工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 分项 | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7075 | 7175 | 100 | | | | 近月 | 7075 | 7175 | 100 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8150 | 8100 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8200 | 8150 | -50 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8000 | 7950 | -50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8350 | 8300 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8150 | 8100 | -50 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8550 | 8500 | -50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8200 | 8150 | -50 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，走势先抑后扬。截至收盘主力09合约报1774元/吨，日 | 震荡 | | | 环比收平。现货市场多数稳定，个别地区小幅波动，山东、河南地区市场价格分别 | | | | 稳定在1870元/吨、1850元/吨。近期尿素供应水平高位波动，昨日行业日产量20.47 | | | | 万吨，日环比下 0.16万吨。需求端跟进仍较为谨慎，农业产区麦收，对农资采购 | | | | 动分散。昨日主流地区尿素产销率徘徊在20%~50%区间，仅个别地区能达到产销 | | | | 平衡。另外，近期部分下游开工下滑，对尿素刚需也有所减弱。本周尿素企业库存 | | | | 提升5.59%，部分企业为缓解出货压力出现低端价格松动现象。整体来看，麦收结束 | | | | 后尿素需求及出口仍有放量预期，但尿素价格上方限制依旧明显。尿素期货价格同 | | | | 时受商品市场整体情绪波动而波动，但期价上方也仍有明显限制。预计短期尿素期 | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.11%至 9649 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.08%至 78140 | | | | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口窗口持续关闭。宏观方面，美国 5 月 ADP 就业人数增加 3.7 | | 万 | | | | | 人，为自 2023 年 3 月以来的最低水平，远逊预期 11.4 万人和前值 6.2 万人。美国 5 | | | | | | | 月 服务业 PMI 指数 49.9，大幅低于预期 52 和前值 51.6。数据公布后，特朗普继 续喊话美联储敦促其降息，不过美联储褐皮书显示最近几周美国经济活动略有下滑， | ISM | | | | | | 劳动力需求减弱，涨价预期更强，注重关税带来的不确定性和通胀走高预期，因此预 | | | | | | | 计 月降息的概率仍较小。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 2500 至 141350 吨；Comex | 6 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared with March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, which was significantly supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak. The cumulative new RMB loans in April reached 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 in April was 8%. The joint statement issued by China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the three departments held a joint press conference. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy to reduce the cost of the liability side of enterprises. The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized that it would vigorously promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market and support, stabilize and activate the capital market through a quasi - flat fund. The CSRC said it would optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The internal policy drive is the main line for the stock index in 2025. In terms of financial reports, in the first quarter, the decline rate of the full - market revenue growth of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but was still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets and promoting the stable development of the real economy, leading to a stable increase in stock market valuations. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - On the day of the bond futures closing, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The capital market remained loose, with DR007 rising 1BP to 1.56%. In June, it is difficult for the bond market to have a trending market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate following the capital market and economic fundamentals again. After the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the capital market is unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the short term, the expectation of incremental policies in the short term has cooled, and the economic resilience remains. The bond market shows a sideways shock pattern again after adjustment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate. The internal policy drive is the main line in 2025. The measures are conducive to the stable development of the real economy and the stable increase of stock market valuations [1]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate. In June, it is difficult to have a trending market. After adjustment, it shows a sideways shock pattern [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Variety | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH (Stock Index Futures) | 2,673.6 | 2,668.6 | 5.0 | 0.19% | | IF (Stock Index Futures) | 3,842.4 | 3,824.8 | 17.6 | 0.46% | | IC (Stock Index Futures) | 5,688.8 | 5,638.4 | 50.4 | 0.89% | | IM (Stock Index Futures) | 6,054.0 | 5,998.0 | 56.0 | 0.93% | | Shanghai Composite 50 (Stock Index) | 2,690.8 | 2,687.3 | 3.5 | 0.13% | | CSI 300 (Stock Index) | 3,868.7 | 3,852.0 | 16.7 | 0.43% | | CSI 500 (Stock Index) | 5,739.0 | 5,694.8 | 44.2 | 0.78% | | CSI 1000 (Stock Index) | 6,123.2 | 6,070.0 | 53.1 | 0.88% | | TS (Bond Futures) | 102.40 | 102.35 | 0.044 | 0.04% | | TF (Bond Futures) | 106.04 | 105.96 | 0.075 | 0.07% | | T (Bond Futures) | 108.77 | 108.69 | 0.08 | 0.07% | | TL (Bond Futures) | 119.57 | 119.45 | 0.12 | 0.10% | [3] 3.3 Market News - On June 4, local time, the results of the South Korean presidential election were announced. Lee Jae - myung of the Democratic Party was elected president with a vote - share of 49.42% (17.2875 million votes). His term officially began at 6:21 am on June 4, and his inauguration ceremony was held at the National Assembly at 11 am on the same day [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [6][7][10][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24][25].

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约减仓下行，端午假期结束后的首个交易日，期价承压下行， 技术上重回弱势表现。与期货下跌相比，玉米现货维持偏强表现。端午假日期间 期货市场缺少盘面的指引，北港主流收购价格维持稳定，产区深加工主流收购价 | 震荡下跌 | | | 格也暂无明显调整。端午节期间，华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。麦收之 | | | | 前部分贸易商仍然继续出货，东北粮源持续流入，华北市场整体供应尚可，部分 | | | | 企业玉米价格上调 6-20 元/吨。端午节假期，销区市场玉米价格基本稳定。假期 | | | | 期间下游企业采购较少，使用前期订单及库存为主，产区价格暂时稳定，部分销 | | | | 区市场港口贸易商报价小幅上调。技术上，7 月合约是主力合约，今日期价表现 | | | | 受制于 20 日均线的压制，一根长阴线收复此前连续一周的上涨。从技术端和心 | | | | 理上恢复了悲观的预期。这样玉米市场中，现货强、期货弱，基差走强的表现还 | | | | 在继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, up 0.24% to $9,638.5/ton; SHFE copper main contract rose 0.5% to 78,180 yuan/ton. The US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased, easing market concerns about the economy and job market. The Fed may maintain a hawkish stance, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while the domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons to 153,000 tons. With the arrival of the off - season and the end of the phased export rush, downstream and terminal procurement is cautious. The US tariff policy and the 232 investigation may support copper prices. The current copper price is at a directional crossroads, and if it breaks through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it may rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: After the holiday, alumina and Shanghai aluminum both trended stronger. AO2509 closed at 3,036 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and AL2507 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price slightly declined to 3,275 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 110 yuan/ton. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the ore cost provided short - term support. The electrolytic aluminum demand has both off - season pressure and structural resilience. The price is supported by the low - level destocking at the beginning of the month, and the overall operating center may decline slightly with the cost. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,475/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.25% to 121,860 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons. The nickel ore price was stable. In the stainless - steel industry chain, the raw material nickel - iron trading was sluggish, and the cost still provided support. The supply at home and abroad decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased. However, the overall demand was weak. In the new - energy sector, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak. Short - term nickel price may rebound after a rapid decline, but it is still in a volatile state and needs new driving factors to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed from macro, inventory, demand, and policy aspects, pointed out the factors affecting copper prices and the current price trend and resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and suggested paying attention to inventory [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors, and judged the short - term price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, inventory changes in different exchanges, and import and export indicators [3]. - **Lead**: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Showed price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changes [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, covering market prices, nickel - ore prices, and inventory changes [4]. - **Zinc**: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, TC prices, and inventory changes [5]. - **Tin**: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] - **LME Inventory**: Included charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Contained charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel social inventories from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **Smelting Profit**: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46] 3.4 Team Introduction - **Exhibition Dapeng**: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won many industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [49]. - **Wang Heng**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [50].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 65.98 cents per pound, and CF509 dropped 0.08% to 13,260 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 6,780 to 539,100 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan. Internationally, macro - factors, Trump's tariff policy, and weak U.S. economic data limit the upside of U.S. cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton lacks continuous upward drive but also has limited negative factors. With weak demand and expected high - yield new cotton, cotton prices face pressure, but the probability of breaking previous lows is very low. It is expected to trade in a slightly weak range in the short term. Monitor macro and weather conditions [2] - **Sugar**: The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation estimates the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons and the production in the 2025/26 season to reach 35 million tons. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar groups decreased. The expectation of increased supply in India suppresses the futures price, which hit a 4 - and - a - half - year low. With the opening of the import sugar profit window due to the fall in raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are under pressure. A bearish view is maintained. Pay attention to May's production - sales data and future import data [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 5; the main - contract basis was 1,293, down 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [3] - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 spread was 122, up 7; the main - contract basis was 413, up 16. The Nanning spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan [3] Group 4: Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 3, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,062, down 40 from the previous day, with 374 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,445 yuan/ton, Henan 14,568 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,570 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,785 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.1, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.7, up 0.7; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, up 0.2 [4] - **Sugar**: On June 3, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,731, down 289 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of each commodity, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, conducts fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点评 节后首日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 34360 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.65%，持仓减仓 5800 手至 71600 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2140 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7070 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.39%，持仓减仓 8304 手至 20.02 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/ 吨，较节前最后交易日下调 50 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7650 元 /吨，现货升水收至 575 元/吨。西南丰水期电价下调带动复产，西北大厂 将不同于往年减产，下游采购存在较大缩量。预计工业硅延续探底，下方 支撑来自新疆大厂现金成本线，上方压力源于高库存及供给增压压力加 剧，维持防御性沽空思路。6 月多晶硅自律会议将再度召开，除企业自发 减产外，在需求坍塌压力下，行业有望明确扩大限产额度。近月受仓单限 制，单边跌 ...

黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续跌势，再创新低，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2928 元/吨，较上一交 易收盘价格下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅为 1.11%，持仓增加 0.18 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山 地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2860 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3040 元/吨，全 国建材成交量 9.45 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 3.11%至 390.59 万吨，热卷库存增加 0.22% 至 180.37 万吨，建材库存继续下降，热卷库存则有所累积。美国宣布将对进口钢材和铝材加征双倍关税， | 弱势整理 | | | 从现行的 25%翻倍，6 月 4 日起实施。钢材关税政策不断扰动，对市场情绪形成一定影响。而焦煤价格持 | | | | 续下跌，对钢材成本形成一定拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 端午假期后第一个交易日尿素期货价格下挫明显，主力09合约收盘价1761元/吨， | | | | 跌幅0.96%。现货市场多数稳定，河北、安徽等局部地区价格小幅探涨。昨日山东 | | | | 、河南地区市场价格分别稳定在1870元/吨、1850元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水 | | | | 平高位继续提升，昨日行业日产量20.77万吨，日环比增0.27万吨。需求端当前仍较 | | | 尿素 | 为分散，主流农作物产区麦收进行时，对农资采购较为分散。昨日主流地区尿素产 | 震荡 | | | 销率仍有分化，部分地区突破100%及以上，多数地区维持20-70%区间。整体来看 | | | | ，当前尿素市场供需博弈，短期多数地区产销尚能维持平衡。麦收结束后需求及出 | | | | 口仍有放量预期，但价格上方天花板依旧存在。预计尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，日内 | | | | 关注超跌反弹可能，关注需求释放节 、本 库存数据。 | | | | 端午假期后 ...