黑色商品日报 二、日度数据监测 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3134 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 24 元/吨，涨幅为 0.77%，持仓减少 8.97 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.5 万吨。 | | | | 据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 4.23%至 436.45 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.01%至 231.98 万吨，建材库存 | | | | 降幅扩大，热卷库存由降转增。生态环境部通报中央第三生态环境保护督察组督察河北省发现，唐山市违 | | | | 规上马钢铁项目、新增钢铁产能，部分企业违法排污问题突出，大气污染防治存在短板。受此影响，市场 | | | | 对于钢铁、焦化供应端收缩预期增强，对价格走势形成一定提振。不过当前市场已转入消费淡季，市场对 ...

Index Trends - On December 1st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, with a trading volume of 785.658 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25% to close at 13146.72 points, with a trading volume of 1088.279 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72%, with a trading volume of 392.32 billion yuan, opening at 7356.51, closing at 7386.68, with a daily high of 7388.62 and a low of 7342.6 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.0%, with a trading volume of 308.534 billion yuan, opening at 7053.85, closing at 7101.83, with a daily high of 7101.83 and a low of 7040.8 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.81%, with a trading volume of 112.813 billion yuan, opening at 2975.27, closing at 2993.68, with a daily high of 2994.45 and a low of 2972.79 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.1%, with a trading volume of 463.862 billion yuan, opening at 4539.19, closing at 4576.49, with a daily high of 4576.97 and a low of 4531.29 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 52.47 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 70.28 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 49.83 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 24.06 points from the previous close, with non - ferrous metals, electronics, and banking sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 80.52, IM01 was - 155.83, IM02 was - 313.92, and IM03 was - 554.48 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 57.52, IC01 was - 113.43, IC02 was - 230.5, and IC03 was - 439.6 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 19.24, IF01 was - 34.79, IF02 was - 54.29, and IF03 was - 102.8 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 8.15, IH01 was - 12.89, IH02 was - 14.48, and IH03 was - 25.92 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC, data such as IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, IC00 - 03, IC01 - 02, IC01 - 03, and IC02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000905.SH index [22]. - For IF, data such as IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, IF00 - 03, IF01 - 02, IF01 - 03, and IF02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000300.SH index [22]. - For IH, data such as IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, IH00 - 03, IH01 - 02, IH01 - 03, and IH02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000016.SH index [24]. - For IM, data such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, IM00 - 03, IM01 - 02, IM01 - 03, and IM02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000852.SH index [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices were strong, hitting record highs. The US manufacturing PMI in November was below expectations, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in December, which could affect global liquidity. Domestically, the estimated copper production in December is expected to increase, but demand has slowed due to high prices. With the Fed's December rate - cut fully priced in, there is uncertainty about whether the macro - environment can remain optimistic, and the price's continued rise is also uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. The expected environmental restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and复产 increased. High - price aluminum led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and inventory decreased. However, with the end of new energy vehicle purchase tax promotions and the completion of State Grid orders, the possibility of aluminum prices hitting new highs this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices fell slightly, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain was weak. In the new energy industry chain, raw materials were tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, one can consider buying at low prices, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was weak, and the BOJ's potential rate - hike may impact liquidity. Domestic production is expected to increase in December, but demand is sluggish. Inventory changes vary in different markets. The sustainability of price increases is uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures prices trended strongly, while spot prices had mixed performance. The non - occurrence of environmental restrictions and new production affected supply expectations. Demand was released in the short - term, but future growth is limited [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Futures prices rose, and inventory pressure increased. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry was weak, and the new energy industry faced a decline in precursor output. Consider buying at low prices with caution [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 89,195 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from November 28. LME inventory remained unchanged, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE total inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased [8]. - **Tin**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 2.1%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research and have won many industry awards [52][53].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 777.5 | 768.0 | 9.5 | I05-I09 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 0.5 | | I09 | 752.5 | 743.5 | 9.0 | I09-I01 | -48.5 | -50.5 | 2.0 | | I01 | 801.0 | 794.0 | 7.0 | I01-I05 | 23.5 | 26.0 | -2.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 220 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shifted focus to fundamental logic after the liquidity-driven rally since June. New productive forces led by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but the relevant themes have seen large gains since June and are in a volatile phase approaching the year - end. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume and volatility are decreasing, and risk appetite is falling, so the index is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - The central bank's operations have led to a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market shows a "good news exhausted" situation, with treasury bond yields rising slightly and the yield curve steepening. In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest - rate cuts, a marginally weakening but resilient economy, and mild inflation recovery, the treasury bond market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market trended upward on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,900 points. Stocks generally rose, and trading volume was close to 1.89 trillion yuan. After the liquidity rally since June, the market focuses on fundamentals. AI - related themes have optimistic growth expectations but are in a volatile state due to lack of catalysts. Traditional sectors are in a slow recovery. The index is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.08%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.12%, 0.1%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market shows a "good news exhausted" situation, and is expected to fluctuate narrowly in December [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From November 28 to December 1, 2025, IH rose 23.2 points (0.78%), IF rose 49.6 points (1.10%), IC rose 57.4 points (0.82%), and IM rose 29.2 points (0.40%) [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 rose 24.1 points (0.81%), the CSI 300 rose 49.8 points (1.10%), the CSI 500 rose 70.3 points (1.00%), and the CSI 1000 rose 52.5 points (0.72%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.034 points (0.03%), TF rose 0.095 points (0.09%), T rose 0.1 points (0.09%), and TL fell 0.12 points (- 0.10%) [3] Market News - **Model Release**: DeepSeek announced the release of two official models, DeepSeek - V3.2 and DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale. DeepSeek - V3.2 is suitable for daily use, while DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale aims to maximize reasoning ability [5] - **Housing Price**: In November, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, up 0.37% month - on - month and 2.68% year - on - year. Prices in first - tier cities rose 0.75% month - on - month and 6.66% year - on - year, in second - tier cities rose 0.36% month - on - month and 1.89% year - on - year, and in third - and fourth - tier cities fell 0.18% month - on - month and 1.55% year - on - year [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The section includes charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The section contains charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][14][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The section presents charts of the central parity rates, forward exchange rates, and currency indices of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB [21][22][24]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.77 美元至 59.32 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.32%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.79 美元至 63.17 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.27%。SC2601 以 453.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 0.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.04%。OPEC 发表声明，OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国 | | | | 中的 8 个主要产油国决定，维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，在 2026 | | | | 年一季度暂停增产。沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合 | | | | 酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举 | | | | 行线上会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。声明称，由于季节 | | | 原油 | 性因素，上述国家决定在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产步 | 震荡 | | | 伐，产量与 2025 年 12 月保 ...

光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：基本面供需驱动有限，宏观扰动或将加剧 p 2 钢材：基本面供需驱动有限，宏观扰动或将加剧 | 目录 | | --- | | 1、11月钢材期现货价格窄幅震荡，螺纹表现强于热卷； | | 2、10月粗钢、生铁产量继续回落，11月螺纹周产量回落、热卷周产量回落； | | 3、11月高炉开工率回升，产能利率及铁水产量回落，电炉开工率、产能利用率回升； | | 4、11月全国建材成交量回升，杭州市场出库量回落； | | 5、10月投资增速全面回落，11月螺纹表需回落，热卷表需回落； | | 6、11月螺纹库存继续下降，热卷库存下降； | | 7、11月螺纹盘面、热卷盘面亏损收窄，长流程钢厂亏损扩大、短流程钢厂亏损收窄。 | 注：本表期货价格为本周五夜盘收盘价格与上周五夜盘收盘价格对比。 数据来源:wind,光大期货研究所 p 3 p 4 1.1 价格：11月黑色系商品走势分化，煤焦大幅下跌，铁矿石、钢材窄幅震荡，螺纹强于热卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In December, the domestic urea market will maintain a state of high supply and low demand, but there are still supporting factors such as rigid demand and reserve demand. The downstream replenishment intensity will be the core factor determining the price trend. It is expected that the urea futures price will remain firm and oscillate, with limited upward space but strong support at the previous low [8]. - In December, the soda ash market may face pressures such as the expected output of new production capacity, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, and the continued decline of downstream production capacity. The supply - demand situation will remain loose, and the futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range bottom - oscillating trend [13]. - In November, the decline in glass supply drove the market to rebound, but the terminal demand is still weak, and the high - volume sales of spot need to be further observed. The futures market has limited upward momentum and is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Industrial Chain Raw Material Situation - **Futures Prices**: As of November 28, the closing price of the main urea futures contract increased by 3.2%; the main soda ash futures contract decreased by 3.92%; the main glass futures contract decreased by 2.77% [23]. - **Futures - related Varieties**: In November, the futures prices of related varieties showed a differentiated trend, with urea being the most robust and soda ash having the largest decline [25]. - **Coal Prices**: The prices of various types of coal in November increased compared with those in October, strengthening the cost support for the industry [27]. - **LNG Prices**: The LNG prices in most regions decreased in November [31]. - **Two - alkali Raw Material Salt**: In November, the prices of raw salt in most regions remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas, strengthening the cost support for soda ash [32]. 3.2 Urea: Market Focus Returns to Domestic in December, Pay Attention to Supply - demand Game - **Prices**: In November, both urea futures and spot prices increased. As of November 28, the closing price of the main futures contract was 1677 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase from the end of October; the spot prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: In November, the urea supply level steadily recovered, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons for a long time. In December, the supply reduction may be limited due to the offset of new production capacity [6]. - **Demand**: In November, the downstream demand increased, and the apparent consumption is expected to reach 6.1849 million tons, a 11.48% increase from October. In December, it is the off - season for agricultural demand, but there is still support from reserve demand [7]. - **Inventory**: In November, the urea enterprise inventory decreased by 12.25% compared with that at the end of October, but it is still at the second - highest level in the past five years [56]. - **Export**: In October, the urea export volume decreased by 12.32% compared with that in September. The export volume in November may decrease to the range of 500,000 - 700,000 tons, showing a downward trend in November - December [7]. - **International Market**: India's new round of tender procurement volume is lower than planned, and the international market disturbances may weaken [8]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Loose Situation Continues, Futures Market to Remain at the Bottom in December - **Prices**: In November, the soda ash futures price showed a weak bottom - oscillating trend, with a 3.92% decrease in the main contract closing price compared with the end of October. The spot price showed a differentiated trend, with light soda ash prices mostly increasing and heavy soda ash prices remaining stable [11]. - **Supply**: In November, the soda ash production level and supply decreased to a phased low. In December, the supply may recover to a high level due to the expected output of new production capacity and the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises [11]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for soda ash was differentiated, with rigid demand decreasing and replenishment demand increasing. In December, the rigid demand may continue to be under pressure [12]. - **Inventory**: In November, the soda ash enterprise inventory decreased by 6.2% compared with that at the end of October, but it is still at the second - highest level in the past five years. In December, the de - stocking pressure is still large [12]. - **Macro Policy**: There is news that China may introduce more incentive real - estate policies, which may have a positive impact on the soda ash - glass industry chain [13]. 3.4 Glass: Supply Decline Drives Sentiment Improvement, but Limited Trend Momentum in the Market - **Prices**: In November, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, with a 2.77% decrease in the main contract closing price compared with the end of October. The spot price continued to decline, with a 6.26% decrease in the average market price [15]. - **Supply**: In November, the glass supply level decreased slightly. The market's expectation of supply decline will continue into December [15]. - **Demand**: The core limiting factor for the glass market is the weak terminal demand. In December, the decline in demand may narrow [16]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of November, the glass enterprise inventory decreased by 5.21% compared with that at the end of October [15]. - **Macro Policy**: There is news that China may introduce more incentive real - estate policies, which may have a positive impact on the soda ash - glass industry chain [17].

铝策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：宏观引领，支撑有力 | | --- | | 总 结 | | 1.供给：据SMM，11月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至9045万吨，产量747万吨，环比下滑4%，同比增长1.8%。国内运行产能延续高位，11月末 | | 河南及山西产线检修升级结束回归复产，广西新投产能进入前期准备阶段。11月国内电解铝运行产能小幅降至4406万吨，产量361.5万吨，环比 | | 下滑3.5%，同比增长0.9%，铝水比回落至77%。海外频发减产动态，莫扎尔铝厂宣布停产时间，世纪铝业冰岛冶炼厂产线停槽，力拓澳洲铝厂停 | | 产。国内电解铝供给延续高位，广西技改项目复产，山东-云南二期置换项目逐步启槽投产。 | | 2.需求：旺季逐步转淡，11月铝下游加工企业平均开工率62%，环比10月下调0.42%。其中铝板带开工率下调1.15%至66.2%，铝箔开工率下调 | | 1.35%至70.75%，铝型材开工率下调1.13%至52.45%，铝线缆开工 ...

光期研究 2 0 2 5 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 涤纶短纤：成本下调明显，利润或存修复预期 p 2 | | 目 录 | | --- | --- | | 1、涤纶短纤价格：跟随原油价格震荡 | | | 2、涤纶短纤成本端：关注装置落地情况 | | | 3、涤纶短纤供应端：开工持续高位 | | | 4、涤纶短纤需求端：订单季节性走弱 | | | 5、涤纶短纤终端需求：终端需求走弱 | | | 6、涤纶短纤持仓情况 | | 2 0 2 5年1 2月涤纶短纤策略报告 p 4 图表：涤纶短纤基差季节性（元/吨） 图表：涤纶短纤期现价格与基差（元/吨） -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 2021/2/26 2022/2/26 2023/2/26 2024/2/26 2025/2/26 基差 期货收盘价(活跃):短纤( ...