Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The macro - expectation has improved, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The prices of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are expected to show different trends in the short term, with PX and PTA likely to continue to fluctuate strongly, ethylene glycol to fluctuate in the range of 4400 - 4550, and short - fiber having a rebound expectation but limited upside [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **PX**: Last week, the PX price continued to rebound. The cost - end crude oil price strengthened, and the PX supply side continued to cut production, with weekly output decreasing and social inventory slowly declining. The PXN slightly recovered. As of May 14, the Asian PX market average price increased by 9.11% - 9.38% compared to the previous week [2][7]. - **PTA**: The PTA price continued to rise last week. The international oil price at the cost end supported the rebound of chemical products. The PTA start - up rate increased, and the downstream polyester load slightly decreased. The PTA inventory continued to decline, and the price continued to rise. From May 8th to May 15th, the PTA spot price increased by 8.09% [2][3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounded significantly last week. Initially, it was supported by the rising international oil price, and then the market rebounded from the low level due to the improvement of the macro - situation. However, the rebound amplitude was limited due to the increase in port data [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the raw material price fluctuations last week. Initially, the market purchasing was active, and the basis increased. Then, due to the improvement of the macro - situation and short - fiber supply - demand, the price slightly recovered, but the price rebound was less than that of PTA due to concerns about tariff impacts on terminal consumption [2]. 2. Supply Situation - **PX**: The domestic PX production last week was 64.63 tons, a decrease of 5.94% compared to the previous week. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.07%, a decrease of 4.87% compared to the previous week. The PX - N and PX - M spreads increased [8][10]. - **PTA**: The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate last week was 74.63%, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the previous week and an increase of 4.68% compared to the same period last year. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the previous week. The weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol devices was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the previous week [15]. 3. Downstream Demand - **Polyester**: The weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry last week was 158.33 tons, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 90.93%, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the previous week. The difference in the trends of output and capacity utilization rate was due to the commissioning of new polyester devices [20]. - **Terminal Weaving**: The comprehensive start - up rate of domestic main weaving production bases last week was 57.65%, an increase of 2.09% compared to the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. The trade negotiation between China and the US had a positive impact, and the weaving factories actively purchased raw materials [22]. 4. Market Outlook - **PX**: The cost - end crude oil price is rising, and domestic and foreign devices continue to be under maintenance. The expected weekly output is 64.73 tons. The PX price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **PTA**: The cost - end crude oil support is weak, but production is expected to increase. The downstream polyester load reduction is limited, and the terminal weaving start - up rate is rising. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The international oil price has rebounded from the low level, and the cost support has improved. The ethylene glycol port inventory remains low. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4400 - 4550 [23]. - **Short - fiber**: The raw - material PTA price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, providing cost support. The short - fiber still has a rebound expectation, but the upside is limited [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday this week, the shipping enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and the overall sales speed slowed down slightly compared with before the holiday. The apple market price tended to be stable, and the high - cost - effective supply remained strong. Market customers restocked as needed after the holiday, and the producing areas mainly shipped the previously packed goods. The inventory holders' willingness to sell increased. With the rising temperature, seasonal melons were on the market one after another, and the small - batch purchases decreased slightly. The new - season apples have gradually entered the fruit - setting period. The fruit - setting situation in the western region is differentiated, with poor fruit - setting in some producing areas, while the overall fruit - setting in Shandong is okay. In the future, apples are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend based on low inventory and growth impacts. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly View - The overall sales speed of apples slowed down slightly after the May Day holiday, the price was stable, and high - cost - effective supply was strong. New - season apples entered the fruit - setting period with different situations in different regions. Apples are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [3] 2. Market Review - This week, the main apple contract fluctuated at a high level. The apple basis was 263 yuan, an increase of 67 yuan compared with last week. [6] 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of May 9, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 8.96 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been strong. [12] 4. Main Apple Producing Areas - In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples was 4.00 - 4.50 yuan/jin, etc. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of orchard - owner general - grade apples starting from 70 was 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, etc. [17] 5. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of May 14, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 1.951 billion kg, a decrease of 337.6 million kg from last week. The inventory was still at a low level in the past five years. [19] 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased. The daily average number of trucks arriving during the week was about 30. The sales were smooth during the May Day holiday and slowed down slightly after the holiday. The market price of Luochuan 80 late - season Fuji apples was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, etc. [24] 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, the same as last week. [28] 8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 19th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25 yuan/kg compared with the 17th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, Kyoho grapes, and Fuji apples increased by 0.01 yuan/kg, 0.89 yuan/kg, and 0.22 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 17th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.28 yuan/kg and 0.06 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 17th week. [33]

Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be volatile and weak [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The glass futures market was weak last week, with the 09 contract approaching 1000 points on Friday. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and resumption of one production line. The national factory inventory remained high and increased slightly, mainly in the Northeast and Central China regions. The spot prices in North China generally decreased, and the profit from coal - gas production slightly declined. The demand side remained weak, and although the price cut of spot goods drove some downstream purchases, most deep - processing orders showed no signs of increase. With the approaching of the rainy season, manufacturers are more willing to reduce inventory, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The weak demand expectation during the off - season and the lack of major favorable policies in the real estate sector will suppress the market. Technically, the short - term trend of the 09 contract remains downward, and it is expected that the glass market will operate in a volatile and weak manner [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to be volatile and weak. The main reasons include the weak operation of glass futures last week, the increase in supply and inventory, the decline in spot prices and profits, the weak demand, the approaching of the rainy season leading to stronger inventory reduction willingness of manufacturers, and the lack of major favorable policies in the real estate sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 1000 points and wait for new short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2] 02 & 03 Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of May 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1200 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (-30) in Central China, and 1340 yuan/ton (-30) in East China. The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1005 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [8][9] - **Price Difference and Basis**: As of May 16, the price difference between soda ash and glass was 284 yuan/ton (+13). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 125 yuan/ton (-41), and the 09 - 01 price difference was - 57 yuan/ton (-13) [12] 04 Profit - **Production Process Profits**: The cost of the natural - gas production process was 1609 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of - 269 yuan/ton (-32); the cost of the coal - gas production process was 1159 yuan/ton (-4), with a gross profit of 41 yuan/ton (-16); the cost of the petroleum - coke production process was 1206 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of - 66 yuan/ton (-32) [19][22] - **Fuel Prices**: On May 16, the price of industrial natural gas in Hebei was 4.02 yuan/m³, the price of Dongming Petrochemical 3B petroleum coke was 1600 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 490 yuan/ton [22] 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 156,505 tons/day (unchanged). Currently, there are 222 production lines in operation. Last week, two production lines in Hebei underwent cold repairs, and one production line was restarted [24] 06 Inventory - As of May 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,808.2 million weight boxes (+52.2). Among them, the inventory in North China was 1,068 million weight boxes (+3.9), in Central China was 747.1 million weight boxes (+16.6), in East China was 1,556 million weight boxes (-4.6), in South China was 1,053.1 million weight boxes (+4.2), in Southwest China was 1,240.5 million weight boxes (-5.9), the inventory in Shahe factories was 334 million weight boxes (unchanged), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 497 million weight boxes (+38) [32] 07 Deep - processing - The production - sales rate of float glass last week was 99.03% (+12.59%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass on May 16 was 50.2% (+0.5%). The available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - May were 10.4 days (+0.1) [34] 08 & 09 Demand - **Automobile Market**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 and a year - on - year increase of 213,000), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 and a year - on - year increase of 231,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in April was 905,000, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [44] - **Real Estate Market**: In March, China's real estate completion area was 42.9606 million m² (a year - on - year decrease of 12%), new construction was 63.8252 million m² (-19%), construction in progress was 77.3309 million m² (-33%), and commercial housing sales were 111.234 million m² (-2%). From May 5th to May 11th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.68 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year decrease of 15%). In March, real estate development investment was 918.443 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 10%) [50] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - **Price and Basis**: As of May 16, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1400 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1625 yuan/ton (+50) in South China. The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1289 yuan/ton last Friday (down 16). The basis of the 09 contract of soda ash in Central China last Friday was 11 yuan/ton (+16) [57][59][60] - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1442 yuan/ton (-32), with a gross profit of 65 yuan/ton (+15); the cost of the co - production process was 1656 yuan/ton (-38), with a gross profit of 288 yuan/ton (+13) [61] - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 677,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 63,000), including 369,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 38,000) and 307,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 25,000). The loss was 168,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 64,600). The number of exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts last weekend was 2844 (a month - on - month decrease of 499). As of May 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.712 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 10,700), including 883,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 11,100) and 828,700 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 400) [77] - **Apparent Consumption and Production - sales Rate**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 358,800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 80,600), and for light soda ash was 336,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,800). The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.42% (a month - on - month increase of 2.35%) [78]

铝周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆库存： ◆策略建议： 沪铝：建议观望为主。 氧化铝：建议观望为主。 2025-05-19 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 近日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环 比增加10万吨至8685万吨，全国氧化铝库存324.6万吨，周度环比减少4.2万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场 处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。山东地区某氧化铝企业150万吨氢氧化铝项目、广西地区某氧化铝企业二期200万吨、北方某大 型氧化铝企业二期两条共320万吨逐步贡献氧化铝产量。需要注意的是，氧化铝企业集中减产及检修，带来库存下降和阶段性提货 困难，贸易商及部分下游对现货需求量增加，近期氧化铝现货价格企稳反弹。电解铝运行产能4412.4万吨，周度环比增加0.5万吨。 四川省内铝企复产基本完成，广元弘昌晟预计本月满产；贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产 ...

碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - Defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - Oscillating upward [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Temporary waiting; Iron ore - Oscillating weakly; Coking coal and coke - Oscillating [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - Suggested to wait and see; Nickel - Suggested to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - Trading within a range; Gold - Build long positions on dips after sufficient price correction; Silver - Trading within a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Oscillating; Soda ash - Waiting and seeing; Caustic soda - Oscillating; Rubber - Oscillating weakly; Urea - Oscillating; Methanol - Oscillating; Plastic - Oscillating [1] - **Cotton Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - Oscillating and rebounding; Apple - Oscillating; PTA - Oscillating weakly [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs - Oscillating weakly; Eggs - Weakly trending; Corn - Oscillating strongly; Soybean meal - Oscillating weakly; Oils and fats - Limited rebound, short on rallies [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market analysis for various futures products. It takes into account multiple factors such as international trade relations, economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy impacts. For different futures products, it gives corresponding investment strategies based on their specific market situations, including waiting and seeing, trading within a range, shorting on rallies, and building long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance Index - **Market Situation**: Influenced by events like the US losing its AAA rating, trade tariff concerns, and domestic policy adjustments. It is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Defensive waiting [1][5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as short - term capital tightness, large - scale bond issuances, and economic data releases. In the short term, it may oscillate upward, but next week there are many disturbing factors and the market may be slightly weak [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term optimism, oscillating upward [1][5] Black Building Materials Rebar - **Market Situation**: The price was weak last Friday. Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations improved, and domestic monetary policy was favorable, but the market expects fiscal policy support. Industrially, demand is about to face seasonal weakness, and supply - demand contradictions may gradually emerge. Currently, the price is at a relatively low level, and it is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating [7] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated last week. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is still at a high level. However, the positive sentiment from tariff easing is fading, and domestic demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate in a range [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, suggested to wait and see or focus on 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: Coking coal supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak, with prices under pressure. Coke supply is relatively abundant, and demand is mainly based on rigid needs, with prices in a weak - balance state and expected to oscillate [9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, neutral waiting and seeing [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Situation**: Global trade tensions have eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamental logic. Supply may decline in the future, and consumption is stable. With low inventory, prices may continue to oscillate strongly at a high level [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: Cautious trading within a range [11] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Alumina production capacity is in a state of mixed changes, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing slightly. Demand is expected to weaken, and the sustainability of price rebounds is to be observed [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see [12] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Trade tensions have eased, and the market has adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Nickel costs are firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, suggested to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] Tin - **Market Situation**: Production is increasing, and raw material supply is tight. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventories are at a medium level. Price fluctuations are expected to increase [15]. - **Investment Strategy**: Trading within a range, referring to the 06 contract operating range of 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [15] Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations, US economic data, and the Fed's policy stance, prices are expected to oscillate with increased volatility [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: Gold - Build long positions on dips after sufficient price correction; Silver - Trading within a range [1][17] Energy and Chemicals PVC - **Market Situation**: Macro - sentiment has improved after Sino - US trade talks, but demand is still weak due to the real - estate market, and supply is expected to increase. The price is at a low level, and the rebound space is limited [20]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, paying attention to the pressure at 5100 [19] Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is affected by tariffs and seasonal factors. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short at high levels [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, paying attention to the pressure at 2600 [21] Rubber - **Market Situation**: Macro - positive factors are fading, and supply is expected to increase while demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating weakly, paying attention to the pressure at 15300 [24] Urea - **Market Situation**: Supply is stable, and demand from agricultural fertilizers is about to be released. Exports also have an impact. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the support at 1850 [27] Methanol - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, and downstream demand has limited short - term carrying capacity. It is greatly affected by the macro - environment and the chemical sector, and is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wide - range oscillation, referring to the range of 2200 - 2380 [28] Plastic - **Market Situation**: Supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and demand has both positive and negative factors. The market expectation is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, referring to the range of 6950 - 7350 and paying attention to the support at 7200 [30] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: Spot prices are firm, but the futures market is affected by insufficient maintenance. Supply is still high, and downstream demand is not optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [31]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating weakly, waiting and seeing [31] Cotton Industry Chain Cotton - **Market Situation**: Global cotton supply and demand are still loose, but Sino - US trade negotiations have made progress, and prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [33]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating and rebounding [32] Apple - **Market Situation**: The post - holiday market is stable, and inventory is low. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, but macro risks need to be noted [33]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating [33] PTA - **Market Situation**: Cost has declined, and although supply and demand are in a state of de - stocking, prices are under pressure due to external factors. It is expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating within the range of 4200 - 4300 [34] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak in the off - season. Prices are under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Weakly oscillating, short on rallies, paying attention to support and resistance levels [36] Eggs - **Market Situation**: Short - term prices are at a low level, and demand may increase before the Dragon Boat Festival, but supply is accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is advisable to short on rallies [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rallies, paying attention to the pressure at 3000 for the 06 contract, and taking a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [37] Corn - **Market Situation**: Short - term price increases are limited by supply increases, but there is support below. In the long term, supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes. It is advisable to go long on dips [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating at a high level, going long on dips at the lower edge of the range, and paying attention to 7 - 9 positive spreads [39] Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Short - term supply is increasing, and prices are expected to fall. In the long term, costs are increasing, and prices are expected to be strong. It is advisable to short on rallies in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating weakly, short on rallies in the short term (before mid - June) for the 09 contract, go long on dips in the long term, paying attention to the support at 2830, and focusing on 9 - 1 positive spreads [40] Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as international crude oil prices and supply and demand of various oils and fats, short - term prices are回调, but the decline is limited. In the long term, prices may stop falling and rebound in the third quarter [44]. - **Investment Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to support levels, and temporarily exit the strategy of widening the spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts [40]

2025-5-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 铜周报：中美关税降温，铜价走势仍强 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 上周沪铜偏强震荡，截至上周五收至78140元/吨，周涨幅0.89%。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明互降关税，同时美国通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价有所提振。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 24-03-20 24-03-28 24-04-09 24-04-17 24-04-25 24-05-08 24-05-16 24-05-24 24-06-03 24-06-12 24-06-20 24-06-28 24-07-08 24-07-16 24-07-24 24-08-01 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of May, the global oil market experienced significant events, and domestic oil prices first declined and then rebounded, with continued differentiation among varieties. The short - term domestic oil market will correct, constrained by factors such as the slump in international crude oil and US soybean oil prices and the expectation of improved supply. However, the macro - improvement brought about by the warming of Sino - US relations and the positive impact of the USDA May report limit the decline. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in the arrival volume of soybeans and palm oil in the second quarter will drag the overall oil market down, and it will stop falling and rebound in the third quarter due to factors such as the decrease in the sown area of new soybean and rapeseed crops in North America and possible weather speculation[1][2][5]. - For trading strategies, the short - term rebound of bean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts for September delivery is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up or short - sell after the rebound ends. For arbitrage, the general trend of the widening spread between bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts for September delivery remains unchanged, but the process of upward repair of the spread will not be smooth, and it is recommended to enter the market in a rolling manner on dips[3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Palm Oil - Short - term: The seasonal production increase season will drive the accumulation of inventory in the producing areas and open the window for domestic purchases. Under the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand at home and abroad, the palm oil contract for September delivery is likely to decline in the second quarter. However, factors such as the possible improvement in export demand after the price decline in the producing areas, the disturbance on the international crude oil and macro - sides will intensify the fluctuations during the decline[6]. - Malaysia: In April, Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased, but the production increase of 21.52% was much larger than the export increase of 9.62%, resulting in a continued rise in the ending inventory to 1870000 tons, higher than market expectations. In the next few months, the production is expected to increase, and the SSPOMA data shows that the production from May 1 - 10 increased by 22.31% month - on - month. After the price decline, export demand is expected to improve, and the strong purchasing willingness of major importing countries may slow down the inventory accumulation speed[7]. - Indonesia: In February, production decreased slightly month - on - month, but exports increased significantly, and the ending inventory dropped to 4140000 tons. From March to April, due to factors such as Ramadan, the rainy season, and the transfer of export demand from Malaysia, the supply was weak and demand was strong, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The precipitation in 2024 may affect the production recovery from May to July 2025, but the abundant precipitation from October to December 2024 is beneficial for the production increase in the third quarter of 2025. However, the B40 plan and the increase in palm oil exports may prevent smooth inventory accumulation[9]. - China: In April, the domestic palm oil market continued to be in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory remaining below 400000 tons. After the price decline in late April, the import profit improved significantly, and a large number of new purchases were made from late April to early May. It is estimated that the arrival volume from May to July will be 228000, 228000, and 12000 tons respectively, and the inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound from May[13]. - Medium - to - long term: Until October 2025 is the traditional production increase season for palm oil. The continuous production increase will put pressure on prices in the second and third quarters. After that, as the producing areas enter the seasonal production decline season, prices will strengthen again[16]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are still weak. Although factors such as the improvement of macro - sentiment, the positive impact of the USDA May report, and the favorable news of the US biodiesel policy stimulate a short - term rebound, the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans from May to July and the normal weather in the early sowing period of new US soybean crops limit the rebound height, and the overall trend is weak and volatile, with the domestic market weaker than the international market[17]. - South America: The 24/25 soybean harvest in South America is a foregone conclusion. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is 218 million tons, an increase of 15.29 million tons year - on - year. The export data of soybeans and soybean products in 2025 have also increased significantly. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the decline in the basis of Brazilian soybeans has weakened the cost support for domestic soybean oil[18]. - US: The USDA May report estimates that the sown area of new US soybean crops in the 25/26 season will decrease by 4.13% year - on - year, and the supply - demand situation will gradually change from loose to tight. However, it is still in the early sowing period, and there is uncertainty. In the short term, there is rainfall in the Midwest in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial for sowing, and there is no opportunity for weather speculation[21]. - Policy: The future development of the US biofuel policy and Sino - US tariff issues needs attention. The market expects an increase in the biodiesel blending volume in 2026, but the actual blending target is uncertain. The extension of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is also uncertain. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs has a limited impact on soybean purchases in the second quarter but may affect the market in the fourth quarter[22][24]. - China: The domestic soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 654400 tons, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future[26]. - Medium - to - long term: In the third and fourth quarters, the selling pressure of Brazilian soybeans will gradually ease. Possible weather speculation in North America and the possible difficulty in importing US soybeans if the Sino - US trade dispute intensifies again will help the long - term soybean oil price to strengthen and raise the price center[28]. Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil contract for September delivery has been the strongest among the three oils. Due to China's additional 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the long - term is expected to decline. Coupled with the tight supply - demand situation of old - crop rapeseed in Canada and the possible reduction in new - crop production, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain its strong position. However, without policy support, it is difficult for rapeseed oil to have an independent sharp rise in the second quarter when the overall trend of soybean and palm oil is weak[29]. - Abroad: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is very tight, which has supported the continuous strengthening of the rapeseed oil price since late March. The production has decreased, while domestic consumption and exports have increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped significantly. The sown area of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season is expected to decline, and there is a risk of drought in some areas, which may lead to weather speculation during the sowing period[30]. - China: From January to March, the continuous large - scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and the sluggish consumption have led to inventory accumulation. As of May 9, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was as high as 863900 tons. However, due to the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and the anti - dumping investigation, the far - month rapeseed supply is expected to tighten, which will support the price of rapeseed oil in the third and fourth quarters[31].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 防守观望 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： 建议观望 | | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： 观望。 | | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡反弹 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡运行 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： ...