Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The market is waiting for the release of key economic data. Platinum and palladium prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. As of February 10, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of 0.50%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a decline of 1.06% [1]. - For platinum, in the short - term, market is affected by sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit is beneficial to the long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to consider the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - For palladium, the supply side has uncertainties due to import investigations and potential sanctions. The spot shortage supports the price, while the demand side faces structural pressure. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation - The release of the US January non - farm payrolls report is postponed to this Wednesday due to a brief budget dispute in Congress. The January CPI data will be released this Friday. Before the release of these two key economic data, the market is in a wait - and - see mode [1]. 3.2 Platinum Analysis - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, factors such as the expected sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals in Europe, the repeated geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, along with the approaching long holiday making funds more cautious, keep the market in an oscillating and consolidating stage. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity [2]. - **Strategy**: This week, the platinum - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. 3.3 Palladium Analysis - **Main Logic**: The supply side of palladium has continuous uncertainties, including the undetermined result of the US import investigation on Russian unforged palladium and the European consideration of new sanctions on Russian palladium. The spot shortage supports the price, while the demand side faces structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations provide a clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: The spot shortage and the improving macro - environment lead to an expected medium - to - long - term price trend of oscillation and strengthening [3]. 3.4 Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index includes the commodity index (2374.89, +0.70%), the commodity 20 index (2710.51, +0.96%), the industrial products index (2278.80, +0.21%), and the PPI commodity index (1404.35, +0.58%) [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On February 9, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were stable, and commodity futures were mixed, with the energy sector leading the increase [2][10][12] - The turnover of China's futures market in January 2026 reached RMB 100.26 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 105.14%, and the trading volume was 912.49 million contracts, a year - on - year increase of 65.09%. By the end of January, the total open interest increased by 14.65% month - on - month [3][37] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On Feb 10, in equity index futures, IH rose 0.4% and IC rose 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.01% and TL rose 0.01% [10] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 4.2% month - on - month), Sodium Hydroxide (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 13.9% month - on - month), and No.1 Soybean (up 2.4% with open interest increasing 27.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.6% with open interest increasing 8.9% month - on - month), Coke (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 4.3% month - on - month), and Coking Coal (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 6.4% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 476.1 yuan/barrel. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical factors frequently disrupt supply expectations. The short - term trend will be range - bound volatility. The current fundamentals are not optimistic, with high inventories and pressured refining margins. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran relationship and India's Russian crude imports, affect supply expectations and support oil prices [17][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 2,845 yuan/ton. The futures prices are at high levels. The expectation of rising oil production in Venezuela will weigh on HSFO in the long term, and short - term focus is on Middle East geopolitical developments. Key logics include the US - Iran negotiation situation, potential heavy oil supply increase from Venezuela, and the long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East [25][26][27] 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Ethenylbenzene**: On Feb 10, the front - month contract dropped 1.0% to 7,473 yuan/ton. The upward momentum has weakened recently due to three factors: crude oil prices near the upper end of the trading range, marginal loosening of supply and demand, and expected improvement in the overseas supply - demand balance. Although the seasonal inventory build - up in February is revised lower, the positive impact of exports on futures prices is gradually weakening [30][31][32] 3.2 China News - Industry News - **Stock Exchanges' Measures**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, streamlining the review process for high - quality listed companies and revising rules for "asset - light, high R&D investment" listed companies [37] - **Futures Market Turnover**: In January 2026, China's futures market recorded 912.49 million contracts traded and a turnover of RMB 100.26 trillion, up 65.09% and 105.14% year on year respectively, and the total open interest increased by 14.65% month on month by the end of January [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market is expected to be mainly volatile as the holiday approaches. Different agricultural products have different trends, including weakening, fluctuating, and potential recovery [1]. - For example, the supply of live pigs is abundant, leading to a weakening of pig prices in the short - term, but the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Exports are weakening, and sentiment is cautious. Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. - **Logic**: The 1 - month palm oil inventory in Malaysia is lower than expected, but the weak export performance from February 1 - 10 has put pressure on sentiment. For soybeans, the market anticipates an increase in South American soybean production in the USDA's February report, and the support from Sino - US agricultural trade is weakening. Regarding rapeseed oil, after the tariff reduction agreement between China and Canada in early January, the supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying hedges at low回调 levels [5]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Funds are reducing positions before the holiday, and the two types of meal are trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: Internationally, China's purchase of US soybeans provides support, but the accelerated harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA's February report suppress the upward space of US soybean futures prices. Domestically, due to factors such as the exchange's margin increase and the Spring Festival holiday, pre - holiday funds are mainly for risk - avoidance, and the market is inactive. After the holiday, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday arrivals are decreasing, and prices are volatile. - **Logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the trading activity is decreasing. After the holiday, there may be some selling pressure, but the remaining grain pressure is limited. The supply of feed grains is supplemented by policy - grain auctions and imported grains. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Pay attention to the trading and restocking rhythm of traders after the holiday [8][9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Supply is abundant, and pig prices are weakening. - **Logic**: In the short - term, as the Spring Festival approaches, the number of slaughtered pigs is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until at least April 2026. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction was hindered in January 2026. After the holiday, the demand will decrease significantly, and the supply is still excessive in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the pressure on live pig slaughter will weaken in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. Before the Spring Festival, there is a risk of selling pressure. After the holiday, the fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Maintaining range - bound trading. - **Logic**: The rubber price is expected to continue range - bound trading before the holiday. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, there is a possibility of an early rise due to expected factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand side has some support but no large - scale restocking. The obvious negative factor is the rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The trading volume is limited, but the capital attention is increasing [11][12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Mainly range - bound trading before the holiday. - **Logic**: The BR futures price first rose and then fell. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the trading of butadiene is not bad. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish in the medium - term. Although the short - term rise is fast and needs adjustment, the mid - term trend is still bullish [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Lack of upward momentum before the holiday. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, textile factories are shutting down for holidays. Before the holiday, there is no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to be range - bound. After the holiday, the traditional peak season will boost the cotton price. In the long - term, the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Brazil still has export potential, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - and long - term. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. Major producing countries are expected to increase production. Brazil's production is coming to an end, but its export potential is large. The production in the Northern Hemisphere is optimistic. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures are fluctuating independently. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and both the terminal and downstream are in a low - demand state. After the holiday, the seasonal recovery of demand will bring marginal benefits. The valuation of pulp futures is not high, and the downward space is limited. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to wait and see during the Spring Festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: Trading is coming to an end, and double - glued paper is trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The double - glued paper market has entered a pre - holiday stagnant state. Paper mills' production is basically stable, and some production lines have maintenance plans. After the holiday, the consumption recovery rhythm depends on the resumption of work of downstream printing factories, and there may be more price - cutting phenomena. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [18][19]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Trading is light, and the market is range - bound. - **Logic**: Before the holiday, the log market is entering a shutdown stage, and trading is light. The spot price is relatively stable, and the market is range - bound. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, there is still pressure from weak future demand and expected supply increase. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 830 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term 03 contract [21][22]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring The report only lists the names of varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3. CITIC Futures Commodity Index (February 10, 2026) - **Composite Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04%. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 10, 2026, is 927.60, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.66%, and a decline of 0.58% since the beginning of the year [182][183][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. Energy products all rose, precious metals were mixed, agricultural and sideline products mostly increased, shipping futures declined, black commodities mostly fell, new energy materials mostly dropped, and chemical products were mixed [1][2]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total volume with a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was good, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [2]. - In China, the fundamental changes this week were limited. The boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 was not significant yet, but policy expectations were strengthening. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, with both supply and demand decreasing marginally [2]. - For assets, domestic equity markets can get upward support from policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising under industrial logic, and investors can buy on dips after market volatility reduces. Black commodities are generally volatile, and crude oil may rise due to geopolitical support but with high uncertainty, so it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Today's Market - Base metals led the gains, with Shanghai tin up 3.33%. Energy products all rose, with crude oil up 2.17%. Precious metals were mixed, with Shanghai silver up 1.97%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly increased, with corn up 0.44%. Shipping futures declined, with the container shipping index (European line) down 4.57%. Black commodities mostly fell, with coke down 1.71%. New energy materials mostly dropped, with industrial silicon down 1.53%. Chemical products were mixed, with styrene down 0.98%. Oils and fats mostly declined, with palm oil down 0.69%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.44% [2] 3.2 Overseas Macro - The US economy shows a weak - stable total volume and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was good, and the positive feedback from the looser liquidity since H2 2025 may have gradually affected the manufacturing industry. However, the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [2] 3.3 Domestic Macro - The fundamental changes this week were limited. The boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals was not significant yet, but policy expectations were strengthening. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, with both supply and demand decreasing marginally. The expectation of policy support for a "good start" in Q1 is rising, and the policy intention to stabilize investment since Q4 2025 may continue into Q1 2026 [2] 3.4 Asset Views - Domestic equity markets can be supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are promising under industrial logic, and investors can buy on dips after market volatility reduces. Black commodities are generally volatile, and crude oil may rise due to geopolitical support but with high uncertainty, so it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2] 3.5 Market Conditions of Different Sectors - **Finance**: The market sentiment is warm. Stock index futures are expected to rebound following the external market, stock index options are volatile, treasury bond futures are volatile, and gold and silver are in a stage of price adjustment and are volatile [6] - **Shipping**: Before the Spring Festival, the decline in freight rates slowed down. The three major alliance shipping companies issued a price increase notice for the European line in March. The container shipping European line is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6] - **Black Building Materials**: The current situation and expectations are not good, and the market still faces pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile [6] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous market has warmed up, but inventories have accumulated significantly. Base metals have stopped falling and are volatile. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals are expected to be volatile or volatile and slightly stronger [6] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The national thermal coal has generally reduced inventories, and the chemical industry continues to be volatile. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and other products are all expected to be volatile [6][7] - **Agriculture**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most agricultural products are volatile. Grains, oils, livestock, and other products are expected to be volatile or volatile and slightly weaker [7] 3.6 Financial Market Price and Change Data - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] - Treasury bond futures: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index and the US dollar intermediate price had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield, 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread, and 10 - year break - even inflation rate had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] 3.7 Industry Index Price and Change Data - The prices and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes of various industries in the CITIC Industry Index, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, commerce and retail, non - ferrous metals, etc., are provided [11][12] 3.8 Overseas Commodity Price and Change Data - The prices and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes of overseas commodities such as energy (NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent oil, etc.), precious metals (COMEX gold, COMEX silver), non - ferrous metals (LME copper, LME aluminum, etc.), and agricultural products (CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, etc.) are provided [13][15] 3.9 Domestic Commodity Price and Change Data - The prices and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes of domestic commodities in various sectors such as shipping (container shipping European line), precious metals (gold, silver), non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum), black building materials (rebar, hot - rolled coil), energy and chemicals (crude oil, fuel oil), and agriculture (soybeans, corn) are provided [16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The China - Southeast Asia shipping route is the world's largest trade corridor, showing resilience in trade tensions. The Southeast Asian container shipping market has strong growth momentum driven by economic growth and industrial transfer [8][33]. - In 2025, the North Asia - Southeast Asia route had the highest capacity share and the fastest growth rate among intra - Asia trades. However, future capacity growth may be constrained by the high average age and low orderbook of feeder vessels [26][34]. - Southeast Asian shipping routes generally have lower freight rate volatility than long - haul routes, with certain correlations to Northern Europe rates. New contracts listed by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange provide more options for hedging [2][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation of the Southeast Asia Container Shipping Market - The China - Southeast Asia route is the world's largest trade corridor. In 2025, the trade value between China and ASEAN reached 1,055.87 billion USD, up 7.3% year - on - year. Asian intra - regional routes are the world's largest container shipping market. From January to October 2025, the cargo volume in this regional market reached 41.234 million TEUs, accounting for 25.9% of the global total, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.1% [8]. - Due to short shipping distances, the China - Southeast Asia route is highly competitive, with carriers including global giants and regional specialists. Major routes include services from China to Singapore/Malaysia, Thailand/Vietnam, and Indonesia [11]. - Freight rates on Southeast Asian routes generally have lower volatility than long - haul routes, with seasonal patterns. Rates usually retreat from highs in January and February, rebound in early March, and are driven up in mid - April by the Songkran Festival. In 2025, due to tariff - driven front - running, rates surged prematurely between March and May, fell during the traditional peak period (June - August), hit a floor in the August - September off - season, and rebounded in October [12][13]. 3.2 Demand in Southeast Asian Shipping Market - The six major economies of ASEAN (Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam) have shown economic resilience, with a three - year compound GDP growth rate of 3% in 2024, surpassing the overall GDP growth rate of Asia by 0.3 percentage points [16]. - The trade war between China and the United States has led to a global supply chain restructuring, and Southeast Asia has become an important destination for industrial transfer. From January to November 2025, China's exports to five ASEAN countries reached 492.33 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. By October 2025, the container cargo volume in the Asian market reached 41.234 million TEUs, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.3% [20]. - Among the commodities transported by general cargo containers, Vietnam accounts for the highest proportion (31.5%) of China's exports to the five ASEAN countries. In 2025, the total value of China's exports of 33 categories of commodities to the five ASEAN countries reached US$202.48 billion [24]. 3.3 Southeast Asian market capacity and competition landscape - In 2025, the North Asia - Southeast Asia route had the highest capacity share (56.1%) and the fastest growth rate (19.1% year - on - year) among all intra - Asia trades. By the end of 2025, the total capacity deployed by carriers within the intra - Asia market reached 3.415 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [26]. - Regional carriers such as Wan Hai, SITC, and TS Lines maintain a strong presence in the intra - Asia market. They focus on strategic layouts within Southeast Asian feeder routes and offer differentiated services, serving as essential supplements to regional market coverage [30]. 3.4 Outlook - From a demand perspective, the Southeast Asian market shows diversified and high - growth characteristics in importing Chinese goods, driven by economic growth and industrial transfer dividends [33]. - Future capacity growth may be constrained by the high average age and low orderbook of feeder vessels. - Southeast Asian routes typically have lower freight rate volatility than long - haul routes, with a 75.8% correlation between rates from China to Singapore and Malaysia and Northern Europe rates, and a 51.7% correlation for Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 listed on February 10th provide more options for hedging [35].

重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明:除非另有说明、中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货）拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经 授权,不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性 以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 苯乙烯利润回升,海外多套装置重启 2026/02/10 投资咨询业务资格: 册 尹伊君 证监许可【2012】669号 究 从业资格号:F03107980 投资咨询号: Z0021451 员 最新数据: 国内苯乙烯开工略升。根据隆众,截至2026年2月5日,国内苯乙烯开工率69.96%,环比+0.68pct,同比- 6.67pct。周度产量35.09万吨,较上期增0.34万吨。本周华东一套苯乙烯装置重启产出但时间有限,华南提 负荷装置影响时间增加,周内无装置降负、停车,整体产出小幅增量。 近期海外多套装置重启,日本NSSM装置存检修计划。根 ...

Interpreting DCE Iron Ore Brand & Premium Changes | 徐 柯 Xu Ke | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03123846 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0019914 | | --- | --- | | 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 | 2026/02/09 Event 事件点评 Recently, DCE released an announcement with the following adjustments: 1. Removal of Yangdi Fines and Bengang Concentrate from the list of deliverable brands. . Adjustment of premiumdiscount levels: premium for Carajas Fines reduced from 15 yuantome to 5 yuantome ; premium/discount for IOC6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side expectations are fluctuating, and new energy metals will continue to experience wide fluctuations. In the short to medium term, due to the repeated supply-side expectations, new energy metals will maintain wide fluctuations. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still on the rise, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. - For industrial silicon, there is still long-term overcapacity pressure, and the silicon price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, due to the fluctuating policy expectations, the polysilicon price will experience wide fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, with weak supply and demand drivers, the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of February 9, the price of oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang was 8,700 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,850 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Information**: As of last week, the domestic inventory was 422,850 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%; among them, the market inventory was 187,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the factory inventory was 235,850 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% [7]. - **Production Information**: In January, the industrial silicon output was 320,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - **Export Information**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest region during the dry season continued to decline. Currently, Sichuan has basically stopped production, and the operation in Yunnan has dropped to a low level. In addition, large northwest factories implemented production cuts at the end of January, and the domestic industrial silicon supply in February is expected to further decrease, alleviating the short-term supply pressure. However, in the long term, the operation of northwest silicon factories is expected to resume, and the operation in the southwest region will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long-term overcapacity pressure. On the demand side, polysilicon has a large inventory consumption pressure, and some silicon material factories have further shut down for maintenance, resulting in a continuously weak demand for industrial silicon; organic silicon enterprises have cut production to support prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is also relatively weak; the demand for industrial silicon in the aluminum alloy industry remains stable. Overall, after the large factories cut production, the supply-demand balance in February is expected to improve. However, in the medium to long term, the silicon price is still under pressure, as the supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large and the demand is weak, and there is still overcapacity pressure in the industry [7]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the current market sentiment is fluctuating. It is believed that the silicon price will show a fluctuating trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On February 9, the average transaction price of N-type dense material was 57.5 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/kg [7]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: On February 9, the latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,610 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 0 lots [7]. - **Export and Import Information**: In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest region has gradually decreased, and the current polysilicon output is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to contract. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon remains weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is also rising simultaneously. However, considering that the Ministry of Finance announced on its official website that the photovoltaic export tax rebate will be cancelled starting from April 1, 2026, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic products in the first quarter in China, which will boost the short-term demand for polysilicon. Overall, the weak demand is dragging down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still expected to continue to contract, the polysilicon supply and demand are expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant policies of polysilicon [8]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand is dragging down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still contracting, it is believed that the polysilicon price may show a wide fluctuating trend [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Position Information**: On February 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total position of the lithium carbonate contracts increased by 8,687 lots to 645,262 lots [9]. - **Spot Price and Warehouse Receipt Information**: On February 9, the morning spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the morning price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 134,000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 136,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The warehouse receipts on that day increased by 820 lots to 34,597 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but there is a marginal weakening, and sentiment has a greater impact on the price. In January, the performance of new energy vehicles was poor due to the overdraft phenomenon, but there was also maintenance on the supply side, and the overall supply and demand remained in a tight balance. In February, the supply and demand sides may continue to face production cuts due to maintenance by some enterprises. After the price correction, the downstream is actively stocking up. Before the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo mine, it is expected that the tight balance will still be maintained in February, and the social inventory will not significantly accumulate. However, close attention should be paid to the negative feedback of energy storage and the vehicle end on the price increase, and the rhythm of supply expansion should also be noted, as there is an expectation of concentrated supply expansion in the second quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,374.89, an increase of 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2,710.51, an increase of 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2,278.80, an increase of 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1,404.35, an increase of 0.58% [47]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On February 9, 2026, the new energy commodity index was 503.20, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a decrease of 3.38% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 8.04% in the past month, and a decrease of 1.27% since the beginning of the year [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - **Information**: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - **Information**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - **Price**: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - **Information**: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - **Logic**: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - **Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - **Logic**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - **Information**: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log market is weak. - **Logic**: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Alumina: Oscillating [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [7][9] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating with an upward bias [10] - Zinc: Oscillating [11] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating with an upward bias [15] - Stainless steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [16] - Tin: Oscillating with an upward bias [18] 2. Core View of the Report With the weakening of the trading of the hawkish expectations of Wash, the macro - level expectations have improved. The raw material supply remains tight, and there are still potential disruptions in the smelting process, providing strong support on the supply side. Although the current supply - demand situation is relatively loose, there is an expectation of tightening in the medium term. Overall, copper, aluminum, tin and other metals are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the medium term, and basic metals are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term. It is advisable to conduct short - term long trades on copper, aluminum and tin considering the approaching Spring Festival [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: On February 9, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.13 dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 dollars/dry ton. China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system [7]. - Main logic: The US dollar index has risen, and the risk appetite of pre - holiday funds has declined. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit has decreased, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, pressuring the upward movement of copper prices [7]. - Outlook: The supply constraints of copper still exist. Although there is a short - term adjustment, the long - term upward trend remains. It is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On February 9, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2614.6 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.2 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipts were 242,626 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24,626 tons [7]. - Main logic: The macro sentiment has magnified the market fluctuations. The spot average price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the cost reduction is weakening the price support. The market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the expectation of production reduction is increasing. It is expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On February 9, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,416 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 239 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 165 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in mainstream consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also increased. The demand in the South China building materials market has declined, while the East China industrial materials market is relatively stable, and the order volume of photovoltaic profiles has increased [7][8]. - Main logic: The US economic data is weak, and the nomination of Wash as the next Fed chairman has reduced the short - term risk appetite, but the macro - level expectations are expected to be positive in the future. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas Indonesian project is progressing as expected, but there are still constraints on medium - term supply expansion. The weekly initial production start - up rate has decreased, and the high price is suppressing demand. The social inventory is accumulating. Overall, the aluminum price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, the positive macro - level expectations and the tight supply - demand situation are expected to keep the aluminum price oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply is expected to be in short supply, and the price center is expected to rise [9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On February 9, ADC12 was reported at 23,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,416 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 239 yuan/ton [13]. - Main logic: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the tax - refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict supply. The demand - side subsidy has declined, and the high price is suppressing downstream demand. The social inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. - Outlook: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the cost support is strengthened, and the supply may be reduced due to policy changes. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On February 9, the premiums of Shanghai 0 zinc, Guangdong 0 zinc, and Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract were 25 yuan/ton, - 55 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. As of February 9, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 128,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9,800 tons [10][11]. - Main logic: The economic data is generally positive, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. The processing fee of zinc ore has declined more slowly, and the import of zinc ore has increased. The supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand growth is limited, so the zinc price may decline [11]. - Outlook: The supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory will continue to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On February 9, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in Henan was - 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 49,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 40,773 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,968 tons [12][14]. - Main logic: The spot premium has increased slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has remained stable. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has increased slightly. The production of recycled lead has decreased slightly. The orders of electric bicycles have weakened, and the orders of automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined [14]. - Outlook: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the production of lead ingots remains high. The demand for lead ingots has weakened, but the cost of waste batteries remains high. The lead price is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On February 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel were 51,721 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 447 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,072 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 210 tons. The market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,025 - 1,050 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 6th [14][15]. - Main logic: The domestic production of electrolytic nickel has increased, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia has remained high. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand situation is in surplus. Indonesia plans to revise the pricing method of domestic nickel ore trade and reduce the nickel ore quota in 2026, which has adjusted the market's expectations for nickel cost and balance [15]. - Outlook: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in February. The LME inventory is high, which suppresses the price. If the actual nickel ore quota in Indonesia is low, the expectation of nickel surplus in 2026 will decline. The nickel price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: On February 9, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 53,523 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,723 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 365 yuan/ton to the main stainless steel contract. The market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,025 - 1,050 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 6th [16]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium are stable, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel decreased in December, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair. The terminal demand is still cautious. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory may face pressure during the off - season [16]. - Outlook: The production schedule in January may increase slightly, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is expected to be weak during the off - season. However, considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, the stainless steel price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [16]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On February 9, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 45 tons to 7,085 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons to 6,716 tons; the Shanghai tin positions increased by 3,951 lots to 87,056 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 356,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 21,600 yuan/ton [18]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in Wabang may be alleviated, but the supply in Indonesia is still restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The processing fee of tin concentrate has increased, indicating increased financial pressure on some smelters. The demand for tin in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt [18]. - Outlook: The supply risk is high. In the medium - to long - term, the tin price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [18]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On February 9, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2,374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2,710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index was 2,278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1,404.35, up 0.58% [142]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 9, 2026, was 2,681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [143].