1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, consider taking phased profit - taking operations or defensive strategies [8]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. - For container shipping on the European route, the uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [11]. - For cotton, the domestic cotton market is likely to rebound under pressure at a low level [12][13]. - For sugar, the sugar price shows an oscillating trend due to sufficient supply and uncertain supply - demand gap [14][15]. - For palm oil and soybean meal, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - For eggs, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, it is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. - For crude oil, pay attention to the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [23]. - For fuel oil, the price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. - For plastics, beware of callback risks and turn short when the spot fails to follow up [25]. - For rubber, be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies, and the overall trend is range - bound [26]. - For methanol, beware of callback risks [27]. - For caustic soda, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. - For soda ash, the short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - For glass, the price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly [30][31]. - For asphalt, it is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. - For pulp, the short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. - For logs, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. - For urea, the futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. - For aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - For alumina, consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. - For lithium carbonate, an oscillating approach is recommended [34]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - For polysilicon, the near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. - For steel and ore, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. - For coking coal and coke, there is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. - For ferroalloys, a medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Multiple public - fund industry insiders stated that the recent analysis of market rebalancing due to public - fund assessment benchmarks is inaccurate and lacks basis, and there is no large - scale rebalancing of public - fund products [7]. - Trump will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, expecting the US federal debt burden to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035 and the federal deficit to reach 9% of GDP [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs opposed the US's malicious blockade and suppression of Chinese chips [7]. - Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiation in three years, with different views on the negotiation results [7]. - The US and the EU launched trade negotiations to avoid the worst impact of Trump's tariff policies [7]. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May dropped to 50.8, with the 1 - year inflation expectation at 7.3% and the 5 - year inflation expectation at 4.6% [7]. - In March, overseas creditors' total holdings of US Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion to $9.05 trillion, with Japan increasing its holdings and China decreasing its holdings [7]. - The Trump administration plans to introduce a remittance tax for non - citizens [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Affected by US chip information, small - and medium - cap indexes are weak. The weighting index may reach short - term consistency in the adjustment of public - fund allocation logic and then decline. The current congestion of the CSI 1000 index is high, and the market may consolidate in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the money market fluctuated. The short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Route - The market has entered a wait - and - see stage for price increases. The uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [10][11]. 3.5 Cotton - Last week, ICE US cotton prices continued to decline, and the domestic cotton market was under pressure. The cotton market is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic cotton price may rebound under pressure [12][13]. 3.6 Sugar - ICE raw sugar continued to decline last Friday, and domestic sugar prices followed. The expected increase in supply restricts sugar prices, and the domestic sugar price shows an oscillating trend [14][15]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - Palm oil: Affected by the delay in US biofuel policy formulation, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - Soybean meal: With the acceleration of soybean customs clearance, the domestic oil - mill operating rate has recovered, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price was weak on Friday, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. 3.9 Apples - The current apple market in the western and eastern production areas is in the young - fruit stage, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The narrowing of the standard - fat price spread has led to an increase in the slaughter of large - weight pigs, suppressing the price of standard pigs. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The market's expectation of demand has improved, and international oil prices have risen. The short - term focus is on the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [22][23]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. 3.14 Plastics - Short - term market sentiment has improved, but beware of callback risks [25]. 3.15 Rubber - The domestic raw - material supply is progressing moderately, and the market is oscillating. Be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies [26]. 3.16 Methanol - After the emotional rebound, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly. Beware of callback risks [27]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly under the influence of the fundamentals and the macro - environment [28]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - Glass: The price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly, and pay attention to the cold - repair rhythm of glass factories [30][31]. 3.19 Asphalt - It is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. 3.20 Polyester Industry Chain - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. 3.21 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. 3.22 Pulp - The short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. 3.23 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. 3.24 Urea - The futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. 3.25 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - Alumina: Consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. 3.26 Lithium Carbonate - An oscillating approach is recommended [34]. 3.27 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. 3.28 Steel and Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. 3.29 Coking Coal and Coke - There is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. 3.30 Ferroalloys - A medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41].

2025-05-19 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 67.77 | -6.30 | 66.00 | 64.00 | | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 36.99 | -3.80 | 36.02 | 34.93 | 检修计划延续，下旬有部分大厂加入检修；前期部分检修计划临近结 束，有部分计划执行或不及预期，供应低位水平待观察；连云港碱厂 新产能本月有望出试制品。 | | | | 轻质产量（万吨） | | 30.78 | -2.50 | 29.98 | 29.07 | | | | 进出口 | 进口（万吨） | | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口价格窗口未打开。 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors and products have different trends and investment strategies [12][13][14]. - For the Chinese stock market, Goldman Sachs has raised the 12 - month target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating and favoring domestic - oriented industries [10]. - In the futures market, different futures products have different investment strategies based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - environment [12][13][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic cycle stability [9]. - China's top - level design for urban renewal has been introduced, accelerating urban renewal actions [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips and re - emphasized the review of port transactions [9]. - In April, the growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue accelerated, and the construction industry also showed growth [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [10]. - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the bank wealth - management market adjusted, and the market may face "asset shortage" pressure [10]. - The Fed Chairman is considering adjusting the monetary policy framework, and the US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation [10]. - The US and Iran are in nuclear - related negotiations, with Iran willing to promise not to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [11]. - US economic activity slowed down, inflation cooled, and the PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing output showed different trends [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, while the number of continued claims increased [11]. 3.2 Futures Strategies 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to style drift. The Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve, and public - offering funds may adjust their portfolios [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Be cautious when steepening the yield curve due to tightened funds. Consider bearish operations in the bond market as the Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve [13]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The focus is on whether the spot price will decline further and whether shipping companies will raise prices in June. The upward catalyst is emotional, while the downward pressure is fundamental [14]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Although the Sino - US tariff friction has eased, domestic cotton prices are still under pressure due to weak demand. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15][16]. 3.2.5 Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain supply - demand gaps. Global sugar supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, which may restrict sugar prices [17][18]. 3.2.6 Oils and Oilseeds - For palm oil, the supply - demand situation is weak. For soybean meal, with the increase in US soybean planting progress and domestic oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal prices are expected to be weak [20][21]. 3.2.7 Eggs - In the short term, the decline in egg prices may slow down, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, so a bearish operation on egg futures is recommended [21][22]. 3.2.8 Apples - Consider a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in production areas [23]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Consider short - selling at high prices and focus on downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the main contract is increasing in positions and falling. A cautious and bearish operation is recommended [23][24]. 3.2.11 Crude Oil - The market is back to trading on weak fundamentals, and Trump's Middle - East visit may lead to increased supply. Oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - long term and fluctuate weakly in the short term [25]. 3.2.12 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, with short - term rebounds stronger than crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as power generation demand in the Middle East and shipping weakness [26]. 3.2.13 Plastics - Be cautious about the callback risk of L and PP. Pay attention to the situation where spot prices do not follow up [27]. 3.2.14 Methanol - Be cautious about the callback risk. Although the market sentiment has improved, methanol's supply pressure is still large [28]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - In a weak fundamental and strong macro - environment, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [29]. 3.2.16 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices are stable in the short term but face a long - term oversupply situation. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand [31][32]. 3.2.17 Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil and approach 3400. Inventory data provides some support [32]. 3.2.18 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider short - term long - positions. Although cost decline is a major negative factor, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. 3.2.19 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - After the short - term impact of tariffs, LPG prices may rebound, but the space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.20 Pulp - The market is oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [36]. 3.2.21 Urea - There are differences in the market's view on urea exports. UR09 and UR01 contracts can be short - sold when prices rise [37]. 3.2.22 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and appropriate long - positions can be taken at low prices. Alumina prices may have limited rebound space, and short - positions can be considered after the spot stabilizes [38]. 3.2.23 Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound based on its own supply - demand fundamentals [40][41]. 3.2.24 Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the market may rebound due to trade negotiations, but in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to factors such as weak demand and supply pressure [42][43]. 3.2.25 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short term, prices fluctuate with macro - policies. In the long term, without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports, there is no condition for long - positions [44][45]. 3.2.26 Ferroalloys - Do not chase high prices. Consider long - term short - positions when prices rise [46].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 15 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/5/15 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 沥青 | 白糖 | 氧化铝 | | | | | 三十债 | 棉花 | PTA | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 十债 | 玻璃 | 铝 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | 燃油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 硅铁 | 纯碱 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 锰硅 | 热轧卷板 | 燃油 | | | 客服电话： | | | 中证500股指期货 | 短纤 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 五债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 公司网址： | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties have different trend judgments, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, different futures varieties are judged as short - biased, oscillating, or long - biased [5]. - For various futures varieties, corresponding trading strategies and trend analyses are provided, such as maintaining a long - term mindset for stock index futures, considering a steeper yield curve for bond futures, etc. [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - US trade relations have eased. The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods from the US. International investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and the outlook for the Chinese stock market [7][8]. - The US 4 - month CPI was lower than expected, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [7]. - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the US and Saudi Arabia have reached a large - scale commercial agreement [8]. - The US House of Representatives is promoting a tax bill, and the US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU [9]. Futures Varieties Analysis Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to possible style drifts. The market has digested the impact of the China - US joint statement, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [11]. Bond Futures - It may be better to consider a steeper yield curve for bonds, and it is advisable to remain moderately cautious. The inter - bank funds are loose, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [12]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The focus of the market game is on whether the spot price will further decline and whether shipping companies will announce and implement price increases in June. The contract trend in the second half of the year is highly uncertain [13]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure to rebound at a low level. The actual orders and demand outlook are worrying, and the USDA supply - demand report is negative [13][14][15]. Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating. There is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The expected increase in supply restricts the upward space of sugar prices [16][17][18]. Oils and Oilseeds - Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is also expected to be weak [19][20]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The sitting - fruit situation varies by region, and the inventory is at a low level in the past 6 years [20]. Jujubes - Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may oscillate at the bottom [20][21]. Pigs - The futures price is at a discount, and the long - short situation is stalemated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand may decline [21]. Crude Oil - In the long - term, the oil price is expected to decline. In the short term, the rebound space is limited due to the easing of the trade war [22]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, and it is necessary to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the increase in production [22]. Plastics - L and PP are expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment and increased export demand for downstream products [23]. Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the digestion of macro and emotional factors [23]. Methanol - Adopt a short - term small - scale rebound strategy, but be cautious as the supply pressure is large [23]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate under the influence of the macro market, and the spot price is showing signs of loosening [23]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is expected to have limited downward space in the short term, and glass is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the inventory is stable with price support [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to the possible postponement of maintenance when the price rises continuously [26]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The futures price may rebound after offsetting the short - term tariff impact, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Pulp - The fundamentals are short - term oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [29]. Logs - The short - term is expected to oscillate. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long - term [30]. Urea - The UR2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a short - term short strategy can be adopted if it rises significantly [30]. Synthetic Rubber - The raw materials and finished products are oscillating strongly. Take profit when the price rises and buy again after the callback [31]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - term short strategy. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upward space, and the 07 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, but the medium - and long - term is still weak. Pay attention to the cost support level [33][34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price fluctuates with macro policies, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The price is in a downward channel [35][36][37]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a range - trading strategy without a clear trend [38].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 13 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/5/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 五债 | 二债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 三十债 | 白糖 | 铝 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 氧化铝 | 纯碱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 玻璃 | 沥青 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 十债 | 棉花 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 棕榈油 | 棉纱 | 短纤 | | | 客服电话： | | 豆粕 | 生猪 | PTA | | | | | 工业硅 | 鸡蛋 | 对二甲苯 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 锰硅 | 燃油 | | | | | | 硅铁 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: ICE cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. The market is still worried about demand, paying attention to the impact of the USDA May supply - demand report. Although the cotton planting progress in the US is accelerating and the drought has eased to some extent, the planting area has decreased, and future weather impacts on cotton production need to be monitored [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton spot prices are mainly falling. The de - stocking of downstream yarn has slowed down, and textile enterprises have insufficient motivation to purchase cotton. External demand and export demand suppress cotton prices. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak and volatile state [7]. - Basis: The basis is expected to weaken [7]. - Spread between near and far months: The spread between near and far months is oscillating and weakening [7]. - Unilateral: It shows a low - level oscillating trend, and there is still downward pressure in the medium - term [7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Price changes: The futures closing price of NYBOT No. 2 cotton decreased by 2.40% to 66.72; the International Cotton Index M increased by 0.27% to 75.1; the China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B increased by 6.63% to 13,595; some other related price indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The overall trend of the international cotton market is still in a low - level oscillation, fluctuating around trade tariff events, and the market is waiting for the USDA May supply - demand report [4]. - Supply - demand factors: Globally, cotton production is expected to decline by 0.06% to 26.354 million tons, inventory is expected to increase by 0.68% to 17.1915 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 1.12% to 67.97%. In the US, weekly net cotton export sales decreased by 39.31% to 1.43 million tons. In China, production is expected to be stable, commercial inventory decreased by 14.20% to 4.1526 million tons, imports decreased by 41.67% to 7 million tons, downstream开工 decreased by 2.80% to 68%, and textile export value increased by 222.8687% to 2.418622 million US dollars [6]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Price trends: Presented the price trends of international cotton index, Chinese yarn price index, and Chinese cotton price index over a certain period [11][12][13]. - Basis: The cotton basis decreased by 18.21% to 1,172, and the yarn basis decreased by 33.33% to 1,080. Both are expected to weaken [4]. - Internal - external spread: Showed the import cotton price, internal - external cotton price spread, import yarn price, and internal - external yarn price spread [17]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - Presented the global cotton production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio over the years, as well as the US cotton export signing volume, shipment rate, and cumulative export volume [20][21]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industrial Data - Production and demand: Showed the production and demand of Chinese cotton over the years, as well as the end - of - period inventory [23][24]. - Commercial inventory: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is in a de - stocking state, and presented the weekly and monthly values of commercial inventory [27][28]. - Import situation: Showed the annual and monthly import volumes of Chinese cotton [30]. - Spinning mill inventory and enterprise operation: Presented the inventory days of cotton and yarn in spinning mills, the starting rate of domestic textile enterprises, cotton textile profit, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton yarn and Zhengzhou cotton [31][33][34]. - Yarn and textile imports and exports: Showed the monthly import volume of yarn and the monthly export value of textile yarns and clothing [37][38]. Exchange Rate Trends - Presented the trends of the US dollar index and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [41][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that urea exports are basically confirmed, and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remain the focus of the domestic market. The urea futures market is mainly driven by export expectations. The domestic policy aims to maintain supply and price stability, and if there are price fluctuations, the government will intervene. This is unfavorable for urea futures bulls, and it is expected that urea futures will reflect the policy intention [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - **Domestic Urea Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of urea in different regions of China, including Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - **International Urea Prices and Spreads**: It shows historical price trends of small - particle urea FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factories for port collection and the spread between the Middle East and Shandong factory port collection costs from 2021 to 2025 [11][12]. - **Unit Nitrogen Element Prices and Spreads**: The report provides historical price trends of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [14][15]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: It shows historical price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The report presents historical price trends of the urea futures 09 contract, its basis, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 to 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - **Domestic Urea Production**: The weekly average daily production of urea has been increasing, reaching 20.43 tons in the week of May 22 - 28, 2025. There were changes in the number of parking and resuming enterprises, and 5 enterprises were planned to be under maintenance and 1 was expected to resume production in the current week. The report also shows historical data on the weekly average daily production, cumulative production, and production by raw material (natural gas and coal) from 2021 to 2025 [5][25][26]. - **Coal Prices and Urea Profits**: The price of anthracite is stable, and the fixed - bed process production cost in Shanxi is 1480 yuan/ton. The profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is 410 yuan/ton, and it is expected that prices will remain stable [5][28][29]. - **Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.56 tons, a decrease of 12.61 tons (- 10.58%) compared to the previous period. The report also shows historical data on enterprise inventory, apparent consumption, order volume, and domestic apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [5][31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase steadily. The report also shows historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate, inventory, import, export, and net export from 2021 to 2025 [5][36][37]. - **Compound Fertilizer Upstream**: For phosphate fertilizers, it shows historical data on the weekly production, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate from 2021 to 2025. For potassium fertilizers, it shows historical data on the domestic start - up rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume from 2021 to 2025 [38][39][42]. - **Melamine**: The report shows historical data on the weekly production, price, ratio to urea, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Urea Export**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory The report shows historical data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the spot price of eggs remained weak. As of May 11, the average price of pink eggs was 2.8 yuan per catty, and the average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty. The current egg price is below the comprehensive cost line, approaching the daily feed cost. [4] - The supply and demand of eggs are still relatively loose, with significant supply pressure. As the egg price drops, the elimination of old chickens has accelerated slightly, but it is difficult to effectively relieve the supply pressure in the short term. [4] - Although there are issues with chicken diseases affecting egg production, it is expected that the increasing trend of egg supply in the future will not change. [4] - In terms of consumption, the low vegetable prices are a negative factor. However, as the egg price continues to fall, there are more egg promotions in other industries, increasing egg consumption. At the same time, the willingness to store eggs in cold storage has increased at low prices, providing short - term support for the egg price. [4] - It is expected that the short - term decline of egg prices will slow down, but the medium - term supply and demand of eggs will remain loose. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The average price of pink eggs was 2.80 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 4.1%. The average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty, down 0.15 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 5.0%. The price difference between red and pink eggs was 0.03 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 51.5%. [3][4] - **Basis**: The 06 basis was - 26 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 174 yuan from the previous period. The 09 basis was - 887 yuan per 501 kilograms, down 199 yuan from the previous period. The spot price dropped significantly this week, and the basis weakened. Currently, the futures have a premium over the spot. [4] - **Spread**: The 6 - 7 spread was - 129 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 2 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 1.5%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 732 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 27 yuan from the previous period. The short - term weakness of the spot and the potential increase in future supply pressure suppress the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts are supported by the logic of production capacity reduction and feed price increase. Therefore, the reverse spread logic of shorting near - month and longing far - month contracts still exists. [4] - **Strategy**: For the 06 - 10 contracts, maintain the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm. Pay attention to the reverse spread of shorting the 7 - month contract and longing the 9 - month contract. [4] 3.2 Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - The report presents historical data on the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the price difference between different types of eggs, and the basis and spread of different egg futures contracts from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][13] 3.3 Egg Supply - Side Data - **Laying Hens' Situation**: The in - production inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. At the end of April, it increased by 6.7% year - on - year. The egg - laying rate was 91.27%, down 0.17 percentage points from the previous period, a decrease of 0.19%. [3] - **Elimination Situation**: The price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan per catty, down 0.07 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 1.28%. The number of eliminated chickens was 17.25 million, an increase of 0.67 million from the previous period, an increase of 4.1%. The average age of eliminated chickens was 535 days, down 1 day from the previous period. [3] - **Chick Situation**: The price of laying hen chicks was 4.14 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 97%, down 2 percentage points from the previous period. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 45.975 million, down 0.35 million from the previous period, a decrease of 0.8%. [3] - **Inventory Situation**: The production inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous period, an increase of 1.7%. The circulation inventory was 1.32 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous period, an increase of 2.3%. The number of trucks arriving in the sales areas remained high. [3] 3.4 Egg Production Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The feed cost of eggs was 2.78 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.33 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. The cost of raising chickens was 34.09 yuan per chicken, up 0.05 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.1%. [3] - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of egg production was - 0.55 yuan per unit, down 0.25 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 81.7%. [3] 3.5 Egg Consumption - Side Data - The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 8591.6 tons, down 224.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.5%. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 565.83 tons, down 1.5 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.3%. [3]

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月12日 --------山东地区氯碱企业开工下滑 氯碱价格双双走强，利润创新高 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为83.9%，较上周环比-0.2%。西北、华东、华南、西南新增重启或提负，带动负荷不同程度提升，周内华 | | | | 北有装置减产导致负荷下滑。山东产能利用率-2.2%至88.6%。本周来看，西北、华南、西南均有装置减产及检修，因此综合来看，预计下周烧碱产能利用率降 | | | | 至83.6%左右，周产量80万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） | | | 氧化铝 | 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购32%离子膜碱自4月13日起价格下调15元 ...