1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - On January 7, equity index futures showed differentiated performance, CGB futures declined, and most commodities rose, with nickel, coke, coking coal, and stainless steel hitting the daily limit [2][9][12]. - The sharp rally in coking coal and coke was driven by both macro and industry - specific factors. The macro outlook warmed due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance, and the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke improved marginally [18][19][20]. - The significant increase in nickel prices was due to expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, low nickel valuation, and demand expectations from solid - state battery industrialization. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose with high inventories [28][29][31]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 0.5% while IF fell 0.4% [9][12]. - CGB futures: TL declined 0.44% and T dropped 0.08% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were nickel (up 8.0% with 1.1% MoM increase in open interest), coke (up 8.0% with 4.6% MoM increase in open interest), and coking coal (up 8.0% with 2.3% MoM increase in open interest). Top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.6% with 12.7% MoM decrease in open interest), crude oil (down 2.6% with 4.3% MoM increase in open interest), and platinum (down 2.5% with 2.8% MoM decrease in open interest) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On January 7, coking coal rose 8.0% to 1,164 yuan per ton, and coke rose 8.0% to 1,773 yuan per ton. The rally was due to a warming macro outlook (PBOC's accommodative policy) and improved supply - demand structure (eased Mongolia coal imports and increasing pig iron output) [17][20][22]. 1.2.2 Nickel - On January 7, nickel rose 8.0% to 147,720 yuan per ton. The price increase on January 6 was driven by expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, non - ferrous sector sentiment, low valuation, and solid - state battery demand. Supply pressure lingers, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are high. Short - term strength is supported by policy and non - ferrous sentiment, and investors are advised to buy on dips and monitor Indonesian policy rollout [28][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Two ministries issued regulations stating that online trading platform operators shall not mandate or disguisedly mandate merchants to sell goods/services below cost. They also cannot impose unreasonable restrictions on merchants' independent operations [33][35]. - The PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's gold reserves at the end of December were 74.15 million ounces (approx. 2,306.323 tons), up 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) MoM [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Based on the rising domestic policy expectations, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Treat precious metals as a standard allocation in the short term and over - allocate them on dips after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, domestic equity markets are expected to strengthen driven by policy and fiscal front - loading expectations; treasury bonds can be observed for bull - steepening opportunities under easing expectations but with limited odds; non - ferrous metals perform relatively well under macro and industrial support; black commodities return to a weak and volatile state after the winter - storage driven rebound; crude oil is expected to be volatile and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [5]. Summary by Directory Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on option market liquidity [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Long - end sentiment remains weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an upward trend after a volatile adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [6]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Near - term prices are supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and long - term prices are affected by the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipping companies' 2026 resumption arrangements, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [6]. - **Steel Products**: Cost performance is strong, and the futures price rebounds from a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is strong, and both futures and spot prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: There are limited fundamental changes, and the futures price shows a pattern of weak first and then strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Auction prices rise and fall, and most commodities rise at night. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: Commodity sentiment warms up, and the valuation premium recovers. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on spot sales [6]. - **Soda Ash**: There are limited fundamental changes, and sentiment drives the valuation to recover. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected delays in ore复产, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: Mozal Aluminum Plant faces shutdown, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery improves, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices rebound. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices fluctuate under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong reality is facing challenges, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The US is dealing with Venezuelan - sanctioned crude oil, and asphalt futures prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is a decline, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation in Venezuela is under control, and fuel oil futures prices fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate and fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - **Methanol**: The situation in the Middle East is turbulent, and methanol prices rise strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: New orders are actively traded, and the announcement of the Indian tender boosts sentiment. Urea prices are stable and slightly strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [8]. - **PX**: Geopolitics boosts international oil prices, providing cost support. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and refining unit disruptions [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support combined with strong chemical sentiment strengthens the price support at the bottom. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and insufficient downstream polyester load support [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand sustainability is insufficient, and profits are under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and shipping costs [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - **Plastic**: The basis is weak, and the upward space of plastic prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - **Styrene**: Exports and commodity sentiment are warm, driving styrene to fluctuate strongly recently. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Supply disruptions occur frequently, and PVC prices rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Market sentiment is positive, driving caustic soda prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats fluctuate, with soybean oil being relatively strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The market trading is active, and double - meal prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on customs policies, South American weather, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The rotation purchase restarts, and prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and spot prices rebound slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Capital sentiment remains positive, and rubber prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the rise of natural rubber. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations [8]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices fluctuate and face pressure later. The short - term judgment is a volatile decline, and the focus is on imports and Northern Hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: Capital and macro - factors dominate the market, and pulp futures prices fluctuate repeatedly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [8]. - **Offset Paper**: There are few fundamental changes, and the offset paper futures price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: The market warms up, and logs follow the strength of the black sector. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipment volume and dispatch volume [8]. Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomics - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination of the new Fed Chairman in January. Hassett is still the most popular candidate in the market's expectation, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The short - term positive effect of the geopolitical event in Venezuela on crude oil and precious metals is expected to be limited [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released and optimized compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two - major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. It has also approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5].

| 中信期货有限公司 | | --- | 市场情绪较强,玻纯大幅拉涨 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 从业资格号:F03100815 从业资格号:F03144159 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0019832 | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号:Z0021807 | 投资咨询号:Z0022199 | | 1.1 . 2 | | | | 钟 宏 从业资格号:F03118246 投资咨询号:Z0022727 玻璃纯碱大涨行情点评: 今日玻璃纯碱大幅上涨，盘中涨幅超7%。主要由于近期宏观和商品市场情绪较好，叠加成本端犹动，煤焦盘面先后涨停，使得玻璃纯碱价 格快速拉升。2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日-6日召开，会议提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，宏观预期回暖，近期商品市场情 结偏强，文华商品指数快速上行，成本端动力媒价格企稳回升，煤焦盘面大幅拉涨带动玻璃纯碱价格快速上行。从供需基本面来看,玻璃 纯碱没有发生根本性改变。 纯碱需求端，重碱预计维持 ...

2026年1月6日，沪毅合约大幅上涨。夜盘封涨停板8%至147720元吨。同时伦锦也大幅冲高，盘中一度涨超10%、엔三年以来最大涨幅。银价大幅上行主要受到市场对于印尼端政策收紧 预期支撑。 整加有色板块集体冲高带动情绪大幅上扬，银作为有色板块中估值税对较低的品种变现较强向上弹性，同时面态电池"业化有所提速。 进一步带动银远期需求向好预期增强。印尼瑞 政策最新动态来看，SMM1月5日讯、印尼将通过 RKAB 诚控 2026 年矿产配额、旨在实现供应与下游需求同步——印尼ESDMI明确表示、2026 年度工作计划和预算（RKAB）将作为战略工具。 度矿产产量与国内工业需求同步、特别是将镜产量目标设定在 2.9 亿吨左右以匹配治泵厂节能。尽管印尼银矿商协会（APN）担心产量可能降至 2.5 亿吨。但政府表示具体数据仍在整合中、旨 在确保印尼下游产业在不严重依赖进口的情况下保持盈利。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端。国内电锯12月产量环比再度回升，同时印尼12月MHP、冰辣和滚软产量整体维持高位、整体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，不锈钢井产在利润修复下 环比有所增长、但电镀和合金端预计将有所下滑。整体基本 ...

| 宏观偏暖商品普涨,双焦供需改善领涨 | | | | | 2026/01/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | 从业资格号: F03100815 | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 | | 从业资格号:F03144159 | 从业资格号:F03118246 | | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号: Z0019832 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021807 | 按贫容间号: Z0022199 | 妆货公馆号: Z0022727 | | 昨日夜盘起,商品市场情绪高涨、各品种几乎全线飘红,其中焦煤多个合约盘中触及涨停,焦炭主力合约盘中涨超7%,领涨商 | | | | | | | 品期货。我们认为双焦的大幅上涨有以下两个原因。 | | | | | | | 其一,2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日-6日召开. 会议内容使得市场宏观预期回暖,带动整体商品市场情绪升温。会议 | | | | | | | 强调,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,继续实施适度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend with both price and trading volume increasing, while the bond market sentiment is weak [1]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high with heavy trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in IC contracts before the Two Sessions [1]. - In the stock index options market, the trading volume increased significantly, and there was an obvious phenomenon of rising price and volatility. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads [2]. - Regarding treasury bond futures, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend on Tuesday, rising 1.5% with heavy volume. Non - ferrous metals and non - bank finance led the gains, and the CSI 500 performed better among broad - based indices. The rally was driven by positive external sentiment, early entry of institutional funds, and the resonance between the commodity and stock markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in IC contracts [1][7]. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was 4.71 points, 0.04 points, 21.86 points, and 10.10 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 8.45 points, 2.38 points, 8.26 points, and 4.78 points. The spread between current - month and next - month contracts and the total positions also changed [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued to rise significantly, and the trading volume of the options market reached 139.52 billion yuan, a 42.38% increase from the previous day. The game and chasing intensity at the options end increased significantly, with an obvious rise in the call trading volume ratio and an average increase of 2.05% in the implied volatility index. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads and turn to a wait - and - see attitude for short - selling strategies [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The T main contract showed a volatile trend throughout the day. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose, and the DR001 rate slightly rose to around 1.26%. The A - share market's continuous improvement affected the bond market sentiment. The central bank's bond - buying scale in December was 50 billion yuan, falling short of expectations. Investors need to pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and institutional investors can play for rebounds but should wait for a reversal [3][8][10]. - The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Operational suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focusing on basis widening, and expecting the yield curve to remain steep [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides an economic calendar for the current week, including indicators such as China's December SPGI Services PMI, China's December foreign exchange reserves, the US December ADP employment change, the Eurozone November unemployment rate, etc., along with their previous values, forecast values, and some yet - to - be - announced values [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The 2026 work meeting of the People's Bank of China emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and providing financial support for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [12]. - A Fed governor said that subsequent economic data would support the view that interest rate cuts are appropriate, and the Fed should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented [13][17][29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report recommends continuing to monitor long positions in copper, indicating a positive investment outlook for the copper market [9][11]. 2. Core View Recently, copper prices have shown a strong upward trend. Supply disruptions in the copper market are increasing, while demand remains sluggish in the off - season. However, due to the strengthening expectation of supply contraction and the weakening US dollar, copper prices are likely to remain strong [4][5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Review - Copper prices have maintained a strong upward trend, with SHFE Copper futures breaking through 105,000 yuan/ton and LME Copper futures surpassing 13,000 US dollars/ton [4][5]. - Supply disruption events have occurred. Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will have a strike, reducing output to 30% of normal capacity (annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of copper cathode), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals' Mirador copper mine in Ecuador's second - phase project has been postponed [4][5]. Market Outlook - **Supply Side** - On the copper ore front, supply disruptions are continuously increasing. The earlier supply tightness from Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has been exacerbated, and the supply of copper ore continues to tighten [7][10]. - In copper smelting, the 2026 long - term copper ore treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are at an all - time low of 0 US dollars/ton. CSPT member enterprises will cut copper ore - based smelting capacity by over 10% in 2026, and the NDRC emphasizes optimizing copper smelting capacity, strengthening the expectation of refined copper supply contraction [7][10]. - **Demand Side** - As the off - season arrives, end - user demand remains weak, and inventories are piling up. But due to the strengthened expectation of supply contraction, the long - term supply - demand balance is expected to tighten [8][11]. - **Price Outlook** - With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and expanding its balance sheet, the US dollar remains weak, providing macro - economic support for copper prices. Considering the continuous disruptions in copper ore supply, copper prices are likely to stay strong, and it is recommended to continue monitoring long positions in copper [9][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillation", "oscillation with an upward bias", and "oscillation with a downward bias" [5][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - environmental impacts. It concludes that most products will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - to - medium term, with some showing a slight upward or downward bias [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Spot inventory is decreasing, and oils and fats are oscillating narrowly. - **Logic**: The commercial inventory of three major oils has decreased, but the impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices has weakened, and the supply - demand relationship in the oil market is complex. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Weather in Argentina has drawn attention, and both soybean meal and rapeseed meal have risen slightly. - **Logic**: International soybean markets face competition, and domestic pre - holiday supply and demand are both weak. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: Corn purchase has restarted, and prices are oscillating within a range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are stable, and the purchase policy provides short - term support. - **Outlook**: Corn prices will oscillate, with a possible decline before the Spring Festival and a rise after [10][11] 3.1.4 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures contract has rebounded. - **Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. - **Outlook**: Hog prices will oscillate, with near - month contracts at a low level and far - month contracts supported by production - reduction expectations [12][13][14] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Positive capital sentiment continues, and rubber prices are rising. - **Logic**: Driven by overall commodity sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it can be treated as bullish [17][18] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the upward trend of natural rubber. - **Logic**: The improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but there is short - term pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is pressure and may need adjustment; in the medium term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [19][20] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues. - **Logic**: Domestic demand is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area. - **Outlook**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [20][21] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. - **Logic**: Global and domestic sugar supplies are both increasing. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, it will oscillate with a downward bias [21] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by capital and macro factors, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are a mix of positives and negatives, and the market is currently driven by capital. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate with an upward bias [22] 3.1.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has improved, and offset paper is performing strongly. - **Logic**: Paper mills have raised prices, and the market sentiment has warmed up. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [23][24] 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: There are no significant contradictions, and it is recommended to operate within a range. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there is support at certain price levels. - **Outlook**: From January to February, supply pressure will ease marginally, and logs will mainly oscillate within a range [25] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [26][45][58] 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 6, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a positive performance, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a 5 - day increase of 0.73%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [184][186]