1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets have been highly volatile, and non - ferrous metals may maintain a volatile trend after the holiday [1] - The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is affected by factors such as trade wars and global economic slowdown, and the upward space for prices is limited [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: During the domestic holiday, copper prices fluctuated significantly and declined slightly. After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot market of copper concentrates remains sluggish, TC continues to decline, and the pressure on smelters is increasing. The supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively tight, with significant inventory build - up in New York but significant inventory reduction in China and a decrease in LME inventory [3] - **Price Outlook**: After the holiday, Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to conduct cautious trading within the range of 74,500 - 78,500 [3] 3.2 Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price continued to decline after filling the downward gap and then maintained a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of bauxite is gradually improving, and the price is gradually decreasing. Alumina is in a state of mixed production, resumption, and reduction. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner after the holiday. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices within the range of 19,500 - 20,300 [3] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic zinc ore processing fee increase has slowed down significantly. Although there are smelter maintenance plans, the impact on refined zinc production is expected to be limited. The downstream consumption is expected to be flat [3] - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 [3] 3.4 Lead - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of secondary lead has been partially repaired but is still in a loss state. The supply of secondary raw materials is tight, but the primary supply remains at a high level. April is the off - season for lead - acid batteries, and the start - up rate has decreased [3] - **Price Outlook**: The market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and it is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 16,500 - 17,000 [3] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: The price was weakly volatile before the holiday. After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the domestic trade ore price may be prone to rise. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported by the high production of stainless steel, but the oversupply pattern has expanded [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to observe. The reference operating range for the main contract is 120,000 - 127,000 [3] 3.6 Tin - **Market Review**: After stabilizing, it showed a sideways volatile state [4] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore raw materials is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The overall inventory is at a medium level [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase. It is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 240,000 - 270,000 for the SHFE tin 06 contract, and continue to pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4] 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: It continued the downward trend and accelerated the decline after breaking through the support level [127] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the factory and port inventories increased. The electricity price decreased in May, and the cost decreased. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to reduce production, while enterprises in the southwest are gradually resuming production, but the low silicon price limits the progress [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The downward trend remained unchanged, and it continued to decline at a low level [4] - **Fundamentals**: The production in April decreased, and the import of lithium salt is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is good, but it is affected by the US tariff policy. The supply pressure is large, and the spot supply is becoming more relaxed [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to continue the weakly volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production arrangement of cathode material factories [4] 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4, the lowest in three months [14][15] - **US**: In April, the ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to the largest extent in five months, and the first - quarter GDP decreased by 0.3%. However, the non - farm employment increased by 177,000, significantly better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable [18][19][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the prices of hog, egg, and corn will experience fluctuations. The hog market is under supply pressure with increased supply and weakening demand; the egg market has both supply and demand increasing, with short - term demand supporting prices and long - term supply pressuring prices; the corn market is supported by reduced supply from the grassroots level and decreased imports in the short - term, but faces pressure from deep - processing losses and new wheat substitution in the long - term [6][55][92]. - In the long - term, the hog price is likely to decline due to strong supply and weak demand; the egg price is under pressure from increasing supply; the corn price has an upward drive but its upside is limited by substitutes [6][55][92]. Summary by Catalog 1. Hog 1.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the national hog price was 14.94 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from the end of last month; the Henan hog price was 14.75 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg. The main 09 futures price closed at 13910 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the end of last month, and the 09 contract basis was 840 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton [6]. 1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, with improved performance. From April to September, the supply is on the rise. The inventory decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, rebounded in February, and decreased by 0.66% month - on - month in March, still 3.56% higher than the normal level. The supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter. The number of piglets increased year - on - year from November 2024 to February 2025, so the second - quarter slaughter pressure is high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in April increased month - on - month, the slaughter weight increased, and the fat - to - standard price difference was inverted [6][17]. 1.3 Demand - The monthly slaughter enterprise's开工 rate first decreased and then increased. After the May Day holiday, the pork market demand will weaken, but it will improve near the Dragon Boat Festival. However, the slaughter enterprises are still in loss, and the demand increment is limited. In April, the average daily slaughter of key slaughter enterprises was 121412 heads, up 4.62% from the previous month and 8.52% year - on - year; the slaughter gross profit was - 30 yuan/head, down 4.5 yuan/head from the previous month; the national frozen product inventory was 16.84%, down 0.01% from the end of last month and 0.46% from last year [6]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The monthly piglet price decreased slightly, the breeding sow price was stable, and the breeding profit improved. As of April 30, the 15 - kg piglet sales price was 649 yuan/head, down 10 yuan/head from the end of last month; the binary sow price was 1634 yuan/head, unchanged from the end of last month. The breeding cost of enterprises with 5000 - 10000 sows was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of purchasing piglets for breeding was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous month. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was 145.34 yuan/head, up 24.34 yuan/head from the end of last month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 118.88 yuan/head, up 87.95 yuan/head from the previous month [6]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the hog price is under pressure, but the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on short positions and short at high prices after a rebound. For the 07 contract, the resistance level is 13800 - 13900, and the support level is 13200 - 13300; for the 09 contract, the resistance level is 14600 - 14700, and the support level is 13700 - 13800. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices, partially stop profiting, and re - enter after a rebound [6]. 2. Egg 2.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the end of March; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The main 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan/500 kg, up 74 yuan/500 kg from the end of March; the main contract basis was 58 yuan/500 kg, 86 yuan/500 kg stronger than at the end of March. The egg price first rebounded and then declined, and the futures followed the spot price [55]. 2.2 Supply - In May, the number of newly - opened laying hens corresponding to the replenishment in January 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with a large opening volume. Coupled with the non - increasing elimination of old hens, the supply continued to accumulate. In the long - term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse. In April 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion month - on - month and 0.089 billion year - on - year [55]. 2.3 Demand - In early April, the downstream replenishment demand after the Tomb - sweeping Festival and the approaching May Day holiday boosted the egg price. After the May Day holiday, the channel may have replenishment demand, and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand increases, so the seasonal consumption of eggs improves. As of the end of April, the monthly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 29500 tons, up 1.99% from March [55]. 2.4 Strategy Suggestion - The 06 contract is expected to fluctuate in a range after the May Day holiday. Pay attention to the performance of the 3100 resistance and 2900 support levels. Treat the 08 and 09 contracts with a bearish view in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and elimination [55]. 3. Corn 3.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main 2507 contract of corn was 2377 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main contract basis was - 97 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton stronger than at the end of March. The corn price first fluctuated narrowly and then rose rapidly at the end of the month, and the futures contract first fell and then rose [92]. 3.2 Supply - The grassroots grain sales are basically over, and the grain source has transferred to the trading end. Traders are reluctant to sell, and the supply is tight, which supports the price. However, after the price rises in May, traders' willingness to sell at high prices may increase, and there is a demand for making room for wheat in North China, which will increase the supply periodically. In March, the corn import was 80000 tons, the same as the previous month and a 95.3% year - on - year decrease. The import of international grains decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.3 Demand - The inventory of hogs and poultry is increasing, which drives the recovery of feed demand. Although wheat substitution has an impact on corn feed demand, it has not been carried out on a large scale, and the cost - effectiveness of corn is still high. The deep - processing industry is in loss, the operating rate has declined, and the demand increment is limited. As of April 25, the weekly feed corn inventory days were 35.74 days, an increase of 2.15 days from the end of March; the operating rate of sample deep - processing enterprises was 58.37%, a decrease of 5.45% from the end of March [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Generally, take a stable - to - strong view. Wait for the futures to pull back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices. For the 07 contract, pay attention to the 2400 resistance and 2280 - 2300 support levels; for the 09 contract, pay attention to the 2320 - 2330 support level [92].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to fluctuate, iron ore is expected to be weak in oscillation, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended to wait and see, nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate, and soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][19][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to be weak in oscillation [1][29][30] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are recommended to be short on rallies, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline in oscillation, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][31][38] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex and volatile, with factors such as trade policies, economic data, and geopolitical issues affecting the market [5][7][11] - Different industries and varieties have different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to specific circumstances [1][5][7] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, inventory levels, and seasonal factors, and risk control should be strengthened [7][19][20] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: The U.S. trade policy and domestic policies affect the market, and it is recommended to defend during the holiday [5] - Treasury bonds: Pay attention to the official PMI data in April, and the current interest rate trading needs to pay more attention to the safety margin [5] Black building materials - Rebar: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restriction policies [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [8] - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the changes in blast furnace hot metal production and steel mill raw material inventory digestion rhythm [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The price is expected to be strong in oscillation, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,200 - 20,000 [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 122,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton [15] - Tin: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range, with the reference range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract [16] - Gold and silver: The price is expected to be in an adjustment state, and it is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions, with the reference range of 760 - 802 for the SHFE gold 06 contract and 7,800 - 8,600 for the SHFE silver 06 contract [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations and the intensity of domestic stimulus policies [19] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 05 contract and the inventory removal situation [20] - Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply situation after the start of tapping [21][22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 1,730 - 1,850 [24] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 2,200 - 2,350 [26] - Plastic: The price is expected to be low in oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, the subsequent impact of the Iranian port, and the tariff game [28] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short call options, and the price is expected to be weak in oscillation [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton: The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near term [29] - Apples: The price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but attention should be paid to macro risks [29][30] - PTA: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 4,200 support level [30] Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies [31][32] - Eggs: It is recommended to be short on rallies, and the 06 contract is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [33][34] - Corn: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2,400 pressure level and the 2,280 - 2,300 support level for the 07 contract [34][36] - Soybean meal: It is recommended to be short on rallies in the short term and long on dips in the long term, and attention should be paid to the 2,900 support level [36][37] - Oils: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and attention should be paid to the 7,800 - 8,000, 8,300 - 8,400, and 9,600 pressure levels [38][43]

基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 29 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.3%至 77600 元/吨。隔夜 金属除锡外普遍上涨，美元隔夜下跌，投资者谨慎等待美国贸易政策的 进一步消息，并准备迎接一周密集的经济数据。由于美国政策动摇了人 们对美国资产可靠性的信心，美元创去年 7 月以来的最大月度跌幅。现 货市场，铜价重心下移，下游企业节前继续逢低备货，但备库逐渐进入 尾声，整体交投氛围表现一般。铜社会库存再度大幅去库，BACK 结构 月差拉大，持货商维持挺价惜售情绪。短期基本面整体继续偏强，但关 税大战带来的影响仍会在经济层面逐步显现，铜价潜在上行空间将受到 限制。中美博弈背景下铜价或维持高位震荡。技术上看，沪铜短期维持 偏强震荡，或向上回补跳空缺口，整体运行于 74500-78500 之间，关 注 78500 一线压力，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 铝： 截至 4 月 29 日收盘，沪铝主力 06 合约上涨 0.03%至 19930 元/吨。消 息面上，市场传闻俄铝宣布减产 10%，据了解俄铝是在去年底实施的减 产，不是增量信息。矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产 能周度环比上升 15 万吨至 873 ...

长江期货PTA月报 终端需求受限，聚酯远期偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-30 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 02 供应方面：减产降负，供应减少 03 需求方面：终端不佳，需求受限 04 逻辑与展望：终端受限，远期偏弱 目录 05 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 01 行情回顾-4月PTA先跌后反弹 n 4月PTA期货主力合约期价先跌后反弹，主要受 国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初，受美国 关税政策等不确定因素影响，国际油价暴跌，成 本端支撑不足，PTA价格重心持续下滑。另外， 终端外销订单暂缓或取消，传统旺季下终端负荷 下降，下游聚酯负荷缓慢下降，成品库存也处于 累库阶段，市场信心不足，价格走低；月中贸易 争端有所反复，下游多持观望态度，聚酯价格低 位震荡；月底关税争端有缓和迹象，商品情绪修 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The PVC market is in a state of over - supply and weak demand, with a bearish outlook. It is dominated by the macro - situation, and its valuation is low. The market is in a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and oscillating trend. Concerns include delivery volume, inventory, alumina production, exports, and maintenance scale [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. Attention should be paid to the later stage of the tapping season [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and high daily output. Currently, the demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. After the festival, attention should be paid to the sowing progress of crops [6]. - The methanol market has a reduction in domestic supply, stable downstream demand, and a differentiation between domestic and port inventories. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7][8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure, weak downstream demand, and neutral inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, port incidents, and tariff issues [9]. Group 3: Summary by Product PVC - On April 29, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4,949 yuan/ton (- 40). The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the export is restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, and the inventory is high. Recently, the inventory has been reduced, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 29, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton (- 10). The inventory has decreased slightly but is still high. There is support for exports, and the supply is sufficient, with demand growth limited [3]. Rubber - On April 29, the rubber market oscillated. The new rubber supply is expected to increase, and the tire start - up rate fluctuates. The inventory in China is accumulating. The sample enterprise utilization rate of semi - steel tires is 72.36% (down 1.84 percentage points), and that of full - steel tires is 65.79% (down 1.65 percentage points) [4][5]. Urea - The urea main contract fell 2.09% to close at 1,735 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the daily output is at a high level. The demand for compound fertilizers is weak, and the industrial demand is rising. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract fell 0.96% to close at 2,278 yuan/ton. The device utilization rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory shows a differentiation between domestic and port areas [7][8]. Plastic - On April 29, the plastic main contract fell 0.60% to close at 7,122 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is neutral. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US Commerce Secretary mentioned progress in some tariff negotiations, boosting US stocks. However, US economic data such as March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence index, and March commodity trade deficit were poor. China's President emphasized building a global innovation high - tech hub. With strong domestic strategic determination, the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low, and a defensive approach is recommended [1] Treasury Bond - The first PMI data after the tariff trade war will be released. The previous EPMI decline exceeded the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to whether the April official PMI is significantly weaker than expected. Although the downward trend of interest rates has not reversed, the market has fully priced in the rally, and the odds of going long have decreased after yields reached low levels. Whether yields can break previous lows depends on changes in fundamental data and the entry of allocation funds. Current interest rate trading should focus on the safety margin [2] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.21%, SSE 50 fell 0.35%, CSI 500 rose 0.23%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.70% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.13%, 0.69%, and 0.01% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,724.80 | - 0.2143 | 37,569 | 134,140 | | 2025/04/28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,621.20 | - 0.3498 | 20,683 | 43,068 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,487.20 | 0.2338 | 34,048 | 95,869 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,773.60 | 0.7047 | 116,166 | 159,461 | | 2025/04/28 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.120 | 0.2342 | 51,372 | 192,474 | | 2025/04/28 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.070 | 0.1322 | 50,163 | 157,294 | | 2025/04/28 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.980 | 0.6908 | 77,545 | 106,469 | | 2025/04/28 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.332 | 0.0059 | 34,240 | 93,075 | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile. The price of rebar futures is likely to oscillate, and the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets may also show a weak and volatile pattern [1][3][4][5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 185 (+5) [1]. - Macroscopically, Trump said he would "significantly reduce" high - tariffs on China on April 22, but China emphasized that no economic and trade negotiations had been carried out. The Politburo meeting on April 25 showed no strong stimulus signals [1]. - Industrially, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production remained stable, and the inventory removal speed was still fast. Steel demand usually declines seasonally in mid - to late May, and the peak season window in the first half of the year is short. There was speculation about steel mill production restrictions last Friday, but no official document has been issued yet [1]. - In terms of valuation, the rebar futures price has fallen to near the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, only higher than the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level. In terms of driving factors, the China - US tariff policy is expected to have repeated games, and the probability of large - scale stimulus policies in China in the short term is small. The real supply and demand are acceptable, but tariffs affect exports and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to whether the production restriction policy is implemented [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures market oscillated. Trump's statement about possible tariff reduction eased international trade tensions. The pig iron output increased unexpectedly, leading to expectations of a peak and subsequent decline. There were also concerns about the sustainability of exports [1]. - In terms of supply, global shipments were basically the same as last week, with an increase in Australian shipments and a decrease in Brazilian shipments. The port throughput decreased, some berthing pressure was released, and the port inventory increased [1]. - In terms of demand, pig iron output increased significantly, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased. Steel mills' resumption of production accelerated this week, finished product prices were stable, and steel mills' production enthusiasm increased. There were rumors of crude steel production restrictions last weekend, but no specific policy documents were seen. Even if true, the 50 million - ton production restriction is small compared to the total, and it is difficult to form a positive feedback. The iron ore market is in a stage of strong supply and demand but is about to enter the traditional off - season. Considering the possible peak of pig iron output and continued international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [1][3]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in major producing areas maintained stable production. Some coal types adjusted their quotes slightly due to inventory pressure, but the overall inventory pressure was controllable, and mainstream coal mines were reluctant to lower prices. Mongolian coal supply was limited due to low customs clearance at the Mongolian border and a sluggish auction market, and the support for port quotes weakened [4]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates, and rigid demand provided some support for coal prices. However, the slow repair of steel mill profits restricted the raw material replenishment space, and the market was skeptical about the sustainability of terminal demand. Downstream pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm was low, and the procurement rhythm of intermediate links slowed down significantly. The coking coal market may continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and the sustainability of high pig iron output [4]. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in major producing areas maintained normal production rhythms, and the overall capacity utilization rate remained stable [5]. - In terms of demand, the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces drove pig iron output to remain high, and the replenishment demand was released periodically. However, affected by the expected seasonal weakening of the terminal market, the procurement rhythm became more cautious. Some steel mills preferred stamp - charged coke with a higher cost - performance ratio, and the demand for top - charged coke was significantly differentiated. The market was skeptical about the external demand pressure in May and the resilience of steel demand, and steel mills' resistance to price increases of raw materials increased. The second - round price negotiation was deadlocked. The coke market is expected to oscillate in the short term supported by blast furnace rigid demand, but attention should be paid to the risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations and negative feedback in the industrial chain. Future attention should be paid to changes in blast furnace pig iron output and the digestion rhythm of steel mill raw material inventories [5]. Industrial and Economic News - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to issue the list of all projects for the "Two - Key" construction and central budgetary investment in 2025 by the end of June and set up new policy - based financial instruments to solve the problem of insufficient project construction capital [6]. - The "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" was released, with the number of items reduced from 117 to 106. It prohibits new production capacity of steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and coal chemical industry in key areas [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted measures for the 2025 Labor Day holiday. Starting from the settlement on April 29, the daily price limit for iron ore futures is 10% and the margin is 12%; for coke, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin remains unchanged; for coking coal, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin is 13% [6]. - As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the balance of personal housing loans was 38 trillion yuan, an increase of about 220 billion yuan, and a year - on - year increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared with the first quarter of last year [6]. - Trump signed an announcement on April 29 allowing a certain degree of compensation for automobile producers assembling cars in the US and importing auto parts. The compensation can offset part of the tariffs on auto parts, with a maximum of 3.75% of the retail price of the car in the first year and 2.5% in the second year. The 25% tariff on imported cars officially took effect on April 3, and the 25% tariff on key auto parts is planned to take effect on May 3 [6]. - The Dongguan Housing and Urban - Rural Development Bureau released a draft for soliciting opinions, encouraging new residential projects obtaining construction permits from May 1, 2025, to implement full - decoration. It also encourages the "sample - first" approach and a "menu - style" full - decoration model [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. In the short - term, most products show a trend of volatile fluctuations, while in the long - term, the supply and price trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, consumption, and policy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.2 - 16 yuan/kg, all stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the reduction of supply by large - scale enterprises at the end of the month and the resistance of small farmers support the price, but the increase in supply from secondary fattening and the weak demand limit the price increase. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The overall pig price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit, and short positions can be opened on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options on contracts 07 and 09 and take profit partially [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, and in Beijing 3.39 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the high price restricts the price increase, but the holiday demand and low inventory support the price. After the holiday, the price may be under pressure. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, but the impact of old chicken culling needs to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: For contract 06, hold a light position during the May Day holiday. Contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish in the long - term, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2]. Oil - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean oil主力 contract 07 fell 2.26% to 49.32 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil主力 contract 07 fell 0.53% to 3940 ringgit/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: For palm oil, the export increased in April, but the production also increased, and the inventory is expected to rise. In China, the supply and demand are both weak in April, but the supply will increase in May. For soybean oil, the South American supply is large in the second quarter, and the domestic supply will increase in the future. For rapeseed oil, the supply in Canada is tight, and the domestic inventory will gradually decrease [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for contracts 09 of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, and pay attention to the pressure levels [7]. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1052.5 cents/bushel, and the domestic M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply will increase with the arrival of soybeans and the increase in oil mill operation rate, and the price will decline. In the long - term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price up [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: short on rebounds for contract 09. Long - term: long on dips, and pay attention to the support level. Do long - short spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [7]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 29, the purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2406 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, but the market is optimistic about the future. In the long - term, the production reduction and decrease in imports drive the price up, but the substitutes limit the upside [7]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish in general, wait for dips to go long, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of most futures products showed fluctuations. For example, the CBOT soybean active contract fell 8.75 cents/bushel, the soybean meal主力 contract fell 21 yuan/ton, and the CBOT corn active contract fell 12 cents/bushel [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move in a range, while government bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore is expected to weaken slightly, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7]. - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move sideways, while soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][20]. - Cotton spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen slightly, and PTA is expected to weaken slightly [1][31]. - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline, and oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][32]. Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, supply and demand dynamics, and international trade relations [1][5]. - Tariff policies and trade frictions have a significant impact on the market, and investors need to pay attention to the development of these issues [5][7]. - The supply and demand situation of each product is different, and investors need to analyze the specific situation of each product to make investment decisions [7][12]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures are expected to move in a range due to the low probability of major positive policies before the holiday and the need for defensive strategies [5]. - Government bonds are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the low - volatility market may continue until clear policy signals or economic data are released [5]. Black building materials - Rebar is expected to move sideways. Although the current supply - demand situation is acceptable, the impact of tariffs on exports and the seasonal decline in demand may lead to weak market expectations. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs to be observed [7]. - Iron ore is expected to weaken slightly. The increase in iron - water production has led to expectations of a peak and decline, and concerns about the sustainability of exports. The supply and demand are both strong, but it is about to enter the traditional off - season [7]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways. The coking coal market may maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the coke market may maintain a tight supply - demand balance. The focus is on the release of terminal demand and the change of inventory [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to move in a high - level range. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is supported by the peak season. However, the upward space is limited by the impact of the trade war on the global economy [12]. - Aluminum is recommended for observation. The supply of the mine end is improving, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price may continue to rebound, but the overall situation needs to be further observed [14]. - Nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies. The supply is excessive, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The focus is on the impact of Indonesian policies and downstream demand [15]. - Tin is recommended for trading within a range. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price may fluctuate greatly [17]. - Gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range. The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and interest - rate expectations. The price is expected to be in an adjustment state [18]. Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term price is affected by macro factors and export and maintenance conditions [20]. - Caustic soda is expected to move sideways. The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. The focus is on inventory changes and export conditions [21]. - Rubber is expected to move sideways. The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The price is affected by factors such as weather, inventory, and demand [22]. - Urea is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is affected by factors such as production progress and inventory [24]. - Methanol is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and port supply [26]. - Plastic is expected to move sideways. The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by factors such as new capacity, demand, and inventory [28]. - Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure until sufficient maintenance occurs [28]. Cotton spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply. The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to observe in the near future [30]. - Apples are expected to strengthen slightly. The inventory is low, and the demand is good. The focus is on the fruit - setting situation [30]. - PTA is expected to weaken slightly. The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are not good. The price is under pressure [31]. Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [32]. - Eggs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are both increasing, and the risk of a decline after the May Day holiday needs to be guarded against. The long - term supply pressure is increasing [34]. - Corn is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes [35]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline in the short term and rise in the long term. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term cost is increasing and the supply is tightening [37]. - Oils and fats are expected to move sideways. The short - term price has certain upward momentum, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [38].