宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 文字早评 2025/08/19 星期二 1、李强：采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势 结合城市更新推进城中村和危旧房改造 多管 齐下释放改善性需求； 2、A 股市值历史首次突破 100 万亿元大关，年内新增 14.5 万亿元; 3、淳中科技：如后续公司股票交易进一步出现异常 公司可能申请停牌核查； 4、券商营业部迎来客户线上咨询高峰 佣金、两融是关注热点。 行情方面：周一，TL 主力合约下跌 1.33%，收于 116.09；T 主力合约下跌 0.29%，收于 108.015；TF 主 力合约下跌 0.21%，收于 105.455；TS 主力合约下跌 0.04%，收于 102.304。 消息方面：1、大盘全天震荡走强，北证 50 大涨创新高。上证指数盘中突破 3731.69 点高点，创下 10 年新高。2、财政部、央行 8 月 18 日以利率招标方式进行了 2025 年中央国库现金管理商业银行定期存 款（八期）招投标，中标总量 1200 亿元，中标利率 1.78%，起息日 8 月 18 日，到期日 9 月 15 日。3、 白宫消息称，周一中午 12 点（北京时间周二零点）欧洲领导 ...

禾丰股份（603609）8月18日晚间披露2025年半年报，公司上半年实现营业收入174.07亿元，同比增长 16.27%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为2.33亿元，同比扭亏为盈；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润1.38亿元，同比扭亏为盈；基本每股收益0.27元。 2025年上半年，禾丰股份的饲料、肉禽、生猪销量均实现同比增长，豆粕、玉米等主要饲料原料价格低 位运行，生猪和肉禽养殖成本同比下降，使公司整体经营效益得到显著提升。 2025年上半年，公司控参股企业合计养殖白羽肉鸡3.8亿羽，合计屠宰白羽肉鸡4.6亿羽。商品代养殖方 面，鉴于市场上养殖端产能极为充裕，公司暂时停止了商品代肉鸡养殖的扩张步伐，屠宰环节提高市场 鸡外采比例，自供毛鸡占比降至80%左右。报告期内，公司肉鸡分割品在出口、快餐及商超等高价值通 路的销售占比相对于去年提升2.3个百分点，调理品及熟食产销量同比提升40%。 禾丰股份于2016年开始尝试生猪产业，于2018年将生猪业务确定为公司战略业务，通过自建、合资、租 赁等方式在东北三省、内蒙古、河南、河北、安徽等区域进行产业布局。目前，公司生猪业务主要涵盖 种猪养殖与销售、商品 ...

路信行业结合上比升至54% 5G其站建设 ළ旧11 工JT レイルハエコ・イル） JU 型 H E K 与AI算力需求共振;传媒行业持仓1.9%,游 戏、广告营销等细分领域受资金追捧,AI应用 落地加速让产业链迎来业绩爆发期，资金抢筹 亦象明显。 a 周期与防御板块崛起 农林牧渔持仓占比1.6%, 配置系数1.36倍, 生猪、粮食等细分赛道基本面反转预期升温, 业绩拐点渐近;国防军工持仓4.2%,在地缘冲 突催化下,航空装备、地面兵装等领域长期逻 辑再强化,成为资金"避险+进攻"的优选。 ◆ 金融板块估值修复开启 银行持仓提升至4.9%,在平准基金护盘、 低估值高分红属性加持下,二季度领涨市场; 非银金融虽仍处低配(持仓1.9%,配置系数 0.26倍），但证券、保险板块的配置系数环比 提升,随着市场活跃度回升,修复空间值得期 待。 Q2公具复合特仓解密 聪明钱已悄悄布局这些机会 你跟上了吗? 想知道基金经理们Q2悄悄布局了哪些机会吗? 最新数据来了! 据申万宏源策略报告显示 (报告详见: 2025Q2被动和主动权益型公募 基金持股分析），二季度基金经理们的调仓路 径清晰可辨,加仓方向更是释放出强烈信号。 这些 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 8 月 14 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 周敏波（投资咨 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年8月13日 | | | 王浅辉 | | Z0019938 | | 票 | | | | | | | | | 8月12日 | 8月11日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8670 | 8610 | ୧୦ | 0.70% | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8488 | 8456 | 32 | 0.38% | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 182 | 154 | 28 | 18.18% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏8月 | 09+170 | 09 + 190 | -20 | - | | 仓单 | | 21954 | 21954 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | 8月12日 | 8月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9260 | 8980 | 280 | 3.12% | | 期价 | P2509 | 9362 | 9218 | 144 | ...

Q2公具复合特仓解密 聪明钱已悄悄布局这些机会 你跟上了吗? 想知道基金经理们Q2悄悄布局了哪些机会吗? 最新数据来了! 据申万宏源策略报告显示 (报告详见: 2025Q2被动和主动权益型公募 基金持股分析），二季度基金经理们的调仓路 径清晰可辨,加仓方向更是释放出强烈信号。 这些领域被机构 重点"加合" 科技塞道持续领跑 路信行业结合上比升至54% 5G其站建设 a 周期与防御板块崛起 农林牧渔持仓占比1.6%, 配置系数1.36倍, 生猪、粮食等细分赛道基本面反转预期升温, 业绩拐点渐近;国防军工持仓4.2%,在地缘冲 突催化下,航空装备、地面兵装等领域长期逻 辑再强化,成为资金"避险+进攻"的优选。 ◆ 金融板块估值修复开启 银行持仓提升至4.9%,在平准基金护盘、 低估值高分红属性加持下,二季度领涨市场; 非银金融虽仍处低配(持仓1.9%,配置系数 0.26倍），但证券、保险板块的配置系数环比 提升,随着市场活跃度回升,修复空间值得期 待。 不仅主动基金动作频频,被动型基金 (ETF)也在"悄悄吸金":沪深300、中证 1000等宽基ETF份额分别增加241亿份、115亿 份,港股互联网、创新药、高股 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: The US economic data continues to be weak, and precious metals are oscillating upward. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, and precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, with the medium - to long - term allocation logic remaining unchanged [2][3]. - **Black Metals**: The inventory increase of steel has expanded, and the futures and spot prices of steel and iron ore have continued to be weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4][5][6]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Glass production is expected to decrease, with short - term price expected to oscillate within a range [9]. - **Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The prices of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by various factors such as macro policies, inventory, and demand, with expected short - term oscillations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The spot market is weak, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil, asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products is complex, with most products expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Attention should be paid to the guidance of the August USDA and MPOB supply - demand reports. The prices of various agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, and grains are affected by factors like weather, supply - demand, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last week, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 786.90 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 7279 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The news of the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold triggered a sharp rise in the COMEX premium. The US economic data continued to weaken, with the July ISM non - manufacturing index at 50.1. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 90% [3]. - **Outlook**: Precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, and the medium - to long - term allocation logic remains unchanged. Next week, focus on the July US CPI data [3]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures and spot markets of domestic steel continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. The inflation data in July improved, and market sentiment recovered to some extent [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Real demand continued to weaken, with the inventory of five major steel products increasing by 230,000 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption continuing to decline. Steel supply was at a high level, with the output of five major steel products increasing by 17,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of rebar increasing by 100,000 tons [5]. - **Cost and Outlook**: The price of coking coal strengthened, and the cost support for steel remained strong. Steel prices are recommended to be treated with an interval oscillation mindset in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and real demand was weak, with the hot metal output expected to further decrease [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There were increasing rumors of production restrictions in the northern region [6]. Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass remained stable week - on - week. There are expectations of production cuts due to macro anti - involution policies [9]. - **Demand**: The terminal real estate industry remained weak, but demand improved slightly, with the downstream deep - processing orders at 9.55 days at the end of July, increasing month - on - month [9]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels decreased week - on - week. The glass price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals Copper - **Macro Factors**: Tariffs have basically been implemented, and the US - China 90 - day tariff truce agreement may be extended. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased significantly. The Comex copper inventory is at a multi - year high, and the terminal demand may weaken marginally [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of aluminum fell last Friday, affected by the decline in alumina. Alumina production remained high, with increased in - plant inventory and a large accumulation of warehouse receipts [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened recently, with domestic social inventory increasing by 100,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 130,000 tons compared to the low in late June [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Cost**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts [10]. - **Demand**: It is in the off - season, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [10][11]. Tin - **Supply**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mining end is expected to be more relaxed [11]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [11]. Carbonate Lithium - **Supply**: The Fengxiawo Mine has stopped production, which is a short - term positive for supply. The production and inventory pressure are accumulating [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the north and south regions has increased, with a weekly output of 79,478 tons, an 8.1% week - on - week increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: It is a key anti - involution industry, with expectations remaining. The spot price provides support, and the short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Trends**: The US - Russia peace talks are ongoing, and the market expects the Russia - Ukraine conflict to ease. The spot market is weak, and the demand for crude oil is expected to decrease while supply increases [14]. - **Outlook**: There is long - term pressure on crude oil prices [14]. Asphalt - **Cost and Market**: The cost support of asphalt is weak due to the falling crude oil prices. The spot market is average, with low - to - medium trading volumes and limited inventory reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Asphalt will continue to maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. PX - **Market Situation**: Short - term PTA device production has been cut, and PX devices are also operating at a limited capacity. The PXN spread is around 260 US dollars, and the PX outer market is at 831 US dollars. It will oscillate in the short - term [14]. PTA - **Market Indicators**: The PTA basis has continued to decline slightly, and downstream operating rates have increased slightly. The processing fee is low, and some major devices have cut production [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to balance in August, and PTA will maintain an interval oscillation [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventory has decreased slightly to 516,000 tons, but the expected import volume will increase, and domestic device operating rates will recover [16]. - **Outlook**: It may show a situation of slightly increased supply and demand in the short - term and maintain an oscillation [16]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the weakening of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has accumulated slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term [16]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are concentrated maintenance in the supply of methanol, and the demand in the inland region is boosted by the restart of olefin plants, while the port is weak due to olefin maintenance and increased imports [16]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with obvious regional differentiation, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. PP - **Supply - Demand**: The cost - profit of PP has improved, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in mid - to late August. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory has increased [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract price fluctuation may be limited, and the 01 contract is still considered weak [17]. LLDPE - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Indicators**: The net short position of soybean funds in the CBOT market has increased significantly. The US weather is favorable for crop growth, and new soybean sales are cold [18]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the August USDA supply - demand report. Soybean exports may be adjusted downward, and the price is expected to be under pressure [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories have continued to increase, and the spot market is weak. Soybean meal is traded around the cost logic, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: The spot trading of soybean oil has improved, and there is a supply - tightening expectation in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have increased in July, and exports are weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the price is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short - term [19]. Corn - **Supply**: Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, with sufficient supply expected. The spot price is stable in August [19]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rebounded over the weekend. There is reluctance to sell at low prices, and the supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].