Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - liquidity boosts the stock market. The recent strength of the stock market is due to a macro - combination of weak earnings, loose liquidity, and a weak US dollar. However, due to crowded trading, tail risks should be guarded against, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy. The equity market was strong, but the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points. Option turnover remained low, and implied volatility declined in some varieties. The index faces resistance, so it is advisable to continue holding covered - call positions [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: With loose funds, the bond market is oscillating strongly. The central bank's large - scale net injection and weak export and inflation data support the bond market. In the short term, the long - end may remain volatile, and the short - end may be slightly stronger [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their spreads changed. Total positions also changed. The market opened higher and rose due to positive news and micro - liquidity. It is recommended to wait and see, with the risk of insufficient incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% but did not break through 3400 points. Option turnover increased slightly but remained low, and implied volatility decreased. It is recommended to hold covered - call positions, with the risk of insufficient option market liquidity [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted a large - scale net injection. It is recommended for trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies, with risks such as insufficient monetary easing [6][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar The report lists economic indicators for China and the US for the current week, including PPI, CPI, export and import rates, and money supply rates [8]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in the UK [9]. - The general offices of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, including measures on social security, public services, and housing [9]. - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.96 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. New energy passenger car retail sales were 1.021 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.2% [9]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions to monitor data of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data content is not fully presented in the provided text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall: The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. For individual products, it gives ratings such as "oscillating" for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, silicon - manganese, and silicon - iron; "oscillating weakly" for glass, soda ash, and coking coal; and "oscillating with a downward view" for coke [7][8][11][12][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market is in a low - level oscillation state. After a short - term rebound driven by favorable news, prices are under pressure again due to the approaching off - season. The demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is facing a decline. Although some production links are in a state of loss, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices of various products are expected to show different trends of oscillation or weakening [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter shipment rush, with an expected seasonal increase in shipment volume, which will remain high until early July [2][7] - Demand: The profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7] - Inventory: The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, the port may have a slight inventory increase when the ore arrives at the port, but the inventory increase range is limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element Coking Coal - Supply: Although the output of some individual coal mines has decreased slightly, most coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transaction of Mongolian coal is limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply is still loose [3][11] - Demand: The coke output has started to decline. Under the environment of increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits, the coke output tends to decline [3][11] - Price: The supply contraction is limited, the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, and the price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected to operate weakly [3][11] Coke - Supply: The coke output is at a high level but has started to decline, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises continues to increase [3][10] - Demand: The molten iron output is declining, and the demand for coke is expected to weaken further [10] - Price: After the third round of price cuts, there is still a downward expectation in the market. The price is expected to face downward pressure [8][10] 3.3 Alloys Silicon - Manganese - Cost: The market is cautiously waiting and watching, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of decline [5][14] - Supply: The production cost in some areas has been slightly repaired, and the supply has increased slightly, but some areas are still in a loss state, and the manufacturers' willingness to ship is limited [5][14] - Demand: The black market is entering the off - season, the market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream has a strong attitude of pressing prices. The steel tenders are in progress, and the pricing is low [5][14] - Price: The supply - demand situation tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to decline. However, due to cost inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to ship is low. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate [5][14] Silicon - Iron - Cost: The cost may still have a dragging effect, and the Lanzhou - carbon market is stable [14] - Supply: The supply has increased slightly [5][14] - Demand: The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious [5][14] - Price: The disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term. The future market should pay attention to steel tenders and production conditions [5][14] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Demand: The off - season demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling [5][12] - Supply: There are expectations of cold - repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists [5][12] - Price: The disk is at a discount to the spot, but the price cut of Hubei's spot guides the disk down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][12] Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming [5][12] - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to be for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass melting may not be sustainable [12] - Price: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12] 3.5 Other Products Steel - Demand: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, especially for rebar [7] - Supply: The molten iron output is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased significantly, but the molten iron output may have reached its peak [7] - Price: Affected by falling raw material prices and pessimistic expectations for domestic demand, the short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7] Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume has decreased again this week, and the resources are slightly tight [8] - Demand: The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process has slightly increased, but the cost of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is in a deeper loss [8] - Price: Due to the pessimistic market expectation for off - season demand, the price of scrap steel is expected to oscillate following the finished products [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the influence on demand and inflation continued to show in May. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies maintain stability, focusing on utilizing existing resources in the short term. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to remain resilient, but export and price data may face pressure due to trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The adverse effects of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April are evident. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. In April, the trade deficit was $616.2 billion, with imports significantly decreasing. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" economic outlook. However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth reduced market expectations of Fed rate cuts. It is predicted that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - **Domestic**: Policies remain stable, with a short - term focus on using existing resources. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to be resilient, but export and price data may face pressure due to trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [8]. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [8]. **Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market is stable, and cautious covered call strategies are recommended. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [8]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: Demand continued to decline, and the market was mainly range - bound. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic hot - metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts has started, and market sentiment has cooled down. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The trading atmosphere was light, and upstream inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Demand expectations were poor, and the market was under pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment was cautious, and the market was in a low - level range. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply rumors have caused upstream inventories to accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is gradually recovering, and sentiment is affecting the market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [8]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: Inventories continued to accumulate, and copper prices were in a high - level range. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [8]. - **Alumina**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina market is in a high - level range. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Trade tensions have eased, and aluminum prices are in a strong - side range. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Zinc ingot inventories have decreased again, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support still exists, and lead prices are fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are generally weak, and nickel prices are in a wide - range fluctuation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices have rebounded slightly, and the market is fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Inventories in both markets continued to decline, and tin prices are fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The approaching flood season is putting pressure on silicon prices. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have decreased slightly, and lithium prices have risen with reduced positions. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **LPG**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of LPG is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Profits have continued to expand, and the downward pressure on asphalt futures prices has increased. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices rose, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate with crude oil. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Coal prices have stabilized, and the port basis has strengthened. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: The market is weak, waiting for the opportunity to rebound when agricultural demand is released. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to ethylene glycol terminal demand [11]. - **PX**: PX prices declined due to polyester production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [11]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined due to polyester production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to polyester production [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to terminal textile and clothing exports [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: High - level production has led to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to future bottle - chip production [11]. - **PP**: Oil prices rebounded, and attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [11]. - **Plastic**: The raw - material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [11]. - **Styrene**: The current situation is still poor, and styrene is in a weak - side fluctuation. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: Short - term sentiment has improved, and PVC has a weak rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and it is recommended to short caustic soda. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production in May is expected to be limited, and market sentiment has stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices have declined, and the basis has weakened. The technical rebound of the market is expected to be limited. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The spot market is stable, and the market continues to rise. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Supply has increased while demand is weak, and pig prices are weak. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and the market is mainly range - bound. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: Demand has weakened, and there is insufficient driving force for cotton prices. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to have sufficient supply, and the domestic market is driven down by the overseas market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to abnormal weather [11]. - **Timber**: Spot prices are weak, and the market is declining. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains the view that the US dollar index will fluctuate weakly. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly in the range of 98.5 - 99.5. The factors supporting the US dollar may be the still - resilient fundamentals and potential new trade agreements. However, the weak rebound of the US dollar may reflect that the mid - term cross - border capital rebalancing and increased foreign exchange hedging main lines remain unchanged. The mid - term logic of the current market may continue, and the short - term focus is on the progress of China - US trade talks, Trump's tariff legal opinion, other countries' trade agreement progress, and the performance of the US May CPI [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 US Dollar Index Core Logic - Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly between 98.5 and 99.5. The supporting factors were the resilient fundamentals and potential new trade agreements, but the weak rebound reflected the unchanged mid - term cross - border capital rebalancing and increased foreign exchange hedging [3]. - The mid - term logic of the market may continue, and the short - term focus is on the progress of China - US trade talks, Trump's tariff legal opinion, other countries' trade agreement progress, and the US May CPI. New trade agreements are beneficial for the upward repair of the US dollar index, and the legal opinion on Trump's tariffs may have limited impact. Inflation trends in the US May CPI will also affect the US dollar index [3]. 3.2 Economic Index Trends - The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has declined [5]. - The difference between the US and European Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes has declined [7]. - The long - term inflation expectation in the US remains at a certain level [7]. 3.3 Interest Rate and Volatility Index Trends - The difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe fluctuated narrowly and then basically remained at the previous level [8]. - The VIX index oscillated at a low level [8]. 3.4 Position and Ratio Trends - CFTC net positions show that the US dollar maintains a net negative position [11]. - The gold - to - copper ratio has declined [13]. 3.5 Commodity Price Trends - Copper prices have oscillated upwards [15]. - Crude oil prices have risen from the bottom [15]. 3.6 Spread and Technical Indicator Trends - The US - Germany spread first declined and then rose with the US Treasury yield, and the US dollar index oscillated narrowly [19]. - The US dollar index runs below the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is not oversold [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the demand for rebar has seasonally weakened, but the year - on - year decline is not obvious. EAFs are generally in the red, and BF profits have also weakened. Rebar production has dropped significantly, and inventory has been significantly reduced. In the case of plates, production has increased, supply has further recovered, and apparent consumption has also entered a seasonally weakening phase. Inventory has slightly increased at a low level, and the pressure is acceptable. The supply - demand of cold - rolled and medium - heavy plates remains high. The "rush to export" still provides some support for manufacturing demand. However, based on terminal research feedback, there is an expectation of a weakening in the total direct and indirect steel exports. Pessimistic sentiment still dominates. The pressure of off - season inventory is driving a return to fundamentals, and black prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 2.2903 million tons (-196,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.91% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2092 million tons (-60,100 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 2.73% [1]. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons (-316,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.46% [1]. Supply - Rebar production is 2.1846 million tons (-70,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2875 million tons (+92,000 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.88% [1]. - The production of the five major steel products is 8.8038 million tons (-4,700 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.05% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory is 5.7048 million tons (-105,700 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.82% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.4064 million tons (+78,300 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.35% [1]. - The inventory of the five major steel products is 13.6381 million tons (-17,900 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.13% [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating". Specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [7] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [11] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: Oscillating weakly [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - positive sentiment and coking coal news catalyzed a strong rebound after the previous price decline. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply - demand is in a tight balance, leading to more optimistic voices in the market. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are about to enter the off - season, and the "rush to export" is also under - performing, with limited demand growth. So the rebound height is still limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy guidance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Supply: Overseas incremental release is lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline in cumulative shipments throughout the year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down, reducing the annual increment [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased, expected to remain at a high level in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small, and the real supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - Coking Coal - Supply: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase, currently, most coal mines in the production area are operating normally, and the coking coal output remains high. The news of Mongolia's export tax rate change is unconfirmed, and the port clearance continues at a high level, so the overall supply is still loose [3]. - Demand: Coke production remains high but is expected to decline due to increased inventory pressure and shrinking coking profits. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, increasing the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal. Overall, the coking coal supply - demand remains loose, and the price lacks upward momentum [3]. - Coke: Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production and the approaching off - season of steel consumption. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices and weakening demand, the coke price is expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Alloys - Silicomanganese: The market sentiment is cautious. The cost of manganese ore is under pressure as the south32 Australian ore is arriving at the port this week. The domestic market has not reacted significantly to Gabon's ban on manganese ore exports starting in 2029. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream is in the off - season with a strong willingness to destock. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the cost may still have a negative impact. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [14]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, the demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. - Supply: There are both cold - repair and restart plans, and the supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory is accumulating, and the mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts of Hubei manufacturers [5]. Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. - Demand: The heavy - soda demand is expected to be mainly for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting may not be sustainable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [5].

Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: US economic data in May, including ADP employment growth, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI, were below expectations and previous values. The OECD cut the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" outlook. However, consumer confidence improved after the tariff truce, with increased spending intentions and lower inflation expectations [5]. - Domestic macro: Amid the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI showed resilience. China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than expected. From January to April, industrial enterprise profits were 21170.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. The May manufacturing PMI rebounded due to trade friction easing and policy support [5]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, Trump's tariffs won't solve the US deficit problem. In China, stable - growth policies focus on existing resources. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, while stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Financial markets**: Index futures showed different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.25%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%. Interest rates, foreign exchange, and other financial indicators also had their respective fluctuations [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: Most commodities showed varying degrees of price changes. Alumina had a significant daily decline of 3.92%, while gold had a daily increase of 0.17%. Different sectors such as shipping, precious metals, and energy had their own trends [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.95% daily, and COMEX gold increased by 0.61% daily. Various overseas commodities in energy, precious metals, and agriculture also had different performance [2]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Overseas**: US economic data was weak in May, but consumer confidence improved. The OECD cut the global and US growth forecasts, and the Fed warned of economic uncertainties [5]. - **Domestic**: Manufacturing showed resilience under policies. May's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year from January to April [5]. 3. Asset Views - **Overall**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [5]. - **Domestic**: Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven stocks [5]. 4. Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, stagflation trading cools down; in China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [7]. - **Financial**: Stock index futures have rising gaming sentiment but also concerns; index options have a slightly warm sentiment; treasury bond futures may be affected by capital and policy expectations [7]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver may adjust short - term due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The shipping market's sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the loading rate increase in June [7]. - **Black building materials**: Coal and coke supply contraction expectations increase, and black prices generally rebound, but different varieties have different trends [7]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: De - stocking slows down, and non - ferrous metals maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Demand growth is lower than expected, and the sector's performance is weak, with different trends for each variety [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have a positive impact on cotton prices, and different agricultural products have their own market situations [9].

研究员: | 会典 | 陶存辉 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 从业资格号:F03100815 | 从业资格号:F03144159 | | 投资咨询号:Z0021807 | 投资咨询号:Z0022199 | 张真 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021418 | | 华北企业库存:万 | 华东企业库存:万 | 华中企业库存:万 | 华南企业库存:万 | 西南企业库存:万 | 东北企业库存:万 | 西北企业库存:万 | 全国企业库存:万 | 浮法玻璃日熔:万 | | 周庚产量:万盘箱 周庚装需：万重箱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 重箱 | 重組 | 重箱 | 重箱 | 重複 | 重箱 | 直相 | 直相 | 暁 | | | | 2025-06-06 | 1005. 056 | 1593. 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - Protein meal: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - Corn and starch: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - Pigs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - Natural rubber: Expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - Synthetic rubber: BR market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - Cotton: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - Sugar: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - Logs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides views on the supply and demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product. Overall, the market for most agricultural products is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with some products showing weakening trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and fats**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in May 2025 is 1.74 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.07%. Due to technical buying, US soybean prices rose on Wednesday, and the three major domestic oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - **Protein meal**: International soybean trade premiums and discounts are in a state of shock, and the net long position of CFTC has increased month-on-month. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices continue to decline, and soybean imports are expected to increase month-on-month. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - **Corn and starch**: The domestic corn market is stable with a slight weakness, and port traders continue to wait and see. In the medium term, the tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing while the demand is weak, and pig prices are running weakly. In the short term, the pressure on farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs is increasing, and the proportion of large pigs sold is increasing. In the long term, the sow production capacity is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - **Natural rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material prices are dragged down by the futures market. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the finished product inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. The market is expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The price of butadiene has stabilized, and the market is at a historical low. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral, and the reduction of production by some private enterprises may help relieve the pressure on social inventory. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to consumption. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase year-on-year, and the yield may be high. The demand side shows that cotton consumption is relatively rigid, but it has gradually weakened seasonally in June. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The expected supply and demand in the next season are loose, and sugar prices are running weakly. The international market is optimistic about the sugar production in Brazil in the new season, and other major producing countries also have production increase expectations. The domestic market shows high sales and consumption rates and a decrease in industrial inventory. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it is mainly in a range-bound operation. The supply side shows a continuous decline in warehouse receipts and positive news from strikes and maintenance. The demand side is in a seasonal off-season, and there is no stockpiling action. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - **Logs**: The spot market is weak, and the futures market is declining. The supply and demand in the log market have weakened in June, and the short-term arrival pressure continues. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the variety data monitoring for oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the given text.

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