1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the newly listed electronic convertible bonds have the highest quantity among newly issued convertible bonds, with eight bonds currently available, and their conversion value is relatively high, indicating strong potential for stock price appreciation [1][9] - The report identifies a concern regarding the high premium rates of these convertible bonds, with some, like Dinglong and Anke, exceeding 40% as of September 5, and most others above 30% [1][9] - The analysis suggests that evaluating the current investment value of these convertible bonds requires assessing whether the premium rates are excessively high and if there is room for further increases, as well as the risk of premium compression when entering the conversion period [1][9][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that while the valuation of electronic convertible bonds is currently high, it has not reached the peak levels seen in the third quarter of 2022, suggesting some potential for further appreciation [2][10] - It notes that the high premium rates of newly issued convertible bonds are primarily due to their longer remaining terms and the high time value of options, as well as supply-demand dynamics in the market [10][11] - The report emphasizes that if these convertible bonds enter the conversion period, there may be selling pressure from investors, which could impact the premium rates negatively [10][12] Group 3 - The weekly strategy section suggests that despite a recent high valuation adjustment, the convertible bond market is likely to remain attractive due to ample liquidity in the equity market and strong bullish sentiment among investors [4][24] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as technology and high-end manufacturing, and suggests specific convertible bonds to watch, including Zhengfan, Anji, and Xingsui in the technology sector, and Tian 23 and Jing'ao in the new energy sector [4][25] - It also mentions that the adjustment in valuations may renew interest from external funds and investors who previously reduced their positions, potentially leading to a rebound in convertible bond prices [4][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand due to environmental production restrictions, with a focus on the recovery during peak demand seasons [3][4]. - Short-term impacts from environmental restrictions are expected to ease, leading to a gradual recovery in both supply and demand [3][4]. - Long-term capacity regulation remains a key theme, with expectations for more precise management to promote industry consolidation and improve profitability for steel companies [3][4]. Price Trends - As of September 5, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,260 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton from the previous week, while other products like high-line and cold-rolled steel saw price declines [1][9]. - The report notes that the average price changes for various steel products over the past month and year reflect a complex market environment, with some products experiencing price increases while others decline [10][24]. Production and Inventory - As of September 5, 2025, total steel production decreased to 8.61 million tons, a reduction of 239,600 tons week-on-week, with rebar production specifically down by 18,800 tons [2][3]. - Total social inventory of major steel products increased by 311,800 tons to 10.765 million tons, indicating a build-up in stock levels despite reduced production [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel margins, with estimated changes in gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel being -46 CNY/ton, -38 CNY/ton, and -36 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and companies like Xianlou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].

Group 1: Employment Data Insights - August non-farm payroll data is crucial as it precedes the September interest rate decision, with market expectations already adjusted for potential weakness[3] - Key indicators such as ADP, manufacturing PMI, and job openings have pointed towards a slowdown in the labor market, setting the stage for weaker August non-farm data[3] - The risk of significant downward revisions to annual benchmark data in early September raises concerns about the accuracy of employment statistics, which may lead to further market sensitivity towards data adjustments[4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The anticipated downward revision of August non-farm data could trigger the Federal Reserve to consider a 50 basis point rate cut, with expectations for two rate cuts by year-end remaining the baseline scenario[4] - Powell's indication of a shift in monetary policy at the Jackson Hole meeting has made a September rate cut almost certain, with the threshold for not cutting rates becoming increasingly high[4] - Despite the potential for downward revisions, the current labor market indicators, such as unemployment rates and wage growth, do not show significant deterioration, suggesting a more cautious approach to rate cuts[5] Group 3: Labor Market Trends - The August ADP employment change fell sharply to 54,000 from a previous 104,000, indicating a notable slowdown in job creation[7] - Job openings decreased to 7.181 million, down by 176,000 month-over-month, reflecting a significant drop in hiring demand[7] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals fell below 1.0 for the first time since April 2021, signaling a weakening labor market[8]

Group 1: Economic Impact and Fiscal Concerns - The recent ruling against the White House's tariff executive order has led to a downward adjustment in inflation expectations and an upward adjustment in Federal Reserve easing expectations, supporting the recession and easing trade narrative[4] - If the Supreme Court maintains the ruling, the potential loss of tariff revenue, estimated at approximately $72 billion from April to July, could impact the deficit rate by at least 0.7 percentage points[4] - Since Q3 2022, the U.S. economy has seen a decline in growth rate, with the annualized GDP growth rate dropping from 3.8% to 1.6% without fiscal support[5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The July tax cut legislation is perceived as a continuation of the previous expansionary fiscal policy, but its actual impact on the economy is uncertain due to indirect effects on corporate and consumer behavior[5] - The government’s ability to spend beyond its means is crucial, with the tax cut potentially allowing for $5 trillion in debt issuance, which requires careful timing to avoid future fiscal constraints[6] - Rising interest rates on debt refinancing are increasing the weighted average interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has risen to 3.352% as of July 2023[7] Group 3: Interest Payments and Budget Constraints - Federal interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, significantly squeezing non-interest spending, which has dropped from over 95% of total spending in 2020 to around 85% currently[7] - The interest deficit rate is expected to rise from about 10% of total deficit in 2020 to nearly 50% by 2024, indicating a growing burden on fiscal policy[8] - If U.S. Treasury rates rise by 1%, the non-interest deficit rate could decrease by approximately 0.9 percentage points, leading to a potential GDP growth drag of about 0.6 percentage points[9] Group 4: Future Projections and Recommendations - To maintain fiscal stimulus effects, the U.S. may need to either issue more debt or rely on significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would require at least a 100 basis point reduction[10] - The current fiscal environment suggests limited support for economic growth over the next four quarters, with a potential for "stagflation" conditions[11] - Asset allocation strategies should consider precious metals as a safe haven, while also evaluating the risk of overseas assets amid rising credit concerns[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 60% of Kobotar Intelligent Technology for a cash consideration of 345 million yuan, increasing its stake to 80% [2]. - Kobotar specializes in high-performance automotive intelligent central computing platforms and related domain controllers, with total assets of 779 million yuan and a net asset of 75 million yuan as of July 31, 2025 [2]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's technology, product offerings, and customer base, with a projected cumulative net profit of no less than 630 million yuan from Kobotar from August 2025 to 2030 [2]. - The company is transitioning to a platform-based automotive electronics supplier, with strong capabilities in both software and hardware, and has begun mass production of body and chassis domain controllers [3]. - The company has established a global strategy, expanding its client base from Volkswagen to various new energy vehicle manufacturers, and is set to enter global production with the acquisition of IMI [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 7.87 billion yuan in 2025 to 12.20 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit increasing from 1.05 billion yuan to 1.71 billion yuan during the same period [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.61 yuan in 2025 to 4.24 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 21 to 13 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned for significant growth with the completion of the acquisition of Xinjiang Meisheng, which is expected to enhance its gold and copper production capabilities [2]. - The anticipated restart of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is expected to drive gold prices higher, benefiting the company's revenue [2]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2024 and enter a high growth phase in 2025, with substantial increases in revenue and net profit forecasted for the coming years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, Western Gold, is a major player in the gold mining sector in Xinjiang, China, and has expanded into manganese and beryllium through acquisitions [1][10]. - The company has a total gold resource of 32.1 tons and a manganese resource of 1,136 tons, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [1][22]. 2. Core Assets - The company has significant assets in Xinjiang, including the Katerba Asu gold-copper mine, which has a gold resource of 78.73 tons and is expected to start production in late 2025 [2][52]. - The company’s gold production is expected to increase significantly, with plans to produce 1.79 tons in 2025 [23]. 3. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold prices due to anticipated monetary easing and increased demand from central banks [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with a diversified portfolio that includes gold, manganese, and beryllium [1][2]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 9.04 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.58 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to increase from 469 million yuan to 2.44 billion yuan in the same period [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease significantly from 53 in 2025 to 10 in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, suggesting it is entering a new upward cycle from 2025 to 2027, with 2025 marking a performance bottom for the industry [6]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the military industry (excluding shipbuilding) achieved a total revenue of 222.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.8% [11][12]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 17.1% year-on-year and a 59.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, although net profit still declined by 9.5% year-on-year [65][67]. - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a "non-linear" change in revenue and profit due to factors such as price reductions and impairments, leading to significant uncertainty in performance forecasts [11][2]. - The military industry is expected to see a recovery in demand starting from 2025, with the revenue growth already reflected in the first half of 2025 [11][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 1H25, the military industry reported a total revenue of 222.5 billion yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year, while net profit fell to 12.9 billion yuan, down 19.8% [11][12]. - The shipbuilding sector, when included, showed a total revenue of 342.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with net profit decreasing by 0.7% [11][12]. - The report indicates that the military industry has faced a decline in net profit for eight consecutive quarters, with the first half of 2025 showing signs of recovery in revenue [2][4]. Inventory and Receivables - As of June 30, 2025, industry inventory reached 274.9 billion yuan, accounting for 124% of total revenue, indicating a positive shift as companies prepare for order recovery [3][20]. - Receivables stood at 335.68 billion yuan, representing 160% of total revenue, reflecting significant collection pressure on companies [3][22]. Segment Performance - The weaponry sector experienced a revenue increase of 36% year-on-year in 1H25, while the shipbuilding sector's revenue grew by 20% [4][32]. - The report notes that the upstream segment's revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, while the midstream segment saw a decline of 2% [4][56]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new-generation traditional equipment and new combat forces, highlighting specific companies within the aerospace, guidance, and commercial space sectors as potential investment opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for H1 2025, with total revenue of 21.01 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.32 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year [1]. - The passenger transport business showed positive growth in H1 2025, with 25 million passengers transported on the main line, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company declared its first interim dividend, amounting to 1.88 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 29.8% [3]. - The report highlights the potential profitability from the newly opened Xiongshang section of the Beijing-Hong Kong high-speed railway, which is expected to enhance passenger flow [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company’s revenue was 21.01 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.32 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in profitability [1]. - The company’s interest expenses decreased by 24% year-on-year to 804 million yuan, contributing to improved cash flow and debt repayment capacity [2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 13.25 billion yuan, 13.66 billion yuan, and 15.04 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 19, and 17 [4][3].