1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil production is decreasing while exports are increasing, which may support the performance of crude palm oil futures. It is likely to break through and reach the range of 4200 - 4250. In China, there is pressure for a strong shock or short - term correction after reaching a high level. After sideways consolidation around 8500 yuan, it may follow the Malaysian palm oil and reach the previous range of 8800 - 9000 yuan. - Regarding soybean oil, the bio - diesel policies are only proposals. CBOT soybean oil has risen by 8 cents, with a nearly 17% increase, and may have a short - term adjustment. In China, the basis quotation is under pressure due to increasing inventory and the off - season demand [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - The operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybeans have a fast planting progress but a lower good - quality rate. Brazilian soybean sales have declined recently while the crushing profit has recovered. - In China, the arrival volume, inventory of soybeans and bean meal are rising rapidly, and the basis is weak. However, the strength of US soybeans supports domestic bean meal prices. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [2]. 2.3 Corn Industry - In the long - term, the tight supply and increasing demand of corn support its price increase. In the short - term, the price is strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high level, and the market will remain volatile at a high level. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy releases [3][5]. 2.4 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is weak. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also weak [7][8]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply tends to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar price is also expected to be weak - oscillating due to factors such as increasing import profits and weak demand [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The strong basis of old cotton supports the cotton price, but the expected high yield of new cotton brings long - term pressure. The downstream demand has a marginal improvement but lacks a strong driving force. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is large, and the digestion of low - price eggs is okay while high - price eggs have a slow sales. It is expected that the egg price will decline slightly and then stabilize, and there may be some factors trying to boost the price in the later stage [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.36% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 7680 yuan, up 0.87%; the basis of Y2509 was 670 yuan, down 5.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8800 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.11% decrease; the futures price of P2509 was 8350 yuan, up 0.80%; the basis of P2509 was 450 yuan, down 14.45%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in September was 8872.7 yuan, up 0.31%, and the import profit was - 523 yuan, up 6.82% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan, up 120 yuan, a 1.54% increase; the futures price of O1509 was 9375 yuan, up 1.57%; the basis of O1509 was 525 yuan, up 0.96% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry - **Bean Meal**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan, down 30 yuan, a - 1.03% decrease; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.39% decrease; the basis of M2509 was - 154 yuan, up 27.27%. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in July was 197 yuan, down 8 yuan, a - 4.1% decrease [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.38% decrease; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan, up 6 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the basis of RM2509 was - 72 yuan, down 22.22%. The crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November was 14 yuan, down 62 yuan, a - 442.86% decrease [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4242 yuan, up 5 yuan, a 0.12% increase; the basis of the main soybean - one contract was - 282 yuan, down 1.77%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3686 yuan, up 29 yuan, a 0.79% increase; the basis of the main soybean - two contract was 1 yuan, down 2900.00% [2]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2397 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.08% decrease; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.42% increase; the basis was - 17 yuan, up 41.38%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 113 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 521 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2694 yuan, up 9 yuan, a 0.34% increase; the spot price in Changchun was 2720 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 26 yuan, down 25.71%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 84 yuan, up 9.68%. The profit of Shandong starch was - 68 yuan, up 18.07% [3]. 3.4 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis was 465 yuan, up 30 yuan, a 6.90% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2507 was 13340 yuan, up 35 yuan, a 0.26% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2509 was 13835 yuan, up 20 yuan, a 0.14% increase; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs was 495 yuan, down 15 yuan, a - 2.94% decrease [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 14300 yuan, up 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13850 yuan, down 100 yuan; etc. The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 146597, up 561, a 0.38% increase; the weekly white - meat price was 20.32 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease; the weekly piglet price was 27.14 yuan, down 0.9 yuan, a - 3.07% decrease; etc. [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Sugar 2601 was 5535 yuan, down 19 yuan, a - 0.34% decrease; the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5679 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.21% decrease; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.10 cents, a - 0.61% decrease; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 144 yuan, down 7 yuan, a - 5.11% decrease [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.17% increase; the spot price in Kunming was 6040 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 361 yuan, up 22 yuan, a 6.49% increase; the Kunming basis was 186 yuan, up 12 yuan, a 6.90% increase [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons, an 11.63% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons, a 26.07% increase; the national industrial sugar inventory was 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons, an 8.20% decrease; etc. [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13540 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the futures price of Cotton 2601 was 13545 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.57 cents/pound, down 1.07 cents, a - 1.58% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread of cotton was - 5 yuan, unchanged [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14756 yuan, down 6 yuan, a - 0.04% decrease; the CC Index of 3128B was 14857 yuan, down 5 yuan, a - 0.03% decrease; the FC Index: M: 1% was 13604 yuan, down 87 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 37.53 million tons, a - 9.8% decrease; the industrial inventory was 94.11 million tons, up 1.21 million tons, a 1.3% increase; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons, a - 33.3% decrease; etc. [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry - On June 18, 2025, the futures price of the Egg 09 contract was 3691 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan, a 1.15% increase; the futures price of the Egg 07 contract was 2956 yuan/500KG, up 101 yuan, a 3.54% increase; the egg - producing area price was 2.76 yuan/jin, up 0.68%; the basis was - 839 yuan/500KG, down 55 yuan, a - 7.05% decrease; the 9 - 7 spread was 735 yuan, down 59 yuan, a - 7.43% decrease [14].

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月19日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 服新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -2.77 | -0.99 | 59.8096 | 53.20% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -2.52 | 0.63 | 42.20% | 45.60% | | | IC期现价差 | -7.87 | -5.36 | 81.90% | 72.30% | | | IM期现价差 | -11.19 | 0.28 | 90.00% | 63.40% | | | 次月-当月 | -41.00 | 0.00 | 1.20% | 6.70% | | | 季月-崇月 | -70.60 | -1.20 | 10.6096 | 14.30% | | | 远月-当月 | -99.20 | 2.00 | 17.20% | 19.00% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - A-shares are stabilizing amidst fluctuations, and domestic risk assets are expected to attract more international capital inflows. The short - term trading volume has not expanded, and the market is mainly in a fluctuating state. [3] - The overall market sentiment for treasury bonds is relatively strong. For the unilateral strategy, treasury bonds can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract can be appropriately concerned. [3] - The prices of crude oil and precious metals have declined. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to weaken, the sold out - of - the - money call options on gold can be held. The upward drive has weakened, and the price has shifted to high - level consolidation. [3] - The EC main contract continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1900 - 2200. [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The lower support of the index is relatively stable, while the upward breakthrough pressure still exists. The negotiation of tariffs is still in the game. The Lujiazui Financial Forum reflects the development goals of opening up to the outside world and RMB internationalization. It is recommended to try selling the put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn the premium. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The mention of monetary policy in the Lujiazui Forum is less, and the policies expected by the market have not been implemented. But treasury bond futures have not shown an obvious correction. [3] - **Precious Metals**: The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected with a hawkish attitude. The risk - aversion sentiment has weakened, and the prices of crude oil and precious metals have fallen. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1900 - 2200. [3] Black Sector - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel products are deteriorating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the long - steel and short - raw material arbitrage operation. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The decline in molten iron production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has climbed to a high level. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. [3] - **Coking Coal**: The auction non - successful rate in the market has decreased, the coal mine start - up rate has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke. [3] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of a fourth - round price cut this week. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke. [3] - **Silicon Iron**: Pay attention to the cost changes, and the losses of manufacturers are intensifying. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds when the price reaches 5300 - 5400. [3] - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit situation in different production areas is differentiated, and the futures price is fluctuating at the bottom. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds when the price reaches 5700 - 5800. [3] Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The weak driving force continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a narrow range. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000. [3] - **Zinc**: The center of zinc price has moved down, and the inventory reduction provides support for the price. Pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 for the main contract. [3] - **Nickel**: The sentiment is低迷, and the futures price maintains a weak fluctuation. The fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 124000. [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The futures price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000. [3] - **Tin**: Under the strong reality, the tin price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of the supply side and adopt the strategy of shorting on highs based on the inflection points of inventory and import data. [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are still uncertain in the short term. In the long - term, the impact of fundamental factors on the market needs to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations. [3] - **Urea**: The futures price has short - term technical correction pressure, and the upward space of the futures price requires effective verification from the news. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and consider positive arbitrage at the arbitrage end. [3] - **PX**: Its own supply - demand is tight, and the cost side is strong. The short - term trend of PX is strong. Pay attention to the pressure above 7000 and the trend of oil prices. [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. PTA fluctuates strongly. Pay attention to the pressure around 5000. [3] - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA. [3] - **Bottle - chip**: During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle - chips, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. PR follows the cost fluctuation. [3] - **Ethanol**: The shutdown of the Iranian ethylene glycol plant has boosted the rise of ethylene glycol. Pay attention to the pressure of 4500 - 4550 for EG09 in the short term. [3] - **Styrene**: Short - term energy disturbances cause the futures price to fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of alumina has continuously declined, and the futures price is mainly searching for the bottom. [3] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and macro - disturbances have increased. The futures price consolidates at a low level. [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, BR has stopped falling and rebounded. BR2507 fluctuates in the range of 11000 - 12000 in the short term. [3] - **LLDPE**: The spot sentiment is good, and the upstream is holding up the price. It is regarded as bullish in the short term, and positive arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. [3] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, but the cost side has strong support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish in the medium term. [3] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian issue, the market's willingness to allocate long positions is strong. It is bullish in the short term, and positive arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal**: The rise of crude oil and US soybean oil supports US soybeans, and the soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. [3] - **Pig**: As the weather gets hotter, the demand is weak, and the pig price fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the performance around 13500. [3] - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the corn price fluctuates at a high level. It fluctuates around 2400 in the short term. [3] - **Oils**: Short - term oils may show a stagnant - rise and adjustment trend. P2509 may fluctuate around 8500 in the short term. [3] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds, with the reference range of 5600 - 5850. [3] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level around 13700. [3] - **Egg**: The spot market remains weak. The price rebounds from the bottom and then shows a short - selling trend after the rebound. [3] - **Apple**: The market is weak, and the trading volume is small. The main contract runs around 7600. [3] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short term. [3] - **Peanut**: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200. [3] - **Soda Ash**: The logic of oversupply continues. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of shorting on highs on rebounds. [3] Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The spot market sales have improved, and the short - term futures price has support. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Rubber**: The continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. The short positions above 14000 can continue to be held. [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream demand is expected to increase, and the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of increased production of polysilicon, and the futures price has declined with reduced positions. Short positions can continue to be held. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates and consolidates, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, with the expected seasonal reduction in shipments from New Zealand during winter, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand in the fundamentals. The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there are significant differences in the disk under the logic of subsequent delivery costs. There is limited upward space at the current position of the disk, and it is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short far - month contracts on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2507 contract closed at 795.5 yuan/cubic meter on June 18, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter (0.32%) from June 17; Log 2509 contract was at 795.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (-0.87%); Log 2511 contract was at 796.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.5 yuan/cubic meter (-1.18%) [2] - The 7 - 9 spread was 0.5 on June 18, up 9.5 from June 17; the 9 - 11 spread was - 1.5, up 2.5; the 7 - 11 spread was - 1.0, up 12.0 [2] - The 07 contract basis was - 45.5 yuan/cubic meter on June 18, up 7.5 from June 17; the 09 contract basis was - 45.0, up 17.0; the 11 contract basis was - 46.5, up 19.5 [2] - Spot prices of some radiata pine at Rizhao Port increased, with 3.9A small radiata pine up 20 yuan/cubic meter (2.82%), 3.9A medium radiata pine up 10 yuan/cubic meter (1.35%), and 3.9A large radiata pine up 10 yuan/cubic meter (1.20%) [2] - Some radiata pine and spruce spot prices at Taicang Port and Rizhao Port remained unchanged [2] - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged from June 13 to June 20 [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.188 on June 18, up 0.01 from June 17, with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 778.03 yuan, up 0.77 yuan (0%) [2] Supply: Monthly - The port shipment volume in May was 195.5 million cubic meters, up 22.8 million cubic meters (13.20%) from April. The number of ships at the port was 58.0, down 5.0 (-7.94%) [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 345 million cubic meters, up 6 million cubic meters (1.77%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 201.00 million cubic meters, up 4.96%; in Jiangsu, it was 113.31 million cubic meters, up 1.19% [3] Demand - As of June 13, the daily average log outbound volume in China was 5.98 million cubic meters, down 0.33 million cubic meters (-5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.30 million cubic meters, down 2%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, down 17% [3]

| 硅铁(SF509) | 5478 | 5290 | 188 | 3.55% | 81.80% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5750 | 5556 | 194 | 57.10% | 3.49% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 114 | 3100 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 2986 | 3.82% | 53.20% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 98 | 3200 | 3102 | 3.16% | 55.80% | 热卷 (HC2510) | | | | | | ਦੇਰੇ | 755 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 696 | 8.49% | 47.70% | 焦炭 (J2509) | 1347 | 13 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月19日 | | | | 移设 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1130 | 1130 | O | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1230 | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1070 | 1070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1290 | 1290 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1084 | 1081 | 3 | 0.28% | | | 玻璃2509 | 980 | 974 | 6 | 0.62% | | | 05基差 | 46 | 40 | -3 | -6.12% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn -15,751.0 -5,831.0 -11,431.0 -24,025.0 486.0 -1,259.0 926.0 -7,768.0 -30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 移仓为主，总持仓 基本持平 | 中信建投空头加仓千手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位多空增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 移仓为主，总持仓 基本持平 | 空头方中信及东证分别加仓、减仓 千手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 ...