Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is to defend and wait and see [2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is to be bullish in the short - term [4] 2. Core Views Stock Index - Trump talked with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Putin is willing to draft a peace memorandum with Ukraine, and Zelensky is also willing to sign a peace memorandum and conduct negotiations but refuses territorial compromise and withdrawal. Fed officials poured cold water on interest - rate cuts, hinting that rates may stay high until at least September. China's April social retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, industrial added - value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1%, January - April urban fixed - asset investment rose 4%, and national real - estate development investment fell 10.3% year - on - year. China's Ministry of Commerce demanded the US to correct its actions. Without a clear market driver, the stock index may move in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The bond market is in an environment of weak economic recovery, and the trading logic is returning to pricing the endogenous economic momentum. The market's expectation of a deposit - rate cut is reasonable due to the narrowing net interest margin of banks. A new round of deposit - rate adjustment is a measure to match the decline in policy rates, and stabilizing the interest margin is a long - term task. The rumored cut in deposit rates is higher than that of policy rates, providing new support for the decline in yields [3] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock - index futures rose 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.15% respectively [6] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury - bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.0%, 0.03%, and 0.0% respectively [9] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible volatile movement with adjustment risks [7] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a volatile movement [10] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3843.20 | 0.05 | 48882 | 149439 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2688.80 | 0.05 | 27081 | 51445 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5623.00 | 0.09 | 51297 | 118428 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5975.40 | 0.15 | 140984 | 192261 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.61 | 0.02 | 57954 | 82926 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.73 | - 0.00 | 42586 | 66890 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.32 | 0.03 | 43076 | 47914 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.38 | - 0.00 | 48335 | 87939 | [12]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区间【2320，2400】操 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The PVC market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand, with limited fundamental drivers and macro factors playing a dominant role. The expected rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to macro news [2]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory, alumina production, and exports [3]. - The rubber market has a weak upward drive due to strong supply expectations and weak downstream demand, despite some short - term price support [4][5]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate, with price support from fertilizer demand and price pressure from exports [6]. - The methanol market is expected to slow down its decline, with a reference range of 2200 - 2350 for the 2509 contract [7][8]. - The plastic market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 for the 2505 contract, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and other factors [9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 19, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4948 yuan/ton (-11), with the Changzhou market price at 4840 yuan/ton (0). The current macro sentiment has improved, and the inventory is high but slightly lower than last year. In the long - term, demand is weak and supply is expected to increase. The short - term tariff has eased, but its impact on demand remains. The expected rebound space is limited [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 19, the SH09 contract closed at 2535 yuan/ton (-32). The national factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda increased. Supply pressure is large, and demand is affected by tariffs. The non - aluminum industry is in a slow - stocking phase, and the alumina industry has mixed production situations. The short - term market is oscillating, and the 09 contract should be shorted in the medium - term [3]. Rubber - On May 19, the RU price rose slightly due to the storage acquisition news. Short - term raw material prices are high, but supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak. The inventory in Qingdao has a mixed trend, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased [4][5]. Urea - The 2509 contract of urea closed at 1847 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. Supply is stable, and demand for fertilizer is expected to be released. Exports have some elasticity, but there is price pressure. The price is expected to oscillate, with support and resistance levels to be monitored [6]. Methanol - The 2509 contract of methanol closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 1.52%. Supply is relatively abundant, downstream demand is weak, and the price decline is expected to slow down, with a reference range of 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. Plastic - On May 19, the 2509 contract of plastic closed at 7238 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Supply has decreased due to maintenance, and exports have increased in the short - term. However, internal demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. The market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to be oscillating strongly. The supply of cotton is tight this year, with the 09 contract likely to rise in the short - and medium - term. However, the 01 contract may face a more relaxed supply situation due to expected new cotton production in Xinjiang. The price is affected by the macro - environment, especially the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. It is recommended to hedge at the rebound high this year [1]. - PTA is in a range - bound oscillation. The cost end is loose, the downstream is wait - and - see, and the short - term domestic PTA spot market may continue to be under pressure [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is in a range - bound oscillation. The cost end has declined, and the supply - demand pattern is favorable, but there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is in a range - bound oscillation. Although the price has rebounded, considering the upcoming off - season in the terminal market and the end of upstream spring maintenance, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - Sugar is oscillating. Internationally, the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started, and the market has mixed expectations. Domestically, factors are also mixed, and the sugar price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [3]. - Apples are in a high - level oscillation. The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high, but macro - risks need to be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - In April 2025, China's economic growth was stable. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, the service production index increased by 6%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%. From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.1% [7]. - The US leading economic index in April 2025 dropped by 1% to 99.4 points, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [7]. 3.2 Each Variety's Fundamental Information Tracking Cotton - As of the end of April 2025, the commercial inventory was 415 tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 tons. If the monthly consumption is 65 tons, the commercial inventory will be 155 tons by the end of August, tighter than in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the price is likely to rise in the short - and medium - term. The 01 contract may face a more relaxed supply situation due to expected new cotton production in Xinjiang [1]. - On May 19, 2025, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. PTA - As of May 14, 2025, the average PTA processing interval in China was 390.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.68%. The domestic supply increased slightly, and the processing interval decreased significantly [8]. - As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate in China was 74.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year increase of 4.68%. The domestic PTA output was 129.67 tons, a decrease of 0.54 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7 tons from the same period last year [8][9]. Ethylene Glycol - As of May 14, 2025, the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The output was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 1.32% from the previous week [12]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, 2025, the weekly output of domestic polyester short - fiber was 16.69 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% [10][11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the average polymerization cost of domestic polyester short - fiber was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.35%. The industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 86.41% [11]. Sugar - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) predicts that the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season will be 480 - 500 tons. The sugar production in the 2024/25 season as of May 15 was 2,574 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from the same period last year [11]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 547 tons. The expected sugar production in India in the 2024/25 season is 2,609 tons, lower than the previous forecast [11][12]. - In April 2025, China imported 13 tons of sugar, an increase of 7.57 tons year - on - year. From January to April, the total sugar imports were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 97.91 tons year - on - year [13]. Apple - As of May 14, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas of China was 195.10 tons, a decrease of 33.76 tons from the previous week. The current inventory is at a low level in the past five years [14]. - In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting fruit farmer's general - grade apples is 4.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and the price of 70 starting semi - commercial apples is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of fruit farmer's third - grade apples is 2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and the price of fruit farmer's 80 above general - grade apples is 2.8 - 3.5 yuan/jin [4][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is favorable, but the fundamentals of non - ferrous metals are mixed. Copper may maintain a volatile pattern, aluminum requires observation, nickel is expected to oscillate weakly, and tin price volatility may increase [1][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract 06 dropped 0.63% to 77,820 yuan/ton. The macro trading sentiment has warmed up, but the fundamentals are weakening with demand showing signs of decline and inventory starting to accumulate at a low level. The spot premium may be under pressure, and it may maintain a volatile pattern [1] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices dropped significantly. The downstream's low purchasing willingness led to light trading during the day [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,334 tons to 61,913 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 174,325 tons [16] Aluminum - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract 07 fell 0.20% to 20,110 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has affected alumina prices. Alumina production capacity and inventory are changing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - In the spot market, the aluminum market's trading was stable with most areas having a small premium, while the Guangdong market was at a discount. The alumina market's trading heat continued to rise [8] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 323 tons to 62,497 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 393,450 tons [16] Nickel - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract 06 dropped 0.67% to 123,850 yuan/ton. The macro situation has changed, and the supply - demand relationship in the nickel market is complex. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [5] - In the spot market, some merchants replenished their stocks at low prices at the beginning of the week, but overall trading activity needs further improvement [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 23,471 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 6,786 tons to 202,008 tons [16] Tin - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract 06 fell 0.22% to 264,860 yuan/ton. Tin production and import - export data have changed. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine resumption. The price volatility may increase, and it is necessary to focus on supply and demand [6] - In the spot market, merchants replenished their stocks at low prices for essential needs [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 64 tons to 8,119 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 5 tons to 2,740 tons [16] Zinc - In the spot market, the price of zinc dropped. The market trading was lackluster, with loose supply leading to a decline in the premium and weak trading [9][10] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 474 tons to 1,701 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 160,800 tons [16] Lead - In the spot market, the price of lead dropped. The downstream replenished stocks as needed, and the overall trading was average [11][12] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 126 tons to 50,047 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 246,350 tons [16]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 131（+3）。宏观方面，中美会谈成 果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场 仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再 度去化，但是需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动 减产意愿不足，后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺 纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面， 政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景 下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 762 元/湿吨（-3）。普氏 62% 指数 100.35 美元/吨（-0.75），月均 99.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 83 元/ 吨（+2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706. ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 20 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 14.7-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加， 且生猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加 快出栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转 热，猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不 过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增 加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出 栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格 波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of the feed and breeding industry is gradually emerging, with high supply in the short - to - medium term and weak demand, which will put pressure on prices of related products. For pigs, there is a risk of price decline; for eggs, the price is under pressure due to slow capacity clearance; for corn, the price has short - term support and long - term upward drive, but the upside space is limited [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the national spot price was 14.76 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; Henan pig price was 14.91 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week; the quotation of live hog 2509 was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 09 contract was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton from last week. Pig prices fluctuated weakly, and the market was in a stalemate [4][11]. - **Supply Side**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows increased steadily. In the context of stable epidemics, the supply from April to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity was reduced, the reduction was limited. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter still exists. The number of piglets from November 2024 to February 2025 increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased [4][61]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate increased slightly, but the slaughter volume decreased. It is currently the off - season for consumption. High temperatures have led to a decrease in terminal consumption, and the slaughter volume is difficult to improve under the background of losses for slaughtering enterprises [4][61]. - **Cost Side**: The price of piglets decreased slightly, and the price of binary reproductive sows was stable. The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4][61]. - **Weekly Summary**: In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased, and the supply pressure was accumulating. The demand was weak, but there was still some secondary fattening. The overall supply - demand game intensified, and pig prices fluctuated frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to strong supply and weak demand [4][61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the rebound pressure level. The pressure level for 07 is 13,800 - 14,000, and the support level is 13,200 - 13,300; for 09, the pressure level is 14,300 - 14,500, and the support level is 13,600 - 13,800. Sell out - of - the - money call options for 09 [4][61]. 3.2 Egg - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg contract 2506 closed at 2,894 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 54 yuan/500 kg, 61 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. Egg prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week [5][90]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in May was large, and the slaughter of culled chickens increased but not significantly, so the supply pressure was still high. From February to April 2025, the high number of replenished chicks means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The capacity clearance may take time [5][90]. - **Demand Side**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate procurement demand. However, high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand is relatively limited [5][90]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support egg prices, but the high supply is not alleviated, so egg prices are under pressure. In the long - term, the high supply trend is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to near - term culling and raw material cost fluctuations [5][90]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the 06 contract, adopt a wait - and - see strategy; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to short. Pay attention to the pressure level of 3,750 - 3,800 for 08, and the impact of feed and culling [5][90]. 3.3 Corn - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the corn平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn contract 2507 closed at 2,335 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 15 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday. Corn prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term [6]. - **Supply Side**: As corn prices rose to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increased, increasing the supply. However, the primary grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to traders. The market is bullish, and traders are firm in their asking prices. At the same time, the inventories at north - south ports are gradually decreasing, which supports the price [6]. - **Demand Side**: The increase in the inventory of livestock and poultry has driven the recovery of feed demand. However, the increase in the price of corn has led to an increase in the procurement of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is in a loss, with a decline in the start - up rate and limited incremental demand [6]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the reduction of primary grain sources and the bullish market sentiment support the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, driving the price up, but the upside space is limited due to the supply of substitutes [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a generally bullish view. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level (2,320 - 2,400), and buy at the lower end of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall investment strategy for the black metal industry is that the price fluctuation range is limited, and interval trading is the main approach. For specific varieties, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading for rebar and hot - rolled coils, adopt a long - September and short - January strategy for iron ore, and maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance for coking coal and coke [4][33][58][59][108]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to fluctuate due to low valuation and upcoming demand weakening [4]. - **Market Review**: The price first rose and then fell last week. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3210 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed at 3082 yuan/ton, also up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis remained stable at 128 yuan [12]. - **Steel Mill Profits**: Long - process steel mill profits improved, with an estimated profit of about 149 yuan/ton in East China. Short - process profits remained stable, with a flat - electricity profit of about - 114 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 59.31% (+0.44%) [17]. - **Futures Valuation**: The futures price is lower than the EAF valley - electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level [19]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Last week, production increased by 3.0 tons to 226.53 tons, apparent demand increased by 46.39 tons to 260.29 tons, and inventory decreased by 33.76 tons to 619.87 tons [27]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term operation or take profit on short positions. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [33]. - **Valuation**: Spot prices rose, with the Shanghai 4.75 hot - rolled coil at 3290 yuan/t, up 70 yuan/t week - on - week. Futures prices strengthened, with the 10 - contract closing at 3226 yuan/t, up 69 yuan/t week - on - week. The basis strengthened by 4 yuan to 84 yuan [39]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material prices varied. Coke prices in Shanxi decreased by 49 yuan/t, Tangshan scrap steel prices increased by 40 yuan/t, and PB powder prices in Rizhao increased by 25 yuan/t. The profit of hot - rolled coils rebounded to about - 69 yuan/t (+8 yuan/t), and the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 58.87% (+0.84%) [41]. - **Supply**: Last week, the output of five major steel products was stable, with daily hot - metal output at 244.77t/d (- 0.87t/d week - on - week). The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, with the MS small - sample output at 311.98wt (- 8.40wt week - on - week) [44]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products weakened, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils fluctuated, with the MS small - sample at 329.53wt (+20.00wt week - on - week) [48]. - **Inventory**: The mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased to a historical low, with the MS small - sample at 78.22wt (- 6.58wt), and the social inventory continued to decline, with the MS small - sample at 269.35wt (- 10.97wt) [54]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: Neutral and wait - and - see [58][59]. - **Coking Coal** - **Price**: Domestic coking coal spot prices declined. The price of coking coal in Shanxi was 1150.00 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the price of Mongolian coal was 1015.00 yuan/ton (- 5.00). The futures price fluctuated and was 852.50 yuan/ton (- 25.00) [66]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic main - producing areas was generally stable, with some areas experiencing phased production cuts. The daily output of 110 coal - washing plants was 52.81 tons (- 0.29), and the operating rate was 62.08% (- 0.34) [75]. - **Demand**: The coke market had a continuous price - cut expectation, and downstream coking enterprises maintained a low - inventory procurement strategy [58]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly to 2632.11 tons (- 8.09). Mine inventory increased to 410.50 tons (+20.10), while downstream steel mill and coking plant inventory decreased to 1676.14 tons (- 27.69), and port inventory decreased to 545.47 tons (- 0.50) [83]. - **Coke** - **Price**: The spot price was 1380.00 yuan/ton (- 50.00), and the futures price fluctuated and was 1445.50 yuan/ton (- 1.00) [87]. - **Supply**: The production of main - producing areas was stable, with some areas continuing to limit production due to profit pressure [59]. - **Demand**: Steel mills maintained a low - inventory management model, and the terminal demand had a seasonal weakening expectation [59]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly to 1039.49 tons (- 9.66). Coking plant inventory decreased to 94.31 tons (- 0.13), steel mill inventory decreased to 663.80 tons (- 7.23), and port inventory decreased to 281.38 tons (- 2.30) [103]. Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: Long - September and short - January. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [108]. - **Market Review**: The spot prices of various grades of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased. The 09 - contract futures price closed at 728 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week [110]. - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises was 63.89% (+1.27% week - on - week), the daily output of iron ore concentrate was 49.88 tons (+0.98), and the inventory was 103.27 tons (+2.71) [130]. - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 9, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 tons (- 118 week - on - week), with Australian shipments at 1,797.2 tons (+28) and Brazilian shipments at 625.2 tons (- 146) [136]. - **Port Situation**: On May 9, the arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2,354.6 tons (- 95.1 week - on - week), the number of ships at 47 ports was 86 (+2), and the average daily port clearance volume was 323.89 tons (+8.68) [141]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 domestic ports was 14,166.09 tons (- 72.62 week - on - week), and the inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 8,961.16 tons (+2.18). The total inventory decreased by 70.44 tons [142]. - **Steel Mill Demand**: The profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 59.31% (+0.44% week - on - week), the daily hot - metal output was 244.77 tons (- 0.87), and the furnace charge ratio was sinter ore 73.31%, pellet ore 14.55%, and lump ore 12.14% [151].

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-05-19 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 01 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 02 甲醇：下游需求承接有限 高位回落 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 01 1 市场变化：尿素价格延续震荡运行，盘面价格重心小幅下移，5月16日尿素2509合约收盘价1892元/吨，较上周收 盘基本持平。尿素现货价格坚挺，河南市场日均价1907元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，山东市场日均价1946元/吨， 较上周上调76元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率87.5%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.74%，较上周上调 5.45个百分点，尿素日均产量19.92万吨。新疆新冀能源150万吨/年装置试车成功，日产1560吨小颗粒尿素和 1098吨大颗粒 ...