| 木期货日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 班监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | 品种 | | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 原木2509 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 836.0 845.5 -9.5 -1.12% | 原木2511 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -5.5 -0.65% 840.5 846.0 | 原木260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1. Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil production is seasonally increasing, and with declining exports, the end - of - month inventory is expected to reach around 2.23 million tons, potentially restricting price rebounds. In China, short - term attention should be paid to whether the palm oil futures can effectively stand above 9,000 yuan, and there may be pressure for high - level oscillations or sideways consolidation [1]. - Soybean oil: U.S. biodiesel policies support the long - term trend of U.S. soybean oil, but the poor performance of crude oil due to OPEC's planned production increase drags down soybean oil. In China, soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease after mid - August as demand picks up, and long - term basis is still bullish [1]. 2.2. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the corn market sentiment is bearish, with the futures price oscillating weakly. The decline is limited as there is still time before the large - scale listing of new - season corn. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and supply pressure may lead to a lower valuation of the futures price [2]. 2.3. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is under pressure due to strong production in Brazil, but it is difficult to break previous lows in the short term. The overall outlook is bearish. In the Chinese market, demand is weak, and with increasing imports, the supply - demand situation is expected to ease, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to trend downwards [6][7]. 2.4. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has slightly declined, and it is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and while short - selling is not recommended blindly, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [8]. 2.5. Cotton - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally decreased, but the downstream industry remains weak. With the decline in cotton prices, downstream sentiment has become more pessimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on the 09 contract and hold short positions on far - month contracts [10]. 2.6. Meal - The new - season U.S. soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and export concerns limit the upside of U.S. soybean prices. Brazilian premiums are rising, increasing China's import costs. China's soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, but there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to hold long positions on the 2601 contract of domestic soybean meal, but the strength of oils may limit the upside of meal prices [12]. 2.7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. There is a possibility of a rebound in spot egg prices, but overall, the trading outlook is bearish due to large supply pressure [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On August 5, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8,344 yuan, up 94 yuan (1.14%); the basis of Y2509 was 136 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 32.00%); the warehouse receipts increased by 1,270 to 11,540, a 12.37% increase [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On August 2, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.91%) from August 4; the futures price of P2509 was 9,064 yuan, up 226 yuan (2.56%); the basis of P2509 was - 164 yuan, down 146 yuan (- 811.11%); the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 570 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On August 2, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.83%) from August 4; the futures price of O1509 was 9,542 yuan, up 73 yuan (0.77%); the basis of O1509 was 138 yuan, up 7 yuan (12.07%); the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [1]. 2.2. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On August 5, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,249 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.53%); the basis was 71 yuan, up 15 yuan (26.79%); the 9 - 1 spread was 55 yuan, down 17 yuan (- 23.61%) [2]. - **Corn Starch**: On August 5, the futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,654 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.38%); the basis was 56 yuan, up 10 yuan (21.74%); the 9 - 1 spread was 91 yuan, up 7 yuan (8.33%) [2]. 2.3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On August 6, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,638 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.04%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.37%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 59 yuan, up 23 yuan (28.05%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained at 6,030 yuan/ton; the Nanning basis was 333 yuan, up 21 yuan (6.73%); the import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.07%) [6]. 2.4. Live Pigs - **Futures Market**: On August 6, the price of the main contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.40%); the 9 - 11 spread was 35 yuan, down 170 yuan (- 82.93%); the position of the main contract decreased by 2,721 to 38,250 [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 14,130 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 924 to 136,211 heads, a 0.67% decrease [8]. 2.5. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On August 6, the price of cotton 2509 was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.15%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13,820 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan, down 32 yuan (- 26.92%) [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 12,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.08%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (0.11%) [10]. 2.6. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: On August 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.69%); the futures price of M2509 was 3,024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.47%); the basis of M2509 was - 104 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.45%); the warehouse receipts increased by 4,275 to 5,275, a 427.5% increase [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On August 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.39%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.11%); the basis of RM2509 was - 78 yuan, up 7 yuan (8.24%); the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,200 [12]. 2.7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On August 6, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3,330 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan (- 0.89%); the price of the egg 10 contract was 3,252 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (0.28%); the 9 - 10 spread was 78 yuan, down 39 yuan (- 33.33%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan (- 0.89%); the basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, up 4 yuan (0.93%) [15].

叶倩宁 Z0016628 | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 8月5日 | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2510合约 | 782.50 | 781.42 | 1.08 | 0.14% | 元/克 | | AG2510合约 | 9075 | 9039 | 36 | 0.40% | 元/千克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月2日 | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 3435.00 | 3428.60 | 6.40 | 0.19% | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 37.84 | 37.45 | 0.39 | 1.04% | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月5日 | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 伦敦金 | 3380.51 | 3372.33 | 8.18 | 0.24% | 美元/盎司 | | 伦敦银 | 37.78 | 37.40 | 0.38 ...

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Urea Industry**: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - **Methanol Industry**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - **Strategy**: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - **Strategy**: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - **Strategy**: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].

1. Report on Stock Index Futures Spread 1.1 Core Data Summary - **Price - Spread Data**: The current F spot - futures spread is - 21.45, down 3.55 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 20.80% and an all - time quantile of 29.90%. Other contracts like IC, IH, and IM also have corresponding price - spread data and quantile information [1]. - **Inter - period Spread**: For example, in the F inter - period spread, the spread between the next - month and the current - month is - 0.60, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 27.80% and an all - time quantile of 31.70% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as the CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and IC/IF are provided, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 2. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spread 2.1 Core Data Summary - **Basis Data**: On August 5, 2025, the TS basis was 0.0136, up 0.0213 from the previous day, with a historical percentile since listing of 18.70%. Similar data is available for TF, T, and TL [2]. - **Inter - period Spread**: For example, the spread between the next - quarter and the previous - quarter of TS was - 0.0040, down 0.0360 from the previous day, with a 20.10% quantile [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are presented, along with their changes and quantiles [2]. 3. Report on Precious Metals Spot - Futures 3.1 Core Data Summary - **Price and Spread**: Domestic futures prices of AU2510 and AG2510, foreign futures prices of COMEX gold and silver, and spot prices of London gold and silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D and silver T + D are reported, along with their price changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis and Ratio**: The current basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 2.58, up 3.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 39.30%. Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver are also provided [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: Data on 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: Information on inventories of SHFE gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and positions of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF is presented, along with their changes [4]. 4. Report on Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures 4.1 Core Data Summary - **Spot Quotation**: Spot freight rates from Shanghai to Europe for major shipping companies like MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are reported, along with their price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: Settlement price indices such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route), and Shanghai export container freight rates like SCFI composite index are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of contracts like EC2602, EC2604, and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rate in Shanghai, monthly export amount, and overseas economic indicators such as euro - zone composite PMI are presented, along with their changes [6]. 5. Trading Calendar Report 5.1 Core Data Summary - **Overseas Data/Information**: Overseas economic indicators and events include euro - zone June retail sales month - on - month rate, US API and EIA crude oil inventories, and Brazil Secex monthly report [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Domestic economic indicators and events involve steel mills' weekly production and sales of coking coal, Chinese port commercial crude oil inventory, glass sales - to - production ratio, etc [7].

| 硅铁(SF509) | 5778 | 62 | 64.90% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5716 | 1.08% | 52 | 6070 | 0.86% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 6018 | 35.10% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 127 | 57.90% | 3233 | 3.93% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3360 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 13 | 22.70% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3470 | 3457 | 0.38% | | | | | | 26 | 3.25% | 824 | 23.20% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 799 | -5.26% | 1635 | -86 | 折算价 ...

1. Investment Ratings - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil prices are under downward pressure due to declining export data and potential increases in production and inventory. Domestic palm oil is expected to have a phased adjustment, with attention on the 8800 yuan support level. - Soybean oil prices are affected by the unoptimistic outlook for US soybean exports in the fourth quarter and good weather in the US Midwest, which strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, cost support and increasing demand may limit the decline in prices and the basis quote. - Overall, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate and rise [1]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The pig spot market has stabilized, but short - term prices are still not optimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation. The spot is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and while blind short - selling is not recommended, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [3]. 2.3. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market's rise and fall are limited, and the market will maintain an interval - oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the long term, the supply in the third quarter is tight, which supports prices, while the supply in the fourth quarter may be loose [5]. 2.4. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The Brazilian sugarcane yield and quality in June decreased, and the market speculates that India may have a bumper harvest and export. The short - term price of raw sugar is expected to have a bottom, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents/pound. Domestically, the import volume in June increased, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. 2.5. Meal Industry - The US soybean market is weak due to the lack of positive news and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm, and the pressure on US soybeans is significant. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, and the short - term supply is sufficient. However, there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, while the weakening of demand is weakening marginally. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval, and the price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects the egg production rate. The demand for eggs is expected to first decrease and then increase this week. Next week, the egg price in some areas may decline, but then there may be an increase in demand and an upward space for the spot price. The futures price remains weak due to production capacity [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1. Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan, down 40 yuan (-0.48%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8192 yuan, down 48 yuan (-0.58%); the basis of Y2509 increased by 8 yuan (4.44%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 13709 (-100%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.78%); the futures price of P2509 was 8900 yuan, down 82 yuan (-0.91%); the basis of P2509 increased by 12 yuan (150%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan, down 80 yuan (-0.83%); the futures price of OI2509 was 9510 yuan, down 111 yuan (-1.15%); the basis of OI2509 increased by 28 yuan (52.54%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2. Spread Changes - The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 40 yuan (-3.17%); the soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30 yuan (5.26%) in the spot market and 34 yuan (4.58%) in the 2509 contract [1]. 3.2. Pig Industry 3.2.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan (-1.56%); the 9 - 11 spread increased by 220 (733.33%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 7850 (-14.80%). - Spot: Pig prices in various regions increased, with the largest increase of 400 yuan in Henan [3]. 3.2.2. Industry Indicators - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 200 (-0.37%); the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.1 (-0.48%); the self - breeding profit decreased by 28.7 yuan (-31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 52.7 yuan (-282.58%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows increased by 10,000 (0.02%) [3]. 3.3. Corn Industry 3.3.1. Corn - Futures: The price of corn 2509 decreased by 24 yuan (-1.04%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan (-15.96%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2500 (-1.60%). - Spot: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan (-0.43%); the north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan (-111.11%); the import profit decreased by 29 yuan (-6.58%); the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 152 (70.70%); the trading volume increased by 50092 (3.18%) [5]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Futures: The price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 23 yuan (-0.86%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan (-4.60%); the spread between starch and corn increased by 1 yuan (0.27%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2573 (-100%). - Spot: The prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged; the basis increased by 23 yuan (766.67%); the profit in Shandong increased by 20 yuan (16.67%); the open interest increased by 4920 (1.79%) [5]. 3.4. Sugar Industry 3.4.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.11 cents (-0.67%); the 1 - 9 spread remained unchanged; the main contract's open interest decreased by 21949 (-7.92%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 47 (-0.24%). - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan (-0.33%); the price in Kunming increased by 20 yuan (0.34%); the basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan (-3.66%); the basis in Kunming increased by 31 yuan (40.79%) [8]. 3.4.2. Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the sales volume increased by 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the industrial inventory decreased by 32.21 million tons (-9.56%); the sugar import increased by 8 million tons (160%) [8]. 3.5. Meal Industry 3.5.1. Price Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 10 yuan (-0.33%); the basis increased by 10 yuan (8.33%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 22562 (-100%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan (-0.38%); the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 36 yuan (-1.32%); the basis increased by 26 yuan (22.61%); the warehouse receipt increased by 1200. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged; the futures price of the main contract decreased by 22 yuan (-0.53%); the basis increased by 22 yuan (11.40%) [10]. 3.5.2. Spread Changes - The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan (7.69%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 19 yuan (-6.19%); the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [10]. 3.6. Cotton Industry 3.6.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 105 yuan (-0.76%); the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan (-0.47%); the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.28 cents (-0.41%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan (-26.67%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 26389 (-7.02%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 115 (-1.27%). - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B decreased by 130 yuan (-0.85%); the CC Index 3128B decreased by 145 yuan (-0.94%); the FC Index M 1% decreased by 35 yuan (-0.26%) [12]. 3.6.2. Industry Indicators - The industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons (-2.3%); the import volume decreased by 1 million tons (-25%); the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year; the yarn inventory days increased by 1.13 days (4.1%); the grey cloth inventory days increased by 0.63 days (1.7%) [12]. 3.7. Egg Industry 3.7.1. Price Changes - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 48 yuan (-1.34%); the price of the egg 10 contract decreased by 55 yuan (-1.64%); the egg spot price in the production area decreased by 0.03 yuan (-0.87%); the basis increased by 20 yuan (5.41%); the 9 - 10 spread increased by 7 yuan (3.23%). - The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged; the price of culled hens increased by 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.35 (15.56%); the breeding profit increased by 20.65 yuan (62.61%) [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term price is under pressure due to the disappointment of the 50% US copper tariff expectation, with the main price range expected to be 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved [1]. Aluminum - The short - term main contract of alumina is expected to run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium term. Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term, with the main contract price range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The subsequent demand will remain weak, suppressing the upward momentum of prices. However, the downward space is limited due to the high cost of scrap aluminum. The disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the supply improvement of refined zinc lags behind, and the demand is affected by the seasonal off - season [7]. Tin - It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the disk is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation is changeable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [11]. Stainless Steel - The short - term disk is mainly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the terminal demand is weak [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The main price is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without positions, and consider shorting the near - term contract and longing the far - term contract for inter - period trading. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and supply adjustments [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.91% to 78,565 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 14.18% to 844 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 66,837 tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 23.23% to 56.09 tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.44% to 20,580 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 tons. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.06% to 54.40 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 tons. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.59% to 3.26 tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.68% to 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 20.54 yuan/ton to - 1602 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 45 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 tons. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 4.98% to 10.32 tons [7]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.97% to 265,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 166.76% to - 7.01 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 5.93% to - 15,773.30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 380 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.36% to 9,958 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.46% to 121,250 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 62.17% to - 3,863 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.97% to 40,338 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 32.50% to 265 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.20% to 51.48 tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.30% to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 48.70% to 4,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and imports decreased by 16.31% to 17,698 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 88,888 tons [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market faces adjustment pressure due to short - term expectation differences after the second round of Sino - US trade talks and the central political bureau meeting. It is recommended to wait and see for most products. For some products, short - term trading opportunities are presented based on their market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes are fluctuating downwards, with TMT remaining strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to adjustment pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure, and it is advisable to buy at low levels for post - decline recovery. Silver prices are fluctuating in the range of 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping**: The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short at high levels for contracts 08 and 10 [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are affected by market expectations, and iron ore follows steel price fluctuations. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on iron ore [2]. - **Coal and Coking**: For coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see; for coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but still recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure; for alumina, beware of squeeze - out risks; aluminum prices are narrowly fluctuating [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are facing downward pressure or weak volatility. For example, oil prices are in a range - bound pattern, and PX is under pressure. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Most agricultural products are in a state of weakening or fluctuating. Different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand and market conditions [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass, rubber, etc. are recommended to short at high levels; for industrial silicon, buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **New Energy**: For polysilicon, buy straddles/put options; for lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see carefully [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index showed a downward trend with fluctuations, while the TMT sector remained strong. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the market faced adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - Due to the decline in PMI and the fall of risk assets, the bond futures market continued to rise. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. - The impact of US tariffs on inflation continued to emerge. Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were under pressure. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [9][10]. - The main contract of container shipping futures declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. - Most non - ferrous metals were under pressure. Copper prices were affected by the disappointment of US copper tariff expectations; aluminum prices were affected by the off - season and macro factors; other non - ferrous metals also faced different supply - demand and macro challenges [17][22][28]. - Black metals showed different trends. Steel prices turned to a volatile state; iron ore prices fluctuated with steel prices; coking coal and coke prices fluctuated sharply, and there were concerns about short - term peaks [42][45][49]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybean meal was supported by import concerns; the price of live pigs was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate; the price of corn was in a range - bound state [57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the main indexes opened lower and declined with fluctuations. The TMT sector rose against the trend, while the pro - cyclical sectors fell collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and most of the basis of the main contracts was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: China's July official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index also decreased. Overseas, Trump announced new tariff policies [3]. - **Funding**: On July 31, the trading volume of the A - share market reached a new high, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank was 4.78 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference between market expectations and policies, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 28.32 billion yuan on July 31, with a net capital withdrawal of 4.78 billion yuan. After the cross - month period, the funding is expected to return to a loose state [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's July official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined, but still remained above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises maintained an expansion [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term to play the wave - repair market of bond futures and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: Trump reached a 90 - day short - term agreement with Mexico, maintaining the current tariffs. The US 6 - month core PCE price index increased year - on - year [7][8]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices rose and then fell, and silver prices were affected by the decline in the non - ferrous sector [9]. - **Funding**: Some funds continued to flow into ETFs, supporting the price [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of gold is expected to be under pressure in the short term and test the support of the 100 - day moving average. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 US dollars [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold at low levels and pay attention to the changes in silver's industrial demand [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 31, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline [11]. - **Index**: As of July 28, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 31, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [11]. - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the main contract price was driven down by the falling spot price [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the trading sentiment was average [13]. - **Macro**: Multiple important meetings were held, and the US 50% electrolytic copper tariff expectation was disappointed [14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate was restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper was expected to increase in July [15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand was resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16]. - **Logic**: The US copper tariff expectation was disappointed, and the non - US electrolytic copper market showed a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand", and the price was under pressure in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 77,000 to 79,000 yuan [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 31, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of aluminum oxide declined, and the basis decreased. There was a risk of short - squeeze due to the low warehouse receipts [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum was expected to decline in July [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream was in the traditional off - season, and the starting rates of various industries were generally stable or slightly decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased slightly [21]. - **Logic**: The aluminum price declined, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation was strong. The price was under pressure in the short term [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 20,200 to 21,000 yuan [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On July 31, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was average [25]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc was expected to increase in July [26]. - **Demand**: The starting rates of the three primary processing industries were differentiated, and the demand was affected by the price increase [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the production growth rate was lower than expected. The demand was affected by the price increase, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 22,000 to 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On July 31, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was dull [28]. - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased and increased respectively [29]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In June, the starting rate of solder decreased, and the demand showed a weak trend. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in Sino - US negotiations and Myanmar's post - resumption inventory [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly, and the production in July was expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless steel demand was general, and the production of nickel sulfate decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [32]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the nickel price was under pressure. The supply of nickel ore was relatively loose, and the stainless steel demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range adjustment in the short term [33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was loose, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome was weakly stable [34]. - **Supply**: In July, the estimated production of stainless steel decreased, and the production of 300 - series decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price declined, and the terminal demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a range shock in the short term [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract price is expected to range from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 31, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in July was expected to continue to increase. The recent supply was disturbed, and the production decreased last week [38]. - **Demand**: The demand was relatively stable, and the seasonal performance was weakened [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory began to decrease, the upstream inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate price was weak, and the trading core shifted to the ore end. The short - term supply uncertainty increased, and the price was expected to be in a wide - range shock [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and pay attention to the macro - expectation changes and supply adjustment [41]. Financial Derivatives - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price decreased significantly, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: The molten iron production was stable at a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The production of rebar decreased seasonally, and the production of hot - rolled coil remained high [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the seasonal decline was not significant [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mainstream steel products was stable at a low level, and the off - season inventory accumulation was less than expected [42]. - **Viewpoint**: The market expectation cooled down, and the steel price turned to a volatile state. It is recommended to go long on dips [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders remained unchanged [43]. - **Futures**: The 09 and far - month contracts of iron ore decreased [43]. - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [44]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the steel mill's profit rate increased [44]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased [44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average unloading volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [44]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price was expected to follow the steel price. It is recommended to go long cautiously on a single - side and long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil in an arbitrage [45]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price decreased significantly, and the spot auction price fluctuated. The Mongolian coal price decreased [46][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the domestic coking coal auction was good. The Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down [46][49]. - **Demand**: The coking operating rate was stable, the downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream replenishment increased [47][49]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory decreased rapidly, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased at a low level [48][49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal price fluctuated sharply. The spot market was relatively stable, and the futures price had over - expected increase. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price decreased, and the spot factory price increased, while the port trade price decreased. The mainstream coking enterprises initiated the fifth - round price increase [50][53]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan, and different regions had different profit situations [50]. - **Supply**: The coke production was stable, and the coal mine production recovery was less than expected [50][53]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly at a high level, and the downstream demand provided support [51][53]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory continued to decrease, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [52][53]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke price had a short - term price increase expectation, but there was a risk of peaking and falling back. It is recommended to wait and see for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [53]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the trading volume was small [55]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's soybean export volume in July was estimated, and China and the US held trade talks [55][56]. - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price was weak, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by import concerns. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs rebounded, and the prices in different regions increased [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet fattening decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [58][59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price was expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The near - month 09 contract had strong upward pressure, and the far - month contract was affected by policies [59][60]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly, and the trading was light [61]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of different links decreased, and the feed enterprise's inventory days decreased slightly [62]. - **Market Outlook**: The import corn auction continued, and the impact was weakened. The short - term market was range - bound, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation was different [62].