Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Insights - Tesla's FSD v14 has passed the "physical Turing test," marking a significant milestone in the practical application of AI in smart driving. This version enhances the system's ability to recognize emergency vehicles and obstacles, and introduces real-time navigation and path planning features [10][12]. - Samsung is advancing towards a fully self-developed mobile GPU, with plans to integrate its own architecture into future chips, aiming to establish a complete edge AI product ecosystem [13][15]. - Volcano Engine has launched an AI-native cloud solution for the gaming industry, which is expected to drive innovation and efficiency across the entire game development lifecycle [17][19]. Summary by Sections Smart Driving - Tesla's FSD v14 has been recognized for its advanced capabilities, including improved recognition of emergency vehicles and dynamic path planning, which signifies a shift from experimental to practical applications in smart driving [10][12]. - Companies to watch in the smart driving sector include Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence, and various Robotaxi firms [3]. Semiconductor and AI - Samsung's new Exynos 2600 chip, developed using 2nm technology, represents a significant step towards self-sufficiency in chip design, with plans to expand its GPU applications beyond smartphones to include AI-specific chips [13][15]. - The shift to self-developed GPUs is expected to enhance Samsung's control over product differentiation and innovation in AI applications [15]. Gaming Industry - Volcano Engine's AI-native cloud solution is being adopted by over 80% of leading gaming companies, facilitating innovation in game creation, development, and operation [17][19]. - The company aims to provide a comprehensive support system for partners, enhancing their delivery capabilities and market competitiveness [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates have significantly decreased, while long-distance shipping rates have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) dropped by 40.6% to 1354.35 points as of December 25. Meanwhile, shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe and the US have risen by 10.2% and 9.8% respectively [3][14] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a trial classification for the low-altitude economy, aiming to clarify the concept and boundaries of the industry. This classification includes a framework of "4 categories + 23 subcategories + 65 small categories" [3][15][16] - China's high-speed rail operating mileage has surpassed 50,000 kilometers, marking a significant milestone in global rail infrastructure. This expansion supports logistics networks and enhances regional connectivity [3][21] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - The Baltic Air Freight Index has shown a month-on-month decline, while domestic air freight volumes decreased by 2.03% in November 2025. Conversely, international air freight volumes increased by 14.88% [4][35] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a week-on-week increase of 6.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [39] - In November 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 180.60 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.00%, while revenue decreased by 3.70% [52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics. It also highlights opportunities in the low-altitude economy, road and rail sectors, and e-commerce logistics [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a price increase trend, while the price competition for lithium battery materials is intensifying [1]. - In the fourth quarter, which is the peak sales season for new energy vehicles, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, and attention should be paid to the verification progress of related materials and equipment companies [1]. - The report emphasizes a "de-involution" strategy as the main investment theme for photovoltaics, with the integration and acquisition of polysilicon production capacity becoming more proactive [1]. - The demand for wind power is expected to continue growing, with a focus on wind turbines and offshore wind power [1]. - The energy storage sector remains highly prosperous, with recommendations to focus on energy storage cells and large-scale integrated plants [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream hydrogen-based energy applications [1]. - The report suggests monitoring core suppliers in the nuclear fusion sector as it represents a long-term catalytic direction for future energy development [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The power equipment and new energy sector rose by 5.37% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.88% [10]. - The wind power sector saw the highest increase at 7.14%, followed by the photovoltaic sector at 6.56% [13]. Lithium Battery Market - The price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at approximately 98,000 RMB per ton, reflecting an 8% increase [25]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has also seen an upward trend, with prices for various models ranging from 0.285 to 0.425 RMB per watt-hour [26]. Photovoltaic Market - The price of polysilicon remains stable, with tight supply and weak downstream demand affecting price transmission [15]. - The price of silicon wafers has shown a significant increase, driven by rising silver prices and industry self-discipline [16]. - The price of battery cells has increased to 0.34 RMB per watt, with manufacturers actively raising prices due to cost pressures [17]. Energy Storage Market - The price of energy storage systems has rebounded, with prices for various configurations ranging from 0.40 to 0.82 RMB per watt-hour [27]. - The demand for energy storage remains strong, particularly in overseas markets, contributing to price stability [26].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [1][9] Industry Dynamics - As of December 22-28, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 34 saw price increases, 32 saw declines, and 34 remained stable. 55% of products had month-on-month average prices rising, while 35% fell, and 10% remained unchanged [8][27] - International oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude futures closing at $56.74 per barrel (up 0.14%) and Brent crude at $60.64 per barrel (up 0.28%) [28] - MDI prices slightly decreased, with pure MDI averaging 18,100 CNY/ton (down 4.23% week-on-week) and polymer MDI at 14,300 CNY/ton (down 2.39%) [29] - Acetic acid prices increased to 2,496 CNY/ton (up 2.93% week-on-week) [30] Investment Recommendations - As of December 27, 2025, the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 25.60, at the 76.58% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio is 2.33, at the 61.10% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical industry P/E ratio is 13.17, at the 37.56% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio is 1.28, at the 36.98% historical percentile [9] - Recommendations include focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies [9] - Long-term investment themes include expected demand recovery supported by policies, continuous optimization of supply, and the potential for performance and valuation improvements for leading companies [9] - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which provides predictable capital support for future industries such as commercial aerospace, facilitating the scaling development of hard technology companies [1][2]. Policy Changes - The new guidelines from the Shanghai Stock Exchange focus on the "hard technology" attributes of commercial rocket enterprises, emphasizing the need for significant technological advantages and breakthroughs in core technologies [2]. - A milestone requirement is set for companies to achieve the successful launch of a medium to large reusable rocket payload into orbit at the time of application, reflecting a balance between technical authenticity and operational capability [2]. - The guidelines do not prioritize short-term revenue or profit but instead emphasize a clear market target and competitive advantages in the commercial rocket business [2]. Market Impact - The policy is expected to have a long-term structural impact on the A-share market, confirming the industrial logic of the commercial aerospace sector and potentially enhancing the valuation and risk appetite for hard technology assets on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2]. - Short-term market sentiment may focus on components related to rocket structures, engine materials, and aerospace electronics, while long-term beneficiaries are likely to be companies with stable supply relationships and integration into the model system of commercial rocket manufacturers [2]. Strategic Direction - The introduction of these guidelines reflects a proactive approach by the capital market to support national strategies and the cultivation of new productive forces, embedding capital market capabilities into the critical growth phase of the commercial rocket industry [2].

- The report tracks the performance of various stock market indices, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, highlighting their weekly, monthly, and year-to-date performance[1][16][17] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of different stock market styles, such as growth vs. dividend, small-cap vs. large-cap, and micro-cap vs. CSI 800, including their relative crowding and excess net value[2][60][71] - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the valuation and equity-bond cost-effectiveness of A-shares, with specific focus on PE_TTM and ERP metrics for various indices and sectors[3][41][49][51] - The report tracks the performance and crowding of different investment styles, such as momentum vs. reversal, and their relative excess returns[2][60][71] - The report provides insights into the impact of US bond yields on the performance of different stock market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and growth vs. dividend[3][82][84] - The report includes a detailed analysis of the main fund indices, including their absolute and relative returns, and tracks the scale of public funds and their impact on the market[3][88][90][94] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including the performance of various commodity indices in China and the US[3][123][125]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of interest rates oscillating within a balanced range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in monetary policy in 2026. The central bank is likely to use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading to maintain interest rates within the 1.6 - 1.9% range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield. Although the Q4 monetary policy meeting did not explicitly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", it did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in Q1, especially if there is strong upward pressure on interest rates during market operation [2]. - The Q3 GDP data of the United States provided little incremental information, and the recovery of industrial production was limited. The Q3 GDP showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate increased only slightly. The US economy continued to be uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates [2]. - The decline in upstream price indicators continued to narrow. In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. Various industrial product prices and indicators also showed different trends [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to Understand "Financing Costs Operating at a Low Level" - The central bank's recent meetings mentioned "promoting the low - level operation of the overall social financing cost", indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate fluctuation range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield valuation in the 1.6 - 1.9% range may be the central bank's perceived balanced state, and the central bank may use various tools to maintain this range. The reduction of the "prevention of fund idling" statement in the Q4 monetary policy meeting also implies that the current interest rate trend is not likely to induce fund idling. The relatively low credit spread of primary - market credit bond issuance rates compared to treasury bond yields suggests that a further increase in treasury bond yields may affect social financing growth [2]. - Based on the above - mentioned balanced interest rate range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in 2026. Although the Q4 meeting did not clearly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", the concept of "using various tools" is consistent with the "reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts and other monetary policy tools" mentioned in the Central Economic Work Conference, so the possibility of Q1 interest rate cuts is not excluded, especially when there is strong upward pressure on interest rates [2]. US Economic Data Analysis - The Q3 GDP data of the United States showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate of 2.3% increased only slightly. Personal consumption growth and import decline were the main drivers of GDP. The PCE provided limited incremental information on the current inflation situation. The US economy remained uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates. Despite the impact of tariff hikes, the cumulative import volume in the United States from January to September 2025 still increased by more than 7% year - on - year due to pre - stocking. Industrial production recovered to a post - pandemic high but was still below the historical peak [2]. Upstream Price Indicator Analysis - In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 0.05% week - on - week and decreased 22.18% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased 1.93% week - on - week and increased 13.58% year - on - year. In the week of December 19, the edible agricultural product price index increased 0.20% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.81% [2]. - The domestic cement price index decreased 0.17% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased 1.60% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased 0.05% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased 6.02% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased 0.08% week - on - week. In the week of December 19, the production material price index remained flat week - on - week and decreased 1.07% year - on - year [2]. - The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased 3.24% and 3.08% week - on - week respectively. The average spot price of LME copper increased 2.97% week - on - week; the average spot price of aluminum increased 2.12% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio increased 0.19% week - on - week [2]. - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 331,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2].

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% this week, with the asset allocation sequence favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash [1][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and address the "price stagnation" issue, highlighting fixed asset investment as a core solution [3][22] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shanghai 300 stock index futures rose by 2.46%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 0.72% and iron ore contracts decreased by 0.06% [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.04%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.84% [2][46] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, with a focus on the implementation of incremental policies [3][4] - The report suggests that the demand for fixed investment remains crucial in addressing the issue of "price stagnation," with real estate investment continuing to drag down fixed asset investment performance [3][24] Sector Insights - The report highlights that the industrial product prices are influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and domestic investment shortfalls, particularly in the coal mining and washing industry [3][28] - The automotive sector is noted for a decline in wholesale and retail sales, with a year-on-year drop of 9% and 11% respectively, indicating a potential for recovery driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [38][44] Key Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the GDP for 2024 was finalized at 13,480.66 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [6][26] - The report also tracks high-frequency data, indicating a decrease in the operating rates of major steel mills and a decline in social inventory of construction materials [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the duty-free industry, highlighting the increasing importance of domestic demand and supportive policies from the government [1]. Core Insights - The duty-free industry is entering a new era characterized by improved external conditions, enhanced policies, and rising industry sentiment, suggesting significant investment opportunities [1]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales due to the launch of new policies, the peak tourist season, and a low base effect, with sales growth projected to continue [3]. - The recovery of international passenger flow and the expansion of the免税店 (duty-free store) market are anticipated to further boost sales in both port and city channels [3][39]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Market Overview - The duty-free market is experiencing a recovery, with sales in Hainan showing a positive year-on-year growth of 27% in November, driven by new policies and an increase in tourist numbers [3][22]. - The report notes that the sales of high-value items like digital products and gold jewelry are contributing significantly to this growth [22]. Offshore Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales have seen a turnaround, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in September, marking the first positive growth since March [22]. - The report indicates that the new policies implemented in October are expected to further enhance the shopping experience and increase the variety of products available [26]. Port and City Duty-Free Sales - The international passenger flow is gradually returning, with the number of inbound foreign tourists increasing significantly, which is expected to drive sales in port and city duty-free stores [39]. - The report highlights that the recent policy changes have expanded the range of products available in city duty-free stores, aiming to stimulate consumer demand [40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the duty-free sector, specifically China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Zhuhai Duty Free Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the policy changes and market recovery [3].

Overview - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting that the demand for offshore wind power in China and Europe is increasing, leading to a rise in foundation demand and profit recovery for wind turbines. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue driving the photovoltaic sector, particularly with the expansion of perovskite technology. Overall, while short-term installation demand for renewable energy globally may be weak, there are structural opportunities in the market [1]. Key Points Supporting the Rating - The "anti-involution" trend is stabilizing wind turbine prices, enhancing profitability for manufacturers. China's offshore wind projects are becoming economically viable, contributing significantly to installed capacity. The demand for offshore wind in Europe and emerging markets is also on the rise [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "anti-involution" policy remains the main theme, with a focus on the potential for capacity exits in battery and module production, as well as the industrialization potential of perovskite technology. Investment should prioritize growth-oriented new technology directions and the main industry chain benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [3]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report suggests prioritizing investments in the turbine segment, which is expected to recover profitability, and in the foundation segment that is progressing quickly in Europe. The offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on deep-sea projects [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policy's impact on the industry, particularly regarding the exit of inefficient capacity and the enhancement of efficiency in battery and module production [3]. Long-term Outlook for Renewable Energy Demand - The report indicates that China's renewable energy demand is expected to remain robust in the long term, with an average annual installation capacity of over 400GW projected from 2025 to 2035. This is driven by the country's energy security needs and the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy [13][16]. - The "136 Document" is noted for guiding the development of renewable energy projects towards market-oriented pricing, which is expected to stabilize project returns and promote high-quality development in the sector [31]. Photovoltaic Sector Insights - The report anticipates a moderate decline in photovoltaic installations in 2026 due to a phase of pre-installation in 2025, with projected installations of 290GW in 2025 and 180GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38% [33]. - The report highlights that the European photovoltaic market is facing growth challenges, with a forecasted installation of 64.2GW in 2025, indicating a slight decline. The U.S. market is also expected to experience pressure on growth due to policy adjustments [34][37]. Perovskite Technology Potential - Perovskite technology is identified as a key area for enhancing competitiveness in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in industrialization by leading manufacturers in 2026 [33][44].