Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver for gold prices. US inflation and fundamental data are in line with this trend, causing gold prices to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, gold will still benefit from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [1][3]. - Although the continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed the elasticity of silver prices, as the performance of US assets diverges and the market's trading of a soft landing continues to strengthen, silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver. The 2 - year US Treasury bond has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the quarterly FOMC meeting on the subsequent path. The central bank's gold - buying behavior continues, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced, which is favorable for gold allocation. In the long - term, gold benefits from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. - **Silver**: The continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed silver's elasticity. However, as the US recession expectation weakens, the obstacle to silver's elasticity is removed. Silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2 Outlook Next week, focus on the FOMC meeting guidance and US retail data. The weekly range for spot London gold is [3500, 3800], and for spot London silver is [39, 45] [3]. 3.3 Key Information - China and the US delegations are holding talks in Madrid to resolve trade tensions, and the US and China are close to reaching an agreement on TikTok [2]. - A drone invaded Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Romania to scramble fighter jets [2]. - The Fed will hold a policy meeting on September 16 - 17. There are uncertainties regarding the attendance list due to a lawsuit to dismiss a Fed governor and a pending Senate approval for a new appointment [2]. 3.4 Index Information - On September 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2239.53, up 0.50%; the commodity 20 index is 2507.34, up 0.37%; the industrial products index is 2254.68, up 0.90% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 15, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.27%, a 5 - day increase of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 7.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.79% [48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report Both domestic and overseas styrene开工 have declined, with low domestic styrene profits and additional overseas device maintenance [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Domestic Situation**: As of September 11, 2025, the domestic styrene开工 rate was 74.98%, a -4.76 pct week - on - week decrease and a +5.6 pct year - on - year increase. Weekly production was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons from the previous period. As of September 15, domestic non - integrated styrene profit was - 307 yuan/ton, at a low level [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: As of September 15, 2025, overseas styrene开工 was 81.8%, a -1.9 pct week - on - week decrease and a -0.1 pct year - on - year decrease, at a relatively low level in the past five years. There were new device maintenance in Malaysia and Belgium [2]. - **Global Situation**: As of September 15, 2025, global styrene开工 was 78.5%, a -3.3 pct week - on - week decrease and a +2.33 pct year - on - year increase, at a neutral level [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints On September 15, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities rose, with coke and coking coal leading the gains. The report also provides an analysis of the supply, demand, and inventory of coke, coking coal, and soybean meal, as well as a summary of macro news [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On September 15, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities rose, with coke and coking coal leading the gains. The top three gainers in China's commodity futures were coke, coking coal, and egg, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, rapeseed meal, and SCFIS(Europe). In China's financial futures, equity indices fell, with IC decreasing by 0.5%, and CGB futures gained ground, with TL climbing 0.2% [11][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Coke**: On September 15, coke increased by 4.6% to 1688.5 yuan/ton. After the second round of price declines, the spot price is expected to stabilize temporarily, and the futures market will remain volatile. The supply is expected to be loose with the second - round price cuts starting, and future growth is limited. The demand is supported by the recovery of steel mills' production, and the inventory situation shows that the middle and lower reaches purchase on demand [18][22]. - **Coking Coal**: On September 15, coking coal increased by 4.4% to 1187.5 yuan/ton. After the military parade, both supply and demand recovered rapidly, but the second - round of coke price cuts has started, leading to cautious spot transactions. The market is expected to operate in a volatile and strong - biased manner in the short term due to factors such as anti - involution and over - production inspections [25][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: On September 15, soybean meal decreased by 1.5% to 3042 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal decreased by 2.0% to 2504 yuan/ton. Macroeconomic expectations are bullish, but there is still room for a downward revision in U.S. soybean yield per unit area, and the progress of soybean sowing in South America is uncertain. Domestically, soybean meal inventories at oil mills have continued to rise, and physical inventories at feed enterprises have also increased slightly. The rigid demand for soybean meal may remain stable or increase moderately [34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MFA responded to the media report about China's invitation to Trump for a visit to China, stating that the communication channels between China and the U.S. are unimpeded and it has no information to provide regarding the specific issue [39][40]. - NVIDIA violated the Anti - Monopoly Law, and SAMR decided to conduct further investigation [39][40]. - From January to August 2025, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year - on - year, while private fixed - asset investment dropped by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month [39][40]. - In August, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% in real terms year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. From January to August, it rose by 6.2% year - on - year [39][40]. - From January to August, China's national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. In August, the sales prices of new and second - hand commercial housing in different - tier cities showed various trends [39][40]. - In August, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and from January to August, it grew by 4.6% year - on - year [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For overseas markets, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18. The market expects a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. US inflation data and the Fed's personnel issues boost the rate - cut expectation [8]. - Domestically, observe the progress of physical work in Q4 and changes in financial market liquidity. Special bond issuance supports infrastructure demand, but there are risks of more funds used for debt reduction. The demand pulse for commodity consumption may be postponed to the end of Q4. Investors should also focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [8]. - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for risk assets. Domestically, as the process of household deposit transfer indicates a rising risk preference, investors are recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, pay attention to the Q4 allocation opportunities of Chinese bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18 is crucial. Market expects rate cuts due to inflation data and personnel issues [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: Special bond issuance supports infrastructure, but there are risks of more funds for debt reduction. The demand for commodity consumption may be postponed. Investors should focus on household deposit transfer and inflation [8]. - **Asset Views**: Improvements in US dollar liquidity benefit risk assets. Domestically, focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets and Q4 Chinese bond allocation opportunities [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to the attenuation of incremental funds [10]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to potential deterioration of option market liquidity [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with concerns about tariff, supply, and monetary policy surprises [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the rate of freight decline. Short - term judgment is oscillation as the peak season fades and there is no upward driving force [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Steel mill profits shrink, and supply - demand is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [10]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production is high, and port inventory slightly increases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors [10]. - **Coke**: Supply increases significantly, and the second - round price cut starts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coking cost, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market is cautious. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand tends to be loose, and the market is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on raw material cost and steel procurement [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is limited upward driving force. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on cost price and overseas quotes [10]. - **Glass**: Supply slightly increases, and expectations are still volatile. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on spot sales [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream inventory is decreasing. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply of recycled copper is tight, and copper prices are strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [10]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [10]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is accumulating, and aluminum prices are falling. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [10]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is accumulating, and zinc prices are weak. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [10]. - **Lead**: Social inventory slightly decreases, and lead prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [10]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory increases significantly, and nickel prices fluctuate widely. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are slightly accumulating, and the market is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [10]. - **Tin**: Inventory in two markets slightly increases, and tin prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand improvement [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, and silicon prices are capped. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The peak - season supply - demand gap is less than expected, and prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances exist. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [13]. - **LPG**: Valuation has been repaired, and focus on cost - end guidance. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil and overseas propane costs [13]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices are below 3500. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [13]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Production increase is disturbed by geopolitics, and prices first fall then rise. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on geopolitics and crude oil prices [13]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in wide - range oscillations. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on crude oil prices [13]. - **Methanol**: There is a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [13]. - **Urea**: Returns to fundamentals and is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on export and market sentiment [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on coal, oil prices, port inventory, and device commissioning [13]. - **PX**: Fundamental drivers are limited, and prices follow costs. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and demand [13]. - **PTA**: Low inventory - holding willingness and sufficient spot liquidity suppress basis. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil, macro, and demand [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is average, and processing fees are recovering. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on downstream yarn - mill purchases and demand [13]. - **Bottle Chip**: Demand is in the off - season. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [13]. - **Propylene**: Reduction in propane and PL commodity volume boosts prices. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic macro [13]. - **PP**: May find support near previous lows. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment improves, and focus on policy details. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [13]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on expectations, cost, and supply [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices are falling. Short - term judgment is cautious decline, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Focus on the sustainability of the upward trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Prices fall after China - US - Spain talks. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [13]. - **Corn/Starch**: Imported corn increases, and futures prices fall. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand, macro, and weather [13]. - **Pig**: Pig supply is abundant, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [13]. - **Rubber**: Short - term support is strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Continues the oscillatory trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are well - supported, and focus on new - cotton purchases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand and inventory [13]. - **Sugar**: The short - term downward space is limited, and prices rebound. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on imports [13]. - **Pulp**: Rebounds after continuous decline, and it's better to wait and see. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [13]. - **Offset Paper**: Lacks upward and downward drivers, and prices oscillate around the listing price. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [13]. - **Log**: New warehouse receipts are registered, and prices oscillate around 800. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on shipment and dispatch volumes [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market shows a structural trend, with a suggestion to hold IM long positions in stock index futures, maintain short - volatility strategies in stock index options, and be cautious about the long - end of the bond market in bond futures [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Structural trend, with a suggestion to observe more and act less. Yesterday, the A - share market showed a structural trend, with the total A - share index basically flat and trading volume dropping to around 2.3 trillion. The new energy and automotive sectors led the gains, while communications, banking, and defense were relatively weak. In the short - term, the outlook is positive due to signs of institutional capital entry, improved market confidence, and positive speculation sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [3][9]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contract basis points were - 5.26, - 0.22, - 23.16, - 46.97 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 6.46, - 0.28, - 15.41, - 16.89 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 8.0, - 0.4, 64.0, 67.6 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.8, 0.0, 13.2, 0.8 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM changed by - 11030, - 1517, - 18126, - 15462 lots respectively [9]. Stock Index Options - **View**: During the adjustment, there is differentiation, and it is recommended to maintain short - volatility strategies. The market is in an adjustment phase with internal differentiation. From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the put - to - call ratio in the ChiNext and STAR Market is high, while dividend - related products like 50ETF are far from their previous highs. In terms of volatility, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were volatile, while other products rose slightly. It is recommended to continue short - volatility strategies such as covered calls and straddles [4][9]. - **Data**: The trading volume of the options market was 890.2 million yuan, a 28.81% decrease from the previous trading day [9]. Bond Futures - **View**: Be cautious about the long - end of the bond market. Yesterday, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net open - market injection of 8.85 billion yuan. However, during the tax - payment period, inter - bank market interest rates rose slightly. The August consumption and fixed - asset investment growth data were lower than expected, which is positive for the bond market, but the long - end is still affected by policy expectations and risk appetite. In the short - term, the central bank will support the short - end, and there may be long - end arbitrage and curve - steepening opportunities [5][10][11]. - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts were 94600, 54025, 24122, 111024 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 9200, - 17431, - 10117, - 39156 lots. The positions were 211649, 117782, 66544, 141755 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of 3776, - 952, 1400, - 554 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - product spreads, and basis points also had corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists economic data announcements for the current week, including China's August social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year rate, industrial added - value year - on - year rate, Eurozone's September ZEW economic sentiment index, US August retail sales month - on - month rate, and other data [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice on deepening the reform of cross - border investment and financing foreign exchange management, including canceling pre - investment fee registration, simplifying re - investment registration, and expanding cross - border financing convenience [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but specific data details are not fully provided [14][18][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [3][7] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][11] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12][13] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [13][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][17] - MEG: Oscillating [17][19] - Short fiber: Oscillating [19][20] - Bottle chip: Oscillating [20][21] - Methanol: Oscillating [23][26] - Urea: Oscillating weakly [24] - LLDPE: Oscillating [27] - PP: Oscillating [28][29] - PL: Oscillating [29] - PVC: Oscillating [31] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [31][32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors have led to a slight increase in oil prices, and domestic macroeconomic factors have boosted the prices of chemical products. The future trend depends on whether there are actual supply reduction policies [1][2][3]. - The prices of chemical products have been lifted by macro - sentiment, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be actual supply reduction in the later stage [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Crude oil**: The port attacked on September 12 has resumed operation, but refineries are still frequently attacked, and the international diesel market supply is tightening. Under the background of OPEC + accelerating production increase, the supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. - **Asphalt**: The 3500 position of options has concentrated holdings, and the battle between bulls and bears is fierce. The high valuation of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Russian fuel oil exports have reached a record high, and the demand outlook has deteriorated. Geopolitical upgrades have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [11]. - **PX**: Supply has reached a high level. In the short term, it oscillates following costs and sentiment. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6600 [12]. - **PTA**: The return of maintenance devices has hindered the upward expectation of polyester load. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 [12][13]. - **Pure benzene**: Affected by styrene devices and macro factors, it rose on the day. If styrene maintenance occurs in September - October, the pattern will return to oversupply [13][15]. - **Styrene**: Affected by macro and device factors, it rebounded. In the short term, it may oscillate with a small rebound, but the inventory suppresses the increase [15][17]. - **MEG**: The port has a small inventory build - up, and it is difficult to see continuous build - up in the month. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 [17][19]. - **Short fiber**: It fluctuates following costs, and the demand is average. In the short term, it oscillates and sorts [19][20]. - **Bottle chip**: It has limited driving forces and follows passively. It oscillates, and the absolute value follows raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near and far months. The futures price oscillates. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [23]. - **Urea**: Affected by spot quotes, the futures rebounded. The fundamentals are still loosely supplied, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **LLDPE**: Supported by the previous low and downstream replenishment before festivals, it oscillates in the short term. The downward rhythm of oil price depends on geopolitical risks and overseas inventory accumulation [27]. - **PP**: Slightly rebounded due to increased maintenance and rising oil prices. It oscillates in the short term [28][29]. - **PL**: Supported by PDH maintenance, it oscillates in the short term [29]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, it oscillates. The pressure comes from long - term fundamentals, and the support comes from rising dynamic costs and improved market sentiment [31]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures is cautiously weak. The downward space is limited considering the alumina production expectation in the far - month [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.41, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.75, 0.54), etc. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis, change values, and warehouse receipt numbers, like asphalt (basis: 127, - 35; warehouse receipts: 67360) [34] - **Inter - variety spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, for example, 1 - month PP - 3MA: - 222, 2 [36] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is mentioned, no detailed and summarizable data or analysis is provided in the given text.

Report Summary Report Title Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 37, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the issuance of new special bonds reached 131.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 114 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 77.6% [4]. - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 14.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 149.7 billion yuan [4]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 14.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 14.7 billion yuan [7]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 192.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 156.1 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 77.9% [10]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 415.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 245.8 billion yuan [13]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 608.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 401.8 billion yuan. As of September 14, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 78.2% [16]. - As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 79.4%, and the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 78.5% [21]. Data Details Special Bonds - New special bond issuance this week: 131.9 billion yuan, up 114 billion yuan week - on - week [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.6% [4]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 149.7 billion yuan [4]. General Bonds - New general bond issuance this week: 14.7 billion yuan, up 14.7 billion yuan week - on - week [7]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 14.7 billion yuan [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 79.4% [21]. Local Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 192.8 billion yuan, up 156.1 billion yuan week - on - week [10]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.9% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 415.6 billion yuan, up 245.8 billion yuan week - on - week [13]. - Net financing progress as of September 14: 78.5% [21]. Government Bonds - Net financing this week: 608.4 billion yuan, up 401.8 billion yuan week - on - week [16]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of September 14: 78.2% [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints France is a developed industrial country with a strong industrial base in sectors such as steel, automotive, and construction, as well as leading industries in aerospace, nuclear energy, and ocean development. It is also a major agricultural producer and exporter in the EU. However, France has limited natural resources and relies heavily on imports for energy and industrial raw materials. The country's energy mix is dominated by nuclear power, and it has been actively involved in international trade and investment [1][2][10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 National Overview - **Geographical Location**: France, the largest country in the EU by area, is located in Western Europe, with a hexagonal mainland bordering multiple countries and facing four major seas. It has diverse climates, including temperate maritime, Mediterranean, and continental [7]. - **Economic Overview**: In 2024, France's GDP was €2.91 trillion, with a 1.1% year - on - year increase and an inflation rate of 1.3%. The industrial value - added was €3565 billion, and the agricultural value - added was €380 billion. It is highly dependent on imports for minerals and energy, with nuclear power accounting for about 65% of electricity in 2024. It has a high - welfare system and is an attractive destination for foreign investment [10][11][12]. - **Historical and Political Situation**: France has a long history, with the current Fifth Republic established in 1958. The president has significant powers, and the country has a bicameral parliament. There are multiple political parties with different policy stances [14][15][16]. 3.2 Oil and Other Liquids - As of January 1, 2023, France's proven oil reserves were 83 million barrels. It banned oil and gas production and exploration until 2040, leading to a continuous decline in production. In 2022, its oil consumption was 1.5 million barrels per day, showing a downward trend since 2003 - 2004. Worker strikes in refineries have caused shortages of petroleum products [20][22]. 3.3 Natural Gas - As of January 1, 2023, France's proven natural gas reserves were 590 Bcf. It has almost no dry natural gas production and depends entirely on imports. In 2022, consumption decreased due to high winter temperatures and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. GRTgaz and EDF play important roles in gas distribution and supply [24]. 3.4 Coal - France has no proven coal reserves and does not produce coal, relying entirely on imports. Due to the European energy crisis in 2022, two coal - fired power plants were temporarily restarted and their operation was extended to 2024 [28]. 3.5 Electricity - In 2021, France had a power generation of 530 TWh, an installed capacity of 142 GW, and was one of the largest power - surplus countries. Nuclear power accounted for 68% of electricity generation, with an installed capacity of 61 GW, second only to the US. The Flamanville EPR nuclear reactor started operation in 2024. EDF and its subsidiaries dominate the power market [30][33]. 3.6 Energy Trade - **Oil and Other Liquids**: In 2022, France imported over 822,000 barrels per day of oil and other liquids, reversing a downward trend since 2017. Its oil product exports have been declining since 2011. It mainly imports from European neighbors and Russia, and refinery strikes have increased its dependence on imports [34][36]. - **Natural Gas**: In 2021, France imported 1.6 Tcf and exported 188.9 Bcf of natural gas. In 2022, gas flow increased by 32% due to a 203% surge in LNG imports. It mainly imports from Norway and has started re - exporting to neighboring countries [38]. - **Electricity**: In 2021, France was the world's largest net power exporter, with exports mainly going to Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain [41].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are healthy during the peak season, with limited supply increments and strong demand support. The price bottom of coal and coke has strong support, and one can seize the upward market during the peak - season restocking and with the cooperation of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the rebound height of coking coal production and the decline amplitude of molten iron production at the end of the peak season [2][3] - **Summary by Related Content** - **Market Performance**: Today, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend from the night session last Friday. The main coking coal contract closed at 1,187.5 yuan/ton, and the main coke contract approached 1,700 yuan/ton during the session, both rising more than 4% [1] - **Supply - demand Analysis** - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mine production has returned to the previous level with a stable overall tone. Although imported coal supplements domestic supply, the demand is relatively strong, the upstream inventory of coking coal is at a low level this year, and the supply pressure is relatively light [2] - **Coke**: Although the second round of price cuts for coke has started, in the second - half of the year's peak season, after the military parade, molten iron production has returned to a high level, coke production has reached a relatively high level since July, and with the approaching National Day holiday, downstream restocking demand can still be expected, so the demand support is also strong [2] - **News and Policy Impact** - The central first ecological and environmental protection inspection team conducted the third - round inspection in Shanxi Province and required strict implementation of coal total - volume control and strengthening of air - pollution control, which boosted the market's anti - involution sentiment and the futures upward trend [2] - Overseas, the Fed meeting is approaching with strong market expectations of interest - rate cuts, which may heat up the sentiment in the domestic commodity market. Domestically, there are still expectations of anti - involution. If the Fourth Plenary Session in October further strengthens relevant policies, it may have a greater impact on the futures [2]