| 品种 | | | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | | | | | | | | 周四，玉米震荡收十字星，近月合约企稳反弹。11 | | | | | 月合约跌至 2150 整数支撑， 期价企稳反弹，与近月下跌相比，远期 1 月合约仍延续弱势表现。近期黑龙江、 | | | 内蒙古深加工收购价格持续下滑，新季玉米供应较为充足，深加工门前排队车辆 | | | | | | | | 较多，市场对于新季市场的预期较为一般。华北蒜茬玉米与夏玉米已大量涌入市 | | | | | | | | 场，虽前期阴雨天气延缓收割晾晒，但新粮整体上市量较去年同期显著增加。贸 | | | | | | | | 震荡下行 | | | | | 易商受市场看空情绪影响，囤粮意愿低迷，多采取 "随收随走" 策略，进一步 | | | 加剧市场供应压力。销区玉米价格整体以稳为主，部分港口现货供应偏紧，报价 | | | | | | | | 窄幅上调，加之受台风天气影响，到港速度放缓，支撑现货价格。下游提货节奏 | | | | | | | | 放缓，节前补库现象 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点评 25 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 9055 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.72%， 持仓减仓 10966 手至 25.99 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9604 元/吨， 较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格回涨至 8900 元/吨，现货贴 水扩至 155 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 51365 元/吨，日 内涨幅 0.89%，持仓减仓 5713 手至 10.5 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格涨至 52500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 1135 元/吨。双节前硅煤价格攀升、工业硅复产收敛叠加下游备货 提开工，库存出现去化。短期成本支撑与高库存压制并存，存在偏强 支撑。多晶硅能耗政策意见稿发布，1/2 级标准稍有提升。由于特朗普 计划将硅产品纳入征税清单。在内外政策联动且均未落地阶段，多晶 硅抢生产和抢出口情绪浓厚。政策和实际供需演绎方向背离，期现或 延续分歧，关注国内政策落地情况和美税率协定情况。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of oil prices, but they have not broken through the oscillation range. Before the long - holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions to avoid extreme fluctuations in the external market [1]. - The supply and demand of different products have different impacts on prices. For example, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, which will put pressure on the market; the supply of asphalt is high, and the upward space of prices may be affected; the supply of polyolefins is stable, and demand is improving marginally; the supply of PVC is high, and domestic demand recovers slowly [3][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 11 - month contract closed down $0.01 to $64.98/barrel, Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.34 to $68.8/barrel, and SC2511 closed up 2.2 yuan to 491.1 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical events such as Ukraine's attack on Russian ports and Trump's remarks have increased market volatility. BP predicts that global oil demand will continue to grow before 2030. The oil price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 rose 1.3%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 rose 1.56%. In August 2025, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a new high this year. The supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited upside [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 1.3%. The traditional consumption season brings stocking demand, but the high supply in October may limit price increases. The price is expected to remain stable, and the actual demand needs attention [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.12%, EG2601 rose 0.28%, and PX futures rose 1.09%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The polyester load decreased slightly. The prices of the polyester chain followed the cost increase, but there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for TA and EG, with pressure on the upside [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 fell 50 yuan, NR fell 35 yuan, and BR rose 25 yuan. The US - EU trade agreement and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the impact of typhoons on production areas, affect the market. The demand for downstream tires is stable, and the export support weakens. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to position risks during the holiday [5][6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2252 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas supply is affected by device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The methanol price is expected to enter a stage - bottom, and the basis will strengthen. A strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins can be considered [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins shows different trends. The supply will remain high, and the demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The overall situation is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in different regions shows different trends. The domestic real - estate construction has a slow recovery, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies. The supply is high, and the total inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 25 - 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Iraq's Kurdish region will resume exporting oil to Turkey from this Saturday, with an expected export volume of about 230,000 barrels per day [13]. - Ukraine attacked Russian ports on the Black Sea coast, paralyzing oil shipping facilities near the Novorossiysk port, with a daily export volume of about 2 million barrels of crude oil [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and analyzes the basis changes over time [31][32][35]. - **4.3 Inter - contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc., analyzing the spread changes between different contracts [45][46][47]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [60][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [70][72][74]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional responsibilities [76][77][78].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 沪指全天窄幅震荡，创业板指涨超 1.5%，再创 3 年多以来新高。个股跌多涨 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 少，沪深京三市超 3800 股飘绿，今日成交 2.39 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.01%， 深成指涨 0.67%，创业板指涨 1.58%。美联储降息 25BP，但表态相对谨慎， | | | | 其内部对于年内降息路径存在分化，权益市场涨跌不一，目前市场预计年内 | | | | 降息 3 次。国内方面，此前发布的 8 月经济数据中消费、投资等需求端指标 | | | | 环比均有小幅走低，体现经济筑底企稳仍在路上，本轮行情主要计价中长期 | | | 股指 | 政策预期，当期基本面因素影响有限。此前，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 | 偏强 | | | 厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围 | | | | 内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管总量仍有提 | | | | 升空间，但对于提升居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预计未 ...

1. Index Trends - On September 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.01%, closing at 3853.3 points with a trading volume of 1001.211 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of 0.67%, closing at 13445.9 points with a trading volume of 1369.879 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.37% and a trading volume of 464.745 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7521.32, a closing price of 7506.51, a daily high of 7563.08, and a low of 7487.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of 0.24% and a trading volume of 493.047 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7325.66, a closing price of 7341.32, a daily high of 7379.61, and a low of 7312.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of 0.6% and a trading volume of 669.867 billion yuan, with an opening price of 4563.98, a closing price of 4593.49, a daily high of 4613.95, and a low of 4558.84 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of 0.45% and a trading volume of 158.667 billion yuan, with an opening price of 2944.73, a closing price of 2952.74, a daily high of 2962.18, and a low of 2941.87 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index rose -27.71 points from the previous closing price. Media and communication sectors significantly pulled the index up, while basic chemicals, machinery, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 17.61 points from the previous closing price. Computer, machinery, and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the non - banking financial sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 27.42 points from the previous closing price. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 13.23 points from the previous closing price. Non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index up, while food and beverage and banking sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of -69.91, IM01 of -156.48, IM02 of -236.36, and IM03 of -449.96 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of -51.53, IC01 of -122.3, IC02 of -177.77, and IC03 of -356.12 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of -8.53, IF01 of -24.0, IF02 of -33.81, and IF03 of -65.69 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 2.04, IH01 of -0.05, IH02 of 1.44, and IH03 of -0.53 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc.) [21]. - For IC, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc.) [23]. - For IF, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc.) [24]. - For IH, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc.) [26].

Group 1: Index Trends - On September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3853.64 points, with a trading volume of 1015.708 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% to close at 13356.14 points, with a trading volume of 1311.076 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.7%, with a trading volume of 494.398 billion yuan. The opening price was 7375.91, the closing price was 7534.22, the highest price was 7534.22, and the lowest price was 7342.47 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 477.262 billion yuan. The opening price was 7140.31, the closing price was 7323.71, the highest price was 7327.02, and the lowest price was 7133.43 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.15 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, computer, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 143.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.29 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 20.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - banking finance significantly driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.26, IM01 had - 162.97, IM02 had - 245.25, and IM03 had - 458.47 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 64.91, IC01 had - 135.65, IC02 had - 194.16, and IC03 had - 370.82 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.42, IF01 had - 24.74, IF02 had - 33.98, and IF03 had - 62.97 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.28, IH01 had - 0.36, IH02 had 0.56, and IH03 had 0.71 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [24]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [25]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [22]

Group 1: Research Views - On September 24, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.84%. The open interest decreased by 2,765 lots to 271,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,604 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The open interest decreased by 4,904 lots to 111,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 1,120 yuan/ton [2]. - Before the double festivals, the price of silicon coal increased, the resumption of industrial silicon production slowed down, and downstream stocking increased the operating rate, leading to inventory depletion. In the short term, there is a coexistence of cost support and high - inventory pressure, providing some upward support [2]. - A draft of the energy - consumption policy for polysilicon was released, with a slight increase in the first - and second - level standards. Due to Trump's plan to include silicon products in the tax list, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon during the stage when both domestic and foreign policies are not yet implemented. The policy and the actual supply - demand situation deviate, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may continue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic policies and the US tax rate agreement [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Futures Settlement Price - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose from 8,925 yuan/ton on September 23 to 9,020 yuan/ton on September 24, an increase of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 8,890 yuan/ton to 8,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon: The main contract rose from 50,260 yuan/ton on September 23 to 51,380 yuan/ton on September 24, an increase of 1,120 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 50,215 yuan/ton to 51,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,775 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Price - Industrial silicon: Most spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable from September 23 to September 24 [3]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type polysilicon dense material, N - type recycled polysilicon material, N - type granular silicon material, P - type polysilicon dense material, and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51,000 yuan/ton, 52,500 yuan/ton, 49,500 yuan/ton, 36,000 yuan/ton, and 37,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Organic silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable at 11,100 yuan/ton, 12,100 yuan/ton, and 11,800 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil rose from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton [3]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 38 to 49,925; the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 620 to 249,370 tons; the weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons; the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 to 79,000 tons; the weekly inventory at Kunming Port remained unchanged at 49,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 3,800 to 261,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1,800 to 444,400 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 7,850; the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.2 to 23.70 million tons; the weekly polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.8 to 24.21 million tons; the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.8 to 24.2 million tons [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][17][19]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][24][26]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly, with domestic spot imports in a loss situation. The strong real - estate demand in the US exceeded market expectations, showing economic resilience. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia may have a long - term impact on copper supply, and it is expected to drive a significant increase in the average copper price in the fourth quarter. Investors are advised to follow the trend and mainly go long on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. However, domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. The subsequent increase in aluminum prices depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The bottom of the nickel price may rise slightly due to macro factors, supply - side disturbances, and the strengthening of raw material prices, but inventory remains a resistance to the price increase [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - **Macro**: US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, much higher than the expected 650,000 units, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US Treasury Secretary expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed Chairman and called for a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year [1]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 144,775 tons to 200 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 142 tons to 288,695 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons to 27,419 tons, and BC copper remained at 6,445 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream buyers are afraid of high copper prices and macro uncertainties, with weak procurement enthusiasm, and domestic social inventory de - stocking is not ideal [1]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia is expected to reduce copper and gold production by about 35% (about 270,000 tons) in 2026 compared to previous expectations, and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will also be greatly affected [1]. Aluminum - **Futures**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,916 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; AL2510 closed at 20,805 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; AD2511 closed at 20,435 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1][2]. - **Spot**: SMM alumina price dropped to 3,008 yuan/ton, aluminum ingot spot discount was 10 yuan/ton to par, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,620 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point, and downstream procurement willingness has declined [2]. Nickel - **Futures**: LME nickel rose 0.62% to 15,435 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.88% to 122,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 132 tons to 120,586 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons to 24,971 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sanctions on 39 nickel - mining enterprises in Indonesia have little impact on overall supply. In the stainless - steel sector, cost support has strengthened, but supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand has weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may be relatively tight [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons, and the total inventory increased by 11,760 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 3,450 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 9,229 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 1,224 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 765 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 2,334 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.5%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 17 US dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [17][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown [43][45][49]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a master's degree in science and is currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [52]. - **Wang Heng**: He holds a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is mainly responsible for the research on aluminum and silicon [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: She holds a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK, and focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate downward. The new - season corn supply is abundant, trade merchants have low inventory - holding willingness, and the mid - term outlook remains weak despite a technical rebound of the November contract [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. The price is affected by concerns over US soybean export demand and domestic pre - holiday stocking. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil trades in a narrow range, and domestic oils stop falling. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. As the National Day holiday approaches, the demand peak is ending. The supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity provides some support. Light - position participation is recommended [1]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. Pig supply is normal with some regional increases, and holiday demand has limited boosting effects. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 32.9%, and that of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed is 14.3% [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin levels of various futures contracts around the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin standards and price limit ranges of some futures contracts during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, and some contracts will return to pre - adjustment levels after the holiday [4]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][11][14][17][19][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.75% to 66.14 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.07% to 13,555. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,775 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The international market's focus is on the macro - level, and the strong U.S. dollar index pressured the U.S. cotton futures price. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton stopped falling on the 24th, and the market sentiment improved. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and there is pressure from the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton faces upward pressure but has limited downward space due to multiple factors [2]. - For sugar, the consulting agency StoneX predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase from the 2025/26 season, and the cane crushing volume will reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar futures price rebounded above 5500 points, and before the holiday, with margin increases, it is expected to show weak oscillations. Attention should be paid to the crushing progress in Inner Mongolia [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 15 (up 35), the main contract basis was 1507 (down 86). The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,024 yuan per ton (down 46), and the national spot price was 15,062 yuan per ton (down 71) [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 37 (up 11), the main contract basis was 358 (down 53). The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan per ton (unchanged), and in Liuzhou was 5855 yuan per ton (unchanged) [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 24th, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3716 (down 199 from the previous day), and the effective forecast was 12. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 15,024 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,044 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,064 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,135 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 24th, the yarn comprehensive load was 50.2 (up 0.1), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.9 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.5 (down 0.3), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.1 (up 0.1) [4]. - On September 24th, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5780 yuan per ton (unchanged), and in Liuzhou was 5855 yuan per ton (unchanged). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 9854 (down 168 from the previous day), and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices of both cotton and sugar, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many industry - related awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile senior analyst title in 2024 [22]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [25].