Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that although the rumored news of investigating over - production in the coal industry is expected to have a limited impact, it will strengthen the market sentiment, making the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall. The recent coal price is driven by peak - season demand for a weak rebound, but the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market in the domestic coal industry has continued to ferment. On July 22, it was rumored that the National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a coal mine production situation verification in 8 key coal - producing provinces (regions), mainly checking for over - production. Mines with annual or monthly production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity will be ordered to suspend production for rectification. As of the time of publication, the notice was not found on the official website of the National Energy Administration [2]. Recent Coal Price Operation Logic - In 2025, from January to June, the national cumulative raw coal production was 240,456 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The coal price was weak, with the price of thermal coal at northern ports dropping from 770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 617 yuan/ton, a drop of 20%. Recently, the coal market sentiment is strong, and the high - temperature cooling demand in summer has increased daily consumption, driving a weak rebound in prices. However, the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3]. Impact of Over - production Check News - Even though the impact of the over - production check news is expected to be limited, it will strengthen the market sentiment. Given that low - calorie coal has fallen below the cost line and there is a structural shortage of high - quality coal, the supply contraction expectation will make the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall [4]. Policy Implementation Difficulties - In the previous round of supply - side reform, the elimination of backward coal mine production capacity had achieved obvious results. The current mines mostly meet safety and environmental requirements, so the effect of anti - involution and over - production checks on reducing production cannot be compared with that of supply - side reform. Also, the coal industry accounts for a large proportion of the economy in key coal - producing provinces, so over - production checks may conflict with local economic growth goals [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating upward with a positive bias"; for stock index options is "oscillating"; for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a cautious bias" [6][7][8] Core Viewpoints - The market continues the pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Stock index futures saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach a new high, with sector rotation and potential for change based on policy and commodity sentiment. Stock index options had increased trading volume due to high intraday volatility, and a bullish sentiment. Treasury bond futures were affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with a weak performance and more short - term negative factors, especially for the long - end [1][2][6] Summary by Directory Market Views Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high. The basis, spread, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed. The market was bullish, with the CSI Dividend Index rising 1.65%, and sectors like coal and building materials leading. The trading volume was close to 2 trillion, and there were over a hundred limit - up stocks. Potential change points are the July Politburo meeting and the commodity sentiment. The recommended operation is to hold IM [6] Stock Index Options - High intraday volatility drove short - term trading. The trading volume was 7.028 billion yuan, up 30.20% from the previous day. Bullish sentiment was strong, and the recommended operations are bull spreads and covered calls [6] Treasury Bond Futures - The stock - bond seesaw continued. The trading volume, positions, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The bond market was weak due to risk preference and the strong stock market. The money market loosened, but it didn't boost the bond market. The long - end was more affected, and recommended strategies are trend trading with caution, short - hedging at low basis, basis widening, and curve steepening [7][8] Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's one - year and five - year loan prime rates remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. China's June全社会用电量 annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [10] Important Information and News Tracking - Bond: Foreign investment in RMB bonds has increased, with the total amount exceeding 600 billion US dollars. Foreign investment in domestic stocks has also improved, with a net increase of 10.1 billion US dollars in the first half of the year and 18.8 billion US dollars in May and June [10] - Current Account: China's current account surplus has increased steadily this year, and the non - reserve financial account shows a deficit, achieving a self - balanced international payment pattern. From January to May, equity - based direct investment inflows were 31.1 billion US dollars, up 16% year - on - year, and securities investment inflows were about 33 billion US dollars [11] - Reform: Shenzhen is expected to have a series of reform results this year, including Hong Kong - listed Greater Bay Area enterprises returning to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [11] Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report separately lists data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data content is not fully summarized here due to space limitations. The data mainly includes contract basis, spread, trading volume, and positions [12][16][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The resonance of concerns about the Fed's independence and tariffs has driven the upward movement of precious metals. The last deadline of August 1st for the US to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and the uncertainty of US - EU trade negotiations, along with the potential damage to the Fed's independence, have led to a surge in precious metal prices. Gold broke through $3400 per ounce on Tuesday night, and silver exceeded its previous high of $39.06 per ounce [2][4]. - In the short - term, investors are focusing on the next Fed resolution. If economic risks intensify, the expectation of an early interest rate cut may support gold. In the long - term, due to the third international public goods crisis since the Pax Britannica, with risks in tariffs, geopolitics, and the monetary system in 2025 echoing those of the last century, and the Fed's independence being damaged, gold is favored. For silver, domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity, and investment demand is expected to drive the further repair of its valuation [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that the Trump administration is more concerned about the quality of trade agreements than their timing. August 1st is the last deadline for countries to reach a trade agreement with the US, or they will face high tariffs [3]. - China's bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange recorded a surplus for two consecutive months in June, with the surplus expanding to $25.4 billion, the highest in nine months, supported by surpluses in goods trade and securities investment settlement and sales of foreign exchange. The current truce in the Sino - US trade war and China's good foreign trade performance are conducive to maintaining the balance of settlement and sales of foreign exchange [3]. - EU diplomats said that as the prospect of reaching an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fades, the EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US [3]. - US President Trump and China discussed the possibility of a summit between the two heads of state during Trump's visit to Asia later this year [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there is no sign that Powell should resign now, but if he wants to leave early, he can do so [3][4]. Price Logic - The breakthrough of precious metal prices is mainly due to the August 1st deadline for the US to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and the uncertainty of US - EU trade negotiations. The statement of Treasury Secretary Bessent about Powell's possible early departure and the call for a review of the Fed's non - monetary policy activities, along with internal differences within the Fed and accusations against Powell, have damaged the Fed's independence and intensified the risk - aversion sentiment [4][8]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real estate data, the Fed's interest rate expectations, and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [36, 45] [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3][7] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the macro - economic situation, both overseas and domestic, and provides short - term judgments on various futures products. Overseas, the fundamentals are relatively stable, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies and Fed policy. Domestically, the economy shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy support. For assets, there are structural opportunities in the domestic market, and long - term weak dollar trend is expected overseas [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas fundamentals are relatively stable. The new Fed chairman's nomination may affect the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US tariff policies are expected to be implemented in early August. The US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data [7] - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 economic data showed resilience, with GDP and export growth exceeding market expectations. High - frequency data indicates an improvement in the investment side. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies. Current growth - stabilizing policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [7] - **Asset View**: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in Q4. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper is recommended [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for the "anti - involution" policy are difficult to be falsified, but there is a lack of incremental funds, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate the market. Option liquidity continues to deteriorate, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen. Attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market expectations continue to improve, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8] - **Iron Ore**: Port arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories remained stable. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [8] - **Coke**: A second round of price increases is approaching, and the market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market was pulled up by macro - stimuli, and the coking coal futures price exceeded 1,000 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sector performed strongly, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [8] - **Manganese Silicon**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [8] - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to heat up, and spot prices start to follow. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on spot sales [8] - **Soda Ash**: Concerns about aging facilities are rising, and the spot and futures markets are rising in tandem. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on soda ash inventories [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The implementation time of US tariffs on copper may be advanced, and the Shanghai copper price is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish stance, and domestic demand recovery [8] - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse receipts registration needs to be observed, and the alumina market is expected to decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and excessive electrolytic aluminum复产 [8] - **Aluminum**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [8] - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black sector boosted the zinc price, and short - selling opportunities are recommended. The market is expected to decline, with attention on macro - risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8] - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventories are accumulating. The lead price is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8] - **Nickel**: The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse has been opened, and the nickel price is expected to decline in the long - term. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply shortages [8] - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price is weak, and the stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile, with attention on Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [8] - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price has strong bottom support. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8] - **Industrial Silicon**: The silicon price has rebounded under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are being hyped, and the lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile, with attention on insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8] 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10] - **LPG**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price valuation has entered a severely overvalued stage, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on unexpected demand [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is under great downward pressure, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to decline following crude oil, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has continued to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10] - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is unbalanced, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis has stabilized, and devices are restarting. The market is expected to rise, with attention on ethylene glycol inventories [10] - **PX**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the PX market is expected to be volatile, with attention on crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10] - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened, and the cost of PX is strong. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on polyester production [10] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis has declined, and processing fees have rebounded. The market is expected to rise, with attention on terminal textile and clothing exports [10] - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on future bottle - chip production [10] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Plastic**: Spot support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Styrene**: There is no clear driving force, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the PVC market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [10] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked, and the caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [10] 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil continues to lead the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. The market is expected to rise, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10] - **Protein Meal**: After China and Australia signed a trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal market declined slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [10] - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supplies are locally tight, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on insufficient demand, macro - factors, and weather [10] - **Pigs**: Pig supplies are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10] - **Rubber**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounded after a decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on significant crude oil price fluctuations [10] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro - factors, and the pulp price is in a stalemate. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [10] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has increased with increased positions, and the 14,000 - yuan mark is being tested. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on demand and production [10] - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on abnormal weather [10] - **Logs**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile. The market is expected to decline, with attention on shipping and delivery volumes [10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-23 反内卷进一步发酵，新能源金属价格走势偏 强 新能源观点：反内卷进⼀步发酵，新能源⾦属价格⾛势偏强 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，国内锂供应也出现扰动，市场情绪偏乐观，新能源金 属价格走势趋强。中短期来看，供应端收缩预期强化，新能源金属价 格偏强势，后续密切留意产业链动向，在乐观情绪没有消退前以谨慎 偏多思路对待，谨慎的投资者可继续考虑用期权押注多晶硅和碳酸锂 进一步潜在上涨机会；同时，也提醒下，需谨防政策预期短期无法兑 现但现实供需偏弱背景下，新能源金属价格双边波动风险。 ⼯业硅观点："反内卷"情绪⾼涨，硅价持续⾛⾼。 多晶硅观点：反内卷政策延续发酵，多晶硅价格延续抬升。 碳酸锂观点："反内卷"与供应扰动叠加，锂价短期偏强。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the black building materials industry are rated as "oscillating", with some showing "oscillating and strengthening" trends. Specific varieties and ratings include: steel (oscillating and strengthening), iron ore (oscillating and strengthening), scrap steel (oscillating), coke (oscillating and strengthening), coking coal (oscillating and strengthening), glass (oscillating), soda ash (oscillating), ferrosilicon (oscillating and strengthening), and ferromanganese (oscillating and strengthening) [8][9][12][13][15][16] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, both supply and demand sides of the black building materials industry have introduced stimulus policies. The Yajiang Hydropower Project has enhanced the expectation of infrastructure development, and there are news of over - production inspections in coal mines. The price of black building materials has continued to rise significantly. The mid - stream is actively replenishing stocks, resulting in a shortage of spot resources. Although the terminal demand has not reached the peak season for verification, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the prices will oscillate at a high level. The subsequent focus will be on policy implementation and the performance of terminal demand during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - Core logic: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, there are disturbances in the coal supply side, and the cost support is strong. The expectation of stable growth in ten key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has brought positive demand expectations. The macro - sentiment is warming up, speculative demand is released periodically, and the spot price is rising. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory began to accumulate; the supply of hot - rolled coils decreased while demand increased, and inventory started to decline; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory decreased slightly. The inventory is at a relatively low level in history, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel in the off - season are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials under the background of high hot metal production, positive news keeps emerging, and the macro - sentiment continues to warm up. The futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term [8] Iron Ore - Core logic: Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, which is in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has slightly increased, and the hot metal output of steel enterprises has rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory of iron ore has remained stable, the berthing volume has decreased, the steel mill inventory has slightly increased, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. Recently, there have been many positive news, the market sentiment is good, and with a good fundamental situation, the futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply is stable. There is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [2][8] Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel is tight this week as the arrival volume has decreased. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills has slightly decreased, but the profit of electric furnaces has improved, which may drive the resumption of production of electric furnaces. The hot metal output of blast furnaces has slightly increased, the price of iron ore has risen significantly, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steel mills has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long and short processes has rebounded. The inventory of steel mills has slightly accumulated. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and recently, driven by the macro - sentiment, the black plate has oscillated upwards, and the spot price of scrap steel has followed the upward trend. - Outlook: The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and resources are tight. It is expected that the price will follow the trend of the plate [9] Coke - Core logic: Yesterday, coke producers in the production areas initiated the second round of price increases for coke. Affected by the rumor of coal mine over - production inspections, the market sentiment was high, and the main coke contract hit the daily limit. On the supply side, although the first - round price increase was implemented last week, the continuous sharp rise in coal prices has compressed the profit margin of coke enterprises, and coke production is under pressure. On the demand side, the high hot metal output supports rigid demand, steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. At the same time, the futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies, resulting in a continuous decline in the coke inventory of coke enterprises. - Outlook: The demand for coke is strong, the cost support is strong, and the market sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [12] Coking Coal - Core logic: Yesterday, the news of coal mine over - production inspections spread in the market, triggering expectations of supply - side changes. Some coal mines in the main production areas that were previously shut down due to maintenance or accidents are gradually resuming production, but there are still coal mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground problems, and domestic coal supply is still subject to disturbances. The China - Mongolia port has fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. The demand for coking coal is strong, downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and the inventory of some coal types is in short supply, and the coal mine inventory is continuously decreasing. - Outlook: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventory, the spot market is generally strong, and with the warming market sentiment, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [3][11][12] Glass - Core logic: The demand for glass in the off - season is declining, and the demand for deep - processing products has continued to weaken month - on - month. This week, downstream enterprises generally replenished stocks at the beginning of the month, and the production and sales were good, but the sustainability remains to be observed. After the futures price rises, it may stimulate speculative demand. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but the market sentiment is highly volatile. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase today, downstream and mid - stream enterprises continue to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policy continues to exceed expectations, the downstream expectation may improve, and there may be a wave of inventory - replenishing price increases. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed, and the glass market is expected to oscillate [13] Soda Ash - Core logic: Affected by the continuous increase in the "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures price has risen, driving the spot price to follow the upward trend. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although some soda ash plants are under maintenance today and the overall output has decreased, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has recovered, but the overall downstream demand is still poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. There are planned maintenance activities in July, and supported by the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote production capacity reduction [15] Ferromanganese - Core logic: After the release of the energy bureau's over - production inspection document, the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, and the bullish sentiment in the black market has risen again. The ferromanganese futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has been further raised. On the cost side, coke has entered the price - increase cycle, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese. The market sentiment is positive, port miners are actively supporting prices, and the price of manganese ore is firm. On the supply side, the profitability of manufacturers has improved, the driving force for resumption of production has increased, and the daily output of ferromanganese has continued to rise for 8 weeks. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of ferromanganese are not significant at present. Recently, the market bullish sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the main production areas [16] Ferrosilicon - Core logic: After the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, the valuation of carbon elements has increased, strengthening the cost support expectation for ferrosilicon. The futures price of ferrosilicon has risen significantly, and the spot price has been further raised. On the supply side, although the industry profit has been repaired recently, the pace of resumption of production of manufacturers is slow, but there is room for an increase in the industry's operating rate in the future. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, the trading activity has increased, magnesium producers are actively supporting prices, and the price of magnesium ingots has been raised. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. Recently, the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ferrosilicon manufacturers [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: Oscillation [5] - Protein meal: Oscillation [6] - Corn/starch: Oscillation [6] - Pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Natural rubber: Oscillation [8] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillation [10] - Cotton: Oscillation [11] - Sugar: Oscillation [12] - Pulp: Oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - Logs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. Yesterday, rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market due to the good growth of US soybeans. The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments in protein meal. Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Synthetic rubber prices continue to rise following the overall commodity trend. Pulp investment should follow the macro trend and go long. Low inventory supports cotton prices, while increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: US soybeans are growing well, and rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market yesterday. - **Industry Information**: As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. - **Logic**: US soybeans may decline due to expected rainfall, and domestic oils and fats oscillated lower yesterday. The macro environment shows a weakening US dollar and stable crude oil prices. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is still at a relatively high level, and the market expects a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is expected to increase, and domestic soybean oil inventories are rising. Palm oil production is in the increasing season, with expected inventory accumulation. Rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly decreasing. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, the pressure of correction has increased, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support below [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, 2025, the international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, with a risk of low precipitation in the next 15 days. The US soybean export outlook is worrying, but Brazilian soybean premiums are rising. Domestically, the spot price follows the futures, but the basis weakens slightly. Soybean arrivals increase, and the refinery operating rate rises, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. In the long term, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the basis is expected to be weak. Oil refineries can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices. Hold long positions at 2900 [6]. 3.1.3 Corn - **View**: Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main contract closing price increased by 0.09%. - **Logic**: As the trade sector actively sells grain, the supply in ports and deep - processing industries decreases. It is expected that the supply of old crops will tighten further from July to August, and prices may rebound in some areas. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market has digested the bullish factors. Recently, due to weather and previous overselling, spot prices have rebounded. New - season corn production is normal, and there is an expectation of increased supply and decreased prices in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking, and prices may rebound. After the new - crop listing, there is a downward driving force [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 0.35%, and the futures closing price increased by 0.10%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of groups of pigs is accelerating, and farmers still have the sentiment to fatten pigs. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity is still high, but the government is guiding the industry to adjust. The demand is not strong, and there is still sentiment for secondary fattening among farmers. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply - side adjustment policy has a positive impact on the market, but the supply pressure in the third quarter remains. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products showed different changes on July 22. - **Logic**: The commodity market is strong, and the bullish sentiment continues. Natural rubber follows the upward trend, and its fundamentals are currently stable. On the supply side, Asian production areas are affected by the rainy season, and the supply is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of some tire enterprises has recovered, and the demand is stable. In the third quarter, there may be de - stocking transactions, and rubber prices may rise further if the macro sentiment remains positive. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall following the overall commodity sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market continues to rise following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes. - **Logic**: The market is mainly driven by the macro environment. In terms of fundamentals, there are no major changes. The price of butadiene has been oscillating strongly, and downstream demand is good, with no obvious supply pressure. The short - term price center may rise further. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in production facilities [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices. - **Industry Information**: As of July 22, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed changes. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the supply of cotton is expected to be loose. It is currently the off - season for downstream demand, and enterprises' operating rates are declining, with a slight increase in finished - product inventory. However, the de - stocking speed of cotton is fast, and the supply is tight before the new - crop listing. In the short term, low inventory supports prices, but the risk of a pull - back is increasing. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure after the new - crop listing. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, but the upward resistance is increasing [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, with production increases expected in major producing countries. Domestic sales are fast, and industrial inventories are decreasing. However, imports have been increasing since May, and Brazil is entering the peak production and export period. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, there is a lack of bullish factors, and the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The investment should follow the macro trend and go long. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products showed different changes. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have been rising recently, mainly driven by the macro environment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward driving force comes from the macro aspect. On the supply side, the US dollar price is falling, and overseas pulp mill inventories are high. On the demand side, downstream paper production and sales are increasing, but the price performance reflects poor market expectations. In the short term, the macro environment drives the price up, and the valuation support weakens after the rebound. In the medium term, there is pressure from high imports, and the supply is expected to be abundant. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate strongly due to a favorable macro environment and relatively low valuation [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment. - **Logic**: The log market has filled the previous gap and is oscillating around 840. Technically, it maintains an upward trend. Fundamentally, port inventory has decreased, but the short - term circulation pressure of deliverable goods has increased, and the ability of processing plants to receive goods has decreased. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium term. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand this year is stable. The new foreign quotation has increased, which reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at low prices. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of high - price CFR and the change in the volume of deliverable goods. Speculators are advised to wait and see, and industrial players can participate in hedging according to their costs [15][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - This section mainly lists various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards - **Bullish**: Expected increase greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation with a bullish bias**: Expected increase between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation**: Expected increase or decrease within plus or minus 1 standard deviation. - **Oscillation with a bearish bias**: Expected decrease between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Bearish**: Expected decrease greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Time Period**: Next 2 - 12 weeks. - **Standard Deviation**: 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [175]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows mixed trends in different routes and indicators. For example, some routes' capacity has decreased while others have increased, and there are also fluctuations in container volumes and port throughput [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Capacity - In the 31st week (planned capacity as of August 3rd), the capacity of the China - US West route decreased by 5.2% week - on - week, with a capacity of 326,000 TEU and a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The capacity of the China - US East route increased by 12.9% week - on - week, with a capacity of 236,000 TEU and a year - on - year increase of 41.8%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route decreased by 5.4% week - on - week and increased by 36.9% year - on - year. The capacity of the China - Europe route decreased by 13.9% week - on - week and 9.4% year - on - year, and the capacity of the Mediterranean route decreased by 8.5% week - on - week at a high level but increased by 29.3% year - on - year [2]. Container Volume Data of Cargo - Laden Containers Sent to the US - As of July 21st, the weekly shipped cargo - laden container volume from China to the US was 495,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 12.5%, and the number of ships was 62, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%. The recent shipping capacity scale has been fluctuating downward [2]. US Port Arrival Volume Data - In the week of July 17th, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the US was 522,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 17.8%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 190,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 18%, and the weekly arrival volume from Vietnam was 62,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 16.6% [3]. Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of July 20th, the container throughput of Chinese ports increased by 2.6% week - on - week, reaching 6.642 million TEU/week [3]. Vizion Booking Data - In the week from July 7th to 13th, the overall booking volume of the US and the booking volume of imported goods from China continued to decline week - on - week. The overall booking volume of the US was 345,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 7.6% with the decline rate widening by 7 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The booking volume from China was 124,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year sharp decrease of 30.1% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 21, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures gained, with metals and energy & chemicals sectors leading the gains [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and glass, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), cotton, and Chinese jujube [9][10][11]. - The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission will visit China and hold the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting; the July LPR quotation shows both 5 - year and 1 - year rates remain unchanged [2][32]. - As of mid - July this year, there have been 52 IPOs in Hong Kong, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with a total funds raised of HK$124 billion, a year - on - year rise of 590%, and the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.3% cumulatively since the beginning of this year [33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 21, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and most commodity futures gained. The top gainers were aluminium oxide (8.4% increase, 5.3% month - on - month increase in positions), coking coal (7.9% increase, 5.1% month - on - month decrease in positions), and glass (7.1% increase, 18.3% month - on - month decrease in positions). The top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (2.4% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month decrease in positions), cotton (0.8% decrease, 3.7% month - on - month decrease in positions), and Chinese jujube (0.7% decrease, 2.9% month - on - month increase in positions) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Aluminum Oxide - On July 21, aluminum oxide increased by 8.4% to 3386 yuan/ton. Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment drove up the futures. Operating capacity is gradually recovering, and inventories are accumulating. The impact of the new non - ferrous industry growth - stabilizing plan on the supply of the surplus aluminium oxide sector remains to be seen. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On July 21, coking coal increased by 7.9% to 1006 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mine recovery is slow, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually picking up. With strong rigid demand and market sentiment, coking coal prices are prone to rise in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [20][21][22]. 1.2.3 Glass - On July 21, glass increased by 7.1% to 1173 yuan/ton. Demand is marginally weakening, supply pressure is expected to rise, and fundamentals are weak. With low mid - stream inventories, there is a risk of speculative pull on prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The President of the European Council Carlos Moedas and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting. The July LPR quotation shows that the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR is 3%, both unchanged from last month [32]. 2.2 Industry News - As of mid - July this year, there have been 52 IPOs in Hong Kong, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with a total funds raised of HK$124 billion, a year - on - year rise of 590%, ranking first globally temporarily. The Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.3% cumulatively since the beginning of this year. The SAR government will continue to improve the listing system, promote stock market liquidity, and attract more high - quality enterprises to list in Hong Kong [33].