Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and rebounded on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The alumina price has been falling, squeezing the profit of domestic alumina enterprises and weakening the support for the spot price. In Shandong, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term. [2] - Last week, PVC futures rebounded with the support of a warming macro - environment, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream product operating rate has limited improvement, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize from September to October. [2] Urea Industry - The urea futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 210,000 tons in October. The demand is weak, with a short window for autumn fertilizer procurement, high finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers, and slow follow - up of export orders. Without variables such as increased exports or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the spot price may continue to decline, and the futures will continue to fall significantly only if the spot price breaks below 1,550 yuan/ton. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain high as some plants restart or postpone maintenance. The demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, some secondary - downstream inventories are high, and styrene plants plan to reduce production in September - October. The price driving force is weak. [10] - The situation of styrene is similar to that of pure benzene. The supply - demand is expected to be loose in September, and the price driving force is weak. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has increased significantly due to delayed maintenance of some domestic plants, while the demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants postpone commissioning, and many PTA plants plan to have maintenance. The PXN may be compressed in the fourth quarter, and the price driving force is weak. [14] - For PTA, the supply is expected to shrink, but the demand increase is limited, and the basis is not strongly supported. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. [14] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term supply - demand is turning weak. Although the inventory is expected to decrease in September, the terminal market is weak. In the long - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new plant commissioning and seasonal demand decline. [14] - For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price is supported at the low level but lacks upward driving force. [14] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand is still loose. Although the price and processing fees are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, the processing fee has limited upward space. [14][15] Polyolefin Industry - PP production has decreased recently due to losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week, and there are more import offers from North America. The 01 contract has a large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward space. [20] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is trading high - inventory and fast loading in Iran. The coastal inventory has reached a record high, the market sentiment has worsened, and the price and basis have weakened slightly. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and although there is some unplanned maintenance recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September, and the inventory pattern in the inland is relatively healthy. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The port is still receiving a large amount of goods, with significant inventory accumulation and weak trading. The overall valuation is neutral. The futures are oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. [45] Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices were weakly oscillating. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market has refocused on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has eased concerns about secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, reducing the geopolitical risk support for oil prices. The expectation of future supply surplus, combined with the refinery maintenance season and the unexpected increase in US distillate inventory, has put pressure on oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are under pressure. [49] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase. [2] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - From September 11 to September 18, the FOB price at East - China ports increased by 5 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% increase, and the export profit increased by 217.6 yuan/ton, with a 3723.4% increase. The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the CFR price in India decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, with a 3.3% decrease. [2] Supply - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 85.4%, and the operating rate of PVC decreased by 4 percentage points to 75.4%. [2] Demand - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 83.7%, and the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88.2%. [2] Inventory - From September 11 to September 18, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 0.7 tons, with a 7.5% increase, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, with a 1.2% decrease. [2] Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 17, compared with September 16, the 01 - contract price of urea decreased by 5 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the 05 - contract price decreased by 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.17% decrease. [5] Upstream Raw Materials - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of动力煤 at the pithead in Yijinhuoluo Banner increased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 2.14% increase, and the price of动力煤 at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.87% increase. [5] Spot Market Prices - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of small - particle urea in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.56% increase, and the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.65% decrease. [5] Supply - Demand - On September 19, compared with September 18, the domestic daily urea output decreased by 0.02 tons, with a 0.11% decrease. From September 12 to September 19, the domestic weekly urea inventory increased by 32,600 tons, with a 2.88% increase, and the order days of domestic urea production enterprises decreased by 0.7 days, with a 10.17% decrease. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 6 US dollars/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [10] Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of styrene in East - China spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a 1.4% decrease, and the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, with a 66.7% decrease. [10] Downstream Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the cash flow of phenol increased by 28 yuan/ton, with an 8.6% increase, and the cash flow of aniline increased by 93 yuan/ton, with a 29.8% increase. [10] Inventory - From September 8 to September 15, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons, with a 6.9% decrease, and the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons, with a 9.9% decrease. [10] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 78.4%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 73.4%. [10] Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% decrease. [14] Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of POY150/48 decreased by 65 yuan/ton, with a 0.9% decrease, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 45 yuan/ton, with a 0.7% decrease. [14] PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4 US dollars/ton, with a 3.9% decrease, and the PX - MX spread increased by 2 US dollars/ton, with a 1.4% increase. [14] PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PTA East - China spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase, and the TA01 - TA05 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [14] MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MEG East - China spot price decreased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the MEG basis (01) decreased by 62 yuan/ton, with a 3.2% decrease. [14] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the PX operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.3%, and the PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.8%. [14] Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the L2601 closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton, with a 180% increase. [20] Spot Market Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of East - China PP raffia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% decrease, and the price of North - China LLDPE film decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% decrease. [20] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the PE enterprise inventory increased by 23,800 tons, with a 5.57% increase, and the PP enterprise inventory increased by 43,400 tons, with an 8.06% increase. [20] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the PE device operating rate increased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.4%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.93 percentage points to 74.9%. [20] Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MA2601 closing price increased by 15 yuan/ton, with a 0.64% increase, and the MA91 spread decreased by 28 yuan/ton, with a 215.38% decrease. [45] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.21%, with a 0.61% decrease, and the methanol port inventory increased by 7,400 tons, with a 0.48% increase. [45] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.22 percentage points to 68%, and the downstream external - MTO device operating rate increased by 6.02 percentage points to 75.08%. [45] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the Brent price increased by 0.17 US dollars/barrel, with a 0.25% increase, and the SC price decreased by 6.3 yuan/barrel, with a 1.27% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the price of NYM RBOB increased by 0.56 cents/gallon, with a 0.28% increase, and the price of ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.75 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Crack Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the US gasoline crack spread decreased by 1 US dollars/barrel, with a 4.73% decrease, and the European gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.48 US dollars/barrel, with a 2.44% decrease. [49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern remains bearish. After the traditional summer maintenance season, supply is at a high level. Without actual capacity exit or load - reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [1]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, the spot market is driven by sentiment, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. In the medium - term, the actual demand during the peak season should be focused on. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in some regions increased slightly, while soda ash prices in some contracts decreased slightly. For example, the Huazhong glass quote increased by 0.88%, and the soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 0.14% [1]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 2.02%, and the weekly output decreased by 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The current log price is temporarily stable supported by cost. With low arrival volume and low inventory, the price has strong bottom support. Although demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, there is no obvious improvement trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices decreased, with the 2511 contract closing at 801.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 7.5 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of major standard delivery products remained unchanged [2]. - **Supply**: The number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 6, and the arrival volume decreased by 208,000 cubic meters [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters [2]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the average daily log delivery volume increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 62,900 cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Rubber Industry Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. The 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 16,500 yuan per ton. The subsequent supply situation in the peak - production season of the main producing areas should be focused on [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of some rubber products decreased, such as the Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 1.66%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.99% [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 20.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.50% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of some countries increased in July, such as Thailand's production increased by 1.61% and Indonesia's production increased by 12.09%. The domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.66%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.30% [3]. Report 4: Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The polysilicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The rise in downstream prices, industry meetings, and low inventory of some enterprises support the price increase of polysilicon enterprises [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 0.10%, and the N - type material basis increased by 35.64% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract price decreased by 0.53%, and some monthly spreads increased, such as the 当月 - 连一 spread increased by 80.00% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 100.00% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 100.00% [4]. Report 5: Industry Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints From the cost side, the cost of industrial silicon is rising. From the supply - demand side, the supply - demand in August increased simultaneously, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacities are cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products increased, such as the basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 36.36% [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 25.00% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, the national开工率 increased by 6.20%, and the organic silicon DMC production increased by 11.66% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1.07%, the Yunnan factory inventory increased by 5.45%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Report Date - The report is dated September 19, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF511) has a spot price of 5728, a futures price of 5756, a basis of -28, a basis rate of -0.49%, and a historical quantile of 55.60% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM601) has a spot price of 6000, a futures price of 5970, a basis of 30, a basis rate of 0.50%, and a historical quantile of 30.70% [1] - Rebar (RB2601) has a spot price of 3240, a futures price of 3147, a basis of 93, a basis rate of 2.96%, and a historical quantile of 47.30% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601) has a spot price of 3400, a futures price of 3354, a basis of 46, a basis rate of 1.37%, and a historical quantile of 38.30% [1] - Iron ore (12601) has a spot price of 841, a futures price of 800, a basis of 41, a basis rate of 5.07%, and a historical quantile of 34.80% [1] - Coke (J2601) has a spot price of 1635, a futures price of 1709, a basis of -74, a basis rate of -4.33%, and a historical quantile of 24.76% [1] - Coking coal (JM2601) has a spot price of 1140, a futures price of 1204, a basis of -64, a basis rate of -5.28%, and a historical quantile of 13.70% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2510) has a spot price of 79990, a futures price of 79620, a basis of 370, a basis rate of 0.46%, and a historical quantile of 80.62% [1] - Aluminum (AL2511) has a spot price of 20780, a futures price of 20785, a basis of -5, a basis rate of -0.02%, and a historical quantile of 56.25% [1] - Alumina (AO2601) has a spot price of 3046, a futures price of 2931, a basis of 115, a basis rate of 3.92%, and a historical quantile of 59.47% [1] - Zinc (ZN2510) has a spot price of 21940, a futures price of 22035, a basis of -95, a basis rate of -0.43%, and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - Tin (SN2510) has a spot price of 270200, a futures price of 269100, a basis of 1100, a basis rate of 0.41%, and a historical quantile of 78.95% [1] - Nickel (NI2510) has a spot price of 121900, a futures price of 120940, a basis of 960, a basis rate of 0.79%, and a historical quantile of 90.00% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2511) has a spot price of 13270, a futures price of 12875, a basis of 395, a basis rate of 3.07%, and a historical quantile of 77.46% [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2511) has a spot price of 73450, a futures price of 72880, a basis of 570, a basis rate of 0.78%, and a historical quantile of 62.55% [1] - Industrial silicon (212511) has a spot price of 9350, a futures price of 8905, a basis of 445, a basis rate of 5.00%, and a historical quantile of 32.79% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) has a spot price of 824.5, a futures price of 824.1, a basis of 0.4, a basis rate of 0.05%, and a historical quantile of 96.60% [1] - Silver (AG2512) has a spot price of 9811.0, a futures price of 9835.0, a basis of -24.0, a basis rate of -0.24%, and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) has a spot price of 2920, a futures price of 2993.0, a basis of -73.0, a basis rate of -2.44%, and a historical quantile of 25.10% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2601) has a spot price of 8400, a futures price of 8284.0, a basis of 116.0, a basis rate of 1.40%, and a historical quantile of 21.10% [1] - Palm oil (P2601) has a spot price of 9210, a futures price of 9304.0, a basis of -94.0, a basis rate of -1.01%, and a historical quantile of 4.80% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM601) has a spot price of 2560, a futures price of 2470.0, a basis of 90.0, a basis rate of 3.64%, and a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - Rapeseed oil (Ol601) has a spot price of 10210, a futures price of 9984.0, a basis of 226.0, a basis rate of 2.26%, and a historical quantile of 73.40% [1] - Corn (C2511) has a spot price of 2280, a futures price of 2177.0, a basis of 103.0, a basis rate of 4.73%, and a historical quantile of 89.90% [1] - Corn starch (CS2511) has a spot price of 2600, a futures price of 2471.0, a basis of 129.0, a basis rate of 5.22%, and a historical quantile of 64.90% [1] - Live pigs (H251) has a spot price of 12900, a futures price of 12830.0, a basis of 70.0, a basis rate of 0.55%, and a historical quantile of 43.10% [1] - Eggs (JD2511) has a spot price of 3600, a futures price of 3132.0, a basis of 468.0 [1] - Cotton (CF601) has a spot price of 15249, a futures price of 13765.0, a basis of 1484.0, a basis rate of 10.78%, and a historical quantile of 93.60% [1] - Sugar (SR601) has a spot price of 5960, a futures price of 5474.0, a basis of 486.0, a basis rate of 8.88%, and a historical quantile of 85.80% [1] - Apples (AP601) has a spot price of 8600, a futures price of 8281.0, a basis of 319.0, a basis rate of 3.85%, and a historical quantile of 33.60% [1] - Jujubes (CJ601) has a spot price of 8300, a futures price of 10620.0, a basis of -2320.0, a basis rate of -21.85%, and a historical quantile of 10.40% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX511) has a spot price of 6775.8, a futures price of 6684.0, a basis of 91.8, a basis rate of 1.37%, and a historical quantile of 50.60% [1] - PTA (TA601) has a spot price of 4590.0, a futures price of 4666.0, a basis of -76.0, a basis rate of -1.6%, and a historical quantile of 24.30% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a spot price of 4345.0, a futures price of 4268.0, a basis of 77.0, a basis rate of 1.80%, and a historical quantile of 86.10% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF511) has a spot price of 6465.0, a futures price of 6344.0, a basis of 121.0, a basis rate of 1.91%, and a historical quantile of 73.30% [1] - Styrene (EB2511) has a spot price of 7100.0, a futures price of 7062.0, a basis of 38.0, a basis rate of 0.54%, and a historical quantile of 35.10% [1] - Methanol (MA601) has a spot price of 2247.5, a futures price of 2346.0, a basis of -98.5, a basis rate of -4.20%, and a historical quantile of 13.60% [1] - Urea (UR601) has a spot price of 1640.0, a futures price of 1670.0, a basis of -30.0, a basis rate of -1.80%, and a historical quantile of 6.40% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) has a spot price of 7225.0, a futures price of 7188.0, a basis of 37.0, a basis rate of 0.51%, and a historical quantile of 33.10% [1] - PP (PP2601) has a spot price of 6860.0, a futures price of 6926.0, a basis of -66.0, a basis rate of -0.95%, and a historical quantile of 9.70% [1] - PVC (V2601) has a spot price of 4770.0, a futures price of 4923.0, a basis of -153.0, a basis rate of -3.11%, and a historical quantile of 38.30% [1] - Caustic soda (SH601) has a spot price of 2500.0, a futures price of 2580.0, a basis of -80.0, a basis rate of -3.10%, and a historical quantile of 34.80% [1] - LPG (PG2511) has a spot price of 4498.0, a futures price of 4460.0, a basis of 38.0, a basis rate of 0.85%, and a historical quantile of 33.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2511) has a spot price of 3520.0, a futures price of 3427.0, a basis of 93.0, a basis rate of 2.71%, and a historical quantile of 70.70% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2511) has a spot price of 11700.0, a futures price of 11415.0, a basis of 285.0, a basis rate of 2.50%, and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Glass (FG601) has a spot price of 1080.0, a futures price of 1208.0, a basis of -128.0, a basis rate of -11.85%, and a historical quantile of 21.75% [1] - Soda ash (SA601) has a spot price of 1216.0, a futures price of 1306.0, a basis of -90.0, a basis rate of -7.40%, and a historical quantile of 10.04% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) has a spot price of 14800.0, a futures price of 15570.0, a basis of -770.0, a basis rate of -5.20%, and a historical quantile of 48.23% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFF has a spot price of 4498.1, a futures price of 4487.2, a basis of -10.9, a basis rate of -0.24%, and a historical quantile of 35.00% [1] - IH2509.CFE has a spot price of 2912.8, a futures price of 2910.8, a basis of -2.0, a basis rate of -0.07%, and a historical quantile of 46.40% [1] - IC2509.CFE has a spot price of 7199.9, a futures price of 7171.6, a basis of -28.3, a basis rate of -0.39%, and a historical quantile of 42.80% [1] - IM2509.CFE has a spot price of 7476.4, a futures price of 7454.8, a basis of -21.6, a basis rate of -0.29%, and a historical quantile of 57.50% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2512) has a spot price of 99.97, a futures price of 102.41, a basis of -0.03, a basis rate of -0.03%, and a historical quantile of 16.30% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2512) has a spot price of 99.46, a futures price of 105.82, a basis of -0.05, a basis rate of -0.05%, and a historical quantile of 20.10% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2512) has a spot price of 100.13, a futures price of 108.07, a basis of 0.02, a basis rate of 0.02%, and a historical quantile of 17.70% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2512) has a spot price of 127.09, a futures price of 115.68, a basis of 0.45, a basis rate of 0.39%, and a historical quantile of 66.00% [1]

1. Steel Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak demand and the expectation of a contraction in coal supply. With the impact of reduced coking coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space is expected to be limited, and prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 33 yuan to 3204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions mostly declined, and the profits of rebar also showed a mixed trend [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2% increase). The production of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly by 5.1 to 1519.7 tons (0.3% increase) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 tons (0.8% increase), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 tons (6.0% increase) [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Considering that the steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level. The low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. It is recommended to view the single - side trend as oscillating upwards, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to buy the 2601 contract of iron ore at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The basis of the 01 - contract for various iron ore powders decreased significantly. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 39.8 to 40.3 yuan/ton (- 49.7%). The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 yuan/ton (2.6%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 tons (29.6%), while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 tons (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3 tons (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 tons (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 tons (0.6%) [4]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For coke, the market is driven by the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions in September and the bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1509 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 26 to 1709 yuan/ton (- 1.5%). The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 30 to 1230 yuan/ton (2.5%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, while the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 tons (5.1%). The raw coal output of main - producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 tons (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the demand for coking coal and coke showed an upward trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 tons (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with different inventory trends among different sectors [6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, leading to short - term profit - taking in the index. The technology sector still dominates the market, but with the holiday approaching, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may have a high of 1.8% without incremental negative news, and the short - term downward movement is limited. The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and silver fluctuates in the 41 - 42.5 - dollar range [2]. - The EC (European line) of the container shipping index continues to decline, and the steel price drops with the convergence of the coil - rebar spread [2]. - The iron ore price is supported by the recovery of shipments, the increase in hot metal, and restocking demand. The coal and coke futures have a rebound expectation [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disturbances and interest rate cuts [2]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors like supply - demand expectations, new device production, and检修 (maintenance) [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply prospects, inventory, and market demand [2]. - The prices of special and new - energy products are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions [2] Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The overseas interest rate cut led to a rise and then a fall in A - shares. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The capital situation remains tight, and the bond futures have a slight correction. It is recommended to operate within the range and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at a low price below 3600 dollars (820 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on silver [2]. Black - **Steel**: Try short - term long positions during the correction and shrink the coil - rebar spread of the January contract. Do long - short operations between iron ore and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Do long on the 2601 contract within the 780 - 850 range and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Do long on the 2601 contracts of coking coal, coke, etc., within the corresponding price ranges and conduct long - short arbitrage [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The prices are affected by various factors, and different contracts have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Tin**: The main contract is expected to operate between 285000 - 265000 [2][3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of strong short - term drivers, and attention should be paid to refinery start - up trends. Options can be considered after the volatility increases [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oils**: The prices are affected by factors such as policies and supply - demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply pressure and market demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply prospects and inventory, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. Special and New - Energy - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass, rubber, etc. are affected by factors such as production and sales and macro - drivers, and most are recommended to wait and see [2]. - **New - Energy Products**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions, and corresponding operation suggestions are given [2].

1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 1.2 Core View Yesterday, the market sentiment weakened, and the glass and soda ash futures markets both corrected. The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. For soda ash, although the inventory has not increased recently, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, the downstream demand for soda ash will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. For glass, although the spot market transactions were good at the beginning of the week, the inventory in some mid - stream areas remains high, and the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs to clear out excess capacity. Short - term sentiment may drive the spot market, but the sustainability needs to be tracked. For soda ash, it is advisable to short on rebounds; for glass, track policy implementation and mid - to - downstream stocking performance during the peak season [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in the central China region increased by 0.88%, and glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 rose by 0.15% and 0.22% respectively. Soda ash futures contract 2509 rose by 0.28%, while 2505 fell by 0.14% [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons, and the start - up rate dropped by 2.02% to 85.53%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2.2 Core View Yesterday, the log futures market closed down. The spot price of the main deliverable product remained unchanged. The inventory increased, and the demand showed a slight increase. The arrival volume continued to be low, and the price was supported by the cost. It is recommended to go long on dips. Future attention should be paid to the sales volume during the seasonal peak season [2]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all fell, with the 2511 contract closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 7.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of radiation pine and spruce in major ports remained unchanged [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and the import theoretical cost changed little [2]. - **Supply**: The monthly port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38% to 44 [2]. - **Inventory and Demand**: As of September 12, the national total inventory of coniferous logs increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters [2]. 3. Rubber 3.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2.2 Core View The demand for natural rubber is not as expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. The supply is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, but the expected increase in supply in the future weakens the cost support. With the approaching of the holiday, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the commodity macro - sentiment weakens. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output in the main production areas during the peak season and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 1.66%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.99%, and the price of cup rubber increased by 0.88% [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 20.00%, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.50% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's increased by 12.09%, and India's decreased by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.27%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and tire exports decreased by 5.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66%, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1.30% [3]. 4. Polysilicon 4.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 4.2 Core View The industry self - regulation meeting was held again this week, and some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises support the rise of the polysilicon industry. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce, while high - price resources face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed material increased by 0.10%, and the N - type material basis increased by 35.64% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.53%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the increase of the "current month - continuous first" spread by 80.00% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 100.00% to 0, while monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 40.30% to 0.11 million tons, and net exports decreased by 14.92% to 0.11 million tons [4]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 100.00% to 0 [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon 5.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 5.2 Core View From the cost perspective, raw - material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, raising the cost of industrial silicon. Although the production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the future, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis**: The price of East China's oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 15.58%. The price of Xinjiang's 99 - silicon increased by 0.57%, and the basis increased by 18.80% [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread increasing by 25.00% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Monthly national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the national start - up rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 11.66%, and polysilicon production increased by 23.31% [5]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07%, Yunnan's increased by 5.45%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. The total positions of these futures have generally increased, with significant increases in some cases. The top 20 seats have also shown changes in positions, with some major institutions increasing their long and short positions [1][5][11][17][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 18, the total position of the IF variety increased by 14,691 hands, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 22,028 hands [5] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,796 hands. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,989 hands, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,347 hands [6] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 51,765 hands. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,002 hands, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,394 hands [8] IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 18, the total position of the IH variety increased by 10,071 hands, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 9,707 hands [11] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,867 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,165 hands, while Nanhua Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 304 hands [12] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 20,073 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,256 hands, while Bank of China Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 786 hands [13] IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 18, the total position of the IC variety increased by 19,056 hands, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 20,830 hands [17] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,201 hands. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 3,896 hands, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 480 hands [18] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,330 hands. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 4,530 hands, while Bank of China Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,729 hands [20] IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 18, the total position of the IM variety increased by 25,806 hands, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 33,716 hands [23] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 56,920 hands. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 6,451 hands, and only Zheshang Futures reduced its long position, by 29 hands [23] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 82,324 hands. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 6,423 hands, while Huatai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 164 hands [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the FOMC meeting, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the Shanghai copper futures price oscillated. The macro - environment showed that the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The previous loose trading for copper may have ended, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The fundamentals were in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provided bottom support, and in the short - term, copper prices oscillated strongly under the loose background. The subsequent upward cycle needed the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract was 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market was in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply - side factors such as the potential restart of a mining company in Guinea and a possible strike, as well as production cuts in Henan due to environmental protection, provided short - term support, but the overall supply was in excess. The demand was weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term main contract was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro - atmosphere was bullish, and the fundamentals improved moderately. The short - term price was expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. If the demand improvement was less than expected, the price might fall back [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and declined with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the procurement cost of recycled aluminum enterprises was high, which supported the price. The demand showed a mild recovery, and the inventory was still accumulating. The short - term main contract was expected to run in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices were generally strong, but Shanghai zinc was relatively weak due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side saw overseas mines entering the production and resumption cycle, and the smelting profit was repaired. The demand entered the peak season, but the domestic and overseas performance was differentiated. The short - term price might be driven up by the macro - environment, but the upward space was limited. The reference range for the main contract was 21500 - 22500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and the demand was weak. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was difficult to make up for the decline in traditional demand. If the supply in Myanmar recovered smoothly, a short - selling strategy could be considered; otherwise, the price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the running range of 265000 - 285000 [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the macro - environment was weak. The spot trading of refined nickel did not change significantly. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was relatively loose, and the price of nickel - iron was strong. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price decreased slightly, and the market trading was average. The macro - environment overseas was weak after the Fed's interest - rate cut, while domestic policies were positive. The raw material prices were firm, and the supply of nickel - iron increased, but the demand for stainless steel had not significantly increased. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 12800 - 13400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the domestic policies had been digested by the market. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state. The supply increased due to new projects and increased lithium - spodumene processing, and the demand was expected to increase in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main - contract price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in August was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.44 million tons week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The alumina production in August was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.3 million tons week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20950 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production in August was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in August was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The galvanizing开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 0.43 million tons week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price was 270200 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in July decreased by 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHEF inventory increased by 124 tons, and the social inventory increased by 108 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day. The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 400 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 460 tons week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.83 million tons month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.60 million tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.451 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in August was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The lithium carbonate total inventory in August decreased by 366 tons month - on - month, and the downstream inventory increased by 7552 tons month - on - month [15].