Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The second round of China-US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the A-share market declined and adjusted after the Politburo meeting, with consumption rising against the trend. There was a short - term expectation gap in the market [2] - The Politburo meeting led to a short - term release of negative factors, causing the bond futures to rise. The 7 - month PMI index should be monitored [2] - US macro - policies and other negative factors may put pressure on the gold price, and it can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. The silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan) [2] - The market expectation of the container shipping index (European line) has cooled, leading to a price decline [2] - The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and the coking plants have the expectation of further price increases [2] - The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the aluminum market [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply, and the oil price is in a strong - side shock [2] - The urea market is restricted by export difficulties and high inventory, and the PX market is affected by the downstream of the industrial chain [2] - The PTA market has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials, and the short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand expectation [2] - The bottle - chip market is following the cost fluctuation, and the ethylene glycol market's supply - demand situation has turned loose [2] - The soybean meal market is suppressed by the expected high yield of US soybeans, and the pig market's previous policy benefits have been digested [2] - The corn market is in a state of long - short entanglement, and the palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - The sugar market has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and the cotton market has a tight old - crop inventory and a weak downstream market [2] - The egg market is seasonally strong in the short - term but bearish in the long - term, and the apple market is trading lightly [2] - The red - date market has a stable and firm spot price but is bearish in the long - term, and the soda - ash market has repeated price fluctuations [2] - The glass market has a weakening spot sales and repeated price fluctuations, and the rubber market has a high - level shock [2] - The industrial silicon market's futures price fluctuates downward with the market, and the polysilicon market has multiple contracts reaching the daily limit [2] - The lithium carbonate market has a wide - range shock due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares declined and adjusted. It is recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures, replace it with a small amount of short positions in the far - month contract 6300 strike price MO put options, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish attitude [2] - **Treasury Bond**: After the Politburo meeting, short - term negative factors were released, and the bond futures rose. It is recommended to try to go long in the short - term and pay attention to the 7 - month PMI index [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is under pressure and can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. Silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan), and if it breaks, it may fall to $36 (8700 yuan) [2] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore follows the steel price. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The exchange's position - limit intervention has caused large fluctuations in futures. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low levels. The mainstream coking plants have the fifth - round price increase, and it is recommended to go long on coke at low levels [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation. The reference price range for the main contract is 77000 - 79000, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The aluminum price has a narrow - range shock, and the reference price ranges for the main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, and zinc are given. The tin price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way, with the resistance levels of WTI, Brent, and SC given [2] - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventory restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way within the range of 1700 - 1800 [2] - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is tight, but the downstream of the industrial chain affects the trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2] - **PTA**: It has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to be bearish above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the processing margin at a low level [2] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100 [2] - **Bottle - chip**: It maintains production cuts, and the processing margin's upward space depends on demand. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Multiple domestic and foreign plants have restarted, and the supply - demand situation has turned loose. It is recommended to wait and see on the EG09 single - side and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various other chemicals such as caustic soda, PVC, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The soybean meal market is affected by the expected high yield of US soybeans. The pig market is bearish. The corn market is in a long - short entanglement. The palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - **Others**: For other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For special commodities such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] - **New Energy Commodities**: For new - energy commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market experienced a decline and adjustment, with the consumer sector rising against the trend. The four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiations, with a short - term improvement in sentiment. Precious metals prices dropped due to a strong US economy and the Fed's decision to hold rates. The shipping futures market was expected to be weak and volatile. The prices of most non - ferrous metals were under pressure, and the agricultural product market had different trends based on supply and demand and policy factors [2][3][5][8][11][13][15][16][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The main stock indexes showed mixed trends on Wednesday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different performances, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising, and IC2509 and IM2509 falling. The high - dividend sector rose, while the TMT sector significantly corrected. It was recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures and replace it with a small amount of short positions in the MO put option with an exercise price of 6300 in the far - month contract [2][3][4]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed up across the board. The Politburo meeting had a mild statement on anti - involution and did not introduce unexpected growth - stabilizing policies, which was a sign of the end of negative factors for the bond market. It was recommended to be long in the short - term and pay attention to economic data [5][6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Trump announced tariffs on India and Brazil, and the US economy showed strong performance. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, causing the US dollar to rise and precious metals to fall sharply. Gold and silver prices dropped, and it was recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the support level. Silver prices were affected by market sentiment and had a relatively large decline, with the price seeking support above 37 dollars [8][9][11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - The spot quotes of container shipping were weak, and the shipping indexes declined. The futures market was expected to be weak and volatile, and it was recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [13][14][15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper was high, and the trading sentiment was poor. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on electrolytic copper was disappointed, and the price was under pressure. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak. It was recommended to pay attention to the price range of 77000 - 79000 [16][17][20]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased slightly. The supply was expected to be in a state of slight excess, but there was a risk of a short squeeze due to low warehouse receipts. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [20][22][23]. Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased slightly. The market was in a traditional off - season, with weak demand and a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to be volatile at a high level, and the reference price range was 20200 - 21000 [23][24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged. The industry was in an off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. The price was expected to be volatile, and the reference price range was 19600 - 20400 [26][27][28]. Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased slightly. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be weak and volatile, and the reference price range was 22000 - 23000 [28][29][31]. Tin - The spot price of tin increased slightly. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be volatile, and it was recommended to wait and see [31][33][34]. Nickel - The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be adjusted within a range, and the reference price range was 120000 - 128000 [34][35][37]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly. The raw material prices were loose, and the supply was under pressure. The demand was weak, and the price was expected to be volatile within a range, with a reference price range of 12600 - 13200 [37][38][40]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly. The supply was affected by mining issues, and the demand was stable. The price was expected to be volatile around 70,000, and it was recommended to wait and see [41][42][44]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Steel prices declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, but the steel mill profits improved. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was stable. The price was expected to be volatile, and it was recommended to buy on dips [45][46][47]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore showed mixed trends. The demand was strong, and the supply was expected to increase slightly. The price was expected to be affected by steel production and policies, and it was recommended to be cautiously long and consider the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short iron ore [48][49]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price fluctuated sharply, and the spot price was stable and strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was high. The inventory was at a medium level. It was recommended to be cautiously long and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [50][51][52]. Coke - The coke futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was expected to rise. The supply was limited, and the demand was strong. The inventory was at a medium level. It was recommended to be cautiously long and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coke and short iron ore [53][54][55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - The domestic meal spot price increased. The US soybean was under pressure due to a high - yield expectation, while the domestic soybean meal had support due to import concerns. It was recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. Live Pigs - The live pig spot price was weak. The supply and demand were both weak, and the short - term price was not optimistic. The near - month contract was under pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [60][61]. Corn - The corn spot price was stable. The market was affected by multiple factors, and the price was expected to be volatile [62].

Report Summary Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities across multiple sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 6028, futures price is 6008, basis is 20, basis rate is 0.33%, and historical quantile is 35.20% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 6070, futures price is 6116, basis is - 46, basis rate is - 0.75%, and historical quantile is 19.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3315, basis is 125, basis rate is 3.77%, and historical quantile is 57.30% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3500, futures price is 3483, basis is 17, basis rate is 0.49%, and historical quantile is 24.30% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 823, futures price is 789, basis is 34, basis rate is 4.36%, and historical quantile is 30.50% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1570, futures price is 1677, basis is - 106, basis rate is - 6.34%, and historical quantile is 10.56% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1155, futures price is 1117, basis is 38, basis rate is 3.40%, and historical quantile is 36.60% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price is 79285, futures price is 78930, basis is 355, basis rate is 0.45%, and historical quantile is 77.50% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price is 20670, futures price is 20625, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, and historical quantile is 61.66% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3248, futures price is 3326, basis is - 78, basis rate is - 2.33%, and historical quantile is 20.26% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price is 22610, futures price is 22670, basis is - 60, basis rate is - 0.26%, and historical quantile is 37.50% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price is 268100, futures price is 267870, basis is 230, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 54.37% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE09)**: Spot price is 122350, futures price is 121720, basis is 630, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 81.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price is 13120, futures price is 12920, basis is 200, basis rate is 1.55%, and historical quantile is 44.42% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 72950, futures price is 70600, basis is 2350, basis rate is 3.33%, and historical quantile is 79.29% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 10000, futures price is 9285, basis is 715, basis rate is 7.70%, and historical quantile is 49.37% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 769.5, futures price is 773.8, basis is - 4.3, basis rate is - 0.56%, and historical quantile is 8.90% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9166.0, futures price is 9192.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, and historical quantile is 32.90% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 2880, futures price is 3010.0, basis is - 130.0, basis rate is - 4.32%, and historical quantile is 15.30% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8330, futures price is 8240.0, basis is 90.0, basis rate is 1.09%, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 9010, futures price is 8982.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.31%, and historical quantile is 20.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2590, futures price is 2735.0, basis is - 145.0, basis rate is - 5.30%, and historical quantile is 7.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: Spot price is 9696, futures price is 9621.0, basis is 69.0, basis rate is 0.72%, and historical quantile is 32.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2312.0, basis is 38.0, basis rate is 1.64%, and historical quantile is 65.70% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price is 2800, futures price is 2683.0, basis is 117.0, basis rate is 4.36%, and historical quantile is 58.50% [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 13930, futures price is 14075.0, basis is - 145.0, basis rate is - 1.03%, and historical quantile is 40.20% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3570.0, basis is - 530.0, basis rate is 14.85%, and historical quantile is 6.30% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 15343, futures price is 13755.0, basis is 1588.0, basis rate is 11.54%, and historical quantile is 94.90% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6120, futures price is 5804.0, basis is 316.0, basis rate is 5.44%, and historical quantile is 59.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7915.0, basis is 685.0, basis rate is 8.65%, and historical quantile is 53.40% [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10805.0, basis is - 2505.0, basis rate is - 23.18%, and historical quantile is 5.20% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 7122.7, futures price is 6984.0, basis is 138.7, basis rate is 1.99%, and historical quantile is 64.00% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4850.0, futures price is 4856.0, basis is - 6.0, basis rate is - 0.12%, and historical quantile is 49.20% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4515.0, futures price is 4450.0, basis is 65.0, basis rate is 1.46%, and historical quantile is 83.40% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price is 6615.0, futures price is 6500.0, basis is 115.0, basis rate is 1.77%, and historical quantile is 72.10% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price is 7415.0, futures price is 7387.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.38%, and historical quantile is 32.80% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2405.0, futures price is 2419.0, basis is - 14.0, basis rate is - 0.58%, and historical quantile is 25.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1770.0, futures price is 1742.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 1.61%, and historical quantile is 19.30% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7350.0, futures price is 7387.0, basis is - 37.0, basis rate is - 0.50%, and historical quantile is 11.10% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7160.0, futures price is 7145.0, basis is 15.0, basis rate is 0.21%, and historical quantile is 27.20% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 5060.0, futures price is 5159.0, basis is - 99.0, basis rate is - 1.92%, and historical quantile is 54.60% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2613.0, basis is - 19.3, basis rate is - 0.74%, and historical quantile is 46.40% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 4052.0, basis is 396.0, basis rate is 9.77%, and historical quantile is 56.70% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3785.0, futures price is 3650.0, basis is 135.0, basis rate is 3.70%, and historical quantile is 76.00% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: Spot price is 12100.0, futures price is 11775.0, basis is 325.0, basis rate is 2.76%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1176.0, futures price is 1191.0, basis is - 15.0, basis rate is - 1.28%, and historical quantile is 60.71% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1301.0, futures price is 1311.0, basis is - 10.0, basis rate is - 0.77%, and historical quantile is 26.89% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 15000.0, futures price is 14945.0, basis is 55.0, basis rate is 0.37%, and historical quantile is 97.91% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4151.2, futures price is 4136.4, basis is - 14.8, basis rate is - 0.36%, and historical quantile is 28.70% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2819.4, futures price is 2820.0, basis is 0.6, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6314.7, futures price is 6215.4, basis is - 99.3, basis rate is - 1.60%, and historical quantile is 2.70% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6718.5, futures price is 6604.2, basis is - 114.3, basis rate is - 1.73%, and historical quantile is 11.00% [1]. - **Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 100.26, futures price is 102.34, basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, and historical quantile is 27.60% [1]. - **5 - year Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 100.62, futures price is 105.64, basis is 0.03, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 31.80% [1]. - **10 - year Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 106.91, futures price is 108.31, basis is 0.16, basis rate is 0.15%, and historical quantile is 35.50% [1]. - **30 - year Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 134.07, futures price is 118.44, basis is 0.48, basis rate is 0.41%, and historical quantile is 72.10% [1].

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月31日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月30日 | 7月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 10000 | 0086 | 200 | 2.04% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 715 | 450 | 265 | 58.89% | | | 华乐SI4210工业硅 | 10250 | 10150 | 100 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 165 | 0 | 165 | #DIV/0i | | | 新疆99年 | 0000 | 9100 | 200 | 2.20% | | | 基差(新疆) | 875 | 550 | 265 | 48.18% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月30日 | 7月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2508-2509 | -5 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are likely to gradually rise, with the domestic palm oil following the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The key level for the domestic palm oil market is 9,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, international oil prices enhance its attractiveness in biodiesel, but CBOT soybeans may drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil prices are expected to rise after August [1]. 2. Meal - US soybeans remain weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. However, the supply after October is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract has strong upward pressure. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended [5]. 4. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is relatively stable, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium to long term, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and relatively loose in the fourth quarter [8]. 5. Sugar - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but a bearish view is maintained overall. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is expected to be marginally loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 6. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. 7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. Some areas may see a decline in egg prices next week, but the spot price still has some upward space [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 30, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,420 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8,240 yuan, up 0.17%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 35.07% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan on July 30, up 0.78%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis difference increased by 116.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 30, up 0.94%. The futures price of O1509 was 9,621 yuan, up 1.36% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,890 yuan on July 30, up 1.40%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,010 yuan, up 0.91%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 36.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,620 yuan on July 30, up 3.56%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,735 yuan, up 2.82% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,153 yuan, up 0.22% [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the main contract decreased by 500.00%. The price of the 2511 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the 2509 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [5]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 13,880 yuan, down 200.0 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.61%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,312 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.43%. The basis difference decreased by 20.83%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8.05% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,683 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.64%. The basis difference decreased by 121.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 24.29% [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.13%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,804 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The ICE raw sugar price decreased by 0.60% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning remained at 6,050 yuan. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.87%, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.89% [12]. 6. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,755 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.22%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The ICE cotton price decreased by 0.24% [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,343 yuan, down 0.57%. The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% [14]. 7. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,570 yuan/500KG on July 30, down 0.17%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,271 yuan/500KG, down 2.33% [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price remained at 3.20 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 6.64%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.53% [16][18]

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core View - Presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various spread indicators for stock index futures including IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 31, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF's futures - spot spread is -14.84, with a 32.30% change from the previous day and a 28.70% historical 1 - year quantile; IH's is 0.65, IC's is -99.29, and IM's is -114.28 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report on Bond Futures Spread Core View - Displays the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of indicators like IRR, basis, inter - delivery spread, and cross - variety spread for bond futures on July 31, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond on July 30, 2025, is 1.5292, with a 0.0063 change from the previous day and a 21.20% historical quantile [2]. - **Basis**: TF's basis on July 30, 2025, is 0.0007, T's is 1.4179, etc. [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: TS, TF, T, and TL's inter - delivery spreads are presented, including their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core View - Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on July 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic AU2510 contract closed at 773.78 yuan/gram on July 30, 2025, with a 0.30% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3327.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.08% [4]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 3275.05 dollars/ounce on July 30, 2025, down 1.53%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 769.48 yuan/gram, up 0.30% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.30, with a -0.05 change and an 8.40% historical 1 - year quantile [4]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 89.52, up 3.34% [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.9% [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold increased by 7.03% to 33462 [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Core View - Analyzes the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 31, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quote**: The 6 - week future freight reference from Shanghai to Europe for MAERSK is 3003 dollars/FEU on July 31, 2025, down 0.06% [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 2316.56 on July 28, 2025, down 3.50% from July 21 [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1532.0 points on July 30, 2025, up 0.70%; the basis of the main contract is 802.4, down 1.15% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3273.16 FTEU on July 31, 2025; the port punctuality rate in Shanghai is 34.57, down 18.66% [6]. Report on Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events on July 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Info**: At 2:00, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) and the FOMC released the interest rate resolution; at 17:00, the eurozone announced the June unemployment rate [7]. - **Domestic Data/Info**: At 9:30, China announced the July official manufacturing PMI; at 15:00, SMM announced the total social inventory of electrolytic copper [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].