Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the polypropylene market have changed little and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The strategy suggests a weak and volatile mindset, guarding against callback risks, and a strategy of selling call options [1][10] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided in the document 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production met expectations, with few new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. This week's production was 783,100 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to reach 815,500 tons and 844,200 tons respectively. The maintenance loss this week was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week, and it is expected to be 0 in the next two weeks [6] - In June, exports were 235,300 tons and imports were 243,300 tons, meeting expectations. The weekly average import and export volumes remained stable this week, with imports at 75,000 tons and exports at 37,500 tons [6] Demand - This week, there was a slight inventory build - up. Next week, it is expected to continue to de - stock slightly, and domestic apparent demand will slightly decline. Next week, the seasonal apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons [6] - Downstream replenishment willingness has declined as downstream enterprises had replenished a lot before and are currently digesting inventory [10] 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis as a whole showed a trend of fluctuating and strengthening, with limited basis opportunities. The East China basis weakened by 20 points, the North China basis remained unchanged, and the South China basis weakened by 20 points [9] Spread - The inter - month spread fluctuated. The 1 - 5 inter - month spread decreased by 1 point, the 5 - 9 inter - month spread decreased by 2 points, and the 9 - 1 inter - month spread increased by 3 points [9] - The spread between different varieties also fluctuated. The spread between copolymer and draw decreased by 30 points, the spread between injection and draw increased by 20 points, and the spread between fiber and draw decreased by 50 points [9] - The spread between PP and 3MA strengthened. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy had previously been recommended to take profit and exit the market, and there are no suitable opportunities in the short term [9] - The LL - PP spread fluctuated this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later [9] 4. Summary and Outlook Market Outlook - The cost side fluctuated and strengthened this week, and it is expected that there will be little change in the cost side next week. The profit of upstream production processes is generally weakening, and the import profit is still inverted [7] - The upstream is in the peak maintenance period, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, with a focus on active shipment. The mid - stream shipment situation has slightly deteriorated, and some spot - futures arbitrageurs have an opportunity to sell after the decline in the futures price [10] Strategies - The strategy suggests a weak and volatile mindset, guarding against callback risks, and a strategy of selling call options. The multi - PP and short - MA spread strategy had previously been recommended to take profit and exit the market [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the bullish sentiment in commodities has faded, and methanol has started to return to its fundamentals. Continuous inventory accumulation at ports has exerted significant pressure on the methanol futures market, causing the futures price to decline sharply. Methanol currently has high profits for upstream producers and low profits for downstream producers. After the sentiment fades and it returns to fundamentals, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, methanol is generally weak. After the sentiment fades, it is expected to enter a weakly fluctuating pattern. A weakly fluctuating approach is recommended [3][94]. - For the unilateral strategy, a weakly fluctuating approach is recommended, considering a strategy of selling call options. For the hedging strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [4][95]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was 09 + 20 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes fluctuated weakly this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late September was around 09 + 20 yuan/ton [17]. - Methanol's coastal basis fluctuated this week. The inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market prices fluctuated this week, and the market prices in the northwest region also fluctuated [26][37]. - The price difference between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [47]. - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered and a small amount can be held [61][63]. 3. Industry Chain Profits - There were many new methanol production units under maintenance, and the methanol production capacity utilization rate weakened slightly. Many maintenance units resumed production, and methanol production began to increase [69][73]. - The dimethyl ether production capacity utilization rate fluctuated. The formaldehyde production capacity utilization rate rebounded with fluctuations. The production capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region fluctuated at a high level [78][82]. - This week, the production capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins plants fluctuated, and MTO profits continued to recover [85]. 4. Market Expectations - Recently, the bullish sentiment in commodities has faded, and methanol has started to return to its fundamentals. Continuous inventory accumulation at ports has exerted significant pressure on the methanol futures market, causing the futures price to decline sharply. Methanol currently has high profits for upstream producers and low profits for downstream producers. After the sentiment fades and it returns to fundamentals, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, methanol is generally weak. After the sentiment fades, it is expected to enter a weakly fluctuating pattern. A weakly fluctuating approach is recommended [3][94]. - For the unilateral strategy, a weakly fluctuating approach is recommended, considering a strategy of selling call options. For the hedging strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [4][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The central bank conducts large - scale reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF roll - over. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is frustrated due to high PPI data [10]. - For stock index futures, consider taking profits on the covered strategy and pay attention to July's macro data. For Treasury bond futures, there may be a short - term rebound, and the curve - steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [12][13]. - Steel and ore prices are expected to remain volatile, and double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. For ferroalloys, consider long - short spreads or reverse spreads, and short on rebounds [14][15][17]. - For soda ash and glass, maintain a short - on - rallies strategy for soda ash and stay on the sidelines for glass. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, aluminum prices may be weakly volatile, and alumina prices may be strong in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Zinc prices are expected to weaken, while lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon prices will be in a wide - range shock [18][20][21]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices may be shorted on rallies in the long - term, sugar prices are restricted by increasing supply, egg prices may have limited upside during the Mid - Autumn Festival, and apple prices can be long - short spread. Corn prices can be shorted on the far - month contract, and hog prices can be shorted cautiously on the near - month contract [27][30][33]. - For energy and chemicals, crude oil may enter a supply - surplus pattern, and fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastic prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and rubber prices may have limited downside. Methanol prices are expected to be weak, and LPG prices are prone to fall [40][42][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank conducts 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, and the cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the maturing amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of 30 billion yuan of MLF roll - over [10]. - The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is frustrated as the US July PPI soars to 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee oppose large - scale interest - rate cuts [10]. - Ping An Insurance increases its holdings of CPIC H - shares, reaching the threshold for a mandatory public announcement. This year, there has been a third wave of insurance companies' share - buying sprees [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen clarifies that she is not pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, while the number of continued jobless claims decreased to 1.953 million [11]. Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to take profits on the covered strategy and pay attention to July's macro data. On Thursday, the A - share market rose and then fell, with over 4,600 stocks declining. The market turnover increased to 2.31 trillion yuan. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations have a net injection of 30 billion yuan, and the market is affected by insurance companies' share - buying and US PPI data [12]. Treasury Bond Futures - There may be a short - term rebound, and the curve - steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market was loose in the morning and tightened slightly in the afternoon. The bond market was under pressure when the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations have a net injection of 30 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the MLF roll - over [13]. Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, it is relatively mild. From a supply - demand perspective, the contradiction is not prominent. The demand is seasonally weak, but the mid - term supply - demand is balanced. The supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are expected to remain volatile. The prices of steel products and imported iron ore have fluctuated, with the iron ore trading volume decreasing by 31.71% on a daily basis and increasing by 15.72% on a weekly basis [14][15]. Coal and Coking - Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. The strict inspection of coal mine over - production and coke - enterprise production restrictions have led to price adjustments. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short - term, but the possibility of a decline in steel mill's molten iron output and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply still put pressure on prices [15][16]. Ferroalloys - The current spot - futures pressure of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is high, but the basis has not widened significantly during the price decline. The steel - tendering price is high. Consider long - short spreads (ferrosilicon - ferromanganese) or reverse spreads of ferromanganese's near - far months. Short on rebounds if there is an upward movement [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain a short - on - rallies strategy and exit flexibly if the positive feedback continues. For glass, stay on the sidelines. The production of soda ash has increased, and the inventory is under pressure. The inventory of glass has increased, and the spot market is weak [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum prices may be weakly volatile in the short - term due to weak demand in the off - season, but may rise in the long - term with the approaching peak season. Alumina prices may be strong in the short - term but weak in the long - term due to high supply and increasing inventory. Zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increasing inventory and supply. Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short - term supply - demand gaps and will be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon prices will be volatile, and polysilicon prices will be in a wide - range shock due to policy and supply - demand factors [20][21][22]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices may be shorted on rallies in the long - term due to weak downstream demand and potential future production increases. Sugar prices are restricted by increasing supply, but attention should be paid to the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking demand. Egg prices may have limited upside during the Mid - Autumn Festival due to large supply pressure. Apple prices can be long - short spread. Corn prices can be shorted on the far - month contract, and hog prices can be shorted cautiously on the near - month contract [27][30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil may enter a supply - surplus pattern, and attention should be paid to US sanctions on Russia and the peak - season demand. Fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastic prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Rubber prices may have limited downside. Methanol prices are expected to be weak. LPG prices are prone to fall due to sufficient supply and weak demand [40][42][43]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp fundamentals are turning to inventory accumulation, which restricts the price, but there is still support from the price - holding and production - cut of broad - leaf pulp. Consider spread trading opportunities. Log prices are affected by capital, and short - term observation is recommended [51][52]. Urea - In a weak fundamental environment, urea futures prices are expected to be weak. The spot price may decline further over the weekend, with weak new orders and downstream rigid demand [52]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices are turning weakly volatile in the short - term, with limited downside. Consider short - term long - on - dips with a stop - loss and be cautious about chasing high prices [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, a steepening strategy can be considered. The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile, and double - coke prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. For double - silicon, avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [14][15][16]. 2. **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term. Zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [24][25]. 3. **Agricultural products**: For cotton, short - term watch and long - term short on rallies; for sugar, pay attention to short - covering opportunities during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. For eggs, short on rallies for near - term contracts; for apples, use a light - position positive spread strategy; for corn, short on far - term contracts; for dates, stay on the sidelines; for pigs, be cautious and short on near - term contracts [30][33][35][37][39][40][41]. 4. **Energy and chemicals**: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; for fuel oil, it follows crude oil and has a complex fundamental situation; for plastics, expect limited rebound space; for rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term; for methanol, it will continue to be weakly volatile; for asphalt, it follows crude oil; for LPG, it is prone to fall and difficult to rise; for pulp, observe the inventory and trading volume; for logs, observe and consider hedging on rallies; for urea, the futures price is weak; for synthetic rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term [44][45][46][47][48][51][53][54][55][56][57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information 1. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [10]. 2. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption [10]. 3. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [10]. 4. Market supervision and industry and information technology departments plan to strengthen the management of intelligent connected new energy vehicles [11]. 5. The US Treasury Secretary called for a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level [11]. 6. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily position - opening limit and handling fee rate for coking coal futures contracts [12]. Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider buying on dips. The A - share market rose on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high since December 2021. However, the on - balance - sheet new RMB loans turned negative in July [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider a steepening strategy. The money market is loose, and the bond market first weakened and then strengthened. The long - end bonds can be considered to maintain a weakly volatile and bearish view, and the steepening of the yield curve is still relatively advantageous [15][16]. Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Policies are becoming milder, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to be volatile. Steel mill profits are mixed, and iron ore prices are also volatile [16][17][18]. - **Double - coke**: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure [18][19]. - **Double - silicon**: The current price is in a reasonable range, and the medium - term supply - demand logic is weak. Avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [19]. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand in the off - season but may rise in the future. Alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term [24]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [25]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile, but there is pressure from industrial hedging [26][27]. - **Polysilicon**: In the short term, it may return to the contradiction between fundamentals and warehouse receipts, with wide - range fluctuations [28]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Short - term watch and long - term short on rallies due to low downstream demand and new crop production pressure [30][31][32]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar stocks are low, but the increase in processed sugar may restrict prices. Pay attention to short - covering opportunities during stocking [33][34][35]. - **Eggs**: The Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, but the supply pressure is large. Short on rallies for near - term contracts and consider a short 10 - long 12 spread strategy [35][36]. - **Apples**: Use a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the price changes of early - maturing apples and new - season Fuji apples [37]. - **Corn**: Short on far - term contracts. The market sentiment is bearish, but there is support at the bottom [38][39]. - **Dates**: Stay on the sidelines as the spot market in Hebei is weak [40]. - **Pigs**: Be cautious and short on near - term contracts. The supply pressure is high, and pay attention to the development of African swine fever [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Consider shorting on rallies as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil. The current fundamental situation is complex, with factors such as power demand in the Middle East and low - sulfur fuel oil demand affecting it [45]. - **Plastic**: The rebound space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to prevent callback risks [46]. - **Rubber**: Slightly strong in the short term, but be cautious when chasing highs [47]. - **Methanol**: Continue to be weakly volatile due to the contradiction between tight inland supply and loose port supply [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price in Shandong has support, but the futures price has limited upward space [50]. - **Asphalt**: Follows crude oil, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [51]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Unilateral prices are expected to follow the cost downward. Consider a strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA [52]. - **LPG**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term, making the price prone to fall [53]. - **Pulp**: The market trading has improved, and the price has followed the increase. Observe the inventory and trading volume [54]. - **Logs**: The price is affected by capital, and it is recommended to observe and consider hedging on rallies [55]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak due to weak fundamentals [56]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Slightly strong in the short term, be cautious when chasing highs [57].

[Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/8/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 農药 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 液化石油气 | 铝 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 原油 | 氧化铝 | 橡胶 | | | | 年 | 沥青 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 纯碱 | 燃油 | 焦炭 | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | 焦煤 | | | | 五债 | 烧碱 | 纸浆 | | | | 十债 | 棉纱 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 三十债 | 棉花 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 工业硅 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 尿素 | | | | | | 玻璃 | | | | | | 乙二醇 | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | | 硅铁 | | | | | | 王米 | | | | | | PTA | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | | | 对二甲 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 12 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 护铝 | 豆粕 | | 直海 | 沪银 | 鸡蛋 | | 沪铝 | 焦炭 | 郑棉 | | 菜油 | 菜粕 | 흐드 | | PTA | 橡胶 | 铁矿石 | | 塑料 | 炉金 | 沥青 | | 螺纹钢 | 沪锡 | 直一 | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend and directional outlooks for various commodities, which can be inferred as implicit ratings: - **Trend空头**: No specific commodities mentioned as purely "Trend空头", but some commodities are in a "震荡偏空" (shaky and bearish) trend, including plastics, methanol, etc. [2] - **震荡偏空**: Plastics, methanol, etc. [2] - **震荡偏多**: Pesticides, caustic soda, etc. [2] - **趋势多头**: No specific commodities mentioned as purely "趋势多头", but some commodities show strong upward - potential trends. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, use short - term trend thinking, be cautious of volume increase with no price increase, and consider covered call strategies. For bond futures, consider the steepening strategy. [10][11] - **Black commodities**: Steel and ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. For ferroalloys, consider trading spreads. For soda ash and glass, short soda ash at high prices and observe glass. [14][16][17][18] - **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, while alumina may repair its discount. Zinc prices will decline, and lithium carbonate prices will be strong. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will fluctuate. [21][22][24] - **Agricultural products**: For cotton, adopt a bearish strategy at high prices. For sugar, prices are under pressure but watch for low - absorption demand during holidays. For eggs, sell on rebounds. For apples, use light - position positive arbitrage. For corn, near - month contracts will range - bound, and far - month contracts can be shorted. For red dates, observe. For hogs, short near - month contracts and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage. [28][31][32][34][36][37] - **Energy and chemical**: For crude oil, consider shorting at high prices. Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices. Plastics will fluctuate weakly. Rubber may be slightly strong in the short term. Methanol will fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda can be bought at low prices. Asphalt follows oil prices. The polyester industry chain will be weak. LPG prices are likely to fall. Pulp and log prices need further observation. [39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][49] Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - **Strategy**: Short - term trend thinking, be cautious of volume increase with no price increase, and consider covered call strategies to increase returns. - **Market situation**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to 3635.13 points, with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. July's foreign trade data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was slightly lower than expected. [10] Bond Futures - **Strategy**: Consider the steepening strategy in the short term. - **Market logic**: The current core trading logic in the bond market is loose liquidity, with DR001 at 1.3%, driving the strength of bonds with maturities below 10 years, but not affecting ultra - long - term bonds. [11] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - **Market view**: From a policy perspective, subsequent policy efforts may be moderate. Seasonal demand is weak, but mid - term decline is limited. Supply is expected to remain strong, and prices are expected to fluctuate. [14][15] Coal and Coking - **View**: Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. Supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. [16] Ferroalloys - **Market outlook**: The double - silicon futures are in a reasonable range. Consider trading spreads or reverse spreads instead of shorting directly. [17] Soda Ash and Glass - **View**: Short soda ash at high prices and observe glass. Soda ash supply is high, and there is inventory pressure. Glass needs to digest speculative inventory. [18][19] Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: Demand is weak in the off - season, but price support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - **Alumina**: The discount may be repaired, but it may also fluctuate weakly in the future due to supply pressure. [21] Zinc - **View**: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices will decline due to increased supply and weak demand. [22] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi, the supply - demand gap will widen, and prices will be strong in the short term. [22][23] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: With polysilicon's resumption of production, the downward adjustment space is limited, and it will fluctuate. - **Polysilicon**: It will fluctuate widely, with policy expectations conflicting with fundamental oversupply. [24][26] Agricultural Products Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. Adopt a bearish strategy at high prices, considering both demand concerns and expected production increases. [28][29] Sugar - **View**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected supply increases, but watch for low - absorption demand during holidays. [31][32] Eggs - **View**: Spot prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the increase may be limited. Sell on rebounds. [32][33] Apples - **View**: Use light - position positive arbitrage. Pay attention to the prices of early - maturing apples and new - season apples. [34] Corn - **View**: Near - month contracts will range - bound, and far - month contracts can be shorted based on cost logic. [34][35] Red Dates - **View**: Observe. Pay attention to production areas' weather and sales areas' prices. [36] Hogs - **View**: Short near - month contracts and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage due to supply pressure. [37][38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - **View**: OPEC+ is increasing supply, and demand is uncertain. Consider shorting at high prices. [39] Fuel Oil - **View**: Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, and the current supply - demand situation is complex. [40] Plastics - **View**: Polyolefins will fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options. [41] Rubber - **View**: It may be slightly strong in the short term. Consider short - term long positions with stop - losses. [42] Methanol - **View**: The market is in a stalemate, and prices will fluctuate weakly. Consider selling call options. [43] Caustic Soda - **View**: Adopt a long - at - low - prices strategy as the market no longer expects further price drops. [43][44] Asphalt - **View**: Asphalt follows oil prices, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season. [45] Polyester Industry Chain - **View**: The industry chain will be weak due to poor raw material performance. [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **View**: LPG prices are likely to fall due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [46][47] Pulp - **View**: Observe port de - stocking and spot trading improvement. [48] Logs - **View**: Observe and consider hedging at high prices. [48] Urea - **View**: Urea prices will fluctuate weakly due to weak domestic demand. [48][49] Synthetic Rubber - **View**: It will fluctuate slightly. Consider the long NR - short BR arbitrage. [50]

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot price of eggs dropped significantly, with a still high supply level. Under hot and humid weather, all sectors actively sold their goods, but market demand was average, and downstream procurement was cautious. After continuous price drops, the industry's willingness to purchase increased over the weekend, and the spot price stopped falling, showing a slow upward trend in the short term. As of August 9, the average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin. Egg prices were close to the feed cost line, and the industry was in deep losses [2][4]. - In August, the egg supply level remained high, and high egg prices would prompt cold - storage eggs to enter the market. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so there were no bright spots in consumption in the first and middle of August, and there was no strong driving factor for egg prices. However, egg consumption might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [4]. - The egg - laying hen production capacity was still large. Recently, the number of old hen culls did not increase significantly, and the new hen laying level was high. The in - production inventory of laying hens might continue to increase month - on - month. Also, there were many cold - storage eggs and old hen molting this year, shifting some supply pressure to the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. Therefore, the supply pressure during this year's Mid - Autumn Festival was expected to be large, and the increase in egg prices before the festival was limited [4]. - Last week, futures contracts continued to fall, and the main 09 contract hit a record low. However, the fundamental situation of loose egg supply and demand did not change significantly. As the industry entered the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, the market was divided on the height of egg price increases. Due to the large supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival this year, the expected increase was limited. The 09 contract had some post - festival attributes, and its valuation was low, so the value of bottom - fishing was not high. In terms of operation, it was recommended to maintain the idea of shorting on rebounds, pay attention to light - position operation and timely profit - taking, and be cautious about bottom - fishing [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - **Price**: The average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin this week, down 0.27 yuan (-9.0%) and 0.21 yuan (-6.7%) respectively from last week. The red - egg to powder - egg price difference was 0.15 yuan per jin, up 0.06 yuan (64.8%) from last week [2][4]. - **Basis**: The 10 - contract basis was - 482 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 238 yuan (-97.5%) from last week, and the 09 - contract basis was - 583 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 132 yuan (-29.3%) from last week [4]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 175 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan (52.2%) from last week, and the 9 - 10 spread was 101 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 106 yuan (-51.2%) from last week. It was recommended to gradually take profits on the previous reverse - spread combination [4]. 2. Egg Supply - Side Data - **Laying Situation**: In August, the laying level was expected to continue to increase as the chicks hatched in March (corresponding to laying in August) had both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the number of chicks replenished. The market remained in a situation where large - sized eggs were in short supply while small - sized eggs were in surplus [2]. - **Culling Situation**: The culling price of old hens was 5.60 yuan per jin, down 0.25 yuan (-4.27%) from last week. The culling volume was 13.71 million feathers, up 700,000 feathers (5.4%) from last week. The culling age was 506 days, down 1 day (-0.2%) from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The in - production inventory was 1.356 billion feathers, up 0.016 billion feathers (1.2%) from last month, and the egg - laying rate was 90.15%, down 0.83 percentage points (-0.91%) from the previous half - month. The production inventory was 1.03 days, up 0.11 days (12.0%) from last week, and the circulation inventory was 1.19 days, up 0.15 days (14.4%) from last week [2]. - **Replenishment**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 3.29 yuan per chick, down 0.05 yuan (-1.5%) from last week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 68%, unchanged from last week. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.98 million feathers, down 770,000 feathers (-1.9%) from last month [2]. 3. Laying - Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The feed cost of eggs was 2.74 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.4%) from last week. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.20 yuan per jin, up 0.05 yuan (1.5%) from last week. The cost of raising a hen was 33.42 yuan per hen, up 0.09 yuan (0.3%) from last week [2]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive breeding profit was - 0.51 yuan per jin, down 0.36 yuan (-241.1%) from last week [2]. 4. Consumption - Side Data - **Sales Volume**: The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 7,528.5 tons, down 368.6 tons (-4.7%) from last week. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 581.2 tons, down 14.76 tons (-2.5%) from last week [2]. - **Consumption Outlook**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather was unfavorable for consumption, and terminal market demand was average. Dealers and food processing enterprises were cautious about purchasing eggs. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so egg consumption was expected to be hard to improve effectively in the first and middle of August. However, it might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential production cuts in some surveyed areas, possible poor quality of new - season jujubes, and rising spot prices. Negative factors are high inventory, a consumption off - season in August, and a likely normal but relatively small - yield year. The market is in the jujube expansion period in Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to fruit - setting and weather in the production areas, as well as sales volume and price in the sales areas. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, and go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Spot Prices (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively [6]. Spot Prices (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival volume has doubled compared to last week. The finished product price has increased by 0.30 yuan/kg week - on - week, and the daily average transaction is 3 - 40% of the arrival volume. The grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade is 9.50 - 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.50 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.20 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.50 yuan/kg [10]. Spot Prices (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable week - on - week. The price difference between special grade and first - grade is 0.92 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from last week, and the difference between first - grade and second - grade is 1.3 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week [13]. Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62% [16]. Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.50 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 400 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 2.42 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg from last week [19]. Futures - Spot Basis (Special Grade, First Grade) - The jujube futures price has weakened, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has strengthened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou is at a discount of 1040 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22]. Contract Price Difference - The change in the 1 - 5 month spread has narrowed, with a discount of 175 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread has a premium of 1330 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates, with a discount of 1155 yuan/ton. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is considered for the 9 - 1 month spread [25]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 8, the number of registered jujube warehouse receipts is 9214, and the number of valid forecasts is 1705, totaling 10919 [30].