Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the recent doubling of NAND contract prices since Q1 2025, assessing the sustainability of this cycle through historical NAND cycles, supply-demand calculations under AI scenarios, and the impact on the HDD industry [2] Demand Side - The resonance between cloud and edge AI is driving a significant increase in SSD demand, with higher requirements for write speed, IOPS, capacity, and durability due to AI model training and inference [4] - Global NAND Flash shipments are expected to approach 2000EB by 2028, maintaining nearly 30% high growth over the next three years [4][19] Supply Side - Cautious capacity expansion is expected to support prolonged price increases, with a stable yet evolving oligopoly in the NAND market [4] - Major manufacturers are adopting a cautious approach to NAND capacity expansion, focusing on high-density and high-capacity technology transitions [21] - Supply tightness is anticipated to last at least until the end of 2026, with NAND prices likely to remain high [22][23] HDD Market - HDD remains a cost-effective choice for cold storage in cloud computing, with a projected market growth rate of approximately 15% over the next three years [5] - The cost advantage of HDDs is expected to diminish as NAND technology advances, with current price differences between HDDs and SSDs ranging from 4 to 6 times [5] NAND Cycle Review - The NAND market exhibits long cycles with significant price volatility, characterized by severe supply-demand mismatches and differentiated expansion strategies among manufacturers [8] - The current cycle is marked by a supply contraction driving price recovery, followed by structural demand growth driven by AI [14][23] AI Demand - AI is significantly boosting SSD demand, with specific requirements for high-speed writing, IOPS, and large capacity in various training and inference scenarios [15][16] - The anticipated growth in AI applications is expected to sustain high demand for SSDs over an extended period [16] Current Cycle Position - NAND prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026, with data centers and enterprise-level applications showing the highest price tolerance [22] - The demand from data centers is projected to be the largest source of future SSD demand, with long-term supply agreements already in place with major cloud service providers [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive industry data [10]. - The platform also features an AI search function for efficient information retrieval and analysis [10].

Strategy - The markets in the US, A-shares, and Hong Kong have shown a quarterly switching pattern since early 2025, with a "seesaw" effect and inter-market correlations. In Q1, DeepSeek led the revaluation of Chinese assets, while in Q2, US stocks benefited from AI leaders' unexpected performance and capital expenditure growth. However, Hong Kong stocks have lagged behind, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.7% as of November, while A-shares and US stocks posted positive returns [5][3]. Macroeconomy - Recent market focus has been on the RMB exchange rate, with traditional models suggesting a significant deviation from its "equilibrium value." The assessment of whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued is complex and heavily dependent on the analytical framework used. In today's highly developed financial environment, relying solely on neoclassical frameworks can lead to substantial misjudgments regarding exchange rates [7]. Industry - Food and Beverage - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2025, with a weak overall consumption environment. The industry is focusing on high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends. The liquor sector continues to experience weak demand, while the beverage and snack sectors show better performance. The outlook for next year suggests a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and expanding consumer demographics [9]. Industry - Power and Electrical Equipment - The power and industrial control sectors are expected to perform steadily in 2025, with a focus on structural opportunities. Domestic grid investment remains robust, particularly with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage project approvals. The grid sector is seen as a post-cycle investment area for new energy, indicating a significant investment gap. The industrial control sector is also in a recovery phase, with demand expected to continue growing [11]. Industry - Chemicals - The petrochemical sector has been in a downturn for approximately three and a half years. However, with a decline in capital expenditure and the exit of outdated overseas capacities, the industry is expected to enter a low-growth phase. Positive supply-side factors and rapid growth in demand from new energy sectors suggest that the industry may be approaching a cyclical turning point, which could improve supply-demand dynamics and overall industry conditions [13].

中金研究 公募REITs扩募是实现市场规模长期增长的重要手段之一。近期，华润有巢REIT首次采用了配售扩募方式，我们认为其流程和机制具有重要参考价 值，于此报告做重点讨论。 Abstract 全流程来看，首次配售扩募耗时较长，与A股配股以及REITs定向扩募相较各有异同。 首次配售扩募前期审核时间约16个月，其后从取得证监会批文至完 成资金募集约在2个月内，全流程耗时较长，我们认为主要系：1）无先例参考，需研究厘清实操细节；2）涉及投资者数目庞大，沟通耗时相对较长。往 前看，伴随首单扩募配售落地，后续发行效率或有望提升。与A股配股比较，REITs配售扩募限制相对较多，体现了市场初期规则对于投资者的保护。与 REITs定向扩募相比，各有优劣，适用场景有所不同：1）定向扩募发行效率高，且附带限售要求，但老股东可能面临股权被动稀释风险；2）配售扩募公 平性更佳，且我们认为配售过程强制触发机构重新审慎项目估值定价，中长期能够活跃市场流动性，并形成较好的换手，但缺点是目前流程较长，或放大 价格波动。 海外成熟市场扩募方式灵活度更高。 我们对比中国香港、新加坡以及美国市场扩募规则以及案例，主要差异点在于：1）配售时效上， ...

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The "new paradigm of the pig industry" and the "golden age of the pet economy" are expected to continue, with leading companies in the pig and pet industries experiencing growth and value enhancement [2] - The pig industry is characterized by a new paradigm where leading companies are expected to maintain stable profits while reducing costs and increasing value [5][8] - The supply-demand dynamics for agricultural products are expected to improve marginally, with grain prices anticipated to rise from their lows [20][27] Group 2: Pig Industry Insights - The new paradigm in the pig industry is marked by a reduction in price volatility, with the average pig price expected to decline moderately in 2026 [6][8] - The supply of pigs is projected to increase slightly in 2026, with the average breeding sow inventory showing a minor year-on-year increase [9][11] - Leading pig companies are adopting a growth paradigm focused on cost reduction, value enhancement, and international expansion [13] Group 3: Poultry Industry Insights - The chicken supply remains ample, with leading companies expected to leverage advantages in breeding, channels, and branding to enhance operational premiums [15][16] - The poultry industry is undergoing structural changes, with a focus on improving channel efficiency and brand recognition to drive profitability [18] Group 4: Pet Industry Insights - The pet food market is experiencing significant growth, with online sales increasing by 21.5% year-on-year, indicating a strong market concentration among leading brands [30][31] - The competition in the pet food industry is intensifying, with brand differentiation becoming more pronounced as companies focus on high-end product innovation [33][43] - The pet food industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% over the next 3-5 years, driven by increased penetration of professional pet food [43] Group 5: Feed Industry Insights - The domestic feed market is expected to strengthen, with leading companies poised to increase their market share as they expand internationally [20][23] - The global feed market is characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for leading companies to establish a competitive advantage through comprehensive product offerings and global expansion [23] Group 6: Agricultural Products Insights - Grain prices are expected to recover from their lows, with corn prices projected to rise moderately due to improved supply-demand dynamics [26][27] - The overall agricultural landscape is shifting towards a "great navigation era," with advancements in agricultural technology and AI integration [2][20]

Core Viewpoint - The coal price is expected to show a trend of low first and high later in 2026, with the annual average likely to remain similar to that of 2025. Demand may be a major drag, but supply-side constraints are relatively strong [2][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal industry is not facing overcapacity. The unexpected decline in coal prices this year is attributed to excessive production beyond approved capacity, which poses challenges to safety and environmental standards. If supply-demand conditions become overly loose, policies may tighten supply under reasonable and legal pretenses [2][11]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain at a peak platform. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, green energy may start to squeeze existing coal power demand, but overall electricity demand is projected to grow steadily, maintaining thermal coal demand at a peak level with limited risk of significant decline [2][9]. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply of domestic coking coal is expected to have limited upward elasticity in 2026, but imports from Mongolia may increase, leading to a relatively loose overall supply of coking coal. The uncertainty surrounding steel production cuts may affect actual reductions [3]. Historical Review of 2025 - The supply was rational in 2025, leading to a rebound in coal prices. From mid-2024 to July 2025, coal prices were under pressure due to weak demand and intensified competition. However, from July 2025 onwards, supply contraction and stabilizing demand led to a rebound in coal prices [6][5]. 2026 Outlook - Coal prices are expected to be low in the first half of 2026 and improve in the second half, with the average price likely to remain stable compared to 2025. The demand may be weak initially, but marginal improvements are anticipated later in the year [9][20]. Cost and Supply Constraints - The coal industry is experiencing rising costs due to resource depletion, safety investments, and increased labor costs. The average cost of coal for listed companies has been gradually increasing from 2016 to 2023, indicating that even low-cost leading companies are facing cost pressures [12][19]. - The overall debt pressure in the coal industry has decreased, providing a stronger basis for rejecting "involution-style" competition. The industry is transitioning from debt-driven production activities to profit-driven ones [19]. Non-Electric Coal Demand - The demand for coal in construction and steel is stabilizing at a low level due to weak real estate and infrastructure. However, chemical coal demand is a growth highlight, with significant increases driven by project launches and profitability [26]. Supply Outlook - Domestic coal production is expected to be released in a rational manner, with supply contraction as the main theme in the second half of 2025. The industry policies will likely focus on safe and orderly capacity release to avoid irrational price declines [28][30]. - New capacity additions are relatively limited, with a decrease in new projects and capacity increases observed in 2025 compared to 2024 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is increasingly favored by mainland public funds due to its deep value opportunities, potential for future growth, and global diversification, leading to a rise in public fund participation in Hong Kong stocks [2][10]. Market Overview - As of Q3 2025, the number of equity funds including Hong Kong stocks reached 2,689, with a total scale of 2.63 trillion yuan. Active management funds dominate in both quantity and proportion, indicating a strong willingness from public institutions to flexibly allocate to the Hong Kong market [2][22]. - Active products show a steady increase in Hong Kong thematic funds, while balanced allocation funds have expanded significantly, with thematic and balanced funds numbering 92 and 872 respectively by Q3 2025 [2][31]. - Passive products are led by thematic funds, which have seen rapid growth, reaching 108 funds by Q3 2025, driven by the accelerated return of Chinese concept stocks and structural market trends [2][32]. Institutional Landscape - The concentration of management scale among different types of Hong Kong equity funds is gradually dispersing. As of Q3 2025, the CR5 for thematic, balanced, and minor participation funds stands at 60.3%, 35.8%, and 30.2% respectively [3][33]. - Passive products exhibit higher concentration due to scale effects and first-mover advantages, with CR5 for thematic, balanced, and minor participation funds at 67.0%, 67.9%, and 81.0% respectively [3][33]. Performance Analysis - Active management products show significant internal differentiation, indicating varying levels of management capability. Thematic funds have better upward momentum, while the advantages of active management are not prominently displayed [3][37]. - The median returns for passive and active thematic funds this year are 28.2% and 25.5%, respectively, suggesting that thematic focus may yield better market performance [3][37]. Strategy Characteristics - Thematic funds maintain a high Hong Kong stock position of around 90%, focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations. They prefer H-shares with a balanced sector distribution [4]. - Minor participation funds view the Hong Kong market as a tactical allocation, focusing on short-term trading and flexible adjustments, with a preference for new economy sectors like technology and consumption [5]. - Balanced allocation funds maintain a Hong Kong stock position of 30-40%, frequently adjusting their allocations to capture excess returns through active cross-market timing [6]. Investment Value - The Hong Kong stock market has reversed its previous weak performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28.9% this year and 51.7% over the past two years, leading global major market indices [10]. - The market's flexible trading mechanisms and diverse funding structures position it uniquely to attract both domestic and international capital, enhancing its long-term investment value [10][15]. - As of November 30, 2025, the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio is 11.9, indicating a valuation advantage compared to other global markets, alongside a dividend yield of 3.0%, making it an attractive investment option [16][17].

Group 1 - The rapid growth of the cooling business in AI data centers is driven by the increasing demand for cooling solutions due to the surge in global computing power investments, with major cloud providers' capital expenditures reaching nearly $100 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 70% [2][5] - The cooling system's core component is the chiller, which accounts for approximately 40% of the total energy consumption of data centers, with chillers consuming about 60-85% of the cooling equipment's energy [12][17] - Liquid cooling solutions are emerging as a key technology to meet the stringent PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) requirements, with the potential to reduce PUE to around 1.2, significantly improving energy efficiency [9][14] Group 2 - Compressors are the core components of chillers, with magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors expected to become mainstream due to their higher cooling efficiency and lower energy consumption compared to screw compressors, potentially saving over 40% in energy [3][18] - The market for magnetic levitation chillers is projected to reach approximately 28.83 billion yuan by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 70.4% if all new AI data centers adopt this technology [3][18] - Domestic manufacturers are making technological breakthroughs in key components of magnetic levitation compressors, which may lead to a gradual replacement of foreign brands in the market [3][49] Group 3 - The increasing power density of AI servers necessitates higher cooling capacities, with single cabinet power requirements exceeding 50 kW, driving the demand for more efficient cooling solutions [8][39] - The shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling is essential for meeting the cooling demands of high-density AI data centers, with centrifugal compressors being more suitable for large-scale cooling needs [39][41] - The adoption of magnetic levitation technology in centrifugal compressors enhances their efficiency and durability, making them well-suited for the high power demands of AI data centers [43][46]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a new normal with a weak overall consumption environment, emphasizing high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends. The liquor industry continues to face weak demand, while snacks and beverages show better performance. The industry is expected to maintain a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying on product innovation, fragmented channel layouts, and expanding consumer demographics [2][3][10]. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments due to weak demand and new regulations, with expectations for a turning point in the first half of 2026 as the supply-demand balance improves. The impact of policies on demand is expected to weaken, leading to a gradual recovery in consumption [6][7]. - The strategic focus of liquor companies has shifted from inventory pressure to exploring new growth areas, such as targeting younger consumers and embracing new retail channels. This shift is expected to lead to a clearer upward trend in financial reports by 2026 [8][9]. - High-end liquor is anticipated to lead the overall recovery, benefiting from brand loyalty and the resumption of business activities. The mid-range segment may face challenges but is also expected to see some recovery [9]. Snack and Beverage Industry - The overall demand for snacks is stabilizing at a low level, with a focus on quality-price ratios and emotional value. The snack industry is expected to continue expanding, particularly in channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets [11][12]. - The beverage industry is benefiting from health trends, with a notable increase in demand for low-sugar and functional drinks. The market for instant retail is also growing, with significant sales increases in snack brands through platforms like Meituan [21][22]. - The competition in the beverage sector is expected to remain intense, but price competition is easing, allowing for improved profit margins for leading companies [22][23]. Dairy and Frozen Food Industry - The dairy industry is experiencing a recovery in operational performance, with expectations for improved profitability as raw milk prices stabilize. The demand for liquid milk is projected to stabilize in 2026, with a potential turning point in the raw milk supply-demand balance [33][34][37]. - The frozen food industry is facing pressure from weak demand but is seeing a stabilization in competition. Companies are focusing on product innovation and new channel development to improve profitability [42][43]. Condiments and Health Products - The condiment industry is expected to see stable demand in 2025, with a focus on product upgrades and innovation from leading companies. The overall competitive landscape is anticipated to become less aggressive as inventory levels normalize [44][48]. - The health product sector is experiencing a shift towards online sales and long-tail brand growth. Leading brands are expected to stabilize their market share through channel expansion and product diversification [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for recovery in 2026, particularly in sub-sectors like hotels and duty-free [2][17]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The service consumption ratio is increasing, supported by improved infrastructure for chain operations, leading to the emergence of more quality brands [4][21]. - The government has introduced multiple policies to promote service consumption, indicating a potential for stronger recovery in domestic demand [18][20]. - The hotel sector is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand in 2026, with RevPAR stabilizing due to a low base and slowing supply growth [4][31]. Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - **Hotels**: The hotel industry faced pressure from weak business travel demand and continued supply expansion, but RevPAR showed signs of recovery in October 2025, driven by ADR increases [26][33]. - **Duty-Free**: Duty-free sales are stabilizing, with a focus on the potential of new policies to boost sales from departing travelers and local residents [45][49]. - **Dining**: The dining sector is experiencing a controlled competitive environment, with affordable brands performing relatively well amidst a recovering landscape [36][44]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies that can effectively meet consumer demands for value and emotional satisfaction, possess strong operational capabilities, and capture sustainable growth drivers are likely to succeed [4][29]. - The focus on high-quality brands and those with strong internal capabilities is expected to yield better performance in the coming years [4][21]. Group 4: Market Performance - In 2025, companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue have shown significant stock performance, indicating a trend where companies with strong growth potential outperform their peers [7][12]. - The overall market for the service sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with structural opportunities emerging in the hotel and duty-free segments [6][31].