Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices dropped and then rebounded on Tuesday evening, reaching a high of $3380 per ounce, mainly influenced by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI and Trump's remarks about the Fed and Indian tariffs [1][3]. - With the phased conclusion of trade negotiation results, the negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been phased out. The emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken and become a slow - variable later. Attention should be paid to the negative verification of the fundamentals after large - scale implementation [6]. - With the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the reversal of the US stock market, the short - term trading of the US economic resilience may end. The market will return to the logic of the weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, and the sentiment in the gold market will turn positive [6]. - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change. The accelerating pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, which is expected to increase price elasticity [6]. - The long - term bull market trend of gold remains unchanged. The continued slowdown of the US fundamentals under the tariff path and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the foundation for the long - term bull market [6]. - The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [36, 40] [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Key Information - Trump said he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase of Russian oil. India responded that it would take measures to safeguard its interests and criticized Trump's actions as "unjustified" [2]. - Trump said he would soon announce a short - term replacement for Fed Governor Kugler's resignation and the next Fed Chairman [2]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believed there was room for a rate hike once trade frictions caused by US tariffs eased [2]. - On August 5, US economic data showed that the July ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5; the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, slightly higher than the expected 55.2. The trade deficit in June narrowed to $60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices were affected by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI, Trump's remarks about the Fed (including soon announcing a new Fed Chairman, criticizing Powell for "cutting interest rates too late") and Indian tariffs (raising tariffs on Indian goods in 24 hours, and planning new tariff measures on drugs and chips in the next week with drug tariffs possibly reaching up to 250% in stages) [1][3]. - The three factors of economic fundamentals, Fed independence, and economic and trade prospects resonated, causing gold to rebound quickly from $3350 to above $3380 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most rated as "oscillating". The rated varieties include steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9][10][11][13][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market has strong supply contraction expectations and continues to show a relatively strong trend. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly and inventory pressure is not high, factors such as upcoming production restrictions and potential macro - positive news may drive price increases. After the market rallies to a high level, volatility increases, and it is recommended to wait and avoid risks. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][6] 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Steel mill profitability increased, but iron water production decreased in some areas due to rainfall. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, berthing areas, and factories decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction, the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [2] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Coking Coal**: Overall supply is temporarily stable. Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu port reached a high this year. Coke production is stable, and coking coal demand is strong. Although the spot market sentiment has cooled, upstream mines are still reducing inventory. Future attention should be paid to regulatory policies, mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [2] - **Coke**: The price has been continuously raised, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been strengthened. The manganese ore market is in a wait - and - see state, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is resilient, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate [3] Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened due to the continuous increase in coke prices. The downstream demand is resilient, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production may increase rapidly, and downstream demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Glass - In the off - season, demand declines, deep - processing orders decrease, and inventory days increase. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the market is mainly affected by sentiment. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [3][11] Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After a rapid short - term price decline, it is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [6][11] Steel - Affected by coking coal supply disturbances, the futures market is strong. Spot trading is average, and inventory is accumulating. With low inventory and potential production restrictions, the fundamentals may improve, and the price is likely to rise. Future focus should be on production restrictions and terminal demand [7] Scrap Steel - Steel mill arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Low oil prices may facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and there is a divergence between coal and crude oil. The supply of chemical products is increasing, and there will be a divergence between oil - based and coal - based chemical industries [2][3]. - Geopolitical expectations for crude oil are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. The high valuation of asphalt will eventually decline. High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. Methanol fluctuates with the rebound of the coal end. Urea's futures price rises firmly due to the better - than - expected Indian tender. Ethylene glycol rebounds first due to strong coal and weak oil. PX maintains a volatile state. PTA's cost has no strong support, and its basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. Short - fiber is relatively resistant to price drops. The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips is slightly repaired. PP fluctuates with the divergence of oil and coal support. Propylene fluctuates, and PL is short - term volatile and weak. Plastic fluctuates with a slight boost from the coal end. Pure benzene has a narrow - range fluctuation. Styrene fluctuates weakly with increasing inventory. PVC fluctuates mainly with strong expectations but weak reality. Caustic soda fluctuates weakly with increasing spot pressure [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices closed down. Russia is considering an air cease - fire, and Trump continues to threaten India with tariffs. The geopolitical situation has both positive and negative developments. The API data shows that US crude oil and diesel inventories continued to rise last week, and the high - operating rate of refineries is expected to be limited in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot pressure increases, and the high valuation of asphalt finally declines. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is rising. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The conflicts in Russia - Ukraine, Palestine - Israel, and the US - Iran relations are expected to ease in the medium - to - long term. China has increased the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of oversupply. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakness of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand space for high - sulfur substitution. It currently has a low valuation and fluctuates with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and its own supply - demand changes are limited, maintaining a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: The raw material price performance is poor, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply - demand situation of PX itself has few changes, and the direct demand has some support after the commissioning of new devices. - **Outlook**: Volatility [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: There is no strong cost support, and supply - demand is under pressure. The basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the support is insufficient. The supply side has both shutdown and restart situations, and the overall supply has no obvious contraction. The demand side has mediocre sales of polyester yarns, and suppliers' active sales have pushed down the basis. - **Outlook**: Volatility, focusing on the implementation of major plant overhauls at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The driving force is insufficient, and pure benzene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has declined, but there is still some support from the parade expectation. The crude oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated commissionings of pure benzene upstream and downstream devices, and the commissioning rhythm has a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: During the consumption peak season and with sanctions risks, crude oil is temporarily stable in the short term. In August, the supply of pure benzene increases, but there are new downstream commissionings, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the macro - sentiment was good, and there was some restocking in the styrene downstream. This week, the restocking sustainability is insufficient, and the support for styrene is weakened. In addition, the supply of styrene itself has recovered, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the new home appliance production schedule data is still average. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrivals have decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost - end pure benzene is stable or slightly stronger, but the driving force for styrene is also limited. Overall, the styrene price may fluctuate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: With strong coal and weak oil, ethylene glycol rebounds first. - **Main Logic**: The cost end has certain support with weak oil and strong coal. Ethylene glycol stabilizes first and rebounds following the coal - chemical industry after hitting the bottom. The overall supply - demand variables are few. The shutdown of a South China plant delays the inventory accumulation expectation. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost trend is differentiated, and the price is relatively resistant to drops. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost support is still poor. In the pattern of strong coal and weak oil, it is more resistant to drops than upstream PTA. The short - term processing fee support is relatively strong. The supply - demand pattern has few variables, and the sales performance is mediocre. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee shows a weak - stable trend, and there is a medium - to - long - term inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **View**: The production reduction scale continues, and the processing fee is slightly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The raw material support is insufficient, and the oil and coal trends are differentiated. With the production reduction on the supply side, the overall decline is less than that of the upstream cost, and the processing fee is repaired. - **Outlook**: The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips has support at the bottom, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The rebound of the coal end has some driving effects, and methanol fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the short - term coal end. The production enterprises sold at a discount, and the downstream purchased on demand. The olefin demand followed up normally, and other demands were relatively stable. The port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [22]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The Indian tender exceeds expectations, and exports may change. The futures price rises firmly. - **Main Logic**: The Indian tender information on August 4 exceeded expectations, which had a positive impact on the market sentiment for exports. The futures trading volume increased, and the price rose. However, the subsequent market still depends on the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. - **Outlook**: After the price increase, the market needs actual positive support. Without obvious changes in the fundamentals, attention should be paid to export - related policy information and possible further changes in the current Indian tender before August 8 [23]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The coal end has a slight boost, and LLDPE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly. The oil price is in short - term volatile decline, and the supply pressure from OPEC+ production increase makes the crude oil inventory not decline seasonally in the past two months. The macro - end is slightly warmer in the short term, and the coal end still has positive news. The LLDPE's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price decline and the short - term slight boost from the coal end make the LLDPE 09 contract fluctuate in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The support from oil and coal is still differentiated, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 4, the PP futures price rebounded slightly. The coal end has a short - term boost, and the oil price is in short - term volatile decline. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The overseas price is stable, and the export window is limited. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [26]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and PL is short - term volatile. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the PL futures price fluctuated. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer price continued to rise slightly. The downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term market follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end rebound has a boost today. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [27]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, PVC fluctuates mainly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise. The upstream production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the export has improved, and the cost is expected to move up. - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates with strong expectations but weak reality [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot pressure is gradually increasing, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the fundamental level, the demand from some areas has increased marginally, but the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda is increasing, and the upstream may switch to producing 32% caustic soda. - **Outlook**: The near - month warehouse receipt pressure is large, and there are negative factors such as the loosening of the spot price. The market has a large downward pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the upstream reduces production due to low profits, the downstream peak - season performance, and policy - related disturbances [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including their latest values and change values [31]. 3.2.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. 3.2.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report provides the inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., including their latest values and change values [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Market concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. - Domestic: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, with a higher probability of incremental policy implementation in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Earlier in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff relaxation, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, etc. However, the July non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and downward revisions in May and June, along with rising unemployment, increased market concerns about US economic decline and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and the August non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [5]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event resolution, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, the short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Factors to watch include unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals show a volatile upward trend. Key factors to watch are Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Key factors include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: After the meeting results are announced, attention should be paid to production restrictions. Key factors include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and market sentiment cools. Key factors include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has begun. Key factors include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment cools, and the futures price shows an obvious correction. Key factors include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is manageable, and attention should be paid to cost adjustments. Key factors include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Key factors include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Glass**: The futures price drop has a negative feedback effect, and spot sales and production start to weaken. Key factors are spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight costs have risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. Key factors are soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations has put pressure on copper prices. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish - than - expected Fed policies, slower - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - **Alumina**: There are still disruptions in Guinea's mines, and alumina prices have risen slightly. Key factors include slower - than - expected mine复产 and faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the inventory build - up level, and aluminum prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Zinc**: Supply and demand are in a state of surplus, and zinc prices are trending weakly in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and lead prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include supply - side disruptions, slower battery exports, and unexpected macro and geopolitical changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are showing wide - range volatility. Key factors include unexpected changes in Indonesia's policies and supply - chain releases. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed higher. Key factors include Indonesia's policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Tin**: Supply remains tight, and tin prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and silicon prices are falling in a volatile manner. Key factors include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Key factors include OPEC + production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost end dominates the market rhythm. Key factors include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: After price drops, asphalt valuations are falling along with crude oil. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are weakening along with crude oil. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term divergence between inland and port markets, and methanol is moving in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Key factors are export policy trends and elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the port arrival rhythm, and inventory build - up is expected in August. Key factors are the inventory build - up inflection point at ports and device recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment cools, and prices are returning to fundamental - based pricing. Key factors are the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and processing fees are still under pressure. Key factors are the planned production cuts of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory build - up. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream yarn mills. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: The production cut scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. Key factor is the future operating conditions of bottle chips. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses the market, and it is moving in a short - term volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PP**: The anti - cut - throat - competition sentiment has changed, and PP is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support is weakening, and plastic is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment is improving, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality - based pricing, and the futures price is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and caustic soda is trending weakly. Key factors are market sentiment, operating rates, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment is warming up, and palm oil is leading the rise in oils and fats. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment remains weak. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Live Pigs**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices remain low. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are stabilizing along with commodities. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is showing amplitude - based volatility. Key factor is significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Paper Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - situation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Key factors are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices and spreads are rebounding. Key factors are demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure. Key factor is imports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Logs**: Bullish sentiment is strong, and log positions are increasing and prices are rising. Key factors are shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [8].

Report Summary Core View - Recent COMEX copper prices have fallen significantly by nearly 20% due to the implementation of US copper tariffs, and the spread between COMEX and LME copper has narrowed from nearly $3000 to less than $1000. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs may lead to an increase in US refined copper imports and a return of copper processing enterprises to the US [2]. - From the supply - demand side, copper mine supply remains tight, processing fees are at a low level, and demand is weak in the off - season with copper rod开工率 falling and terminal consumption dropping. Copper inventory has accumulated again, and refined copper supply - demand has weakened [3]. - Looking ahead, COMEX copper has fallen, and the C - L spread is approaching the historical average. Conditional spot investors can conduct short - selling arbitrage operations on COMEX copper, and pay attention to the long - LME and short - SHFE copper cross - market arbitrage [4]. Latest Dynamic and Reasons - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but refined copper is excluded, which is different from market expectations. This may lead to an increase in US refined copper imports and a return of copper processing enterprises to the US [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are at a low level, and the production guidance of some copper mines has been lowered, increasing the production risk of smelters [3]. - Demand side: In the off - season, copper rod开工率 has declined, terminal consumption such as household appliances has decreased, and copper inventory has accumulated again, and refined copper supply - demand has weakened [3]. - Other factors: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate in July, the expectation of a September rate cut has decreased, and investors are becoming more cautious as the expiration date of the reciprocal tariff approaches [3]. Summary and Strategy - Spot investors with conditions can conduct short - selling arbitrage operations on COMEX copper according to their own situations [4]. - Pay attention to the long - LME and short - SHFE copper cross - market arbitrage due to the relatively high SHFE/LME ratio and positive import profit [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global geopolitical tensions and US tariff proposals have led to a stagnant oil market, with traders on the sidelines. The decline in domestic manufacturing activity and weakening domestic and export demand have dragged down domestic commodities and the energy - chemical sector. The high volatility of crude oil continues, while the chemical industry is weaker due to the cooling of market sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive oil prices, with high refinery开工 rates in China and the US providing support. However, supply pressure from OPEC+ is also present. The strong current situation driven by high refinery开工 and the weak expectation driven by supply pressure lead to oil price oscillations. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9] - **Asphalt**: With rising oil prices, short - selling opportunities for asphalt emerge. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is regarded as weak. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and geopolitical factors only cause short - term price fluctuations [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its price follows the weakening of crude oil. It faces factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [12] - **PX**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, but the cost still provides some support. The overall supply - demand pattern has limited changes, and the inventory remains at a low level [14] - **PTA**: Some plants have short - term shutdowns, and the cost still has some support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15] - **Pure Benzene**: There is no obvious driving force, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The fundamental situation has improved in the third quarter, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [18] - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, and it oscillates in a narrow range. There is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, and port inventories are accumulating [19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have temporarily affected port inventory reduction. In the short term, the cost support has weakened, and supply pressure has increased. There is an expectation of inventory inflection [20] - **Short - Fiber**: The inventory has increased month - on - month. The price passively follows the raw materials, and downstream demand remains weak [22] - **Bottle - Chip**: It returns to the cost - pricing model. The price oscillates weakly following the decline of upstream raw materials [23] - **Methanol**: The port inventory is accumulating, and it oscillates in the short term. The production profit is still relatively high, and there is a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin sector [24] - **Urea**: The demand is generally weak, and the market is in a state of weak downward movement. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate or decline [25] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate in the short term, and the supply pressure is still present. The demand is in the off - season, and overseas factors need to be monitored [27] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US game, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate, the supply side has an incremental trend, and the demand side is weak. Overseas factors and Sino - US tariff games need to be monitored [29] - **PL**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and may oscillate in the short term. The short - term capital game is significant, and the spot impact is limited [29] - **PVC**: The policy expectation has cooled, and it mainly oscillates. The market sentiment has cooled, the fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise [32] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has been unexpectedly reduced, and it is under cautious pressure. The downstream demand has marginal changes, and the production is at a high level. The downward space is limited due to low inventory and cost support [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - term Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - term spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.8 with a change of 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 26 with a change of - 18 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 126 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 81140 [34] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: There are also corresponding cross - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 335 with a change of 28 [35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not provided with specific summarized content in the given text, only variety names are listed such as methanol, urea, etc. [36][47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-01 事件落地，资⾦拥挤度释放 股指期货：事件落地，资⾦拥挤度释放 股指期权：领⼝策略强化波动率结构 国债期货：市场继续消化政治局会议信息 股指期货方面，周四沪指低开低走，两市放量至1.96万亿元，前期主 线全面回落，仅有科技成长补涨。展望后市，中报季、阅兵前时点值得关 注，仍有事件交易机会，短期靴子落地式资金释放，我们建议看长做短， 配置型投资者继续持有IM多单，回撤反而成为加仓良机。 股指期权方面，尽管昨日升波下跌，但期权市场流动性并无显著提 升，成交量提升10%，而成交金额仅增加2.4%。波动率方面，IO、MO昨日 小幅抬升，但变化逻辑相异，MO的波动率微笑结构反映领口策略的强化， 即认沽波动率升，而认购波动率降；而IO波动率微笑结构相反，或反映市 场短期对成长风格更加谨慎，而对价值风格相对积极。综上，短线仍是双 卖为主，把握波动率回落，中期备兑思路不变。 国债期货方面，昨日国债期货主力合约继续上涨。昨日，国债期货高 开后震荡上行，市场继续消化政治局会议信息，债市情绪延续好转； 另外，7月PMI数据公布，制 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-1 ⻩⾦修复性反弹，⽩银延续回落 经历议息会议之夜的利空消息密接轰炸后，⻩⾦⽇内开启修复性反弹， 内盘⻩⾦受到⼈⺠币⾛低的影响，⾛势更为坚挺。美国⼆季度GDP数据超 预期回升，但关税影响下贸易和库存对单季度的影响较⼤，平滑上半年增 速来看，增⻓中枢整体下移的事实客观。后续关税逐渐成为慢变量，关注 其对美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，我们提⽰8⽉下旬的全球央⾏年会更为 重要，关注本周五⾮农数据表现，⻩⾦中⻓期多头趋势并未逆转。 重点资讯： 1）美国上周初请失业金人数为21.8万人，预期22.4万人，前值21. 7万人；四周均值为22.1万人，前值22.45万人；至7月19日当周续请 失业金人数194.6万人，预期195.5万人，前值自195.5万人修正至19 4.6万人。 2）美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8%，预期升2.7%，前值自升2. 7%修正至升2.8%；环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。美国6月 个人支出环比升0.3%，预期升0.4%，前值自降0.1%修正至持平。 3）美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each metal, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard (expected price movement within 2 - 12 weeks): - **Copper**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern [8][9] - **Alumina**: Expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [11][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with potential for an upward movement later [13][15] - **Zinc**: Expected to be volatile and bearish [15][16] - **Lead**: Expected to be in a volatile state [17][20] - **Nickel**: Expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [21][25] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term [26] - **Tin**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern, with potential for increased volatility in August [27][29] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Investors are concerned about weak consumption, causing the non - ferrous metals market to decline under pressure. The 7 - month Politburo meeting was in line with expectations, and potential incremental stimulus policies are yet to be seen. The market's focus has shifted back to weakening consumption. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the Sino - US tariff has been further extended. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the US unexpectedly did not impose additional taxes on refined copper imports, leading to a stronger US dollar index, which exerts pressure on non - ferrous metals. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of base metals are gradually loosening seasonally, and domestic inventories are rising seasonally. In the short - to - medium term, the rapid rise of the US dollar and the expectation of weakening demand will suppress prices, and there is a risk of further decline in the center of gravity of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to short zinc ingots at high prices and cautiously consider low - buying and short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and short - selling opportunities at high prices for some varieties with supply - demand surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, causing a significant decline in COMEX copper prices. - **Information Analysis**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged. China's electrolytic copper production in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, COMEX copper prices dropped significantly, and the C - L spread returned to the historical average. In terms of supply and demand, the copper ore processing fee continued to decline, and the raw material supply was still tight. The demand for copper rods decreased, and the copper inventory increased, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of copper is still restricted, and the inventory is at a low level. However, the demand is marginally weakening, and the US tariff on copper is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. Copper is expected to show a volatile pattern [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and alumina prices are oscillating and falling. - **Information Analysis**: The spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends on July 31. There were some spot basis - point transactions, and an overseas transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina was completed. The alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the low warehouse receipts problem dominate the alumina market. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising, but the warehouse receipts are at a very low level. The market price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation before the significant increase in warehouse receipts [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" sentiment and warehouse receipts [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased significantly. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum decreased. The US and the EU are still negotiating trade agreements, and the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again, and the Politburo meeting statement is in line with expectations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a weakening trend. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot is at a discount. The off - season inventory accumulation trend may continue [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term consumption and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to be range - bound. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices is recommended based on the premium/discount and inventory inflection point [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. The import volume of scrap aluminum in June decreased year - on - year. The Sino - US tariffs have been extended, and the Politburo meeting was in line with expectations [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of ADC12 is supported by the firm price of scrap aluminum. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 - A00 spread is at a low level, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and the market follows electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has eased, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different, and the inventory increased. A large - scale lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15][16]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" speculation sentiment has cooled down. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and the smelting profit is good. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The fundamentals are in a surplus state [16]. - **Outlook**: In August, the production of zinc ingots will remain high, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the decline space of lead prices is limited. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of scrap batteries remained unchanged, the price of lead decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the supply increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm improved slightly [17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the premium is stable, and the spread between primary and recycled lead has decreased slightly. The supply of recycled lead is increasing, and the demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, with the battery factory's operating rate higher than the same period in previous years [20]. - **Outlook**: The macro - situation is fluctuating. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply may continue to increase slightly. The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, and lead prices are expected to be in a volatile state [20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The anti - speculation logic has emerged, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. Many companies in the nickel industry have investment and development plans, and the Indonesian nickel ore association proposed to revise the HPM formula [21][22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the upward pressure is significant [25]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and bearish, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [25]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The spot premium in Foshan was positive, and the price of high - nickel pig iron increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The inventory has decreased, and the structural surplus pressure has been relieved [26]. - **Outlook**: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The demand is limited by the off - season, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, the tin ore production is expected to increase gradually, but the domestic tin ore shortage situation will not change for the time being. The supply of raw materials for smelters is tight, and the operating rate and output are under downward pressure. The terminal demand has weakened marginally [27]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the volatility may increase in August [29].