Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is hovering near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce due to the expectation of the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut and the decline of US Treasury yields [1][3] - The first interest - rate cut is about to happen, and attention should be paid to the guidance on the subsequent path from the quarterly end interest - rate meeting. There can be a moderate optimism about the subsequent interest - rate cut space at the beginning of the interest - rate cut cycle [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Key Information - The US and China have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer to US control, to be confirmed in a call between US President Trump and Chinese leaders on Friday [2] - The Trump administration is taking actions to weaken China's global port network and place more strategic docks under Western control [2] - The central bank and the General Administration of Customs have optimized the "non - one - batch - one - certificate" policy for gold imports, expanding applicable customs from 10 to 15, extending the license validity period to 9 months and allowing multiple declarations within the validity period, which is beneficial to the gold trade [2] - Chinese leaders proposed a global governance initiative at the "SCO+" meeting, aiming to promote the multipolarization of the international monetary system and improve the global financial governance system [2] b) Price Logic - In the European session on Tuesday, gold hovered near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce. Market bets on the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut continued to suppress the US dollar, driving up non - yielding assets. The market focus is on the Fed's policy meeting this week [3] - US economic data in August showed that retail sales and industrial output both exceeded expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver. Meanwhile, the unexpected decline of Canada's CPI strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the probability of a rate cut this week in the swap market rose to 93% [3] c) Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities includes special indices (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) with corresponding increases of +0.62%, +0.79%, +0.67%, and +0.39% respectively on September 16, 2025 [44] - The precious metals index on September 16, 2025, had a daily increase of +1.15%, a 5 - day increase of +1.69%, a 1 - month increase of +9.09%, and a year - to - date increase of +33.31% [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings include "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., based on the "Investment Rating Standard Explanation" [264]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU is considering increasing sanctions on Russia, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. International crude oil futures have risen for three consecutive days. The EU's consideration of sanctioning oil companies importing Russian crude has raised concerns about supply - side disruptions. OPEC+ representatives will discuss production capacity this week, which may affect future production increases. Macro - level positive sentiment has provided some support for oil prices [2]. - The chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. China's weak retail sales data has led to expectations of consumption - stimulating policies. Chemical products have generally risen following the rebound of crude oil and coal, but the rebound is hesitant, and the basis of many varieties has weakened. During the refinery maintenance season, there are not many unexpected over - maintenance situations, and the reduction in chemical supply is insufficient to support a large - scale rebound [3]. - Overall, the short - term boost from macro - sentiment on chemical product prices is temporary, and the overall situation remains one of oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The market is affected by factors such as API data on US inventories, the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and OPEC+ production policies. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors as the main risk [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500. The asphalt futures price rebounds following crude oil. However, the high - level valuation of asphalt has contradictions in inventory and production scheduling, and the price is expected to oscillate [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, fuel oil weakly rebounds following crude oil. The three main drivers of high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [4][11]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near - term and far - term markets, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The price is affected by factors such as regional market prices, device maintenance, and port inventories [4][22]. - **Urea**: With the overall rebound of the chemical industry, urea's growth is under pressure and is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [4][23]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The expectation of a loose supply - demand situation in the long - term suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [4][17]. - **PX**: The fundamental outlook is poor, and the processing fee is further compressed. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support level around 6600 [4][12]. - **PTA**: Polyester demand is average, and the spot market has sufficient supply, putting pressure on the basis. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support around 4600 [4][12]. - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with costs, and demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [4][19]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is limited driving force, and it passively follows the market. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following raw materials [4][20]. - **PP**: Slight increase in maintenance and support from the coal end lead to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as device maintenance, cost support, and supply - demand relationships [4][25]. - **Propylene**: PDH maintenance still provides support, and it oscillates in the short term [4]. - **Plastic**: Slight increase in maintenance leads to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as oil prices, technical support, downstream demand, and supply - side pressure [4][24]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by benzene - ethylene devices and macro - disturbances, pure benzene rises intraday. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for new drivers [4][14]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Affected by macro and device disturbances, benzene - ethylene rebounds. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to inventory pressure [4][15]. - **PVC**: With a weak current situation and strong expectations, PVC oscillates. The price is affected by macro - policies, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [4][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The price is affected by factors such as downstream demand, device maintenance, and cost [4][28]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in these spreads [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, along with their changes [31]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The report shows the inter - variety spread data for combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., and their changes [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The stock market shows resilience, and the bond market sentiment has improved. For stock index futures, the market is resilient, and it is recommended to maintain an active allocation before the National Day with a preference for the growth sector and continue to hold IM long positions. For stock index options, there are short - term gaming disturbances, and a covered strategy is recommended in the medium term. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has improved, and short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and curve steepening opportunities [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The market is resilient. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts, the spreads between current - month and next - month contracts, and the total positions have changed. Yesterday, the market recovered in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks, and the trading volume was 2.3 trillion with a recent shrinking trend. Before the National Day, an active allocation is maintained, and the style is biased towards growth. The financial data in August shows that the transfer of household deposits is accelerating, the M1M2 gap is rising, and consumption and inflation are difficult to increase, which promotes policy expectations and funds flowing into the technology sector. It is recommended to hold IM [3][9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: There are short - term gaming disturbances, and a covered strategy is recommended in the medium term. Yesterday, the option market turnover was 1.0278 billion yuan, a 15.46% increase from the previous trading day. It is speculated that call option gaming is dominant due to large inter - variety differentiation and an increase in the average implied volatility. The put option trading volume increased, and the overall bullish sentiment decreased. A covered strategy is recommended because the large delta exposure of sellers implies a low probability of a rapid short - term pullback, and there is potential for a short - volatility strategy [4][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has improved. The trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. Yesterday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the tightening of inter - bank funds and the results of the Sino - US Madrid talks were negative for the bond market. However, the expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading operations has boosted the bullish sentiment. In the short term, the central bank will support the short - end, and the long - end yield is affected by risk preference and policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, long - end arbitrage opportunities, and curve steepening opportunities [5][10][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data of different regions this week, including China's August social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year rate, industrial added value year - on - year rate, the eurozone's September ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US August retail sales month - on - month rate, etc. Some data have been released, and some are yet to be announced [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **China Macro**: On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, including promoting consumption activities, cross - border cooperation, extending business hours of cultural and tourist venues, and optimizing student vacation arrangements [14]. - **US Macro**: The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan's appointment has been confirmed and can attend the September FOMC meeting [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Specific data on basis, spreads, and positions are provided, but detailed data is not repeated here [9]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: The turnover and implied volatility changes are mentioned, but detailed data is not repeated here [4][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of different contracts are provided, but detailed data is not repeated here [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillating" for oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, live pigs, synthetic rubber, and sugar; "Oscillating Strongly" for natural rubber and cotton; "Oscillating Weakly" for corn/starch in the short term; and specific trading ranges and outlooks for double-offset paper and logs [5][6][8][10][11][13][14][16][19][21]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products, influenced by factors such as weather, supply and demand, policies, and international trade. For example, the decline in the good - rate of US soybeans affects the oil and protein meal markets; the new grain listing rhythm impacts the corn market; and the "anti - involution" policy affects the live pig market [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The good - rate of US soybeans continues to decline, and oils and fats continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Affected by seasonal harvest pressure and demand concerns, US soybeans and soybean oil fluctuated. The macro - environment focuses on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the dollar weakened on Monday. Crude oil prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about Russian oil supply interruptions. In the industrial sector, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has expanded, and the good - rate has dropped to 63%. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September may be at a high level, and the probability of inventory accumulation is large. The demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil continues to decline slowly, but it is still high year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of the recent strengthening of oils and fats. The probability of a continued increase in oil prices in the medium term is high [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market drags down the futures price, which tests the lower - edge support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and a US interest - rate cut is almost certain. The September supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean area and yield. The good - rate of US soybeans is in line with expectations, and the export inspection is better than expected. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans needs attention. Domestically, in the short term, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises also rises slightly. In the long term, the purchase of soybeans in October is nearly completed, and the purchase in November is advancing. - **Outlook**: The macro - expectation is positive, the yield of US soybeans may still decline, and the sowing progress in South America is uncertain. The protein meal futures price continues to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to hold long orders and take corresponding hedging measures [5]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume of trucks is at a high level, and the futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply side is affected by the active grain sales in the trading link, and the inventory of each link is declining. The demand side is affected by the inventory situation of feed enterprises. In the short term, there is pressure from the new grain listing, and in the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the condition of tight carry - over inventory. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The spot market pressure persists, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the planned slaughter volume of farms in September increases, and the supply of pigs is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms. The "anti - involution" policy may gradually reduce the supply pressure in 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to pig slightly increases, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreases. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to oscillate. The futures market shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs strongly and returns to the 16,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: After the 09 contract is delisted, the 01 contract is still strong, and it is also driven by the overall strengthening of commodities. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive drivers. The supply side needs to pay attention to the output and inventory reduction rate, and the demand side needs to observe the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises. - **Outlook**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the short - term fundamentals are also supportive. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs in a range. - **Logic**: The BR futures price oscillates horizontally. It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene. In the medium - term, the expectation of many device overhauls from September to November and the low price reduce the bearish sentiment, but there is no continuous upward - driving force. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures price may oscillate strongly [12][13]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price fluctuates slightly, and pay attention to the dynamic of the purchase price. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazil and India are expected to increase production, while the US is expected to reduce production, but the global cotton production may not decrease significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand improves, and the opening price of new cotton is expected to be higher than last year. The Fed may cut interest rates in September, which may boost commodity prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it oscillates in the range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price oscillates slightly. - **Logic**: In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward pressure. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import also increases. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound. - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price has a downward - driving force and is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, it runs in the range of 5,500 - 5,750 yuan [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the pulp enters a range - fluctuation market. - **Logic**: The pulp futures price rebounds after hitting a new low. The stabilization is mainly due to the non - excessive weakness of the double - offset paper futures after listing and the relief of the pressure of warehouse - receipt trading after the 09 contract delivery. The demand in the spot market is average. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has a weakened effect, and the resumption of production by Chenming brings additional supply. Although it is the seasonal peak season, the demand improvement is limited. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The expected fluctuation range is 4,950 - 5,300 yuan [17][18]. 3.1.10 Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment rebounds, and the double - offset paper oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: The double - offset paper futures price rebounds with the commodity sentiment. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, the publisher's tender has not started, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The spot price is at a neutral level, and there is no clear upward or downward driver. - **Outlook**: It is difficult to go up or down unilaterally. Consider operating in the range of 4,000 - 4,500 yuan [19][20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The processing demand recovers slightly, and the spot price may have an upward - adjustment expectation. - **Logic**: The inventory of logs rebounds slightly, and the market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September improves, but it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase in September - October, and the port is in the inventory - reduction stage. - **Outlook**: The log price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, live pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [23][41][54][66][113][124][139][164]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strongly", "Oscillating Strongly", "Oscillating", "Oscillating Weakly", "Weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the calculation method of standard deviation [178].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the process of household deposit transfer indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets, such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting at 0:00 on September 18th. The market's baseline assumption for the interest - rate decision is a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with a small probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the release of US inflation data in August provides another reason for the Fed to cut rates: inflation has not significantly increased due to tariffs. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors has also boosted market expectations for a rate cut [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestically, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity should be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is generally stable, which supports the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that the subsequent use of special bonds may be more for debt resolution and less for physical work such as infrastructure. Considering the uncertain implementation rhythm of 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments, the demand impulse for the physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. For investors interested in financial assets, it is recommended to monitor the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. - **Asset Views**: It is recommended to pay more attention to liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specifically, investors should focus on CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be considered [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the expanding risk of the Fed's independence are driving prices up. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has ended, and there is no upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: Steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, hot - metal production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production has returned to a high level, and port inventory has slightly increased. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory and policy dynamics [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Supply has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts has begun. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market sentiment is cautious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply has slightly increased, and expectations are still fluctuating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream concentrated pick - up has led to continuous inventory reduction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and unexpected slowdown in domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, and extreme market trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery in zinc - ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and lead prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel market has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including changes in the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of silicon prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and there is intense competition between long and short positions. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Russian fuel - oil exports have reached a new high, and the fuel - oil market is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including geopolitical situations and crude - oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely following crude - oil prices. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the key point being crude - oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - term and far - term contracts is still large, and methanol is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Urea has returned to a fundamental - driven decline and is waiting for new positive factors. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the actual implementation of exports and market - sentiment changes under long - term pressure [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expectations are leading, and the market is pessimistic about future production - capacity pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including coal and oil price fluctuations, port - inventory rhythms, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: Fundamental driving forces are limited, and prices mainly follow costs under the temporary support of PXN. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak - demand season [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak season [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw - material support is average, and processing fees have improved under factory price - holding. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, with significant constraints. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in the volume of propane and PL commodities has boosted prices, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic macro - economic conditions [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices, macro - economic policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations coexist, and PVC is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including market sentiment, production starts, and demand [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products - **Oils**: The good - condition rate of US soybeans has continued to decline, and oils continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the futures market, and futures prices are testing the lower - limit support. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - economic factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is at a high level, and both futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, macro - economic factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Spot - market pressure continues, and the futures market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is running strongly and has returned above 16,000. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - economic changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It continues to oscillate. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being significant crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: There is strong support at the bottom, and cotton prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and pulp has entered a range - bound market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Market sentiment has rebounded, and double - glued paper is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production starts [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and there is an expectation of spot - price increases. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including shipment volume and delivery volume [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: 【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916 - Research Team: Industrial and Cyclical Group - Research Analysts: An Jierui, Wu Xilu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The planned shipping capacities for the US West Coast and Europe are declining from their peak levels, while the shipping volume to the United States remains low [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (from September 21st to September 28th), the planned shipping capacity on the US West Coast route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The shipping capacity on the US East Coast route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31% [4] - The shipping capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route is operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decline of 12.5% with an expanding decline [4] - In the 39th week, the shipping capacity on the China - North Europe route decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The shipping capacity on the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Containerized Cargo to the United States - As of September 15th, the shipping volume of containerized cargo from China to the United States reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number of ships was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% [4] - The shipping volume of containerized cargo from Vietnam to the United States rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Port Arrival Volume in the United States - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and that from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9% [5] - This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and that from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14th, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 6652,000 TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18th to August 25th, the total bookings in the United States were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The bookings from China to the United States were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30% [5] - In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total booking volume in the United States was 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly booking volume of imports from China to the United States was 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Domestic styrene profit is low and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76 pct compared to the previous period and an increase of 5.6 pct year - on - year. The weekly output was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons from the previous period [2]. - Overseas, there are new styrene device overhauls in Malaysia and Belgium. As of September 15, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 81.8%, a decrease of 1.9 pct compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.1 pct year - on - year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [2]. - The global styrene operating rate is at a neutral level. As of September 15, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 78.5%, a decrease of 3.3 pct compared to the previous period and an increase of 2.33 pct year - on - year [2]. Group 2: Specific Data Summaries - Domestic styrene: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate was 74.98%, weekly output was 354,000 tons. As of September 15, the non - integrated profit was - 307 yuan/ton [2]. - Overseas styrene: As of September 15, 2025, the operating rate was 81.8%. The US INEOS 500,000 - ton styrene overhaul plan was postponed to January 2026, a 240,000 - ton styrene device in Malaysia started a 20 - day overhaul at the end of August, and a 440,000 - ton styrene device in Belgium started a one - month overhaul in mid - September [2]. - Global styrene: As of September 15, 2025, the operating rate was 78.5% [2].

Report Title - "【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916" [1] Report Analysts - An Jierui,从业资格号:F03100682,投资咨询号: Z0021085 [1] - Wu Xilu,从业资格号:F03117373,投资咨询号:Z0022651 [1] Core Views - High - frequency shipping capacity shows mixed trends, with the planned capacity of the US West route rebounding month - on - month and the North European capacity rising slightly. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US has dropped again at a low level, and the arrival volume at US ports has declined in the past two weeks. Domestic port throughput fluctuates but remains higher than the same period last year. US booking data also shows a downward trend [4][5] Summary by Content High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (September 21 - 28 planned capacity), the capacity of the US West route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The capacity of the US East route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route was operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% with an expanding decline. The capacity of the China - North Europe route in the 39th week decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The capacity of the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Container Ships Carrying Goods to the US - As of September 15, the shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8%. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from Vietnam to the US rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Arrival Volume at US Ports - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9%. This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 665.2 million TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18 - 25, the total US bookings were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From August 18 - 25, the US bookings from China were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total US bookings were 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly US bookings from China were 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is expected to have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern, with short - term attention on selling opportunities on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][9]. - The protein meal market is expected to continue range - bound trading, with long positions held at 2900 - 2910 and opportunities to add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises are suggested to buy basis contracts or price at low levels [7]. - The hog market is expected to have low - level oscillations in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually weaken in 2026 if the de - capacity policy is effectively implemented [9]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue its oscillating trend [11][13]. - The cotton market is expected to have short - term range - bound trading, with support at 13800 yuan/ton and resistance at 14300 yuan/ton [14]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long term and may stop falling and rebound in the short term, with a trading range of 5500 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market is expected to have an oscillating trend, with an expected trading range of 4950 - 5300 [17]. - The offset paper market is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. - The log market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September, with a possible range of 780 - 840 [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - Despite the bearish USDA September supply - demand report, the domestic oils and fats oscillated strongly on the previous day. The market is focused on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the crude oil price was strong due to regional tensions. - The US soybean yield may be further revised down, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in September, and the demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but still high year - on - year. - In the short term, pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, and in the medium term, the probability of price increases is high [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the US - China talks were held in Spain. The US soybean yield was slightly revised down, and the end - inventory consumption ratio increased slightly. The probability of La Nina from September to November is 55%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress should be monitored. - Domestically, the double - meal prices fell due to the neutral - bearish supply - demand report and the US - China talks. In the short term, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and the feed enterprises' physical inventory is slightly increasing. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. 3.1.3玉米及淀粉 - The domestic corn prices showed mixed trends. The supply side is affected by the active selling of old - crop grains and the expected new - crop harvest pressure. The demand side sees some support from the replenishment of small - scale feed enterprises in the south. - In the short term, there are opportunities to sell on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities. In the long term, the market is not pessimistic [1][9]. 3.1.4生猪 - In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to increase. In the long term, if the de - capacity policy is effective, the supply pressure will gradually weaken in 2026 [9]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - After a sharp decline last week, the rubber price rebounded. The supply side needs to monitor the production increase and inventory reduction. The demand side needs to observe the downstream procurement intention. - In the short term, the price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - The BR futures rebounded slightly after stabilizing. It mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - In the short term, the price may be oscillating and bullish [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - Internationally, the global cotton production may not decline significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the demand is improving, and the new - cotton opening price is expected to be higher than last year. - In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3.1.8白糖 - In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, the fundamental supply is also relatively loose, but the price may stop falling and rebound [16]. 3.1.9纸浆 - After reaching a new low, the pulp futures rebounded. The market sentiment is stable, and the demand is average. The supply side has some new increments, and the demand side is in the seasonal peak season but with a weak upward - transmission effect. - The price is expected to oscillate in the low - level range [17]. 3.1.10双胶纸 - The double - offset paper futures have been oscillating around the listing price of 4200 yuan/ton. The price is at a neutral level, and there is a lack of clear upward or downward drivers. - It is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. 3.1.11原木 - The log market has been affected by the weak reality and the expectation of the peak season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in September. - The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [20]. 3.2品种数据监测 The report only lists various agricultural product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋白粕", "玉米、淀粉", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3评级标准 - The rating standards include "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase of 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease of 1 - 2 standard deviations), and "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations). - The time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks, and the standard deviation is calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [177].