| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3100 | -10 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | 221 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 191 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2979 | 2980 | -1 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2986 | 2986 | 0 | 104 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2979 | 2978 | 1 | 111 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 92 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3110 | -10 | 2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the current winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery. Recently, the futures market has mainly traded based on the delivery cost logic. With the support of delivery costs, the valuation of the 07 contract still has room for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short sell far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Contracts**: On June 19, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2507 contract closed at 798 yuan/m³, up 2.5 yuan/m³ (0.31%) from the previous day; the log 2509 contract was at 794 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan/m³ (- 0.13%); the log 2511 contract was at 791.5 yuan/m³, down 5 yuan/m³ (- 0.63%) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The 7 - 9 spread was 4 yuan/m³, up 3.5 yuan/m³; the 9 - 11 spread was 2.5 yuan/m³, up 4 yuan/m³; the 7 - 11 spread was 6.5 yuan/m³, up 7.5 yuan/m³. The 07 contract basis was - 48 yuan/m³, down 2.5 yuan/m³; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/m³, up 1 yuan/m³; the 11 contract basis was - 41.5 yuan/m³, up 5 yuan/m³ [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 19 compared with the previous day, with a 0% change. The ex - factory prices of imported logs in the international market also remained stable [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.193 yuan on June 19, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 778.59 yuan, up 0.56 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In May, the port freight volume was 195.5 million m³, up 22.8 million m³ (13.20%) from April. The number of departing ships was 58, down 5 (- 7.94%) from the previous month [2]. - **Weekly Inventory**: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million m³, up 6 million m³ (1.77%) from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 201 million m³, up 9.5 million m³ (4.96%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 113.31 million m³, up 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of June 13, the average daily log出库 volume in China was 5.98 million m³, down 0.33 million m³ (- 5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.3 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (- 2%), and in Jiangsu, it was 1.9 million m³, down 0.38 million m³ (- 17%) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices showed a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of Trump's policies. Some in the market believe that the current oil price has factored in a risk premium of about $10, and potential supply disruptions may push the oil price to break through further. - From a macro and fundamental perspective, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but anticipates two rate cuts this year, potentially stimulating the economy and boosting crude oil demand. Also, the largest decline in US crude oil inventories in a year last week supported the strong - side oscillation of oil prices. - In the short - term, the high - level oscillation trend is likely to continue, but market risks have increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the long side. Resistance levels are $75 - 76 for WTI, $78 - 79 for Brent, and 580 - 590 yuan for SC [51]. Methanol - Amid geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong sentiment for long - side allocation in the market. For ports, the import forecast has been revised down. If Iranian supply is interrupted, it may lead to the shutdown of supporting MTO plants or profit squeezing, potentially reducing production and alleviating the supply - demand contradiction at ports. It is necessary to monitor the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. - In the inland area, prices have slightly weakened, with the increase driven by the futures market. On the supply side, plant restarts have led to an increase in production, while demand is in the off - season, limiting the room for valuation expansion. A short - term positive spread strategy is recommended [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, recent开工 has declined, and the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has dropped to 83%. Although some production may resume as costs decline, the driving force for caustic soda is limited. The main alumina plants in Shandong have continuously lowered their purchase prices, weakening the drive for the spot market. Non - aluminum demand is weak, and inventory is not an effective driving factor. The current caustic soda spot price is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [57][58]. - For PVC, the short - term contradiction has not intensified further, and the price has strengthened due to the sharp increase in energy prices under geopolitical conflicts and the macro - sentiment. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent as the domestic real - estate sector is in a downward trend, dragging down terminal demand. With fewer maintenance plans in June and new plant startups in June - July, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a mid - term short - selling strategy [58]. Styrene - Market fluctuations mainly follow changes in crude oil and styrene futures. With downstream public tenders and low styrene inventory in commercial tanks, and the strong - side movement of oil prices, pure benzene's price only slightly followed due to its own supply - demand structure. Styrene port inventory has been declining, and spot supply is limited. Geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, strengthening the near - term basis. Although integrated styrene plants have restarted, most of the supply is for contract fulfillment, resulting in limited market - flowing goods. - It is necessary to pay attention to the possible weakening of styrene's supply - demand balance due to high profits. Styrene's valuation is likely to be restored through price declines considering pure benzene's inventory and import pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - side opportunities from the resonance of raw material prices in the medium - term [65]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - The sharp increase in oil prices has suppressed costs. Propylene and methanol have strengthened, while coal prices have shown a weak oscillation, compressing profits to a record low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory is differentiated (PP inventory accumulates, while PE inventory decreases). - Dynamically, there are many short - term PP maintenance plans, but new production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, leading to an increase in output. PE's start - up rate has increased, and more maintenance in mid - to late June may alleviate inventory accumulation. Demand is affected by the off - season and US tariffs, and the end of national subsidies at the beginning of the month has affected the demand for PP small household appliances. For PE, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for PP, a mid - term short - side strategy can be considered, while paying attention to the start - up situation of marginal production capacity (MTO, PDH) [68]. Urea - The core drivers are the concentration of exports and the sentiment boost caused by international geopolitical events, which are demand - side dominated. The Israel - Iran conflict has pushed up international prices, and the expected increase in exports has stimulated domestic buying sentiment, driving both futures and spot prices to rebound. - Secondary drivers include the high daily production on the supply side with potential support from local maintenance and the short - term positive impact of inventory reduction. Although industrial demand is weak and the agricultural sector is cautious, it has not reversed the upward trend. A cautiously bullish approach can be maintained in the short - term, and long positions can be established at low levels based on the export and inventory reduction logic. However, strict risk control is required as the basis has narrowed after the rapid price increase, and the futures market has shown over - buying signals [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Middle - East geopolitical news has continued to affect oil prices, and the significant reduction of 1.1 billion barrels in EIA crude oil inventories has supported oil prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short - term. Although PX supply has increased recently and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, the market is worried about raw material supply due to the escalation of Middle - East geopolitics, and the short - term supply - demand of PX is relatively tight. PX09 is expected to be strong in the short - term; it is recommended to wait and see on the 9 - 1 month spread of PX; and reduce positions at low levels for the strategy of narrowing the PX - SC spread. - **PTA**: PTA supply has increased significantly recently, and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, so the supply - demand is gradually weakening. However, due to the tight spot circulation and the rigid demand replenishment of some polyester factories, the short - term basis of PTA is still strong, but there is an expectation of decline. Affected by the strong oil prices and the tight supply - demand of PX, PTA is expected to be supported strongly in the short - term. TA is expected to be strong in the short - term, pay attention to the pressure above 5000 yuan; look for reverse - spread opportunities above 200 for TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - demand structure of MEG in June is still good. Although the supply of Saudi goods is expected to increase, the arrival of North American goods is limited, so both implicit and explicit inventories are expected to decrease. However, short - term demand is weak, and with the restart of MEG plants such as those in Saudi - China, Hengli, and Henan Coal Industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. Affected by the rising oil prices due to the Middle - East situation and the shutdown of some Iranian plants, MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 4600 yuan for EG09 in the short - term. - **Short - fiber**: The current supply - demand of short - fiber is generally weak. Due to the strong backwardation structure of PTA, the spot processing fee of short - fiber has been significantly compressed. Short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July. With low inventory in short - fiber factories and strong raw materials, the absolute price of short - fiber is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the processing fee is expected to be restored. The strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; focus on expanding the low - level PF processing fee on the futures market and pay attention to the implementation of production cuts later. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. According to CCF, since the end of May, Sanfangxiang has shut down 1 million tons of polyester bottle - chip production capacity, and other major bottle - chip manufacturers also plan to cut production at the end of June and early July. The supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower end of the range [79]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price and Spread Changes**: On June 20, compared with June 18, Brent rose by $2.15 to $78.85, a 2.80% increase; WTI rose by $0.22 to $75.36, a 0.29% increase; SC rose by 15.50 yuan to 574.50 yuan, a 2.77% increase. Various spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also showed significant changes [51]. - **Month - to - Month Structure**: There are data on the month - to - month structures of USDL, Gasoil, WTI, Dubai, RBOB, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [1][6][8]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On June 20, compared with June 18, MA2601, MA2509, and related spreads such as MA91 and the regional spreads of methanol all showed price and spread changes. For example, MA91 spread increased by 11 to 28, a 64.71% increase [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, methanol port inventory decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons, and methanol social inventory decreased by 7.52% to 95.4%. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises also changed, with the upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increasing by 3.06% to 77.44% [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed. For example, SH2509 decreased by 10 to 2288, a 0.4% decrease [57]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Caustic soda and PVC开工 rates, overseas quotations, export profits, and inventory data all showed changes. For example, the caustic soda industry开工 rate decreased by 2.6% to 85.7, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% to 35.5 million tons [57][58]. Styrene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as styrene in the spot and futures markets changed. For example, styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 to 8100, a 1.1% increase [62][63]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of domestic pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also showed changes. For example, styrene's start - up rate increased by 2.1% to 73.8, and styrene port inventory decreased by 11.5% to 9.3 million tons [65]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and related spreads, as well as spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE changed. For example, L2601 rose by 37 to 7399, a 0.50% increase [68]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories, as well as the start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises, changed. For example, PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6 [68]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of urea futures contracts, spot prices in different regions, and various spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1725, a 0.63% decrease [72]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and production enterprise order days changed. For example, domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.54% to 20.13 million tons, and domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49% to 113.60 million tons [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester industry chain, as well as various spreads and processing fees changed. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 10 to 7130, a 0.1% decrease [79]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as MEG inventory and arrival expectations, changed. For example, PTA开工率 increased by 2.9% to 82.6, and MEG port inventory decreased by 2.8% to 61.6 million tons [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The recent market sentiment is stable, and the market is mainly in a state of shock. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, due to the boost in processing output and the increase in lithium extraction from some spodumene, the balance may be in surplus. The short - term market is expected to operate in a weak range, but the profit - to - risk ratio of short - selling is weakening, and the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [1]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, but the sentiment in the spot market is low. The cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply remains loose, restricting the upside space. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to adjust through weak - range shock, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals remain weak. The ore end provides some price support, the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [5]. Tin - The supply - side recovery is slow. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Aluminum - For aluminum, the short - term upper limit is around 20,500 yuan, and the price is expected to be around 20,000 yuan with a fluctuating trend. If the actual demand weakens in the third quarter, the price may find support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan. For alumina, if the ore - end issues do not worsen, smelters may resume production after profit recovery, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase [8]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may remain in a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, zinc prices may decline. It is advisable to short at high levels in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [10]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong fundamentals limit the downward movement of prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside space. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 28,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 59,170 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 53,170 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The average CIF price of lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan from the previous value; the spread between 2507 and 2509 is 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the spread between 2507 and 2512 is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, a decrease of 2.34% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, an increase of 2.33%; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, a decrease of 12.41%. The demand for lithium carbonate in May was 93,938 tons, an increase of 4.81% [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 120,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The import profit and loss of nickel futures is - 3,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan [2]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 8,832 tons, an increase of 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% week - on - week, and social inventory decreased by 5.24% [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures spread is 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in April was 179.12 million tons, an increase of 0.36%; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 36 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of stainless steel increased by 10.26%, and the export volume decreased by 4.85% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin is 264,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%; the price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 264,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.38% [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [7]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The import volume of tin ore in April was 9,861 tons, an increase of 18.48%; the production of SMM refined tin in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37%. The import volume of refined tin in April was 1,128 tons, a decrease of 46.31% [7]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 3,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - The production of alumina in May was 727.21 million tons, an increase of 2.66%; the production of electrolytic aluminum in May was 372.90 million tons, an increase of 3.41%. The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in April was 25.05 million tons [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%; the import profit and loss is - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.62 yuan [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [10]. Fundamental Data - The production of refined zinc in May was 54.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.08%; the import volume of refined zinc in April was 2.82 million tons, an increase of 2.40%. The export volume of refined zinc in April was 0.25 million tons, an increase of 75.76% [10]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%; the import profit and loss is - 1,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 254.33 yuan [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of electrolytic copper in May was 113.83 million tons, an increase of 1.12%; the import volume of electrolytic copper in April was 25 million tons, a decrease of 19.06%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports increased by 8.76% week - on - week [13].

| | 尿素 | UR2509 | 验证 | 约压力位调整到1780-1800 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | bX | PX2509 | 自身供需偏紧叠加成本端偏强,短期PX走势偏强 | 短期偏强,关注7000以上压力及油价走势;PX- SC价差做缩策略低位减仓。 | | | PTA | TA2509 | 供需逐步转弱但成本端偏强,PTA偏强震荡 | 短期偏强,关注5000附近压力;TA9-1滚动反套 操作 | | 能源 | 短纤 | PF2508 | 工厂减产预期下,加工费存修复预期 | PF单边同PTA:PF盘面加工费低位做扩为主 | | 《工 | 瓶片 | PR2509 | 需求旺季,瓶片存减产预期,加工费或触底反弹,PR跟随成本 波动 | PR单边同PTA: PR主力盘面加工费预计在350- 600元/吨区间波动,关注区间下沿做扩机会 | | | 乙醇 | EG2509 | 伊朗乙二醇装置停车,提振乙二醇上涨 | 短期EG09关注4500-4550压力 | | | 苯乙烯 | EB2507 | 短期能源扰动盘面震荡反复,关注中期矛盾 | 建议暂观望:中期关 ...

| 79.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF509) | 5478 | 5310 | 168 | 3.16% | 5750 | 5584 | 166 | 52.90% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 2.97% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 104 | 3.48% | 3090 | 2986 | 50.00% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 87 | 3190 | 52.30% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3103 | 2.80% | | | | | | 57 | 755 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 698 | 8.10% | 46.10% | 1374 | -27 | 焦炭 (J2509) ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月20日 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | 机关 | 品种 | 较前一日变化 | 53.40% | F期现价差 | -2.69 | 0.08 | 60.20% | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -6.32 | -3.80 | 30.70% | 32.60% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | 86.10% | 0.97 | 8.84 | 92.20% | 90.00% | IM期刊价差 | 2.18 | 13.36 | 84.00% | | -1.00 | 0.80% | 6.50% | 次月-3月 | -42.00 | 李月-景日 | 7.70% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - **Coke**: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, on June 19, 2025, covering aspects such as total positions, main contract positions, and changes in the positions of the top 20 long and short seats [1][4][10][15][20] Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total position change: On June 19, the total position of the IF variety increased by 4,729 hands, while the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 18,151 hands [4] - Top 20 long - seat position changes: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,799 hands. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,174 hands, and Zhongtai Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 323 hands [5] - Top 20 short - seat position changes: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,292 hands. China Merchants Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,987 hands, and Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 141 hands [7] IH (SSE 50) - Total position change: On June 19, the total position of the IH variety increased by 2,290 hands, while the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 8,837 hands [10] - Top 20 long - seat position changes: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,672 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 969 hands, and Galaxy Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 213 hands [10] - Top 20 short - seat position changes: Among the top 20 short seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,841 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,104 hands, and CICC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 494 hands [11] IC (CSI 500) - Total position change: On June 19, the total position of the IC variety increased by 8,682 hands, while the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 13,728 hands [15] - Top 20 long - seat position changes: Among the top 20 long seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,413 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 2,935 hands, and Huatai Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 413 hands [15] - Top 20 short - seat position changes: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,689 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 2,346 hands, and J.P. Morgan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 565 hands [16] IM (CSI 1000) - Total position change: On June 19, the total position of the IM variety increased significantly by 14,528 hands, while the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 31,422 hands [20] - Top 20 long - seat position changes: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,526 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 5,705 hands, and Xingzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 522 hands [20] - Top 20 short - seat position changes: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 61,716 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 4,795 hands, and Huawen Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 652 hands [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. Although the ore end provides some price support, the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable, production remains high, and demand improvement is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating. The fundamental pressure remains, but the tight near - month warehouse receipts provide support. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand expectations. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the long - term, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term downward adjustment space of the futures price is limited, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term price may reach around 20,500 yuan/ton, and in the third quarter, there is downward pressure, with the lowest support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. 1 imported nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The LME 0 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the futures import profit and loss improved by 5.75% [1]. Electrowinning Cost - The cost of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods for producing electrowinning nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.36%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE, social, and LME inventories all decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 11.54% [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%. The price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month. Imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85%. Social inventories increased by 2.04% [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.42 - 0.47% [6]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. Total inventory increased by 1.49%, downstream inventory decreased by 6.47%, and smelter inventory increased by 8.54% [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.11%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 20.74% [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, refined tin production decreased by 2.37%. SHEF and LME inventories changed [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%. The import profit and loss improved by 1.10% [10]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%. Galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide开工率 changed. Social and LME inventories decreased [10]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%. The average price of alumina decreased slightly [13]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41%. Aluminum product开工率 decreased, and social and LME inventories decreased [13]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%. The import profit and loss decreased [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%. Import copper concentrate index decreased, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory increased. Electrolytic copper and recycled copper制杆开工率 changed, and inventories in different locations changed [14].