Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 30th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of July 27, 2025 [2][4]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 New Special Bonds - As of July 27, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 59.0%. This week, 205.4 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 44 billion yuan. In July, a total of 433.7 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued [4]. 3.2 New General Bonds - As of July 27, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 64.7%. This week, 23.3 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4 billion yuan. In July, a total of 65.4 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued [4][7][9]. 3.3 Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 292.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 139.5 billion yuan. As of July 27, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 59.8% [11]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 1.07 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 4.74 billion yuan. As of July 27, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.2% [16][18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 303.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 92 billion yuan. As of July 27, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 58.4% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment have jointly pushed up the aluminum oxide market. In the short term, aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to the rate and scale of warehouse receipt recovery and new supply disruptions in the future [4][5][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory Event Review - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment pushed up the aluminum oxide market. The 07 contract delivery led to a significant outflow of warehouse receipts, leaving only over 6kt of visible warehouse receipts on the exchange, raising squeeze concerns. The July 18th press conference of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned two statements affecting aluminum oxide, boosting market sentiment. Whether the new growth - stabilization plan for the non - ferrous metals industry will adjust the supply side of the alumina industry remains to be observed [4][5] Market Outlook - Bauxite inventory accumulates weekly with weak prices. Smelters have sufficient low - cost ore sources, and corporate profits have recovered. Alumina companies' operating capacity has been increasing steadily since late May, reaching 93.85mn t. In June, net exports were 69.7k t, the lowest in nearly a year. The demand side is stable, with the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reaching 44.204mn t. The upstream - downstream balance coefficient is 2.12, indicating oversupply. Although inventory data from different sources diverge, both show an inventory accumulation trend, but the absolute inventory level is relatively low [7] - After arbitrage opportunities opened, there was an expectation for new warehouse receipt registration. After the 07 contract delivery, the cancellation of old warehouse receipts led to a tight supply of warehouse receipts. In the short term, sufficient low - cost ore, the recovery of corporate operating capacity, and social inventory alleviated supply concerns. Aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong in the short term. Upstream companies can hedge at high prices, institutions can use straddle option strategies, and those with the means can engage in spot - futures arbitrage [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) consists of 50 constituent stocks with notable investment scarcity, and foreign investors hold strong pricing power, influencing the AH premium. The index is affected by factors such as U.S. bond yields, credit spreads, and market liquidity [9][11]. - The index shows different correlations and trends with various factors, including a negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, a similar trend with Moutai Basket and Ning Portfolio, a closer alignment with A - share healthcare indices, and better performance when credit spreads widen [101][114][126]. - The trading behavior of foreign capital impacts the AH premium from aspects such as substitution, risk appetite, sentiment, and market liquidity [179][188]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction - **Three Major Healthcare Sector Indices in Hong Kong Stocks**: There are three major industry indices in the Hong Kong healthcare sector: the HS Healthcare Index (68 constituents), the HS Biotechnology Index (50 constituents), and the HS Innovative Drug Index (37 constituents). The first two have high long - term correlation, and the Biotech Index can more effectively track the leading Hong Kong healthcare stocks due to its quarterly rebalancing [21][25]. - **Focus on Drugs and Medical Devices**: Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks have scarcity as many innovative biotech companies are listed there before the STAR Market. The Biotech Index focuses on innovative drugs, medical devices, and CXO, different from A - share listed pharmaceutical enterprises [26][33]. - **The Low Proportion of AH Shares**: By April 2025, 13 AH shares in the index accounted for 17% - 20% of the index weight. Except for WuXi AppTec, the AH premium of other AH shares is generally around 1.5 - 2.0, and it may climb above 2.0 during market declines [38][42]. 3.2 Pricing Power - **Capital Structure**: Foreign and Hong Kong capital hold a dominant position (61% - 80%) in the Hang Seng Biotech Index. Since 2023, foreign capital has been reducing holdings, leading to a passive increase in the proportion of Southbound Stock Connect. By the end of March 2025, domestic and Chinese - funded institutions' investment proportion rose to 30% [51][55]. - **Proportion of Foreign Capital's Holdings**: Foreign capital holds controlling stakes in most individual stocks in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, mainly from Europe and the United States. In 2024, U.S. - based foreign capital rapidly reduced its holdings, and some equity was transferred to the Qatar Investment Authority [60][64]. - **Belonging of Pricing Power**: From 2021 to 2025, foreign institutional investors had strong pricing power over pharmaceutical stocks, with more than half of the individual stocks showing a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.5 between their stock prices and the proportion of foreign holdings. Based on foreign ownership fluctuations for market timing has a long - term alpha effect [75][86]. 3.3 Sector Rotations - **The Index is Negatively Correltated with the U.S. Treasury Yield**: The HS Biotech Index has a significant negative correlation (- 0.84) with the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield. Since 2024, its correlation with long - term Chinese bond yields has strengthened [95][101]. - **The Index Moves in Tandem with Moutai Basket and Ning Portofolio**: The Hang Seng Biotech Index, Moutai Basket, and Ning Portfolio are all dominated by foreign capital, tied to U.S. Treasury yields. They peaked simultaneously in 2021, with different maximum drawdowns [108][114]. - **The Index Tracks A - Share Healthcare Indices More Closely**: The HS Biotech Index shows stronger alignment with A - share healthcare indices and has diverged from U.S. biotech indices since 2024. After 2024, its trajectory is mainly driven by China's economic expectations [120][126]. - **The Index Paradoxically Outperforms When Credit Spreads Widen**: Credit spreads typically expand during macro - economic deterioration or industry profit headwinds. Widening spreads imply a higher probability of interest - rate cuts, boosting biotech valuations [133][139]. - **Hang Seng Sector Rotation Signals**: When the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield declines, the elasticity of Hong Kong's major broad - based indices is Biotech > HSTECH > HSI; in the interest - rate hike cycle, HSI and HSTECH have stronger excess returns. When the 10 - year CGB yield rises, it is suitable to overweight the Biotech Index [147][158]. 3.4 AH Premium - **AH Premium Rate: Negatively Correlated with the Index**: The average AH premium of 13 AH shares from September 2022 to March 2025 has a high negative correlation (- 0.90) with the index, which may be due to the high elasticity of biopharmaceutical stocks and the significant influence of foreign capital transactions [165][166]. - **AH Premium: The Trading Behavior of Foreign Capital**: The trading behavior of foreign capital affects the AH premium from four aspects: substitution (long - term deviation in AH premium after the launch of the Mainland - Hong Kong Stock Connect), risk appetite (higher U.S. Treasury yields lead to a higher AH premium), sentiment (negative correlation between warrant PCR ratio and AH premium), and market liquidity (lower Hong Kong stock liquidity leads to a higher AH premium) [174][179][188].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable. The improvement of US consumer demand depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The overall impact of upcoming US tariff policies may be lower than in April, but uncertainties remain [7]. - Domestic macro: As an important meeting approaches, the expectation of "anti - involution" policies has strengthened. Although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may focus on using existing policies, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [7]. - Asset views: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: Short - term weak recovery in commodity demand. US consumer purchase intentions are fluctuating at a low level, and price suppression persists. Improvement depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Follow the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. Tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties [7]. - Domestic: "Anti - involution" policy expectations have strengthened. Some industries have administrative production - cut expectations. Domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may use existing policies, with more incremental policies likely in the fourth quarter [7]. - Assets: Focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting policies. Policy - driven logic will be stronger in the second half of the year. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. The weak - dollar pattern will continue in the long - term. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is advisable [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Opportunities are spreading across sectors, but there is a lack of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock index options: Continue to hold bull spreads. Option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains under pressure. Key concerns are unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors are Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: The fundamentals are marginally improving, and cost support is strong. Key factors are the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Hot - metal production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. Key factors are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: The futures price has risen significantly, and the price - increase progress has accelerated. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" expectation has risen, and the futures price has continuously hit the daily limit. Key factors are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Inventory pressure is acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Manganese silicon: Supply - demand contradictions are acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Middle and downstream sectors are replenishing stocks simultaneously, and upstream inventory has significantly decreased. Key factor is spot sales. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply - demand changes are limited, and sentiment supports the price. Key factor is soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. Key factors are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: The futures sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is adjusting at a high level. Key factors are unexpected ore复产 and unexpected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: The sentiment boost has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Macro sentiment still exists, and the zinc price is fluctuating at a high level. Key factors are macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lead: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and the lead price is fluctuating. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely in the short - term. Key factors are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policy risks. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is fluctuating. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is slightly upward - trending. Key factors are the expectation of Wa State's复产 and demand improvement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lithium carbonate: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: It is under pressure at a high level. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and chemical demand is acceptable. Key factor is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is under pressure. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is weak during the power - generation peak season. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The futures price follows the crude - oil trend and is weakening. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Methanol: It is boosted by coal in the short - term. Key factors are macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, and export pull is less than expected. Key factors are export policies and capacity elimination. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. Key factors are coal - price trends and the inflection point of visible inventory accumulation. The short - term outlook is a volatile decline [10]. - PX: Sentiment disturbances are increasing, and fundamental drivers are weakening. Key factors are overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance schedules. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PTA: Major plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. Key factors are the implementation of unexpected major plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Short - fiber: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and the processing fee is compressed. Key factors are textile exports and downstream purchasing rhythms. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Bottle - chip: During the production - cut season, cost pricing is more important than supply - demand. Key factor is the later - stage bottle - chip production start - up. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Propylene: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PP: It is boosted by "anti - involution" but supply - demand is still under pressure. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Plastic: It is boosted by the macro - environment but the fundamental support is weak. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PVC: The sentiment has cooled. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Caustic soda: Cost support is strong, and the downward space is limited. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has weakened. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Protein meal: Market sentiment has subsided, and prices are falling. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Corn/starch: The spot price is stable, waiting for new guidance. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Live pigs: Sentiment - based trading has cooled, and the futures price has declined from a high level. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Rubber: There are炒作 themes, and the rubber price has risen rapidly in the afternoon. Key factors are production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Pulp: It is mainly driven by the macro - environment. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US - dollar - quoted price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Cotton: The main - contract position has decreased, and the upward momentum has weakened. Key factors are demand and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Sugar: Import volume is expected to increase, limiting the price rebound. Key factor is abnormal weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-29 消费趋弱，有色震荡承压 有⾊观点：消费趋弱，有⾊震荡承压 交易逻辑：美欧达成15%关税协议，但美国对等关税博弈仍在继续； 7月18日工信部提到十大行业稳增长，将推动重点行业着力调结构和 淘汰落后产能，整体来看，反内卷延伸到基本金属，供给收缩预期一 度提振有色，但美国关税预期反复对有色有压制。供需面来看，基本 金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看， 关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，但政策刺激预期及供应扰动 对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会， 逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月 底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会面临短时抛压，中长期来看， 基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期 过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪降温，锌价震荡偏弱。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market has been affected by numerous non - fundamental factors recently. As August approaches, fundamentals will become the dominant factor. It is advisable for investors to adopt a light - position hedging strategy. The overall futures prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate, and basis and inventory can be used as benchmarks for hedging [3]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors support prices, but there is supply pressure. The high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide short - term support. Oil prices will oscillate, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices fluctuate around 3600 yuan/ton. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and reduced demand. It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Although there are negative factors, the current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil** - Price: Overnight prices rose. - Main logic: The risk of increased US sanctions on Russian oil has increased. There is supply pressure from OPEC +'s production increase, but high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide support. - Outlook: The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure will balance each other, leading to price oscillation. Geopolitical risks should be watched [9]. - **Asphalt** - Price: The main futures contract closed at 3602 yuan/ton, with spot prices in different regions varying. - Main logic: OPEC +'s production increase will put pressure on the cracking spread. The accumulation of floating storage and supply pressure on raw materials will affect futures prices. Demand is not strong enough for a bull market. - Outlook: The absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 2879 yuan/ton. - Main logic: OPEC +'s possible over - production, falling natural gas prices, and reduced power generation demand will lead to increased supply and decreased demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 3588 yuan/ton. - Main logic: It follows crude oil prices. There are negative factors such as reduced shipping demand, but the low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil. - Outlook: It will follow the oscillation of crude oil prices [12]. - **PX** - Price: On July 28, CFR China Taiwan was 851 (- 23) dollars/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment led to price drops, but the increase in crude oil prices at night provided cost support. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 4845 (- 55) yuan/ton. - Main logic: Weak polyester yarn sales, cooling commodity sentiment, but cost support remains. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in early August [14]. - **Pure Benzene** - Price: On July 28, the 2603 contract closed at 6241 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The improvement in fundamentals was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: The market may enter an oscillation period, and attention should be paid to high - level statements and Fed data [15]. - **Styrene** - Price: On July 28, the East China spot price was 7340 (- 160) yuan/ton. - Main logic: There is a weakening expectation in supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to commodity sentiment [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - Price: On July 28, the DCE main contract 2509 closed at 4436 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and typhoon - induced inventory reduction. However, supply is expected to increase in August and September. - Outlook: Inventory may reach an inflection point [17][18]. - **Short - fiber** - Price: On July 28, the PF2509 contract closed at 6482 yuan/ton. - Main logic: Cooling sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees will remain stable, and prices will follow raw materials [18][19]. - **Bottle - chip** - Price: On July 28, the East China market price dropped to 6035 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of "anti - involution" sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees have support, and prices will follow raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol** - Price: On July 28, the Taicang spot price was 2385 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and the drag from coal prices. There is limited impact from policies, and the upper price limit is restricted by downstream feedback. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Urea** - Price: On July 22, the factory - warehouse and market low prices were 1780 (+ 20) and 1830 (+ 20) yuan/ton respectively. - Main logic: Strong supply and weak demand. Market sentiment temporarily boosts prices, but the fundamental support is limited. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the return to fundamentals [22]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 7300 (- 50) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand in the off - season. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [25]. - **PP** - Price: On July 28, the East China PP拉丝 price was 7100 (- 40) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of macro - level sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [26][27]. - **PL** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong low - end price was 6170 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The short - term decline in commodity sentiment and the influence of PP and methanol fluctuations. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [27]. - **PVC** - Price: On July 28, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 5150 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment and fundamental pressure, with an expected increase in production and cost. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy details [29]. - **Caustic Soda** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 2594 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment, low inventory in Shandong, and cost support. - Outlook: The downward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to policy orientation [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.8 with a change of 0.02, and PX having various inter - period spreads with corresponding changes [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 206 with a change of 41, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82180 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 340 with a change of 185 [33]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific content is not fully presented, it is expected to involve detailed monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc. [34][46][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Industry | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Volatile [5] | | Protein Meal | Volatile [5] | | Corn and Starch | Volatile [5] | | Live Pigs | Volatile [6] | | Natural Rubber | Volatile [7] | | Synthetic Rubber | Volatile [11] | | Cotton | Volatile [11] | | Sugar | Volatile [12] | | Pulp | Volatile, Slightly Bullish [14] | | Logs | Volatile, Slightly Bearish [16] | 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, finding that most are in a volatile state. Factors such as policy regulation, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment impact the market. For instance, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects its supply and demand expectations; the complex supply - demand situation in the oils and fats market leads to market fluctuations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of lower technical support [5]. - **Logic**: Uncertainty in export demand, good weather in production areas, and various supply - demand factors at home and abroad are in play. For example, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil, the increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory, and the increase in palm oil production season [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and it is expected to be volatile [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: As sentiment fades, both types of meal see reduced positions and price drops [5]. - **Logic**: Abundant precipitation and suitable temperature in US soybean production areas are conducive to high yields. Domestically, short - term soybean arrivals increase, while long - term supply may face shortages [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [5]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance [5]. - **Logic**: Supply is tightening, but downstream demand is weak. New - season corn production is normal, and imported corn supply is abundant [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price rebounds may occur, but there is a downward trend after new - crop listing [6]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: Emotional trading has cooled, and the futures price has fallen from its high [1][6]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is affected by industry guidance and farmer sentiment; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase; in the long - term, policies may lead to a supply inflection point. Demand is limited due to hot weather, and inventory pressure exists [1][6]. - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with a situation of "weak present, strong future." Anti - spread strategies can be considered [6]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and rubber prices have dropped significantly [7]. - **Logic**: The market decline is mainly due to regulatory impacts on leading varieties. Fundamentally, supply is affected by the rainy season, and demand is relatively stable [7]. - **Outlook**: The market will continue to trade based on the macro - environment, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price continues to fluctuate accordingly [11]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall market macro - environment, the raw material price is volatile, and the supply is relatively tight in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain a range - bound operation [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly spread is converging [11]. - **Logic**: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is at a low level. Low inventory supports prices, but the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile. Low inventory supports prices, but upward resistance increases, and the monthly spread may follow an anti - spread logic [11]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Attention should be paid to import conditions [12]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be abundant. In Brazil, the sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. In China, imports are increasing, which will put pressure on prices [13]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, prices are expected to decline; in the short - term, there are short - selling opportunities [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Anti - involution trading may resume, and attention should be paid to arbitrage hedging during the decline [14]. - **Logic**: The supply of hardwood pulp is excessive, and demand is weak in the short - term but may improve marginally in the future. There is a ceiling on price increases [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations follow the macro - environment, and futures prices are expected to rise with volatility [14]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Fundamental changes are limited, and it is short - term dominated by macro - expectations [16]. - **Logic**: It follows the "anti - involution" macro - policy. Supply is affected by shipping rhythms, and demand is stable with no obvious peak or off - season [16]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile and slightly bearish in the short - term. Pay attention to changes in effective deliverable quantities of the 09 contract [16][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating [9] Core Views of the Report - Exchange position limits and repeated supply - side expectations have led to significant fluctuations in new - energy metals. For lithium in Jiangxi, without official confirmation of production cuts, caution is needed when using futures to bet on long or short positions. Options can be used to cautiously bet on potential lithium price increases. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, if there is no substantial contraction on the supply - side or significant improvement on the demand - side, prices may fall [1]. - Market sentiment for industrial silicon has cooled, leading to a sharp decline in prices; a significant drop in coal prices has caused polysilicon prices to fall; market sentiment for lithium carbonate has been volatile, with the contract hitting the daily limit down [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of July 28, SMM data shows that the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9950 yuan/ton, and 421 is 10200 yuan/ton. The latest domestic inventory is 442,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. In June, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. In June, exports were 68,323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations were 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45% [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northwest factories' previously overhauled furnaces have recently resumed production, and southwest factories are accelerating resumption. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The reduction in the northwest still dominates short - term supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. The inventory of warehouse receipts provides some support, but the speed of reduction has slowed down [5]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment decline, rapid coal price drop, and further supply recovery have weakened price support, suppressing the upside space [6]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.2%. In May, exports were about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In May, imports were about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations were 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The significant decline in coal prices last Friday led to a drop in polysilicon prices. On the supply side, production capacity in the southwest is rising with the arrival of the wet season. On the demand side, although photovoltaic installations increased significantly from January to May, it has overdrafted the demand for the second half of the year, and subsequent demand may weaken [7]. - **Outlook**: Anti - involution policies have significantly boosted polysilicon prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy expectations are false, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On July 28, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by 9.19% to 73,120 yuan, and the total contract positions decreased by 107,784 to 800,394 hands. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 1000 yuan to 73,900 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 1000 yuan to 71,700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Main Logic**: Current supply - demand drivers are weak, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. In the third quarter, domestic supply - demand is generally balanced, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is clear, if market sentiment recovers, prices may rise. There is high short - term uncertainty, and options are recommended for speculation [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support prices, and prices are expected to oscillate [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-29 经贸不确定性驱动减弱，关注本周劳动 ⼒市场数据 美欧谈判结果的落地仍⽀撑市场⻛险偏好，市场对中美谈判的预期偏乐 观，经贸不确定性短期的下降对⻩⾦形成压制。本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉ 降息会议上美联储的表达较为重要。⽉度级别来看，后续重点关注8⽉全 球央⾏年会，若配合美联储换届扰动，或带来波动弹性放⼤。中期基于看 多⻩⾦的前提，维持对⽩银趋势看多。从弹性视⻆来看，⻩⾦在3500美元 受阻的背景下，⽩银于40美元处明显承压，突破预计需要⾦价配合。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普宣布与欧盟达成贸易框架协议，并特别强调该协 议对汽车产业"意义重大"。根据协议内容，美方将对大部分欧盟商 品征收15%的统一关税，较此前威胁的30%大幅下调，也几乎减半了此 前针对欧洲汽车行业高达27.5%的关税水平。总统特朗普表示，全球 关税幅度将在15%至20%之间。美国将生产自己的钢铁和铝。 2）美国总统特朗普谈美联储：即便不降息，美国的经济表现也不 错；降息之后情况会更好；聪明人会降息；认为本周必须降息。 宏观研究团队 研究员： 3）中美两 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main line of "anti - involution" in the stock index futures market is switching. The market has expectations for stimulus policies, and new main lines such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies are emerging. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions in IM [3][9]. - In the stock index options market, the volatility has shown an inflection point, and the probability of short - term volatility decline is relatively high. It is advisable to build positions for short - volatility strategies. The certainty of volatility strategies is slightly stronger than that of directional strategies [4][10]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, but there are still many short - term disturbing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with narrow - range trading and shrinking volume. The market risk preference was at a relatively high level, and the main line showed signs of switching [3][9]. - **Reasons for Main - line Switching**: Firstly, the China - US tariff negotiation is in progress, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies. Secondly, the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and the coal and steel industries in the stock market led the decline on Monday. Thirdly, new main - line directions are emerging, such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies [3][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM with a half - position [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Volatility**: Last week, the "anti - involution" policy supported the volatility, but this week, the volatility of most varieties showed an inflection point in the morning and closed down in the afternoon. The short - term probability of volatility decline is high [4][10]. - **Sentiment Index**: Weak liquidity and the expiration of all current - month contracts suggest that trading - type funds are relatively conservative in the short term [4][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - volatility strategies in the short term and continue to hold the medium - term covered - call strategy [4][10]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the sentiment in the bond market improved. The T main contract opened higher and then fluctuated [4][10]. - **Reasons for Improvement**: Firstly, most commodity futures fell, and the speculative sentiment in the market cooled down. Secondly, the central bank's net investment in the open - market operation at the end of the month improved the capital situation. Thirdly, there was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect in the intraday trading [4][10][12]. - **Short - term Outlook**: There are still many disturbing factors in the bond market, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [4][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on the basis convergence of the TL main contract, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic indicators to be announced this week include the US July ADP employment number, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and China's July official manufacturing PMI [14]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Industry**: The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, consolidate the industrial economy, and promote the development of emerging technologies [14]. - **Parenting Subsidy**: The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced, providing subsidies for infants under 3 years old [15]. - **Trade Talks**: China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations through dialogue and cooperation [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions to monitor data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data is not provided in the summary part.