工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点评 21 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 35860 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.93%，持 仓增仓 2952 手至 73488 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 640 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7865 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.75%，持仓 增仓 19275 手至 19.28 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9310 元/吨，较上一 交易日下调 102 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8100 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 205 元/吨。新疆大厂增产引发市场悲观预期，需求缺乏反转驱动叠 加期货持续增仓下压，可延续防御性空头策为主。多晶硅存在近端交割短 缺和需求急速流失的结构性矛盾。挤仓压力结束后基本面转弱逻辑再度回 归，主力对标交割基准价，短期大涨无力，可反弹布空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/5/20 | 20 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价1855元/吨，微幅上涨0.22%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场局部继续弱势下调，价格下调的区域降幅多在10~20元/吨，其余地区价格基本 | | | | 维稳。目前山东临沂地区市场价格1880元/吨，河南地区市场价格1890元/吨，二者 | | | | 日环比均下降10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应高位波动，日产量昨日小幅提升0.3 | | | | 万吨至20.48万吨。需求端稳步跟进，中下游在低价环境中存在逢低采购情况，现货 | | | | 产销率昨日多数回升至100%附近，个别地区仍有分化。后期北方麦收结束后农业用 | | | | 肥仍有跟进预期，等待需求验证的同时关注干旱天气对作物播种及施肥的影响。出 | | | | 口细节持续公布，后续或仍将对市场产生情绪扰动。整体来看，尿素现货价格上方 | | | | 天花板限制明显，短期市场若无新增驱动，期货盘面将延续宽幅震荡趋势。关注 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.11%，报收 66.05 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.22%，报收 13440 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1339 手至 57.44 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14487 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 22 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14567 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日增加 17 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数跌破 | | | | 100 整数关口，但美棉价格与之呈现共振下行走势，基本面的驱动相对有限，关注 | | | | 后续宏观及天气变化。国内市场方面，郑棉期价在新的区间震荡，短期破局动力稍 | | | | 显偏弱。首先关注宏观层面扰动，若宏观层面持续无超预期变化，市场关注重心将 | | | | 逐渐向新棉转移，目前看新棉种植面积同比增加，本年度预计仍然丰产，供应端压 | | | | 力仍存。综合来看，短期郑棉上下行驱 ...

一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走弱，下跌 0.71%至 9481 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.41%至 77770 | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美债拍卖情况不佳，再次引起市场警 | | | 觉，美股债汇同时下跌，风险偏好受到抑制，欧央行警告美国资产遭到投资者前所未 | | | 有的质疑，全球金融系统面临连锁风险。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1925 吨至 | | 铜 | 168825 吨；comex 铜库存增加 1271 吨至 156965 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 4520 吨至 | | | 41218 吨；BC 铜仓单维持 2737 吨。需求方面，高铜价高升水制约下游采购节奏。昨 | | | 晚美元大幅回落，但市场偏好抑制下，也未能进一步推动铜价。另外，市场关注国内 | | | 某仓位大量持有铜多头情况，市场或担心挤仓风险，且铜结构也不利于空头布局，从 | | | SHFE 仓单来看依然维系大量流出情形，表明部分投资者仍在做正套扩大交易，这也 | | | 有利于维护当前铜价，暂时仍以震荡偏强看待。 | | ...

Index Trends - On May 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% to close at 3387.57 points with a trading volume of 465.957 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to close at 10294.22 points with a trading volume of 707.488 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.23% with a trading volume of 234.419 billion yuan, opening at 6137.1, closing at 6132.18, with a daily high of 6141.73 and a low of 6109.92 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.18% with a trading volume of 155.147 billion yuan, opening at 5741.69, closing at 5757.92, with a daily high of 5763.08 and a low of 5733.83 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 59.788 billion yuan, opening at 2716.84, closing at 2728.43, with a daily high of 2740.77 and a low of 2716.84 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 13.84 points from the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and utilities pulled the index up, while media, computer, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 10.55 points from the previous close. Sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and non - ferrous metals pulled the index up, while communication, machinery, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 18.21 points from the previous close. Sectors such as power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and banks pulled the index up, while the electronics sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 11.8 points from the previous close. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and coal pulled the index up, while the electronics sector pulled it down [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 133.48, IM01 of - 223.85, IM02 of - 375.94, and IM03 of - 545.18 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 100.87, IC01 of - 177.63, IC02 of - 299.38, and IC03 of - 432.85 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 35.53, IF01 of - 76.46, IF02 of - 108.45, and IF03 of - 151.56 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 17.38, IH01 of - 48.12, IH02 of - 54.74, and IH03 of - 58.39 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791, etc. [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318, etc. [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098, etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc. [25].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 周三，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2507 收涨 1.29%，报 3074 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2507 收涨 0.25%，报 3571 元/吨。据 | | | | 国家海关数据统计，2025 年 4 月我国共进口燃料油 182.74 万吨， | | | | 环比增加 32.17%，同比减少 50.87%；出口燃料油 177.25 万吨，环 | | | | 比增加 1.07%，同比增加 1.56%。5 月低硫套利船货到港量减少， | | | | 由于东西套利窗口持续关闭，6 月之前低硫燃料油市场供应或维 | | | 燃料油 | 持紧张，同时低硫燃料油需求端也表现尚可。高硫方面，随着夏 | 震荡 | | | 季发电需求提升，叠加下游船加油市场表现偏强，库存开始逐步 | | | | 消化。上周受到宏观和地缘等消息的影响，成本端原油波动较大， | | | | 预计短期 FU 和 LU 绝对价格波动率也将走高，当前 LU-FU 价 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - April economic data declined compared to March but remained resilient under the tariff war. Social retail sales were up 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 up 8% year-on-year. The China-US joint statement and subsequent policies are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - The internal policy push is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded by about 4%. However, ROE is still at the bottoming stage. These measures will help companies repair their balance sheets and lift the stock market valuation [1]. - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts up 0.03%, the 5-year down 0.04%, and the 2-year down 0.03%. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and other factors have changed the bond market environment, and the short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: April economic data was resilient, and policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the entry of long-term funds into the market, are expected to support the stock market. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the stock market valuation is expected to rise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures had mixed performance, and the bond market environment has changed due to policy and economic factors. The short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: All major contracts of stock index futures declined, with IM down 1.56%, IC down 1.31%, IF down 0.89%, and IH down 0.53% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: All major stock indexes declined, with the CSI 1000 down 1.68%, the CSI 500 down 1.45%, the SSE 50 down 0.49%, and the SSE 300 down 0.91% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year and 10-year contracts rose, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell. The 30-year contract was up 0.15%, and the 10-year contract was up 0.02% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds showed different trends [3]. 3.3 Market News - In May, the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts and their basis [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of various currency exchange rates, including the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB and other currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 1 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 p 2 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 854 | 855 | -1.0 | 809 | 84 | 88 | -4 | | BRBF | 780 | 778 | 2.0 | 804 | 79 | 79 | -0 | | 纽曼粉 | 756 | 754 | 2.0 | 791 | 66 | 67 | -0 | | PB 粉 | 764 | 762 | 2.0 | 810 | 85 | 86 | -0 | | 麦克粉 | 744 | 742 | 2.0 | 802 | 77 | 78 | -0 | | 罗伊山粉 | 734 | 732 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

| | 影响。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，生猪期价近强远弱，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期 | | | | 价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方面， | | | | 生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南生猪市场 | | | | 出栏均价为 14.86 元/公斤，较上周五降 0.07 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良 | | | 生猪 | 种猪主流出栏价格 14.90-15.15 元/公斤，低价 14.70 元/公斤；中小场 115-140 | 震荡 | | | 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右，高价 14.60 元/公斤；170-175 公斤肥 | | | | 猪出栏价格 14.80 元/公斤左右。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收 | | | | 购价格 14.40-14.60 元/公斤，均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水 | | | | 现货，饲料成本预期下降，对猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪 | | | | ...