Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese silicon, "anti - involution" was the main driver but has gradually cooled, with limited marginal changes in fundamentals. The market sentiment has returned to rationality, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The impact of "anti - involution" on supply and demand needs time to verify [6][7]. - For ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" drive has come to an end, and the fundamental drive is limited. It is expected that the production in August will continue to rise, and the price will mainly fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and cost changes [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis Analysis - **Futures Price**: In July 2025, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had large fluctuations and strengthened month - on - month. The closing price of the manganese silicon main contract increased by 338 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.01%, and the ferrosilicon increased by 412 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.82% [11]. - **Spot Price**: The increase in the ferrosilicon spot price was greater than that of manganese silicon. The spot prices in different regions of both showed an upward trend [12][14]. - **Basis**: The basis of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated and strengthened. The weekly basis of manganese silicon increased by 462 - 472 yuan/ton, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 466 - 484 yuan/ton [17][19]. - **Near - far Spread**: The 9 - 1 spreads of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [22][25]. - **Double - silicon Spread**: The double - silicon spread (ferrosilicon - manganese silicon) increased by 74 yuan/ton month - on - month [29]. 2. Manganese Silicon Analysis - **Supply**: In July, the weekly output of manganese silicon increased continuously, approaching the level of the same period last year. The production enterprise's operating rate in each region increased to varying degrees. The total output in July was about 892,700 tons, an increase of 56,900 tons compared with June [6][35]. - **Demand**: The weekly value of manganese silicon demand decreased continuously, at a low level in recent years. The crude steel output decreased significantly, and the steel mill's stocking willingness was limited. The manganese silicon demand of sample steel mills decreased by 2.42% month - on - month [41][45]. - **Cost**: The manganese ore shipping volume increased, the inventory gradually accumulated, and the price increased month - on - month. The production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by about 200 yuan/ton to around 5,900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, but increased year - on - year. The inventory decreased by 52,300 tons from July 18 to August 1 [59][61]. - **Option**: The historical volatility of manganese silicon options increased significantly [66]. 3. Ferrosilicon Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased continuously. In July, the national output was 447,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%. Some factories in Qinghai and Ningxia plan to increase production in August [9][71][78]. - **Demand**: The demand for steel products did not increase significantly, and the steel mill's stocking willingness was limited. The weekly value of ferrosilicon demand was at a low level, and the apparent consumption increased by 2.07% month - on - month [9][83]. - **Cost**: The price of small - sized semi - coke first decreased and then increased. The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased to varying degrees in July [9][88]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon sample enterprises increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level in recent years. The inventory available days decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level in recent years [9][92][96]. - **Option**: The historical volatility of ferrosilicon options reached a new high recently, and the put - call ratio of option positions decreased month - on - month [101][102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are weakened by market sentiment. The overall fundamentals change little. There is support from nickel - iron and intermediate product prices at the lower end and demand suppression at the upper end, so they still show a volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly changes:沪镍 fell 1.2%, LME nickel fell 2.1%, nickel - iron prices rose, and nickel sulfate prices fell slightly. Stainless - steel spot prices generally increased, and the spot premium rose 220 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [5][57] - Specific price data: For example,沪镍 dropped from 121,220 yuan/ton to 119,770 yuan/ton; LME nickel decreased from 15,340 dollars/ton to 15,020 dollars/ton [6] 3.2 Supply - **Nickel - related supply** - Nickel ore: The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore 1.2% decreased by 0.2 dollars/wet ton to 24.8 dollars/wet ton, 1.6% remained at 52.1 dollars/wet ton. Indonesian nickel ore premium dropped 1 dollar/wet ton to 24 dollars/wet ton, and Philippine nickel ore 1.5% stayed at 7 dollars/wet ton [4][5][18] - Refined nickel: In August, the production is expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons [4][5] - Nickel - iron: The market was inactive, and the transaction price center shifted slightly upward [4][5][21] - Intermediate products: Spot prices declined slightly, and market activity remained stable [4][5][24] - Nickel sulfate: In August, the production is expected to drop 3% month - on - month to 28,349 nickel tons [4][5][29] - **Stainless - steel supply** - In July 2025, the estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,400 tons (1.87%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. In August, the planned output is 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [4][57][71] 3.3 Demand - **Stainless - steel demand** - Inventory: The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased 429 tons to 103,000 tons month - on - month. The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased 7,000 tons to 1.111 million tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series increasing 7,000 tons to 677,000 tons [4][57][64] - Consumption: According to the production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [4][57][82] - **New - energy demand** - Ternary precursor: In August, the production is expected to increase 5% month - on - month to 76,160 tons [4][5][41] - Ternary material: In August, the production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased 53 tons to 16,499 tons [4][5][43] - Power cells: The weekly cell production decreased 0.5% to 22.57 Wh, with lithium - iron increasing 0.5% to 15.66 GWh and ternary decreasing 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [4][5][46] - New - energy vehicles: From July 1st to 20th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 514,000 units, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month; the retail volume was 537,000 units, a 23% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [4][5][51] 3.4 Inventory - Nickel inventory: During the week, LME inventory increased 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons;沪镍 inventory decreased 331 tons to 21,374 tons, social inventory decreased 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and bonded - area inventory increased 500 tons to 5,200 tons [5][12][16] - Stainless - steel inventory: As mentioned above, the warehouse - receipt and social inventory of stainless - steel changed as described in the demand section [4][57][64] 3.5 Cost - profit - Stainless - steel: Raw material prices were stable, while finished - product prices fluctuated greatly. The profit margins of stainless - steel smelting, cold - rolling 304, and hot - rolling 304 were also presented in relevant charts [57][80] 3.6 Supply - demand Balance - Nickel: There are charts showing the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate [53][54][56] - Stainless - steel: There is a chart presenting the supply - demand balance of Chinese stainless - steel [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has declined, and weekly lithium salt prices have followed suit and dropped rapidly. In August, the supply - demand balance may further narrow. Weekly production continues to slow down, but with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons, while the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE. Social inventory has seen its first destocking since the end of May, but there is still about 142,000 tons. After the market sentiment fades, the market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiakouwo will shut down. At the same time, there is a certain back - flow after the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipt inventory, but the total volume remains low. In the long - term, it should be noted that recently, Australian lithium mining companies have successively disclosed their financial reports, with many companies showing a month - on - month increase in production and sales, and overseas lithium ore supply remains stable and abundant [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Price - During the week, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by 14.4%, and prices in all links of the industrial chain have corrected. For example, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25th to 68,920 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 3,073 tons to 45,888 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,090 tons to 43,880 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,427 tons [16]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - There are data on the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the import profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, etc., but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [24]. 3.4 Production of Lithium - Related Products 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - There are charts showing the import volume of lithium concentrates from different countries (such as Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc.), the import volume of lithium chloride, and the production of sample lithium mica mines and lithium pyroxene mines [27][29]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. In August, it is expected to increase by 3.3% to 84,200 tons. The production from lithium pyroxene is expected to increase by 6,970 tons to 51,780 tons, while the production from lithium mica is expected to decrease by 3,100 tons to 14,900 tons, the production from salt lakes is expected to decrease by 2,320 tons to 10,020 tons, and the production from recycling is expected to increase by 1,120 tons to 7,500 tons [5][31][38]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the production is expected to decrease by 5% to 23,820 tons [46]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - In August, the production is expected to increase by 6% to 20,220 tons [49]. 3.4.5 Ternary Precursor - In August, the production is expected to increase by 5% to 76,160 tons [58]. 3.4.6 Ternary Material - In August, the production is expected to increase by 3% to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 53 tons to 16,499 tons [61]. 3.4.7 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In August, the production is expected to increase by 7% to 311,400 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 1,206 tons to 93,672 tons [62]. 3.5 Power Cell - Weekly cell production decreased by 0.5% to 22.57 GWh. Among them, lithium - iron cell production increased by 0.5% to 15.66 GWh, and ternary cell production decreased by 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [66]. 3.6 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From July 1st to 20th, the new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 514,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail volume was 537,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate of the national new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [6][77]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - There are charts showing the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [81]. 3.8 Options - There are charts showing historical volatility, historical volatility cones, put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate [82][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Since late June, the A-share market has been rising, primarily driven by loose liquidity. International capital inflows into non - US dollar assets due to the "weak dollar" trend, and domestic enterprise deposit - loan data has improved, making the stock market more attractive. However, fundamental data remains at a low level, and there are pressures for the index to continue rising. In this context, the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and different investment strategies can be adopted [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in July - **1.1: Liquidity - driven Index Rise** - In July, the liquidity - driven market led to an index increase. Wind All - A rose by 4.75%, reaching a new high for the year, with significantly higher average daily trading volume. The large - cap growth style was strong, and the barbell strategy that performed well in the first half of the year underperformed the average. Specific index gains include: CSI 1000 up 4.8%, CSI 500 up 5.25%, SSE 50 up 2.36%, and SSE 300 up 3.54% [6]. - **1.2: Index Valuation at 1 - standard - deviation Level** - The index valuation is at the 1 - standard - deviation level, but no further detailed analysis is provided in the text [7]. - **1.3: Volatility and Margin Trading** - The implied volatility of index options rebounded. The 1000IV closed at 22.87%, and the 300IV at 19.11%. Margin trading balance increased significantly, rising by 132.4 billion yuan in July to 1.96 trillion yuan [14]. - **1.4: Sector - driven Index Rise** - In July, the pharmaceutical, electronics, and non - bank financial sectors drove the index up, as shown by their positive contributions to various major indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 [15]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **2.1: Sino - US Capital Market Linkage** - There are multiple ways of linkage between Sino - US capital markets, including economic - related (SSE 300 moves in tandem with US stocks), capital - related (CSI 1000 moves in tandem with US stocks), negative - related (due to the rise of the US AI industry), risk re - balancing (international funds increase positions in China), and non - related (due to different domestic pressures in the two countries) [23]. - **2.3: Foreign Capital Inflow Preference** - Foreign capital inflows tend to favor the large - cap growth style [26]. - **2.4: Increase in Corporate Deposits and Loans in June** - In June, both corporate deposits and loans increased, but no specific data is provided in the text [28]. - **2.5: Domestic Capital Inflow into the Stock Market** - Due to the relatively high equity risk premium, domestic capital is more inclined to flow into the stock market [32]. - **2.6: Capital Flow to Low - Valued Non - Core Themes** - Capital in the capital market tends to flow to low - valued non - core themes that were undervalued in the early stage [33]. 3. Index and Option Performance - **3.1: CSI 1000 Index** - The CSI 1000 index rose by 4.8% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [41]. - **3.2: CSI 500 Index** - The CSI 500 index rose by 5.26% in July, with a relatively high annualized convergence of the basis discount [45]. - **3.3: SSE 300 Index** - The SSE 300 index rose by 3.54% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [47]. - **3.4: SSE 50 Index** - The SSE 50 index rose by 2.36% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [51]. - **3.5: CSI 1000 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of CSI 1000 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [55]. - **3.6: SSE 300 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of SSE 300 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [64]. - **3.7: SSE 50 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of SSE 50 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [73]. 4. Trading Slippage - **4.1: IM Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IM contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [81]. - **4.2: IC Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IC contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [84]. - **4.3: IF Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IF contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [86]. - **4.4: IH Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IH contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost under pressure. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will follow the cost trend. PTA has large - scale device maintenance plans in August, but with the commissioning of new devices, the monthly output is expected to change little. The supply of ethylene glycol is recovering well, and the domestic operating rate has room for improvement, which will put pressure on the cost - end price. In the off - season, there will still be device maintenance for polyester staple fiber in August, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. Overall, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber are both weak, and the cost - end is under pressure [65]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Price - **Spot and Futures Price Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF main contract closing price dropped from 6514 yuan/ton to 6382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 132 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6770 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The basis decreased from 256 yuan/ton to 218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton or 14.8% [4]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 12 yuan/ton to - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 366.7%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from - 26 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton, a change of 146 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 561.5%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from 38 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a change of - 102 yuan/ton with a growth rate of - 268.4% [9]. - **Raw Material Price Changes**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The MEG closing price increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton or 3.0%. The PX closing price increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 2.1% [12]. 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - End: Focus on Device Recovery - **PTA Situation**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 percentage points. Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device stopped due to an accident, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton device was under planned maintenance. Some PTA devices of Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dahua, and Yihua reduced their loads recently. A line of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton/year new PTA device was put into production at the end of July and produced products, and it was included in the production capacity base in August. The PTA production capacity base in the Chinese mainland was adjusted to 9171.5 million tons on August 1, 2025. In June 2025, the PTA output was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 500,000 tons or 8.7%, and a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons or 5.9%. In June 2025, China's PTA exports were 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 3.78% from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.8568 million tons, a decrease of 377,700 tons or 16.90% compared with the same period last year [13][14]. - **MEG Situation**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 68.64% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.04% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%). In June 2025, the output of ethylene glycol produced by the ethylene method was 981,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The output of ethylene glycol produced by the syngas method was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The domestic ethylene glycol output was 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In June 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were 617,800 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 3.8454 million tons. The import volume increased by 2.34% month - on - month and decreased by 1.30% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% compared with the same period last year. On July 28, the MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was about 521,000 tons [18][21]. 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - End: In the Off - Season - **Operating Load**: As of August 1, the operating load of polyester staple fiber was 90.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points. Some polyester staple fiber devices still have maintenance plans in the future [65]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 13.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 days [31]. 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - End: Weak Orders - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of August 1, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 61.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points [35]. - **Output and Consumption**: According to national statistics, in June 2025, the yarn output of enterprises above designated size was 2.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. From January to June, the yarn output was 11.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In June 2025, the cloth output of enterprises above designated size was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. The cumulative cloth output from January to June was 15.37 billion square meters, the same as the same period last year. In June 2025, China's exports of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) were 141,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons or 11.88% from the previous month, with an average export price of 903.01 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 809,400 tons, an increase of 184,200 tons or 29.46% compared with the same period last year [40][45]. - **Inventory of Intermediate Products**: As of June 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.23 days, an increase of 4.89 days from the end of last month. The cloth inventory was 36.61 days, an increase of 3.72 days from the end of last month. In the off - season, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase [42]. 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In June, textile and garment exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.1%. Among them, textile exports were 12.05 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. Garment exports were 15.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 12.4%. From January to June, the cumulative textile and garment exports were 143.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 70.52 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.8%, and garment exports were 73.46 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Due to the slowdown of exports from ASEAN and South Asia to the US, the demand for importing yarn and fabrics decreased, resulting in a 1.9% and 1.6% decrease in China's textile intermediate product exports in May and June respectively, which dragged down the overall exports [50]. - **Domestic Consumption**: From January to June 2025, the national online retail sales were 7.4295 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 6.1191 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 15.7%, 1.4%, and 5.3% respectively. In June 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 4.2287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 3.7649 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 22.199 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5% [53]. 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - **Futures Positioning**: As of July 31, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 12,354 lots, 69 lots, and 83,202 lots respectively. Compared with July 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601 increased by 5,951 lots, PF2605 increased by 1 lot, and PF2509 decreased by 24,592 lots. Compared with July 31, 2024, the positions of PF2601 increased by 11,411 lots, PF2605 increased by 36 lots, and PF2509 increased by 35,723 lots [57]. - **Options**: The report also presents historical volatility and historical volatility cone charts of polyester staple fiber options, but no specific data analysis is provided [59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies. The resumption of production in the southwest region will be the marginal driving factor, and the overall price center may rise slightly, but there is also a possibility of a significant downward pressure after low expectations. For polysilicon, the policy expectations have peaked, and the valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's attention has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. The spot price is anchored to the cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. The dynamic news of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium. Continuously track the opportunity of shorting SI and going long on PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production rhythm of industrial silicon in the southwest region [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - In July, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. As of the 31st, the main contract 2509 closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.18%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated upward, and the main contract 2509 closed at 49,130 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 46.5% [4]. 2. Spot Price - The spot price continued to recover. The Baichuan reference price was 9,592 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 increased by 950 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 increased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon increased by 4,800 yuan/ton to 35,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon increased by 11,800 yuan/ton to 45,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Spread - In July, the spread between 553 grades widened, the spread between high and low grades widened, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 390 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot changed from a premium to a discount of 3,135 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in July was 352,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 6.6%. The monthly number of open furnaces increased by 47 to 262, and the furnace opening rate increased by 5.9% to 32.9%. In July, the polysilicon production increased by 9,400 tons to 105,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The DMC production in July increased by 20,500 tons to 207,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% and a month - on - month increase of 11% [2][4]. 5. Demand - Under the anti - involution policy, new capacity investment has stagnated, but the backlog of inventory has not been significantly reduced. After the inventory of downstream silicon wafers decreased, enterprises began to accept price increases and enter the market to purchase. Due to the sudden shutdown and maintenance of a large organic silicon factory in Shandong, the overall supply of monomer plants continued to shrink. Affected by the previous low prices, there were many pre - sale orders. Recently, influenced by the upstream price increase and the psychology of "buying on rising" of downstream customers, the purchase volume continued to improve marginally, and the inventory pressure of monomer plants was relieved [2]. 6. Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 9,000 tons to 253,000 tons in July, while the polysilicon inventory increased by 14,100 tons to 92,100 tons. In terms of social inventory, the industrial silicon inventory increased by 5,400 tons to 442,900 tons in July, among which the factory inventory increased by 5,900 tons to 271,400 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 55,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port remained stable at 68,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 500 tons to 48,500 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 5,600 tons to 27,540 tons [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX fundamentals maintain a weak balance, with obvious resilience in terminal demand. In the short - term, PX prices follow the cost of crude oil. In the future, during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is significant potential for demand and production to increase [139]. - For PTA, with large - scale device maintenance plans in August and new device production, the monthly output is expected to change little. Downstream demand provides resilient support. If oil prices are further pressured, TA prices will follow suit. Attention should be paid to demand recovery, tariff implementation progress, and significant oil price fluctuations [139]. - Regarding MEG, the supply is recovering well, and there is still room for domestic production to increase. The downstream demand provides resilient support. The inventory inflection point may arrive, and supply - demand will shift to inventory accumulation. Short - term prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in coal and oil prices [139]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, PTA's closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton (a 0.7% increase), MEG's increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton (a 3.0% increase), and PX's increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton (a 2.1% increase) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: PTA's basis decreased from 97 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton (a - 112.4% change), MEG's basis decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton (a - 3.9% change), and PX's basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 219 yuan/ton (a - 16.6% change). The TA - EG spread decreased from 433 yuan/ton to 339 yuan/ton (a - 21.7% change), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 333 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton (a - 17.4% change) [16][19][23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Spreads**: For ethylene glycol, the CFR China price increased by 3.1%, the FOB US Gulf price increased by 6.6%, the FD Northwest Europe price decreased by 7.5%, and the ethylene glycol spread (Europe - China) decreased by 54.6% from July 4 to July 31, 2025 [26]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 1, the Asian PX operating load was 73.4% (a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month), and China's was 81.1% (a 4.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). Some devices had unexpected outages or restarts [34]. - **PTA**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6% (a 5.1 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). New devices were put into production, and some existing devices were under maintenance [38]. - **MEG**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.64% (a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 74.04% (a 5.79 - percentage - point increase month - on - month). Some overseas devices were scheduled for maintenance [52][56]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In June 2025, China imported 76.54 million tons of PX, a 0.94% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 450.03 million tons, a 2.38% increase year - on - year [60]. - **PTA**: In June 2025, China exported 25.52 million tons of PTA, a 3.78% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 185.68 million tons, a 16.90% decrease year - on - year [61]. - **MEG**: In June 2025, China's monthly import volume of ethylene glycol was 61.78 million tons, a 2.34% increase month - on - month and a 1.30% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% year - on - year [62]. - **Polyester**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 124.9 million tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 719.2 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [66]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Increase in Downstream Finished - Product Inventory - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [77]. - **MEG**: As of July 28, the port inventory in the main eastern China ports was about 52.1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation was postponed [80]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the polyester operating load was 88.1%, a 2.3% decrease from July 4. The inventory days and cash - flow of some products also changed [83]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports**: In June 2025, textile and apparel exports were 273.1 billion US dollars, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1439.8 billion US dollars, an 0.8% increase [98]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 4, PTA's total position decreased by 202,221 hands, MEG's decreased by 4207 hands, and PX's increased by 23,384 hands [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market is characterized by increasing supply and stable demand, with rubber prices expected to fluctuate widely. In August, rubber production in the producing areas will enter a growth phase, with favorable weather and expected price adjustments for raw materials. Downstream demand is stable domestically but weak overseas, and rubber prices are expected to mainly show wide - range fluctuations [2][106]. - For butadiene rubber, the cost support is weakening, and prices are expected to decline. With the commissioning of butadiene production capacity, the price support from butadiene is diminishing, and the fundamentals of butadiene rubber show strong supply and stable demand, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly [107]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Price - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the RU main contract rose from 14,005 yuan/ton to 14,310 yuan/ton, the NR main contract rose from 12,095 yuan/ton to 12,175 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract rose from 11,275 yuan/ton to 11,455 yuan/ton [5]. - **Basis**: During the same period, the RU main contract basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis increased by 56 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Spreads**: The RU - NR price spread increased by 404 yuan/ton month - on - month in August 2025 compared to July 2025, but decreased by 215 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spreads between different rubber types also showed various changes [12]. - **Difference between Natural Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: The price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, increasing the substitution of synthetic rubber [18]. - **Profit**: In the peak rubber - tapping season, the rubber - tapping profit recovered. The processing profit of Thai standard rubber increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [20]. 3.2 Supply - **Global Natural Rubber Production**: In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons, with different trends in various countries [27]. - **Southeast Asian Main Producing Areas**: In August, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia entered the peak production season. The production of major countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam showed different trends. The export volume of major producing countries increased year - on - year cumulatively [31][35]. - **China's Imports**: China's imports of natural and mixed rubber continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year in June 2025 [40]. - **Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly month - on - month in August 2025. New butadiene production capacity was put into operation, and the production of butadiene rubber was at a high level. Some butadiene rubber plants had maintenance plans in August [43][46][49][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand for natural rubber was stable and increasing. The consumption of natural rubber in China showed a certain upward trend [57]. - **Tire Industry**: In August, the expected tire production start - up rate was expected to decline steadily. The inventory turnover days of tires decreased slightly. From January to June, tire exports increased year - on - year, but exports were expected to weaken in the second half of the year [60][64][66]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Industries**: Automobile production and sales continued to grow, and the demand for heavy - trucks stabilized and strengthened [69][72]. 3.4 Inventory - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of July 27, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.293 million tons. The inventory in Qingdao and the exchange inventory also showed certain changes [74][82]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, with the in - plant inventory decreasing and the trader inventory increasing [85]. 3.5 Position - **RU Main Contract Position**: The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations [86]. - **NR and BR Positions**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR all decreased [88]. 3.6 Options - **Natural Rubber Options**: The report presented historical volatility and put - call ratios of natural rubber options [91][93]. - **Butadiene Rubber Options**: Similar data on historical volatility and put - call ratios were provided for butadiene rubber options [96][102].

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, August 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, with the relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of Shunda and Arufa mining rights, the supply is expected to increase. Along with the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the surplus pressure of alumina will intensify. For electrolytic aluminum, the production of replacement capacity in Yunnan will continue to rise, and inventory accumulation may continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. Before the peak season in September, downstream stocking is expected to gradually start. For aluminum alloy, following the logic of Shanghai Aluminum during the off - season, it is expected to shift to the expectation of spread repair in the 2511 peak season. In August, the pattern of the aluminum industry's supply - demand marginal strength is expected to shift from upstream to downstream, with opportunities for the convergence of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread and the expansion of the AL2509 - AO2509 spread. Attention should be paid to the progress of the alumina anti - involution policy and the inventory accumulation cycle of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 1. Price - In July, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 3222 yuan/ton as of July 31, a monthly increase of 7.9%. Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20510 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.3%. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 19950 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 4% [5][6] 2. Spread - In July, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 129 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum changed from a premium of 40 yuan/ton to a discount of 20 yuan/ton [5] 3. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in July will increase to 88270000 tons, with a production of 7500000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. After Shandong enterprises completed regular maintenance, they returned to normal operation, and the operation in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi remained stable, with the overall operation continuing to pick up. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 43830000 tons, with a production of 3730000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. After inventory accumulation at the alloy end, the ingot - casting volume of the upstream increased, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] 4. Demand - In the off - season, downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand rhythm, and the decline in the off - season operating rate converged. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% decline compared to June. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 1.9% to 63.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 0.86% to 69.5%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3% to 50%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1.34% to 61.8%. The processing fee of aluminum rods in Henan decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while in other regions, it increased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The processing fee of aluminum poles in Guangdong remained stable, decreased by 100 yuan/ton in Shandong, and increased by 100 yuan/ton in Henan and Inner Mongolia [3] 5. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in July, alumina inventory decreased by 11400 tons to 6015 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased by 21500 tons to 115800 tons; LME inventory increased by 104100 tons to 461000 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 22400 tons to 48000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory increased by 76000 tons to 544000 tons; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6500 tons to 147000 tons [3][5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE US cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.22 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 decreased 1.27% to 13,650 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 26,391 lots to 349,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - For sugar, consulting firm StoneX lowered its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's central - south region to 40.16 million tons, a reduction of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The expected total cane crush is 598.8 million tons, a 3.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with future import pressure gradually emerging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: International market: After the macro super - week, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. Powell's speech reduced market bets on a September rate cut, and the US dollar index approached 100. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. Domestic market: The Zhengzhou cotton market continues to shift, with the 09 contract reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread widening. The 09 contract's open interest has returned to the average level in recent years, and the net long positions of the main players have decreased. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: StoneX's report shows a reduction in Brazil's sugar production forecast due to heavy rainfall in June. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the main contract is shifting positions. The market is returning to fundamentals, and future import pressure is emerging [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 190, down 40; the main contract basis is 1,675, down 40. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130, and the national spot price is 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 140, up 10; the main contract basis is 262, down 9. The Nanning spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,055 yuan per ton, down 20 [3]. 3. Market Information - On July 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous trading day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load remained flat at 49.3, and the yarn inventory rose to 29.6. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained flat at 47.8, and the inventory rose to 33.5 [4]. - On July 31, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][9][10][11][12]. - Charts for sugar include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17].