Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - September 25, 2025 [3] Data Sources - Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [5] Key Points by Commodity Category Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: Spot price 5742, futures price 5758, basis 16, basis rate 0.28%, historical quantile 59.50% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price 5916, futures price 6000, basis 84, basis rate 1.42%, historical quantile 41.30% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price 3280, futures price 3164, basis 116, basis rate 3.67%, historical quantile 54.20% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price 3400, futures price 3357, basis 43, basis rate 1.28%, historical quantile 36.80% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price 850, futures price 804, basis 47, basis rate 5.82%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price 1603, futures price 1730, basis -127, basis rate -7.37%, historical quantile 4.57% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price 1185, futures price 1225, basis -40, basis rate -3.23%, historical quantile 17.20% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price 80045, futures price 79960, basis 85, basis rate 0.11%, historical quantile 54.16% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price 20680, futures price 20705, basis -25, basis rate -0.12%, historical quantile 48.75% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price 3008, futures price 2907, basis 101, basis rate 3.49%, historical quantile 56.38% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price 21750, futures price 21860, basis -110, basis rate -0.90%, historical quantile 29.37% [1] - **Tin (SN2510)**: Spot price 271400, futures price 271650, basis -250, basis rate -0.09%, historical quantile 40.20% [1] - **Nickel (NI251)**: Spot price 121600, futures price 121450, basis 150, basis rate 0.12%, historical quantile 65.20% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Spot price 13270, futures price 12895, basis 375, basis rate 2.91%, historical quantile 75.53% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price 73850, futures price 72880, basis 970, basis rate 1.3%, historical quantile 68.72% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price 9500, futures price 9020, basis 480, basis rate 5.32%, historical quantile 34.75% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price 839.9, futures price 846.5, basis -6.6, basis rate -0.78%, historical quantile 0.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price 10243.0, futures price 10317.0, basis -74.0, basis rate -0.12%, historical quantile 0.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price 2870, futures price 2930.0, basis -60.0, basis rate -2.05%, historical quantile 27.80% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price 8230, futures price 8100.0, basis 130.0, basis rate 1.60%, historical quantile 24.30% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price 9030, futures price 9126.0, basis -96.0, basis rate -1.05%, historical quantile 4.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price 2490, futures price 2395.0, basis 95.0, basis rate 3.97%, historical quantile 63.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price 10120, futures price 9921.0, basis 199.0, basis rate 2.01%, historical quantile 69.60% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price 2300, futures price 2164.0, basis 136.0, basis rate 6.28%, historical quantile 94.90% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price 2600, futures price 2469.0, basis 131.0, basis rate 5.31%, historical quantile 66.00% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: Spot price 12650, futures price 12730.0, basis -80.0, basis rate -0.63%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price 3530, futures price 3056.0, basis 474.0, basis rate 15.51%, historical quantile 66.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price 15024, futures price 13555.0, basis 1469.0, basis rate 10.84%, historical quantile 93.20% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price 5890, futures price 5497.0, basis 393.0, basis rate 7.15%, historical quantile 70.40% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price 8600, futures price 8336.0, basis 264.0, basis rate 3.17%, historical quantile 31.10% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price 9500, futures price 10785.0, basis -1285.0, basis rate -11.91%, historical quantile 37.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Spot price 6652.2, futures price 6602.0, basis 50.2, basis rate 0.76%, historical quantile 37.90% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price 4560.0, futures price 4626.0, basis -66.0, basis rate -1.43%, historical quantile 28.60% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price 4305.0, futures price 4234.0, basis 71.0, basis rate 1.68%, historical quantile 83.80% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price 6415.0, futures price 6296.0, basis 119.0, basis rate 1.89%, historical quantile 72.70% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price 6925.0, futures price 6928.0, basis -3.0, basis rate -0.04%, historical quantile 25.20% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price 2255.0, futures price 2351.0, basis -96.0, basis rate -4.08%, historical quantile 14.60% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price 1610.0, futures price 1673.0, basis -63.0, basis rate -3.77%, historical quantile 2.60% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price 7150.0, futures price 7142.0, basis 8.0, basis rate 0.11%, historical quantile 24.00% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price 6775.0, futures price 6877.0, basis -102.0, basis rate -1.48%, historical quantile 5.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price 4740.0, futures price 4919.0, basis -179.0, basis rate -3.64%, historical quantile 32.00% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price 2500.0, futures price 2548.0, basis -48.0, basis rate -1.88%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price 4498.0, futures price 4245.0, basis 253.0, basis rate 5.96%, historical quantile 47.00% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price 3500.0, futures price 3392.0, basis 108.0, basis rate 3.18%, historical quantile 73.20% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price 11700.0, futures price 11520.0, basis 180.0, basis rate 1.56%, historical quantile 47.70% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price 1068.0, futures price 1237.0, basis -169.0, basis rate -15.82%, historical quantile 8.57% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price 1217.0, futures price 1307.0, basis -90.0, basis rate -7.40%, historical quantile 10.04% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price 14800.0, futures price 15620.0, basis -820.0, basis rate -5.54%, historical quantile 44.90% [1] Financial Futures - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price 4519.8, futures price 4483.8, basis -36.0, basis rate -0.80%, historical quantile 9.10% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price 2919.5, futures price 2925.0, basis 5.5, basis rate 0.19%, historical quantile 85.80% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price 7323.7, futures price 7157.0, basis -166.7, basis rate -2.33%, historical quantile 0.10% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price 7534.2, futures price 7303.2, basis -231.0, basis rate -3.16%, historical quantile 1.20% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price 99.91, futures price 102.32, basis -0.01, basis rate -0.01%, historical quantile 24.80% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price 99.22, futures price 105.54, basis -0.04, basis rate -0.04%, historical quantile 21.20% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price 99.76, futures price 107.62, basis 0.06, basis rate 0.05%, historical quantile 22.10% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price 129.13, futures price 113.99, basis 0.65, basis rate 0.57%, historical quantile 88.10% [1]

Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Rubber Industry**: Supply is affected by rainy seasons and typhoons, and future supply expectations suppress raw material prices. Downstream tire factories' pre - holiday restocking is mostly completed, and inventory reduction has slowed. Demand is lackluster with sub - optimal sales performance. The 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas [1]. - **Log Industry**: Logs are in an oscillatory pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - **Glass and Soda Ash Industry**: Soda ash has a fundamental oversupply problem, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches. In the medium - term, demand will continue the previous rigid pattern. It is recommended to hold short positions. Glass prices were driven up by rumors, and the spot market is expected to improve in the short - term, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas is high, and the long - term outlook depends on capacity clearance [4]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: The supply - side regulation is ineffective, and the industry has over - capacity. Downstream component inventory is high, and prices are unstable. Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices will oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon Industry**: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the balance turns loose. The price is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [6]. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, while India's and China's decreased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and exports decreased by 5.46% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 3.07% [1]. Log Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 25, the 2511 log contract closed at 803 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [3]. - **Cost and Import**: The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 19, the total national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters. The daily log shipment volume decreased by 3100 cubic meters as of September 12. This week, the number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 4, and the arrival volume increased by 126,000 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, the prices in North China, Central China, and South China increased slightly, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 3.35% and 2.52% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in all regions remained unchanged, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 2.42% and 1.84% respectively [4]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and glass melting volume decreased slightly. Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory decreased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.28%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 53.14% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price increased by 2.23%, and the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, and monthly production increased by 23.31%. Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and monthly production increased by 6.24% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis of some types decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between some contracts changed slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Monthly national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, and the export volume increased by 3.56%. The production of related industries such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions. They also show the spot prices and freight rates in related industries, aiming to help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different futures and related products. 3. Summary by Category **Stock Index Futures** - **Price Differences**: For different stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, the current values, changes compared to the previous day, and historical percentile data of price differences (including term - current price differences and inter - term price differences) are provided. For example, the IF term - current price difference is - 35.98, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 18.80% and a full - history percentile of 9.10% [1]. - **Inter - term Spreads**: The inter - term spreads (e.g., next month - current month, quarterly month - current month) of various stock index futures are reported, along with their changes and historical percentile data. For instance, the next month - current month spread of IF is - 14.80, with a change of - 1.80, a historical 1 - year percentile of 28.60%, and a full - history percentile of 24.50% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures (e.g., CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300) are presented, including their current values, changes, and historical percentile data. For example, the CSI 500/SSE 50 ratio is 5.4596, with a change of - 0.0130, a full - history percentile of 98.30%, and a historical 1 - year percentile of 75.20% [1]. **Bond Futures** - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis data of different bond futures (such as TF, T, TL, TS) are provided, including their current values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical percentile data. For example, the TF basis is 1.6050, with a change of - 0.0210 and a historical percentile of 41.30% [2]. - **Inter - term Spreads**: The inter - term spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter, next quarter - subsequent quarter) of various bond futures are reported, along with their changes and historical percentile data. For instance, the current quarter - next quarter spread of TF is 0.1200, with a change of 0.0000 and a historical percentile of 42.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) are presented, including their current values, changes, and historical percentile data. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.2430, with a change of 0.0360 and a historical percentile of 12.70% [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures (AU2512, AG2512, COMEX gold, COMEX silver) and spot prices (London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D) are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 860.00 yuan/gram on September 24, up 4.56 yuan or 0.53% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between spot and futures prices and the ratios between different precious metals are presented, including their current values, changes, and percentage changes. For instance, the gold TD - Shanghai gold futures basis is - 3.73, up 2.13 from the previous value, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 22.40% [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The current values, changes, and percentage changes of relevant interest rates (10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) are reported. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.16%, up 0.04 percentage points or 1.0% from the previous day [4]. - **Inventories and Positions**: The inventory data of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (gold and silver) and the positions of ETFs are provided, including their current values, changes, and percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 60543 kilograms, up 1530 kilograms or 2.59% from the previous day [4]. **Container Shipping Industry** - **Spot Freight Rates**: The spot freight rates of different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the MAERSK freight rate is 1576 US dollars/FEU on September 22, up 40 US dollars or 2.60% from the previous day [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes, SCFI comprehensive index, etc.) are presented, including their changes and percentage changes. For instance, the SCFIS (European route) index is 1254.92 points on September 22, down 185.3 points or - 12.87% from September 15 [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of container shipping (EC2602, EC2506, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the EC2602 futures price is 1588.1 on September 24, up 52.5 or 3.42% from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The supply of global container shipping capacity, port - related indicators (port punctuality rate, port berthing situation in Shanghai), monthly export volume, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI) are provided, including their环比 changes and percentage changes. For example, the port punctuality rate in Shanghai in August is 18.31%, down 14.27 percentage points or - 43.80% from July [6].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月25日 | | | | Z0019938 | | | 更粗 | | | | | | 张跌 | | 9月24日 | 9月23日 | | 涨跌幅 | | 江苏一级 50 | 现价 | 8360 | 8310 | | 0.60% | | Y2601 14 | 期价 | 8100 | 8086 | | 0.17% | | Y2601 36 | 墓差 | 260 | 224 | | 16.07% | | 江苏1月 10 | | 01+230 | 01+220 | | | | | 现货墓差报价 | | | | ﺗ | | 0 | 仓单 | 25534 | 25534 | | 0.00% | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | 9月24日 | | | 9月23日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 广东24度 | 现价 | 9020 | 8920 | 100 | 1.12% | | P2601 | 期分 | 9126 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper mine supply, and copper prices are expected to benefit from potential Fed rate cuts. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support copper prices, with the short - term price rising due to mine disturbances. The main focus is on the 81000 - 81500 support level [2]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" pattern, with short - term prices expected to oscillate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to show high - level oscillations after a decline, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices oscillate with aluminum prices. Cost rigidity and pre - holiday stocking support prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation restrict price increases. Short - term ADC12 prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range [7]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - Supply is tight, providing support for tin prices, which continue to oscillate at high levels in the 265000 - 285000 range. The focus is on the supply recovery situation in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - environment is stable, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The main reference range is 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range at 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. Strong peak - season demand supports prices, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and sort out, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; alumina prices in various regions show different degrees of decline [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; various regions' price differences show different degrees of decline [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the futures import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 375 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average is 856 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend considering high - level steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro environment. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and holding short positions on the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Although the weak performance of finished steel drags down raw materials, it is still considered to oscillate upward. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke Industry - The spot price of coke is expected to gradually rebound. The market is trading the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions from September to October and the driving force of a bottom - building rebound. It is recommended to go long on the Coke 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is expected to be in a balanced and slightly tight state. It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar increased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed small fluctuations. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6, a 54.0% decrease [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease, while the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11 to 1603, a 0.7% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The weekly average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7. The weekly iron ore output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.4 to 66.4, a 2.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 to 1185, a 0.4% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The output of sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase. The demand for coking coal increased as the iron ore output continued to rise and the coking plant operation remained stable [6]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the long - holiday approaching, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial pull - back retreats in the stock index market are expected. [2] - Without incremental negative news, the high - end range of the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to be 1.8 - 1.83%. In the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the interest rate is limited, with resistance around 1.75%. [2] - Gold maintains high - level volatility, and its volatility may rise again, but there are large risks of fluctuations as derivative contracts expire at the end of the month. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly. [2] - The shipping index of container transportation (European line) shows a volatile trend. Steel prices continue to fluctuate, supported by steel exports. Iron ore prices are strong due to reduced shipments, increased molten iron production, and restocking demand. [2] - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices of coking coal and coke are volatile. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and some coke enterprises have started to propose price increases. [2] - Supply concerns in the copper market have increased due to disturbances at the Grasberg mine, leading to a rapid rise in copper prices. The cost of alumina provides support, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline. [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and EIA inventory drawdowns have strengthened short - term support for oil prices. The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the supply - demand outlook for PX is positive but affected by strong cost factors. [2] - New device commissioning expectations and a weak terminal market have put pressure on the upside of ethylene glycol. The market for agricultural products has entered a stage of stop - falling adjustment, and the supply of new cotton is increasing. [2] - The glass market has been strongly driven by news, and rubber prices are strongly volatile in the short term due to typhoon weather. The market sentiment of industrial silicon has improved, and the price of polysilicon has rebounded. [2] Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the stock index shows a full - scale rebound with a hot tech sector. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price around 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums. [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tight capital and a strong stock market have suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - side operations and participate in basis narrowing strategies for the TL contract. [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold maintains high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or use out - of - the - money call options. For silver above $41, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [2] Black - **Steel**: Steel exports support the black market valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to short - sell the spread between January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, buy iron ore 2601 on dips (reference range: 780 - 850), and go long on coking coal 2601 (reference range: 1150 - 1300) and coke 2601 (reference range: 1650 - 1800). [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to supply concerns, copper prices have risen rapidly. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500. [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The cost of alumina provides support, the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand supports the price of aluminum alloys. [2] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc shows inventory drawdowns in the peak season, tin imports remain low in August, nickel shows a volatile upward trend, and stainless steel shows a slight upward movement. [2] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks and inventory drawdowns support oil prices. It is recommended to use single - side band - trading strategies, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as urea, PX, and ethylene glycol, different trading strategies are recommended based on their supply - demand situations and price trends. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as grains, oils, sugar, cotton, and eggs have different price trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals. [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by news and weather respectively, and industrial silicon and polysilicon have price rebounds due to improved market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by news and shows a weakening trend in a tight - balance fundamental situation. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market rebounded on Wednesday, with the technology sector leading the rise and consumer stocks experiencing a correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, but the basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals stopped rising and slightly corrected at high levels due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the resilience of the US economy, and the rebound of the US dollar [9]. - The shipping index (European line) EC showed a volatile trend. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, copper prices rose rapidly due to supply concerns, while the price of alumina was in a state of wide - range bottom - level oscillation with limited downward space [12][17]. - The prices of black metals were also volatile. Steel prices continued to oscillate, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke were affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [41][44][47]. - The prices of agricultural products showed different trends. The purchase of Argentine soybeans by China weakened the expected supply gap of domestic meal products, while the price of live pigs was stable in supply and demand and difficult to improve before the National Day [55][58]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, the A - share market opened lower and then oscillated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%. The technology sector led the rise, while consumer stocks corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2512 and IH2512 rising 1.69% and 0.94% respectively, and IC2512 and IM2512 rising 3.90% and 3.21% respectively. The basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to oscillation. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 at a light position when the index corrects to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding Situation**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. However, after the market, the central bank announced that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations on a single - side strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On September 24, the US announced a trade agreement with the EU and a support plan for Argentina, which eased the risk of asset selling in Argentina and reduced the risk - aversion sentiment. The US new home sales increased significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded. International gold prices ended a three - day rising streak, falling 0.74% to $3736.07 per ounce, and international silver prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $43.89 per ounce [7][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of September 22, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next six weeks were in a certain range. For example, Maersk's quotation was $840 - 1279/FEU and $1400 - 2038/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Index**: As of September 22, the SCFIS European line index was 1254.92 points, a week - on - week decrease of 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9% to $1052/TEU [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 24, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The eurozone's composite PMI in August was 51, and the US manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures market oscillated. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in an oscillating market and pay attention to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 24, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 80045 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 80030 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [13]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident continued to cause supply concerns. Freeport announced force majeure, and it is expected that the mine will not return to its pre - accident production level until 2027. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline month - on - month [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the decline in copper prices, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, domestic social inventories decreased, and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply concern of global copper mines supported the copper price. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 24, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [17]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina decreased week - on - week, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous week [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected that the main contract will oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 24, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20680 yuan/ton, and the average premium of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased slightly [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, and the orders of profile enterprises improved, with the operating rates of various sectors remaining stable or increasing [20]. - **Inventory**: There was a positive signal in inventory. On September 24, the daily inventory of three - location aluminum ingots decreased by 0.85 tons, and the expectation of an approaching inventory inflection point was enhanced [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Although there is uncertainty at the macro level, the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is expected that the short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract referring to the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [21]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate) - **Zinc**: The price of zinc showed an oscillating trend. The supply was expected to be loose, and the upward space was limited. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [28]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply side provided support. The tin price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [29][32]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated upwards. The output of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand was stable. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 119000 - 124000 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel oscillated slightly upwards. The supply pressure existed, and the demand in the peak season was not significantly released. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract price was expected to oscillate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [41]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable, with rebar remaining stable and hot - rolled coil rising slightly [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost had support, and the profit of steel decreased from a high level. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - **Supply**: The output of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to August, and the output of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil remained at a high level [42]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year from January to August, and the export of steel maintained a high level [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased, and it was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [43]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: Steel prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. It was recommended to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder showed a slight change, and the futures price of iron ore oscillated [44]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, while the steel mill profitability rate decreased slightly [44]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [45]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It was recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot price of domestic coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal rose [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines increased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased [48][49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, the coking operation rate remained stable, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [50]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The second - round price cut of coke by steel mills was implemented, and some coking enterprises began to raise prices [52][54]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [53]. - **Supply**: The daily output of coke of independent coking plants and steel mills remained stable [53]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [54]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports increased [54]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal showed mixed trends, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [55]. - **Fundamentals**: China purchased at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans after Argentina取消谷物和油籽出口关税. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was faster than in previous years [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The price of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The supply of domestic soybean meal was abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal was expected to continue to weaken [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated. The national average price was 12.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm of retail farmers and secondary fattening farmers to slaughter increased [58]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of live pigs were stable, and the price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to oscillate and adjust [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia was generally weak, while the price in North China and the Huang - Huai region was partially strong. The port price decreased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in the four northern ports decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume also decreased [60]. - **Outlook**: The corn price was expected to oscillate weakly under the bearish expectation [60].

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80010 | 80225 | -215.00 | -0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 55 | 60 | -5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 80265 | -235.00 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 70 | 70 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | 80130 | -210.00 | -0.26% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -35 | -35 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1799 | 1872 | -73.62 | -3 ...