Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the rubber main - producing areas enter the peak production season, and abnormal weather can intensify rubber price fluctuations. The import volume growth of rubber is limited due to slightly lower dry content and weather disturbances. [106] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period provides some demand support. After the parade, the tire manufacturers in Shandong may see a rebound in production, but high finished - product inventories limit the recovery elasticity. Tire exports may have a small increase at the end of the third quarter, but semi - steel tire exports may slow down. [106] - The social inventory of natural rubber is neutral, with the difference between dark and light - colored rubber inventories expanding. [106] - Overall, supply may be affected by unexpected weather, demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and inventory is neutral. Rubber prices are expected to have a bottom - support and high price elasticity. [106] - For butadiene rubber, the supply pressure eases, there are many maintenance plans in September - October, and demand has positive support. Short - term butadiene rubber prices are expected to remain strong. [106] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - Futures prices of rubber main contracts showed increases. For example, on August 28, 2025, the RU main contract price was 15,945 yuan/ton, up 1,385 yuan from July 31, 2025. [5] - The basis of rubber main contracts changed. The RU main contract basis was - 945 yuan/ton on August 28, 2025, down 935 yuan from July 31, 2025. [7] - The spread between RU index and NR index gradually widened. On August 28, 2025, the spread was 3,017 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 379 yuan. [12] - The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber was at a high level, enhancing the substitution of synthetic rubber. [18] 3.2 Supply - In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons. [25] - In China, natural rubber imports decreased year - on - year, while mixed rubber imports continued to rise year - on - year. [42] - The supply pressure of butadiene decreased in September. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly, and there were many new butadiene device projects in 2025 - 2028. [43][48] - Butadiene rubber production was at a high level, and there were maintenance plans for butadiene rubber devices in September - October. [49][53] 3.3 Demand - In 2025, global natural rubber consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. In China, tire exports increased in July 2025, and automobile production and sales continued to grow. [60][67] - The average operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased slightly in August. The inventory turnover days of all - steel tires decreased slightly, while those of semi - steel tires increased slightly. [61][65] 3.4 Inventory - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased compared with July 27, 2025. [74] - As of August 29, 2025, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber were 178,640 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber were 45,662 tons. [78] - As of August 24, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.27 million tons, including 797,000 tons of dark - colored rubber and 473,000 tons of light - colored rubber. [82] - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons. [85] 3.5 Position - The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations. The total positions of NR and BR changed, with the NR position increasing and the BR position increasing significantly from July 31 to August 28, 2025. [87][89] 3.6 Other (Options) - The report presented the historical volatility and historical volatility cone of natural rubber and butadiene rubber options, as well as the put - call ratios of option trading volume and position. [92][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has seen the resumption of some maintenance and load - reducing devices, and the downstream yarn mills' load has increased month - on - month with continuous improvement in demand. The cost side is expected to fluctuate as the TA device autumn inspections increase under low processing fees and the EG port inventory is at a low level with tight spot liquidity. The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to follow the cost side fluctuations, and the improved demand supports the price to be relatively strong. The implementation of peak - season demand should be monitored in the future [71]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - From July 31 to August 28, 2025, the PF main contract closing price increased from 6464 yuan/ton to 6526 yuan/ton, a change of 62 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 1.0%. The 14D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6650 yuan/ton to 6655 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 0.1%. The basis decreased from 186 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, a change of - 57 yuan/ton with a decline rate of 30.6% [4]. - For the price spreads, from July 31 to August 28, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 40 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a change of - 28 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 70.0%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from 98 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, a change of 66 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 67.3%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from - 58 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 65.5% [9]. 3.2 Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - end: Pay Attention to Device Restoration - **PTA**: In July 2025, PTA production was 6.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 tons (4.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons (2.1%). As of August 29, the PTA operating load was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points. Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Sanfangxiang's 1.2 million - ton device was shut down, and the second line of its 3.2 million - ton new device was put into production. In July 2025, China's PTA exports were 374,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 119,100 tons (46.66%), and the cumulative export volume from January to July was 2.2311 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 403,700 tons (15.32%) [15][17][18]. - **MEG**: In July 2025, ethylene - based ethylene glycol production was 991,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Syngas - based ethylene glycol production was 674,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. The domestic ethylene glycol production was 1.665 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) - based ethylene glycol was 77.74% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%). In July 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were about 591,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,700 tons due to a significant reduction in US imports. On August 25, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 500,000 tons [22][24]. 3.3 Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - end: Golden September and Silver October - As of August 29, the polyester staple fiber operating load was 92.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. Xiamen Xinhongxiang's 100,000 - ton device restarted in late August. As of August 29, the polyester staple fiber inventory was 13.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 days [25][29][34]. 3.4 Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - end: Order Improvement - As of August 29, the polyester yarn operating rate was 63.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate was 65%, a month - on - month increase of 6 percentage points. In July 2025, China's yarn production was 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Among them, Xinjiang's yarn production reached 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. The cumulative yarn production in the first seven months of 2025 was 13.426 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [39][40]. - In July 2025, the export of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) was 128,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons (8.94%), with an export average price of 919.35 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 937,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons (29.42%) [50]. 3.5 Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Expected to Shrink - In July 2025, due to the weakening of the "rush - to - export" effect and the obstruction of re - export trade, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. The textile and clothing export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. Among them, textile exports were 11.6 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%; clothing exports were 15.16 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative export from January to July was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, with the growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the first half of the year and lagging behind the national goods trade level [55]. - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods from January to July was 7.079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Among them, the sales of food, clothing, and daily - use products increased by 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8% respectively [58]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - **Futures Positioning**: On August 28, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 23,246 lots, 157 lots, and 2,483 lots respectively. Compared with July 31, 2025, the month - on - month changes were 10,892 lots, 88 lots, and - 80,719 lots respectively. Compared with August 28, 2024, the year - on - year changes were 13,666 lots, 59 lots, and 111 lots respectively [63]. - **Options**: The report provides charts of historical volatility and historical volatility cones of PF, as well as charts of the closing price of polyester staple fiber and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest [64][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The liquidity-driven market is not over yet. It may shift from a broad-based rally to a focus on specific themes. The index still has room to rise as the conditions for ending the liquidity-driven market are not yet mature [3]. - When making long positions, strategy is crucial. Fundamental growth themes are likely to be short-term hotspots. One can go long on A500 and hedge with CSI 300 index futures. The ChiNext Index can also be a long target with beta adjustment and hedging using index futures, while the STAR 50 may experience increased short-term volatility due to high weight concentration [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Conditions in August - **Liquidity Drives Index Up**: In August, the liquidity-driven market pushed the Wind All A index up by 10.93%. Last week, it rose 1.9% with an average daily trading volume of 2.98 trillion yuan. Small-cap growth stocks were strong, and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices led the gains. The CSI 1000 rose 11.67%, the CSI 500 rose 13.13%, the CSI 300 rose 10.33%, and the SSE 50 rose 7.22% [3][6]. - **Index Valuation**: The index valuations are above the one - standard - deviation level of the past five years, and the equity risk premium has significantly decreased [3]. - **Sector Impact**: The electronics sector drove the index up in August [13]. - **Fund Flows**: In August, 45 billion yuan of new equity funds and 14 billion yuan of hybrid funds were established, with more incremental funds to come. The margin trading balance increased by 256.4 billion yuan to 2.22 trillion yuan [28]. 2. Analysis of Liquidity - Driven Market - **Historical Comparison**: In the ROE downward cycle, there were significant index rallies in the second half of 2014 and early 2019. The current rally combines factors from both periods, and the conditions for ending the liquidity - driven market are not yet met [3]. - **Style Preference**: Growth styles and small - cap stocks perform better in the liquidity - driven market [32]. - **Sino - US Capital Market Linkage**: There are different ways of linkage between Chinese and US capital markets, including economic correlation, capital correlation, negative correlation, risk re - balancing, and independence [36]. - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: Foreign capital inflows tend to favor large - cap growth styles [38]. 3. Index Financial Indicators - The report presents the main financial indicators of various indices in the first quarter of 2025, including profitability, growth, and risk indicators [44]. 4. Index Futures Performance - **CSI 1000**: The index rose 11.67% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged [45]. - **CSI 500**: The index rose 13.13% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged downward [48]. - **CSI 300**: The index rose 10.33% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged downward [51]. - **SSE 50**: The index rose 7.22% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged [53]. 5. Index Option Indicators - The report provides historical volatility, volatility cones, and PCR indicators for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 options [58][64][72]. 6. Trading Slippage - The report shows the trading slippage for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts [80][83][86][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.33% to 78,140 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,600 yuan/ton to 80,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,600 yuan/ton to 77,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 50 yuan/ton to 76,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,480 tons to 28,967 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, with the weekly output decreasing by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Mica - derived lithium production decreased significantly, followed by salt - lake - derived lithium, while spodumene - derived lithium production increased slightly, and recycled lithium production remained basically stable. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is a traditional peak season, downstream production schedules may remain prosperous, and with the decrease in the customer - supplied ratio, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to stock up. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains at 141,000 tons, but it has shown a continuous slight destocking trend in recent weeks, with upstream destocking and downstream and other sectors restocking [3]. - A mine in Jiangxi renewed its safety license, and the price corrected significantly yesterday. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to whether there is new information on the supply side and the September 30th node [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 78,140 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 78,140 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 889 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,205 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,915 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,425 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,500 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan [5]. - For lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 77,700 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan. For lithium hydroxide, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 81,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 71,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.05 US dollars/kg, up 0.2 US dollars [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 56,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 3,020 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 12,667.99 yuan/ton, up 1,431 yuan [5]. - Among the precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 77,500 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) was 76,850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 72,750 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 91,075 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 117,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) remained unchanged at 145,900 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,205 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 33,805 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 30,960 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power - type) was 35,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity - type) was 32,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 227,400 yuan/ton [5]. - In the cell and battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.385 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.33 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.325 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power - type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.301 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts show the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14] - **Price Differences**: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts illustrate the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts show the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33] - **Inventory**: Charts present the weekly inventory of downstream, smelters, and other sectors of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [37][39] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1753 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase. Spot prices mostly rebounded slightly. Urea supply decreased significantly, with the daily output dropping to 18.40 thousand tons, a 0.49 thousand - ton decrease from the previous day. Demand improved but showed regional differences, with the sales - to - production ratio at around 20%. The market sentiment may fluctuate due to factors like exports and the Indian tender. The outlook is for a firm oscillation [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range fluctuation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1311 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decrease. Spot prices were basically stable. This week, the production of multiple large soda ash plants decreased by 6.78%, and enterprise inventories decreased by 2.27%. Demand was average, with some improvement in low - price spot transactions. The supply pressure eased slightly, but there were no new positive factors. The short - term outlook is for oscillation, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern is not optimistic [2]. - Glass futures prices had a narrow - range fluctuation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1174 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. Spot prices were stable. Some glass factories intended to raise prices, but the implementation needed to be tracked. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.96 thousand tons, and there was an expectation of increased supply. Demand was cautious, with mid - and downstream buyers purchasing at low prices. The supply - demand contradiction was still not optimistic in the short term, and the short - term outlook is for low - level consolidation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 28, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6473, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 466 [5]. - On August 28, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.40 thousand tons, a 0.49 thousand - ton decrease from the previous day and a 1.18 thousand - ton increase from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 78.65%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [5]. - On August 28, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased in most areas. For example, in Shandong, it was 1710 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 1720 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 27, the inventory of urea enterprises was 108.58 thousand tons, a 6.19 thousand - ton (6.05%) increase from the previous week [6]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 28, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6180, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1688. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2341, an increase of 242 from the previous day [8]. - On August 28, soda ash spot prices varied by region. For example, in North China, the light - alkali price was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy - alkali price was 1350 yuan/ton [8]. - As of the week of August 28, the production of soda ash was 71.90 thousand tons, a 5.23 thousand - ton (6.78%) decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 82.47%, a 6.01 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of August 28, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 186.75 thousand tons, a 2.06 thousand - ton (1.09%) decrease from Monday and a 4.33 thousand - ton (2.27%) decrease from the previous Thursday [8]. - On August 28, the average price of the float glass market was 1151 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.96 thousand tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - As of August 28, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.04 million weight - box (1.63%) decrease from the previous week and an 11.31% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous week [9]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][13][25]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [27]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures products such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [27]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of products such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market's main contradiction is high supply, weak - stable demand, and continuous inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. The short - term rebar futures may trade in a narrow range. [1] - The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. [1] - The coking coal and coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, affected by factors such as safety inspections, environmental restrictions, and demand changes. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited significant drivers. [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. National rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand changed, with supply - demand data looking weak. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 2%. Port spot prices were strong. Supply and demand factors were mixed, with a slight drop in global shipments and a decline in iron - water production. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.82%. Spot prices showed a mixed trend. Supply was restricted by safety inspections, and demand faced short - term pressure. [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Port spot prices fell. Supply was constrained by regional restrictions, and demand from steel mills slowed. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened slightly, closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Production costs were stable, and supply - demand was relatively balanced. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, closing at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. Spot prices in some regions dropped. Production was slightly down, and demand was still low. [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with their latest values and changes. [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities was presented, including their latest values and changes. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][9][10][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts displayed the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods. [16][17][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads of inter - period contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities. [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - commodity contracts (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities. [40][41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts depicted the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025. [45][46][49] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated August 29, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and spread analysis [1] 1. Futures Contracts - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 at 811.0 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan; I01 at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread of I05 - I09 was -45.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; I09 - I01 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 25.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed price and basis changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 12.0 yuan to 891 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2 to 59 yuan/ton [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - **Charts Presented**: There are charts for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores, showing their basis trends [8][9] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - **Spread Changes**: For instance, the spread of PB lump - PB fines was 144.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines was 63.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [13] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - **Charts for Different Spreads**: There are charts for block - powder spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc., presenting the spread trends [14][15] 3.3 More Variety Spread Charts - **Additional Spread Charts**: Include charts for FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines spread, Carajás fines + Super Special fines - 2 * PB fines spread, etc. [20][21] 4. Exchange Rule Adjustments - **Adjustments to Deliverable Brands**: Added 4 deliverable brands (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) with brand premium of 0 since I2202 contract; adjusted brand premiums of existing varieties; modified substitute quality differences and quality premiums [11] - **Applicable Contracts**: The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to I2312 and subsequent contracts [12] 5. Research Team - **Team Members**: The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [24]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.9% to 67.28 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 fell 0.18% to 14,070 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1,889 lots to 510,700 lots. In the international market, attention should be paid to macro and weather changes, and the time for India to import cotton duty - free has been extended to December. In the US, the dollar index was weakly volatile, and the center of the US cotton futures price moved up. Domestically, the position of Zhengzhou cotton increased by nearly 60,000 lots last night. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. As time passes, the market focus will shift to new cotton, with limited supply - demand contradictions and a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. After the new cotton is launched, there is a pressure of high - yield and support from the downstream "scrambling for purchase" expectation. It is expected that the short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price will mainly run in a firm and volatile manner [2]. - Sugar: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 72 from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 194,800 tons to 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 6.67%. Domestic spot prices continued to decline slightly, and the position of the futures main contract decreased for three consecutive trading days. The raw sugar futures price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is believed that the domestic futures price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should wait patiently for trading opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged from the previous day; the main basis was 1,266, down 1 from the previous day; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; the national spot price was 15,336 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 spread was 38, up 6 from the previous day; the main basis was 373, up 8 from the previous day; the Nanning spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On August 28, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,720, down 139 from the previous day, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,240 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,351 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,358 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,458 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.7, down 0.2 from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On August 28, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,539, down 367 from the previous day, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of the main contracts, etc., but no specific analysis of the charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda ash glass, cotton, and other fields respectively, and have rich research experience and many honors [20][21][22].