Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is expected to move higher as the US dollar index may remain weak and the supply - side of copper is expected to contract significantly. Investors are advised to continue to focus on long positions in copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The copper price has rebounded sharply, with the LME copper price breaking through $11,000 per ton and the SHFE copper price approaching 50,000 yuan per ton, hitting a new historical high. The trigger may be the expected continuous contraction of the supply - side due to the low copper concentrate processing fees and the CSPT's agreement to reduce the mining copper production load by over 10% in 2026 [3]. Fundamental Situation - **Macro**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in February is increasing, and the recovery of liquidity is favorable for the copper price. Concerns about the Fed's independence may keep the US dollar index weak, which will support the copper price [4][5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper ore is increasingly tight, and the processing fees are at a low level with a risk of further decline. The CSPT's joint production cut is triggered by the low processing fees. After the 770 - notice, the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, leading to production cuts in some smelters. The electrolytic copper production has declined since September, and the supply - side has started to contract [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season of consumption, the demand for copper wire is weak, but the spot is still at a premium, indicating that the downstream's acceptance of the rising copper price is gradually increasing. The high premium of Chilean copper to Chinese customers reflects the market's expectation of a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [4]. Summary and Strategy - With the deepening of the tight copper ore supply logic and the CSPT's joint production cut, the expectation of copper supply contraction is strong. The copper price is expected to move higher, and investors are advised to continue to focus on long positions in copper [5].

Report Overview - This is a weekly view summary from CITIC Futures Research Institute, covering various commodity sectors and providing short - term and medium - term outlooks for each commodity. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each commodity, mainly including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", and "oscillating weakly". 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a state of shrinking volume, with potential unlocking and reduction pressure, and a policy window period. Capital is congested and waiting to be released, suggesting a long - term and short - term investment strategy with a dumbbell structure. - For different commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, policy, and macro - economic environment, showing different trends of oscillation, oscillation strongly, or oscillation weakly. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: Market conditions suggest an oscillating trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the central bank's bond trading and potential implementation of total - volume monetary policy tools, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the fourth quarter. Current suggestions are for curve steepening and arbitrage opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Weekly attention is on US PMI and ADP employment data. The price ranges for London gold are [4000, 4400] and for London silver are [53, 60], showing an oscillating trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints and increasing supply disturbances lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term macro - mood fluctuations and a stable fundamental situation result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: Excess supply in reality but low - level valuation leads to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term cost support and stable supply - demand result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, strengthened cost support and potential policy disturbances also lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Zinc**: Rising inventory, "squeezing position" situation, weakening downstream demand in the off - season, and high supply lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Tin**: Tight supply at the mine end provides strong price support, resulting in an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Lead**: High procurement demand, production decline due to smelter maintenance, and potential supply shortage lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Nickel**: Loose current supply - demand leads to a short - term oscillating weakly trend. Uncertainty in future supply from Indonesia means a medium - to - long - term oscillating trend [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamental factors and cost support lead to an oscillating trend [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term tight supply - demand balance, medium - term supply surplus, and recent supply gap lead to wide - range price fluctuations and an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy support and weakening demand result in a wide - range oscillating trend. Attention is on year - end policy signals and the warehouse receipt registration process [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Potential demand decline in the organic silicon industry and inventory pressure lead to an oscillating trend. Attention is on new warehouse receipt registration progress [3]. - **Cobalt**: Escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo increase potential risks, leading to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating and waiting for guidance from OPEC+ meetings and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: European gas prices are oscillating, and US gas prices may be strongly oscillating in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention is on supply - side policies and inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - to - long - term price range of (570 - 770) is still a significant reference [3]. - **High - Sulfur and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating downward [3]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices are oscillating downward [3]. - **LPG**: Attention is on whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. The basis is low, and the upside space is limited, showing an oscillating trend [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: Accumulating inventory pressure in December leads to a short - term oscillating trend [3]. - **PX**: Affected by sentiment and cost in the short - term, the price range is [6650, 6950], and PXN is expected to oscillate between [250, 290] dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: Affected by cost and market sentiment, the price range is [4650, 4850], and the processing fee for the 01 contract is in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices are expected to continue oscillating in the low - level range, and the EG01 - 05 spread should be cautiously arbitraged at high levels [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly attempted [3]. - **Bottle Chips**: The processing fee has strong support at the bottom of the short - term range but also faces significant upward pressure, and the absolute price follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas information is confirmed, the futures price rebounds but shows signs of weakness. Attention is on whether the coastal inventory can continue to be digested [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upside space is limited, and attention is on maintenance changes, showing an oscillating trend [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: A decline in electricity prices in December lowers the cost, and the futures price may decline. If upstream production is cut or the warehouse receipt logic before delivery is fermented, the price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: Short - term 01 contract shows a small - scale rebound due to position games. Without positive factors, the price may return to a weak trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Short - term storage progress may return to normal, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention is on the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: With an increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, speculation on South American soybeans, and China's return to the US soybean market, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory decline is slow, and the basis is rising. The bean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention is on the long position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the main contract change [3]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil)**: With a narrowing expected increase in palm oil production in November, a stable market sentiment, cost support for domestic soybean oil, tight domestic rapeseed supply, and inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level [3]. - **Pigs**: In the near - term, the pig price continues to be weak due to high - level production capacity and large - scale pig slaughter at the end of the year. In the long - term, production capacity reduction expectations support the far - month contract price. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention is on the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. - **Apples**: With strong support for the spot price, positive expectations from Tomb - Sweeping Festival stockpiling and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm. Attention is on low - buying opportunities after price corrections and future weather changes in the producing areas [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trend - forming market, and the current price is closer to the upper - level pressure. For arbitrage, the RU - MR spread has reached a phased high, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it oscillates within a range. In the long - term, with a low valuation, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price oscillates widely due to the issue of warehouse receipts [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long - term, due to expected supply surplus in the new sugar - making season, the price has a downward driving force, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Shows an oscillating trend. The market's expectation of resuming navigation in the first half of 2026 has increased, but there is still pressure on the far - month contract, and it is difficult to fully resume navigation in the first quarter [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 48th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, scale, and planned issuance of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and treasury bonds [3][7][9][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 101.3% [3] - This week, new special bonds issued 225.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 143 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 39 billion yuan [3] - In November, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 492.2 billion yuan [4] New General Bonds - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 91.5% [8] - This week, new general bonds issued 8.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11.6 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 11.4 billion yuan [7] - In November, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 41.6 billion yuan [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 325.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 199.2 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 60.5 billion yuan [9] - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 99.8% [10] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 39.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 62.5 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 133.8 billion yuan [13] - As of November 30, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 93.2% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 365 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 136.7 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 73.3 billion yuan [15] - As of November 30, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 96.1% [15]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds reached 101.3%, new general bonds reached 91.5%, new local bonds reached 99.8%, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 93.2%, and the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance reached 96.1% [3][8][10][14][15] Key Data Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 225.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 143 billion yuan, and 39 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [3] - In November, a total of 492.2 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued [4] General Bonds - This week, 8.8 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 11.6 billion yuan, and 11.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [7] - In November, a total of 41.6 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 325.9 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 199.2 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 60.5 billion yuan [9] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 39.1 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 62.5 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is -133.8 billion yuan [13] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 365 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 136.7 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is -73.3 billion yuan [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black industry have limited bright spots, and prices are under pressure. Glass and soda ash prices rebounded from low levels due to supply - side disturbances. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, there may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts. Attention should be paid to the potential for short - term upward movements driven by improved macro sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream mines. Port stocks increased, steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased, and the demand for restocking has not been significantly released. Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' profitability declined. The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - The supply of scrap steel increased while demand remained stable. After the price decline, its cost - effectiveness improved, and the downside space is limited. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and relaxation of environmental protection measures, coke supply stabilized. In the short term, the rigid demand from steel mills remained strong, and the total inventory remained low. However, the cost support for spot goods continued to weaken, and the market expected price cuts. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Domestic coking coal supply remained low, and its fundamentals have not significantly weakened. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation of restocking for winter storage. The near - term futures contracts are affected by delivery, and the price is expected to oscillate. The far - term contracts are undervalued, and the fundamentals strongly support the price [3] Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon provides support, but the market supply and demand remain loose, and the upward pressure on prices is significant. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6]. - The firm cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply and demand are still loose, suppressing the upward price space. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions for glass, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices; otherwise, prices may rise. The soda ash price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is weakening, and the steel inventory is higher than the same period last year. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and the profitability continued to decline. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply increased while demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Coke**: Supply increased as profits improved, and cost support weakened. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals marginally weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. - **Glass**: Affected by the expected price increase from manufacturers, the sales improved. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be under pressure; otherwise, they may rise [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost provides support, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost supports the bottom, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PB Fines most active contract basis values mostly fall within the range of [0, 200] yuan/ton. The basis is highest when a new contract is first listed and gradually narrows to around zero as the delivery month approaches. There is an expectation for the basis to strengthen in September, a peak season, while it tends to decline during the off - season and invariably as the delivery month approaches. In the delivery month, the basis for the September and January contracts is slightly higher than that of the May contract. When price spreads between different ore grades widen, the basis may deviate quickly from normal ranges [4]. - After standardizing the monthly average basis data of the three major contracts by delivery month, the basis is highest when the contract is newly listed and gradually narrows to around zero as it approaches delivery. This is because iron ore futures typically exhibit a long - term backwardation structure. The 09 and 01 contracts have stronger spot demand and their basis remains above zero at delivery, while the May contract's basis at delivery is lower due to weaker demand [71][77]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Concept - Basis = Adjusted Spot Futures Equivalent Price – Futures Price; Spread = Spot Price – Futures Price. The divergence in spot - futures price movements arises from different pricing benchmarks and the fact that futures prices reflect both spot fundamentals and market expectations. Spot price is defined as the lowest tax - included PB FINES price across all ports; futures price is the DCE iron ore main contract closing price for January, May, and September. Well - designed delivery systems should lead to basis near zero at delivery, but multiple deliverable brands cause basis to reflect additional price differences. Data from 2021 is excluded to show the normal seasonal pattern of basis [15][16][17]. 3.2 Contract Basis 3.2.1 PB Fines January Contract Basis - The maximum value of the PB Fines January contract basis is 518.9 yuan/ton, the minimum is - 28.9 yuan/ton, the average is 89.7 yuan/ton, and the 80% range is [2.9, 188.1] yuan/ton. The basis slightly widened in September (peak season) and tended to contract more rapidly in November and December (off - season) [35][38]. 3.2.2 PB Fines May Contract Basis - The maximum value of the PB Fines May contract basis is 619.1 yuan/ton, the minimum is - 57.5 yuan/ton, the average is 85.5 yuan/ton, and the 80% range is [- 1.8, 204.7] yuan/ton. The basis narrowed rapidly in April (ahead of delivery and seasonal transition) and strengthened in September (traditional peak season). The decline in October was limited [45]. 3.2.3 PB Fines September Contract Basis - The maximum value of the PB Fines September contract basis is 398.1 yuan/ton, the minimum is - 28.1 yuan/ton, the average is 80.1 yuan/ton, and the 80% range is [2.1, 201.7] yuan/ton. The basis declined rapidly in July (off - season and close to delivery). The basis in January was relatively strong, possibly due to longer time to delivery and market expectations of increased supply [58]. 3.3 Conclusion 3.3.1 Normalization - The monthly average basis of the three major contracts is highest when the contract is newly listed and gradually narrows to around zero as it approaches delivery. The 09 and 01 contracts have stronger spot demand and positive basis at delivery, while the May contract's basis at delivery is lower due to weaker demand [71][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market continues to defend and wait, while the bond market sentiment needs to be restored. Specifically, the trading volume of stock index futures is insufficient to support an upward trend; the market sentiment of stock index options is stable with differentiated volatility; and the sentiment of long - term treasury bond futures remains weak [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The trading volume is insufficient to support an upward trend. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The Shanghai Composite Index on Thursday showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a slight gain and continued shrinking volume to 1.72 trillion yuan. The market lacks both trading volume and a clear main line, so it continues to defend and wait. The persistence of popular sectors is limited, and the market logic is scattered. It still awaits event or main - line signals to resume an upward trend. Tactically, it is recommended to continue the dumbbell - shaped allocation in the short term and observe the window for layout adjustment [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in Dividend ETF + IM [7] Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is differentiated. The total turnover of the options market decreased by 3.20% to 67.21 billion yuan compared with the previous day. After the expiration of ETF options on Wednesday, the put - call ratio in the remaining positions continued to rise, indicating that the market sentiment is still recovering. The volatility of 500ETF and ChiNext ETF has increased to a relatively high - middle position, while other varieties have not changed much and continue to fluctuate at a medium - low level, providing space for volatility - reducing strategies [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold covered call strategies to increase returns [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of long - term bonds remains weak. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection of 564 billion yuan led to a decline in inter - bank funding rates, and the funding situation has eased, which is relatively favorable for short - term performance. The long - term bonds fluctuated weakly, mainly due to the undetermined new regulations on public fund fees and the lack of positive drivers such as the central bank's loose monetary policy. The stock - bond seesaw effect also exists. In the short term, the impact of the new fund fee regulations on the bond market may continue; before the important meetings in December, policy expectation disturbances may increase. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [7][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, expect a strong - side fluctuation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, look for positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [9] Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data of the United States, China, and the EU from November 25th to 27th, 2025, including PPI annual rate, retail sales year - on - year, durable goods order monthly rate, initial jobless claims, industrial enterprise profits, and economic sentiment index [10] Important Information and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting on November 24th to study and formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition, aiming to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises and maintain a good market price order [11] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, mentioned that in the development of the embodied intelligence industry, it is necessary to balance "speed" and "bubble". The scale of the embodied intelligence industry represented by humanoid robots is growing at a rate of over 50%, and it is expected to reach a market scale of tens of billions by 2030. However, there are also risks such as product duplication and compressed R & D space [11] - The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to October, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The profit situations of different types of enterprises and industries vary [12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the sub - items of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific monitoring data is provided [13][17][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Platinum**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for platinum. In the long - term, a bullish view is maintained, and a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is suggested when the platinum - palladium ratio is low [2][4]. - **Palladium**: The price is supported by spot shortages and is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot is scarce [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - **Market Performance**: On November 27, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 430.3 yuan/gram, with a 6.25% increase. On the first day of listing, the intraday maximum increase reached 12.9% [3][4]. - **Main Logic**: The weak US economic data has revived the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term spot market and long - term supply - demand expectations have not changed significantly, and the domestic market sentiment may be overheated. In the long - term, the supply concentration is high, demand will expand steadily, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the price elasticity [4]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The platinum price is expected to oscillate upward. Low - buying and long - position opportunities are recommended, and a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is suggested at a low platinum - palladium ratio [4]. Palladium - **Market Performance**: On November 27, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 370.6 yuan/gram, with a 1.53% increase [3]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting palladium supply. The US is investigating Russian palladium imports. There is a significant structural pressure on demand. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot is scarce, and the price has certain support at the bottom [5]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the price has strong bottom support. However, it is still suppressed by its weak supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - to - long - term, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [5]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: On November 27, the commodity index was 2241.06 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2543.53 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2200.67 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1336.40 (+0.00%) [34]. - **Sector Index**: On November 27, the non - ferrous metal index was 2467.27. The daily increase was +0.00%, the 5 - day increase was +0.90%, the 1 - month decrease was - 1.15%, and the year - to - date increase was +6.89% [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is trading steadily above $4150, with the core driver being the strong consolidation pattern before the December policy path is finalized. The overall situation is in a "strong consolidation - waiting for a catalyst" phase [1]. - The continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is the core factor for gold to maintain a narrow - range consolidation above $4150. Although the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US are generally strong, they do not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - If the December FOMC meeting continues the loose path, the gold price is expected to further break through $4200 and approach the previous high range again [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - Multiple US policymakers pointed out in public speeches that the slowdown in employment and the decline in inflation will continue to affect the policy direction, and they did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December [2]. - European economic officials said that the eurozone needs to speed up internal capital expenditure and industrial chain adjustment to reduce its structural dependence on external demand, and the EU is studying a new round of industrial and trade coordination plan [2]. - Ukraine and Russia have carried out multiple rounds of communication on border security and infrastructure protection, and Russia reiterated the need to establish a verifiable mechanism for security arrangements to promote subsequent discussions [2]. - As of the week ended November 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April this year; the number of continued claims was 1.96 million; the four - week average of initial claims dropped to 223,800 [2]. - In September, non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.9%, orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 0.6%, and orders excluding defense increased by 0.1%. The overall durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5%, with the previous value revised up to 3%, and multiple manufacturing sub - items continued to show signs of recovery [2]. 2. Price Logic - Gold maintains a narrow - range consolidation above $4150, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The strength of initial jobless claims and durable goods orders does not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - The stable ETF holdings and continuous central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom for the price. Although there is still short - term technical overbought pressure, the trend momentum is gradually accumulating [3]. 3. Outlook - The weekly range for London gold is maintained at [4030 - 4200], and for London silver at [50 - 55] [4]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices and sector indices. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [46]. - For the precious metals index on November 26, 2025, the current value is 3370.94, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 4.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 52.36% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the OPEC+ meeting on November 30 are the main factors affecting the crude oil market. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may cause crude oil to continue to fluctuate. The decline in the US MX price on the 26th has led to a short - term selling pressure on aromatic varieties. In the next period, the basis and inventory levels may determine the strength of different varieties [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue has continuously disturbed the crude oil geopolitical premium. The OPEC+ meeting is likely to continue the first - quarter production policy. Global supply surplus and inventory accumulation pressure remain. If geopolitical support weakens, the price is expected to return to a weak pattern [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price may seek lower support. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production in December and the expected Russia - Ukraine framework agreement, the crude oil price may test the important support level of WTI57. The asphalt futures price has broken through the important support of 3000 and may seek lower support. The asphalt market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. OPEC+ increasing production in December and the expected Russia - Ukraine agreement have led to a decline in the cracking spread and futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It follows the decline of refined oil products. It is affected by factors such as the decline in Russian refined oil exports, shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply and demand situation is changing [12]. - **PX**: The price difference between US and Asian aromatics has converged, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the profit support has strengthened under the concession of naphtha. The overall supply - demand situation of PX is relatively stable, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuation of blending oil sentiment and cost support [14]. - **PTA**: The sentiment of blending oil has cooled down, but the short - term supply - demand pattern still has support. The PTA load is at a relatively low level, and the high load of downstream polyester provides support. The spot profit has resistance to rebound, but the basis is relatively strong [15]. - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline is weak, and pure benzene is mainly in a volatile state. There are many news about pure benzene and styrene, with both positive and negative factors. The driving force of the blending oil narrative is questionable, and attention should be paid to the trend of cracking spreads and price differences between the US and Asia [17][18]. - **Styrene**: The blending oil narrative has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. After the extrusion of the blending oil premium, the downward space of styrene is limited. The balance sheet shows that the contradiction between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not significant [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of oil - based plants. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has no further positive support, and the port inventory is gradually increasing. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range adjustment in the short term [21][22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream. The upstream polymerization cost has decreased, and the downstream demand is weakening. The inventory of short - fiber has slightly increased [24][25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate. The upstream polymerization cost has decreased, and the price of bottle chips has followed the decline. The processing fee has expanded passively, but the supply - demand drive is weak, and the profit repair space is limited [26][27]. - **Methanol**: The support from port inventory reduction and import contraction is limited, and it is difficult to continue the upward trend. The overall supply data is still strong, and downstream demand is weak. The upward space after the futures price rebound is limited [29]. - **Urea**: The inventory has significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment remains. Although the supply - demand pattern of urea is still characterized by strong supply and weak demand, the significant inventory reduction has brought bullish sentiment. The trading volume may slow down after the factory raises the price [30]. - **LLDPE**: The support from maintenance is limited, and LLDPE is in a volatile state. The futures price of LLDPE is affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, geopolitical premiums, and its own supply - demand situation. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [33]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The current maintenance support is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the mid - stream inventory is at a high level. Future attention should be paid to the changes and sustainability of maintenance [34]. - **PL**: The spot is strong, and PL is in a volatile state. The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [35]. - **PVC**: High inventory suppresses the price, and PVC may anchor production reduction. The high - inventory removal of PVC is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction. The production is at a high level, downstream demand is weak, and exports have increased [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. Caustic soda is in a volatile state. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction. High inventory in the upstream and downstream is putting pressure on the spot price [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Price Difference**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period price differences for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis, its change values, and warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is given [40]. - **Inter - variety Price Difference**: The latest values and changes of inter - variety price differences for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented [42]. - **Chemical Basis and Price Difference Monitoring** - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided for this part.