光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格弱势波动，09 合约收盘价 1722 元/吨，跌幅 0.98%；01 合约收盘 价 1751 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%。现货市场同步偏弱，主流地区现货价格下调 10~50 元/ | | | | 吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1730 元/吨、1740 元/吨，日环比分别跌 | | | | 30 元/吨、40 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波动，行业日产量昨日 19.30 万 | | | 尿素 | 吨，日环比增 0.12 万吨。需求端跟进依旧不足，农业需求淡季，工业需求支撑有限， | 震荡 | | | 尿素企业新单成交略显乏力。昨日主流地区现货产销率分化明显，仅个别地区能达到 | | | | 100%及以上。出口消息扰动仍存，但当前市场情绪回落，难寻利好支撑。预计短期尿 | | | | 素期货价格偏弱震荡运行，关注主力合约移仓换月影响、出口政策相关动态、现货市 | | | | 场成交氛围。 | | | | ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated August 12, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures and related price data [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - The closing price of I05 is 768.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 is 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan; I01 is 789.0 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan [3] 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread of I05 - I09 is -28.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; I09 - I01 is 7.5 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan; I01 - I05 is 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] 2. Basis Data 2.1 Basis Data Table - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Kafen), its price is 879 yuan/ton today, up 6.0 yuan from the previous day, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Other varieties like BRBF, Newman fines also have corresponding price and basis changes [6] 2.2 Basis Policy Changes - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract is I2205. The number of deliverable varieties has increased by 4, including Bengang concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0. The brand premiums of existing varieties have been adjusted, and the quality differences and premiums of substitutes have been modified [11] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread of PB lump - PB fines is 142.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan; PB fines - FMG mixed fines is 70.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan. There are also spreads and changes for other variety combinations [13] 4. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional titles in the iron ore and related industries [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Cotton: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a slightly upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [1] - Sugar: Expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - **Cotton**: Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut and potentially three cuts this year, supporting US cotton prices. Domestically, the 09 contract's position reduction has slowed, and the position and position/warehouse receipt ratio are relatively high. The current low commercial cotton inventory (a decrease of over 600,000 tons in July) provides support for cotton prices. The 01 contract faces the pressure of expected high new - cotton yields and low opening prices, but the 2025/26 domestic cotton supply - demand pattern has no major contradictions, and the current cotton price is at a relatively low level [1] - **Sugar**: Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production has dropped below 150,000 tons, a record low in over 100 years. The spot sugar market has average transactions and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. On the international front, the raw sugar price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to buying support, and with low Brazilian inventories, there is less willingness for prices to hit new lows. In the domestic market, there is a lack of new drivers near the previous lows, so short - term narrow - range fluctuations are expected [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton rose 0.36% to 66.84 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.15% to 13,680 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 14,595 lots to 246,200 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Class 3128B was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [1] - For sugar, Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production was below 150,000 tons. The Guangxi sugar - making group's quote was 5,900 - 5,980 yuan per ton, with only Nanhua raising the price by 10 yuan per ton; the Yunnan sugar - making group's quote was 5,740 - 5,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; the processing sugar factory's mainstream quote was 6,000 - 6,500 yuan per ton, with most prices adjusting by 10 - 150 yuan per ton, up or down [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan, down 40 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,281 yuan, down 257 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 106 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main - contract basis was 397 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - On August 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,172, down 80 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 282 [3] - On August 11, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,089 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On August 11, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.7, down 0.1; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, up 0.3; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the sugar spot prices were 5,960 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and 5,970 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,240, down 305 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented including those showing cotton and sugar's main - contract closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17] 5. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures such as urea and soda - ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market comes from three logics: long - term, the market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards the consumption - promotion area and domestic inflation to rise after the Sino - US relationship eases, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is high, and infrastructure investment on the demand side increases, which benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital market liquidity is relatively abundant, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation under the weak US dollar and improved enterprise deposit and loan data, leading to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. The market is currently divided, and investors can adjust their positions after the policy and market trends become clearer [1] - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, but in the short term, after the "anti - involution" policy expectations have basically ended, and with weak credit data expectations in July, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the A - share market rose with heavy volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.99% with a trading volume of 1.85 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices had different increases. The育儿 subsidy system has been officially implemented nationwide. The market expects the central bank to buy national bonds to raise funds for the central government and introduce more inclusive fiscal support plans. The market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can wait for clearer trends [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 11, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market but may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, IH rose 0.14%, IF rose 0.53%, IC rose 1.15%, and IM rose 1.73% [3] - **Stock Indices**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, the SSE 50 rose 0.03%, the SSE 300 rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 rose 1.08%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.55% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.10%, T fell 0.13%, and TL fell 0.60% [3] Market News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)", clarifying the scope of export goods, cross - border sales of services and intangible assets, and the applicable rules for multiple tax rates and levy rates [4] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts and related stock indices [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [2] - Asphalt: Volatile [2] - Polyester: Volatile [2] - PX: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [4] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefins: Volatile [6] - PVC: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Monday, oil prices stopped falling. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. The market is waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may ease sanctions on Russian oil. However, there is still uncertainty in the market, and oil prices need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell on Monday. Supply is sufficient, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in summer is weakening. The upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Monday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves. The asphalt market in August is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a range [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures rose on Monday. The supply of PTA and EG is recovering, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the spot prices of PTA and EG will fluctuate in the short term [2][4]. - **PX**: The supply and demand of PX continue to recover, and the PXN is slightly strong. PX prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber futures rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, demand expectations are improving, and inventories are stable. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian methanol plants has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly, suppressing near - month prices. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the downward space is limited. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure and fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The检修 season is coming to an end, and supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, demand is expected to increase. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **PVC**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and inventories are expected to decline slowly. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the market's short - selling power may recover. PVC prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: WTI September contract closed up $0.08 to $63.96/barrel, a 0.13% increase; Brent October contract closed up $0.04 to $66.63/barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2509 closed at 494 yuan/barrel, up 1.5 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. OPEC+ July production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia cutting 300,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day. Russia increased production by 70,000 barrels per day but was still below the quota [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 1.39% to 2,760 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.92% to 3,463 yuan/ton. Supply is sufficient, and the spot premium of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a four - month low [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract (BU2509) fell 0.51% to 3,512 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.47% at 4,706 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.68% at 4,414 yuan/ton; the main PX contract (509) closed up 0.77% at 6,778 yuan/ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu have declined [2]. - **PX**: Supply and demand continue to recover, and prices are expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts (RU2601, NR, BR) rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2,382 yuan/ton. Iranian plant load has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 is 7,020 - 7,150 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase [6]. - **PVC**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China has little change. Supply remains high, and demand is gradually picking up [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If no peace agreement is reached, sanctions on Moscow may be tightened [10]. - OPEC+ July crude oil production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day, and non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the historical price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [12][14][16][18][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [57][62][63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the historical production profit charts of various energy and chemical products [66][67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy and chemicals, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [75].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market's recent rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies benefiting upstream cycle sectors, and short - term capital inflows due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit - loan data. Wait for clearer policy and market trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong as the market - driving effect of anti - involution policy expectations since July is over, and the bond market is likely to have a repair market [3]. - Gold is in a window supported by both "rising interest - rate cut expectations" and "geopolitical uncertainties" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. For silver, low - buying and holding is a good strategy [4]. - Most commodities in the steel, coal, and coke sectors are expected to move in a narrow or wide - range oscillation in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy expectations, and cost changes [6][7][9]. - Copper prices may be weak but the expected peak season in September will limit the decline. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by market sentiment and will oscillate. Aluminum - related products' prices face downward pressure due to supply increases, while industrial silicon and polysilicon have different trends and investment opportunities [14][15][19]. - Oil prices are under pressure. High and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Asphalt is supported by low supply and inventory but is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, polyolefins, PVC, urea, soda ash, and glass all have their own supply - demand characteristics and are expected to have different short - term price trends [24][25][27]. - Protein meal prices are rising, and a long - position strategy is recommended. Most oils are strong, and a long - position strategy is also suggested. Livestock and poultry products such as pigs and eggs have complex supply - demand situations and are expected to oscillate. Corn has a short - term rebound but a mid - term weakening trend [39][41][42]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak trend. Cotton's 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the medium - long term [46][49]. 3. Summary by Category Financials - **Stock Index**: A - share market was flat yesterday. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is significant. The stock market's rise is driven by multiple factors. Wait for clearer trends before adjusting positions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rose slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. Gold is supported by multiple factors, and silver can be held through low - buying [4]. Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke - **Rebar**: Futures prices were slightly down. Production increased, inventory rose, and demand improved slightly. Exports remained high. It is expected to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fell. Supply decreased, demand was mixed, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected by inspections, and demand was strong. It is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected，and demand was good. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both futures prices weakened. They are affected by policies, cost, and supply - demand factors and are expected to oscillate widely [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices were slightly down. Affected by macro factors, inventory changes, and weak demand, copper prices may be weak but limited by the peak - season expectation [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices fell slightly. Affected by inventory, price differentials, and supply - demand, they are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Aluminum - related Products**: Prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy were weak. Supply is expected to increase, and prices face downward pressure [16][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was strong, and polysilicon was weak. There are different investment opportunities [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices rose. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is changing. The market focuses on production uncertainties [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell for six consecutive days. Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand, oil prices are under pressure [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply may decrease, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Rubber**: Futures prices rose. Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX, PTA, MEG**: Prices of related products rose slightly. Affected by cost and demand, PTA may be under pressure, and MEG may adjust weakly [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate as inventory is expected to increase slightly in August with limited import and stable demand [31]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will recover in August, and the upside is limited without significant cost increases [32]. - **PVC**: Market pressure eases, inventory decreases slowly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [33][34]. - **Urea**: Futures prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the Indian tender can relieve some pressure. It is expected to oscillate widely and weakly [35]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely with a weak sentiment [36]. - **Glass**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate widely [37]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Prices rose. U.S. soybeans had strong sales, and domestic prices were boosted by external and cost factors. A long - position strategy is recommended [39]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. A long - position strategy is suggested [40][41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and policy factors. Egg prices have a complex situation with a possible seasonal rebound but a short - term bearish sentiment [42][43]. - **Corn**: Futures prices rebounded technically, but the mid - term is expected to be weak [44]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: Prices are expected to continue to be weak due to production increase expectations and domestic price adjustments [46]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton fell. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [47][49].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "oscillation", and for sugar is "oscillation with a downward bias" [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.72% to 66.36 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.15% to 13,670 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 9,339 lots to 272,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,089 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 15,191 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with rising expectations of a September interest rate cut and more than 2 cuts this year, and U.S. cotton prices are in low - level oscillation. Domestically, as the 09 contract approaches expiration, the main contract's open interest is decreasing, and the warehouse receipt cancellation speed has slightly increased. After macro - pricing, the market will focus on new cotton. New cotton is expected to have a good harvest with a low opening price, putting pressure on the 01 contract. However, the new - year cotton consumption is expected to be stable, and the inventory - to - sales ratio won't be high. Overall, sentiment is positive, and prices are supported by low spot inventory before new cotton is on the market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term and be stronger in the medium - to - long - term [2] - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses in July, a 4.98% decrease from last year. Spot prices in China are falling. Raw sugar is weak with no new drivers, and the expected increase in production suppresses futures prices. In China, spot prices continue to decline, and processed sugar will put pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain weak [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 165, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,521, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,089, up 6, and the national spot price is 15,191, up 13 [3] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 67, up 5; the main contract basis is 323, down 4. The Nanning spot price is 5,970, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,990, down 20 [3] Group 4: Market Information - On August 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,329, down 135 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts [4] - On August 7, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,089 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] - On August 7, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8 (up 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7 (down 0.1) [4] - On August 7, the sugar spot prices were 5,970 yuan/ton in Nanning (down 30) and 5,990 yuan/ton in Liuzhou (down 20) [4] - On August 7, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,615, down 187 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton; as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures [22] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 5.36% to 72,300 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 65,490 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,420 tons to 16,443 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, with a large increase in lithium extraction from lithium mica, followed by lithium extraction from spodumene and salt lakes. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. On the inventory side, the social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with inventory reduction in the upstream and other links and inventory replenishment in the downstream [3]. - After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipt inventory, there is a certain reflux, but the current total remains at a low level. The short - term market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiaxiaowo will stop production [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 70,000 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,750 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,550 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 71,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 69,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 65,490 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 70,610 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 60,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8.05 US dollars/kg, down 0.1 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 52,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [5]. - **Spreads**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,100 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,610 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 8,057.28 yuan/ton, down 766 yuan [5]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate all showed varying degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as manganese acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells & Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Spreads**: There are charts showing the price difference trends of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Production Costs**: There are charts showing the profit trends of lithium carbonate production from various raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [38][39].

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range. The production has increased significantly, inventory growth has expanded, and apparent demand has recovered, but high steel exports have eased domestic supply pressure [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short term. Supply has decreased, demand has slightly changed, and the market is concerned about military parade - related production restrictions [1]. - Both coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. For coking coal, supply - side inspections have affected market sentiment, and demand is strong. For coke, raw material prices are rising, and demand from steel mills and traders is good [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. For manganese silicon, market news has affected sentiment, and demand from steel procurement provides some support. For ferrosilicon, cost provides support, and the marginal change in supply and demand is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.09%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,400 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable to lower, and trading volume declined. This week, national rebar production increased by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons year - on - year, social inventory increased by 43,400 tons to 3.8848 million tons, factory inventory increased by 60,500 tons to 1.682 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with 200,000 lots traded and a decrease of 23,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices mostly declined. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments fell from a high, and global iron ore shipments decreased. The iron - making water output decreased by 3,900 tons to 2.4032 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 452,600 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1229.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.7%), with an increase of 45,809 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Shanxi's coal mine over - production inspections affected market sentiment, and coking enterprises' demand was strong [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1744 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton (0.66%), with an increase of 1,609 lots in positions. Spot prices at ports increased. Coking coal supply was favorable, and coke production and demand were both good [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 6064 yuan/ton, a 0.75% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,857 lots to 237,700 lots. Market prices in various regions were between 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton. Recent market news affected sentiment, and steel procurement provided some support [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 5834 yuan/ton, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 21,298 lots to 124,500 lots. Market prices in various regions were around 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Cost provided support, supply increased, and demand also showed some positive changes [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread was - 26.0, up 2.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, down 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 56.0, down 5.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3360.0, down 10.0; Beijing's was 3300.0, down 10.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties and regions [4]. - **Profit and Other Spreads**: Rebar's disk profit was 45.8, down 12.0; long - process profit was 145.6, down 4.6; short - process profit was 79.6, unchanged. Other spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. were also provided [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][20][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][43][45][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52]. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has many honors and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has many titles and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data and has relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [55].