Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 2603 contract of corn resumed rising, with near - month contracts leading the increase and forward contracts following. The spot market is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The domestic average corn price is 2321 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The overall view is that corn is in an oscillatory state. Short - term long positions should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on the strong performance of surrounding commodities. [2] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand and a sharp rise in soybean oil futures. The U.S. soybean single - week net sales were 2.0619 million tons, which is positive. Domestically, protein meal continued to weaken, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The overall view is that soybean meal is oscillatory, and a double - selling strategy is recommended. Rapeseed meal should pay attention to Canada's visit to China, and an option double - buying strategy is suggested. [2] - Oils: BMD palm oil fell on Thursday, following the decline in the surrounding market. CBOT soybean oil rose sharply, and Canadian rapeseed prices increased. The domestic oil market was weak but rose sharply at night, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. The overall view is that oils are oscillatory, and a strategy of selling put options is recommended. [2] - Eggs: The egg futures rebounded on Thursday, with the 2603 contract rising 1.96%. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that eggs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Short - term long positions can be moderately participated in, and the influence of funds and sentiment on the market should be continuously monitored. [2][3] - Pigs: The 2603 contract of live pigs rebounded during the session on Thursday and then declined in the afternoon. The spot price of live pigs was relatively stable. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that live pigs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Long positions should be held cautiously, and short - term market sentiment changes and the impact of spot prices on the futures market should be monitored. [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - On the 12th noon, MPOB announced the Malaysian palm oil data for December. The production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly less than the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, all within market expectations. The 1 - 2 month production is expected to decline seasonally, and with India's festival stocking demand approaching, Malaysian palm oil may gradually reach a high - inventory inflection point. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's slight increase in export LEVY and the implementation of the U.S. RVO policy. [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given. [5][6][8][9][12] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these bases is given. [14][15][18][20][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of DCE in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of DCE in 2023. [27] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times, and her team has won many awards. [27] - Kong Hailan, an analyst for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures, has a master's degree in economics. Her team has won many awards, and she has been interviewed by many mainstream media. [27]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. For steel, the supply - demand data is moderately strong, and the loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. For iron ore, the supply and demand are intertwined. For coking coal, the increase in downstream procurement supports the price. For coke, the cost increase and demand for replenishment by steel mills co - exist. For manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon, the cost and pre - holiday stocking have a certain supporting effect, but they are mainly affected by the overall trend of the black commodity sector[1][3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Steel - The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.63 million lots in positions. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume was low. The national rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.99 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and 26 million tons in the lunar calendar. The social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons to 2.9541 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and an increase of 17.2 million tons in the lunar calendar. The factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons to 1.4266 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase of 17.29 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and 21.13 million tons in the lunar calendar. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.38 million tons to 1.9034 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase of 5.19 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and a decrease of 29.24 million tons in the lunar calendar. The short - term rebar price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range[1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 fell to 813 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and a decrease of 10,000 lots in positions. The prices of port spot mainstream varieties decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, resulting in a slight decrease in global shipments. The iron - making water production decreased by 1.49 million tons to 2.2801 billion tons week - on - week. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 2.44 million tons to 172.89 billion tons, and the steel mill inventory continued to increase by 2.72 million tons to 92.62 billion tons. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.75%, with an increase of 4546 lots in positions. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased. The coking coal production is steadily recovering, and the downstream's enthusiasm for inquiring and purchasing has increased. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1745 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a decrease of 1163 lots in positions. The spot price at the port was stable. Due to the increase in raw coal prices, the cost of coking enterprises has increased, and the overall production enthusiasm is not high. However, the steel mills' demand for coke replenishment has increased. The coke price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.5 Manganese - Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese - silicon futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5870 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 4823 lots to 243,800 lots. The market price of manganese - silicon in each region was basically flat. The northern mainstream steel mills' tender quantity in January was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2300 tons month - on - month, and the first inquiry price was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The weekly production of manganese - silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand during the steel tender period is supported, but the duration may be limited. The manganese ore price has increased steadily. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has decreased from a high level but is still significantly higher year - on - year. The short - term manganese - silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate with the overall black commodity sector[3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.27% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 1622 lots to 215,000 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in each region was basically flat. The overall production of ferrosilicon is relatively stable, and the weekly production is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The procurement demand for ferrosilicon is supported during the steel tender period. The post - holiday electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia have decreased slightly, and the production cost has decreased week - on - week. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has changed week - on - week, and the inventory in Inner Mongolia is relatively high. The short - term ferrosilicon price is expected to fluctuate with the overall black commodity sector[3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides detailed data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between varieties[4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, as well as the profit charts of rebar[6][16][25][41][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications[52].

Research Views - On January 15, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,730 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.46%. The position decreased by 4,469 lots to 231,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,628 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 48,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.38%. The position decreased by 641 lots to 47,798 lots. The price of N-type recycled silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 54,750 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 6,080 yuan/ton [2]. - Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot-futures traders. The inventory of manufacturers is gradually shifting to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory is increasing [2]. - Recently, the cost side has been relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a volatile situation. There have been frequent news of anti-involution and industry self-discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown before the Spring Festival in Xinjiang, the production areas have started pre-festival rush operations, resulting in concentrated warehouse receipt registrations, and the overheated speculative sentiment has cooled down. The premium space above polysilicon is limited [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 8,730 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,630 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no changes in prices for different regions and grades such as non-oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon [4]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 11,139 tons. The weekly inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, while the inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons, and the total social inventory remained unchanged at 457,850 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 275 yuan/ton to 48,670 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, including N-type mixed polycrystalline silicon material, N-type recycled polycrystalline silicon material, N-type granular silicon material, and P-type polycrystalline silicon dense material [4]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 275 yuan to 6,080 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 60 tons to 4,560 tons. The weekly inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 12,000 tons to 132,900 tons. The factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 311,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 312,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The price of DMC in the East China market and raw rubber remained unchanged at 14,000 yuan/ton and 14,800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [6][9][11] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16] Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][21] Cost and Profit - Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][28] Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have received many industry awards [34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] Report's Core View - The international oil price experienced its largest single - day decline since October last year after Trump hinted that the US might postpone military action against Iran. With the easing of the Iran situation, the geopolitical premium of crude oil faded, and the oil price is expected to move in a volatile manner. The impact of the US on the Iran issue will continue, but the probability of short - term intensification of the conflict has decreased. The market is also affected by domestic macro - policies and the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting [1] - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur market will maintain sufficient supply in the short term, and the high - sulfur market has some support. The entry of Venezuelan heavy crude oil may have a negative impact on relevant spreads. The absolute prices of FU and LU will mainly follow the oil price and be affected by geopolitical situations [2] - The asphalt market is driven by the tightening of processing raw materials and the decrease in refinery supply. It is expected to be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation", and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [2] - The polyester sector has回调 due to the decline in oil prices. With the low processing margin, polyester factories will have maintenance in January - March, and terminal industries will have a concentrated holiday during the Spring Festival. So, the polyester market will be in a short - term volatile callback [4] - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere but may be pressured by inventory accumulation after the low - production season, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4][6] - For methanol, the decline in arrivals in January is offset by the decrease in MTO device load, and the port will face de - stocking pressure. It is expected to maintain a bottom - volatile trend, but the tense Iran situation may increase its volatility [6] - For polyolefins, there will be a slight reduction in supply in January, and demand will recover in the first half of the month and decline in the second half. The inventory is expected to rise in the second half of January, and the price will remain volatile at the bottom [6][7] - For PVC, the supply is at a high - level shock, and domestic demand is slowing down. The 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will put pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research View - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI February contract closed down $2.83 to $59.19 per barrel, a 4.56% drop; Brent March contract closed down $2.76 to $63.76 per barrel, a 4.15% drop; SC2602 closed at 439.2 yuan per barrel, down 12.2 yuan, a 2.70% decline. The market is affected by the Iran situation and domestic and overseas policies, and the oil price is expected to be volatile [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2603 of fuel oil on the SHFE rose 1.33% to 2586 yuan per ton, and the main contract LU2603 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.48% to 3087 yuan per ton. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore and Fujairah increased. The low - sulfur market has sufficient supply, and the high - sulfur market has some support. The entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may affect spreads [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2602 of asphalt on the SHFE rose 1.38% to 3168 yuan per ton. The shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises also increased. The market is driven by raw material tightening and supply reduction, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed down 1.33% at 5048 yuan per ton; EG2605 closed down 1.29% at 3817 yuan per ton. Some polyester production devices have maintenance or load - reduction plans. The oil price decline drives the polyester sector to回调, and it will be in a short - term volatile callback [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber on the SHFE fell 165 yuan per ton to 15995 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 165 yuan per ton to 12850 yuan per ton. The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere but may be pressured by inventory accumulation [4] - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in different regions varies. The arrival in January is expected to decline, and the MTO device load also decreases. The port will face de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The prices of different polyolefin products have different trends. The supply will have a slight reduction in January, and the demand will recover in the first half of the month and decline in the second half. The inventory is expected to rise in the second half of January, and the price will remain volatile at the bottom [6][7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market prices in different regions have different changes. The supply is at a high - level shock, and domestic demand is slowing down. The price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [7] 2. Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on January 15 and 14, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [8] 3. Market News - Trump hinted that the US might postpone military action against Iran, leading to the largest single - day decline in international oil prices since October last year [1][10] - Multiple Fed officials hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in the next policy meeting, but the market generally expects the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged in the January 27 - 28 meeting [10] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][27] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][32][36][37][39][40] 4.3 Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [42][44][47][50][52][54][56] 4.4 Inter - Product Spreads - The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, etc [58][62][63][64] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, etc [66][68] 5. Research Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional achievements in the energy and chemical research field [71][72][73][74] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76]

Report Summary 1. Index Movements - On January 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.33% to close at 4112.6 points, with a trading volume of 1175.915 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% to close at 14306.73 points, with a trading volume of 1729.581 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.2%, with a trading volume of 638.66 billion yuan. Its opening price was 8197.06, closing price 8240.78, daily high 8267.81, and daily low 8151.11 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 0.05%, with a trading volume of 600.802 billion yuan. Its opening price was 8170.35, closing price 8223.27, daily high 8249.03, and daily low 8148.79 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.21%, with a trading volume of 158.768 billion yuan. Its opening price was 3104.33, closing price 3105.58, daily high 3130.99, and daily low 3097.11 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.21%, with a trading volume of 158.768 billion yuan. Its opening price was 3104.33, closing price 3105.58, daily high 3130.99, and daily low 3097.11 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 16.39 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and basic chemicals had a significant positive impact on the index, while national defense and military industry, media, and computer sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased 4.43 points from the previous closing price. Electronics, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors pulled the index up, while non - bank finance, computer, and national defense and military industry sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 9.5 points from the previous closing price. Electronics, communication, and non - ferrous metals sectors contributed positively, while computer, bank, and non - bank finance sectors had a negative effect [3]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 6.49 points from the previous closing price. Electronics, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industry sectors pushed the index up, while communication, food and beverage, and bank sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was 3.56, IM01 was - 19.06, IM02 was - 62.87, and IM03 was - 254.72 [12]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was 3.15, IC01 was - 4.82, IC02 was - 23.95, and IC03 was - 168.07 [12]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was 0.87, IF01 was - 0.79, IF02 was - 5.45, and IF03 was - 47.17 [12]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was - 1.86, IH01 was - 1.92, IH02 was 0.12, and IH03 was - 4.64 [12].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 01 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场高位震荡，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.16%，成交额 2.94 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.2%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.05%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.2%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.21%。央行将下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 25BP。 | | | | 结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 | | | | 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总 | | | | 量稳定的基础上，对于特定领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中， | | | 股指 | 有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。此外，更低的融资成本有助 | 震荡 | | | 于相关板块资本性支出提升，促进企业盈利的增加，有助于长期资金提升对 | | | | 相关题材的配置。此前，沪深交易所发布通知，将融资买入证券保证金最低 | | | | 比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The market is expected to be volatile. The near - month contracts lead the rise, and the spot market is supported by pre - holiday stocking. However, factors such as reserve grain release, imported corn, and substitutes suppress price increases [2]. - Soybean Meal: The market is in a volatile and bearish trend. Weakness in US soybeans, lower import costs, and expected improvement in China - Canada relations contribute to the decline. A double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Edible Oils: The market is volatile. BMD palm oil dropped due to Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan, but export demand from major consumer countries limited the decline. A strategy of selling put options is suggested [2]. - Eggs: The market will continue to be in a volatile adjustment pattern. Spot prices are rising, and the narrowing of breeding losses is not conducive to effective capacity reduction in the long - term [2]. - Pigs: The market shows a volatile trend. The futures contract may continue to rebound in the short - term, but high - price acceptance from slaughtering enterprises is low, restricting price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil data for December 2026: Production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly down from the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons. The data was relatively neutral compared to expectations. Production in January - February is expected to decline seasonally, and the high - inventory inflection point may occur. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's export LEVY increase and the US RVO policy [4]. 3.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread analysis is provided [5][6][8][9][12]. 3.2 Contract Basis - The report shows the contract basis of multiple agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, with no detailed basis analysis [14][15][18][20][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of narrow - range fluctuations. Although steel exports reached historical highs in 2025, domestic supply - demand margins have weakened, and the short - term disk price is expected to move in a narrow - range [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillatory trend due to the mixed influence of supply and demand factors, with attention on restocking demand [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. The coking coal market is affected by production limitations in some mines and increased demand from the recovery of blast furnaces, while the coke market is influenced by the cost of coking coal and the demand for restocking by steel mills [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to follow the overall black - commodity trend and oscillate. Their prices are affected by factors such as cost, steel procurement, and inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume was low. In December 2025, China's steel exports reached 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. The annual export volume also hit a record high. Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, production has increased, demand has weakened, and inventory has started to accumulate. It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 821 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Port spot prices showed mixed trends. Australian and Brazilian shipments continued to decline, while those from other countries increased. There were new blast furnace overhauls and restarts, and iron - water production increased. Port and steel mill inventories accumulated. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1191 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (3.8%), with a decrease in positions. Some coal mines had production limitations, and steel - mill iron - water production recovered, increasing demand. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1745 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (1.41%), with a decrease in positions. Port spot prices fell. Coking coal prices stopped falling and rebounded, and steel mills' demand for restocking increased. However, the steel market is in the off - season, and some steel mills will still conduct overhauls before the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5920 yuan/ton, down 0.34%. The main - contract positions decreased. Market prices in various regions were between 5630 - 5820 yuan/ton. The black - commodity sector was weak, and steel procurement had new progress. Production decreased slightly, demand was supported during steel procurement, and costs were stable with a slight increase. Inventory decreased from a high level but was still significantly higher year - on - year. It is expected to follow the overall black - commodity trend [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5690 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The main - contract positions decreased. Market prices in various regions were around 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton. Production was relatively stable at a five - year low, demand was supported during steel procurement, costs decreased slightly, and inventory increased. It is expected to follow the overall black - commodity trend [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing - price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][29]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Displays the spread trends of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][43][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: Shows the profit trends of rebar main - contract disk profits, long - process calculated profits, and short - process calculated profits [46][47][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Introduces members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [51][52].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.12%，报收 64.96 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.3%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 14810 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 5213 手至 84.24 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价 格指数 15615 元/吨，较前一日上涨 5 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国 CPI 数据公布后， 1 月不降息概率增加，美元指数重新站上 99。基本面角度来看，USDA1 月报告公 | | | | 布，环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉产量预期值，对美棉价格有一定支持。国内市场方 | | | 棉花 | 面，昨日郑棉振幅收窄，重心环比小幅上移。USDA1 月报中环比调增 2025/26 年 | 震荡 | | | 度中国棉花产量、消费量预期值，基本符合市场预期。基本面来看，纺织企业对 | | | | 于价格回落后的棉花表现出一定承接意愿，目前大中小型纺织企业原料库存储备 | | | | 差异相对较大，关注节前纺企补货动作。综合来看，短期郑棉或在当前位置有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core View of the Report - On January 14th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position decreased by 7,380 lots to 235,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 1.46%. The position decreased by 405 lots to 48,439 lots. The price of N-type re - fed silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 54,750 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 5,805 yuan/ton. Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot - futures traders. The manufacturers' inventory is gradually transferred to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory increases. Recently, the cost side has been relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a fluctuating trend. There have been frequent news of anti - involution and industry self - discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown in Xinjiang before the Spring Festival, the production areas have started pre - festival rush operations, resulting in concentrated warrant registrations, and the over - speculative sentiment has cooled down. The upside premium space of polysilicon is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,635 yuan/ton on January 13th to 8,755 yuan/ton on January 14th, up 120 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 215 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 12 to 11,140 (daily), the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons (weekly), the Huangpu Port inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons (weekly), the Tianjin Port inventory remained unchanged at 80,000 tons (weekly), the Kunming Port inventory remained unchanged at 52,000 tons (weekly), the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons (weekly), and the total social inventory of industrial silicon remained unchanged at 457,850 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,005 yuan/ton on January 13th to 48,945 yuan/ton on January 14th, down 60 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium widened from 5,745 yuan/ton to 5,805 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 40 to 4,500 (daily), the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 13.29 tons (weekly), the polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 31.18 tons (weekly), and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.4 tons to 31.2 tons [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 14,000 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained stable at 14,800 yuan/ton, the price of 107 - glue remained stable at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4] 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16] 2.3 Inventory - Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][19][21] 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][28] 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the field of non - ferrous metal research [34][35]