证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 深化与东盟&欧洲合作 -- 政策周观察第 31 期 近一周政策出台不多,主要关注以下内容: 8 (一)外交:强化与欧洲、东盟国家联络。1)5月20日,中国与东盟十国全 面完成中国_东盟自贸区3.0 版谈判。2)5月22日-23日,总书记先后同法国 总统马克龙、德国总理默茨通电话。在与法国总统通电话时,总书记指出,"维 护国际贸易规则和世界经济秩序,践行真正的多边主义。国际形势越是复杂 中法越要作出正确战略抉择"。3)5月25日,总理同印度尼西亚总统普拉博 法会谈,"中方愿同印尼加强发展战略对接,深化高质量共建'一带一路'合 作","坚持多边主义和自由贸易,推动平等有序的世界多极化、普惠包容的经 济全球化"。4)5月26日,总理将出席在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的东盟-中国- 海合会峰会。 (二)财政及项目进度。1)发改委 4月审批项目加速。据 5月20日发改委 例行新闻发布会,4月份,发改委共审批固定资产投资项目 5个、核准 3个, 总投资 3771 亿元(去年同期审批核准固定资产投资项目 20个,总投资 1152 亿元)。1-4 月份,发改委共审批核准固定资产投资项目 27个,总投资 5 ...

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index decreased to 5.03% as of May 18, down 0.12% from 5.15% on May 11[11] - Cement shipment rate increased to 41.5% as of May 16, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week, consistent with the same period last year[20] - The average land premium rate for 100 cities dropped to 1.37% as of May 18, down from an average of 5.5% in the previous three weeks and 9.69% in April[15] Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April[5] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24, compared to a 23.1% decline at the end of April[35] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.1% as of May 23, indicating a drop in shipping demand[28] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rebounded significantly, with COMEX gold closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase[1] - Domestic coal prices continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price for power coal dropping by 0.5% to 611 yuan per ton[38] - The price index for iron ore (62% Fe) decreased by 1.4%, settling at $99.7 per ton[38] Debt Issuance - As of May 23, 2025, the issuance of new special bonds reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with an estimated total for the year at 4.4 trillion yuan, marking a progress rate of 38.3%[45] - The net financing progress for general government bonds reached 39.4% as of May 23, compared to 28.6% during the same period last year[53]

金融工程 【专题报告】 证 券 研 究 报 告 兼具流动性与稳健性的配置工具——大成深 证基准做市信用债 ETF 投资价值分析 ❖ 债券 ETF 投资价值分析 2013 年 3 月，国内首只债券 ETF 成立。截至 2025 年 5 月 19 日，全市场共有 29 只债券 ETF，包括 16 只利率债 ETF，11 只信用债 ETF，2 只可转债 ETF， 总规模 2624.68 亿元。 债券 ETF 兼具了债券资产的稳健性和投资组合的流动性，弥补了传统债券流 动性不足的问题，是资产配置的高效工具，能够作为一种可选的避险资产和流 动性工具，尤其在利率下行的大环境下，债券 ETF 具有独特优势。 ❖ 信用债 ETF 投资价值分析 信用债 ETF 是债券 ETF 中重要的类型，目前市场上共 11 只。2025 年以前， 市场上仅有 3 只信用债 ETF，市场供给相对不足。2024 年年底，首批基准做 市信用债 ETF 共 8 只获批，填补了市场空白。 基准做市信用债 ETF 具有独特的创新之处，既提升了债券市场的流动性，也 为投资者提供了差异化的投资工具。 ❖ 深证基准做市信用债指数投资价值分析 2023 年 4 ...

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 基于以上分析，我们当前对投资"姿势"的判断是"高仓位、低波动"：第一， 对于相对投资者而言，高仓位很重要，过度悲观在当前环境下没有意义，因为 如果国家队能够对冲一部分下行风险的话，那么过度悲观在交易上就无法充分 表达。第二，市场可能会维持相对低波动的状态，这种低波动既表现为相对经 济数据的低波动、也表现为相对海外市场的低波动。 ❖ 策略 姚佩：震荡格局与杠铃配置 大势研判：从布局黄金坑到震荡判断，当下重结构、轻方向。 25 年至今行情：杠铃领涨的背后，大盘成长弹性有限。 旧红利：股息主导回报、EPS 稳定性要求高于弹性。 新故事：剩余流动性宽松背景下的小盘成长主题轮动。 配置：牛市上半场金融再通胀，红利底仓+小盘成长哑铃配置。 ①红利资产：通胀尚未回归，红利资产凭借稳定的自由现金流创造，保障分红 能力及股东回报。关注银行、港口、公路、有色金属、白酒、电信运营商。 ②货币宽松扩张剩余流动性，小盘成长行情或将进一步加强：关注科创 50、北 证 50、国证 2000、微盘股。行业关注自主可控，包括电子、信息化、能源化 工、通信。 ❖ 固收 周冠南：债市交易慢下来 关税谈判后， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommendation" rating to the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10% to 20% over the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.525 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 222 million yuan, down 31.20% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 510 million yuan, a decline of 7.40% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.85 million yuan, down 76.67% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is focusing on AI technology applications to support the intelligent transformation of educational scenarios, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [8]. - The company is deepening its international operations, achieving a market share of 22.0% in the US and 9.5% in the EMEA region, indicating successful international market penetration [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, total revenue was 3,525 million yuan, with a projected increase to 3,697 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 222 million yuan in 2024 to 235 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.7% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.94 yuan in 2024 to 0.99 yuan in 2025 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong customer base in the education sector, providing over 4.1 million interactive display devices for K12 classrooms [8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the integrated production and sales of educational tablets, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence [8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic direction towards technology-driven growth, with a shift in expense structure favoring research and development [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the wind power industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [33]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three main investment themes in the wind power sector: 1. High domestic offshore wind project reserves and supportive policies for long-term development, with expectations for concentrated offshore wind project commencements and high-value order tenders in 2025. 2. High land wind tenders in 2024, with optimism for main engine manufacturers and components to experience simultaneous volume and profit growth. 3. Significant regional growth in overseas land and offshore installations, with a positive outlook for domestic submarine cables, main engines, and components to expand internationally [3][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - The report indicates that there are 300 listed companies in the power equipment and new energy sector, with a total market capitalization of approximately 49,705.82 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 43,337.14 billion [5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies: - Dongfang Cable: EPS of 2.29 in 2025E, PE of 20.76, rated as "Recommended" - Zhongtian Technology: EPS of 1.04 in 2025E, PE of 12.69, rated as "Recommended" - Mingyang Smart Energy: EPS of 0.71 in 2025E, PE of 14.18, rated as "Strongly Recommended" - Times New Material: EPS of 0.92 in 2025E, PE of 12.40, rated as "Recommended" [4]. Wind Power Tender Data - In the week, 1.4GW of land wind projects were tendered, with an average winning bid price of 1519 yuan/kW. Year-to-date, a total of 38.7GW has been tendered, with 3.6GW offshore and 35.2GW onshore [10][12]. - The report notes that as of May 25, 2025, there are 68GW of offshore wind projects in various stages, with significant reserves in provinces like Guangdong and Shandong [15][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the wind power sector [3][19].

Macro Policy Insights - China and ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, enhancing regional trade cooperation[2] - The Chinese government emphasizes maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in the economy, highlighting the importance of technology empowerment in modern manufacturing[4] - The State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC) approved 27 fixed asset investment projects from January to April, totaling 573.7 billion yuan, compared to 32 projects and 320.7 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a significant increase in project approvals[3] Financial and Investment Strategies - In April, SDRC approved 5 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 377.1 billion yuan, a substantial increase from 1.15 billion yuan for 20 projects in the same month last year[3] - Nearly 500 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds have been arranged for 2025 to support major projects, including infrastructure and urbanization initiatives[3] - The government plans to revise the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog" to include high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors, aiming to boost foreign investment confidence[4] Risk Management and Economic Outlook - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" in competition by promoting mergers and acquisitions in inefficient industries and enhancing industry self-discipline[4] - A risk warning is issued regarding the timely update of policies, which could impact market stability and investor confidence[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 36.14 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.15 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million CNY, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 111 million CNY, showing a significant increase of 44.0% year-on-year [1][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 280 million CNY, down 5.9% year-on-year, with a net loss of 40 million CNY, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The company is focusing on three core areas: digital transformation in government services, procurement, and construction, while accelerating its transition to a SaaS model [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2024 was 2,146 million CNY, with a projected growth of 9.7% in 2025, reaching 2,354 million CNY. The net profit is expected to grow significantly by 29.6% in 2025, reaching 265 million CNY [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 61.2%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 9.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 264 million CNY, with a projected increase in cash flow for 2025 [8]. Strategic Focus - The company is enhancing its SaaS operations, with its smart procurement business generating 950 million CNY in revenue for 2024, accounting for 18.1% of total revenue, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. - In the smart government sector, the company served over 8,900 projects and more than 4,900 clients by the end of 2024, with significant growth in new projects and clients [7][8]. - The company is embracing AI technologies, launching the first national government service model in February 2025, which integrates natural language processing and knowledge graphs to improve service efficiency [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% in the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a decrease of 14.8% [2][9]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence outside Jiangsu province, with a revenue of 800 million yuan from these regions in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 58.3% [2][9]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the power informationization sector, with a backlog of orders amounting to 1.568 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, but the net profit decreased by 46.8% to 10 million yuan [2][9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.5%, down 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins in the new markets compared to Jiangsu [2][9]. - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 5.2% in 2024, reflecting an increase of 0.5 percentage points, with several innovative products under development [2][9]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for the power industry, with significant investments expected in grid projects, including a forecasted investment of over 650 billion yuan by the State Grid in 2025 [2][9]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 280 million yuan, 330 million yuan, and 390 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.4%, 17.9%, and 17.4% [2][9].

【每周经济观察】第 21 期 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 2）出口：多数货量高频指标回落。1）美国自中国进口大幅回落。从海运进 口提单数据来看，5 月前 21 天美国从中国进口同比大幅降至-8%，4 月 30 天 同比为 9.9%。2）中美之间直接贸易流量降幅扩大。截至 5 月 24 日的 15 天内， 从中国发往美国载货集装箱船数量同比进一步降至-37.5%，截至 4 月 30 日同 比为-23.1%。3）潜在转口：截至 5 月 24 日当周，东盟主要国家港口停靠船舶 数量大幅回落，环比前一周-6.3%，5 月 17 日当周环比为 1.6%。5 月前 24 天， 东盟主要国家港口船舶停靠数量同比降至 4.5%，4 月 30 天同比为 8.3%。 3）土地溢价率明显回落。截至 5 月 18 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 1.37%。4 月 28 日-5 月 18 日三周，百城土地溢价率平均为 5.5%，4 月为 9.69%。 4）物价：煤炭、地产相关价格偏弱。山西产动力末煤(Q5500)秦皇岛港平仓价、 京唐港山西主焦煤库提价分别下跌 0.5%、1.5%。螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石 价格指数:62%Fe:CF ...