1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE and PP are both rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment has cooled down, and supply - demand support is insufficient. The market is back to fundamental trading and may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,667 yuan/ton (-28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,482 yuan/ton (-14). LL North China spot is 6,660 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,730 yuan/ton (-120), and PP East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis is -7 yuan/ton (+28), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (-92), and PP East China basis is -72 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 289.9 yuan/ton (-52.7), PP oil - based production profit is -360.1 yuan/ton (-52.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is -582.4 yuan/ton (+60.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is 240.1 yuan/ton (-23.6), PP import profit is -253.7 yuan/ton (+6.5), and PP export profit is -61.4 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have fallen from high levels. There is still an expectation of a decline due to oversupply. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the weak fundamentals of PE are being traded, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. Supply is expected to rise steadily, demand is in the off - season, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [2] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested, the futures price has corrected from a high level. The supply - side may see more maintenance, demand support may weaken, and the overall inventory level is still high. The short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the off - season demand may limit the rebound space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE is neutral, and PP is neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [4] - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although there was a rush to export before April, the export situation is expected to decline significantly after April. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. The upstream production profit has decreased due to the weak spot price of caustic soda [1][3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is weak and continues to decline. The supply - demand situation of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory piling up. The demand from downstream industries is generally low, and the export orders remain sluggish [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4801 yuan/ton (-2), the East China basis is -261 yuan/ton (-38), and the South China basis is -241 yuan/ton (-18) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4540 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4560 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2855 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit is -35 yuan/ton (+50), the production profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is -662 yuan/ton (-29), the production profit of PVC by ethylene method is -138 yuan/ton (+54), and the PVC export profit is 0.5 dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - Inventory and production: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 31.1 tons (-1.7), the social inventory is 56.2 tons (+1.5), the operating rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 80.66% (+0.43%), the operating rate of PVC by ethylene method is 75.48% (-0.21%), and the overall operating rate of PVC is 79.08% (+0.23%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+1.7) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and there was a rush to export before April. Currently, the overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is declining, the inventory is piling up, and the upstream production profit has decreased [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V03 - 05 spread when it is low [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [4]. Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2005 yuan/ton (-1), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -21 yuan/ton (-71) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 635 yuan/ton (-23), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 964 yuan/ton (-72), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 519.4 yuan/ton (-71.9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -517.58 yuan/ton (-151.87), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and production: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 51.21 tons (+1.70), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.90 tons (-0.18), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 86.70% (+0.10%). The operating rate of downstream industries such as alumina is 85.83% (+0.09%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.76% (-1.33%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00) [2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts. The supply - demand situation is weak, with inventory piling up in Shandong. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from downstream industries is generally low [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways with a downward bias [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go short on the SH03 - 05 spread when it is high [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5].

甲醇日报 | 2026-01-20 伊朗局势放缓后，甲醇价格连续回调 港口方面：太仓甲醇2207元/吨（-18），太仓基差-5元/吨（+9），CFR中国263美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-24元/吨 （+12），常州甲醇2295元/吨；广东甲醇2210元/吨（-15），广东基差-2元/吨（+12）。隆众港口总库存1435250吨 （-101948），江苏港口库存765789吨（-65189），浙江港口库存273100吨（-19200），广东港口库存198000吨（-15000）； 下游MTO开工率85.77%（-2.29%）。 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差15元/吨（+15），太仓-内蒙-550价差-158元/吨（+2），太仓-鲁南-250价差-243元/ 吨（+2）；鲁南-太仓-100价差-107元/吨（-2）；广东-华东-180价差-177元/吨（+3）；华东-川渝-200价差-166元/吨（-1）。 市场分析 港口方面。伊朗局势放缓后，甲醇盘面价格连续回调，继续关注后续是否有反复。甲醇港口库存虽然首周下滑， 但下游MTO检修仍拖累港口价格表现；MTO处于停车检修中，宁波富德12月初检修至1月下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to improve, with port inventories falling from a high in the first week, and downstream提货 demand being boosted. Although styrene production remains low, the production of non - styrene pure benzene downstream has rebounded. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of the expected reduction of the US tariff policy on South Korean pure benzene. Domestic pure benzene production remains low. For styrene, port inventories are still slightly decreasing at the beginning of the week, the recovery rate of styrene production is slow, and downstream production has increased, with the inventory pressure of ABS gradually easing [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 182 yuan/ton (- 56), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 190 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 95 yuan/ton (- 17 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 158 dollars/ton (+ 13 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 157 dollars/ton (+ 14 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 154.0 dollars/ton (- 6.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 464 yuan/ton (+ 8 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3.3 Inventories and Production Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 29.70 tons (- 2.70 tons), and the production rate is not mentioned in the inventory - related data [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 93,500 tons (- 7,100 tons), East China commercial inventory is 58,900 tons (- 1,000 tons), and the production rate is 70.9% (- 0.1%) [1] 3.4 Production Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 54.05% (+ 7.34%) [2] - PS: Production profit is - 366 yuan/ton (- 99 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 57.40% (- 1.50%) [2] - ABS: Production profit is - 924 yuan/ton (- 138 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 69.80% (+ 0.00%) [2] 3.5 Production Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 945 yuan/ton (- 40), and the production rate is 77.17% (+ 2.95%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 919 yuan/ton (- 90), and the production rate of phenol is 89.00% (+ 3.50%) [1] - Aniline: Production profit is 1,171 yuan/ton (+ 262), and the production rate is 73.26% (+ 11.95%) [1] - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 881 yuan/ton (- 104), and the production rate is 65.30% (- 2.30%) [1] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: Consider cautious bottom - fishing and hedging for EB2602 and BZ2603 [4] - Basis and inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the inventory has declined significantly but remains above one million tons, higher than the same period last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose supply in the domestic market recently. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue. Attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and US soybean export [2] - For corn, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has gradually begun. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased. The inventory of north - south ports has also slightly increased, but the current price at the southern port is high, and feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment, still mainly purchasing on demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 1.51% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2420 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of January 14, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 93.9% complete, up from 88.3% a week ago. The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, with no change; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2555 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: As of January 14, the planting area of the 2025/26 corn crop in Argentina was 91.7% of the total expected area of 7.8 million hectares, up from 89.1% a week ago. Russia's seaborne grain exports in December were 4.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total seaborne grain exports in the first half of this year dropped to nearly 30 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [3] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The supply in the domestic market is relatively loose. The high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue [2] - Corn: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has started, but feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current inventory is lower than the historical average [4][5] Strategy - Soybean Meal: Cautiously bearish [3] - Corn: Neutral [6]

Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 147,600 yuan/ton and closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, with a -3.83% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 329,126 lots, and the open interest was 411,331 lots, compared with 416,133 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 3,100 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,698 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 146,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of -7,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 142,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of -7,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,040 US dollars/ton, a change of -45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - After the position limit policy last week, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily price limit for lithium carbonate futures contracts would be adjusted to 11%, the margin standard for speculative trading to 13%, and the margin standard for hedging trading to 12%. Multiple regulatory policies continued to suppress the speculative enthusiasm for lithium carbonate, and the main contract continued to decline with reduced positions [1]. - The spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Due to the recent sharp decline in prices, the downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the risk of a callback continues to rise. There is a possibility of testing the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Before April, the export tax - refund bonus still supports the demand to some extent, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and the demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, conduct short - term range operations and sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread trading and cross - variety trading [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relationship between China and Canada has eased, leading to increased volatility in the cooking oil market [1] - The prices of the three major cooking oils fluctuated yesterday. The futures and spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline [1] - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement has increased the hope of improving market access after months of interruption, but key details still need to be clarified [2] - Currently, the inventory of Canadian rapeseed in China has been cleared, and Australian rapeseed has not started to be pressed. The production of rapeseed oil in China has stagnated. The spot rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking, and the market circulation of spot goods is scarce. The basis is high and continues to rise. The rapeseed futures may experience a correction due to trade relations, but the basis is expected to remain high before the spot shortage is alleviated [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,648.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan or 0.30% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,996.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.25% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,902.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 161.00 yuan or 1.78% compared to the previous day [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.35% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was P05 + - 28.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was Y05 + 384.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160.00 yuan or 1.61% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was OI05 + 848.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] International Market Prices - Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,209 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,139 US dollars/ton, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 474 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 447 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotation: the Gulf of Mexico (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (February shipment) was 161 cents/bushel, a decrease of 7 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The large funds intend to cool down the market through heavy - holding stocks and ETFs, resulting in a decline in the overall trading volume of the two markets. However, the participation enthusiasm of the remaining funds is still relatively high, leading to the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, while the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 17.2% [1] - In the overseas market, the U.S. stock market was closed due to the Martin Luther King Memorial Day. The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board due to intensified geopolitical risks and weak European economic data. The German DAX index fell 1.34% to 24,959.06 points, while the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.6% to 49,442.44 points [1] - In the A - share spot market, the three major indexes showed a divergent trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4,114 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. Most sector indexes rose, with the basic chemical, petroleum and petrochemical, power equipment, and automobile industries leading the gains, while the computer, communication, and banking industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2.7 trillion yuan [1] - In the futures market, the current - month contract of IH was at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH and IF decreased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The large funds use heavy - holding stocks and ETFs to cool down the market, causing the overall trading volume of the two markets to decline. However, the enthusiasm of other funds remains high, resulting in the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 19, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4,114.00 (+0.29%), the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14,294.05 (+0.09%), the ChiNext Index was at 3,337.61 (-0.70%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4,734.46 (+0.05%), the SSE 50 Index was at 3,075.94 (-0.12%), the CSI 500 Index was at 8,287.95 (+0.67%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 8,265.65 (+0.40%) [12] - The charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF was 120,242 (-34,310), the open interest was 290,666 (-4,289); the trading volume of IH was 46,533 (-18,564), the open interest was 91,413 (-1,610); the trading volume of IC was 166,526 (-21,181), the open interest was 319,424 (+6,196); the trading volume of IM was 206,367 (-35,971), the open interest was 380,256 (+1,234) [14] - The charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratio, and foreign net open - interest quantity of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][15][17] - The table shows the basis of stock index futures. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 1.66 (-6.79), and that of IH was 0.46 (-1.18) [39] - The table shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures. For example, for the "next - month - current - month" spread of IF, the current value was - 4.20 (+7.00) [45]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-20 结构性降息落地，国债期货大多收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key to the settlement and sale of foreign exchange surplus in December lies in the real return of trade cash flow rather than sentiment. The surge in exports directly boosts the bottom - line of foreign exchange settlement, with the supply side clearly dominant. Enterprises' behavior is more in line with business logic than exchange - rate speculation. Forward hedging is active without squeezing spot foreign exchange settlement, indicating that the market is mainly focused on stable hedging. The US dollar against the RMB is expected to decline slowly, and in the short - term, it may test the 6.90–6.95 range, with limited room for the US dollar to rebound [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Supply - Demand Relationship Analysis Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Balance - In December 2025, the surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange significantly expanded to 1000.67 billion US dollars (bank settlement of 3179.60 billion US dollars and sale of 2178.93 billion US dollars), indicating a strong end - of - year supply of foreign exchange settlement. This is closely related to high - level export and cross - border payment activities, and the large trade surplus provides strong support for the RMB [9]. - The significant increase in the customer - side foreign exchange settlement momentum is the core of the surplus structure change. The surplus of bank customer - related settlement and sale of foreign exchange jumped to about 999.34 billion US dollars, reflecting the concentrated release of the real demand of domestic enterprises and institutions for foreign exchange settlement [10]. Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Willingness - In December, in the context of a stronger RMB and active trading in the spot market, enterprises' spot trading behavior became more rational. The average spot value of the US dollar against the RMB decreased by about 1.17% compared with November. The spot inquiry trading volume decreased to 345.59 billion US dollars, while the settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01% and the purchase rate of paid foreign exchange dropped to 55.41% [13]. - In December, both forward signing and performance increased, reflecting the enhanced demand for cross - period risk management and real - demand matching. Forward foreign exchange sales signing increased to 169.66 billion US dollars, and forward foreign exchange settlement signing rose to 524.32 billion US dollars. The performance on the execution side also strengthened, indicating that enterprises' foreign exchange layout focuses on cash - flow matching and exchange - rate risk management [14]. Analysis of Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange Structure Bank's Own Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In the macro - data analysis of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange, the bank's internal settlement and sale of foreign exchange activities, mainly including dividend payments, profit repatriation, and capital injection, have a small scale and are seasonal, with limited impact on the overall trend [18]. Bank Customer - Related Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December, the surplus of domestic bank customer - related cross - border payments and receipts in the current account significantly expanded. The current - account surplus increased from 552.38 billion US dollars to 1024.65 billion US dollars. The goods - trade surplus increased from 726.66 billion US dollars to 1259.22 billion US dollars, while the service - trade deficit expanded to - 85.34 billion US dollars, and the deficits in income and current transfer items deepened [22]. - In December, the capital and financial account turned from deficit to surplus, with net inflows from securities and other investments as important driving factors. The securities investment account turned from a deficit of 345.99 billion US dollars to a surplus of 108.15 billion US dollars, the direct - investment deficit slightly narrowed, and other investment accounts turned from deficit to surplus [22]. Deconstruction of December's Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange Securities Investment - In December, the trading volumes of north - bound and south - bound funds both decreased, indicating a wait - and - see attitude in cross - border equity asset allocation, with limited impact on foreign exchange supply and demand. The trading volumes of the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased to 43563.02 billion yuan and 15900.50 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slowdown in trading rhythm [28]. Goods Trade - Amid the differentiation in domestic and foreign economic climates, China's manufacturing momentum marginally recovered, supporting export expectations and foreign exchange settlement willingness. In December, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.10, back above the boom - bust line, while the US PMI dropped to 51.80 and the eurozone's to 48.80 [34]. - In December, imports and exports rebounded more than expected, and the annual trade surplus reached a record high of 1.2 trillion US dollars. High - tech product exports increased by 13.2% year - on - year, with industrial robots, lithium batteries, and wind - power equipment showing high growth. However, the intensity of foreign exchange settlement is restricted by enterprises' "demand - based foreign exchange" strategy and the relative attractiveness of US dollar interest rates [35].