the maintenance period, with supply expected to increase slightly, and the price is still weak. The downstream demand is stable. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly in the short term. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [29][30]. Asphalt - The futures price is expected to follow the decline of crude oil price and approach 3400 yuan, and the upper pressure is the same as that of crude oil. The price in Shandong increased slightly over the weekend, and the production of refineries is lower than expected [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - A volatile approach is recommended in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be awaited in the medium term. The price decline is affected by factors such as crude oil regression, restart of maintenance devices, and potential production cuts in downstream staple fibers. Attention should be paid to the change in the basis [32]. Pulp - The short - term supply - demand has no obvious contradiction, and the price may rebound due to tariff and replenishment demand. The future arrival volume is expected to change seasonally. The downstream construction has changed slightly, and cultural paper has issued price - increase notices [33]. Logs - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream construction and port inventory. Short - term call options can be sold for hedging, and long - term out - of - the - money call options can be bought at low prices. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term [34]. Urea - With the start of export inspection and the arrival of the agricultural demand season, the demand is expected to improve. The price of urea in the spot market is slightly declining, and the futures price is also falling. If the futures price further drops, long positions can be considered [35][36]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of butadiene has declined, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [36]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum price is supported by low warehouse receipts and inventory, but it is expected to fluctuate due to trade negotiations and off - season expectations. Alumina supply is expected to balance in June, and long positions can be considered when the futures price is deeply discounted to the spot price [37]. Lithium Carbonate - The future demand of the finished product is restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The price decline may increase the possibility of upstream production reduction. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand change of the product itself [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling can be considered for far - month contracts. The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is affected by factors such as photovoltaic installation data and component production [39][40]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the long - term trend is weak due to strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the supply side has a certain reduction in iron - making molten iron production [41][42]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals have not changed substantially, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The steel - making blast furnace restart is basically in place, and the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the supply - demand of coke is basically balanced [43][44]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, short positions can take profit at low prices, and for silicomanganese, short positions can be held for observation. The current supply - demand of both has no obvious contradiction, and the cost of ferrosilicon is affected by electricity prices [45].

2025-05-26 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 66.38 | -1.39 | 67.50 | 69.29 | 部分大厂家开启检修，但有厂家计划推迟，结合前期检修近期有恢复 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 3 6 | -0.99 | 36 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 23 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 备注: | | --- | | 1. 趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 | | 2 学唐诗老下文武扫描一姓记本无声主要胡少昭公右唱八司八 | | | 基于量化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | 白糖 | 直— | 玻璃 | | 锰硅 | 글= | 焦炭 | | 鸡蛋 | PTA | 护金 | | РУС | 沪铝 | 直海 | | 沪锡 | 玉米淀粉 | 菜粕 | | 沥青 | 玉米 | 菜油 | | 热轧卷板 | 护银 | 焦煤 | | | 橡胶 | | | | 螺 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market shows a pattern where large - cap indices are weak and small - cap indices are strong. The short - term market may rest, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines, consider partial profit - taking or defensive operations [9]. - In the bond market, there is a game between long and short factors, and the market is waiting for a clear direction. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction [11]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment strategies are presented, such as short - term weakness in some agricultural products and energy products, and potential opportunities in some industrial metals [12][15][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - China and ASEAN have completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, including 9 new chapters [6]. - The US attempts to globally ban Chinese advanced computing chips, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has responded [6]. - Seven banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, with a focus on medium - and long - term deposits [6]. - Shanghai has issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures for consumer goods replacement, housing consumption, and bond product supply [6]. - NVIDIA's CEO predicts that the Chinese AI market will reach $50 billion in 2026, and the US export control on AI chips to China has failed [7]. - A new tax bill may extend Trump's tax - cut policy and cut government spending, which may lead to an increase in federal debt [7]. - Two Fed officials suggest patience in policy adjustment, waiting for more data [7]. - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a higher yield and a lower bid - to - cover ratio [8]. - The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure due to concerns about the tax bill [8]. Stock Index Futures - In April, domestic demand was weak, industrial production was stronger than expected, and major indicators declined. The market style shifted back to weak large - cap and strong small - cap indices. The short - term market may rest, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines and consider defensive operations [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - During the tax period, the capital market was loose, and bond prices fluctuated narrowly. The macro data in April showed mixed performance, and there is a game between long and short factors in the bond market. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction [10][11]. Container Shipping to Europe - In the first half of June, there is more capacity supply, and the price increase may not be fully realized. The price increase is more likely to be implemented in the second half of June. The supply in June - July is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the long - term. The situation of the US shipping market will also affect the European shipping market [12]. Cotton - The international cotton market is affected by factors such as crude oil prices and planting progress. The domestic cotton market is relatively strong due to increased downstream demand. However, there are still pressures such as high inventory and uncertain trade relations. The short - term price may rebound but is still under pressure [13][14][15]. Sugar - The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the next season, which will suppress prices. The domestic sugar market has sufficient short - term supply but low inventory, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to import supply [15][16][17]. Oils and Fats, and Oilseeds - Palm oil is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and its short - term trend is weak. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel policy changes. Domestic soybean meal may be under pressure as soybean arrivals increase, but short - term support comes from low inventory [18][19]. Eggs - Egg prices have been falling before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply pressure is large in the medium - term. Consumption may enter a off - season after the festival. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [20][21]. Apples - The market is in a state of shock due to inconsistent views on apple fruiting. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, apple sales and prices are expected to be stable. It is recommended to use a light - position positive spread strategy [21]. Red Dates - The market trading is light, and the futures price is in a weak shock. The Xinjiang production area is in good condition, but the demand may decline after the festival. It is recommended to short on price increases [22]. Hogs - The supply pressure of live hogs is increasing, and demand may decline with the hot weather. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices are affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. The long - term trend is downward, and short - term fluctuations are strong but with limited upward space [23][24]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices. The current pressure area is around $65 - 68 per barrel, and the futures price is expected to decline [24][25]. Plastics - The short - term decline momentum of plastics weakens, and downstream export orders increase. It is expected to have a small - scale rebound, and a long position in the 9 - 1 spread can be considered [24]. Methanol - Methanol may have a short - term rebound due to less - than - expected port inventory accumulation, but the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [24]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is strong, while the futures price is pessimistic. Before the spot price falls, the futures price decline space is limited [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash production is in maintenance, and the short - term supply pressure eases, but the long - term supply is still abundant. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price may fluctuate or decline slightly [25]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are affected by crude oil prices. The current pressure area of crude oil is $65 - 68 per barrel, and asphalt futures prices are expected to decline [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products follow crude oil prices. With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, more cost - side benefits are needed for price increases. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [25]. Pulp - The short - term supply and demand of pulp have no major contradictions, and the market is in a rigid demand and high - inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to raw material and finished - product inventory rhythms [25][26]. Logs - The spot market of logs is stable, and the supply and demand are balanced. Attention should be paid to capital and macro - sentiment impacts. Short - term spot wheeling can sell covered calls, and long - term can buy out - of - the - money calls [26]. Urea - The urea spot market is weak and stable, and the futures market is affected by export rumors. It is recommended to maintain a strong - shock thinking [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum demand is strong in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips. Alumina is affected by Guinea's policy, and the short - term price is strong, but the supply may return to surplus. It is recommended to be cautious when going long [26]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a shock pattern. The short - term price decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has an over - supply problem, and a bearish view is maintained before effective supply reduction. Polysilicon demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [27][28]. Steel and Iron Ore - The steel market has weak demand and strong supply. The short - term trend is expected to be in shock, and the long - term trend is weak [29][30][32]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel. The short - term trend is affected by policies, and the fundamentals have not changed substantially. It is not recommended to go long [32]. Ferroalloys - The upper - limit hedging pressure of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is large, and the short - term trend is downward. It is recommended to short on price increases [33].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 21 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 客服电话： | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 公司网址： | | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | 垫丁重化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 農汤 | 偏多 | | 鸡蛋 | 直海 | 护金 | | 沥青 | 沪银 | 豆粕 | | РУС | — | 菜粕 | | 锰硅 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | 沪锌 | 菜油 | 들 - | | 甲醇 | 沪铝 | 焦炭 | | 护铜 | 玉米 | 白糖 | | | 玉米淀粉 | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 沪锡 | | | | PTA | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | ...

姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月19日 --------中美贸易关税缓和 铝土矿因素扰动氧化铝、烧碱期货 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.6%，较上周环比-1.3%。西北、西南新增重启或降负，带动负荷不同程度下滑，华北检修及重启并存，负荷提升。其 | | | | 中山东产能利用率-1.8%至86.8%。本周华中、华东均有装置减产及检修，西北、华北、西南装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率降至82.9%左右，周产量80.53 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the short - term price has limited upside and downside space. The supply is expected to decline due to increased maintenance, but the cost support is weakening. The demand is stable to weak, and there is a risk of oversupply after the rush - installation period. For the glass market, the apparent demand has decreased significantly, the price is expected to decline, and the fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, so the market will maintain a weak operation [4][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market 3.1.1 Price - **Futures price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 27, 29, and 19 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 [6] - **Spot price**: The prices of heavy alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of heavy alkali in Qinghai increased by 20. The price of light alkali in Central China remained unchanged [6] 3.1.2 Supply - **Capacity utilization**: The overall capacity utilization decreased from 87.74% to 80.27%. The capacity utilization of the combined - soda process decreased from 85.12% to 74.23%, and that of the ammonia - soda process decreased from 83.52% to 82.27% [7] - **Output**: The weekly output decreased from 74.07 million tons to 67.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.51%. The output of heavy alkali decreased from 40.79 million tons to 36.99 million tons, a decrease of 9.32%, and the output of light alkali decreased from 33.28 million tons to 30.78 million tons, a decrease of 7.51% [7] 3.1.3 Demand - **For glass**: The daily output of float glass increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass remained at 9.878 million tons [7] - **Apparent demand for light alkali**: It decreased from 31.88 million tons to 30.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.32% [7] 3.1.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: It increased from 170.13 million tons to 171.2 million tons, an increase of 0.63%. The inventory of heavy alkali increased from 87.22 million tons to 88.33 million tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the inventory of light alkali decreased slightly from 82.91 million tons to 82.87 million tons, a decrease of 0.05% [7] - **Social inventory**: It decreased from 37.59 million tons to 36.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% [7] 3.1.5 Profit - **Combined - soda process profit**: It increased from 275 yuan/ton to 287.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.55% - **Ammonia - soda process profit**: It increased from 50.4 yuan/ton to 65.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.76% [7] 3.2 Glass Market 3.2.1 Price - **Futures price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 28, 11, and 1 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 12 [53] - **Spot price**: The prices of glass in most regions decreased. The price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe decreased by 44, and the prices in North China, Central China, and East China decreased by 20, 10, and 20 respectively [53] 3.2.2 Supply - **Capacity utilization**: It remained at 75%, and the daily output increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons. The weekly output remained stable at around 109.17 million tons [54] 3.2.3 Demand - **Apparent demand**: It increased from 96.34 million tons to 106.56 million tons, an increase of 11%. However, the orders of downstream processing plants were differentiated [54] 3.2.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: It increased from 6756 million heavy - cases to 6808.2 million heavy - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of Shahe traders decreased from 376 million heavy - cases to 352 million heavy - cases, a decrease of 6% [54] 3.2.5 Profit - **Profit of different production processes**: The profit of natural - gas production decreased from - 147.85 yuan/ton to - 149.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1%. The profit of coal - gas production decreased from 147.23 yuan/ton to 104.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29%. The profit of petroleum - coke production decreased from - 44.6 yuan/ton to - 70.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57% [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea spot price will move in the direction of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the urea futures price is expected to fluctuate around the spot price. The consensus on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the urea industry chain has laid a solid foundation for the stability of domestic urea spot prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Plots show the price trends of urea in regions like Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [8][9]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Illustrates the FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factory for small - particle urea and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory from 2021 - 2025 [11][12]. - **Unit Nitrogen Element Price and Spread**: Displays the price of nitrogen in synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spread between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [14][15]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Presents the price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - **Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spread**: Shows the price of the urea 09 - contract futures, the basis of the 09 - contract, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 - 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - **Domestic Urea Output**: Shows the weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025. From May 8 - 14 to May 29 - June 4, 2025, the weekly average daily output increased from 19.92 to 20.43 million tons [25][26]. - **Coal Price and Urea Profit**: Displays the price trends of anthracite and bituminous coal, as well as the profits of Shanxi fixed - bed and Henan new - process urea production from 2021 - 2025 [28][29]. - **Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Illustrates the enterprise inventory, daily average apparent consumption from the enterprise perspective, order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption of urea from 2021 - 2025. As of a certain period, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 81.72 million tons, a decrease of 24.84 million tons (- 23.31%) [31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Shows the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import, export, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025. The domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate rebounded slightly to 40.26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [36][37]. - **Compound Fertilizer Upstream**: Displays the weekly output, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, as well as the operating rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of domestic potassium fertilizer from 2021 - 2025 [38][39][42]. - **Melamine**: Presents the weekly output, price, melamine/urea price ratio, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Urea Export**: Shows the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 - 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory - **Enterprise and Port Inventory**: Illustrates the enterprise inventory, port inventory, total enterprise + port inventory, and the number of urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [49][50].